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9 Contract Options To Keep An Eye On In September

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The final push of the 2025 season is upon is, which means postseason chases for fans lucky enough to root for contending clubs and offseason dreams for those whose clubs are already out of the running. It also means that players with vesting clauses in their contract and/or performance incentives are beginning to unlock bonuses related to plate appearances, innings pitched, games finished, etc.

In particular, there are a handful of club options that are worth keeping an eye on either for incentive purposes or for season-long rehabbers who’ll have a limited September window to audition for next year’s club. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco already highlighted the three vesting options of note last month, but we’ll still take a look at how those players are tracking and also shine a light on six more club/mutual options that’ll have some present financial ramifications as well as potential 2026 roster implications.

Here are nine options to keep in the back of your mind as the season’s final weeks play out…

Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays

Fairbanks’ three-year, $12MM extension with Tampa Bay contained a $7MM club option for the 2026 season, but he’s boosted that option’s value considerably. Fairbanks already triggered $1.5MM in escalators based on his total appearances in the first three seasons of the deal, and he’s maxed out a set of escalators based on his number of games finished in 2025, tacking another $2MM onto the option price. His option at this moment is valued at $10.5MM, but if he appears in even two more games this year, he’ll boost his 2023-25 appearance count to 150, adding another $1MM to its value. If he appears in seven of Tampa Bay’s final 22 games, he’ll bump his 2025 appearance total to 60 and add yet another $1MM escalator onto the deal.

A $12.5MM salary for a reliever is steep for the Rays, but Fairbanks has pitched a career-high 52 1/3 innings and logged a 3.10 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate en route to 24 saves. Even if the Rays were hesitant to commit $11.5MM or $12.5MM to a frequently injured reliever who’ll turn 32 in December, a team with lesser budgetary concerns would be willing to do. The option will very likely be picked up either way, but the steeper the cost, the likelier an offseason trade becomes.

Andrés Muñoz, RHP, Mariners

Muñoz’s four-year, $7.5MM contract has become one of the game’s great bargains. At the time of the agreement, he’d made just one appearance for the M’s and had only 23 2/3 major league innings under his belt due to Tommy John surgery. The four-year term bought out his final pre-arbitration year and all three arbitration seasons, while also giving Seattle options on his first three free agent years. It’s easy to say now that Muñoz would’ve earned more through arbitration, but it’s hard to blame a 22-year-old who’d scarcely pitched in the majors for locking in that life-changing payday, and there was some modest risk for the Mariners in the deal as well.

The first of those three option years has a $6MM base value, but Muñoz has already boosted that by $500K. He unlocked $250K option escalators when he reached 20 and 30 games finished on the season. He’s finished 39 games now, and he’ll hit additional $250K escalators when he finishes his 40th and 45th games of the season. The first of those is a lock, and the second is certainly within reach.

Muñoz’s contract also has an $8MM club option for 2027 and a $10MM club option for 2028. He can boost both those figures by $1MM with the same set of escalators based on his games finished in the next two seasons, and beginning next year, he can also earn an additional $2MM per season based on games finished.

John Means, LHP, Guardians

Coming off his second career Tommy John surgery, Means signed a one-year, $1MM deal with the Guardians. Cleveland knew full well he’d miss most of the season recovering from last summer’s UCL operation. Means has a $6MM club option, with no buyout. He can’t boost that sum any further, but he’s on the cusp of returning to the majors and making what’ll amount to a two- or three-start audition.

Means, 32, has made four minor league rehab starts and has pitched well. He’s tossed 13 1/3 innings and yielded four earned runs (2.70 ERA) on eight hits and five walks with 13 punchouts. He’d been slated to make his final rehab start today before being scratched with an illness, but a return to the majors could happen as soon as next weekend.

When healthy, Means has been a high-quality starter. He’s posted a 3.68 ERA in 401 big league innings, all coming with the Orioles. He’s a former Opening Day starter and All-Star for Baltimore who has twice topped 140 innings in a season. A pair of UCL surgeries has limited him to just 52 1/3 innings since Opening Day 2022, however.

The Athletic’s Zack Meisel suggests that as long as Means is healthy, the option will be picked up. The Guards have committed a full year to rehabilitating the talented lefty. And, as explored at MLBTR last night, Cleveland has an uncharacteristic need for some pitching upgrades. A $6MM gamble on Means isn’t exactly a pricey roll of the dice, but the Guardians are one of the sport’s lowest-payroll clubs. If Means returns next week and gets rocked in his only two or three big league starts this year, it doesn’t feel like a given that they’ll dedicate that $6MM sum to him. If he looks even close to his old form, it seems like a reasonable risk to take. His handful of starts will be worth watching with a careful eye for Cleveland fans.

Jose Urquidy, RHP, Tigers

Urquidy is in a very similar situation to that of Means. He’s rehabbing from a second career Tommy John surgery and signed a one-year, $1MM deal with a $4MM club option for the 2026 season. Like Means, he’s on a minor league rehab assignment right now and could be activated in the near future. The former Astros righty tossed three scoreless innings for Triple-A Toledo three days ago and has now pitched 14 2/3 minor league innings with a 4.30 ERA and a 12-to-3 K/BB ratio.

Urquidy and Means have nearly identical career innings totals, though Urquidy’s 405 frames have come in a more condensed five seasons. From 2019-22, the right-hander posted a 3.74 ERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate in 342 innings for Houston. He was hit hard in a 2023 season that was shortened by shoulder troubles (5.29 ERA in 63 frames) and didn’t pitch in 2024 due to the elbow/forearm discomfort that eventually prompted his Tommy John surgery in early June last year.

If Urquidy comes back anywhere close to that 2019-22 form, a $4MM option should be a no-brainer, but a rocky performance could give the Tigers reason to pause. Urquidy’s return will also be worth monitoring since he could pitch his way into postseason roster consideration for Detroit.

Tyler Kinley, RHP, Braves

Atlanta looked past Kinley’s dismal 5.66 ERA with the Rockies and acquired him in July, clearly believing that the hard-throwing righty was only a few tweaks away from success. It’s been a masterstroke. Kinley has pitched 13 2/3 innings and allowed just one run since being traded to Atlanta in exchange for 26-year-old Double-A righty Austin Smith. The Braves have Kinley throwing even more sliders and working with a slightly lower release point, and the results have been stellar — albeit in a small sample.

The Braves were out of the postseason chase by the time the deadline rolled around, so the mere fact that they traded for a potential free agent with a 2026 club option signaled that they were open to exercising that option in spite of his struggles. Kinley’s success in Atlanta makes it quite likely he’ll return, but there’s a good chance it won’t be at the $5MM base price of his value. His contract contains option escalators based on games finished, the first of which kicks in at 20. Kinley has currently finished 18 games this year, including three with Atlanta. If he finishes two more, he’ll boost next year’s option to $5.5MM — and he’ll also unlock a $500K bonus for the current season.

It’s not a major change, but those incentives would bump him from a $2.08MM luxury tax hit to $2.875MM. Assuming the options on Kinley, Pierce Johnson, Chris Sale, Ozzie Albies and Ha-Seong Kim are all exercised, Atlanta will have $207.5MM committed to next year’s books when the offseason begins (before accounting for arbitration raises).

Harrison Bader, OF, Phillies

Bader has proven to be a terrific pickup for the Phils, hitting .307/.374/.477 in his first 99 plate appearances since being traded over from Minnesota. He’s up to 406 plate appearances on the season, which is just enough for his incentive structure to kick in. The $1.5MM buyout on Bader’s $10MM mutual option jumped to $1.7MM when he reached 400 plate appearances, and it’ll climb to $1.9MM at 425 plate appearances and $2.1MM if he reaches 450. It’s a minor bump, but for a Phillies club that’s a third-time luxury payor in the top tier of penalization, they’ll pay a 110% tax on the prorated portion of that extra $600K.

Given the strength of Bader’s play, they’ll happily pay that, of course, and the increased buyout does nothing to change the fact that Bader will return to free agency this winter. It’s been over a decade since the last time both sides of a mutual option were exercised in MLB (Brewers, Aramis Ramirez in 2014). Bader’s plus defense and strong season at the plate should position him for a multi-year deal in the offseason.

Jorge Polanco, INF, Mariners

Polanco is nine plate appearances shy of converting his 2026 mutual option into a $6MM player option. He’s also already tacked $2MM onto his 2025 salary via plate appearance incentives, and when he hits the 450 mark needed to trigger that player option, he’ll unlock another $500K. That’ll bump the veteran switch-hitter up to a $9.5MM salary in 2025. He’d get another $500K if he can make it to 500 plate appearances, but it’s not a guarantee he’ll get 59 plate appearances in between now and season’s end.

Though he’s slumped considerably in the middle months of the season, Polanco has heated up again in the past three weeks. He’s slashing .254/.319/.471 with 23 homers and 17 doubles in only 441 plate appearances — miles better than the down year he had with the M’s in 2024 before undergoing offseason knee surgery. He’s played well enough that he’s probably going to decline a $6MM player option anyhow, but it’ll be a nice safety net in the event of an injury (so long as it’s not a lower-half injury, as his contract contains language that’d prevent the player option from kicking in if he’s dealing with an injury related to that offseason knee procedure).

Matt Strahm, LHP, Phillies

Strahm is on the cusp of having his contract’s 2026 option vest. While that originally came at a $4.5MM base value, he’s already boosted the option value to $6.5MM via $1MM escalators at 40 and 50 innings pitched. Once he reaches 60, the option value increases to its maximum $7.5MM. The contract also stipulates that if Strahm pitches 60 innings and passes a physical at the end of the season, it’ll automatically vest.

Strahm has been excellent in 2025, logging 56 1/3 frames of 2.88 ERA ball with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s saved six games and tallied 17 holds. The Phillies would’ve picked up the option anyhow, but this removes any doubt.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Red Sox

Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract with Boston couldn’t have started much worse. The typically durable righty went down with a UCL injury in spring training last year, ultimately requiring surgery that wiped out his entire 2024 season. His 2025 return didn’t appear to be going well early on, either. Through his first seven starts, the 31-year-old was shelled for a 6.42 ERA in just 33 2/3 innings.

Since June 10, however, Giolito has returned to form. He’s started 15 games, totaled 91 2/3 innings and logged a pristine 2.26 earned run average. His 21.1% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in that time are both about half a percentage point worse than league average among starting pitchers, but it’s been a strong run overall, pushing his season ERA down to a tidy 3.38.

That turnaround would make Giolito’s $14MM club option likely to be picked up — but it’s not likely to remain a club option. The right-hander’s contract stipulates that with 140 innings pitched this year, that option converts into a $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout. With 125 1/3 innings under his belt, Giolito only needs another 14 2/3 frames in the final three weeks to convert that option to mutual status. If and when he reaches that point, Giolito is a lock to decline his half of the mutual option, collect that buyout and return to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. The Sox could — and likely would — counter with a qualifying offer, but the hefty contracts for mid-rotation arms like Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80MM), Sean Manaea (three years, $75MM), Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM), Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Luis Severino (three years, $67MM) in recent offseasons all suggest that Giolito can reasonably seek a pricey three- or four-year deal ahead of what’ll be his age-31 season.

Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central

Chicago White Sox

Pérez signed a $5MM free agent deal to serve as the veteran presence in a very young White Sox rotation. Chicago hoped he’d pitch well enough in the first half to net a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Pérez was reasonably effective through his first three starts, but he came out of his fourth outing with forearm discomfort. A flexor strain diagnosis immediately sent him to the 60-day injured list. He’s expected to avoid surgery but will miss almost the entire season. A deadline trade is off the table, and he’ll be bought out at season’s end.

As recently as a few months ago, Robert’s $20MM club option looked like excellent value, as did the matching option for 2026. He was a down-ballot MVP performer in 2023, when he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers while playing plus center field defense. The ’24 campaign was a struggle. Robert missed nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Chicago held him into this year rather than sell low in an offseason trade.

That put a lot of pressure on Robert to hit early in the year. An excellent few months could make him one of the top position players available at the deadline. A terrible start might tank what remained of his trade value. The early returns are disastrous: .138/.255/.238 with 30 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. There’s still time for a turnaround, but Robert may be following in the footsteps of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez — players whose once team-friendly extensions soured to the point that they were traded for meager returns and/or bought out.

Cleveland Guardians

Means underwent UCL surgery last June. That was his second such procedure within the past three years. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022 and had only just returned before his elbow gave out again. The Guardians took a $1MM flier in free agency. The deal includes a $6MM team option for next season. Means is hoping to return to the mound in August or September. His late-season form will determine whether Cleveland wants to keep him around next year.

If the Guardians exercise the option, Means could unlock up to $2.5MM in performance bonuses. He’d earn $75K apiece at 20, 30, 40 and 50 innings pitched next year. That climbs to $100K each for 60, 70, 80 and 90 frames; $125K at 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings; and $150K apiece for 140 and 150 frames.

Sewald had a pair of above-average seasons as Seattle’s closer between 2022-23. His production started to trend down after a ’23 deadline deal that sent him to Arizona. Sewald remained generally productive through the Snakes’ surprising World Series run that year. Last season was his worst since his 2021 breakout. He allowed a 4.31 ERA with declining velocity through 39 2/3 innings. The Guardians surprisingly guaranteed him $7MM to deepen an already excellent bullpen. The veteran righty has punched out 13 hitters through 10 1/3 frames, but he has already surrendered three homers while averaging just 90.2 MPH on his fastball.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit added Brebbia on a $2.75MM contract early in Spring Training. It was a roll of the dice on the veteran righty’s intriguing swing-and-miss rates. Brebbia had allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings last season (mostly with the White Sox), but he punched out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. Things have reversed early in his Detroit tenure. Brebbia has only allowed two runs (one earned) over his first nine innings. His 8.8% swinging strike rate is well below average, though, and he’s given out eight free passes — five walks and three hit batters.

Brebbia is working in low-leverage situations that suggest he’s towards the bottom of the bullpen depth chart. He’ll need to turn around his underlying numbers to pitch his way into more meaningful spots and, eventually, to convince the front office to exercise the option.

Brebbia could push the option price by another $4MM based on his performance this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone. He has finished six of eight appearances so far.

Urquidy’s situation is similar to that of Means. The former Astros righty required Tommy John surgery last June. Houston waived him at the end of the season. He reunited with A.J. Hinch in Detroit on a $1MM contract. Urquidy won’t be an option until the final few weeks of the season in a best case scenario. Detroit can gauge his progress to determine whether they want to retain him at a $4MM base value. Urquidy could tack on another $3MM if the Tigers exercise the option: $150K each at four and seven starts next year; $300K apiece for 10, 13, 16 and 19 starts; and $500K each at 22, 25 and 28 starts.

Kansas City Royals

  • Michael Lorenzen, RHP ($12MM mutual option, $1.5M buyout if team declines its end)

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back on a $7MM free agent deal. He’s playing on a $5.5MM salary and would collect a $1.5MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option assuming the Royals decline their end. He grabbed a season-opening rotation spot with both Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright on the shelf. Lorenzen has had a customary start to the season. He carried a 4.57 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate into this evening’s appearance against the Rockies. He’s through five scoreless innings against Colorado at the time of this writing.

Perez is making $22MM in the final season of the four-year extension that he signed in March 2021. At the time, it was the largest contract in organizational history. (Bobby Witt Jr. has since shattered that record.) Perez is a franchise stalwart, of course, but it was still surprising to see the Royals guarantee him $82MM for his age 32-35 seasons — especially given the heavy workloads he’d taken throughout his career.

The nine-time All-Star has rewarded the team’s faith. He led the majors with 48 homers and 121 RBI in 2021, though he was already under contract for that season anyhow. He combined for a .261/.307/.447 slash over the first three seasons of the extension. Perez eclipsed 20 home runs in each, and he won the AL Silver Slugger Award behind the dish with a .271/.330/.456 showing during last year’s playoff season.

Perez has started this season more slowly. He entered today’s doubleheader with a .185/.235/.293 line, though he has picked up four doubles over two games against Colorado pitching. If this continues all season, the Royals could face a tough decision, but the safer bet right now is that Kansas City will exercise the option. It’s tough to imagine Perez playing anywhere else.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota added Bader on a $6.25MM contract amidst a quiet offseason. They’ve preferred to have a capable right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can reduce Byron Buxton’s workload in center field while complementing their lefty-hitting corner bats. Bader has started 18 of the team’s first 25 games. He’s hitting .230/.319/.393 with a trio of home runs through 69 plate appearances. It’s an early improvement over last year’s .236/.284/.373 showing, but it’s unlikely the Twins would exercise their end of a $10MM option.

The bigger factor might be Bader’s semi-regular playing time. He could push the buyout price as high as $3MM based on this season’s plate appearance total. It has a $1.5MM base value and would climb by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500.

Note: Justin Topa’s arbitration contract contains a $2MM club option or a $225K buyout for next season. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines the option, as he will not have reached six years of service time.

Guardians Acquire Cody Bolton

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Cody Bolton has been traded to the Guardians for cash considerations. He was designated for assignment a few days ago when the M’s selected Jesse Hahn. The Guardians transferred John Means to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot and optioned Bolton to Triple-A Columbus.

Bolton, 27 in June, has 40 innings on his major league track record at this point. Between the 2023 Pirates and 2024 Mariners, he has a combined 5.40 earned run average. His 20.5% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate and 39.5% ground ball rate are each a bit worse than league average.

The Guards are presumably more interested in his minor league work. After missing the entire 2021 season due to a knee injury, he has since thrown 153 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.40 ERA. His 11.1% walk rate is still on the high side but he struck out 25% of opponents in that time. He averages almost 95 miles per hour on both his four-seam fastball and a sinker, as well as throwing a changeup, sweeper and cutter.

For Cleveland, they effectively had an open 40-man spot. Means underwent UCL surgery in June of last year. He also underwent Tommy John surgery on that same ligament in April of 2022. He’s likely to be out until midseason even in a best-case scenario. They have used that free roster spot to grab Bolton and stash him in Triple-A as some extra depth. He has less than a year of service time and can be cheaply retained into the future. However, he has just one option year remaining, so he’ll be out of options next year if he burns his last one here in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Guardians Sign John Means

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The Guardians announced the signing of free agent lefty John Means on a one-year deal with a 2026 club option. The Wasserman client will reportedly make $1MM for the upcoming season. The option carries a base value of $6MM and contains $1.5MM in bonuses: $75K apiece for every 10 innings between 20 and 50, $100K each for the next 10 innings up to 90, $125K for the following 10 innings through 130, and $150K each at 140 and 150 frames. The option does not include a buyout, so the guarantee is $1MM. Means is recovering from his second career Tommy John surgery and expected to be out of action until August.

As a corresponding move, Cleveland placed David Fry on the 60-day injured list. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November and won’t be able to play the field this year. Even returning as a DH will reportedly take six to eight months from that surgery, meaning he likely won’t return until midseason.

Means, 31, was once the Opening Day starter for the Orioles and looked to be a cornerstone in the rotation as the team navigated the late stages of its rebuild and moved back into a win-now mode. The southpaw pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 353 1/3 innings from 2019-22 but was limited to just eight innings in the final of those four years when a UCL tear necessitated Tommy John surgery.

Means grinded through a yearlong rehab process and returned late in the 2023 season. He didn’t make it out of May of 2024 without reinjuring his elbow, unfortunately, and the team announced a second UCL procedure for Means last June. That surgery figures to sideline him beyond the All-Star break — perhaps into the final month or so of the season. Given that timeline, he’s not a lock to pitch for Cleveland at all this year. Any setbacks of note would make it tough for the lefty to get back on a big league mound in 2025.

At his best, Means sat 92-94mph with a four-seamer and complemented the pitch with an 82 mph changeup and 85 mph slider. His strikeout rate typically sat just below league average, though Means’ impeccable command helped to offset his pedestrian bat-missing numbers.

Now, however, three full seasons have elapsed since Means last pitched even 25 big league innings in a season. He tossed 146 2/3 innings in 2019 when first establishing himself and logged a career-high 155 frames in 2021. He’s since combined for just 52 1/3 innings: eight in 2022, 23 2/3 in 2023 and 20 2/3 in 2024. When he was healthy enough to take the mound last year, Means’ fastball averaged only 90.5 mph — down more than three miles per hour from its peak of 93.8 in 2020.

There’s clearly a good bit of uncertainty with Means, which is reflected in the minimal nature of his guarantee this season. If he can get back to peak form, or even 80-90% of that form, he’ll be a bargain addition. If not, the Guardians are barely investing more than a league-minimum salary and can simply move on at season’s end. Stocking up on late-season reinforcements for the staff makes some sense for the Guardians, who don’t have the type of rotation certainty that we’ve generally come to expect from them over the years.

Right-hander Tanner Bibee has emerged as the unquestioned staff leader, but the rest of the group is far less certain. Gavin Williams and Logan Allen, both top prospects who graduated alongside Bibee and impressed in 2023, took substantial steps backwards in 2024. Right-hander Ben Lively has found a second act in his MLB career after spending three years in the KBO, but he sat 89.9 mph with his heater last year. He’s far from a sure thing, but coming off 151 innings of 3.81 ERA ball, he’s likely locked into a spot. Beyond Bibee and Lively, things are more up in the air.

Triston McKenzie opted to forgo surgery in 2023 when he was diagnosed with a UCL injury, and his 2024 season included 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA and noticeably lesser stuff on the mound. Cleveland picked up hard-throwing righty Luis Ortiz from the Pirates in the Andres Gimenez/Spencer Horwitz trade this offseason, but he’s something of a project, having yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation. Swingman Jakob Junis signed a one-year deal within the past week and could factor into the rotation or serve as a long man in Stephen Vogt’s bullpen. Shane Bieber is back with the club on a two-year deal, but he’s rehabbing from his own Tommy John operation, performed April 12 last year. He’s not likely to be an option until May or June, and the rehab from any major surgery comes with the possibility of setbacks.

In all likelihood, Cleveland will open the season with a rotation including some combination of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Ortiz, McKenzie, Junis and Allen. Others on the 40-man roster include Joey Cantillo, Doug Nikhazy and Slade Cecconi, while non-roster hopefuls in camp include veterans Vince Velasquez and Kolby Allard.

There’s plenty of volume, but the Guards will need to continue showing their knack for coaxing quality performances out of unassuming pitchers if they’re to repeat as champions in an American League Central where they’ll face competition from the Tigers, Royals and Twins. Getting Means back in mid-August could serve the same effective boost as a trade deadline pickup, but only time will tell where his velocity will sit and what kind of workload he can be realistically expected to shoulder.

MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported that the Guardians were in “advanced talks” with Means. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com had the one-year agreement with a ’26 option. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported the $1MM guarantee, option value of up to $7.5MM, and the August return timeline. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the incentive breakdown.

Guardians, John Means “In Advanced Talks” About Contract

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The Guardians and free agent southpaw John Means may be nearing an agreement, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo hears from sources that the two sides are “in advanced talks.”

Means underwent a Tommy John surgery last June, so it is possible his recovery process might prevent from pitching at all during the 2025 season.  It stands to reason that Means and the Guards could be discussing a two-year contract that would pay Means a limited salary in 2025 and then a larger guarantee in 2026 when he would presumably be ready to take on a full workload.

Cleveland re-signed Shane Bieber (coming off a TJ surgery of his own) to something of a similar structure this offseason worth $26MM in guaranteed money, though it is fair to assume Means will be landing less money due to his more checkered recent health history.  Means has pitched only 52 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2022 due to not one but two different Tommy John procedures.

These injuries brought a sour end to an overall successful seven-season run for Means with the Orioles, as the left-hander posted a 3.68 ERA over 401 innings for the only organization of his professional career.  This stint in Baltimore might technically not be over yet since the O’s have had interest in re-signing Means, but Cleveland has now emerged as perhaps a more ardent suitor for Means’ services.

Means wouldn’t be an option for the Guardians until the second half of the season at the absolute earliest, so he could join Bieber as some late-season reinforcements to a rotation that has a few question marks heading into 2025.  Luis Ortiz, Slade Cecconi, and swingman Jakob Junis were brought to help bolster a rotation that was average at best last season, though Ortiz is the only one of that trio projected for a rotation spot at the moment.  Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Triston McKenzie are penciled in as the rest of the starting five, though there figures to be some fluidity as the Guards figure out how to best get the ball to their elite bullpen.

Orioles “Haven’t Closed The Door On” Re-Signing John Means

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John Means is a free agent for the first time in his career, though the southpaw entered the open market under a cloud of uncertainty following Tommy John surgery last June.  It was the second TJ procedure in a little over two years’ time for Means, which has limited him to 52 1/3 Major League innings over the 2022-24 seasons.

Despite this checkered health situation, a reunion with the Orioles still seems like a possibility.  MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “haven’t closed the door on” Means, and “it would be a mistake to downplay their interest. Re-signing him is a possibility.”  This interest might not translate into a contract in the immediate future, as Means is expected to only reach a deal later in the offseason given that he’ll be sidelined for most or all of the 2025 campaign.

In all likelihood, Means and his reps at the Wasserman Agency are looking for the type of backloaded, two-year contract that has become the norm for pitchers recovering from a long-term injury.  Such deals commonly see the pitcher receive a small guaranteed salary in the first year with the understanding that most or all of the season will be spent rehabbing, and more guaranteed money is backloaded into the second year when the pitcher is hopefully healthy and ready to go.

An 11th-round pick for Baltimore in the 2014 draft, Means has spent his entire pro career in an Orioles uniform, posting a 3.68 ERA over 401 innings in the orange-and-black.  Means’ tenure has been highlighted by a second-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2019, an All-Star selection in that same season, and a no-hitter in 2021.  This early success came while the Orioles were in their deep rebuild, and Means was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise dismal roster.

Unfortunately for Means, his injury problems have kept him from playing much of a role in the Orioles’ emergence from that rebuild.  He underwent his first Tommy John surgery in May 2022 and returned in time to make four starts in September 2023, but elbow soreness kept him off Baltimore’s playoff roster.  He didn’t make his 2024 season debut until May 4, and Means made another four starts before UCL damage again led to another long layoff.

The usual 13-15 month recovery period for Tommy John procedures would put July 2025 as the best-case scenario for Means’ return date.  Of course, the fact that this is his second TJ surgery (and in such a short span of time) could very well push Means to the longer end of that projected timeline, and even one setback could keep him off a Major League mound entirely in 2025.

This is purely speculative given the lack of details on Means’ recovery process, but a quicker return to the majors might be possible if he aimed to return as a reliever for the 2025 season.  Rather than rebuild the arm strength needed for a starters’ workload, Means could focus on just working one or two innings at most, in order to perhaps make him ready for July or August.  Means has started 73 of his 78 career games, and would well return to starting down the road, once he has knocked off some rust with a few relief outings in 2025.  Or, since Means is turning 32 in April and has such a lengthy injury history, he could even consider a full-time move to the bullpen as a way of keeping him healthy and extending his career.

Re-signing with the O’s might also make relief pitching more of a direct short-term option for Means, since cracking Baltimore’s bullpen could be easier than working his way into what is a pretty crowded rotation depth chart.  Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano have been signed this season to join Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer as the top starting options, with Albert Suarez likely operating as a swingman, and several depth arms (Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Brandon young) at Triple-A.  Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells also aiming to return from UCL surgeries of their own — Bradish a TJ procedure and Wells an internal brace procedure — at some point in 2025.

The Orioles obviously know Means’ medicals better than any other team, and their continued interest in the left-hander indicates some confidence that Means will be able to recover in some form.  Bringing Means back on a two-year deal also lines up a starting option for 2026, which is noteworthy since Morton, Sugano, and Eflin are all slated to become free agents next winter.

Red Sox Have Spoken With John Means

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It seems that Corbin Burnes isn’t the only former Orioles All-Star to catch the Red Sox’s eye. According to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Boston has had some discussions with free agent starter John Means. Once a promising hurler, the southpaw’s career has been derailed by injuries over the last three years. He underwent his second Tommy John procedure this past May and will not be able to pitch for most of the 2025 season.

An 11th-round draft pick in 2014, Means was never a highly-ranked prospect. However, he pitched reasonably well throughout the minor leagues and earned a spot on Baltimore’s Opening Day roster in 2019. After three strong appearances from the bullpen, he made his first big league start in mid-April and continued to thrive out of the rotation. He was named an All-Star that summer and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that fall.

From 2019-21, Means made 67 appearances (63 starts) pitching to a 3.73 ERA and 4.48 SIERA in 345 1/3 innings. He was rarely dominant, struggling to miss bats or induce groundballs. However, his control was excellent (he walked just 5.1% of batters), and he averaged 5 1/3 innings per start. He may not have been much more than a league-average starting pitcher, but there’s value in league-average, especially for a basement-dwelling club like the Orioles of that era.

Unfortunately, injuries were always a problem for Means. He spent time on the IL in each season from 2019-21 with various arm ailments. Then, things took a turn for the worse in April 2022 when he needed his first Tommy John surgery. His left elbow and forearm continued to give him trouble as he tried to make his way back, and eventually, he needed a second Tommy John in May 2024. For what it’s worth, he was quite effective in the 10 starts he managed to make between 2022-24, giving up just 16 earned runs (2.75 ERA) in 52 1/3 innings. Yet, that thin silver lining pales in comparison to all the cause for concern.

Means is most likely seeking a two-year deal that will allow him to prioritize his rehab for most of 2025. In return, he would, ideally, provide his new club with a full, healthy season in 2026. However, his extensive injury history and lack of upside could prevent any teams from offering him such a two-year guarantee. Thus, he might be looking at something more like the one-year contract Matthew Boyd signed with the Guardians last summer. That deal was technically worth $3.5MM, although it was prorated to $1.75MM because Boyd signed mid-season. Like Means, Boyd was an injury-prone arm coming off Tommy John surgery when he signed with Cleveland.

If Boston is seriously considering Means, it would likely be as a low-risk depth signing with the potential to pay off late in the year. In other words, signing Means would not necessarily take them out of the running for other starting pitchers on the free agent or trade markets if chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is serious about continuing to pursue rotation upgrades for the 2025 season.

Orioles Notes: Holliday, Means, Kremer

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The Orioles placed Jackson Holliday on the minor league injured list yesterday. Despite the lack of impact on the club’s active roster, the move nonetheless raised eyebrows thanks to Holliday’s status as the consensus #1 overall prospect in the sport. Fortunately, club GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASN’s Melanie Newman) that Holliday is dealing with a “barking” shoulder but that the issue isn’t serious and that he’s expected to need only a “few weeks” of rest before he returns to action.

That’s surely a relief for fans in Baltimore, as Holliday figures to join fellow youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez as a key part of the core for the Orioles going forward once he establishes himself at the big league level. The 20-year-old infielder got his first taste of big league action earlier this year but struggled badly with a with just two hits in 36 trips to the plate across ten games. That tough stretch led the Orioles to send Holliday back to the minors, and he’s continued to hit well at the Triple-A level since his return with a .252/.418/.429 slash line in 189 trips to the plate.

That being said, Holliday has struggled (at least by his own lofty standards) in the month of June so far, hitting just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage, although his proclivity for drawing walks has allowed him to remain productive over all. Between the youngster’s relative struggles and his apparent elbow issue, it’s hardly a surprise that the Orioles have decided to play it safe with their prized prospect. Fortunately for fans in Baltimore, the Orioles lineup has played incredibly well to this point in the season and is hardly in need of reinforcements. The club’s 116 wRC+ is the third best figure in baseball this year, and Jorge Mateo has posted a decent .236/.281/.441 (103 wRC+) slash line while getting the lion’s share of playing time at Holliday’s likely long term position of second base.

In other news around the Orioles, southpaw John Means recently underwent his second Tommy John surgery in just over two years after making four starts for Baltimore late in the 2023 campaign and another four starts this year. Despite the surely frustrating physical setbacks, however, Means recently told reporters (including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball) that he fully intends to return to pitching after he completes his post-surgery rehab, which will sideline him for the entire 2024 season and much of 2025.

“I still want to pitch, honestly,” Means said (per Dubroff). “I’d like to fail on the field before I give it up. I feel like if I go there, I can still pitch and get outs. I still feel really confident about my ability. I have to have my elbow keep up.”

For all of Means’s struggles in terms of staying on the field, he’s certainly been effective when healthy. The southpaw has a career 3.68 ERA with a 4.56 FIP across his 401 innings of work in the majors, and although he’s managed just ten starts since the beginning of the 2022 campaign he’s been nothing short of excellent in them with a 2.75 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 52 1/3 innings of work. Given those strong results, it’s not hard to imagine Means, 31, returning to action as an effective and valuable starter once he’s finally healthy. It’s unclear whether or not that return will come in an Orioles uniform, however, as the lefty is set to become a free agent after the 2024 campaign.

With Means and Tyler Wells both sidelined by UCL surgery and ace righty Kyle Bradish dealing with UCL issues of his own, the Baltimore rotation is in a bit of a tough spot. While Corbin Burnes and Rodriguez combine to form a strong top of the rotation, the club has been left to rely on Cole Irvin, Cade Povich, and Albert Suarez to round out the group due to a number of injuries. Fortunately, help could be on the way soon for the club as MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that right-hander Dean Kremer is expected to begin a rehab assignment with a “40-ish” pitch outing tomorrow.

MLB.com goes on to note that it remains up in the air whether or not Kremer will need another rehab start before returning to the Orioles, meaning the 28-year-old could potentially return to action for the club as soon as sometime late next week. The return of Kremer, who has been on the injured list for a little less than a month due to a triceps strain, would provide reliable innings for the Orioles pitching staff. Since the start of the 2022 season, Kremer has pitched to a solid 3.83 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 4.30 FIP in 348 innings of work for Baltimore.

Orioles Claim Levi Stoudt

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The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve claimed right-hander Levi Stoudt off waivers from the Mariners, who’d designated him for assignment earlier in the week. Left-hander John Means was transferred from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Stoudt has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk.

Stoudt, 26, was the Mariners’ third-round pick in 2019 and for a few years ranked among the organization’s most promising pitching prospects. Though he was never quite as highly touted as current rotation members like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo during their own prospect days, Stoudt was a well-regarded member of a deep Mariners pitching pipeline. He was talented enough to be included as a secondary piece — behind headliners Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo — in the trade that netted Luis Castillo from Cincinnati.

Stoudt would go on to make his big league debut with the Reds in 2023, pitching just 10 1/3 innings. The Pennsylvania native was tagged for 11 runs on 16 hits and eight walks over a stretch of four one-off appearances, being optioned back to Triple-A Louisville after each. Most of the damage against him came in his debut effort, when he was rocked for seven runs in four innings. The Reds removed him from the 40-man roster in the 2023-24 offseason, and the Mariners wound up reacquiring Stoudt via waivers.

Although Stoudt made six sharp starts in Triple-A with the Reds following the 2022 trade that sent him to Cincinnati, he struggled in Louisville last season, posting a 6.23 ERA in 82 1/3 frames. Things haven’t gone any better so far in 2024. He’s made 12 appearances with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma (11 starts) and posted an unsightly 6.92 earned run average. Stoudt has fanned a well below-average 14.9% of his opponents and issued walks at nearly as high a clip (12.4%).

Rough as his performance in Triple-A has been, Stoudt is an optionable starter with big league experience and a heater that sits just shy of 95 mph. Scouting reports during his prospect peak credited him with plus command — though that hasn’t been the case this season, clearly — with Baseball America calling his split-changeup an at-times “diabolical weapon” that lacked consistency. He’ll give the Orioles some needed rotation depth on the heels of season-ending surgeries for Means and Tyler Wells, and it’s always possible that Baltimore could shift him to a short relief role and see if his stuff plays up and allows him to emerge as a high-end relief option.

MLBTR Podcast: Gambling Scandal, The State Of The Blue Jays And The Orioles’ Rotation Depth

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Since the Brewers and Willy Adames didn’t reach an extension, is there any chance the Brewers consider trading him this summer? (24:25)
  • It seems like there are more season-ending injuries, but is there any data to support that? If there is, is MLB taking a look at mitigating? (28:25)
  • What will be the financial components of the deadline? Are there any teams that might have a surprising amount of payroll room? (33:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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