Minor league signings aren’t often that compelling, but the Padres did make an intriguing pickup on a non-guaranteed deal this past weekend. The club added to a crowded picture at second base by inking former star Brian Dozier to a low-risk pact. It was somewhat of a surprise outcome in free agency for Dozier, as even though he’s not the huge-hitting, base-stealing standout he was in his Twins heyday, he was still fairly productive in 2019.
As a member of last year’s World Series-winning Nationals, Dozier batted .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs in 482 plate appearances. Those numbers essentially made the 32-year-old Dozier a league-average hitter (99 wRC+) and overall producer (1.7 fWAR). So, from the Padres’ perspective, there’s little to no harm in giving Dozier a shot on a deal that’ll only amount to $2.2MM if he makes their roster.
Second base was something of a sore spot in 2019 for San Diego, which received almost nothing from the now-retired Ian Kinsler and saw once-touted prospect Luis Urias struggle. Consequently, the Padres have reshuffled at the position since last season ended.
Well before the Dozier signing, the Padres traded Urias to the Brewers in a swap that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego. A few days after that, the Padres replaced Urias in a different trade, acquiring Jurickson Profar from the Athletics for young catcher Austin Allen. Profar’s due to earn $5.7MM this season in his last year of arbitration control, but that’s not a guaranteed sum until the season begins. It’s unlikely to happen, but the Padres will be able to move on from Profar this spring if he flounders in their second base competition. Notably, the switch-hitting Profar, 27, hasn’t performed all that well since he debuted with the Rangers as an elite prospect in 2012. His difficulties continued last season in his lone year in Oakland, as he hit .218/.301/.410 with 20 homers and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA.
Dozier was more productive than Profar in 2019, and so was fellow Padre Greg Garcia. He batted .248/.364/.354 en route to 1.4 fWAR over 372 trips to the plate. However, the lefty-hitting 30-year-old wasn’t an option against same-handed pitchers. Conversely, Profar owned lefties while faring poorly versus righties. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune notes, the plan had been for Profar and Garcia to platoon at second. That could still end up happening, but the addition of the right-handed Dozier – who has historically smacked lefties around – could throw a wrench into a Profar-Garcia tandem. Garcia doesn’t have a minor league option remaining, though, meaning he could wind up with another organization if he doesn’t make the Padres’ season-opening roster.
Dozier, Profar and Garcia are the main combatants in San Diego’s second base competition, though the team does have a few other possibilities in the mix. The versatile Ty France totaled 17 major league appearances at the keystone last season. His production wasn’t great in the bigs, whereas he utterly pulverized Triple-A pitching, hitting a video game-like .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs (196 wRC+) in 348 plate appearances. He’s on the Padres’ 40-man roster, as is Breyvic Valera, whom they claimed on waivers a couple weeks ago. Valera has put up nice numbers in the minors, but the 28-year-old switch hitter has fallen flat in multiple MLB stops. Unlike France, Valera’s out of options, so he could head back to the waiver wire if he doesn’t hold his own in camp.
That group aside, the Padres also have other second base-capable players around (Gordon Beckham, Esteban Quiroz, Ivan Castillo and Hudson Potts, to name a few), but they’re all in camp as non-roster invitees. Odds are that they’re not realistically going to push for the second base job. On the other hand, even though Dozier’s a fellow NRI, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the accomplished veteran open the year in San Diego. In the meantime, the club’s in for an interesting keystone competition over the next month.
I thought that the “can cut a player before the season begins and only pay him 30 days termination pay” rule only applies to players with less than 5 years of service, so not Profar. Could be wrong though. And if I am I’m sure someone will correct me.
The article is correct. Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed.
Barring health or some crazy bad spring I expect profar to be the starter but not necessarily the every day type. He had strong batted ball data that suggested bad luck (yes I know about the throwing issues)
They can’t afford to have production similar to what they got last year at 2nd. Too bad that’s what the Padres are looking at.
Garcia is a good role player but if Profar doesn’t rebound it’s a weak link. Which is why The Dozier got a deal. Holding on for life.
They’ll figure it out.
Garcia is a nice on base guy and really nothing more. Profar can play RF, 2B and 1st so a super utility spot would probably be his best bet paltooning w Hosmer if he continues to suck against lefties while leaving Myers alone in RF all year. $5.7 is a hefty tag for a utility guy but Preller does love this dude. I think Dozier makes the squad and Garcia is cut or traded, while Valera is cut.
Stop.talking.
If he can play passable defense, they should really give Ty France a long look at 2nd base this year. He did hit 7 HRs for the Padres last season in about 185 MLB ABs and he absolutely dominated AAA, hitting .400 with 27 HRs.
He’s not a daily 2B. He can fill in there as needed but he’s not a primary option. I’d love for him to make the team and either platoon at 1B or back up all over the place as a bench bat. He’s even been working behind the plate to be a competent emergency catcher, which frees up some options such as pinch-hitting for Hedges after the starting pitcher comes out.
Will myers for Robinson Cano.
At this point why not. Although something tells me Wil is going to rebound for a very productive season.
Could Padres
Trade W Myers + Prospects for Dee Gordon ?
Could Padres
Trade W Myers + Prospects for Dee Gordon ?
Could Padres
Trade W Myers + Prospects for Dee Gordon ?
Could Padres
Trade W Myers + Prospects for Dee Gordon ?
Could Padres
Trade W Myers + Prospects for Dee Gordon ?
I’ll just say this once. No.
I don’t want a PED using cheater anywhere near my team.
I’m guessing you either weren’t alive in the 90’s or weren’t a Padres fan?
I was. Which has nothing to do with it. Only cheaters want cheaters. You must be an Astros fan.
My point was because the 90’s Padres featured several steroid users which helped them to their last pennant.
I’m fine with the fact that you don’t want Gordon on your team. I wouldn’t either, but mostly because he is not worth what he is paid.
He could take barrell full of steroids and as Comic Book Guy once said: “Oh please, you couldn’t turn in to Bill Bixby!”. Wouldn’t help him
I was talking about Cano.
Again, one has nothing to do with the other.
Besides that, “the 90’s” covers a lot of teams. You’re lumping them all together? Even before the steroid thing was dicovered to be so widespread?
With their farm system I find it hard to believe they cannot figure out a positional move with one of their young athletes to 2b. Plus, I cannot wait to see Tatis Jr play this year. He’s going to be so good.
That’s why they were looking at Lindor and Senzel. The price would have probably been Gore, Patiño and a few position players for Senzel and even more for Lindor.
Dozier is a good, solid low risk pickup at second base. I hope they hang on to Greg Garcia.
Whoever threw that trade idea out is smoking crack. The price may be one of Gore OR Patiño plus others, which I still think is too high of a price. Expecting both in a trade is insane.
Is it possible, and maybe highly probably, that the Padres farm system is a lot more flash than substance……it seems like all we read about are continual signings by the Rock Star GM….does he know what he’s doing…..seems not!
Part of its the umps. The Padres recieve one of the worst strike zones in baseball. Hard to replicate success you had in the minors (France) when the umps take the bat out of your hand.
When you are talking about flash v substance, I agree. I can’t believe believe bums like Tatis and Paddack are even on the team. And Quantrill, Lamet & Lucchesi.
Ship them all to the RS for a box of hogies.
So … you’ve only got two guys who actually project as above average big league players. You’ve got two who are still figuring it out, and are unknown quantities. And then you’ve got Lucchessi, who seems to be a solid 4 or 5.
Come back and defend Preller when he learns how to put a winning roster together.
Royals fan here. I know this probably won’t happen but if the Padres offered enough young talent they would probably trade Whitt Merrifield to them. Whitt just may be the best 2nd baseman in baseball. I guess it depends on how much the Padres really want to win.
Jose Altuve and DJ lemahieu are better.
Ozzie Albies enters chat
Altuve is a cheater. Lameihue had 1 good year
Except that it wasn’t LeMahieu’s first good year, as he was also really good in 2016 and did alright in 2015, 2016 and 2017. You are right about Altuve, though.
Dayton Moore publicly shot down the idea of trading Merrifield. He’s potentially still available, of course, but KC would want an awful lot for him since he’s under team control until 2023.
“Whitt just may be the best 2nd baseman in baseball”
Was this a joke?
No. He is if not the best one of the best 2nd baseman in all of baseball.
What a retarded claim for someone that can use the internet. By what metric?
Should have kept Urias as a lottery ticket. To compete against the Dodgers (and D’Backs) they need to catch lightning in a bottle. Profar/Dozier are too low risk/low reward.
Profar and Dozier are 1 year stop gaps until the prospects get more seasoning.
Owen Miller, Hudson Potts, Cronenworth all rank within the Padres top 30 prospects.
They have lesser known names like Esteban Quiroz and Jason Vosler who should be given a shot this spring.
Ty France should be given a longer look.
I think they’re waiting for C.J. Abrams to be ready. That kid is really good.
He’ll play his first full season of pro ball this year. He shouldn’t be in the conversation until the middle of 2021 at the very least, and that’s if he goes full Tatis and scorches his way through every level while answering all the defensive questions. The kid will be good, but it’s way too early to be looking at how he fits into future rosters.
Abrams is fast becoming our future CF. Trammell will be a LF in The Show.
Also, Jake Cronenworth is a candidate, because SS and 3b are not going to be open any time soon…
Padres have a good problem on their hands. Dozier, Profar are good. I would love to see France and Valera, they have the most upside.
Profar is NOT good. And Preller seems to know it by stocking up on second base candidates. But – it’s Preller. The guy who thought Bryan Mitchell was good. The guy who signed a has-been Ian Kinsler to a 2yr/8mil deal and made him the starter. The guy who way over-paid for Hosmer. The guy who gave Wil Myers an outrageous extension that he may never live up to. The guy who … well, you get it.
Dozier has been in a rut. I think, for him, it is mostly mental. If Tingler is anything like say a Rocco Baldelli in unlocking a player’s mental blocks, Dozier will do well. This is based on ZERO evidence but I think they may have found lightning in a bottle with Dozier. He will platoon early in the year, get in one of his patented hot streaks, and claim the starting job well before mid-season. If they get over 2.5 WAR out of him, this is a huge steal.
Tell that to the astros…….
More of the same for my Padres. 90 losses or thereabouts. They did nothing dramatic during the off season. Machado, Hosmer, Myers; those signings were all show. It’s only about money. San Diego is a dead end for sports franchises. Always has been.
I think they’ll finish around .500 or so if their pitching holds up. The NL west is tough.
I’d rather they continue improving than do “something dramatic” every offseason. While the Padres are busy making high profile, high dollar free agent signings, the Dodgers are winning the division every year with mostly homegrown talent.
Pretty much every projection out there has them at or above .500 with a good shot of contending for a Wild Card spot. This team has improved in every phase over last year’s roster.
No they don’t. The highest ONE I’ve seen is 81, with most from 76-80.
Might want to check again because Zips has them at 87 and in the playoffs, FanGraphs has them at 82, USA Today has them at 83, Action has them at 84, Clay Davenport has them at 85… a lot more than ONE projection thinks they’re going over .500
Why play the season, we’ve got “projections!”
Have you ever compared any of those click-bait projections to reality? Even Fangraphs gives themselves +/- 10 games of accuracy, and in an article on these things, they admit its closer to 15 games! That renders them meaningless; its just an exercise in killing time.
By the way, PECOTA has them at 75 wins.
All we had to do was look at your incredibly stupid username “SD HotDawg” to determine that nothing you can possibly say on these forums can be credible. The end.
I was hoping Esteban Quiroz or Jason Vosler would get a September call up and see what they have to offer since that was a blackhole last year. Both were acquired last off season for Colton Brewer and Rowan Wick.
Preller needs to win so expect the veterans over kids needing a look.
Dozier does bring a World Series ring with him and is coming off of six straight seasons with at least 20 Home Runs.
Profar seems better suited for moving around as a super utility instead of being locked in to one position.
Garcia is a bench player who probably played more than he would have had it not been for injuries to Tatis and terrible production from Kinsler.
Valera will be gone soon enough
I see why some want bn to get France an opportunity.
France
Garcia
Dozier
Profar
Profar looks like the weakest candidate at this point.
After 1 game, you’re placing France as the favorite? He had opportunities last year but didn’t win it outright. hmm, yeah, I don’t think so.
I like a combination of whichever two perform best.
Garcia Lh
France Rh
Profar S
Dozier Rh
Seems like you would go
Dozier/Garcia
Dozier/Profar
Garcia/France
Or any combination which gives you the best matchups
I would give Profar first look. Garcia is a consistent on base guy ( as consistent as we have) so he’s always in the mix. I like Dozier and he should get a look but I’m not really sold on France from a defensive aspect.
France is a big dude. He looks a little out of place at second.
Most of France’s development has been at third base. He also has quite a few games at first base. Keep in mind that Preller actually thought Myers could play third.
Down with Brown!
How does mutt Preller keep his job trotting out Dozier and Profar
Its amazing that he keep his job with any of these moves which are documented each and every day on this site….they’re always in on every Free Agent, constantly signing every discarded veteran ballplayer as a “stopgap” position move, and are always touting their farm system which doesn’t; seem to provide the major league club with overwhelming prospects…….never happy with the completion of the club…..how does Preller keep his job?
The farm system has been built for a while but has just started producing. The farm system just produced Tatis and Paddack last year. A TOR and a SS that any team would kill to have. There is a more coming this year. Their minor leagues are producing just fine.
I get its fashionable to pound on AJ, but he has brought in more and better prospects in his 5 years than Kevin Towers, Sandy Alderson, Jed Hoyer, Omar Minaya, and Josh Byrnes ever did. It is fair to point out all these predecessors worked under ownership that didnt spend money. What is still undetermined is can he develop that talent. A large reason Green is gone, Tingler is in and the entire on field staff other than Glenn Hoffman and Skip Schumaker was pulled togther to get results from these prospects at the ML level.
What you are describing is due diligence in the mind of this Padres fan. Sure its annoying that he hedges his bets alot and could have avoided many pit falls.. People were saying the system purge of 14/15 was going to set them back 5 to 7 yrs. Bottom line their system top to bottom sucked. When its all said and done they missed on Trea Turner and Max Fried. Tatis and Paddack equalize that. Brad Hand, Drew Pomeranz the first time, Kirby Yates, Craig Stammem. Pedro Avila for Derek Norris. Josh Naylor for Andrew Cashner. Even Luis Castillo Aj was right on. The punishment many feel AJ never got is knowing Castillo could have been a Padre if the medicals were handled properly.
The post Mike Dee actual build started with the 2106 J2 class. Successful draft classes since then while only having one draft year picking in the top 5 supplemented the J2 class. The Padres were hammered mercilessly for tanking and their rule 5 draft strategy in successive years. All the while they still have all 4 players they carried on the ML roster in 2016/2017 (Luis Perdomo, Allen Cordoba, Luis Torrens, and Miguel Diaz)
The Padres system under Preller has never had “cant miss” prospects outside of Mackenzie Gore. Their sysetm is rated high due to the depth at every level. 19 or their currentl system top 30 are 21 yrs old or younger. There is another half dozen like Efrain Contreres, Omar Cruz, Osvaldo Hernandez that would be in the top 30 in many other systems.
They have to develop them now and the new staff hired is focused on that.. Its been 4yrs. to flip an entire system and set up a foundation to fix the problems of the past. 2 decades. There have been setbacks and there will be more. However its far more appealing than the group I listed above throwing their hands in the air and hoping it gets better.
This is Preller’s SIXTH full year. He began the teardown by adding payroll in 2015. It sounds counter-intuitive, but if you look up an article ion Fangraphs titled “Is Rebuilding Worth It,” what he did should be crystal clear. And stop giving him a pass by blaming Mike Dee.
Padre fans are hoping Padres next Astros
@Injediwetrust Pretty much spot on. Much better comments than the detractors who fail to provide any level of lucid analysis. Ownership supported Preller’s aggressive moves in the beginning of his tenure, it created a lot of hype and excitement, and ultimately failed in results. So Preller set out to totally rebuild from the ground up through drafting, trades, and international signings, again with ownership’s support. Now, after an extremely disappointing second half in 2019, ownership, while still supporting Preller, says we need to see positive momentum in the standings., or as Fowler stated “heads will roll and mine will be the first one”. So to answer the original question, Preller still has his job because ownership still supports him.
Ooh! Ooh! I know who their 2B should be!
His name is Luis Urias.
Best name of the year award goes to this guy. You my friend have brought dedication to a whole new level. Bringing the Mike Embleton Facebook debacle to MLB Trade Rumors… You’re my hero.
Padres Fan here…… I vote for Brian Dozier to start for us at Second, with Greg getting a lot of time right behind him (at Second), and give Profar plenty of playing time at Left Field, and First Base.