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Jurickson Profar

MLBTR Podcast: Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Jurickson Profar Receives 80-Game PED Suspension

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Major League Baseball has announced that Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar has been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Reporter Mike Rodriguez first relayed that Profar was to get a suspension due to a positive test. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed that it would be a PED suspension. Profar will be able to return during the season but won’t be eligible for the playoffs this year, as is true for all players in the year they serve a PED suspension.

MLB announced the suspension with the following statement: “The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball announced today that Atlanta Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar has received an 80-game suspension without pay after testing positive for Chorionic Gonadotrophin (hCG), a performance enhancing substance, in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension of Profar is effective immediately.”

The team also released a statement: “We were surprised and extremely disappointed to learn that Jurickson Profar tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Prevention and Treatment Program. We fully support the Program and are hopeful that Jurickson will learn from this experience.”

Profar himself also released a statement through the MLBPA: “Braves fans, Today is the most difficult day of my baseball career. I am devastated to announce that I have been suspended for 80 games by Major League Baseball and the Commissioner’s office, for testing positive for a banned substance this offseason. This is especially painful for me because anyone who knows me and has seen me play knows I am deeply passionate about the game. There is nothing I love more than competing with my teammates and being a fan favorite. I want to apologize to the entire Braves organization, my teammates, and the fans. It is because of my deep love and respect for this game that I would never knowingly do anything to cheat it. I have been tested my entire career, including eight times last season alone, and have never tested positive. I would never willingly take a banned substance, but I take full responsibility and accept MLB’s decision. I am devastated that I won’t be on the field with my teammates for the next 80 games. I look forward to competing again at the highest level this season upon my return.”

The news will immediately cast a new light on Profar’s breakout campaign in 2024. A former top prospect, his big league career had been fairly inconsistent. His plate discipline had always been good, with above average strikeout and walk rates throughout most of his career, but generally with a lack of impact. At the end of the 2023 season, he had appeared in 961 big league games and was sitting on a .238/.322/.383 battling line. That production translated to a 92 wRC+, indicating he had been 8% worse than league average overall.

His stock had fallen far enough that he settled for a $1MM deal with the Padres going into 2024, barely above last year’s $740K league minimum salary. He went on to have the best season of his career at the age of 31. He hit 24 home runs for the Friars while drawing walks at an 11.4% clip and striking out just 15.1% of the time. His .280/.380 /.459 batting line translated to a 139 wRC+, easily the best of his career. Relative to 2023, his average exit velocity jumped from 86.5 miles per hour to 91.1. His hard hit rate went from 31.8% to 44.4%. In general, just about everything on his Statcast page got redder.

That made him a much hotter commodity this past offseason. He got interest from clubs like the Mets, Royals, Blue Jays and Astros before signing a three-year, $42MM deal with Atlanta in January. This news will naturally lead the baseball world to re-evaluate that breakout season.

Presumably, Atlanta had no idea about Profar’s test when they signed him or they wouldn’t have done the deal. Still, it will be a massive headache for them and looks like a big waste of resources. The club took a very measured approach this winter, seemingly working under specific financial restraints. They flipped Jorge Soler and the remainder of his contract to the Angels as soon as the offseason began. They later turned down a reasonable club option on Travis d’Arnaud. They renegotiated the contracts of Reynaldo López and Aaron Bummer, in both cases kicking a bit of money from 2025 to 2026.

In hindsight, it seems the club was trying to get the payroll down to a specific level and get themselves under the competitive balance tax. Per RosterResource, their CBT number is currently around $234MM. That’s about $7MM shy of this year’s $241MM base threshold, leaving them a bit of wiggle room to make in-season moves and reset their tax status this year. Assuming they indeed follow through on that, they could go into 2026 as “first-time” payors, after paying the tax in 2023 and 2024.

Around the frugal moves, Profar was their one big splash. They didn’t give out another deal worth more than $1.5MM. The outfield was an obvious target area. Last year’s acquisition of Jarred Kelenic didn’t work out, as he hit .231/.286/.393 in his first season in Atlanta. Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his left ACL in May and missed the remainder of the season. They made midseason acquisitions of Soler and Ramón Laureano but both were dispatched this winter for financial reasons. Soler was flipped to the Angels for Griffin Canning, with Canning later non-tendered. Laureano, who was projected for a $6.1MM salary, was himself non-tendered.

Considering all of that, it’s obviously a less than ideal development. The club tried to walk a fine line all winter, pinching pennies while hopefully keeping themselves in position to compete in 2025. Amid several subtractions, Profar was their most aggressive addition. Now he’s going to be out of action for a long while and it’s anyone’s guess what form he will be in when he comes back. He won’t be eligible for postseason play this year regardless.

He won’t be paid while serving his suspension, saving the club a bit of money, but they have few options for redirecting those funds now that the season has started. The team will now have to improvise a way to proceed. Harris is still a strong option in center but the corner options aren’t incredibly inspiring. Kelenic figures to get plenty of playing time, though as mentioned, he struggled last year and has a .154/.154/.385 line so far this year. Bryan De La Cruz and Eli White are also on the active roster. Stuart Fairchild was claimed off waivers today and will join the club shortly. Carlos Rodriguez is on the 40-man but on optional assignment.

In time, that picture should improve. Alex Verdugo was signed just over a week ago. He agreed to be optioned for now so that he could ramp up after missing spring training and should join the club in the coming weeks. Acuña could potentially be reinstated off the injured list in May. Profar will eventually return from this suspension but won’t be postseason eligible. Players on other clubs could become available as the trade deadline nears.

Nonetheless, it’s a gut check for a club that is already reeling a bit. They lost their first four games, getting swept by Profar’s old club in San Diego. There’s still a long season ahead, but they were set for a tough battle in a packed NL East. As mentioned, they tried to walk a tightrope this winter by cutting spending but still competing. Profar was the jewel of that offseason but the shine has come off real fast.

Photo courtesy of Mike Lang, Imagn Images.

Jurickson Profar Suffers Bone Bruise In Left Wrist

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TODAY: Profar’s CT scan revealed a bone bruise on his left wrist, Bowman reports.  While a painful injury, the team expects Profar should be ready for Opening Day.

MARCH 8: Braves left fielder Jurickson Profar suffered what the club described as a jammed left wrist during today’s Grapefruit League game with the Pirates.  Profar suffered the injury while trying to make a diving catch of a line drive in the fourth inning, and the outfielder was in obvious discomfort in the aftermath of the play.

X-rays were negative on Profar’s wrist, and Braves team trainer George Poulis told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman) that there is hope that Profar has avoided any more serious injury.  The final diagnosis won’t be known for certain, however, until Profar undergoes an MRI to check for structural damage.

Profar was the Braves’ biggest offseason acquisition, as his huge 2024 season with the Padres resulted in a three-year, $42MM free agent deal from Atlanta.  Profar has been rather notoriously inconsistent during his MLB career, but he delivered his best numbers at age 31 and in his 11th season in the Show.  Signed to just a $1MM guaranteed last winter, Profar exploded for 24 home runs and a .280/.380/.459 slash line over 668 plate appearances with the Padres, earning All-Star and Silver Slugger recognition.

Since Ronald Acuna Jr. will miss some time at the start of the season recovering from his torn ACL, signing Profar was a logical way for the Braves to bolster their outfield ranks.  The plan was to have Profar and Michael Harris II play every day in left and center field, with Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz platooning in right field until Acuna is healthy, though if Profar now has to miss any time, Kelenic and De La Cruz could be bumped up to regular status in the corner outfield slots.  Eli White could get more playing time in this scenario, and non-roster invitees Jake Marisnick or Conner Capel might have a path to the Opening Day roster if Profar winds up on the injured list.

Losing Profar to the IL would be another blow to Atlanta’s everyday lineup.  Beyond Acuna still being on the mend, Sean Murphy broke a rib after hit by a pitch last week, leaving the starting catcher out of action for the next 4-6 weeks.  Top catching prospect Drake Baldwin is available as Murphy’s likely fill-in, but filling a hole in the outfield is trickier since the Braves were already lacking depth on the grass with Acuna out.

Royals Made Three-Year Offer To Santander Before Jays Deal

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The Royals have been searching for a middle-of-the-order bat throughout the offseason. Anthony Santander was evidently one such target. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Kansas City made Santander a three-year, $66MM offer that included unspecified deferrals and would’ve allowed him to opt out after the second season.

Of course, Santander declined that proposal in favor of a five-year deal with the Blue Jays. That was initially reported as a $92.5MM contract, though extreme deferrals dramatically cut the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, Santander’s deal with Toronto was valued just below $68.6MM. He can opt out of that contract after three seasons, though the Jays could override that by preemptively exercising a 2030 club option.

The deferrals in Kansas City’s offer would have also trimmed its net present value to some extent. Without specifics, it’s impossible to know the exact NPV. However, it’s likely that K.C.’s offer would have had a stronger average annual value than the approximate $13.7MM mark on his contract with Toronto. Santander’s decision to go to Toronto could be a matter of timing more than anything else. Rosenthal writes that the switch-hitting slugger was already “committed” to the Jays once Kansas City made its strongest offer.

A few days after Santander came off the board, Jurickson Profar inked a three-year deal with the Braves. He received a $42MM guarantee. The Royals had been tied to Profar as far back as November. Rosenthal writes that the Royals were unwilling to go to three years on Profar, who turns 32 next month. Santander and Profar were the two big remaining unsigned outfielders.

Kansas City reallocated some of the money they were prepared to invest in the outfield to the bullpen. The Royals finalized a two-year, $22MM deal with back-end reliever Carlos Estévez this evening. That pushed their projected Opening Day payroll to roughly $132MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. RosterResource estimated last year’s season-ending payroll around $114MM, though Rosenthal writes that it was closer to $118MM. In either case, the Royals have added around $15-20MM to their books. They’ve also re-signed Michael Wacha for $51MM over three years, re-signed Michael Lorenzen on a $7MM pact, and swapped Brady Singer for Jonathan India.

The pitching staff looks excellent. K.C. had one of the best rotations in MLB last season. That should be the case again with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Wacha returning at the front end. Kyle Wright should be back from shoulder surgery, while they could get a full season out of Kris Bubic after he pitched in relief upon his return from Tommy John surgery. Estévez pairs with last year’s big deadline pickup, Lucas Erceg, at the back of what should be a stronger bullpen.

There’s less depth in the lineup. India will be an upgrade over Maikel Garcia at the top of the order. Kansas City hasn’t found the big bat they’d hoped to plug behind Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. They again have one of the weakest outfields on paper. MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe project as their starters in the corners, while Kyle Isbel will get the bulk of the center field work.

India and Michael Massey will divide time at second base and could each see some action in left field. Rosenthal writes that the Royals plan to give the righty-hitting Garcia reps in center field against left-handed pitching, essentially as a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Isbel. Garcia has never started a major league game in the outfield. He’s a plus athlete with good speed, though, so it’s not all that surprising that the Royals are open to letting him roam the outfield on occasion.

MLBTR Podcast: Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will Ben Cherington get the Pirates a right fielder before spring training? (21:10)
  • What is holding up Jack Flaherty’s market? (23:15)
  • Why is the MLB offseason so different from the other sports? (29:00)
  • Is there a common thread with the unsigned free agents? (32:50)
  • Brett Baty to the Padres and Luis Arráez to the Mets, straight up, no money changing hands. Who says no? (38:45)
  • News of the Pirates signing Adam Frazier breaks during recording (39:25)
  • Back to the Baty-Arráez question (39:50)
  • Should the Cubs get Michael King from the Padres and what would the cost be? (42:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mets Had Interest In Jurickson Profar Prior To Braves Deal

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Outfielder Jurickson Profar landed with the Braves this week on a three-year, $42MM deal. Prior to that signing, he had interest from several clubs. On The Baseball Insiders podcast, Robert Murray lists the Blue Jays, Astros, Royals, Padres and Mets as teams that were in Profar’s market. Those first four club were connected to Profar in previous rumors but the Mets’ interest is new.

The Mets have already made a few tweaks to their outfield mix this winter. One of them was the massive Juan Soto deal, though they also acquired Jose Siri from the Rays. As of now, the group feels a bit crowded. Siri and Tyrone Taylor could share center field and fourth outfield duties while Soto and Brandon Nimmo are clear regulars in the corners. Starling Marte and Jesse Winker are also on the roster and perhaps profile best as designated hitters but both are still capable of playing the outfield somewhat.

Back in December, the Mets reportedly offered Teoscar Hernández a two-year deal, indicating a willingness to add to the outfield. However, that was before Winker was re-signed. The fact that they apparently hung around the Profar market even with Winker on the roster suggests a willingness to continue adding.

Given that the group is already a bit crowded, that would likely have to come with subtraction. Marte has been in trade rumors this winter with the Mets reportedly willing to pay down part of his salary. He is set to make $19.5MM this year in the final season of his four-year contract. No club is going to take on all of that. Marte is now 36 years old and has battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, which has led to declining defensive metrics. His offense was rough in 2023 but bounced back to roughly league average last year.

With Nimmo and Soto set to be in the corners, perhaps the idea was to have Profar be the designated hitter fairly regularly while occasionally taking the field to give Nimmo or Soto a break. Profar’s defensive metrics in left field aren’t strong, with -9 Defensive Runs Saved and -24 Outs Above Average in his career, so perhaps that would have been a good deployment of his bat. Hernández is also not a great defender, so perhaps the thinking was the same there. Nimmo has played lots of center field in his career but his marks up the middle have been declining and he’s about to turn 32, so it seems unlikely that was a strong consideration.

It’s also possible that Profar could have seen some time at first base. That hasn’t been his primary position but he does have 466 career innings there, spread out across various seasons. As has been well documented by now, the Mets and Pete Alonso have been in a staredown of sorts this winter and he remains unsigned.

The Mets seem to have some hesitancy about committing long-term to Alonso when they also want to have opportunities available for guys like Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. Adding Profar was perhaps a bit of a better fit in that regard, since his ability to play the outfield would make him a slightly more versatile part of the roster compared to Alonso.

If the Mets have interest in other outfielders, there isn’t anyone of Profar’s caliber left in free agency. Soto, Profar, Hernández, Anthony Santander, Tyler O’Neill and others have come off the board this winter. Most of the remaining free agents are role players like Harrison Bader, Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha. If the Mets just want a bat, reuniting with Alonso is one straightforward path, though guys like J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner are out there. Guys like Luis Arráez, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Rhys Hoskins could potentially be available on the trade market.

RosterResource projects the club for a $297MM payroll and $293MM competitive balance tax number. Last year, they got those numbers to $336MM and $346MM respectively, so the club could still have some powder dry for a late strike if they are willing to get to similar levels.

Braves Notes: Profar, Kelenic, De La Cruz, Pitching Staff

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The Braves finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, coming to terms with Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $42MM contract that’ll install him as their new everyday left fielder. Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos confirmed in chatting with the Braves beat yesterday that Profar will be ticketed for regular work in left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz (who signed a split major league deal earlier this winter) competing for at-bats in right field (link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).

Profar told reporters via Zoom this morning that landing with the Braves is a near-ideal scenario. As a native of Curacao, he grew up idolizing countryman Andruw Jones and watching him with the Braves. He’ll now be united with friend and countryman Ozzie Albies with those same Braves. Profar indicated that as soon as free agency began, his top two preferences were to remain in San Diego or sign in Atlanta (via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The Padres, who are dealing with a payroll crunch and ownership infighting, never came close to Atlanta’s offer at any point in free agency, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

With Profar slated for everyday work in left field and Michael Harris II in center, that leaves right field as the only place for Kelenic and De La Cruz to get playing time early in the season. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be back to man right field eventually but is expected to miss more than a month of the season as he finishes off rehabbing last year’s torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. A platoon is possible, but Anthopoulos made clear that Kelenic “will get a lot of reps in right field” this spring and “will have every opportunity to be that guy.”

Kelenic, 25, came to the Braves by way of a convoluted series of salary dump trades last year. The former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect was effectively purchased from the Mariners, with Atlanta taking on the underwater contracts of first baseman Evan White and lefty Marco Gonzales to get Kelenic to Atlanta. Gonzales was subsequently traded to the Pirates, who took on about $3MM of his $12MM salary. White was shipped to Anaheim in return for another pair of underwater contracts: David Fletcher and Max Stassi. The Braves quickly flipped Stassi to the White Sox for a player to be named later, agreeing to pay the bulk of Stassi’s salary. When factoring in the dead money they absorbed and the associated luxury tax hits, they spent around $32MM to acquire Kelenic.

Suffice it to say, year one of the gambit didn’t play out as hoped. Kelenic got out to a decent start in April, slumped in May, had a monster showing in June, and then tanked for the majority of the final three months. On the whole, he hit .231/.286/.393. His 15 homers were a new career-high, but he also fanned in almost 30% of his plate appearances while providing slightly below-average defense in the outfield and slashing only .206/.236/.279 against lefties.

That anemic performance against southpaws is where De La Cruz could come into play. The longtime Marlin and brief Pirate was non-tendered earlier this winter and quickly scooped by by Atlanta. De La Cruz makes for an odd platoon partner for Kelenic, however. His right-handed bat is very clearly more productive versus lefties than the lefty-swinging Kelenic, but De La Cruz has still been a below-average hitter against southpaws in his career: .270/.315/.390 (92 wRC+). Considering Kelenic has only been about average versus righties in his career, it’s an underwhelming platoon unless one or both players take a substantial step forward.

That shouldn’t be a long-term issue, of course. Acuña should be back sometime in May or June. At that point, the Braves can rely on a Profar-Harris-Acuña alignment from left to right. Kelenic, whom Anthopoulos praised as an option capable of playing all three outfield spots, could then slide into more of a fourth outfield role with De La Cruz serving as a depth option in Triple-A.

With the outfield largely settled, the question of what’s next for the Braves naturally arises. Anthopoulos said last night that he has the flexibility needed to add to the rotation and/or bullpen (via David O’Brien of The Athletic). No deal in either department is close, however, and the veteran baseball ops leader emphasized that any rotation arm that’s brought in would need to be a decisive upgrade over in-house arms like Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson. Both are out of minor league options and thus very likely ticketed for roster spots to begin the season. O’Brien speculates that Atlanta will add a reliever and forgo a prominent rotation acquisition.

The Braves currently have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach in the top three spots of the rotation. Spencer Strider will return at some point in the season’s first half after undergoing UCL surgery last April. Depth options in Triple-A include Davis Daniel, Bryce Elder and prospects Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver. Once Strider returns, that’s a lot of arms for what’s effectively one rotation spot — assuming good health for each of Sale, Lopez and Schwellenbach.

As O’Brien suggested then, a bullpen addition makes a bit more sense. The Braves will likely be without Joe Jimenez all season after the right-hander underwent knee surgery, subtracting a key piece of their late-inning relief group. With Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee all on board, there’s still a strong high-leverage foundation, but there’s plenty of room to add a reliever and still remain under the luxury tax threshold, if that’s a goal.

RosterResource currently projects the Braves for a bit more than $230MM of tax obligations, leaving them nearly $11MM from the $241MM threshold. Notable unsigned relievers who could fit into that budget include Kyle Finnegan, Phil Maton, Andrew Chafin, Danny Coulombe, Tim Hill and injury rebound candidates such as Kendall Graveman, Lou Trivino and Keynan Middleton. If the Braves are willing to cross the tax threshold for a third straight season (or engineer a trade to clear up a bit more breathing room), names like Carlos Estevez and David Robertson remain available on the market.

Braves Sign Jurickson Profar

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The Braves announced that they have signed free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42MM deal. The MVP Sports Group client will make $12MM this year and then $15MM in each of the next two seasons. Atlanta designated right-hander Connor Gillispie in a corresponding move.

Profar, 32, has been wildly inconsistent in his career but is coming off his best season. Once a top prospect with the Rangers, he made it to the majors as a 19-year-old but struggled in his first few seasons. He eventually showed some promise but frustratingly alternated between good and bad seasons.

He had one of those down seasons in 2023, which is why the Padres were able to sign him last offseason for just $1MM, barely above the league minimum. The Padres probably couldn’t have dreamed about the return on investment they would eventually get from that.

Profar got into 158 games and stepped to the plate 668 times. His 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were both strong numbers but fairly normal for him. He managed to do more damage when he connected, without sacrificing any of his trademark plate discipline. His 24 home runs were a career high. The three numbers in his .280/.380/.459 slash line were all personal bests as well, apart from a .471 slugging percentage in his nine-game debut back in 2012. His 139 wRC+ easily eclipsed his previous personal high of 113 and was also put him in the top 15 among qualified hitters last year. The switch-hitter did that damage from both sides of the plate, with a 137 wRC+ as a lefty and 147 as a righty.

Given his capricious production over the years, it would be fair to be a bit skeptical that he could keep that kind of performance going. However, there are some encouraging numbers under the hood. Profar’s 44.8% hard hit hate rate, 91.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 7.2% barrel rate were all significantly better than anything he had done before. His .302 batting average on balls in play was a career high but just a bit above the .291 league average.

Though Profar has played all over the diamond in his career, he’s mostly a left fielder now. He’s barely played the other outfield slots in his career. He hasn’t really been an infield regular since 2019. He logged just 18 innings at first base last year, the only place he played apart from left field during the campaign.

Profar’s work in left hasn’t been especially well regarded. Last year, he was given a grade of -8 from Defensive Runs Saved and -6 from Outs Above Average. Despite that, thanks to his huge offense and ten stolen bases, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season.

That production was huge for the Padres, given that they had notable financial restraints, which is why they took that $1MM flier on Profar. They surely would have welcomed him back, given the longstanding ties between Profar and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. However, their financial situation is perhaps even more grim now than it was a year ago. They reportedly need to make significant cuts to the budget while also looking for solutions on the roster. In addition to Profar’s absence in left, they have question marks behind the plate, in the rotation and at shortstop.

Profar has also expressed a fondness for San Diego and probably wanted to go back, but he also probably recognized that this is probably his best chance at a free agent payday. He had previously signed a three-year, $21MM deal with the Padres going into 2021 but opted out of that pact after two years. He settled for modest one-year deals in the past two offseasons but has now secured himself a strong three-year deal. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $45MM deal for him at the start of the offseason.

For Atlanta, outfield has stood out as a clear area for improvement this winter. Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last year and missed the second half of the season. He’ll be back in right field at some point in 2025 but probably not on Opening Day. Players like Ramón Laureano and Jorge Soler were used to cover for Acuña’s absence but jettisoned after the season. Soler was flipped to the Angels while Laureano was non-tendered. The club’s acquisition of Jarred Kelenic last offseason also didn’t go especially well. He struck out 29.6% of the time and hit .231/.286/.393 for a wRC+ of 86.

Time will tell how the club plans to play it once everyone is healthy. Michael Harris II will be in center but Atlanta has its designated hitter spot committed to Marcell Ozuna. Profar and Kelenic can flank Harris for now but Acuña will eventually be back. The lefty-swinging Kelenic has better numbers against righties but the club presumably isn’t giving the Profar $42MM to be a short-side platoon guy.

Perhaps Kelenic will eventually get pushed into a fourth outfielder role once Acuña is back, though he may have a bit of time to prove himself worthy of more. Ozuna is an impending free agent, so perhaps the foursome of Harris, Acuña, Profar and Kelenic can better co-exist in 2026 and beyond. Kelenic does have an option remaining, so some time in the minors is possible as well.

With Profar now in the fold, RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s payroll at $212MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM. The latter is $11MM shy of this year’s base threshold. They opened last year at $223MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has previously said that he expects payroll to rise and that the club is willing to pay the tax again this year. However, most of his moves have been focused on adding financial breathing room. As mentioned, Soler was flipped in a salary dump and Laureano was cut. Travis d’Arnaud had his club option turned down. The club restructured the contracts of Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to kick some money down the road.

If there is still some powder dry, then perhaps Atlanta will pivot to adding some pitching in the coming weeks. They were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier in the winter and reportedly had an agreement in place with Jeff Hoffman, with Hoffman to be stretched out as a starter, before they grew concerned by something they saw in his shoulder during his physical. They were also connected to reliever Tanner Scott earlier in the winter. All those guys have signed elsewhere but the interest indicates Atlanta is looking to add to the staff.

For clubs still looking for outfield help, the market is essentially out of everyday players now. Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Tyler O’Neill and Profar are now all off the board. The best remaining outfielders are role players like Harrison Bader, Randal Grichuk and Alex Verdugo. Clubs like the Royals, Astros and Blue Jays have been connected to Profar this winter, though the Jays signed Santander earlier this week.

Gillispie, 27, just signed a non-guaranteed contract with Atlanta in November. He made his major league debut with Cleveland last year but only logged eight innings and was non-tendered at season’s end. In his minor league career, he has thrown 426 1/3 innings with a 4.01 earned run average, 24.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Atlanta will have one week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next for him. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any potential trade talks would have to come together in the next five days.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the agreement between Atlanta and Profar.

Poll: Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?

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After more than a decade in the majors, Jurickson Profar finally lived up to his top prospect billing in 2024, his age-31 season. The switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and an NL-leading 18 hit-by-pitches. He did just about everything well, posting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and above-average power numbers. His 139 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters, while his 4.3 FanGraphs WAR placed him among the top 25 position players in either league. Even better, his Statcast expected metrics matched his actual output; his .364 xwOBA put him in the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. With numbers like that, it was no surprise that Profar started for the NL All-Stars in the summer and collected a Silver Slugger at the end of the year.

Profar turns 32 next month, and his age, along with his spotty track record from 2012-23, will limit his earning potential in free agency. That’s why he ranked below fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, despite outperforming both of them in wRC+ and fWAR last season. Nonetheless, the possibility that he could repeat his All-Star performance in 2025 should entice several suitors, and for that reason, Profar is easily the top outfielder still available on the free agent market. What’s more, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, along with the fact that he is not saddled with the qualifying offer or seeking a particularly long-term commitment (he’s eyeing a three-year deal) should make him a good fit for any team in need of an impact bat in a corner outfield spot.

Indeed, with Santander off the market, the Profar rumor mill has picked up in recent days. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “a number of teams” are interested in his services, including the Blue Jays and Astros. After signing Santander, Toronto is set in the corner outfield department with Santander in left field and George Springer in right. However, the Jays could still use another bat, and they could facilitate the addition of Profar by rotating Profar, Santander, and Springer between the corner outfield and the DH spots. GM Ross Atkins recently made it clear the Blue Jays have money left to spend this winter as they strive to return to contention after a disappointing 2024. There is no doubt that Profar would help them move toward that goal.

As for the Astros, they could desperately use some more thump in the outfield after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. With manager Joe Espada on the record that Houston would like to limit Yordan Alvarez’s playing time in the field, the club’s current outfield options include Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell. As I wrote back in December, “It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.” Thus, it’s easy to see how Profar fits into the picture. The only question is if GM Dana Brown has the payroll flexibility to make such a signing. Earlier this month, KPRC’s Ari Alexander reported the Astros were “unlikely” to sign Santander because it would require a contract that would put them “well into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive season.” Profar won’t command quite as high of a salary, but the Astros are already above the first luxury tax threshold as it is (per RosterResource). So, Brown might need to make a trade to clear some payroll before he can pursue any more free agent additions. Offloading Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary from the books would surely help.

While Feinsand did not name any other suitors, the Royals are one more team that has been linked to Profar this winter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected the two sides back in November, writing that the Royals had “their eye on” the left fielder. However, there hasn’t been much smoke to that fire since, and Sherman’s report came before Kansas City traded for Jonathan India. Still, the Royals continue to seek another impact bat for their lineup. Although reporting has suggested they’d prefer to work on the trade market – they inquired about Nolan Arenado earlier in the offseason – signing Profar is another route they could take.

Two further landing spots to consider are the Angels and Tigers, both of whom were reportedly interested in Santander before he signed with the Blue Jays. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Angels as one of the “frontrunners” to sign Santander, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post also mentioned Santander when he linked the Angels to Pete Alonso, acknowledging that the outfielder was a better positional fit. The Angels currently have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell penciled into the corner outfield spots, but Ward is a potential trade candidate (even if rumors of his availability may have been overblown) and Adell has hardly done enough to warrant a guaranteed starting job. Anthony Franco recently wrote about what the Angels could do next in a post for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, and he touched on Profar as a potential target.

Meanwhile, Petzold described Santander as a potential backup plan for the Tigers if they could not sign third baseman Alex Bregman. Considering that talks between Bregman and the Tigers are reportedly “at a standstill,” perhaps Detroit will pivot to Profar. After all, if the Tigers had interest in one switch-hitting corner outfielder, it stands to reason they’d have interest in another. While Riley Greene has one corner outfield spot on lock, manager A.J. Hinch could play Profar in the other corner. In addition, Profar could occasionally platoon at DH with Kerry Carpenter, who has struggled against left-handed pitching so far in his young career.

It would also be foolish to count out a reunion between Profar and the Padres. San Diego clearly likes what he brings to the table, having acquired him four separate times, first in a trade and then as a free agent in 2021, ’23, and ’24.  Moreover, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller worked in the Rangers’ international scouting department back when the team first signed Profar in 2009. It’s hard to imagine Preller could have lost interest now, given that Profar is coming off the best season of his career. On top of that, the Padres certainly still have space for him, having made no moves as of yet to replace his bat in the lineup. The big question, however, is if San Diego can afford to pay what Profar is seeking. The Padres are reportedly trying to reduce their payroll from its current $208MM projection (per RosterResource), which means they might need to offload some salary before considering any upgrades in free agency.

One more team that showed interest in Santander this winter was the Red Sox, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggests Boston is not actively pursuing Profar. That makes sense in light of manager Alex Cora’s recent comments that he hopes to use Masataka Yoshida in the outfield more often; Boston’s outfield picture is already quite crowded. In addition to Yoshida, the Red Sox have a pair of young, talented corner outfielders in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They also plan to use Ceddanne Rafaela as an outfielder “as much as possible” instead of shuttling him back and forth between shortstop and center field. On top of that, the Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony to consider. The promising outfielder could be ready for his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets were both serious suitors for Hernández earlier this winter, but the Yankees filled their hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, while the Mets presumably addressed that need by signing Jesse Winker. Other contenders that have already addressed needs in the corner outfield include the Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Notably, the Braves are one team not on that list. While they have not been linked to any notable free agent outfielders so far this winter, they were thought to be exploring the outfield market back in November. They could certainly use another outfielder if Ronald Acuña Jr. opens the season on the injured list, and even once Acuña returns, they might prefer an upgrade over Jarred Kelenic. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll currently sits about $31MM below last year’s final figure, which should give them plenty of flexibility to offer Profar the kind of contract he’s looking for.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Profar will ultimately end up? Have your say in the poll below:

Blue Jays, Astros Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the  front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.

Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.

The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.

Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.

Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.

Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ’Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.

On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.

As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.

Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.

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