It’s no secret that it was a quiet winter for the Cubs, a team coming off a 2019 collapse and a disappointing 84 wins. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a deep dive into the Cubs’ unpopular offseason, in which they spent a meager $3.5MM on major league free agents and didn’t make any earth-shattering trades.
There was some expectation the Cubs would deal at least one high-profile player (third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, for instance), but having found no offers to their liking, they seem prepared to bring back a roster somewhat similar to last year’s. That is, minus a handful of notable players – Nick Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler – who performed well for Chicago in 2019 and then exited in free agency.
Despite those losses, there is still a case that the Cubs are more talented than your average club. Bryant, shortstop Javier Baez, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, catcher Willson Contreras and left fielder Kyle Schwarber are still around to drive their position player group. That unit finished top 10 in the majors in runs and fWAR last year (though Castellanos’ second-half tear contributed to both figures).
As with the loss of Castellanos, Hamels’ departure seems likely to hurt. Although injuries hampered Hamels in his last season as a Cub, he still racked up 141 2/3 innings of solid production (3.81 ERA). They’d love that this year from the beleaguered Tyler Chatwood or some other fifth starter (Alec Mills? Jharel Cotton? Adbert Alzolay?), but it’s tough to bet on it happening. The good news is that the club’s top four – Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana – should continue to at least post decent numbers. The same can’t really be said of the team’s bullpen, however. The unit received horrid production from the normally great Craig Kimbrel a year ago and, despite waving goodbye to Cishek and Kintzler (among others), didn’t do anything of significance to augment its relief corps in the winter.
Fortunately for the Cubs, the National League Central looks as if it’ll be almost anyone’s to win in 2020. The Pirates have almost no shot to contend for the crown, granted, though it could be a four-way race with the Cubs, Brewers and the reigning champion Cardinals vying against the much-improved Reds. If we’re to take this year’s PECOTA projections at face value, the Cubs will fall shy just of an NL Central title en route to 84-85 wins, yet they will earn a wild-card spot. But how do you feel about their chances under rookie manager David Ross? Do you expect a return to contention?
(Poll link for app users)
How many Cubs wins do you expect?
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86-89 36% (4,445)
-
80-85 33% (4,145)
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90-95 19% (2,391)
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Fewer than 80 8% (1,055)
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More than 95 3% (429)
Total votes: 12,465
Not making the playoffs again with the front office as the new manager
How good?
NO good!
The virus saved the Cubs from any further embarrassment.
Im not sure which is more sad, u making another Cvbs account (I did the funny thing again!) or…well that’s sad enough.
Not very good. it is a tradition.
Wouldn’t say that. I see the NL Central as pretty even really, there is no powerhouse. not a particularly strong division overall and they, Milwaukee and St looie have a chance. It’s a better division than is the AL Central, but still pretty weak compared to the rest of the league and that gives the Cubbies a chance. The wild card teams won’t come from there we can be pretty certain.
Even, yes. Weak, no. The division has for above average teams. Not like some other divisions that have a couple of cream puffs to beat up on.
Four, not for. DYAC
@johnsilver what does the al central have to do with the nl central? Nothing. Each division across baseball is different in talented rosters or lack there of.
Tradition … if you’re still stuck in last century I guess. This century, they have the 10th best record (4th in NL) and a World Series. Join us in the real world.
Pitching is average at best.
We’ll find out pretty soon, now that Joe Maddon’s gone.
You mean Joe Maddon one of the two most successful managers in Cub history? The only one in anyones lifetime to lead them to the World Series Championship?
The problem last year was roster construction. No leadoff man. No bullpen. Kimbrel a bust last year. Baez out for the last month.
The previous year they won 95 games but I bet you were complaining about Maddon then too.
I was even complaining all through 2016. Even after they became champions. I don’t think they won because of Joe, I think they won in spite of him. Wish him the best in Anaheim, but very happy to see him go.
Here is the kicker the manager he replaced will have a better winning percentage and more WS in the same window as Maddon. I figure Renteria starting this year is in the exact same position as what Maddon was when he took over for the Cubs. Plus I think the White Sox players will mature better too .
Funny that not many cub fans vocalize their frustrations with Theo as they have with maddon.
Yeah, the guy who completely mismanaged his bullpen in games 6 and 7 of the World Series, and who, if his players hadn’t baled him out, would’ve been the biggest goat in Cub history, instead of the g.o.a.t. he thinks he is. And yes, I’m a Cub fan.
According to what? Your decades of experience managing bp? Seriously these claims are laughable at best from arm chair managers who want to believe they are smarter then everyone else. Forget Chspman, that guy blew two other saves in games against the Dodgers and giants, and he has blown a slew of saves when it matters for the yanks. So Chapman mucking up on G7 had nothing to do with Joe, that is just Chapman having two pitches. Fast and semi-fast.
As far as yanking Hendricks, Kyle was starting to get hit hard. Again if people paid attention they would have realized this. Also, and probably the most obvious, ever manager in fing baseball does what Joe did or would have done something similar in his shoes….let’s not pretend he was. Unique or the “in spite of him” people actually know what they’re talking about. If the cubs won in spite of him…..they should have been able to do that the last three years….they didn’t.
Who was the other “successful” one?!
Lou Pinella?!
That World Series team would have won with me as manager. God love Joe, I do. God love Rossy, i do. But that team was destiny. And btw, so is this years!,
If contention is defined by contending for the Division then yes. I suppose that gives them a chance at a wildcard if not division (in a weak division).
Contending for more than that …. too many IFS for them that need answering before you could even think of more for the Cubs.
I can’t for the life of me imagine a wild card team coming from the Central this season…
Click…Bait…Again
seriously, they realize they get more comments and traffic to any cubs related news so they post ‘how was their offseason?’ or ‘how bad are the cubs going to be this year?’ give me a break.
Worthless…. Comment…. Again….
Don’t…read…then
With how badly the Bryant deal was handled and a rookie Mgr. Look for an implosion. 75 wins at the most.
Stop.
They could win 75 blindfolded.
That’s Crazy Larry for ya
Window closed. Chose the wrong coach. Theo breaks curses so he’ll go in the HOF but he doesn’t know how to tear down and expedite a new era of winning.
Choose one or two from the core to be the face of the franchise. Trade the rest of the talent away for low A prospects and aging super arms. Buy cheap aging big bats. Put 100 million in prospect development: nutrition, physical therapy, and mental health. Then rake when all your youngsters realize their max potential.
Jesus that’s dumb.
One of the most incoherent, rambling analyses I’ve ever read. Congrats!
I say 90 wins…….
When Baez, Rizzo, Bryant went down in early September, the Cubs could have got 90 wins if they were not injuried…….I believe Mills or Chatwood can get more wins than Hamels will in 2020……..Strop was just giving up Wins for the Cubs in 2019……….Lester is on the down side……Quintana has to show it is now or never for his baseball career…….Hendricks & Darvish will be steady……the bullpen will be better than what we saw in 2020………play Schwarber everyday……keep Heyward in RF……..who ever is hot between Happ or Almora, play them……of all what we have, Ross has to show he is a MLB Manager and not just DWTS dancer celeb……he cannot be these players best buddy…….he needs to get into player faces who under perform………Theo needs to shake up the roster if we have slow start……I look at the schedule, Cubs shouls have at least 18 wins by the end of April..
I think something big will happen in 2020 for the Cubs. If not, than only Big Names will be on the move to other teams.
Typo fix (90 losses)
Wow!!! The most accurate, reasonable, truthful post I’ve read here.The Cubs were well on the way to a division crown until the injuries hit the least month of the season.Were on pace for around 94 wins I believe.Strop gave away so many wins earlier in the season as well.
I think Rossy will be fine. I think he’s more of an old fashioned type manager who will hold players accountable. Everything I am hearing is the players already recognize that fact..Something Maddon did not do. We won in 16 in spite of Maddon. My 16 year old son could have managed that team to a WS win.
The schedule early on in the season is very easy. Nothing but a big jump to front of division and building a big lead is acceptable. If not… I see Theo trading pieces by the break. I am sure he sees the schedule as starting off easy but ending difficult.
Third place team in the nl central.
place a bet who will win more games this year…Cubs or Sox at the local casino.
Cubs will cover !
Just like 90% of cvbs fans, you lack objectivity. You guys think the cvbs will win regardless of who’s on the roster, and that make you class A meatballs.
Kinda ironic considering everyone is just handing the White Sux a free ticket. What have they proven yet? Not a single thing. They were offseason World champs of the AL… WOW! Lotta offseason world champs of the past failed in the regular season.
The Cubs roster has a ton of World Series rings in the clubhouse, some won on other teams too. We don’t think they can win, we know they can win because they’ve proven it.
Maybe. That is certainly possible.
still 5 games ahead of the sox no matter where we land in the NL cental
Sox are better in every aspect. They’ll win 85+ based on their hitting lineup alone. cvbs window has closed due to front office complacency, a bad bullpen and mediocre lineup. Darvish and Hendricks might be enough to win 80 games if they stay healthy and go deep into games.
Chisox… does your “U” not work?
youre right in that the cubs will win 85+ games with their lineup which roster is mostly the same vs the white sox who got better due to unproven rookies, hard sell.
Or… what’s wrong with U??
It does.
Unproven rookies? Huh?
He takes great pride in being the Mouth Wide from the South Side. Just a troll.
He’s a Sux fan. White Sux fans are prone to make dumb comments. It’s not the White Sux I dislike, it’s the always whinning Sux fans that I dislike. Seems like most Sux fans are happier when the Cubs lose than when the Sux win. Face it Sux fans. You are the red headed step child. Always will be.
Not most Ernies, just this guy Chitown311 which may be him and a few others. I’ve refrained from commenting on most Sox or Cubs articles cause it’s the usual d bags that comment
Thanks, Mr. “objectivity”.
A White Sux fan talking about a front office. Hahahahaha
Cubs article…check, thirsty jealous Sox fan…check. ChiSoxFan I’m really starting to worry about you. Does ur team know you’re a Cubs stalker? Sorry I meant Cvbs, it’s funny bc ur spelling it wrong!
All the Cub fans are still in the Denial stage. Wait till May. There’s a chance then they’ll accept the team isn’t going anywhere.
Says the Detroit fan…how’s that going for ya lol
I think they’re slightly worse than last year while the Reds are significantly better. So I’m thinking 80-85 wins, but there’s still some quality bats in that lineup. They could surprise people, but I don’t see it.
Not enough bats to surprise anyone. Pitching is garbage on top of that. Lousy outfield, lousy 2B, rooking manager. Done.
If a Cub player is moved, where would they go……
Bryant………Dodgers, Padres, Rays, Nationals
Baez……….pick any 29 teams….he is a Gem in many GMs eyes.
Darvish……..Yankees, Angels
Schwarber………Indians, Yankees, A’s. White Sox
Almora…………Marlins
Contreras…….Rays, Rangers, Padres
Heyward………Would be packaged with Bryant in a block buster trade
Quintana………Rangers, Astros, D-Backs, Twins, Braves
Lester……..Angels
I think Bryant goes to Atlanta
When the Braves figure they should have pulled the trigger earlier…it will be too late…….other teams will offer more than the Braves.
The Sox have six Schwarbers already (Jimenez, Abreu, Encarnacion, Mercedes, Vaughn, Collins). Why on earth would they trade for or sign Schwarber?
when the Sox are in 4th place in July, in panic, you will know why !
Schwarber would kill it in a Yankee uniform. Perfect fit.
David Ross will have more wins than Joe Maddon will have in 2020……and the Cubs Haters will not talk about it.
Dumb.
thanks for your incredible insight there Mr. Anti-Cub
Cardinals
Reds
Cubs/Brewers
Pirates
Reds will be below 500 at the end of April…..bet on it……
they be in panic mode.
I have no worry about them.
You are big and bad Johnny. Big and bad.
You mean like now the Nationals panicked in April last year? Because they were 12-16 and they sure panicked. And….what’s….with….all….this…..???
I have to say this….if the White Sox had a great team to talk about…..their fans would not be here to talk about the Cubs.
when is the next Disco record Night ??????
when the Dogs out number the fans in the stands at Sox Park…..your team is in trouble.
Meatball.
A brave comment from a member of a fanbase that doesn’t own any shirts with sleeves.
I see just as many Cubs trolls on White Sox articles as White Sox trolls on Cubs articles. Stop pretending this is a one-sided deal.
It’s more so that ChiSvxFan (I did that funny thing u do!!) comments like a crazy ex girlfriend. It must get boring to be stuck in your moms basement all day while u hear her screaming from me banging her. U r a Svx fan (I did it again…it’s so funny!!!) atleast u can blame the Corona virus this year for no one being at your games.
I think Cubs fans should worry more than about this year. Barring a ton of quality free agent signings, they are looking at turning over an aging roster with expensive (non productive) players. I see several years rebuilding and that isn’t being a hater. Just seems like their run is over and they will need to make a decision on how to retool.
Let’s just say this, I think the Rangers are better than the Cubs. Cubs get 85 wins.
I agree rangers are better
I put 90-95
But I think it’s gonna be about 90.
There good. With Talent. And if Darvish has a healthy season, that will go a long way.
Pirates are out. Cards are about 90 as well. Brews are in Contention. If the Reds make a leap, like they are saying. Maybe 85 for the Cubs. But I don’t think so. Not Yet.
I would love to meet the 75 people that said 95+ wins. Can you imagine what their lives are like? Yikes.
Look no further than twentyforty for your answer.
Delusional cvbs fans.
You did the funny Cvbs thing again!!! It’s super funny bc it’s supposed to be a U, not a V…hilarious!!!!!
From what I remember the Cubs overachieved a little earlier than most expected.. They were penciled in for 17′ 18′ and not 16′.. Theo went all in and it paid off big time since they all grew up so quickly.. they could have Gleyber playing second right now and maybe even Eloy in right without ever signing Heyward.. only reason I bring it up is they went for it for a title under circumstance but one or two things go a different direction we would be having a different conversation. Doesnt matter now but they are still better than they played last year IMO and should have just as good a shot at the division as anyone. Gotta play the games!
I figure they are a 500 ball club. Will be sellers at the trade deadline! It will be all down hill from there.
It’s the first season of their (garbage) Marquee network. They won’t sell any popular players until they get all the major cable networks onboard (Comcast). Even then, that organization cares more about the dough they’re making off cvbs fans than they do staying in contention.
Yet here you are, posting on every.single.Cvbs (see what I did there, it’s funny bc it’s spelled wrong).article. I’m staring to think you’re not a weird crazy incel stalker, but rather a bored 10 year old?
I think the cvbs suck and the sox will win 90 games.
That’s pretty cute. How old are you kid? 11, 12?
I am 31 years old.
Really??? That’s why the Cubs have spent more on upgrades to Wrigley field and the area than the Sux have spent on there entire payroll.?? Cause it’s all about the dough. LOL
Idk but there is only 5 teams who 100%have a better roster
Braves
Dodgers
Yankees
Astros
Mets
Nationals
I would agree with you If they didn’t just win the WS. I think their pitching will suffer from pitching the extra postseason innings.. but if it doesn’t they will be good again
Cubs were smart not to deal away what they have (enough starting pitching, good bullpen, a lineup that will likely rebound, and a new manager—change is good). They’ll be a really good team next summer. The Reds will be much better, though (they got a mean-looking lineup). The Brewers will be the same team they always have, a very talented team with the best player (Yelich) and they will come up short, because that’s how they roll.. The Cardinals will win enough to be close with what they have and may catch fire in the last month, or maybe not, or maybe win the World Series, who knows with the Cardinals (they don’t have a real cleanup hitter or a defined closer). The Pirates are in a bad way, but have interesting young guys, a beautiful ballpark, and some trade bait (rebuilding). I don’t see why the Cubs can’t win it all, really. That’s how I see it: Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates.
Hey ChvSoxFan (see I did it to your name bc it’s funny!!). Quick question…let’s say the Svx (I did it again, lol) actually win the division. Would they blame the Corona virus on no one showing up for your playoff games?
Guaranteed Seat Field.
No by that time the government would have invented another mass hysteria virus.
You gotta love every cubs fan favorite statistic. Not WAR, not OPS, not ERA…it’s how many drunk tourists you can get to your ballpark. Start floatin some better s*** bud.
You want statistics??? Fine. How about which team has the most wins in the last 5 years – the Sux or the Cubs?
It’s really not that hard.
Lmao. Ok dude
Didn’t know history played such an important role in determining what will happen this year. Cubs have a weaker team than last year after losing a few, albeit not huge, pieces. White Sox got significantly better. It’s true they’ve proven nothing yet and that winning the offseason doesn’t always translate to winning in the regular season, but between a team that’s lost players and a team that’s gained solid players and has a bunch of help coming from the farm, I’d trust the latter to improve more. Ask your question again in five years; I’m betting the answer will be different.
There you go trying to reason with a cvbs fan again. Can’t do it. Waste of time.
asking someone to “float some better sht” and someone provided the better sh$t and reply ”Lmao. Ok dude”
Dont worth Sux fans (see I changed the O to a U bc it’s funny!) I’m sure there will be another article soon about the Sux (I did it again!!).
I’m predicting a fourth place finish this season. It’s just the way it is. By July the trades will start flying and hopefully the Cubs can pick up some pieces for a rebuild. I’d keep Rizzo around for the fan base
“Uncle Joe”‘s schtick seems to wear off quickly with veteran players so I’m sure there were issues. However, I think Ross may struggle to manage a roster full of players he played with just recently. It’s harder to be the boss than just being one of the guys.
85 at the most..
Tired of hearing how great Maddon was. Cubs won inspite of all his stupid moves. He is like Phil Jackson with the Bulls. If you give the man the best team in the sport and they win it all,is anybody supposed to say great job even if an 11 year old would have won. Why does he not get bashed for ONLY winning once. Hive me a break. Joe Maddon, let’s see how the Angles do with this mastermind. Lmao
Swap out Joe Maddon’s name for Theo Epstein, and everything you wrote suddenly makes sense.
Phil Jackson didn’t make bone head decisions with the roster like maddon did. Phil Jackson kept his players motivated every year to keep winning titles and not get complacent. Joe maddon should never be compared to Phil Jackson
What “bonehead” moves did Maddon make? Suddenly cvbs fans are baseball experts who know more than a 2x world champion manager with 25 years of experience? Lay off the cvbbie-Koolaid.
This I agree with wholeheartedly. Maddon’s bullpen management during the WS was wasteful, foolish, and almost cost them the title. I don’t think it’s entirely his fault they only won once, though. There are other great teams (and one or two who cheat their way to titles). He should get some of the blame for them falling off this past year, though.
The cvbs bullpen was horrible in 2016, especially in the playoffs. They were all pretty much “compromised”, with Chapman being the lone exception. Maddon wanted to win, so he used the only decent reliever he had to get it done. cvbs fans should respect him for that, but you guys are meatballs, so…
Needed Merrifield or someone similar to lead off. Division’s a crap shoot. Whoever’s hot late probably wins it.
He’s a Sux fan. White Sux fans are prone to make dumb comments. It’s not the White Sux I dislike, it’s the always whinning Sux fans that I dislike. Seems like most Sux fans are happier when the Cubs lose than when the Sux win. Face it Sux fans. You are the red headed step child. Always will be.
Get back to me when your amnesia about the cubs pre 2004 tapers off…
I want to see the pole for what month the Cubs will have their fire sale
I understand the main reason people say the Cubs have no shot is because they dislike a select % of the fan base, which, is incredibly stupid. Disliking a group of players because of the minority of their fan base? Same goofy concept applies to the Yankees and their fans too. Me, I actually dislike teams based on…well the team, the players. In reality though, anyone but the Pirates can win it.
I think they will see Ross more as one of the guys then as a manager that he will have a hard time. I could be completely wrong about this though.
He did bring the boogeyman to camp with him. he told them all that if they didn’t get their reps in or get their infield practice in that John lackey will get them and the one behold right there stood The boogie Man himself.
Who knows. Lacky is in camp and we do need a fifth starter. Just sayin.
John Wick was in Cubs camp?
All this article does is hate my city. Literally, 80 % of baseball fans are completely stupid… ….. good lord
I’d like to meet the 165 people who voted “More than 95”.
Miltoapoas It’s not very satisfying nor safe to meet these belligerent drunk-half-wits!
Chicago’s financials are really overblown to how bad they are-
Yes they have been handicapped these past 2 offseasons (kimbrel sure didnt help) but they are down to 96 mill next year with Contreras Rizzo Bote Baez Bryant in the inf under contract
Heyward Schwarber Almora Happ in the OF
Yu Hendricks and the last year of Kimbrel for arms
They have taken an unorthodox line but this cupboard is far from bare as many seem to paint the picture-
There 2020 outlook isnt bad, 2021 looks a whole lot better; then 2022 they are down to 60 mill ( basically all from Yu Hendricks Heyward)
They could fall to 4th and they could win the division going wire to wire. This will all depend on pitching, health and Ross. Would have hired Girardi for this particular Cubs team. Window isn’t completely closed but they needed a a guy who will kick their behinds. Not sure the ex-teammate Ross is the guy but we will find out. Cubs still have plenty of talent and should not be overlooked.
I think Girardi is overrated, much like Torre. Getting an immensely talented roster and winning with them is nowhere near as difficult as molding a team of rookie contract guys and cheap veterans into a winner. A’s, Rays, and Twins do a great job of this. Even though none of them has won the WS recently, I doubt many other teams could get so much out of their rosters.
Girardi overachieved in Florida in a rebuild and overachieved with some deadfish NYY teams between 2013-2015 with bloated contracts and has-beens. Boone has had better teams to work with since 2018.
Cubs needed a hard nose to help them snap out of their funk. They are still a talented team.
Chicago is a Cubs town……..always will be.
this is a 90 win Cubs team…….
next best team is Cardinals….
feel no threat from Brewers or Reds…..both around a 500 team….
and the Pirates are a JV team…..already on the Draft Clock.
There will be no WC team from the NL Central in 2020.
Put the Koolaid down and apply some logic and reason for once. The Reds have the best pitching in the division, and a potent hitting lineup. They are the team to beat for that reason. The cvbs have been in regression since ‘17, just accept what’s happening. Every former championship team goes through it.
Did your grade school get closed today from the virus ?….if not…..get your nose back into the book kiddo !……you need to get a life !
I agree with chisoxcity. You are obviously smarter then everyone here. It’s so funny to see the pole having the Cubs win more games than last year with disregards to the fact that the Cubs lost pieces from last year’s team who only won 84 games lmao. Meanwhile the Cardinals and Brewers lost pieces as well and figure in that the Reds got four impact players in free agency. So chisoxcity you are dead right people need to wake the hell up and stop peddling this mountain of poop to us.
Yes they’ve lost pieces from last season. They lost the great Addison Russell.
Cubs were a slightly better bullpen away from reaching the playoffs again. They’d have to implode internally to blow their chances in 2020.
Castellanos, Hamels, Strop, Cishek.
That was just last offseason. Make a list of talent the cvbs have lost every year since ‘16, and you could field a formidable starting lineup with it.
Meanwhile, the cvbs have added a bunch of nothing for way more money than should be allowed by the criminal justice system. They are rigged to fail, and you can thank Theo and his handler for it.
You….are….incapable…of….having an objective….thought…..if you don’t think…the…Central is wide…open.
Should be a fun division to watch. I got the brewers winning and the cubs in a wild card spot. I’ll probably be wrong lol. I’m just ready for the season to start.
I have the Cards winning. Even though they lost Ozuna and did little to improve, they always seem to find a way to be better than people think. I have the Reds a close 2nd, Brewers and Cubs both within 8 of the Cards. And I’m just as likely to be wrong. 94 wins could be enough in that division, since there’s only one actually bad team to beat up on.
Seems I’m something of a rarity in being both a White Sox and Cubs fan. I honestly don’t think the Cubs do much better than 85 wins this year. The Reds improved dramatically and the Cubs didn’t really do anything and don’t have much in the farm to draw from. Maybe Cubs fans should expend more of their vitriole against the FO for promising changes and not delivering, then complaining about having no money, which is another obvious lie. All of this “White Sux” (oh so very clever) hating is just stupid, especially considering both teams have won the same number of titles both this millennium and the last 100 years.
The Cubs will finish third or fourth in the division. Theo spent on some baaad contracts. Pitching is old. Farm system is weak. The offense is like the stock market. It’s time to sell off every player outside of Baez.
There’s over 1000 haters in here.