The Blue Jays finally made some rotation investments this winter. Most of the money went to Hyun-jin Ryu, but Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson (the latter acquired via trade) each also enjoy sizable guarantees that lock them into the starting staff. With a $4.2MM arbitration deal, Matt Shoemaker is also slated for a rotation spot.
So what of all the arms the Jays have been accumulating of late? The club has loaded its roster with options. They’re now engaged in a sort of battle royale in camp, all striving to impress the Toronto brain trust. The fifth rotation spot is certainly the top prize to be claimed. But the bullpen mix is anything but settled, offering additional paths to the majors. And the Jays will also be lining up their depth chart in the upper minors. 40-man roster pressures could force the club to drop a few players, so the competitors face downside scenarios as well.
Here’s the slate of candidates …
- Trent Thornton: The 26-year-old held down a rotation spot last year, ultimately throwing 154 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball in his debut campaign. He entered camp as the odds-on favorite and is probably the sturdiest candidate with a solid-but-not-exceptional minor-league track record, varied pitch mix, and full season of durable MLB work on his resume.
- Shun Yamaguchi: The long-time Japanese star will be on the MLB roster in some manner after signing a two-year deal. He was a highly effective starter in Nippon Professional Baseball just last year, but also has spent a lot of time working at the back of a bullpen.
- Anthony Kay: The well-regarded lefty had a nice showing at Triple-A last year after coming over via mid-season trade and was rewarded with a late-season promotion. His full 2019 totals from the upper minors — 133 2/3 innings, 2.96 ERA, 9.1 K/9 vs. 3.8 BB/9 — suggest that Kay is just about ready for a full big-league audition.
- Jacob Waguespack: Yet another recent acquisition who got his first shot in the majors last year with the Jays, Waguespack had to be pleased with his initial showing (4.38 ERA, 63:29 K/BB in 78 innings). His deep pitch mix and general track record present a profile roughly similar to that of Thornton.
- T.J. Zeuch: Yep, Zeuch also just saw his first MLB action last year, though he’s a homegrown product and only threw 22 2/3 frames in the majors. The sinkerballer spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked to a 3.69 ERA in 78 frames while generating a 57.1% groundball rate but just 4.5 K/9. Zeuch did show that he can get some swings and misses (9.9%) in the majors, it’s fair to note.
- Sean Reid-Foley: The former second-round draft pick has struck out 10.1 batters per nine in his minor-league career. Unfortunately, he has never really sorted out his walk issues, having dished out 86 free passes in 120 2/3 total innings last year. Reid-Foley spent most of 2019 at Triple-A, where he coughed up 6.47 earned runs per nine over 89 frames.
- Ryan Borucki: Still just 25 years of age, Borucki had a nice 2018 big-league debut. But after 17 starts of 3.87 ERA ball in his rookie campaign, the southpaw stumbled through an injury-limited 2019 season. Borucki surely would’ve been given every chance to make a run at a rotation job in camp but has unfortunately been halted by ongoing elbow issues. He’ll need to get healthy to put himself back on the map.
- Wilmer Font: Font is something of a grizzled journeyman already at 29 years of age. He has already appeared with seven MLB clubs, including five in the past two seasons. Font started 14 games last year for the Jays but threw only 39 1/3 innings in his 23 total appearances in Toronto. While he has plenty of experience in the minors as a true starter, Font likely factors as a possible opener or spot start candidate rather than a true competitor for the fifth rotation opening.
- Yennsy Diaz: Diaz was rewarded with one MLB appearance last year after a strong season at Double-A (144 1/3 innings, 3.74 ERA, 7.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9). The 23-year-old would need to wow in camp. He’s likelier to continue developing in the minors.
- Tom Hatch, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Julian Merryweather: These four righties all hold 40-man roster spots and have yet to debut in the majors. The first three haven’t yet reached Triple-A, while Merryweather is coming off of an injury riddled 2019 season.
- Nate Pearson: Soon enough. Other non-roster players in camp include MLB veterans Phillippe Aumont and A.J. Cole, though neither seems likely to have a realistic shot at a rotation job out of the gates.
cant imagine they wolnt start Shun with the money they gave him. id consider trading Anderson though and opening up a spot for one of the young guys.
They gave Shun reliever money. He will be a reliever in MLB
Reliever money by most team standards. Starter money by Jays standards. The only player I see potentially beating up Shun is Thornton. I don’t envision an opening day roster without these two on it but I think Thornton will be a long reliever unless Shun really falters in his first couple of starts.
By Jays standards?
Lol
So we went broke with Ryu by that logic?
Shun got paid what he was worth and that is a back end starter / RP option
Let him get his own. Hes got Syracuse money
They only gave him 2 years 6 million, that’s middle relief money.
The amount of money player is paid doesn’t define their role. If he’s good enough to be a starter he will start and Thorton will be optioned.
I wonder if Wilmer Font sees the writing on the wall.
I’m sure it depends on the style his team leans on.
his track record the past two years has become comically wild
…and one cant imagine it hss emboldened him
I can’t underline this enough
At times he pitches like a new Roman but others he gets a little too arial which leads to a lot of wing dings.
Whyhayzee I see what you did there
He’s the type of player you really can pull for
Unless something changes Reid-Foley is not a MLB calibre starter.
They should be putting him in the Pen and getting him accustomed to 7th or 8th inning duties.
He has a fantastic arm, just needs control issues sorted.
Agreed. We need bullpen help and this can work out. I think going out there with a shorter leash could help his control issues. Simplistic approach batter by batter.
You still gotta throw strikes and SRF can’t do that. The FO has already said he will be starting in Buffalo.
What a nice problem to have for a change. And Pearson coming soon.
Nate Pearson might posses the best fastball in the world right now, just gotta stay healthy and he might become the best pitcher the jays have ever developed, it was a blessing that Edwin didn’t re-sign.
It’ll be hard to be better than a first ballot HOF, don’t get your hopes up
Hopefully they won’t shun Yamaguchi.
These run downs are great for those of us in deep dynasty leagues where grabbing a 5th/6th starter at this time of year can be huge later. Thanks!
Lol
For the “Shun”
It realy comes down to the first two names on the list. If the Jays had confidence in Kay to be ready in 2020 they wouldn’t have acquired three SP plus Yamaguchi. Borucki is hurt and the rest will be summoned to Buffalo or the bullpen.
I foresee a swap between the Jays and a pitching needy team around the end of Spring Training.
It’s amazing the difference one year makes. Last year the pitching depth was pathetic. This year they’re probably going to have too many arms in Buffalo.
They’re in a good position to pick up some assets at the deadline—if not sooner. Though I think they should target more high upside lower minor guys versus the ML ready guys like Drury/Fisher/McKinney/Hernandez they’ve been targeting. Pluck a couple guys out of rookie ball and roll the dice.
at this point in the rebuild they should be focusing more on ML ready talent, not less
A marginal ML player like Drury isn’t worth much. That guy in A Ball can have his stock rise and become a significant trade chip. They’ve been acquiring ML ready “prospects” for the last half decade with little to no success. And guys like Roark/Anderson/Shoemaker are not going to bring back top AAA talent. It’s going to have to be a guy who is years off if they’re shooting for a high ceiling.
The jays got depth that’s enviable
If the Jays aren’t married to the idea of a normal 5 man rotation they have enough arms to run a pitching staff like TB. Certainly for the 4th and 5th slot. Plenty of guys who could be openers with a guy like Anderson or Waguespack following up as the length.
The 5th starter will be Thornton. He developed a pitch late last year (a new grip or something) with help from Buchholz and was pretty good after that. He had a 2.19 ERA in 5 games in Sept/ Oct.
Put Shun in the pen, and that makes it stronger, and allows him to adapt to MLB.
Jays don’t have a whole lot of quality pitching depth. The Jays are not winning any championships with these guys. Yeesh.
Anderson is gone by mid year.
Gucci is reliever in MLB.
SRF doesn’t know where the ball is going.
Borucki is a #2 if healthy which is doubtful.
Roark is meh.
Merryweather is a reliever.
Ryu is a #1.
Thornton is a #4.
Kay is a #4.
Waguespack is a #5.
Pearson is a #1 but stuck in the minors to extend his service time.
Zeuch is a #5 if he can keep his sinker down otherwise he is 4A.
Thought you got on the Yankees bandwagon?
Only a handful of teams have the quality of pitching depth to win a championship.
If a couple of these names show some growth, the makings of a championship staff for 2021 is starting to bloom. Why burst that bubble with negativity now? Bandwagon won’t fly if you don’t believe.
I am still on the win now bandwagon. The Shapiro long term competitive koolaid is nonsense. I can be positive about Ryu and Pearson and Giles and Guchi in the bullpen.
I can’t ride on false bandwagons.
Jesus Christ pal. First off Borucki is a #2. That’s a little insane but anyway if what you said were really true the Jays would be in excellent shape moving forward.
But can you be realistic about Pearson?
Whether he is ready or not, a big part of the game for every team in MLB is asset management.
Not only are they saving on his service time, but they are gaining the use of a spot on the 40 man roster while they wait.
They can win now by waiting.
Some tight battles to make the 26man roster could turn into a hot start.
A lot of young players and injury risks among the pitching staff could turn into a rough start.
If they are near .500 by mid-May, then adding Pearson would be a big boost.
If things start rough, maybe wait til after trade deadline to really maximize those roster spots.
The number 5 spot only needs to get through 7-9 starts while things play out.
Shoemaker was pitching like a 1 or 4 starter before he went down. Against Detroit and Baltimore looked like an ace. Against Boston and Minnesota more like a number 4. He’ll still get to face Baltimore and some Detroit, maybe Seattle at times. If he can get through… I’m rooting for the guy. Could put up some good turns. Number 3 type.
Ryu is certainly the Jays number 1 and I’d love to see him give number 1 type stats. Some early AL adjustment has me thinking he’ll be closer to number 2 type performance, at least to start out.
Roark avg like 170 IP last 5 years and Anderson avg like 140 IP last 5 years are solid guys to be 4th and 5th starters. Some early AL adjustment may have us wishing extra for some hot bats to start out.
Really hope to see some of these youngsters develop into more exciting options to make these two vets expendable.
Maximum 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster makes things interesting for this list of options above.
Ryu, Shoemaker, Roark, Anderson.
Giles, Yamaguchi, Bass, Dolis.
Plus 5 more arms.
Thornton has to be the lead candidate for 5th spot in rotation. Showed some flashes in his rookie season.
Gaviglio was up all year and showed some flashes as well, seems likely to make it.
Font out of options and a solid bulk inning reliever seems like a lead candidate for 26 man.
Also a lead candidate to lose his spot on the 40 man if he doesn’t have it early.
Waguespack may end up as the first injury replacement waiting in Buffalo.
Reid-Foley, Zeuch, Perez, Diaz, Hatch, Murphy don’t seem ready yet. Need to work on control.
Kay too, but he’s closest of the non-Pearson youngsters, seems like 2nd in line for injury replacement waiting in Buffalo.
Borucki start on DL to free up a roster spot seems likely. Hopefully returns ready for majors and able to bump any dud out of the picture.
Merryweather has another option apparently, I thought he was out, he seems to have the control and did well in AFL so he might be able to sneak into the mix.
Has to outpitch Waguespack and Kay for sure. As well as Pannone and Romano I’d guess.
Let him get some innings and be 3rd in line for injury at Buffalo while Pannone and Romano take the last 2 spots on the 26.
Would love to see Aumont pitch well enough to gain consideration, he really looked sharp against Cuba this past fall. Huge longshot.
Ten names listed as not making it means a crunch in the minors. Couple injuries is inevitable but one or two really may have to shift to relief in order to increase their chances.
I never want to see Pannone pitch again.
I think that the Blue Jays can win a playoff series now. to heck with longterm competativeness, it’s time to leap now. All the Jays need is a couple of Dombrowski type moves.
How to make the BlueJays a playoff bound team now: [pending health issues]
Rotation: Ryu, Pearson, Roark/Borucki, Thornton, Kay/Shoemaker
Long Relief: Waguespack/Gavigilio
Relief: Giles, Guchi, Dolis[until he can’t], Bass, SRF, .
Extend Giles contract……
1B: Move Vlad Jr to 1B
Release/Trade Shaw
DH: Tellez/Hernandez
2B: Biggio
3B: Drury until trade deadline
SS: Bichette
Backup: Panik/Espinal
LF: Gurriel Jr
CF: trade the farm and Mckinney for someone like Cain
RF Grichuk
4th Outfielder: Alford/Davis for defense, release/trade Fisher
C: Jansen/Mcquire
At the trade deadline, pending competetive and unforseen circumstances, trade for a experienced/veteran power bat at 3B and fill in the remaining holes with trades.
If the team doesn’t perform after these moves, fire Montoyo and Hudgens.Hire an experienced/veteran manager.
That team doesn’t reach October. Drury is not a starter, is barely worth an MLB spot and is Japan material. If he’s your starting 3B then you are already finished, but we will continue.
Jays aren’t getting Cain and don’t want Cain at 34-35 years old. Need a better arm out of RF than Grichuk. If Grichuk isn’t hitting 7th then your lineup isn’t deep enough for a playoff spot.
Alford is brutal in the OF. Missing that fly ball against Pittsburgh a few days ago was atrocious. He is a 26th man at-best thanks to his speed. He should never touch the field. He ain’t the shaker and he can shake himself to Korea where he’ll be an average OF.
You need a bullpen where guys have stellar seasons at the same time. Easier said than done.
Montoya’s job is only in-trouble if the Jays commit numerous mental mistakes this year.
Yes Drury has to go, but not right away, at the trade deadline.
I wrote a player “like” Cain, not necessarily Cain himself. Ideally a guy like Cain a few years ago, but I would take literally him over anyone else in the Jays Org.
I agree Alford has been brutal. But I like his upside. I still think he’ll be a late bloomer as good or better than the shaker. Unfortunately it is taking much longer than anticipated. Perhaps he has to go overseas to become this player.
And Montoyo is gone eventually. Just a matter of when. He can play his bongos somewhere else. Cashman or Dombrowski doesn’t have Montoyo as a manager.
Question: what happens if[when?] the Jays get off to a brutal two month start. Last year they were 19-34 after two months. What if it is worse this year? Who pays the price?
I can’t stand listening to the KoolAid about 2021 or 2022 when I was screaming for rebuild at the end of 2016.
Good luck finding a Cain. Watched yesterday’s spring game and saw Gurriel’s poor route to that one fly ball by Meadows. The OF play could be scary bad in Toronto this year. As for Alford, he is what is he. Expecting more from him is asking a lot considering the Jays track record during the Ricciardi/AA era developing position players were weak.
Answer to your question: Montoya should not be fired because of absurd expectations made by media and fans. Montoya should only be on the hot seat if the mental mistakes continue. At some point he has to be accountable for that.
Fans and media haven’t learned a thing the last 20 years. They also seem to overlook how good a team needs to be to win. They don’t stack up with the 2015 team. Not even close.
Totally agree that the current Jays don’t stack up to the 2015 team.
I would like to see them bring in some heavy hitters and one more starter via trades.