It’s no secret that the majors’ two Pennsylvania-based teams possess a couple of the most powerful first basemen in the game. In the Phillies’ corner, there’s Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the Pirates are fortunate enough to have Josh Bell manning the position. Both players are 27 years old and under club control for the next few seasons. But which of the two would you prefer on your team?
Let’s start with Hoskins, a 2014 fifth-round pick who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2017, when he only played in 50 games but still managed to wallop 18 home runs. Although Hoskins has come back to earth since then, he has still been more productive than your typical hitter. The right-handed slugger mashed 29 homers last year, and though his batting average was alarmingly low, his overall slash line (.226/.364/.454) placed him 10 percent above the average hitter by measure of OPS+ and 13 percent above by wRC+. Furthermore, Hoskins has been rather durable – he played in 153 games two years ago and 160 in 2019. He’s also under control for four more years, including one final pre-arb campaign (that’s if a season even happens in 2020).
Bell still has three years left before becoming a free agent – he’ll make a reasonable $4.8MM this season – and has been a similarly productive batter to Hoskins throughout his career. But the switch-hitting Bell, a 2011 second-rounder, truly came into his own last year – he slashed .277/.367/.569 (143 OPS+, 135 wRC+) and racked up 37 HRs over 613 trips to the plate. Also, it was the third straight year of at least 140-some games played for Bell, so he joins Hoskins as someone you can regularly count on to pencil into your lineup.
While Bell was undoubtedly the superior offensive producer a season ago, Hoskins has doubled his lifetime fWAR output over almost 400 fewer plate appearances (Hoskins is at 7.1 in 1,577 PA; Bell has put up 3.8 in 1,968 attempts). Notably, Hoskins has performed far better at first base, having accounted for minus-1 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.9 Ultimate Zone rating to Bell’s minus-31 DRS and minus-17 UZR. However, despite Bell’s defensive issues, many teams would gladly plug his big bat into their lineup. The same goes for Hoskins. For the sake of this exercise, though, you can only choose one (and remember to consider team control for the two Scott Boras clients). Who’s your pick?
(Poll link for app users)
dynamite drop in monty
My favorite Johnny cash song.
acarneglia
What?
DarkSide830
Bell by a mile – and im a Phillies fan
jimmyz
Switch hitter you can plug in the 3 hole in lineup everyday. Sign me up
PutPeteRoseInTheHall
yup
lowtalker1
Though bell hits for a better average
Hoskins is more valuable imo
But who cares
Let’s check back in two years
dynamite drop in monty
Is that Yeats?
Revbdubs
Thoreau. Observation and passivity.
MoRivera 1999
I was wondering so I went and checked. Nope. Not Haiku.
DarkSide830
No, Yates is the one your thinking of
MoRivera 1999
Yates, Keats, who knows?
neo
The answer to the greater question is Hemingway, for whom Josh Bell wins polls.
amsmith04
I’m taking Hoskins here. Better overall player with an extra year of control
nymetsking
plus, he’s versatile enough to play OF (joke, obviously).
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Hoskins is all but certainly Kevin Keirmaier compared to Bell playing on the grass.
Some yinzers still want to put him in the OF because he’d played there about 70 pounds ago.
He could play strong side linebacker for the Steelers but, sure, have him roam the PNC Park outfield. Sounds like a plan.
HartnellDown
Oh god, I’m having flashbacks
Eatdust666
Hoskins, but Bell is very good and pretty close offensively overall, though.
JustCheckingIn
Pretty close offensively? You know Bell had 120 OPS points above Hoskins last year right, same age? Both have elite on base skills so that’s a wash
Hoskins has the edge on defense, but bell smashes him offensively unless you think 2019 Struggles with a juiced ball is a blip.
2019 is a Pretty Bad year to have a down year to Then Justify projecting great offensively prowess in the future imo. I’d take Bell there pretty easily
johnrealtime
I’m guessing Eatdust666 is looking at their career stats or a 3 year average, which is fair when evaluating talent.
I’m kind of torn on this one, especially factoring in defense. Rhys has an exceptional ability to draw walks. I feel he is a good hitting coach away from being an absolute superstar, while I fear we may have seen the best of Bell last year. Rhys showed the power and so much while coming up through the minors while Josh has only shown real power during 2017 and 2019, the two juiced ball years. If he hadn’t had such a terrible 2018 in the power department I’d buy into him more, but it seems like he is the ultimate product of the juiced ball
pinkerton
Hoskins I would say. Yes, yes
acarneglia
I’ll take Bell
R.D.
Jeeez I didn’t realize bell had an iron glove, those defensive metrics are yikes.
Still I think he’s the better bet to continue producing, Hoskins overall decline last year scares me.
DarkSide830
exactly they’re trending in opposite directions and it scares me as a Phillies fan.
mlb1225
The only thing Hoskins did better than Bell last season was field to an average to above average level, and walk a bit more. Bell is awful defensively, but a .936 OPS, 135 wRC+, 37 home runs, 37 doubles, in the top 90th percentile of hard hit rate, 96th percentile in exit velo, and 91st percentile of wOBA, and even though Hoskins walks more, it’s not like Bell swings and misses at everything. He still had a 12.7 walk %.
Peart of the game
One problem I have with Bell is that he had 12 home runs in 2018, while Hoskins had 34.
Jeff Zanghi
I think Bell is overall a better hitter BUT I think Hoskins has the potential to mash 50 HR on any given year and I think Bell is more or less maxed out in the 30-35 range. Having said that Hoskins is probably also more prone to a potential season where he hits .200 with 25 HRs than Bell – so I’ve got to go with Bell despite that I think Hoskins probably has more raw power
philsphan1979
I don’t mean to sound biased here because I’m a Phillies fan, and to be very honest it’s actually a very close matchup here. Bell has the slight edge because he’s a switch hitter, but Hoskins possess more leadership. So that being said it’s a hard tie. Because I’m a Phillies fan, I am taking Hoskins. He’s much better than his numbers are telling you
User 355748524
For me, it depends on the state of the team, current goals (win now, tanking, etc.), and budget though there is likely more factors I’m failing to mention.
On paper though? Bell.
brucenewton
Bell’s getting better and the league figured out Hoskins.
Thomassnow27
Rhys’ low batting average has more to do with a rough second half.
.263/.401/.530 20 HRs 1st half
.180/.318/.361 9 HRs 2nd half
1st half is much closer to his 2018 season (.246/.354/.496 with 34 HRs)
You can thank bad management (Gabe Kapler) for his second half struggles
Brixton
U cant just blame everything on Kapler
thats it fort pitt
Well, Pirates won’t/can’t afford to extend Bell. Phillies have additional year oh Hoskins AND the ability to extend him. Bell seems like a slightly better player, but Hoskins is the choice.