The first round of the 2020 amateur draft begins on June 10, and the growing feeling is that the Tigers will take Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick. Torkelson comes into the draft on the heels of an outstanding college career, which Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill notes could have reached historic proportions had Torkelson’s 2020 campaign not been cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic. The young slugger had a shot at breaking the NCAA record for walks in a season, and Torkelson sat just two home runs away from setting a new Arizona State school record for career homers (a record held by longtime Braves third baseman Bob Horner). Though Torkelson will miss out on these individual accomplishments and a shot at being part of a potential national championship contender, his Arizona State tenure has already been the stuff of legend, especially considering that Torkelson came to the program on a relatively low profile after not being drafted by a Major League team when coming out of high school.
Some more on the draft…
- The NCAA’s decision to give an extra year of eligibility to spring sports will give at least some players extra signing leverage in this abbreviated five-round draft. As The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) writes, right-hander Cole Wilcox has the option of returning to the University of Georgia for a do-over of his sophomore year if doesn’t receive a signing bonus to his liking, which “some in the industry believe” is a “top-half-of-first-round” asking price. (So, in the neighborhood of $4MM, based on the recommended slot prices.) It isn’t out of the question that the hard-throwing Wilcox is selected within the top 15 anyway based on his strong track record at Georgia, though many prognosticators have the righty in the bottom half of the first round.
- Speaking of prognostication, let’s give into some mock draft action! The latest projections are up from The Athletic’s Keith Law (subscription required), Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and all have identical top threes: Torkelson to the Tigers, Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin to the Orioles with the second overall pick, and Texas A&M southpaw Asa Lacy to the Marlins third overall. Assuming Detroit does take Torkelson, the O’s are favored to select Martin or at least another position player — Collazo and Callis note that Baltimore could opt to take New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales, while Law has heard “rumblings” that Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad could be the pick if the Orioles wanted to spread around their draft pool money.
- All three mock drafts are well worth a read, as Law, Collazo, and Callis share some reports and rumors about which prospects could be on various teams’ radars, and what particular teams may or may not be targeting on their draft boards. For instance, the Royals (who pick fourth overall) seem to be leaning towards picking a position player this after focusing on adding pitchers in recent drafts, which could lead them to Gonzales or Florida high school outfielder Zac Veen. Callis has K.C. taking Gonzales while Collazo and Law have the Royals taking Veen, with Law adding that he has “heard they’re cool on Gonzales.” Then again, a pitcher might not be out of the question either for Kansas City, as Collazo writes “lately, we’ve also heard Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer linked to this pick.” As for Wilcox’s placement, Callis projects the Mets (19th overall), Law projects the Nationals (22nd), and Collazo projects the Yankees (28th).
what happened to Emerson Hancock? if he has a Singer-like drop someone will get lucky.
Hancock is a bit of a tease. After dropping out of the one-one talk, he’d been linked to the Royals and Jays in most mocks. Now, assuming the the top 3 are Torkelson, Martin, and Lacy (unless Boras… I mean, Torkelson or Martin ask for more than the Tigers’ and Orioles’ preference), the Royals would have the first crack at Hancock. This article says they will likely take a bat, and if they do, it’ll almost certainly be Gonzales or Veen. If it’s Gonzales, the Jays will likely take either Hancock or Veen. If it’s Veen, the Blue Jays might not want to take another infielder with Biggio and Bichette in the bigs already (and players like Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans waiting in the minors), so they’ll probably take Hancock. Of course, the Royals or Jays could both take a dark horse here, like Garrett Mitchell or Max Meyer, which shuffles the deck a bit more for the Mariners and Pirates picking next. Regardless, we won’t know for sure until draft day. Everything before is just speculation.
I will be somewhat surprised if the Jays take Hancock. To me, he seems like an a slight upgrade on Jeff Hoffman, a wasted #9 pick who was lightning against college hitters and can’t work at the MLB level. Meyer more likely if they take a pitcher, but don’t rule out a different outfield bat like Robert Hassell III, a Vandy commit, or Kjerstad. It’s going to depend mostly on who their scouts are excited about and second, who their analytic folks are excited about. And you’re dead-on right, this is all just speculation.
Kiley and Eric from fangraphs did an excellent job calling the picks on draft day last year. Eric has Seattle grabbing Hancock at 6, though Jerry has expressed interest in a fielder that plays up the middle with higher risk/reward.
Certainly a lot can change quickly. Things would get real interesting if players demand more than slot and it’s easy to see that happening.
I’m from NJ and have seen Seton Hall play a bunch. A sleeper could be Seton Halls athlete of the year 3B Casey Dana. A 6’4” solid body with plus pwr and has learned to move the ball to all fields. Lots of upside power potential to all fields, above avg speed and good defender. This is a quality corner inf with a good pedigree and older brother (LHP) drafted by SD. The best of the Dana brothers could be the youngest at 6’5” was a sophomore in HS this year and already has a FB 89-91. This guy can run, dunk a basketball, and hit LH – he’s still growing.
Happy Birthday to Casey Dana.
I keep seeing him with SEA #6 in many mocks. If there is a surprise in the top-5 I can’t see him past #10 with PIT, COL, LAA all interested.
Why no more likes?
Why did Singer drop anyway?
His spinny rate wasn’t very good.
A first baseman is going to go #1 overall? And the Tigers are going to take him with Miggy around for another 4 years?
You mean Might who’s currently at DH and CJ Cron is at 1st?
Yes they’re going to take a 1B overall who’s got a clear path to the big leagues.
1b taken first overall- Adrian Gonzalez and Harold Baines
You guys just don’t pay very close attention to the details. Tork has FAR from a “clear path to the big leagues.” He’s a Boar’s-ass client, and a Junior. He can demand the stars and if the Tigers don’t provide it, they’re screwed, he can just go back for his senior year.
But…. you probably don’t think that far, do you? No, especially not when you try to use A-Gone and another career DH in Baines as your exhibits A and B.
You think Torkelson will go back to school after being taken at #1 overall? What’s he going to do, hope to go at -1 next year? He can only drop from #1.. He will not go back to school.
Seniors have no bargaining power, and second, the draft next year is an unknown. He’ll sign for sure, perhaps below slot.
@bsmith
The Tigers will not have any problems signing him. They have a record of being able to work with Boras (Scherzer being the exception). He has a clear path to the bigs, as Miggy is a DH now, and Cron is a one year contract. I agree that Comerica requires speed for defense, but not at 1B. What the line up lacks is power, and that is what Tork provides. Given this year’s choices, Tork is the surest thing, at a position of need.
There is nothing more annoying on this site than someone insulting other commenters while questioning their understanding or knowledge.
Javia nails it below.
Correction….
Javia nails it above.
Wasn’t Baines drafted as an outfielder?
If he refuses to sign this year… Tigers can draft him again next year and have the number 2 pick also.
Miggy can’t play 1st anymore
By the time Tork is ready, MiggySmalls will be a league average DH, and Tork may be in left. Tork has enough athleticism to play corner OF, but his arm relegates him to LF.
Clearly you have not read up on Tork. He is a career DH. Period. But if you want to go down the pipedream route of denial like we did w/ Castellanos, and smack your head against the wall trying to play him in the field, go for it. I’m sure it’ll be different this time around, ya know, with our superior scouting and player development – we’ve been squeezing all sorts of blood out of the turnips we have for minor league bats (Greene aside.)
Torkelson will stick at 1B. His range may be a bit limited, but he fields the position well. Given the bat, it’ll be easy to live with him not getting to a few grounders a season.
There are no sure things when it comes to prospects, but his bat is as close as you get. The power is there. The hit tool is there. There’s also room for growth in the projections.
Just because he plays first, doesn’t mean you shy away from taking him first when he’s the best position player in the draft.
He isn’t the best position player in the draft if you want to go by BA’s rankings. Yak invoked them (along w/ Athletic) as the be-all, end-all authorities on this to burn me, but hilariously failed to mention/ignore that tiny detail that Martin was their #1 ranked prospect coming into 2020.
Tork just does not make any sense for the Tigers when compared to Martin, and the Tigers long-term needs overall.
The problem with Castellanos was that he wouldn’t play 1B.
“Was” being the keyword there. All things being equal, they’re always going to rank the guy who plays the premium position ahead of a non-premium position. Rankings change however based on how a player develops.
There are a number of elite infielders due to hit free agency over the next few offseasons. Not a stretch to think Detroit could start pulling out of their rebuild in a couple of years with Torkelson at 1B and addressing other positions via free agency. Mize, Manning, Skubal, and a number of other prospects should be ripe by then.
Goldschmidt was rated pretty poorly defensively when he was drafted too, and then he became a gold glove winner. 1st base defense is hard to project. If he has the right coaching, there’s no reason he can’t grow and get better at the position
As long as that coach isn’t Ron Washington, lol.
Clearly YOU haven’t read the scouting report…
“Defensively he’s a bit limited by his speed. With Team USA he played a little bit of left field, but for the most part he’s expected to be a first baseman moving forward. He’s a solid defender at first base and there’s no concern he can’t handle the spot.”
Totally glazed over the first thing you said – Miggy as a league average DH? Miggy hasn’t been as good as a league average DH in several years…. you’re strugglin’, champ!
You crap on my comments and fail to offer a counter. Champ.
The counter is obvious, and already been made – several times… Martin is the obvious best choice for our TIgers. I mean, you even cite BA in your “burn” on me, as an authority you’re going to rely on, yet neglect to realize that Martin was BA’s #1 prospect heading into this season?
I’m all in on Martin, man. Give me a complete player 7 days a week and twice on Sundays over “ZOMGZ he hits dingerz!-McGee. You want to get 1.1 value out of a 1B (career DH), he only has to produce at Bellinger-esque levels to justify it. No pressure, right?
He won’t stick at SS. His hit tool is 5 above Torkelson. Power lol. So it comes down to defensive position. Martin can maybe play cf… His “power” won’t play anywhere else as a 1.1.
You’ll have to forgive the half-wit commenters ‘splainin you about Miggy, and missing the forest for the trees. I think your point is the idiocy of a team that is so desperate for sure-thing long-term bats in this system taking a 1B that can’t play defense to save his life. Tork is destined to be a career DH, and that’s after achieving the near impossible of managing to maintain his effectiveness and power, knowing that if he doesn’t hit, he’s bagging groceries. Kid has NO speed whatsoever. Has hit like a beast w/ power and avg against a mountain of nobodies, that’s all well and good, but clearly not the choice for a team like the Tigers to take when they need guys that can actually play a position, hit for avg, have good speed and a little pop. This is a new landscape in the MLB, everyone and their brother can hit 30 bombs. There’s a handful of guys that don’t even have a contract right now that can hit 30 bombs a year, yet people seem to somehow think that sort of talent is worth a #1 overall pick. Austin is the guy they need to take, but knowing Avila and his ineptitude, he’ll be reading all the “expert” articles, which have a consensus towards Tork “cuz he hits so many dingers.” Pathetic.
The BA and Athletic articles beg to differ. But I’ll defer to “Bill Smith” on a free website.
You’re really that insufferable as a Tigers fan, that you want to continue to sabotage your own team? How heroic.
Martin has slid in drafts due to his ability to stay at short. Lacy is a LH pitcher that is already being pegged as having control issues. Tork is the best pick in a weak draft. Next year’s #1 is a consensus in Kumar Rocker.
So do you go sure thing in Tork this year? Or Swing for the fences and go Veen?
Austin Martin probably has the best hit tool in the class, but he doesn’t stand out in any other way. He’s got average speed and average power. He won’t be a bad player, I don’t think. On the flip side, in a stronger class, he’d probably fall in the 5ish range.
Above average defender, able to play multiple positions, strong BB:K, HAS SPEED, god forbid, hits for power and is developing more power, has actual baseball IQ and instincts by all accounts. A…. COMPLETE player. But I know, I know, “chicks dig the long ball”, so Tork is by default superior.
What ails the Tigers isn’t going to be remedied by an all power, nothing else player. They need contribution across the board, from all positions to turn that dumpster fire around. Greene is a good start, Tork will be a step in the wrong direction (that is if they manage to even sign him.)
So take a lesser hitter that can back up 5 positions defensively, over an above average power/contact 1B. Let’s just redraft Niko Goodrum!
We didn’t even draft Goodrum – how closely do you follow baseball?
And all of what you said before that is just wrong too, and you know it.
Look, I apologize for coming across as a jerk – but I just can’t stand seeing fellow Tiger fans going down the Castellanos road to disappointment again.
Ill just drop a link here that does a good job summarizing what would be the rebuttal to the nonsense you said about his defense, and about him being a lesser hitter. Ill give Tork the power nod of course, I’ve already stated that several times, I’m stubborn but not blind, lol. But Tork is not what makes sense for our team (which is precisely why Avila will draft him, but I digress.)
https://royalsfarmreport.com/2020/05/14/2020-draft-profile-austin-martin/
I know they didn’t draft goodrum, but that’s where Martin tops out. An If/OF prospect with no power. Can he hit .300? Maybe. Can he hit 20 HR? Doubtful. And he can’t provide defense at a premium poaition. I’d rather take a swing at Veen than Martin.
Bill, let me ask you this: at what position do you see Martin playing regularly?
His bat likely becomes more valuable if he can stick on short, I’ll give you that. Can he though? I feel like you keep insisting Torkelson is destined to be a DH because he’s not an elite defensive 1B. However, in building a case for Martin, you’re saying he’ll be/is an above average defender. That’s not entirely wrong, but it’s position dependant. A LOT of experts predict he comes off of short, and I think they’re correct. If he sticks at SS however, I think he’ll be an average ML defender- which is probably exactly what Tork will be.
I’m not saying Martin won’t be good. I just believe we’ll see more value out of a guy like Torkelson, who’ll anchor a batting order for a decade or more.
This is one of the strongest classes we’ve seen in a while and there is an argument that he’s the best overall prospect. But it shouldn’t be hard for anyone to see Torkelson going first or how he would fit in Detroit.
Agree, Martin is their guy even over Torks possibilities, they desperately need possional players with Avila’s mgmnt team record in development.
Man, you really hate Tork’s defense at 1B. You must’ve seen him play a whole bunch. I’ll take the under on 0.5 ASU games watched.
who says miggy is gonna be around for another 4 yrs? his contract will be around, I doubt he will
name of the day: Spencer torkelson
If Torkelson goes 1st, what’s to become of Herman Menderchuck?
Bad year to be a HS pitcher according to the mock drafts.
Interested in seeing if teams will take the chance.
Seattle will take a college player. That’s what Dipoto does.
I hope Hancock drops or its Gonzales. I don’t want Detmer
I could see Jerry taking Veen if Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, and Hancock are all off the board.
The Tigers are going to get this pick right it sounds like… I think Torkelson is going to have a heck of a career. With no minor leagues, if there’s a mlb season (which, sadly, seems highly doubtful at this point), he’d be able to leap straight to the show and he seems completely ready to make the jump. I see no good reason that wouldn’t happen.
Zero chance he “leap strait to the show” that is just nonsense. There is no reason to start his clock when the team is nowhere near contention. He gets a full season and a half in the minors and comes up when Greene does.
@4balls
With Mize, Manning, Skubal, Fulmer, Boyd, and Turnbull all likely to be available for the rotation in 2021, “nowhere near contention” is a phrase I disagree with. It’s easier to acquire bats in FA, than pitchers. It’s also possible to trade pitching for bats. They are closer than you think. I do agree, though, Tork will start in the minors.
Will that starting rotation be driving in runs too? Wait, sorry, driving in runs is overrated to the RBI is a bad stat crowd. The pitching looks great on-paper over the next 5 years or so. They need hitting.
Read my entire post. I agree they need hitting. With that pitching, they may not need a superstar at every position.
I know Torkelson and Martin are both Boras clients. I wonder if a team like Baltimore who is in trouble due to MASN and the contract of Boras client Chris Davis, might decide to take an easier to sign option and save for a “signability case” later on?
As an Orioles fan I hope they take Heston Kjerstad over Martin. I think he will have the better career.
If the Tigers don’t take Torkelson, I don’t know how the O’s could pass on him. Adley and Torkelson would anchor the heart of their order for years. I think you roll the dice, and settle for the pick next year if it goes south in negotiations.
You pose an interesting question though; and I can’t say it wouldn’t be worth at least considering with Martin.
The best career is seldom the top pick. Along with the power, Torkelson looks like he has the ability to take a walk, a very hard commodity to find in a young player. The Tigers cannot afford to miss on this pick, and he looks like he will be a solid player, who can bat in the middle of the order, soon. It would be nice to have an offense to go with Mize, Manning, Skubal, Boyd, and Fulmer. He probably won’t be the best career of the bunch, but Martin probably won’t be either. Tork is just the best choice for the Tigers.
He is the #1 consensus for a reason despite what that windbag Bill Smith thinks.
I don’t know, man. Bill Smith knows everything about Tiger baseball. Avila has been blowing up his DMs trying to get him to replace David Chadd. Luckily for Chris Ilitch, he gives all his expertise away here for free, and in that professionally condescending tone of front office upper management that we really need in times like this.
Unless you are drafting “Can’t Miss” like Griffey jr, it is often about the best fit, more then ability. No one felt Joe Mauer was the best player when he was drafted 1-1, but the Twins felt he was the best fit, and got themselves a probable Hall of Fame player in the process. When teams draft a Boras client, they have to figure they are not getting a player that will be spending his career with that team. In fact, I can only think of one player who spent 10 years (or more) in the Majors and spent his entire career with one team as well as being a Boras client: Bernie Williams. Torkelson and Martin are not in the Griffey jr category . Something to think about.
Interesting take, but I somewhat disagree that drafting for fit is the best strategy unless you’re on the very tail of a rebuild. Even then, I don’t know… Depends on what’s available, I guess.
How is Cole Wilcox eligible for the draft when he’s only a sophomore?
In theory, the Royals could totally devote their entire draft consisting of 6 picks on pitching just like they did with their top picks (minus Isbel) in the 2018 draft with Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Bubic, Bowlan, Cox and have a reserve of arms the likes of what’s rarely been accumulated and who’s arrival can be staggered.
And since only approximately 170-175 players will be drafted, there’s still many talented position players from 176-250 many of which are players who have high defense/speed tool-sets which Kansas City loves, that can easily be signed for only 20k.
This is a unique draft/international signing period & it will be very interesting in a few years to review & see how teams reacted to shape their organizations moving forward.
That wouldn’t be a bad strategy for them. In a few years, when their window opens, you sign a pair of boppers and roll.
It’ll be incredibly interesting to look back at this year’s draft, UDFA signing and IFA period 5 years from now.
I suspect that teams like the Royals that are treating their minor leaguers well right now will do well with UDFA’s and teams like the A’s that did not will not. I would also expect the teams that did not dump double digit players, and even more important, their higher paid personal like scouts to do well. Why? Those are the people who develop relationships with prospects, and treating them well makes it easier for UDFA’s to trust that a team will treat them right.
That’s an interesting thought on who would have a leg up signing the playes in the 20K club.
Hate to ask, but does anyone on here have a subscription to BA? Just wondering who they have the Padres taking at 8 in their latest mock draft. Thanks.
High School OFer Robert Hassell
Thank you. Hassell seems to be the “pick du jour” for the Padres. I like what I see/hear about his bat to ball skills, but nothing else really jumps out. If they do select him, I hope he signs for a little under slot, (as he would seem like a bit of an over draft), so they can grab someone who is falling with their comp pick.
From the beginning, this was going to be a “deep” draft, but not an especially impact one. You’ve got a lumbering, defensively inept 1B at the top (like there are so few of those around). A guy at #2 with excellent bat-to-ball skills and who plays several posistions though sadly not very well; a poor man’s Andrew Benetendi (not that AB is a “bad” player; he’s just not a Rd1Pick2 guy). And a “crafty LH pitcher whose control goes south whenever he tries to juice up his heater.
And you’ve got the issue of extra eligibility for those college juniors who want to wait a year.
Nicky G. is the impact player in the top 5, and in five years he’ll be the one we’re talking about. More than adequate a SS, likely Gold Glove at 2B, equal bat to ball of Martin, and a work ethic-game day skills set of Pedroia.
And he’ll be cheap (relatively), allowing a team like the O’s to invest in better players with later picks (and the post Round 5 free for all).
I know, you don’t pick 2B that high in the draft….I know, I know. But with Hayes in CF, Kid Catcher behind the plate, and Gonzo at 2B, you’ve got three members of a championship middle infield. Not a bad start.
Torkelson is a fairly safe pick because he rakes and takes (pitches). He has a great eye for the strike zone. He’s also a good athlete. He “could” become a future hall of famer or slightly above average, occasional All Star, at least very likely that he moves quickly through a system. That said, I would almost always trade the first pick for a known commodity.
You can’t trade the 1st pick in baseball
The Marlins have a dearth if pitching talent in the minors, it makes no sense for a team with so many promising arms, some in the majors and some in the upper minors, to pick another pitcher when there are holes all over the rest of the diamond
You do realize that dearth means “a scarcity or lack of something.”
Keith Law still can’t hide his anti-Orioles bias even after all these years. He’s the only person who has said anything about the Orioles potentially trying to draft on the cheap. No one else has brought up this Kjerstad fellow, just KLaw. That’s it, Keith! Get in a shot at O’s ownership even though Peter hasn’t been involved in two years because he’s nearly dead. It’s important to ignore reality when perception can get you another chance to show how little you think of the O’s. Of course, when they take Martin you’ll be able to say you knew it all along, etc. Just shut up, Keith. You and Rosenthal can take your anti-O’s bias and crawl back under your rocks.