A team in a total rebuild is open to giving any player a chance, particularly when that team is drastically short on starting pitching. With the Orioles in such a state in April 2019, it paved the way for John Means to enter the Orioles’ rotation, on the heels of three relief outings earlier that season and one (disastrous) 3 1/3-inning appearance in his Major League debut on September 26, 2018. That outing saw Means surrender five earned runs, giving him an ugly 13.50 ERA heading into the 2019 campaign.
Means didn’t exactly force his way into the rotation during Spring Training, with only a 5.40 ERA over 13 1/3 frames of 2019 Grapefruit League action. Still, the southpaw did manage 15 strikeouts against just four walks, and given the lack of other pitching options available in Baltimore, the O’s figured it was worth giving Means a shot.
The result was one of the only bright spots of a 108-loss season for the Orioles. Over 27 outings and 147 1/3 innings as a starting pitcher, Means posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.09 K/BB rate, and 6.6 K/9. The majority of that production came in the first half of the season, as Means carried a 2.50 ERA through his first 82 2/3 innings and ended up as Baltimore’s All-Star representative.
Means struggled to a 8.34 ERA in his first five post-break starts, though he did manage to get on track with a 3.26 ERA over his final 49 2/3 frames of his rookie season. As a nod to his breakout performance, Means finished second in AL Rookie Of The Year voting, albeit a distant runner-up behind unanimous winner Yordan Alvarez.
Whenever (or if) the 2020 season gets underway, Means will stand as the de facto ace of the Orioles’ staff — an unlikely development given where he was slightly more than a year ago. An 11th-round pick in the 2014 draft, Means moved through the farm system with unspectacular but solid numbers over his 622 2/3 minor league innings, posting a 3.83 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 3.50 K/BB rate. There isn’t much variance in Means’ year-to-year cumulative stats in the minors, or even in his MLB numbers in 2019.
That type of consistency gives the O’s some hope that Means can at least somewhat replicate his 2019 performance going forward, despite some of the red flags raised by advanced metrics. Means’ ERA predictors weren’t impressive, with a FIP (4.41), xFIP (5.48), and SIERA (5.02) that were all markedly higher than his actual 3.60 ERA. The lack of a high strikeout total hurts Means in this respect, and he also isn’t a hard thrower (average fastball velocity of 91.8 mph) or a ground-ball machine.
What he does offer is the ability to limit the damage when opposing batters do hit his offerings. As per Statcast, Means finished in the 90th percentile of all pitchers in fewest hard-hit balls allowed, while also sitting comfortably above average (72nd percentile) in exit velocity. Means also had only a 9.9% homer/fly ball rate last season, the fourth-lowest mark of any pitcher in baseball with at least 150 IP and a particularly useful skill for a hurler in the tough AL East.
Means’ heater isn’t particularly fast, though he does generate some good spin, as indicated by his spot in the 75th percentile of fastball spin rate. His top pitch, however, is a changeup that Fangraphs ranked as one of the best in the league last season. Only six pitchers with 150+ innings thrown had a better pitch value score on a changeup than Means’ +12.3 number.
Means just turned 27 yesterday and is under team control through the 2024 season (and not arbitration-eligible until the 2021-22 offseason), giving the O’s plenty of flexibility with his future. Given the long rebuild ahead for the Orioles, it may be a reach to count on Means to still be a productive member of the rotation by the time Baltimore is next ready to contend, so the O’s could eventually consider him as a trade chip.
There wasn’t much buzz about Means on the rumor mill this past winter, as while Baltimore is still at the point of its rebuild that any trade option must be considered, the club might prefer to see what they have with the left-hander in his sophomore year. A case could be made that the O’s should have sold high on Means given his lack of a track record, and yet even with some regression baked into his future numbers, the potential of Means being a solid innings-eater going forward carries a lot of value. For a team with so little pitching depth on hand, an unheralded prospect blossoming into at least a decent MLB-level arm counts as a big success.
He’s an Oriole, so no.
Means is an okay pitcher, but he’ll probably never be great
At least until he gets traded at which point he would turn into an immediate cy young candidate…
Or just a straight Cy Young winner…Jake Arrieta
Just ask Jake Arrieta ha
no they didn’t
John Lannan 2.0. Will get you through some bad years but wont be a guy helping when you start winning again
I kind of get a Brad Bergesen vibe. Not confident he’ll succeed long term. I hope I’m wrong though
I think he can be a decent 4 or 5 guy for most teams… that’s like an ace for the Oriojokes.
nice…you clown….
How about a little respect.
It was just a (not very good) joke. Lighten up friend. :)
I agree with the first part, maybe even a little better than that ceiling, but that nickname for the Orioles was somehow worse than their team
Yes, negative Joke WAR on that one for sure.
Rotation building block? I don’t think so. Means is probably a Julio Teheran in the long run. Gives you 170-180 innings a season, 30-33 starts, 3.50-3.60 ERA, but his perferials are always going to make him a #5 starter on a good team.
Julio Teheran is underrated tp be honest. could be a #3 on a lot of teams in the league, even several good ones.
dylan bundy will have also an excellent season having a very good defense behind him, too.
I don’t know what kind of gigantic boost the defense will be for Bundy. He’s largely a fly ball pitcher—I think getting Mickey Callaway as his first quality pitching coach will help a ton. I think a fly ball pitcher getting out of Oriole Park will help even more than any defensive boost the Angels provide.
very true. and angels outfield defense is no pushover, either.
His FIP, xFIP and SIERA say very much otherwise.
If a pitcher continually posts a 3.5-3.6 ERA and his FIP doesn’t match—who the hell cares? FIP is an ERA estimator that typically does not hold for guys who induce a lot of soft contact.
Advanced metrics are good overall. But they’re never useful in isolation. And there’s always going to be some outliers where that number is flat out useless. At the end of the day—the ERA is what matters. The FIP/xFIP/SIERA etc. give you a better glimpse into what the pitcher really deserved in most, but not all cases.
If you are relying on a pitcher with a FIP/xFIP/SIERA in the 4’s or higher, you’re not setting yourself up for success. You can keep your ERA in the mid-3’s, but have a high FIP because you gave a lot of home runs or walks. Jeff Samardzjia had a 4.59 FIP but 3.59 ERA.
Good pitchers have good FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers. Not just good a good ERA and nothing else. That’s just an empty ERA.
Preventing runs is the name of the game. If the guy continually posts a 3.5-3.7 ERA then that pitcher is a good pitcher. FIP isn’t a real result. And it doesn’t hold for everyone. Those are just mathematical formula’s. That’s all FIP is. An ERA estimator. It’s not uncommon for guys who give up a lot of soft contact to outperform their peripherals.
Any advanced metric is worthless in isolation. You say a guy can’t have a 4.5 FIP and a 3.5 ERA and that blanket statement is true in most cases. But it won’t be for all players. A guy like Means is in the top 10th percentile for soft contact.
FIP= 13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2)
That’s what FIP is. That is it. A guy like Jeff Samardzija gave up a lot of hard contact and was likely lucky to have posted his ERA. FIP demonstrates that—in part because the contact he gave up was hard contact. Unlike Shark, John Means gave up a ton of soft contact. FIP doesn’t differentiate between the quality of contact put into play.
Does that make sense to you, that a formula tells you that Jeff Samardzija and John Means would both regress equally? No, of course not. A guy who gives up a lot of hard hit baseballs is more likely to give up more hits. And therefore have a worse ERA.
Yes, certain guys consistently pitch better than their FIP, Keuchel, Hendricks, etc. Guys who get a lot of weak contact with low k rates. And some guys consistently pitch over their FIPs, Archer Pineda, etc. Guys who give up hard contact with high K rates. When this happens you have to take these patterns into account.
However, Means does not have a track record of pitching under his FIP. Throughout all of his minor league seasons he pitched right around it. He definitely doesn’t have a track record of putting up 3.5 ERAs. In fact, after the All-star break. None of his peripherals changed and he pitched to a 4.48 ERA witch was right in line with his FIP. He seems like a low to mid 4 ERA guy long term.
He developed a new change up last year. His minor league numbers mean very little to me as that was his best pitch. We’ll see what he is moving forward
Look, Means had a 5.48 xFIP. Since 2010, of the 36 total seasons where a pitcher has had an xFIP above 5, only 5 pitchers have posted an ERA lower than 3.70, including Means. Very few of those pitchers continued to have success after like that after posting a 5+ xFIP season. It might just be an estimator, but it’s a pretty good one.
XFIP is completely worthless for a guy who gives up a bunch of soft contact. XFIP is FIP adjusted for the league average HR/FB rate. If you give up a bunch of soft contact—how are those softly hit fly balls going to be homeruns? Definitely doesn’t make sense.
If you understand the calculation behind these statistics you can determine whether or not they’ll make any sense.
Means may regress. That’s definitely possible. A guy who allows a lot of balls put into play is susceptible to ERA fluctuations. But there’s a clear path for a guy like Means to out pitch his FIP/xFIP on a consistent basis.
jbigz12, please for the love of…just pipe down…
He’s 2013 Travis Wood.
unrelated to the orioles specifically but relating to all 30 teams, angel hernandez sued mlb for not getting world series opportunities any more. the judge only needs to hear what fans have to say about ‘allegedly’ the worst umpire!
Old news. Who cares.
2020 is the best season the Orioles have had in a long time.
lol, legue should force certain owner to sell the team. mets, orioles and to some degree pirates.
I guess u are 12 and just started watching baseball if you don’t know about the Orioles son. Stick to video games
A long time? They made the playoffs in 2016.
For most fans, 3 years is longer than their memory can handle.
He is the offspring of a threesome between Doug Johns, Rick Krivda and Jason Johnson. The Orioles were just here 20 years ago. Means is the ace of a Syd Thrift roster.
So many errant comments. Not surprising.
Means worked in the offseason on his mechanics with a training company and it paid off for Means and the O’s.
Hopefully another pitcher who followed Means’ lead may also benfit from work on mechanics at the same facility.
I mean this post even says they have no pitching depth… When in fact they have quite a bit of it in the mid minors.
Yeah they do. Grayson Rodriguez & DL Hall are the best of the bunch but were atleast another year away before the shutdown. Baumann, Kremer & Lowther all would of been up this season. If Means can continue to be a solid innings eating lefty slotting him in as a 3 or 4 could be a pretty good rotation. As an Oriole fan I’ve seen this before though with Britton, Arrieta, Matusz & Lowen so while it’s exciting to think about I’m not exactly holding my breath.
Under the old regime, I’d say the Orioles braintrust would ruin Means like they did so many pitchers by pigeonholing them all into throwing a certain way. So I can completely understand why you wouldn’t want to hold your breath. Those guys had no idea how to develop pitching.
This is a whole new regime, however. Means did well after they gave him the ball. He’s probably never going to be an ace, but a lot of soft tossing lefties have carved out some good careers. He could be a nice #4, or maybe even a #3 type. I look for him to make some more strides, too.
I agree those running the show now seem to be more advanced than the previous. Means also missed some time after the ASG and probably rushed back and caused his numbers to blow up a bit. I’m more than ok with him being in the rotation and being a Chris Tillman steady unspectacular type.
Yeah ok now ahaha
If you give 50 different guys a chance every season theres eventually going to be a couple guys who stick
5.0 bWAR in ‘19. I’d say they’ve got something.
Come on and sign Cashner. He was best pitcher we had the 1/2 before he was traded. 3.82 ERA with a 9-3 record. He loves it there and the team mates loved him. Come on and get it done.
No reason to sign Cashner, save the money or take a few shots at some younger players…
I think he’s legit… I mean I don’t think he’s really going to be much better than he was last season. But I think given his consistent approach and the consistency in which he was mostly successful in the minors that he can definitely be a solid 3/4 starter in the league. (Or on the Orioles their ace but that’s a different story) I definitely think he’s got what it takes to post ERAs in the mid to upper 3’s for several years which makes him a pretty solid ML pitcher.
He had a 9.9% HR/FB ratio, which is reasonable until you consider the fact that 50% of his contact were fly balls. He also only posted a .256 BABIP.
I’ll give him credit in that his fastball velocity was a bit higher last season, but as long as he’s in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, he’s looking to me like a 4.60 ERA type pitcher who can eat some 150-175 innings a season for about six or seven years.
The O’s should definitely be entertaining offers now as his value will never be higher. Plenty of teams who play in pitcher friendly parks could receive production equal to a mid-rotation guy (4.20 ERA maybe) based on a lower HR/FB%.
St. Louis or San Diego could be potential trade destinations
Oh please stop…