As we all look forward to Game 5 of the World Series, let’s run through some noteworthy items from around the baseball world…
- Should Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez elect to opt out of the three years and $62.5MM remaining on his deal, the White Sox look like the “consensus” top suitor for the 32-year-old’s services, Rob Bradford of WEEI relays. At this juncture, it seems unlikely that NL teams would enter the Martinez sweepstakes given his shortcomings as a defensive outfielder. Of course, the lack of an NL market severely restricts the potential market for Martinez, a factor that he’ll surely consider as he weighs whether to enter free agency. What’s more: if he does, he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached, meaning that a signing team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. All those things make it markedly more difficult to identify realistic landing spots for the hitting virtuoso, though the White Sox may stand above the rest.
- As the Rays prepare to embark on the offseason, they’ll have to evaluate Travis d’Arnaud’s role in their 2020 catching situation, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The ex-Met emerged as a surprising offensive contributor after he was acquired in a nondescript May trade, ending the season with a .782 OPS for the Rays. Fellow catcher Mike Zunino’s fate might depend on what happens with d’Arnaud, who has a chance to earn a two-year deal at a $6MM or $7MM AAV. If the Rays choose to keep him around at that price, Zunino may become expendable after a disappointing offensive season. Meanwhile, letting d’Arnaud walk would put pressure on Zunino to improve on the dreadful .544 OPS he posted in his first season with the Rays. Otherwise, the team could once again turn to external options.
- When it’s all said and done, the 2011 first-year player draft may go down as one of the best in baseball history, writes Dan Connolly of The Athletic. It’s a timely retrospective, with the stars of the class on full display in this year’s World Series: the Astros’ George Springer and Gerrit Cole, as well as the Nationals’ Anthony Rendon, all came from the 2011 first round (Cole and Rendon, it’s worth noting, will also be the offseason’s two most sought-after free agents). Trea Turner, meanwhile, was a 20th-round choice the same year. And that’s not to mention the bevy of stars that play elsewhere in the Majors: Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor, and Javier Báez all come from the ranks of the 2011 draft, which also featured “what-if” stories like Dylan Bundy and the late José Fernández. Connolly also considers the pivotal selection of Danny Hultzen by the Mariners, which could have had a profound effect on the rest of the draft had they instead opted for Rendon, their second choice. The 2011 draft has already earned its place among the all-time great draft classes, which is doubly impressive considering that it’s collectively still in its prime years.
Can’t forget the Mets #1 pick in the 2011 Draft: Brandon Nimmo!!
jk.
Note: Nimmo is a solid player but not on the level of Springer, Rendon, Cole or even the late J. Fernandez was.
That Mets draft class isn’t terrible, all things considered. Nimmo, Fulmer, Gsellman, Gant and Lugo.
Nimmo has posted a 6+ WAR and OPS+ of 131 in his last 900 AB, you might want to find a better examples of failure (there are more than enough) from that 1st round.
Also Nimmo was a high school player, not a college player.
Technically he wasn’t even a high school player, as they don’t play high school baseball in his home state. Pretty amazing anyone comes out of the northern rocky mountain states.
Lindor and Baez were selected out of high school as well
I don’t get JD n Boras! To make changes fir a couple more million is beyond me. I really disliked JD comment about switching teams a few weeks ago when he said he liked it. To my thinking he was waving goodbye to Boston, who gave him a job when everyone passed on him.
Awe.. poor Red Sox.
Sniff sniff..
They did that to DET too.
Yup
a little pie on the sky in your beliefs about players on general, eh?
JD will not opt out. It would be stupid. He’s not getting more than 23 million from anyone, not at his age, not with hi glove, which was worse last season than before. The speculation over it has always been hyped.
Jack, JD feels like he was underpaid, which is so stupid. He isn’t a Big Papi! His back troubled him all yr till the end when he knew teams would look at his yr.
@pasha2k
Dude had a ..939 OPS with 36 hrs. That’s elite level hitting. I can absolutely see some team giving him a 3/$75 mil deal which would be about $12 mil more than what he’s guaranteed. If he feels that 2020 is going to be a transition year for the Sox he might want a change of scenery.
One out the box location might be Toronto. JD was given credit with his work habits towards hitting rubbing off on the other younger hitters. Toronto might want JD to mentor their younger hitters. They might splurge. It would be a good investment.
Couldn’t see the Jays interested. Not giving a DH 25 mil a year when we just had to work to give away the last DH (Morales). Jays will be looking for either an impact CF (which are rarely available) or an impact RF and move Grichuk to CF. Either way, they’ll be looking for someone who can catch a ball
What’s wrong with wanting to live in different cities over a career?
He is doing Boston a favor if he opts out, that is best case scenario and has been since he signed. He comes and has two great seasons, brings a ring, leaves and gets a bigger contract while leaving us a draft pick. Best case scenario when he signed and still best case.
@pasha2k
Who “gave” him a job? He wasn’t a destitute youth given his first job. He held out for the most money possible and the Sox gave it to him. If not them, then he would’ve signed elsewhere for a little less money. Not like he was going to be forced into retirement.
It’s Rob Bradford not Chad
Turner didn’t officially get drafted until a few yeara later tho in the 1st.
He was “officially” drafted but didn’t sign.
Chef throwing out first ball tonight. Then watch something else. Maybe some PBS shows. Probably watch game 6, they’re usually good games.
I remember the first draft. That wasn’t too bad a class either. Some guys named Ryan, Bench, Seaver, Bando, Messersmith. Nettles. Monday and Holtsman went in it. You might remember some of them.
White Sox have spent the last half-decade acquiring nearly a dozen DH types.
But they are absolutely foolish enough to spend $75mil and a draft pick on a declining RH DH..
Spend 1/3rd of your payroll on 1B and DH, Rick. You genius.
Add him to the pile of terrible FA signings in the Hahn era.
So putting the “Hahn” era into context, he took over to team with a mediocre roster, and an owner who wouldn’t spend on impact player in free agency. He convinced Ken Williams and Jerry Reinsdorf that rebuilding the entire organization from the minors up was the way to go. In order for a rebuild to work, you need free agent players on short term contracts as placeholders (and tank) while assembling and developing prospects. So your characterization of Hahn doesn’t hold up to scrutiny when put into context. He’s managed to payroll wisely, and should reap the benefits of that the next two offseasons. I can see the White Sox comfortably adding $120MM in payroll by 2021 as they transition into contention mode.
Sorry for the unedited reply, my iPhone is a beast to type on.
the snake at the top hasn’t ever spent nor will he. worst owner in history
Hahn’s been GM since 2012.
Cabrera, LaRoche, Hudson, Kusoke, F, Keppinger, Soto, Latos, Bonifacio, Duke, Albers, Navarro, Avila, Lawrie, Frazier, Morneau all FA’s signed by Rick on teams that were supposed to compete.
“Rebuild entire org” Getz, Steverson, Renteria, Hostetler, Poe, Vizquel all flops. Continues to oversee the smallest least creative analytics dept in MLB.
Traded Sale, Eaton and Q, tanked 3 season and ended up right back where they were in 2014. Needing to spend big to keep from another stars and scabs roster while praying for good luck due to a lack of meaningful depth.
Except they don’t need to spend big. I just demonstrated that. The young players give them financial flexibility they didn’t have before. Hahn has said the plan is to add payroll this offseason, and that the money will get spent. All we can do is trust him at this point. If the Sox fail to sign anyone of note, then all bets are off.
@pplama Exactly. Couldn’t have said it better.
Yah, outside of the fact that they didn’t have young impact talent anywhere other than pitcher back then, they’re in the exact same spot. Great call.
This team is in much better shape going forward than the 2014 team.
Sale, Eaton, Abreu, Quintana was the core.
People thought Anderson, Garcia, Rodon, Montas, Fulmer and Davidson would be the homegrown, cost controlled youngsters that would make big FA signings unnecesary.
Now it’s Moncada, Giolito and Anderson’s .400 BABIP as the core. With Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, Robert and Madrigal that Sox fans are convinced will be big contributers in short order. (after hopes were dashed on Collins, Burger, Lopez, Burdi, Hansen and Rutherford)
Right back where they were.
But it will all be different this time, because……
Their improved draft strategy? Nope. Manager? Nope. Player development? Nope. Improvements in health and training? Nope. Cutting edge analytics? Nope. Changes in scouting and FA targeting? Nope. Critical mass of prospect depth? HA! Nope.
This thing called talent. They have a heck of a lot more of it now.
The Sox never had this much talent on their roster with such a small payroll. Look it up. Heck, I’ll even go as far as to say this team has the potential to be better than the WS team in ‘05.
That 2005 team was more of a patchwork job, definitely not built from the ground up like the current group of White Sox who are mainly composed of June Draft picks, international signings and prospects acquired through trades. This current group also has a solid balance of pitchers and hitters, much more so than the recent Cubs and Astros rebuilds that concentrated on drafting young hitters while acquiring veteran pitching through trades and free agency.
Hopefully JR will now step up and supplement this talented young core with the necessary dollars the front office needs to finish the job with with an impact veteran hitter and pitcher this offseason and next.
@pplama
I’m not advocating the signing but JD still had an elite season in 2019. Being that his body is saved from playing defense he can still hit well for another few years like David Ortiz did. He could be a real mentor to their young hitters. He has a rep for having great know how on how to use advance analytics and he’s one of the most prepared hitters in the game. Sometimes a great talent needs a vet to help get the best of it. I have no idea how good the W.Sox hitting coach is but I think JD can do for the W. Sox hitter what Verlander did for Cole and what JD did to Betts, Boegarts and Devers.
My offseason wishlist for the White Sox:
1. Re-sign Abreu (2 years).
2. Add 1 of Cole/Strasburg/Bumgarner/Keuchel.
3. Sign Puig for RF (2 yrs, option for 3).
4. Sign J.D. Martinez, Kendrick or Castellanos for DH.
That should about do it. Trade for bullpen or starting pitching help as needed at the deadline and cruise to a 90+ win season and a playoff run in 2020.
Who’s signing off on all those paychecks?
They have a $24MM payroll next year for a reason. If they’re not willing to match a small market team like the Twins in payroll, they can move out of town (the team name and logo stays here).
Market size doesn’t matter when you have a bottom 10 TV contract and bottom 10 attendance. It’s not like there’s $ deducted from every paycheck in a teams’ market to help support them according to population.
The market demand is there, the Sox simply have to earn market share. You do that by winning. A few elite players with brand recognition helps too.
The market demand is there, the Sox simply have to earn market share.
———————————————————
I agree, and always, always say the same thing about the Mets. For some franchises, you have no choice but to avoid most FAs. For the NYM, and other big market teams, they simply need to spend the money.
The WS & NYMs will always be their city’s #2 team, The WS, imho, should draw between 2.5-3.0M fans. They are at about 1.6M. The difference is 0.9-1.4M. The midway if 1.1M. And extra 1.1M tickets might be close to $100M in added revenue, plus increases in TV & radio.
But it is the team that needs to make the first investment.
That’s a minimum of $70/yr. Good luck with that!
Simple math:
$70MM + $24MM = $94M
$94MM is nothing for a the White Sox, or any contending team. They’re absolute limit is well above that.
lol, dangit!
Except lord Moron and his precious pennies refuse to part ways
@ChiSoxCity
It’s amazing how historically cheap the Sox are with Chicago being a top 5 market.
1-Jose Abreu returning is a no-brainer. If I were the White Sox I’d offer a two year deal and tag him with a QO. If Abreu accepts the contract or QO it gives the team time to monitor the progress of first base prospect Andrew Vaughn who may make his MLB debut as soon as 2021.
2-Acquiring at least one solid veteran starting pitcher should be the top priority for the front office this offseason. I’d offer top FA dollars for either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg but expect them to sign elsewhere even if the White Sox offer is among the best. I’d be wary of Madison Bumgarner pitching in a hitter-friendly park and his expected QO from the Giants. If they miss on Cole or Strasburg, Mark Buehrle “clone” Dallas Keuchel would be a nice fit in GRF. Keuchel also can’t be tagged with another QO since he had one last offseason.
3-Puig looks like the best true RF free agent this offseason. He also can’t be tagged with a QO since he was traded mid-season. The preference would be for the White Sox to add a lefty bat in RF but Kole Calhoun is too old and not the same player he was a few years ago. The only other lefty FA bat is Cory Dickerson who is a left-fielder where the White Sox are set with Eloy Jimenez. I’d shoot for a trade involving a controllable lefty bat who can play RF before settling on Puig, perhaps somebody like Alex Verdugo of the Dodgers. Puig would be the consolation prize, one who might fit very nicely on a White Sox club that will also have 3 other Cubans in their starting lineup with Abreu, 3B Yoan Moncada and CF Luis Robert.
4-As with their RF situation, the preference would be for the White Sox to find a lefty bat at DH. Acquiring either right-handed slugger J.D. Martinez or Nicholas Castellanos would make that point moot since they can both rake. Martinez will be tagged by the Red Sox, Castellanos cannot be due to his trade to the Cubs last July.
You bring up MadBum’s success at home but ignore declining Keuchel’s issues on the road. 11 HR’s in 50ip (or 2.74 ERA vs 5.01 if you prefer)
A QO to Abreu would be a waste of $.
Calhoun mashes RHP (.815 OPS) and playes above avg D, , things the Sox need. Too bad Sox are too inept to properly depoly him if he were signed.
Puig is terrible and a clubhouse cancer. (and no it does not matter that he’s Cuban and so are some White Sox players. That’s ignorant)
Declining Matinez had an OPS below .800 vs RHP this year.
White Sox basically have to QO Abreu to make not trading him worth it (and even then, still not). And I think they like him enough to overpay him for one year.
According to who is Yasiel Puig a clubhouse cancer?
Sox can save $5mil by offering Jose $12.5mil and not going with a QO. No team will pay more than that for a declining RH DH. GM’s don’t give out contracts based on RBI’s.
Are you really unanware of all the on-field, off-field and clubhouse issues Puig has been involved in over the last 7 years??
Splits on 50 IP are basically meaningless
That’s very false.
And the splits cover 112ip.
If they can get Jose on a one-year deal for less than the QO, they will. If not, they have to QO him.
Puig has had no clubhouse issues. Dodgers fans gave him a standing ovation when he returned to LAD as a Cincinnati Red. Wouldn’t surprise me if LAD brings him back as a FA this offseason.
Sure, Puig is very immature and lacks leadership. He wouldn’t be my first option, but it’s slim pickings for OFs this year. A short contract ensures the Sox can move on from him quickly if things don’t work out.
According to Pirates and giants fans, jk
Dodgers are definitely not bringing Puig back. It would be completely shocking. With that said, there’s nothing more to it than an OF that is logjammed, and Puig just not fitting their needs anymore.
To say he didn’t have clubhouse issues seems disingenuous much the same as saying he was a clubhouse cancer. He was immature. He openly admitted to not having the best work ethic or always being accountable. That understandably rubbed guys the wrong way, and the examples are documented, but by the same accounts he wasn’t a cancer.
He received quite the ovation from Dodgers fans in his first game back at Dodger Stadium as a Red.
And all the reasons you gave for why the Dodgers would not bring Puig back would still be true even if they hadn’t traded him.
pplama: When discussing Bumgarner and Keuchel I am looking at their entire career numbers and not a small sample size from the latter’s abbreviated 2019 season where he changed teams, leagues and had no spring training.
A $17.8MM QO salary for Abreu in 2020 would hardly be a waste of White Sox payroll and might guarantee the slugger returns for at least one more season where more than one veteran presence is needed on a team transitioning from rebuilding mode to one of relevance and contention.
Beats me what numbers you are referring to regarding Kole Calhoun. All I see is a player on the wrong side of thirty with a low BA, too many strike outs and a negative dWAR in 2019 and throughout his career in RF. Enlighten us all as to how he will be any better than Adam Dunn or Adam LaRoche as the next great left-handed hitting free agent on the south side of Chicago.
I don’t believe that Yasiel Puig is a clubhouse cancer. If he was that bad the Dodgers would have launched him years ago. I also believe that he could max out his enormous potential with the White Sox playing alongside three other Cuban amigos, with Jose Abreu playing the role of big brother to Puig while continuing to mentor all the other young latinos as they come up through the pipeline. Luis Robert will be the next beneficiary of Abreu’s council in 2020, just as Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez have been the past two seasons.
JD Martinez isn’t a White Sox necessity on a par with an impact veteran starting pitcher, a legitimate left-handed bat and/or identifying their future core catcher beyond 2020. That said, he would significantly upgrade the DH position that was a black hole for the White Sox in 2019. Martinez would be a significant addition to the middle of the White Sox batting order, similar or better than what an older Nelson Cruz provided as a DH for the division rival Twins last season.
50 ip on road
Jose Abreu would be a huge influence on Puig. I say the White Sox should try to sign him. The Cuban angle (see Minnie Minoso) is huge with the Chicago franchise. Makes 100% logical for him to play there.
Everyone knows the Sox want a LH bat. The problem is there aren’t any viable options available at the moment. Signing Puig and Abreu to short term contracts gives them a little time to find one.
Ok 1st , you best check your math. After resigning Abreu, arbitration and pre arb. raises the Sox starting payroll point will be right around $65M so that’s approx. $40M more than your math.
2nd they need LH power , They are overly RH and all I see on your list of players is a couple of right handed statues like Martinez and Castellanos. The Sox already have a RH statue in Areu , and a future RH statue in Eloy. I also see 2 other RH guys in Puig and Kendrick. Why would a young team like the Sox want a bad example like Puig around their youngsters ?
With the cost of a top starting pitcher being high and JDM’s likely cost plus he’ll probably cost a draft pick along with a few of the starting pitchers also costing a draft pick.I don’t see JDM fitting in at all on the White Sox.
The Sox need guys like Grandal and Moustakas who combined might cost the same as JDM and their presence gives the Sox strength at DH,catcher, 1st , 2nd and 3rd base and more LH power and a better bench.that can cover those positions in case of injury.
With you as the GM the Sox have no defense ,no versatility , no bench, no left handed power, put a bad influence around the young core and no 2nd and 3rd round draft picks not to mention you haven’t done your homework on the Sox payroll..
Congratulations you just ruined the rebuild.
Funny you should mention statues because when all is said and done both Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez will have their own bronze monuments adorning the ballpark alongside those of Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko. Hopefully they will also receive a World Series ring or three as well.
SoxGuru, I’ve already addressed these concerns about Puig and LH hitters. I’m not going to keep beating a dead horse, so please scroll up and read. I believe your approach is to formulaic. You need to understand that not even need can be fulfilled this offseason. I call it a wishlist for that reason. The Sox will be lucky to land one or two of the players I mentioned. A top FA starter to lead the rotation would probably be the most significant FA signing in franchise history. Adding Puig to an OF corp of Eloy and Robert should be a massive upgrade to their offense, relative to previous years. I’m concerned with the net result than I am with perfect fits. Nor am I worried about the money being spent. To my memory, the Sox have never had such a small payroll, coinciding with so much young talent on the roster. They have money to spend, no one should dispute that. We’ll just have to wait and see how things pan out the next two offseasons. I just hope Hahn and company don’t trade the entire farm away for one or two players. Spend the money, and developing the farm system for depth.
They have more than26MM on their payroll to Herrera, Colome, and Jimenez alone. Why anyone believed that garbage was true I’m not quite sure. It’s at 26 without any arb raises for AAV purposes but obviously that’s going north and I highly doubt the White Sox spend anywhere near the luxury tax level in salaries.
Who said anything about spending near the luxury tax?
It looks like their adjusted salary for 2020 is $56MM. Even if they added one mega contract, they’d still be under $100MM.
The desperation from pseudo Sox (cubs) fans is palpable.
Per Spotrac (spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/2020/) the White Sox have $16.33MM in guaranteed payroll for 2020 as we post. This includes Kelvin Herrera (($8.5MM), Tim Anderson ($4MM) and Eloy Jimenez ($2.33MM) along with $1MM still owed Yonder Alonso and the expected $500k buyout of Wellington Castillo’s team option.
Clearly the White Sox will have additional payroll (see above comment reply from ChiSoxCity) with all of their arbitration eligible players that includes Alex Colome, James McCann and others. Spotrac also has some projections for those amounts assuming they will all be tendered contracts by the December 2nd deadline which is no sure thing.
I read all your posts before I replied. You said nothing about how Puig is a cancer and also said there are no viable LH options which is clearly untrue since I mentioned Grandal (switch hitter) and Moustakas (LH) who can also hit lefties..
As far as being too formulaic , the whole point of free agency is to address your needs in the most cost efficient way while filling as many holes as possible. Hahn himself said the Sox have to address the need for LH power. I didn’t even address the RF need because there’s so many different options and Puig is among my least favorites.
None of us truly know what the Sox will spend on payroll so the off season can go many difference ways and who they can sign will also shape who else they might sign.
Your wish list does nothing to fill those needs and leaves a terrible defensive team and leaves Moncada as the only LH in the lineup. It also doesn’t allow for injuries to be filled by a competent backup (positional versatility ).. For a guy who prefers not trading minor leaguers I’m sure you understand the important of minor league depth yet your wish list loses you a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick for signing a top pitcher and JDM .
Smart organizations like TB, Houston , Dodgers ,Yankees and A’s somehow manage to have great minor league systems while also staying competitive.. If the Sox want :”sustained success” ( a Hahn favorite) then it is imperative that holes be filled as judiciously as possible not in the willy- nilly manner you have done it..
1. I’d sign Abreu for 3 years. The bat really hasn’t tailed off much and he’s the leader of this team.
2. Keuchel, no. Way past his prime. I’d rather take a chance on Wheeler realizing his potential than Keuchel managing to be just productive.
3. Puig, hell no. An immature diva is the last thing this team needs. Castellanos and Ozuna are at least as good on the FA market. Haniger is a good buy-low candidate via trade.
4. Could be ok with any of these, but JDM is way above the other two in value.
And I think they need more bullpen help. Some guys were solid, some made me cringe every tie I saw them.
The article “implies” the CWS are a likely landing spot for JDM “only if he opts out”.
So what does that tell you if you’re JDM?
You’ll never be able to do better than the contract you now have.
Assuming that’s correct then it stands to reason he doesn’t opt out and stays in Boston.
And it stands to reason the Red Sox probably won’t be able to easily move him.
Thus Mookie Betts is the “likely” candidate to be shipped out this winter.
Assuming Boston want’s to get under $208M in 2020?
If that’s not as big a priority as keeping Mookie then we’ll find out.
If I’m John Henry I go over the $208M in 2020, bite the bullet, and let Chaim Bloom work his magic gradually over 2020 and 2021 and beyond.
It’s probably worth it to have some flexibility in your arsenal and not empty the cupboard in 2020.
Unless of course they get an offer they can’t refuse. LOL
Except you’re ignoring the main reason why he’d opt out.
Please explain the “main reason” that JDM would potentially be opting out this winter?
Explain how JDM could do better by opting out?
The article states if he opts out a QO is attached to him.
It also states his lack of defensive abilities will prohibit or limit teams from joining the JDM sweepstakes.
Another team offers more money. Hello?
WOW! That’s profound. LOL
Are you related to Yogi Berra?
He’ll leave if he gets more money but he won’t leave if he can’t get more money.
Nobody goes there anymore because it’s too busy.
It ain’t over til it’s over.
It’s deja vu all over again?
wow. See, JD won’t know until AFTER he opts out whether anyone will offer more money.
That is why it is important to have an agent who knows how to read the market.
I keep hearing people say on here “The Red Sox want JDM to opt out” which directly implies that he can’t get more money in FA. So if I had to guess, I’d say he doesn’t.
The Red Sox wanting JD to opt out has nothing to do with his earnings potential. It’s to help with their payroll situation.
If that’s the case, they would not want him to opt out because if he didn’t, they could trade him for a haul of prospects. With the opt out they lose him for nothing.
$9mil of excess value on his current contract doesn’t get a “haul” of propetcs. Not worth the risk of failing to find a suitor.
$62.5mil of savings + a draft pick is much more valuable and sure bet for the Red Sox.
The ability to add years of control makes his opt out value different than his trade value.
I agree with you 100% pplama
He has another opt out next year so any team trading for him can only know they get one year.
@SG
I think that if JD opt out it’s more than likely because Boras has had conversations with teams indicating a need and a willingness to surpass the contract he had with Boston. I’m sure Boras has back channels. Plain and simple. the guy has had 3 consecutive years of an OPS over .939. In fact, compared to most DH types in the last 3 years his WAR which factors in his lack of defense, has been 12.9. Slightly ahead of Stanton (12) and Cruz (10.6) but double the 4th highest DH who was Encanarcion who had a 5.8. His bat is nothing short of elite and I could see him getting 3/$75. I think that’s reasonable.
@pplama…
“$9mil of excess value on his current contract doesn’t get a ‘haul’ of propetcs (sp).”
if a team is willing to give him a better contract than the one he’s opting out of and give up a draft pick to do it. Then absolutely they would be willing to trade a haul for his current contract if not for the opt out.
And if they aren’t willing to trade a haul for his current contract, then he’s not going to opt out in the first place.
“$62.5mil of savings + a draft pick is much more valuable and sure bet for the Red Sox.”
If that’s the case then you can completely forget about JDM opting out.
“The ability to add years of control makes his opt out value different than his trade value.”
And not having to give him extra guaranteed years is why another team would wanna trade for him without the opt out.
Checkmate.
It’s not really magic with a virtually unlimited budget….it WAS with the microscopic payroll of the Rays.
If J.D. Martinez opts out of his deal the White Sox will win a bidding war with the Red Sox because of Boston’s luxury tax issues. Martinez also might view the White Sox as the team with a better shot at contending for a title among the Sox franchises in the next few years. I may be a Kool-Aid drinking White Sox fan but I’m not alone in thinking that Chicago’s southside franchise will have one of MLB’s best offensive teams beginning in 2020. There are not many clubs who can boast of a lineup with the youth and potential the White Sox have going forward.
The White Sox have a hitter in SS Tim Anderson who just won the AL batting championship and another on the way in 2B Nick Madrigal who should be a perennial contender for future titles.
The White Sox also have two legitimate 5-tool talents in 3B Yoan Moncada and CF Luis Robert. LF Eloy Jimenez joins them as an elite hitter with an MVP caliber bat.
The White Sox will have a future core lineup that features enormous power in Jimenez, Robert and Moncada along with 20+ SB potential in Anderson, Madrigal, Robert and Moncada. This is just their basic foundation and does not include top 1B prospect Andrew Vaughn or returning 1B/DH Jose Abreu. The addition of Martinez at DH and their next RF (Yasiel Puig?) could make their batting order extraordinary.
Except that he’s not opting out.
I like the idea of Howie Kendrick or Castellanos as a back up plan.
If JDM opts out the Red Sox obviously aren’t going to pursue him and will get a draft pick.
CWS may get him but it will cost them $ and a draft pick.
The Red Sox will free up $62.75M in payroll ($23.75M in 2020) which is what they stated they want to do.
The issue here is if JDM thinks he can get more $ than the $62.5MM that he currently is contracted to receive.
The Red Sox will make out either way.
JDM is a good player so they will have him for 2020, if he stays, or they free up payroll and save money and get something for him.
The balls in JDM’s court.
I think the White Sox are up and coming but whoa on the homerism. McCann is a better offensive catcher but Vazquez better defensively and hit well in 2019, maybe a push. 1B is open for both, another push. 2B is a question for both but if Madrigal comes up and lives up I’ll give you this one. Andsrson had a great season, Bogaerts a better one so edge Sox especially given history. Moncada finally had a good MLB season but again Devers was better so edge Sox. Jiminez is a good player but still behind Benintendi. Ill give you Engle over JBJ but I think WAR disagrees. White Sox have nobody close to Mookie in any way at any position. If JD stays that is another big win, if not then take it away. If Red Sox rotation is relatively healthy they still have the edge, if they arent pitching then it goes to White Sox. I do think JD is a great fit on the southside but not bc the team there is in some better position for next year or even the next few years unless the White Sox add big pieces.
lolol
@AaronSapoznik
Sox can surprise but they were near the bottom/back middle in just about every offensive categories. Even with the whole “juiced ball” they still “only” hit 182. They were bottom 5 in homers, walk and K rate. A vet like JD might help turn that around some what.
The White Sox achieved those 2019 numbers with at most 5 core players in their batting order which includes veteran 1B Jose Abreu and C James McCann. The three sure-fire foundation pieces in 3B Yoan Moncada, SS Tim Anderson and LF Eloy Jimenez all missed substantial time in 2019 due to injuries. Those 3 also have a mere 6 seasons of MLB experience among them with Jimenez just completing his rookie season while Moncada finished his second full year. Two more impacting rookies will debut next season in CF Luis Robert and 2B Nick Madrigal.
The White Sox have a ton of money available to spend on another veteran hitter or two in free agency or a potential trade this offseason. Clearly hitters like JD Martinez and/or Yasiel Puig would contribute significant offense to the White Sox 2020 batting order. Robert and Madrigal would bring 30+ SB potential to the lineup with Robert also adding more power while Madrigal’s extraordinary contact skills will help reduce the “K” rate.
Now if only any of them could learn how to take a walk…
Trade Carlos Rodon and Danny Mendick for Mookie Betts with an extension agreement 3 years 90 million.
Our left handed DH starter 2020is Daniel Palka that much I’m positive of.
2011 draft was a good 1 and smart organizations realized last before new restrictions on drafting/spending would come into place.. I’ve mentioned this numerous times before, but the Rays had an amazing *11* picks believe it was in the 1st 100 and hit on think was 1-2. They gave slot-minus on all. I’m not looking it up this time, like usually do, but how many organizations with that many premium picks wouldn’t have shot for the moon on 3-4?
I’ll always remember as the picks were rattled off that draft and shaking my head as the Rays went further and further down the rankings list after kids with the best draft (kids wise) in probably decades and blew it.
As a RS fan, I remember that. We played the draft pick game pretty well, but that was the best manipulation I’ve ever seen, probably in any sport. 10 picks in the top 60. If it helps, after Wong at #22, the rest of the first round had only 3 10 WAR players, and TB got one of them.
With all the high picks the mariners have had they should have a great team. Maybe they need to get rid of everyone who scouts and develops players. Its sad how bad they drafted.
They haven’t really had high picks. They’ve been 75+ win team for the last 5-6 seasons. The Ms are the #4 farm right now. They are coming. I’m betting on a white Sox/mariners Alcs in 21.
They gonna offer him a contract that is entirely incentive based then throw a temper tantrum when he signs with someone else for more guaranteed money?
Yah, totally. Then maybe they can hire Bochy to manage the team in 2021, since he made it pretty clear that he’s not “Done. Period.”
The Rays should let Td’A test free agency. This was his first year he actually was in uniform for much of the season. No one is paying $6m per in my view. After testing free agency, my thinking is he resigns for one year at S3.5m with a $4.5m second year or a $500k buyout so if he reverts to his Mets days and ends up on the IL for most of the year, the Rays move on.
The thing with jd is don’t bid against yourself. If nobody will give him more than 3 years $75 million don’t be the team to do 5 for $110
The vast majority of JDM comments here show posters do not recall what his actual contract is.
1) he gets paid $2.5m to opt out.
2) because of the opt out bonus he gets anyways, his MAX extra he can earn by staying and has to beat is only an extra 21.25m 2020, and 19m in each of 2021&22.
3) I say maximum because only 2020 is truly guaranteed anyways.
Nobody seems to remember that because of the foot issues JD had in the past, there’s a number of technical clauses (that beg for grievances if used) which boils down to two things. Either of year 4 or 5 converts to a mutual option respectively if there is 1) a foot injury in any way related to what JD injured in the past, where 2) either 60 days are spent on the IL the year before, or, min 10 days are spent in preceding year with a combined 120 days in the preceding 2 years.
So class, the takeaways here?
1) JD only had to sign for 59.25m/3yr to match the MAXIMUM he will earn in boston, but, 2) his MINIMUM remaining guarantee only requires a 1yr 21.25m deal since A) a total of 60 days on the IL in either yr 3 or 4 converts the following year into a mutual option, or B) 120 days on the IL combined in years 3&4 with at least 10 of those in year 4 would make year 5 a mutual option. (Technically year 4 could also follow the formula, but, due to lack of IL time in year 2, meeting this requirement requires more than the 60 days required under option A so it’s moot.)
Unlike your vanilla opt-out, JD has other considerations – ie risk of injury – to consider leaving early and finding a deal that doesn’t allow the team to essentially void his remaining guarantees without penalty after any following season should he be iured
Sweet baby Jesus & the orphans. You’re his agent.
Thank you for that detailed analysis.
I suspect it was easier for man to land on the moon than understanding the ins and outs of his contract.
It would probably be easier to get rid of JDM than go through hiring a lawyer each time it involves looking into the nuances of his contract.
LOL
@As fan – I could only wish. The fees would be awesome, but alas, I’m nothing but a lowly Sox fan.
@SG – I really wish MLBTR would start up a post re-educating people here exactly what the contract JDM is looking at opting out of entails. In the absence of that I try to fill the void when dropping in a thread.
Lots of conversation here is basically pointless because people don’t see how things are and hypothesize and argue based on false assumptions.
So you’re basically saying it’s in JDM’s interest to opt out for more guaranteed money without restrictions.
Correct.
JDM has to know his market is limited and even further limited if the acquiring team wants to impose health based restrictions just as Boston did . Not only the foot but now his back..
The White Sox in the distant (Frank Thomas diminished skills clause) and more recent (Manny Machado , age based plate appearances) past are risk adverse to high cost players. I do not see them offering a restriction-less contract to JDM..
Opting out for him is still debatable.
Jeez… so much angst among Sox fans. ha
We all know Jerry’s one of the worst owners in professional sports when it comes to spending money. But the Sox have been gearing up for this for a while now. Salary commitments for the next few years are historically low, and they planned it that way specifically to sign higher quality free agents once the prospects start showing up. Let’s see what Hahn’s about to do this offseason before Sox fans breakout the torches and pitchforks. I’ll be the first one to yell BTMF down if they end up with no significant additions to the roster (aside from the same garbage they ALWAYS sign cuz no one else wants them).
*able to do
I’ve given up on the White Sox getting Cole, but getting JDM would take them from worst DH in the league to best overnight. I know it’s a pipe dream to imagine Jerry cracking open his wallet that far, but this would be a great time to spend and a great player to spend it on.
When you just said “it’s a pipe dream to imagine Jerry cracking open his wallet that far”, this is why I can see the Red Sox cutting payroll.
For the simple reason that not many teams are adding to theirs.
There are only a handful of teams that want to and can compete with Boston financially.
Boston has finally seen that and has added Chaim Bloom to stop competing with itself and to cut expensive players and add better value to out of control spending.
Financial sanity has finally prevailed in Boston it seems.
Rather have Abreu back for fraction of the cost! JDM not really an upgrade & will likely be more expensive!