Most or all of last year’s division winners figure to enter the upcoming season as the favorites to repeat, but some degree of turnover is inevitable. Last season, for instance, three of the game’s six divisions crowned new champions. You never know which winner(s) from a year ago will off, but you can make educated guesses based on the offseasons clubs have had. With spring training right around the corner, let’s begin by taking a look at how the reigning AL divisions champs have fared this winter. All of those clubs won 100-plus games and took home their divisions by large margins in 2019. Has the gap closed on any of them?
AL West – Astros (107-65; won division by 10 games):
- As those who follow the game even a little bit know, this has been the winter of discontent for the typically dominant Astros. There’s no more GM Jeff Luhnow or manager A.J. Hinch, both fired for their roles in the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal. They’ve since been replaced by James Click and Dusty Baker, respectively. Those two are in the strange spot of inheriting a team that, despite three straight 100-win seasons and last year’s AL pennant, is in a tumultuous position. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but the Astros have lost some of their major pieces from 2019 (Gerrit Cole, Will Harris, Wade Miley and Robinson Chirinos) and, thanks in part to luxury-tax concerns, haven’t really made any moves to get better. Meanwhile, their greatest challenger in the AL West, Oakland, continues to look formidable, and two of the division’s other teams (the Rangers and Angels) have worked hard to improve themselves.
AL East – Yankees (103-59; won division by seven games)
- New York’s a popular World Series pick after swiping Cole from Houston, though the Yankees’ rotation suffered a blow earlier this week with the announcement that lefty James Paxton will miss three to four months after undergoing back surgery. It’s the latest notable injury for a Yankees team that endured one after another a season ago. Despite Paxton’s issues and the Tommy John surgery center fielder Aaron Hicks underwent last fall, the club’s clearly banking on better health in 2020, as it hasn’t made any major transactions aside from signing Cole and re-upping outfielder Brett Gardner (both were important moves, granted). The Yanks also lost two longtime key contributors – shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – to free agency, though they did just fine last year despite having to go significant stretches without them (Betances essentially missed the whole season). Looking around their division, the Yankees remain the clear front-runners, though the Rays should be legitimate challengers again. The Red Sox are in line to get markedly worse if their Mookie Betts trade goes through; the Blue Jays have upgraded their roster, but they still look a ways away from seriously taking on the Yankees; and there’s no doubt the Orioles will be the division’s whipping boys yet again.
AL Central – Twins (101-61; won division by eight games)
- An offense that set the all-time home run record with 307 last season has seemingly gotten even stronger this winter with the signing of $92MM third baseman Josh Donaldson, who smacked 37 as a Brave in 2019. While the Twins’ offense is terrifying, there’s less certainty surrounding its pitching staff. Minnesota hasn’t been able to pull in an ace-type starter since the prior campaign concluded, but it has been active in addressing its rotation. Jake Odorizzi’s back, having accepted the Twins’ qualifying offer. So is Michael Pineda, whom they re-signed on a multiyear deal, though he’ll miss the early portion of 2020 as a result of a PED suspension from last season. Likewise, new addition Rich Hill (injured) won’t be ready from the outset. But the Twins did bring in revived veteran Homer Bailey alongside Hill, and if the aforementioned Betts trade becomes official, they’ll also pick up the underrated Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Minnesota will continue to look like a quality team even if the Maeda addition falls through, but it could face more resistance in its division. The Indians haven’t made many (any?) high-end acquisitions in recent months, but they still boast a solid roster. The White Sox appear to have gotten much better thanks to a slew of noteworthy moves, and even the last-place Tigers have made an effort to increase their talent.
nick effing punto
I have one word to describe the Astros…garbage
jd396
What’s with all the trashy Astros jokes…
delete
It is freaking outrageous that comments are disabled on the MLBTR Houston Astros cheating article where it is revealed that the Astros were also cheating on the road and had an entire department that they referred to as their “dark arts sign stealing department”
martras
This just in… The Houston Astros were involved in a cheating scandal and the front office knew about it!
There weren’t really any new findings as to more people being involved, just information as to the extent of the issue everybody already knew about. People are free to continue to rant in countless other threads… like this one if they want, I suppose, but you’re just beating a dead horse.
delete
Did you even read the article? There were several new findings. Also just for a future reference, it’s not a dead horse when breaking news is still coming out about it every few days. Sorry to burst your bubble
66TheNumberOfTheBest
I don’t understand why…
Articles that involve things like domestic abuse where the debates devolve into non-baseball related stuff, I understand that.
But, why limit discussion on this topic?
longpantslow
Yea they stink.
LouisianaAstros
We are loving every minute of it as well.
Biggest target in the AL.
HalosHeavenJJ
Today’s Wall Street Journal article buries Houston even more and shreds any doubt about Lunhow’s claims of naivety or integrity. Well worth a read.
Psychguy
and yet still no apologies…
athleticsnchill
Speaking of naive, anyone that didn’t think a guy that worked for McKinsey & Co wouldn’t know everything going on with his team…
HalosHeavenJJ
When your best defense is negligence, you suck.
someoldguy
We haven’t heard much on the superball offense supposedly being shelved by the MLB as they tweak the ball to lower the HR total… how till that affect teams who rely for HR for their offense… so many more routine fly balls will be in the offing IF the MLB does its JOB..
bobtillman
The single most impactful event of the off season. Will alter the “launch angle” ( a fallacy to begin with) theology significantly. Just one of the impacts; the need for real defensive OFs.
Excellent point.
burnt_reynolds
I hate to say this but I’ll say it regardless: Gerrit Cole looks objectively worse without a beard.
sithdude
lol agree. And worse without an Angels uniform on :(. Congrats on the signing Yankee fans and at least he’s out of the AL West.
Kemajic
Byrne writes a sizeable treatment on where the Yankees are relative to last year, yet doesn’t even mention the loss of 18 game winner Domingo Germán, for nearly half the season. Every bit as painful as the loss of Paxton.
xSpecBx
German is only out for part of the season and the suspension was retroactive to when he was suspended at the end of last season. He will miss 63 games in 2020 which, for a pitcher is like 12 or 13 starts. Not insignificant, but he’ll be back. Severino is also back, Jordan Montgomery is healthy again and hopefully Happ can bounce back. They have a few young guy in the minors who have started before and Paxton will probably be back after the All star break. They’re not in bad shape overall for SP.
sadosfan
Whipping boys
chicagofan1978
So now 11 minutes after a story is published comments are disabled? Cool
sadosfan
They were probably deleting more inappropriate comments than keeping them.
bigjonliljon
And for a site that is all about rumors……
Pretty disgraceful the comments are censored
Jim Carter
Just read the emerging details regarding the Astros scandal. I can see now why they excel at analytics. After reading words/terms like “dark arts” and “codebreaker”, it’s obvious that baseball has too many geeks! It sounds like dialog from some inane movie about outcast kids who get beaten up at school.
Psychguy
Are you saying it’s “Revenge of the Nerds?”
All American Johnsonville Dogs
Yeah all those nerds in robotics club back in the day now making 6 even 7 figs while you were prom king who’s currently working minimum wage somewhere really chose the wrong avenue in life.
Psychguy
Harsh?
Devildog_2123
Thats why in hs you always make sure you have one nerd friend so you can live in his future pool house and hang with his hot maid
2012orioles
Why no comments on the Astros article? This is baseball talk! Jeff Todds call? Or MLBtr?
delete
I agree. It’s a travesty and disrespectful to the followers of the site.
pasha2k
Lol gotta love the RS getting worse line! There is so much drama in Boston, n now I hear the Astros cheating started in 2016, before Cora. It’s a good time to bring back the Brockstar!!!!!
ben4ben
The yankees being better than they were last year depends on if the balls are juiced or not
southbeachbully
@ben4ben
Yanks were second to the Twins last year, #1 in 2018 and 2017, Your point? If the ball was juiced it was juiced for everyone. So if the Yanks regress so does everyone else and since they were #1 or #2 for the last 3 years, chances are they’ll be better. If the replacement guys regress then the players they covered for will likely have better seasons than 2019 (Judge, Andujar, Stanton, etc).
jdgoat
Jeff Luhnow sucks!!!
desertbull
Well since the Astros are being protected from comments in the story about their cheating I’ll comment here.
Suspend the entire organization for the 2020 season.
Clayton Russell
This is what I’ve said all along. The NCAA calls it the death penalty, so there’s some precedent in major sports at least, if not professional. The NCAA is also not afraid to vacate championships when it makes sense. It would be messy, but seems a fair punishment based on the extent of the crime.
bigjonliljon
MLB commissioner protecting them too it appears
desertbull
Every AL team is going to be head hunting the Astro’s this season.
I can’t wait!!!
Bt5201
Dan Connolly going to ask Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal about Dark Arts and Codebreaker.
Cheaters and Liars.
empirejim
so much for Astros fans trying to spin the old” They were better on the road so the cheating wasn’t an issue”… And they expect us to believe that they up and decided to stop all on their own….
Time for Manfred to grow a pair and strip their title
ifyouaintcheatingyouainttrying
Were they better on the road?
delete
Than they would have been if they hadn’t been cheating? Quite significantly most likely. Thanks for your question.
phatboi69
Did Altuve wear a buzzer, yes or no? There’s no way Hinch didn’t know. why spin the answer if it was an obvious no.
empirejim
Same with the, “Is the 2017 Title tainted?” All he did was dodge. I appreciate that he is taking responsibility for his role, but the lack of frank, honest answers is troubling.
bigdaddyhacks
The Astros are THE stain on baseball. It’s not Pete rose or the black Sox or steroids. It’s the 17-19 Houston Astros. It’s egregious, it really is.
martras
I’d say the only team who is almost guaranteed a spot in the playoffs of these 3 division winners is the Yankees, though I also think odds hinge a lot on the Betts and Price trade remaining in limbo.
The Yankees come back with a better rotation featuring another dominant ace-caliber starter. Elite arms win in the regular season and in the playoffs. Boston’s playoff odds probably take a bigger drop from losing Price (replaced by Graterol in AAA) than Betts (replaced by Verdugo in MLB) in 2020, but Boston keeps a lot of very good core players and a team that still finished above .500 last year. A lot probably hinges on Sale, to be honest.
The Twins are a bit in limbo with a very questionable rotation at the moment. Like the Rangers of the early/mid 2000s, having elite run production doesn’t mean you make it to the playoffs, much less win in the playoffs. It’s hard for even elite offenses to hang 4+ runs on Cy Young candidates. I think the White Sox could turn into a very dangerous team depending on how some of their young rotation pieces bounce back or grow this year while the Twins have very little to count on in their rotation behind Berrios without the addition of Maeda happening. I don’t care how bullish MLBTR might be on Odorizzi. A starter who can’t go more than 5 innings, puts quite a few guys on base, stranded a high number of runners, gives up a lot of hard contact and saw his HR/FB rate drop last year suggests there’s plenty of room for regression.
When it comes to the Astros, losing Cole hurts a lot in a division which saw the Angels likely take a major step forward. At the start of the season Greinke (36) and Verlander (37) are both late in their careers with Greinke being particularly exposed to the potential for sudden major decline. The Athletics aren’t going to be as lucky as they were last year, but they’re still a team which should finish over .500 as well. It’s not a pushover division the Astros will be playing against, and that makes things more interesting to a team which is going to be feeling the fallout from their major cheating scandal for years to come. Their championship window probably starts slamming shut sooner than later.
A'sfaninLondonUK
In what way “aren’t A’s going to be as lucky as last year”?
Consecutive 97 win seasons in 2018 & 2019 might suggest there wasn’t a whole lot of luck involved….
PinstripedPride
Boston won’t even have Graterol as a replacement now. They screwed up that deal on the pitching side of things. Sadly we now see a player with the name “Jeter” in Beantown, but he’s a knockoff of the real thing. If Graterol turns into Josh Hader then the Sox made a bad move renegotiating to avoid him
richt
What’s wrong with Odorizzi’s back?
soylentwill
Apparently it excepted the QO.
Finlander
The As should be even better this year with Luzardo, Manaea and Puk ready to go. That pitching staff may create a little Fiers in the Astros lineup.