In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen, center fielders, corner outfielders, and lefty and righty relievers who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Now, we’ll cover the starting pitchers (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).
Top of the Class
- Trevor Bauer (30): An front-of-the-rotation performer in 2018, Bauer managed only a 4.48 ERA in his 213 frames last year while allowing home runs at about three times the rate he did in the season prior. If you value Bauer somewhere in between, he’s still a high-quality performer. The fact that he’s steadfastly claiming interest only in one-year agreements should enhance his appeal to some organizations.
- Mike Minor (33): The past health issues haven’t been a concern of late for the southpaw, who last year topped two hundred frames and posted a 3.59 ERA. His fielding-independent pitching numbers weren’t quite as impressive, but at worst Minor figures to be a quality mid-rotation target.
- Jake Odorizzi (31): He somewhat surprisingly took the qualifying offer after a very strong 2019 showing, but that could still work to Odorizzi’s benefit. He won’t be dragged down by draft compensation and could be the top-available arm. Odorizzi put up a 3.51 ERA last year, though he was only asked to work 159 frames over thirty starts.
- Jose Quintana (32): The results weren’t there in 2019, as Quintana limped to a 4.68 ERA. But he did manage a 3.80 FIP, so if you believe in his ability to keep the ball in the yard even while others around the game can’t, then perhaps there’s still a good bit left in the tank. Quintana has a long track record of success, so the market could buy into a rebound if he’s able to show it.
- Robbie Ray (29): The upside here is tremendous with Ray’s propensity for generating whiffs. But he was also more prone to dole out free passes and surrender long balls than the other members of this group. Ray has been pretty durable and has a strong history of strikeouts. Given his age, he probably has the greatest earning upside of any starter in an underwhelming overall market.
- Marcus Stroman (30): While his strikeout numbers don’t jump off the page, Stroman generates a lot of grounders and has consistently turned in palatable home run tallies. He seems like a good bet for a strong, four-year deal, even if he’s unlikely to take down a monster contract.
- Masahiro Tanaka (32): Tanaka’s swinging-strike rate dropped to 10.7% in 2019 after a two-season surge. But he has had success at that level previously and continues to avoid walks and generate strong groundball numbers. It’s tough to imagine Tanaka again producing the kind of sparkling numbers he did early in his tenure with the Yankees, but he could be a major factor on the market.
Upside Aplenty
- James Paxton (32): The big lefty is healing while everyone else waits for baseball to get started. He’s arguably the most talented pitcher on this year’s market and could still command a big payday if he hits the ground running when he returns.
- Garrett Richards (33): It’s much the same story for Richards as for Paxton. He made it back to the majors briefly in 2019 so should be a full go for the 2020 season. It has been a long time since he has managed a complete season, but there’s a tremendous established ceiling.
- Kevin Gausman (30): Could there still be some breakout potential here? Gausman didn’t have a successful 2019 by most measures, but he did jump up to a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 10.0 K/9 — both career-high levels. He posted an ugly 5.72 ERA, but ERA estimators were rather more optimistic as to the value of his contributions (3.98 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA).
- Michael Wacha (29): We’ve already seen Wacha turn in quality MLB campaigns from a rotation and he’s still fairly young, so he could be an interesting name to watch if he’s able to author a bounceback campaign.
- Taijuan Walker (28): It’s not promising that the Diamondbacks elected to cut bait after watching Walker return from Tommy John surgery. But he has had plenty of time to rest and is reputedly motivated in his return to the Mariners.
- Alex Wood (30): He has throw 839 innings of 3.40 ERA ball in the majors with metrics to match (3.49 FIP/3.53 xFIP/3.70 SIERA), so there’s no denying Wood’s track record.
Established Veterans
- Brett Anderson (33): When he takes the mound in 2020, it’ll be a dozen straight seasons of some MLB action. Despite the many injuries and ups and downs, Anderson is still a useful, groundball-oriented starter.
- Chase Anderson (33): If he’s good enough to be interesting, the Blue Jays will pick up their $9.5MM club option ($500K buyout).
- Chris Archer (32): Likewise, Archer will probably either be a reclamation project or an easy choice to retain on a $11MM club option ($250K buyout).
- Jake Arrieta (35): We’re now three full seasons into obvious decline for Arrieta, but he’s still a factor regardless and could yet have a late-career renaissance of sorts.
- Homer Bailey (35): His deal with the Reds didn’t work out at all, but Bailey settled in last year as a sturdy presence.
- Tyler Chatwood (31): He has found more success of late in the bullpen than as a starter, with his velo trending up in shorter stints, but who knows what the future holds?
- Anthony DeSclafani (31): He quietly turned in a strong rebound campaign in 2019, spinning 166 2/3 innings of 3.89 ERA pitching with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.
- Mike Fiers (36): Though ERA estimators think it’s a mirage, Fiers carries a 3.73 ERA in 356 2/3 frames over the past two seasons.
- Gio Gonzalez (35): Gio had a bit of a quiet resurgence last year. If he can carry that forward, the White Sox can keep him for $7MM (or pay a $500K buyout).
- Cole Hamels (37): Hamels is taking things one year at a time. We’ll see how he bounces back from an injury that was going to take away a big chunk of the 2020 season before it was paused.
- J.A. Happ (38): We may end up debating Hamels and Happ until one or both finally decide to hang ’em up.
- Rich Hill (41): Another venerable southpaw, Hill is dead set on returning to glory with the Twins and remains a highly talented hurler when he’s able to take the bump.
- Merrill Kelly (32): If he’s not good enough for the D-Backs to pick up with a $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout), we likely won’t be featuring him much in free agency.
- Corey Kluber (35): The Rangers are hoping he’s a slam dunk on a $17.5MM club option; if not, we’ll be talking about a bounceback candidate.
- Mike Leake (33): He’ll take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. When last he hit the open market, Leake’s appeal was in his youth. Now, he has a lot to show in his platform season.
- Jon Lester (37): Could this be the final run or will Lester keep going?
- Charlie Morton (37): As with Kluber … if he’s what his team expects, his option (in this case, a floating-value vesting/club option) will be exercised.
- Jimmy Nelson (32): The Dodgers hold a cheap club option, but if he throws enough innings it’ll convert to a mutual option that could allow Nelson to revisit the market.
- Ivan Nova (34): Steady innings, we all need ’em.
- Martin Perez (30): The Red Sox went after the southpaw and made sure they’d keep the upside ($6.25MM club option) if he works out.
- Rick Porcello (32): If he can turn things back around with the Mets, Porcello could be a candidate for a multi-year deal.
- Tyson Ross (34): We’re well past wondering whether Ross can regain his earlier-career form, but perhaps he could still settle in as a useful veteran swingman.
- Jeff Samardzija (36): Samardzija rather quietly turned in 181 1/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball last year for the Giants. The peripherals didn’t exactly suggest he’s in the middle of a Verlander-like late-career run, but Shark could again be a factor.
- Anibal Sanchez (37): Speaking of resurgent hurler, Sanchez will either get a $2MM buyout or pitch again in D.C. on a $12MM club option.
- Drew Smyly (32): Still capable of getting strikeouts and somehow rather youthful, Smyly may yet have another run in his left arm.
- Jordan Zimmermann (35): Unfortunately, there’s really no sugar-coating Zimmermann’s miserable tenure in Detroit.
Uninspiring
That’s what everyone says about you.
Imagine writing this entire article, submitting it for editorial review, and it still being published with Jake “trailing 4 seasons with xFIP and SIERA all way over 4” Odorizzi in the tier above James Paxton.
They don’t edit this stuff. Look at the grammar issues in each article.
Ya, that sucks. This free fan site should give us better value for the $0.00 we pay monthly.
On second thought, how about we just complain less about spelling and grammar and be happy we have this free resource? You want proper spelling and grammar then buy a subscription to the Athletic.
$0.00: also the amount of money you make being a white knight for MLBTR writers.
These writers are being paid. They need to write like professionals.
And let me explain something to you: saying Gio Gonzalez is on the Brewers is neither a spelling or grammatical error. But based on your ignorant comments on this thread, I’m sure that kind of intellect is way above you.
You may not remember but you called me a white knight for this very same reason before. You really need a new insult because that one is just not so bad no matter HOW sarcastic you are when you say it.
Yes, they’re paid but not by you so what makes you think you have any good reason to demand anything, you stuffy, arrogant, blue blooded, self indulgent toddler.
Let you explain something to me, eh? You posted that comment to the wrong response because we aren’t talking about Gio Gonzalez here. So what were you saying about my intellect? At least I can actually follow a conversation.
I’m sure if you leave and never post again, you won’t be missed.
Who WOULD be missed? I mean you come here and post that, 3 days after the this conversation was last posted on, and you think anyone knows YOU? But hey, glad you posted your comment that isn’t even worth the digital ink it was made from.
Gio is with the white sox not the brewers
Lots of veteran pitching this coming offseason. I hope the season can start for many reasons. One of them is that the Dbacks can get something for Ray. I don’t see him getting a qualifying offer.
Umm… do you even follow baseball? If not, then coincidentally the article right before this talks all about QOs. Barring an implosion this year or a trade, Ray is 100% getting a QO.
with 0.8 war? if he is getting a qo he should take it in a second.
Ray is certainly getting a QO.
Trevor Bauer seems like the kinda guy to go play for some non contending team just for fun
Most money*
Certainly not, he has explained on his youtube channel that he doesn’t want to play 6 months and have nothing to show for it besides his stat line. He wants to be in the playoffs. And I think the Reds will this season.
Sorry but you lost me when the first description started with “an front-of-the-rotation”.
You don’t need to be sorry. Nobody cares that a silly grammar error has chased you off.
Plenty of people care. Piojohn is in here doing god’s work while the white knights like you grovel for attention.
LOL! God’s work?!?! Do you ever say out loud what you write? That is so very much over the top! I think you could teach us White Knights something about pinning for attention with THAT grandiose description.
Poster claiming to speak for unidentified “people” in unsolicited defense of fellow poster while baselessly ascribing disingenuous motives to dismiss contrary opinions over multiple threads: “YOU’RE WHITE KNIGHTS!”
god’s work?
geez, no wonder it’s such an impotent ahole (just like you. oh wait, you actually exist, sadly).
Padres should look to sign Bauer for 2021.
Only interested in taking 1 year deals so he’d slot into the TOR.
Gio isn’t on the Brewers. Please, for the love of god, edit. “An front-of-rotation”… come on.
Please, for the love of god, shut up. As was pointed out above, be grateful these guys put up this FREE source of information and quit acting like a spoiled brat whose just out to ruin everyone else’s fun. These guys put a lot of time and effort into this site and you get to enjoy it for free. Quit trying to make yourself look smart by pointing out a grammatical error on something that is provided for free.
As was pointed out above: these writers are being paid. They need to write like professionals.
What’s more pathetic than criticizing grammatical errors? Being a white knight on the internet. I’m sure one day a woman will notice you, guy. Hit the gym.
It’s like Lambda Lambda Lambda and the Alpha Betas were really the same thing the whole time.
As I already mentioned, they are paid but you pay nothing into it so I don’t see what makes you think you can demand anything.
Robbie Ray if I had my pick. Especially for the Phils who need a lefty that can get punch outs.
Of the later variety, I think Quintana can be a useful innings eater and I’d take Hamels or Lester on 1 year deals. Of the RHP you may get value out of I’d say Shark and Archer.
The grammar SWAT team is swarming this one, good god get a life, ya bunch of coupon clippers
All the now free-floating pedantic energy that would have been crammed into the season has begun manifesting as a Volunteer Copy Editor brigade.
Well stated. Good vernacular too.
Get an education, ya ignorant belly scratcher.
An education allows a reader to notice errors. An education doesn’t require a reader to be bothered by them.
Back to your cave, richt. Don’t you have some fleas to pick?
Do you think 4/$60for Paxton and
3/$50 for Tanaka gets it done?
AAV’s on both way too low. Tanaka could also probably squeeze a 4th year out of someone.
On AAV, Paxton, no, Tanaka, probably close. I think both sign for 4 years with vesting options for a 5th.
That’s a pretty substantial pay cut for Tanaka, 6-7 M per.
Maybe, but he’s older now, has never pitched 200 innings, and both his traditional and advanced stats have fallen off of late. He’s just not as good as when he first came up.
“Maybe, but he’s older now”
Take a gander at the list. It’s gonna be an old market.
“has never pitched 200 innings”
Again, joining a significant portion of the list. Paxton is still looking to best the 160.1 IP he managed once. Tanaka just pitched the 2nd most innings of his career, and has averaged juuuust under 180 IP the last 4 seasons, Actually one of the more durable pitchers in the class.
On a 3 year deal, I see him getting 19-20 AAV
4 year (or 3 w/ vesting option) would look real real close to Keuchel’s Sox deal.
4 year w/ 5th vesting option would be more in the realm of the 16-18 AAV you’re talking about. I don’t see Tanaka signing for that length, and certainly don’t see a team throwing that many years at Paxton without him being given an impressive bill of health. Not “healthy for Paxton” healthy: actual healthy.
Strowman, Richards and Bauer should be the Angels top three starters targeted
Richards? Garret Richards. The Angels should target Garett Richards? On what planet and why ever should they do that?
The Angels have weathered a lot of sub-par performances from their starting pitching, I guess signing Bauer would give them something they haven’t had yet: a sub-par pitcher who will probably be a jerk about it.
With the league wide shortage of starting pitching, I see most of the guys from the first two categories getting seriously overpaid. Out of those I would target Minor and Richards. I think both may be undervalued. Richards has been dealing with a partially torn UCL for several years now. His stuff has come back strong after TJ surgery. If he can be had for around $15 million per year for 1-3 years, I think he could provide great value. I can see Minor looking at offers in the same range, considering he is older and is a soft-tossing lefty. I think teams will be looking to pay big for Paxton over Minor, even though Minor provides very similar results.
I heard people comparing Minor’s next contract to the likes of Ryu’s last season, at around 20 mil a year (Do I agree? no). I see him getting around 15 annually though, since he is already making 10 per year right now. I expect a front-loaded 3 year deal worth 45 mil.
“Richards has been dealing with a partially torn UCL for several years now.”
A fact the Angels would be intimately aware of, on account of him being an Angel for those years.
“His stuff has come back strong after TJ surgery.”
He finished ’18 strong, then most recently managed only 3 September starts totaling 8 IP and an 8.31 ERA.
He’s a dice roll, health and stuff-wise. The Angels just seem like the last team that would want to make that gamble…again.
I have three things to say about the players mentioned in the article:
1. Trevor Bauer would be a great addition to any MLB staff. Bauer has a great mind, has a lot of ideas, and would seriously help market your team. If you’ve watched any of his videos of youtube, you would know he’s a contender and he just knows and loves the game a lot.
2. Mike Minor is a baller. I could end it there but I’m gonna go further. Minor is the older version of Kyle Hendricks. Lower velocity, he hits his spots, and he is a true pitcher. I expect him to age very well, and I hope the Rangers extend him.
3. Third and final comment. Stroman, Paxton, Bauer, Ray, and Minor are gonna get paid. For being the only GOOD starters on the market, I think they will go a pretty good ways over market value. If there was a Cole or somebody like that on the market I think they’d get a normal contract, but since that isn’t the case… mo money.
Stroman would be another great pickup for texas.
Disagree on your third point. In a normal year, yes, but after a year where owners are likely to lose money overall, I don’t know how many of them will be willing to dole out $100+M deals. Of course, I didn’t see Wheeler getting near $120M, either, so who knows?
Ok, I have to agree, I completely forgot about the smaller contracts due to corona. So I guess negating that money about will still get those starters a market average salary despite the virus. Good thoughts hyraxwithaflamethrower
Gio Gonzalez is currently on the White Sox, not the Brewers.
Anibal Sanchez is a pitching enigma. Thought he was done when he left Detroit. Certainly didn’t think he’d be worth what he’s made since. Good for him.
Don’t be surprised to see Don Nottebart AND Turk Farrell go to the Houston Colt 45’s to pair with Dave Giusti.
What about Adam Wainwright? It can’t just be because he’ll either return to the Cardinals or retire, since you included guys in similar situations on the other lists.
I like this. “It can’t be the obvious reason, the answer I and everyone else already knows is the real one, because of an arbitrary list formatting rule I’ve noticed/invented…so there must be some “other” reason…”
Adam Wainwright (39): He’ll re-sign with the Cardinals or retire.