In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen and center fielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Next up: corner outfielders (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).
Top of the Class
- Mookie Betts (28): Betts is the standout among not only at his position but on the entire free-agent market. He’s been worth at least six wins above replacement (bWAR) in each of the past five years while averaging 149 games played and 683 plate appearances. The revenue loss in 2020 could impact the extent of the bidding war that emerges for Betts, who might’ve otherwise been in line to command the largest free-agent contract in history. He’ll receive a qualifying offer.
Potential Regulars (based on 2019 playing time)
- George Springer (31): We listed Springer as the top of the class in center field, but a club with a strong center fielder could certainly sign Springer and plug him into right field. Since his MLB debut in 2014, Springer has been at least 26 percent better than the league-average hitter in all but the 2018 season, by measure of wRC+. That year, he was a “mere” 18 percent better. Despite being limited to 122 games last year, he connected on 39 Springer Dingers. A qualifying offer is a given.
- Nick Castellanos (29): Castellanos landed a four-year, $64MM deal that allows him to opt out after each season. That may not happen on the heels of a shortened or canceled season, but if we see some games and an approximation of the outrageous .321/.356/.646 pace he showed in two months with the Cubs, Castellanos could look for a longer deal — especially given his relative youth. He’d surely receive a qualifying offer if things got to that point.
- Marcell Ozuna (30): Ozuna had multi-year offers in free agency but bet on himself with a big one-year pact in Atlanta. He has one elite offensive season in a track record that is otherwise filled with solid, above-average campaigns. He can’t receive another qualifying offer
- Michael Brantley (34): Brantley has been among the league’s toughest strikeouts for the better part of a decade, and only two qualified hitters posted lower strikeout rates last year. He also hit .311/.372/.503 — his fifth straight season of at least a .299 average and .357 OBP (excluding 2016, when he was limited to 11 games by a shoulder operation). When he’s healthy, “Dr. Smooth” is a flat-out hitting machine.
- Joc Pederson (29): Pederson a career .188/.263/.310 slash against lefties five-plus years into what has been a somewhat strange tenure with the Dodgers. But Pederson is young, plays good defense and obliterates right-handed pitching — and he’s still only had 375 plate appearances against southpaws due to L.A.’s heavy use of platoons. He probably won’t ever be a great hitter against lefties, but he might be better than he’s been given the chance to show. Even if not, Pederson can still rake as the large half of a platoon.
- Alex Gordon (37): It’ll surely be “Royals or retire” again for the Kansas City icon.
- Josh Reddick (34): Reddick still plays a solid right field, and he’s hit lefties better over the past three seasons. His bat has been a bit below average over the past two years on the whole, but he could be an affordable short-term option.
- Ryan Braun (36): Braun’s $15MM mutual option will likely be bought out ($4MM), but the slugger still showed that he can hit in 2019: .282/.343/.505. Braun has averaged only 460 PAs per year dating back to 2017 and has been tried out a bit at first base.
- Robbie Grossman (31): The A’s gave Grossman a career-high 482 PAs last year, but his production dipped. After three above-average seasons, he hit .240/.334/.348. The switch-hitter is a walk machine (career 12.7%) who has greatly improved his defense in recent seasons.
Versatile Infielder/Outfielders
- Marwin Gonzalez (32): The ultra-versatile Gonzalez can play all four infield spots and both outfield corners. He signed later in Spring Training last year but after shaking off some rust through the first two weeks of the regular season, he slashed .274/.331/.435 through his final 103 games (426 PAs)
- Brad Miller (31): Miller is something of a “jack of all trades, master of none,” but his 2019 campaign was a productive — albeit in a tiny sample of 170 plate appearances. He’s struggled to produce at a consistent level, but Miller keeps landing big league gigs as a bench piece.
- Leury Garcia (30): Garcia saw a career-high 618 PAs last year and hit .279/.310/.378. He doesn’t walk much, but Garcia has hit .270 or better in three straight seasons while adding some value on the bases and playing six positions (all three outfield spots, second base, third base, shortstop).
Part-Time Lefty Bats
- Jay Bruce (34): Bruce hit lefties better than righties in a small sample last year, but platoon issues have been a theme for much of his career. The power is still huge (26 homers, .306 ISO, 333 PAs in 2019), but Bruce’s days as a regular might be behind him.
- Matt Joyce (36): Platoon issues notwithstanding, Joyce is a strong source of OBP thanks to an always-strong walk rate that has ticked up to 15 percent over the past four years.
- Nick Markakis (37): An increasingly crowded outfield should limit Markakis’ time if play is able to resume in 2020. He keeps on hitting righties and is lauded as a clubhouse leader, but Markakis is a .265/.319/.363 hitter against lefties over the past five seasons.
Part-Time Righty Bats
- Yoenis Cespedes (35): Cespedes hasn’t topped 81 games since 2016 and didn’t play at all in 2019. Everyone know how good he can be when he’s healthy, but who knows whether we’ll ever see that version of “La Potencia” again?
- Steven Souza Jr. (32): Souza’s entire 2019 season was wiped out by a catastrophic spring knee injury. He has a recent 30-homer season on his resume, but the stoppage of play in 2020 isn’t doing him any favors in terms of reestablishing himself.
- Hunter Pence (38): Pence posted a monster half season with the Rangers last year and returned to the Giants on a one-year deal, so he’ll see some outfield work if play picks back up. By the time 2021 rolls around, DH at-bats like the ones he saw in Texas might be more crucial.
Club Options to Watch
- Brett Gardner ($10MM option w/ $2.5MM buyout) and Adam Eaton ($10.5MM option w/ $1.5MM buyout) are both plenty productive veterans. If either of these options is bought out, it seems likely to be due to a dip in production that calls into question their status as a regular.
Obligatory Mention
- Giancarlo Stanton will be able to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM on his contract, but that seemed like a far-fetched concept even before a February calf injury left him questionable for the previously scheduled opener. The slugger isn’t getting that kind of coin in free agency, but perhaps the extended downtime will help him to heal up and avoid the IL in the future.
Steven Souza is only a year older than George Springer???
So many great options in the outfield this offseason. I hate being a homer, but Betts and Springer look like real options for the Rangers now that we have a really freed up budget. Since we didn’t get Rendon, we now have the money to go get a superstar player. Plus Choo’s contract is over which frees up 21 million for 21′. I seriously think that, that (plus the other teams lesser money due to the virus) will put us firmly in the running for huge free agents in 21′.
Could see the Rangers as a potential landing spot. Not out of the question.
Daniels will most likely get ignored once again when he lowballs both players!!
If they didn’t break the bank for Rendon I see no way in heck we land Betts.
Springer would prolly be a good fit but hard for me to choke down seeing him in a Ranger uniform.
I can’t picture betts in a rangers uniform, but it could be that Daniels lowballed Rendon with the idea that he was going to go all in on betts regardless of whether or not Rendon took a discount. After all, Rendon could have replaced choo money wise on the books next year and betts with some other cash freed up. Personally, I think the rangers would be wise to get a true top of the rotation pitcher. Minor is a solid mid rotation arm. And Kluber could be great, but I wouldn’t bet on him being an ace. Could upgrade at first, third and second to9
I don’t think the rotation is a big need, now that we got Kluber. Kluber, Minor, and Lynn, despite not having a Verlander or Degrom type at the top of it, is still a dang good 1,2,3 (a top ten in baseball). Odor looked good in spring training, because he finally stopped his wild leg kick, and wouldn’t you know it, he got great results. (hopefully it translates to the regular season). 3rd base and first base though are issues. Guzman has potential to be a great power hitter (plus his amazing first base defense, the best defense I’ve ever seen at the position), but he gets in his own head too much. He needs to take a good look at his mental side, and really just calm himself down. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or Toddfather) is at 3rd. IKF is who I hope to see there, because in the spring he broke out BIG TIME. He is finally getting a good launch angle, resulting in hitting the most homers he’s ever hit in a season LAST SPRING (in a shortened spring training btw). Fun fact: IKF worked with Michael Young over the off-season, and now in spring he is looking like the answer… so yeah, thanks MY. Despite all of that, I still think we need a good 3rd basemen. Just a 2 WAR guy would be fine, just somebody who doesn’t hurt our team by being on the field. Nevertheless, I do think we have a serious chance of signing Betts, and I hope we do (unless ownership wants to be cheap, but what can you do).
Guzman has good defense? Yes, he’s above average.
“Best I’ve ever seen”?
Obviously didn’t watch any games against the A’s and Matt Olson, the 2 time and defending Gold Glover with less than 3 years service time.
Springer is by far the best. He could bring his skills to the field and dugout for the entire team
Springer can’t hold Mookie’s jock strap
Let’s see how good he is when he can’t steal signs…
Let’s see how many pizza rolls I can shove in my mouth
Best player for the money might be pederson.
I wonder, depending on how long it takes for the 2020 season to start, if player might have to offer a discount in free agency? I would expect if the season is cancelled that players would not be able to match their projected estimates had there been a season (outside of injury)?
Due to it being FREE AGENCY, all players will go for what the market value is. It’s only a discount in someone’s imagination, if the expected price was overestimated to begin with. Now if Mookie decides to take less from LA to stay and declines BOS higher offer, that would be considered a doscount.
Boston cannot spend this off-season. Because this year doesn’t count to reset the cap, Boston will need to be under it and will not be able to re-sign Betts.
most guys will stay put. a year older and teams will be looking to save money. next year their wont be a lot of money. mid and small market teams will have no cash.
What will betts cost now….
the same. still just as valuable and still just as likely there is a bidding war. the favorites have plenty stored away in their war chests.
Springer to the Jays, 6 years $204 million.
Realistic?
Depends on how the Jays handle the current OF and 1B/DH situation, plus the potential pitching needs. As of today, no. Come September it certainly could be realistic.
I am sure Springer will be LOOKING for a 10 year- $300 million plus deal. I doubt he will get one. But nobody can know right now where the market will be this offseason. Maybe, if owners really are spending less after Covid-19, he would take that deal. It does actually sound like a very good deal for him. But he will only take that if it is the highest offer.
Grossman “has greatly improved his defense in recent seasons.” Like he was a 2019 Gold Glove finalist while not playing full time? Still a 4th OF at best, but great role player.
Remember when Yankee fans were saying they stole Stanton from the Marlins. Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Jacoby Ellsbury 2.0.
No one has a clue how the coming depression will affect baseball revenues. The teams can count on $$ from TV and that’s it. Speculating on free agent contracts is just that … speculation.