With the free agent pitching ranks quickly thinning out, it seems veteran starter Rick Porcello is beginning to garner widespread interest. After yesterday brought word of the Mets’ pursuit of the right-hander, it now appears that the Red Sox are kicking the tires on the soon-to-be 31-year-old, according to reporting from Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Globe. The reporter cites an industry source in saying that Boston and Porcello’s reps “remain engaged in discussions”.
We figured Porcello for a one-year deal worth $11MM at the outset of this offseason, but his representatives may be able to leverage multiple interested parties into a guarantee exceeding that projection. True, Porcello’s 2019 was ugly: he pitched to a 5.52 ERA (4.76 ERA) in 174.1 innings, while posting the lowest strikeout rates he’s exhibited since coming to Boston prior to 2015 (7.38 K/9). Still, there are still some underlying analytics that offer reason for optimism, including the high spin rate generated on Porcello’s breaking pitches–that is, if someone is apt to overlook his struggles with the home run ball (the righty allowed 31 taters in 2019, tied for seventh-most in the game). Perhaps it’s most judicious to simply say that teams in search of an innings-eater could do worse than a young-ish, former Cy Young winner in good health.
The Red Sox definitely figure to be one such team. As things stand, the team figures to call on Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi next season–three pitchers with serious durability concerns. A Porcello re-signing wouldn’t raise many neck hairs in the Massachusetts area, but it would provide some stability for a rotation that, outside of Eduardo Rodriguez, is relatively short on it.
For what it’s worth, Mastrodonato provides some quotes Porcello made back in May when he expressed a desire to stay with the Sox. Speaking of a possible extension, the pitcher said that he and his reps had “expressed our willingness to take a discount to make that work”, but that the club basically didn’t feel like it was at financial liberty to give him the deal he was seeking. Whether the club, under the new direction of Chaim Bloom, has changed their thinking on Porcello’s value bears watching as the Winter Meetings get underway this week.
Yay, I hope Rick stays!!
2 years 24 million. Done.
CWS will offer a ‘higher AAV’, but end up the runner up. Karma for how the organization runs things.
Not fair to penalize the pale hose if it happens as you state. He’s been with Boston for several years and if one sets up roots and his happy, why make a lifestyle change? As I’ve posted previously, an argument can be made that next year is better to reset the tax base. I’m just not sure what value Price and Eovaldi presently have and if Boston has to subsidize any deal and then seek replacements, why bother? Instead of sending cash, Trading Bennie with Price might be better. I love Bennie but he didn’t improve in 19 when so many others benefitted from the rabbit ball and after 2020 his arb projections might outpace his actual value. Of course 2020 could be the year he puts everything together but there are risks in most every trade.
3/40
Yikes, isn’t that a bit too much for this guy?
$35M for 3 years plus some incentives..
Porcello said during the season as well he wanted to stay. problem has been don’t think DD was a big Porcello fan. DD never bothered signing him to an extension at detroit when he was signing about that entire team, then traded him to boston and didn’t get with Porcello last year either. i think him getting 8-10mAAV over 2y is about right.
Boston could sign a similar pitcher in Ivan Nova for a little less.
He never looked as bad as he did last year. Maybe Cora overused the starters in the playoffs and it had a carry over effect. I remember him putting the team in jokes in the first innings. His signing with the team doesn’t exactly give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
Wow imagine if Rick Porcello was on the Red Sox
Wow I can’t imagine rick Porcello on the Red Sox.
4/$84 Done deal
That’s more than we just paid him…
No way ever will that happen. He’s a stopgap. Two years Max.
The joke went right over your head.
Gotcha. And that’s not the first time that’s happened LOL.
Are you nuts?? Try half of that AT MOST
A par is trying to make prior deals look better…
Ridiculous
He’s going to want a 3 yr deal at like $40-50mm I bet. That’s not terrible for a reliable 4+ era AL pitcher that wants to redeem himself. He eats innings, we just need to expect that we need to score 5-6 when he pitches.
What does a 4+ era mean? He had a 5.52 era last year which was close to if not the worst era for any starting pitcher.Is that what you meant by 4o-50 mill for a reliable 4+ era..If so doesn’t that mean basically any pitcher who throws 170 innings like he did last year is worth 3 years 40-50 mill., Boy Jake Odorizzi signed a 1 year 17.6 mill contract. What was he thing He was obviously worth what, 3 years 75 mill with his stats
Man you hate that guy.
He’s had as many years with a 5+ era as he won cy young awards.
How about that? Should we all hop around touting wow, 12m a year for a cy young award winning pitcher! What a deal!
Uprated.
Stick to playing CF Willie
Man you must hate life in general
This is written in a way that would make one think Porcello didn’t just pitch for the Red Sox for several years.
Sox spending or shedding payroll?
Somebody has to pitch. 200 inning guy is worth 12 million dollars.
He hasn’t had 200 innings since 2017. Last year he had 174 innings and only kept going out their because Boston had no one else to throw, His era of 5.52 can attest to that
That’s right, in 2018 he only pitched 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 era baseball, with a 4.01 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, and 103 era+.
He was only good for 2.4 fwar in 2018, and just under 2 in 2019.
Clearly you must think he’s ready to retire since and has no value
Good.
Way to shed payroll?
Just bring everybody back?
Then hiring a Tampa executive to cost cut?
Ownership looks like a clown stating it wants to get below $208M and then doing this with Porcello and JBJ.
They still need to contend, and need a mlb ready innings eater to round out the back of the rotation. Nobody on the farm is ready to fill that role, and they aren’t going to be trading for one.
Time for some fresh blood guys… Love Rick but he has seen his better days
Rick is reliable n he loves playing fog the Redsox! He was amazing the act You g yr n seems to have gone outta sync he since then. I really hope he stays!
Just a question.On what basis is Porcello reliable. Do you mean reliable as doesn’t get hurt.Then yes he’s reliable.If you mean reliable as in will go out and throw a lot of
good innings definitely not reliable
He is physically reliable.
Porcello is reliable as in gives a high number of innings without being hurt, and, does so at or above what a member of his slot in the rotation does/should provide.
You claimed in the other thread to be this highly educated individual with all kinds of statistics background.
You then understand that the term “league average” is the other definition of average, the kind you tried to falsely imply I was using multiple times because you didn’t understand it had different types of meaning.
So, league average is the basis of era+, with half of guys being above, and half below. That means your number 3 rotation slot should come in with an era+ of 100 – exactly average. If your #4/5 guys exceed that, it means you’be got extra production out of that slot because not every pitcher can be “average” in that meaning, half need to be below.
Porcello’s era+ in his age 25-30 seasons?
113, 87, 142, 98, 103, 87. Runnin#g 2014 to present. That means if he is your #5 in the rotation he’s exceeded the expected output every year, and played as a #1 (1), #2 (1), #3 (2), and #4/5 (2) seasons respectively.
A good signing for any team who needs a backend starter if the price is right.
Except he apparently did something in your wheaties at some point
So AllSoxFan you’ve consistently painted Porcello as an average starter. I assume based on Wheeelers deal that an average starter should earn a minimum of a 50 to 60 million dollar 3 year contract with all these savvy analytic front officea. So why don’t we let them decide.Lets see the contract Porcello ends up with, If I’m wrong I’ll admit it in the signing article. I’d hope you would do the same
@Willie
I disagree with both your salary valuation, and with your slotting of Porcello.
All wheeler’s salary proves is what the team who wanted him the most had to give xyz dollars to lure him – we don’t know other offers, if a premium was paid based on other considerations, or numerous other factors.
I say, like I’ve claimed all offseason, that porcello is a solid back of the rotation arm that gives some upside and surplus production every other year, on average.
I think he should be signed at a back-of-rotation slotting. Porcello is also on record offering a hometown discount of some nature to boston. He may give a similar discount to another team if they check certain boxes in things he considers important, since he’s already offered one on record to at least one mlb club.
I think the level of interest with multiple clubs being reported as interested speaks to how front offices in need of a dependable #4/5 starter view porcello.
The way you paint porcello, he should be lucky to get a minor league deal with ST invite, since that’s the class you paint him as. So, how about if he signs a major league deal you admit you were wrong, and, if he settles for a minor league contract with ST invite I admit you were right?
If they were going to do this they should have just issued Porcello a QO and only been on the hook for 1 year or would have got a draft pick if he signed elsewhere.
Then they would have to pay him almost $18 million and no team is giving him over $50 mil so no draft pick. So all in all a terrible suggestion.
Terrible suggestion to be on the hook for only 1 year almost $18M?
vs $50M (your plan)?
Where did you go to accounting school?
And if no one is paying him over $50M (your words) and not giving up a draft pick then Boston could have had him back for small money.
If he accepts the QO the Sox could have always signed him to a new contract. I think this has more to do with the management change. They probably didn’t want to do anything significant prior to getting a new GM unless it was a no brainer.
Agreed
Phillies go get this guy. He’s a 30 year old just three years removed from a Cy Young campaign. He’s one of the most durable starters in all of baseball. 2/25mil for the NJ native
They must know something about their 2020 starting pitching that we don’t
Oh we know all right. It’s in the article above.
The Red Sox starting pitching is extremely unreliable and injury-prone. Getting a guy who’s guaranteed 200 Innings would be a godsend.
Anybody that thinks Porcello is getting anywhere near $20m per is insane. He needs to go pitch in SF or SD for a year, reestablish some value after the terrible year he had.
You know teams are aware of park factors and adjust accordingly, right?
He loves the Redsox nation.
Maybe there is a trade in the works for Price or envoli
We can only hope.
Needs to be.
Just to recap: when the Red Sox are interested it’s a great idea, but when the Mets are interested it’s a joke and they’re just being cheap.
I can see the Sox pop for $10 for one year with the hope that this will be his alternate good year after a lackluster 2019. I still think it’s a bad look, however, and, if Porcello bombs out, then it looks even worse for the club’s inability to move forward under a new chief executive. There have to be better budget options, although they’re going fast.
What better budget options. Everyone forgets or just doesn’t want to consider the other Sox planned starters. Given their health, a starter that is dependable in pitching innings has more value than just calculated stats. The innings he eats saves those in the pen from having to use up their bullets. Given the Sox offense, they need dependable innings. I’d rather have a pitcher who can go six+ innings most starts even giving up 4-5 runs as a #5 starter than one gives up 3 but only goes five or less innings. That’s at least one less reliever used per start. My only concern is Porcello fell to being a #5 when he really was expected to be a #3.
I think he’s the jd drew of the recent rotation.
For 2 of his 5 years in boston he quietly went about his business and was slightly better than expected. He had one brilliant but unexpected showing, which made you expect more than maybe we shouldve. Problem is, you still look to see that potential come through and anything less s seen as being failure.
For 3 of his 5 years he was a definite #3 or better. For 2 years he was about a 4/5. Let’s value his seasons though – the cy campaign should’ve been worth about 30m, it’s what verlander made in the similar effort too. His #2/3 seasons combined should be worth about 45m combined. So, a 2 year deal at 11m/per for a #4/5 innings eater? Sounds reasonable.
As high as porcello’s extension under cherington feels it was, I think overall the sox got about the value they paid for.
I really don’t get why the Twins aren’t in on him.
Imagine a Twins rotation of:
Berrios
Bumgarner
Odorizzi
Porcello
Pineda
Porcello doesn’t improve that rotation Madbum does. A Twins rotation of Madbum Berrios Odorizzi Pineda and pitcher x is a good rotation for them. Porcello doesn’t do anything to improve it
Depends on who your x is. Many x’s would be worse than Porcello.
Name starting pitchers who had worse then a 5.52 era last year.Not a lot of them. I can think of no pitcher who went to the hill regularly who had a worse era
Guess I don’t value Porcello (or most any young players) on one season. I expect him to regress toward previous year’s performance because he’s still young. Not like he’s in mid-30’s decline.
Don’t forget ERAs were signifcantly inflated in 2019 by the superball MLB decided to introduce. With that superball being retired, ERAs, including Porcello’s ERA, will drop. I bet his ERA is mid-4 or better next year. That’s fine for a #5.
Willie doesn’t let facts or reason get in the way of trying to spin slected stats while ignoring metrics.
2019 had a high era (which is as much a team stat was wins/losses) even though FIP (4.76), fwar (1.8), and era+ (87) we’re much better even if not spectacular.
Chall it up to someone who doesn’t understand these things and let him have his anti-rick crusade I suppose
Also Mo, remember out exchange in the Cole thread?
A couple posts down Willie admits to being a Yankees fan. There’s one of your trolls visiting us just cherry picking to bash a player
I would think anything over 8M/1 yr. and the Sox pass. Porcello was really, really bad last year, and while I’d bet on a bit of a comeback, I wouldn’t bet much. Yet given the paucity of SPs out there, and with a renewed appreciation of same, I can see him getting something in the Kyle Gibson range.
Just not from the Sox……
You know what, you’re absolutely right. I can remember cringing every time he took the hill. I would tell my buddies we could win as long as we score more than five runs LOL. Probably best we pass on this guy I’ve seen enough.
Hey Gary.Here’s some proof. I’m a Yankee fan and I smiled every time I heard Rick Porcello was taking the mound for Boston
Yes I hear you. Have to score 6 runs to win if this guy is pitching.
That has happened a lot in his career. He is one of the luckiest guys around with high run support
You don’t hear of players giving discounts to favored teams much anymore.
Aren’t the Red Sox trying to get under Lux Tax?
Ive been watching this guy pitch for 5 years for 162 games for my team, he is NOT that good, reliable in the sense that yes he takes the ball but if anyone watches the red sox like me he doesnt go more than 5 1/2 innings anymore barely 6 if hes lucky and hes home run prone, while saying he wants to stay is wonderful.. what do you THINK hes gonna say? ‘ i want to be traded’? ask yourself, what player says that? this is BOSTON, not Miami, of course he wants to be here, hes just not that good, he will do better in the NL in a less homer friendly division, i wont name teams cause i truly dont know who can or cant pay him, 3 or more years is not only insane but not even remotely possible, he will get 2 years on a team thats good but nowhere near competing who needs a human body to throw the baseball every 5 days, thats IT. Not a guy you will lean on to win a WS, So dont look for the Astros , dodgers, Yankees to even mention this guys name.
I think he’s a little better than you give him credit for but he does have a bad inning in many of his starts. Known him since high school here in New Jersey, he’s been taking the ball for quite some time now. I think he’s got more years in him. He reminds me a little of the 2004 pitchers Lowe and Arroyo. Again, not great but can be good to have on your team.
I honestly see him and JBJ together being traded to the same team to cut payroll, for the sake of argument ill say the reds, different division, less fans, wont have the ‘win now’ atmosphere, they will do better.
Why sign Porcello to trade him to cut salary? He isnt getting much back at any price.
Kicking the tires on a guy who’s pitched for them the last five years, with 159 starts? I think they know him by now. He has a pattern of having a good year every other year, and last year was a down year. If they’re going to sign him, it might as well be for three years, then they’ll get two good years out of three.
My dad heard someone make a similar point on the radio the other day. I got a chuckle out of it when looked at his stats the last few years and saw how true it was.
Ye olde fake bawl doth hurt the Redd Socks pictures more than any other olde town team. When mlb in their negative infinite wisdom goes back to the real ball instead of the pseudo PED bawl, the Redd Socks pitching will be much improved. When the new fangled lectronic strike zone hath become the replacement umpire, the Redd Soxx pitching will improve even more. The fake bawl and the pounding of the dugout ceiling will stoppeth over time and there will be a quiet domination by the Redd Socks for they hath been sore victimized by the suspiciousness of the fake bawl and the badd umpiring that has cast aspersions upon the great game of basebawl.
Whoah brothA!
Looking forward to that lectronic strike zone. I don’t know whether it favors the Red Sox or not, but watching the way umps manipulate pitchers and batters with their shifting strike zones is simply maddening. The lectronic strike zone is already proven to be more accurate and it will obviously be consistent. I say bring it on!
End of framing!
I didn’t strike out, I was framed!
Porcello needs a trial deal like a 1/10 million deal. Prove that you are back from the offseason.
Also, prove that the 5.5 ERA was inflated by the superball at least as much as it was by an off year.
Porcello is the Sam Bradford of starting pitchers
On his way to the Metropolitans
He”ll accept 2 yrs/22 million from the BoSox. And that’s probably a good deal for him and the team.
Boston is trying to shed payroll. Why give Porcello, who I like, that money coming off a 5 plus ERA season? Let Houck, D Hernandez fight it out for the 5th starter spot. Either should have a better ERA for league minimum. I get Porcello could bounce back but it isnt worth the money for the team’s goals for 2020.
D Hernandez is going to be in the pen
Shouldnt be.
He made over 21 million last season. Eleven million would be saved for an innings eating pitcher who will probably rebound next year. I wish we could trust Houck or Hernandez but that’s just a roll of the dice. You know what you’re getting with Porcello, even if it’s only a fifth starter.
But you have a good point.
Saved from last year but doesnt address the desire to really shed payroll. I like Rick but it is a better roll of the dice w the young guys. If at midyear they are doing well and need a #5 and are willing to exceed payroll, plenty of arms become available. The season hinges on the top 4 of the rotation, not #5.
A midyear pickup requires prospect capital to acquire. There’s not much in the system, and, you can’t keep trading your low a guys away for a 3 month rental or you’ll never develop anything back.
How is the time to get the pieces you think you might need, and use the deadline to address unforseen holes you didn’t have a way to predict if it’s likely to push you over the top.
They have plenty to fill their immediate holes as it stands and enough to get a 5th starter midyear if one is needed. If they need more than what they can get with their farm, they shouldn’t be buyers.
My guess is that the Angels and Red Sox will work out a trade for David Price. The Angels can afford the rest of his contract, and Price might prefer to pitch for Joe Maddon. And a Price trade probably wouldn’t require much in the way of prospects, especially if the Angels take on the rest of the money owed. The Angels want starting pitching, and the Red Sox want to shed salary. The two teams seem like a good match.
Let Porcello go, watch another team overpay him, need some new juice on the mound.
I think that amount is about right for him