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John Means Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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APRIL 27: Baltimore general manager Mike Elias announced that Means’ surgery was successful. The team is hopeful he can return at some point before the All-Star Break in 2023 (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).

APRIL 23: John Means announced via Twitter that he is indeed going to need Tommy John surgery. This has been the feared outcome since the Orioles placed Means on the 60-day injured list last week. He will miss the rest of this season, and most likely, a large chunk of next season as well.

Means is unquestionably Baltimore’s top starter, having pitched to a 3.72 ERA/4.59 FIP over 353 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season. He’s the only O’s pitcher to even exceed 200 frames over that stretch, and no other Baltimore starter with 100+ frames in that time has an ERA below 4.79.

As the Orioles remain amidst a complete rebuild, Means has been a frequently-mentioned trade candidate. He might’ve found himself on the move last summer had he not suffered a June shoulder injury that cost him more than six weeks. The 28-year-old returned in July but wasn’t as effective during the season’s second half as he’d been earlier in the year. Reports over this past offseason suggested Means was available, but there was no indication the team came particularly close to pulling the trigger on a deal. He entered the season as a possible deadline target for pitching-needy contenders, but that’s off the table now that he will go under the knife.

Orioles Transfer John Means On 60-Day IL, Select Marcos Diplan

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today, the most notable being John Means getting transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. That opens a spot on the 40-man roster for right-hander Marcos Diplan, whose contract was selected. To make room for Diplan on the active roster, left-hander Alexander Wells was optioned to Triple-A.

It’s an unfortunate but unsurprising development for the Orioles. Means was initially placed on the IL on Friday with a left elbow strain. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun relays that it’s actually a sprain, not a strain, clarifying that the latter involves bone-to-bone tissue as opposed to muscle or muscle-to-bone tissue. Although it was reported that Means would be undergoing further testing, O’s manager Brandon Hyde said that the southpaw would be out for “a while.” Now that he has been moved to the 60-day IL, he will be on the shelf until at least mid-June. Hyde said today that they still plan on getting second opinions, but they’ve obviously accepted that there’s no chance of a quick return.

The performance of Means has been one of the few bright spots for the Orioles over the past few seasons, as the club has spent most of the past five years in the AL East basement. Since his 2018 debut, Means has appeared in 70 games, throwing 356 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA. His 21.2% strikeout rate is just below league average, though his 5% walk rate is excellent. The 28-year-old (29 next week) can be controlled through the 2024 season and will be making an affordable 2022 salary in the $3MM range. (His arbitration hearing has yet to occur, due to the lockout pushing all hearings into the season. Means filed at $3.1MM with the team filing at $2.7MM. The arbitration process is backwards-looking and won’t be affected by this injury.)

In the short-term, this will thin out a rotation that was already short on proven options. Offseason signee Jordan Lyles is the most-seasoned arm, followed by less-experienced rotation mates Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann and Spenser Watkins. With Means out, a spot is open for someone like Keegan Akin or Zac Lowther. The club does have two very well regarded prospects in DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez. Both of them are in Triple-A and could be considered for an MLB debut at some point. In the long-term, the club wasn’t likely to be competitive anytime soon, but the injury will certainly take a bite out of Means’ trade value. Due to the fact that he’s been playing well on a poor team, he’s naturally been floated as a speculative trade candidate. Any trade talks will now have to be put on the backburner until he can return to health.

As for Diplan, he made his MLB debut with the Orioles last year, eventually throwing 30 innings of 4.50 ERA ball out of their bullpen. However, his 19.5% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate were both a few ticks worse than league average. He was outrighted off the roster at the end of last year but re-signed to a minor league deal in the offseason. The 25-year-old still has an option remaining.

Orioles Place John Means On Injured List, Select Travis Lakins

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3:23pm: Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun) that Means has a muscular strain in his forearm. The southpaw is headed for further testing to determine if there’s any structural damage, and Hyde said the O’s will be without their top pitcher for “a while.”

2:15pm: The Orioles announced Friday that they’ve placed left-hander John Means on the 10-day injured list due to a left elbow strain. In his place, they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Travis Lakins Sr. from Triple-A Norfolk. Lefty Kevin Smith was outrighted to Norfolk after clearing waivers, thus opening a spot on the roster for Lakins.

It’s an ominous IL placement for Means, who’s been Baltimore’s top (and only consistently serviceable) starter since 2019. The 28-year-old southpaw carries a 3.72 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate and a stellar 5.1% walk rate through 353 1/3 innings in that time — including a 3.38 ERA in two starts this season. Means, however, exited his most recent outing due to forearm tightness, which is often a precursor to an elbow injury. The O’s haven’t made any further announcements about the extent of the strain or a possible timetable for Means’ return, though a strain, by definition, involves at least some degree of stretching or tearing.

Lakins, 27, will return for a third straight season of big league work with the O’s. He posted a strong 2.81 ERA in 25 2/3 innings for the Birds back in 2020, albeit with more dubious peripheral stats (in particular, his 11.2% walk rate). He tossed another 28 innings with the Orioles in 2021 but saw the pendulum swing the other direction on his results, as opponents knocked him around to the tune of a 5.79 ERA.

A sixth-rounder by the Red Sox back in 2015, Lakins has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors and compiled a 4.21 ERA in 77 frames, albeit with a sub-par 19.7% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate. He’s posted similar numbers in 66 career innings at the Triple-A level as well.

As for Smith, the 24-year-old lefty had yielded just two runs through his first 7 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball this season. That said, he’d also issued six walks against just three strikeouts in that time — a continuation of last year’s troublesome penchant for issuing free passes. Smith didn’t have major control problems prior to reaching Triple-A, but since debuting at that level in 2021, he’s walked a sky-high 18% of the 306 opponents he’s faced. Paired with only an average strikeout rate, those issues locating the ball led him to go unclaimed by all 29 other teams. He’ll remain with the O’s and hope to work out those command issues.

John Means Leaves Start For “Precautionary” Reasons With Forearm Tightness

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Orioles left-hander John Means left tonight’s start against the Brewers after four innings, with the team announcing he’d experienced some forearm tightness. That’s always an ominous-sounding development, given how often forearm tightness can be a precursor to serious elbow issues, yet neither Means nor O’s manager Brandon Hyde sounded overly concerned.

Hyde called the early exit “precautionary” when speaking with reporters after the game (via Dan Connolly of the Athletic). The southpaw began feeling tightness in the third inning, according to the skipper, before raising the attention of the trainers after the fourth. Means said it was the second consecutive start in which he’d had some discomfort (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) but indicated he wasn’t particularly worried and hoped to resume throwing within a few days.

The team will know more about the issue after receiving the MRI results, although it’s a bit of a relief to hear both Means and Hyde express optimism in the immediate aftermath. Means missed more than six weeks last season after straining his shoulder. At the time he landed on the shelf, he owned a 2.28 ERA/4.20 FIP; after returning in July, he pitched to a 4.88 ERA/5.01 FIP.

It’s too simplistic to attribute Means’ second-half struggles solely to the shoulder issue, but it seemed as if the injury were having some amount of deleterious effect. Obviously, it’s not clear his current forearm discomfort is tied at all to his prior shoulder issues, but it’s at least moderately alarming to hear of Means again dealing with arm troubles.

If healthy, the 28-year-old (29 later this month) could be one of the top arms available on the midseason trade market. Means is controllable through 2024 via arbitration, but the O’s are still firmly amidst a rebuild and reportedly floated him in discussions with other clubs over the winter.

His 2022 salary is still yet to be determined, as he and the Orioles are likely headed to an arbitration hearing after he filed for $3.1MM versus the team’s offer of $2.7MM. The MRI results won’t have any bearing on that hearing, which will be a backwards-looking process based on his pre-2022 body of work.

AL East Notes: Mancini, Means, JDM, Marwin

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The Orioles haven’t engaged either first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini or lefty John Means about a contract extension, reports Dan Connolly of The Athletic. Mancini is set to become a free agent at season’s end. Means is controlled through 2024.

It’s wholly unsurprising, as the Orioles haven’t had an appetite for any long-term investments during their ongoing rebuild. Even the one-year, $7MM deal they agreed to with right-hander Jordan Lyles prior to the lockout was seen as a surprise, as the O’s hadn’t previously given out more than a $3MM guarantee to any free agent since hiring general manager Mike Elias more than three years ago.

Still, as Connolly explores, the lack of an extension and the seemingly inevitable trade of Mancini — be it in the next couple weeks or this summer — will be a wildly unpopular move both among fans and in the clubhouse. Mancini, the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year, was already a fan favorite in Baltimore before overcoming stage-3 colon cancer and returning to the field with a generally productive 2021 season. He’s also entrenched as a clubhouse leader in Baltimore. The O’s will start spending money at some point once they’re ready to emerge from what’s now a four-year tanking effort, but at the moment they project to just a $64.5MM payroll — $23MM of which is dead money still owed to Chris Davis.

More from the AL East…

  • Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez will likely see increased time in the outfield this season, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. While Martinez will continue to operate as Boston’s primary designated hitter, manager Alex Cora also said this week that Martinez will likely start in right field against left-handed pitchers — effectively pushing Jackie Bradley Jr. (who’ll start in right field against right-handed pitchers) into a platoon role. There won’t be a set DH on days against left-handed opponents, as Cora said he’ll use those opportunities to keep others in the lineup fresh. Martinez has played primarily left field when he’s been on the outfield grass in recent years, but Cotillo notes that Cora’s preference is to keep Alex Verdugo in left, Enrique Hernandez in center, and not move the outfielders around so frequently.
  • Veteran utilityman Marwin Gonzalez is in camp with the Yankees on a minor league deal, and manager Aaron Boone tells Dan Martin of the New York Post he hopes the switch-hitting Gonzalez will play his way into a roster spot, citing a desire for more versatility off his bench. “That’s something I think Tampa [Bay] has done a really good job of,” said Boone. “Their roster complements one another really well. I hope that’s the case with us.” Meanwhile, Newsday’s Erik Boland tweets that Gonzalez is “all but a lock” to make the Yankees’ roster despite having inked a minor league contract. The recent agreement to expand rosters to 28 players for the early portion of the season certainly can’t hurt Gonzalez’s chances. He’d earn a $1.15MM salary if he’s added to the big league roster.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

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In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Seven Years And Counting For The Orioles Rotation

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Though the Giants have made putting together a starting rotation look easy, most teams struggling to contend know how complex a process building a competent pitching staff can be. Bullpens are fickle, so consistency in run prevention is best guaranteed with a reliable rotation.

The Baltimore Orioles know the challenge better than most. The rotation at Camden Yards finished 26th in 2021 by measure of fWAR, but last with a 5.99 ERA and 5.41 FIP. In fact, their rotation has finished in the bottom-10 by ERA AND FIP in every season since 2014. That’s a pretty remarkable run of incompetence. It’s almost impressive, especially considering they were able to overcome those subpar rotations to make the playoffs in 2016 and finish .500 in 2015.

The Orioles invested in their rotation this offseason for the first time in GM Mike Elias’ tenure. Small as that investment was (they signed Jordan Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a team option for a second season), it’s a step in the right direction. Lyles alone isn’t going to keep the Orioles from an 8th consecutive season with a bottom-10 rotation. He made 30 starts in 2021 and finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR, after all. But he also tossed 180 innings, which makes a difference in saving a bullpen and providing enough breathing room for young rotation arms to thrive.

Forget productivity for a moment. The Orioles rotation will have a watchable rotation if and when D.L. Hall and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves in the Majors. That duo is likely to start next season in Triple-A, but they’re close. When they arrive, there’s going to be some honest-to-god excitement around Baltimore’s rotation. That duo probably won’t have a full season in the bigs until 2023, however.

There’s at least one more season of fungible, fill-in-the-blanks taking the bump in Baltimore. Just because the big-name prospects aren’t set to arrive doesn’t mean there’s no progress to be made this season. After all, with Lyles and presumptive ace John Means, they’re in a better place than usual.

Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com went through each of their internal candidates to fill out the rotation behind Means and Lyles. Dubroff lists Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann as the incumbent candidates, with Zimmermann as the most accomplished of the group, even if he was most successful as a long man out of the pen.

The other way to build out the rotation, of course, is through free agency. The Orioles aren’t probably going to spend any more than they already have in terms of a one-year salary, but for free agents at the bottom of the hierarchy, Baltimore offers more opportunity than most other rotations around the game. Matt Harvey is the mold, a former star looking to rehabilitate his image.

Harvey posted 1.9 fWAR but only a 6.27 ERA, but he did make 28 starts and toss 127 2/3 innings in 2021. A 4.60 FIP suggests Harvey might have something left in the tank. Besides, amazing though this is, Harvey’s 2021 ranks as the 13th-best output by fWAR during this seven-year run of Orioles’ bottom-feeding. There simply hasn’t been much success of any kind, even the tempered brand of success offered by Harvey in 2021.

Unfortunately for Baltimore, most teams looking for mid-season upgrades have higher standards than the Orioles. Their goal for 2022 should be to add arms that might actually be flippable at the deadline. Lyles qualifies, even if his numbers from last season aren’t all that inspiring.

Other names that might be available to Baltimore are Jose Urena, Mike Fiers, Aaron Sanchez, and/or Mike Foltynewicz. Guys with slightly more upside, say, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Chad Kuhl, or Steven Brault might cost a little more than Baltimore wants to spend. Carlos Martinez or Matthew Boyd might present the highest upside, either in terms of their current ability or their eventual trade value, but even those arms are higher up the totem pole than Baltimore has ventured in years past.

What could change that calculus is a trade of Means. There’s not a real high likelihood that Baltimore wants to move Means at this juncture, but if it means selling high on the southpaw, they might consider it. There are enough teams in need of pitching to make Baltimore listen to pitches. If they do move the 28-year-old, they’d probably be better off in the long run, but it all but guarantees another disastrous finish for their starting staff in 2022.

Frankly, Means isn’t unique enough of a talent to hold onto, should the prospect return be right. But teams also haven’t been eager to move prospects of value recently. The longer they hold onto Means, the more his salary will rise, and the lesser of a trade piece he becomes.

Then again, teams generally aren’t as desperate in the offseason because there are more options available and more margin for error with a full season ahead. If they hold onto Means to start the year, he will still have a year plus of team control at the deadline, and that might be just the right calculus to make a deal happen.

It’s not hard to blame the Orioles for holding onto Means. Prospects aren’t a sure thing. Kevin Gausman had the best season by fWAR (2016) of any Baltimore starter in this current era, and when they traded him, Zimmermann was a big part of the return. So it’s not as if trading off their starters has yielded the path to a turnaround.

The rub here is that GM Mike Elias has yet to actually try to build a winning rotation. His goal since his arrival has been to build a long-term competitive engine, a process that’s still very much in the works. So they can sign more free agents, and they can trade Means or hold onto him, but until Elias is willing to really give it a go, expect Baltimore’s rotation to stay in the bottom 10.

Orioles Reportedly Discussing John Means In Trade Talks

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As  the Orioles prepare to enter what will be the fourth season of a full-scale rebuild, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that they’re “dangling” lefty John Means in trades in talks with other clubs (Twitter link).

Means, 28, is the lone established starter on the Orioles’ roster. Over the past three seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.73 ERA through 345 1/3 innings out of the Baltimore rotation. Means is the only pitcher who’s started more than 31 games for the O’s over the past three seasons (63), and of the 18 pitchers to make at least seven starts in that time he’s one of just three with an ERA south of 5.00. (Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy, no longer with the club, are the only others.)

Dating back to 2019, Means’ 5.1% walk rate is the sixth-lowest among all pitchers with at least 300 innings. His strikeout rate sat at 19% in 2019 but has jumped to 23% in 2020-21, bringing that roughly in line with the big league average. Home runs have been an issue for Means, who has yielded 1.69 big flies per nine frames. Being an extreme fly-ball pitcher at the homer-friendly Camden Yards can’t help the matter, but Means has struggled with the long ball on the road as well.

The 2021 season looked to be something of a breakout showing for Means early on, before a shoulder injury sidelined him for a portion of the year. The lefty pitched to a 2.05 ERA through his first 11 starts, headlined by a 12-strikeout no-hitter (and near perfect game) against the Mariners on May 5. Means faced just five hitters in his 12th start of the season before departing with a shoulder strain that would sideline him for more than six weeks.

There was no appreciable change in Means’ velocity upon returning from that IL stint — 92.9 mph average fastball pre-injury; 92.8 mph post-injury — but the southpaw yielded a 4.88 ERA with a diminished strikeout rate in 14 starts to close out the season, finishing out the year  with a seven-run drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays.

With three-plus years of service time now under his belt, Means is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $3.1MM salary for Means in his first trip through the arb process. He’d be eligible for further raises upon that salary in each of the next two offseasons before reaching free agency following the 2024 season.

Means’ first notable salary increase of his career surely plays a role in any willingness to trade him, but it should be noted that there’s no reason that salary should cause payroll issues in Baltimore. The Orioles don’t have a single guaranteed contract on their 2022 roster, with the lone set cost coming via the dead money they owe to Chris Davis following his retirement. Even with that sum, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a payroll around $56MM, which would rank among the lowest in baseball. Potential trades of Means, Trey Mancini (projected $7.9MM salary), Anthony Santander ($3.7MM), etc. would further drop that figure.

With three years of affordable club control remaining, Means ought to command a strong return even with this past season’s shoulder injury and subsequent scuffles. That said, if the Orioles actually make the leap and trade their lone rotation lock, the 2022 staff could look quite grisly — at least early on. Top pitching prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall are nearing big league readiness, but the immediate rotation options behind Means have yet to find much in the way of MLB success. Jorge Lopez, Bruce Zimmermann, Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer and Spenser Watkins have all started big league games, but Zimmermann’s 5.30 ERA is the best of the group.

The Orioles could, of course, bring in a veteran or two on a low-cost deal in free agency, but they haven’t been willing to spend on veteran starters since their rebuild began. They’ve handed out a few minor league deals for veteran arms (Matt Harvey, Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc, Felix Hernandez), but the only pitcher given a guaranteed contract under GM Mike Elias was an $800K deal to Nate Karns in Feb. 2019.

Orioles GM Mike Elias On Deadline, Future

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com) just after their relatively inactive deadline. Baltimore are firmly entrenched in the “seller” category, with the worst record in the American League and only the Diamondbacks keeping them from being worst in all of MLB. But despite that, the club only made a pair of minor trades as the deadline approached, sending Freddy Galvis to the Phillies for Tyler Burch, and Shawn Armstrong to Tampa for cash considerations.

As Elias sees it, the reason for the lack of moves is because their players with the most trade appeal are actually building blocks. “We were very mindful that a lot of our best players that were in demand were players that are not pending free agents with the Orioles,” Elias said. “They’re players that are young and talented and we like and have future years with this club and project to be a part of this club when we hope to be a playoff contender.”

When asked specifically about John Means and Cedric Mullins, Elias said he was “pretty confident that we weren’t going to get very serious in talks with those players. We’re very, very impressed by what those guys are doing, and they’re here for a long time, and they play positions that are not easy to find guys to do what they do. It’s not a priority for us to look at those opportunities.”

Means will cross three years’ service time by the end of this season, setting him up for his first of three arbitration years. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season. Mullins on the other hand, has one extra year of control beyond that, slated to hit free agency in late 2025.

Getting back into contention within the next three to four years will be a challenge for the club, as they share a division with four very strong teams. Although Baltimore has a solid farm system, that doesn’t necessarily give them a leg up on their division mates. The Orioles came in seventh on Baseball America’s most recent organizational talent rankings. But two of the other AL East clubs, Tampa and Toronto, are ahead of them. And both of those clubs already have lots of young, controllable talent at the major league level. The Red Sox and Yankees have weaker systems on that list but are currently strong at the major league level and always have higher payrolls than Baltimore to attract and retain talent. Holding on to players like Means and Mullins also carries the risk that they may get hurt or not maintain their performance.

Elias did say that they were “pretty close” to trading away one of their relievers, but didn’t specify which one. Paul Fry and Tanner Scott are two lefties that seen their names surface in recent rumors, alongside righties Cole Sulser and Dillon Tate. All of those hurlers are controlled through at least 2024. And it seems in that the thinking with those arms was the same as with Means and Mullins, that it’s better to hold and try to build around those players before they reach free agency.

One player slated to reach free agency much sooner is Trey Mancini. But despite having just over a year of team control remaining, the idea of a Mancini trade seems unlikely for different reasons. Since missing the 2020 season dealing with colon cancer, Mancini has become a fan favorite in Baltimore and around the league. And trading him would certainly be a difficult sell to the Baltimore fans, who have had few things to feel good about in recent years. As Elias puts it, “I hope he’s here as long as possible and, ultimately, we’re going to take things as we come like baseball teams do in the major leagues and look at stuff and keep talking. He’s a very special part of this team, and he’s going to continue to be so, and we’re happy about that.”

Orioles Activate John Means

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The Orioles announced they’ve reinstated left-hander John Means from the 10-day injured list to start this evening’s game against the Rays. Outfielder Ryan McKenna was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk to clear active roster space.

Means has missed around six weeks after landing on the IL with a shoulder strain. That was an unfortunate development that halted what has been a breakout season for the 28-year-old. Through 71 innings, Means has worked to a sterling 2.28 ERA/3.80 SIERA. He’s missing bats at a career-best 25.7% rate and has continued to avoid free passes (4.9% walk percentage). He’s had plenty of success with all three of his offerings (fastball, slider and changeup) and racked up swinging strikes at a lofty 14% clip (against an 11.6% league average).

Along with that strong performance came some questions about Means’ long-term future. With the Orioles still rebuilding and not particularly close to contention, it’s not out of the question Baltimore could give some thought to moving Means for a haul of younger talent. There’s only ten days remaining until the trade deadline, though, so there’s not much time for Means to demonstrate to contenders he’s back to peak health and form.

That’s not to say teams won’t be in contact with O’s general manager Mike Elias over the next week-plus. There’d still surely be plenty of interest in Means if Baltimore were to make him available, particularly given the lack of other top-of-the-rotation arms expected to be on the trade block this summer. Still, there’s no urgency for the Orioles to move Means at this point, so other clubs can’t bank on his recent injury reducing the asking price. The O’s can keep Means in Baltimore via arbitration through the end of the 2024 season.

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