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Austin Martin Shut Down With UCL Sprain

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Twins prospect Austin Martin has been shut down with a sprained UCL, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. It is currently unknown what Martin’s timetable for return looks like. That being said, UCL sprains are common precursors to Tommy John surgery. While that procedure is more serious for pitchers than position players, such a surgery would likely spell the end of Martin’s 2023 season if it were to be deemed necessary.

Martin, 24 later this month, was taken by the Blue Jays as the 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Upon being traded to the Twins as part of the Jose Berrios deal, he was a highly regarded prospect, nearly cracking the top 20 of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects list in 2021 and slashing an above average .270/.414/.382 during his first professional campaign. Since that time, though, Martin missed six weeks of the 2022 season with injury and struggled mightily when he was able to take the field, slashing just .241/.367/.315 in a repeat of the Double-A level last year, good for a below average wRC+ of just 89, though he did steal an impressive 34 bases in 90 Double-A games while being caught just 5 times.

As previously mentioned, the timetable for Martin’s return to action is currently unknown. Regardless of whether Martin’s ultimate prognosis is that severe or something less serious, though, the former top prospect has hit another frustrating roadblock on his path to the big leagues. Even a relatively short absence would force Martin to prove his health on top of returning to form offensively in order to get on the radar for a big league debut sometime this year. Martin is Rule 5 eligible this offseason, meaning the Twins will have to add him to the 40-man roster or risk him being selected by another club in the Rule 5 Draft this December.

As for Minnesota, their remarkable position player depth should allow them to weather this injury relatively painlessly. While it’s certainly unfortunate to potentially lose an upper-minors prospect who could be plugged into the infield or outfield as necessary, particularly with Royce Lewis and Gilberto Celestino already on the shelf, the Twins still figure to have Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and 2022 first round pick Brooks Lee starting the season in the upper levels of their minor league system, and possess a deep bench including Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Michael A. Taylor.

Central Notes: Ross, Cubs, Twins, Martin

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In a piece for The Chicago Tribune, Meghan Montemurro recaps David Ross’s first full season managing the Cubs. The turbulent season saw Ross’s Cubs cruise through the early months before a midseason collapse led to a July fire sale. The skipper notes that he was prepared for the club to eventually retool with younger players, but that even he was surprised by the exodus of Cubs veterans on July 31. Ross quipped “I don’t think in my mind I ever thought it was going to be one day,” referencing how the retooling effort was seemingly confined to a single day. The leaner club finished with a 71-91 record and a fourth place finish, a far cry from the team’s first place performance in 2020. Still, Ross relishes the chance to grow as a manager now that Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez likely won’t be holding down the fort with him. The manager’s open-mindedness, combined with his year one success, is part of why Montemurro reminds that Ross is likely to maintain control of the dugout for some time. Ross is guaranteed to be the Cubs manager through 2022, with a 2023 club option, but there is mutual interest in extending those terms. With some contention-minded moves already made, a David Ross extension would be another sign the club is looking to make the playoffs with a new core in place.

Some more from baseball’s central divisions…

  • The Cubs are ramping up their efforts to develop homegrown pitching reports Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The organization was hit with a number of pitching injuries in the minor leagues, with most of the team’s best pitching prospects sidelined at some point this year after last year’s cancelled minor league season. President Jed Hoyer is reluctant to attribute these injuries to increased workloads however, acknowledging that there are a number of ways the organization can help its players better stay on track. To that end, the Chicago organization has hired former MLB pitchers Craig Breslow, Daniel Moskos, and Danny Hultzen to further develop the game plans used by young pitchers as they come up through the system. Under Vice President of Pitching Breslow’s watch, the Cubs pipeline has already started showing improvement. Despite the swath of recent injuries, many of the players who were healthy enough to pitch this past season found improved velocity under the new pitching regime. More work will need to be done before any young player can be fast-tracked to the Majors, but the authors note that any homegrown Cub who breaks through to the big leagues as a pitching fixture will be the first to do so since Jeff Samardzija debuted in 2008.
  • Hopping to the AL Central, where the Twins are dealing with a rare prospect surplus on the heels of their Byron Buxton extension. Writing for The Athletic, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman discuss whether top shortstop/center field prospect Austin Martin can be flipped to acquire a pitcher that will help a Twins rotation short on experience. It would be a short stay in the Minnesota system for Martin, a top-30 prospect who was just acquired in July’s Jose Berrios deal, if he’s dealt. Hayes reasons that the Twins have a dire need for pitching, and speculates that acquiring Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle of the Reds, or Frankie Montas of the A’s would provide a more immediate benefit to a team looking to contend. Neither writer is convinced Martin should be traded, considering the two players ahead of him on the depth chart (Buxton in center field and top-30 prospect Royce Lewis at shortstop) are hardly locks to stay healthy or productive. Still, with the Twins surprising inactivity in the free agent pitching market, both writers agree a lot of work needs to be done to have the pitching staff match a strong position player group.

Twins’ President Derek Falvey Discusses Deadline Moves, 2022 Outlook

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey met with reporters last weekend to discuss the team’s activity leading up to the trade deadline (video clip available from KSTP-TV). Minnesota’s baseball ops head also offered some hints at the team’s plans for the upcoming offseason, unsurprisingly suggesting they’re eyeing a return to contention as soon as 2022.

“(This year) has not been what we wanted. But we still feel we have a lot of talent in the clubhouse for 2022, 2023 and beyond,” Falvey told reporters. Not coincidentally, the Twins generally acquired prospects at the higher levels of the minor leagues with a chance to contribute at the major league level in the near future. Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, acquired from the Rays for Nelson Cruz, are both at Triple-A. The players acquired from the Blue Jays for José Berríos — Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson — are both in Double-A, as is Alex Scherff, whom the Twins added from the Red Sox for Hansel Robles.

Moving Berríos for Martin and Woods-Richardson was obviously the Twins’ biggest deadline decision. Falvey indicated the club saw both players as among the top 50 prospects in the league, and he was particularly effusive in his praise of Martin, whom Minnesota viewed as one of the top two talents in the 2020 draft class. The 22-year-old split his time evenly between shortstop and center field in the Blue Jays’ system, and Falvey indicated Martin would continue to see action at both positions in his new organization.

While there’s certainly reason for excitement regarding the young players added to the system in recent weeks, the front office clearly needs to add immediate big league help this offseason if the Twins are to challenge the White Sox. That’s most apparent in terms of the starting rotation, which has lost Berríos, J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker from the season-opening group and could also see Michael Pineda depart in free agency this winter. Kenta Maeda will obviously be among the starting five next season, and young right-hander Bailey Ober has probably shown enough promise to have the inside track on a spot as well.

There’s very little clarity beyond those two. Falvey pointed to Randy Dobnak, who struggled early in the year and has been out since mid-June with a finger injury, as a potential internal option. Minnesota has been giving starts to Charlie Barnes and Griffin Jax of late, and it’s possible Ryan or Strotman get their first big league calls later this season. Someone from that group could pitch well enough down the stretch to earn a permanent spot, but there’s enough uncertainty overall that Falvey flatly acknowledged “we’re going to need to add to that” via trade or free agency this winter.

The Twins should have the financial resources to make a couple noteworthy additions on the pitching staff. The team has just $49.2MM in guaranteed commitments on the books for next season, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration raises for Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Luis Arraez will probably add somewhere in the $20MM range to that ledger, but that’d still leave quite a bit of breathing room relative to their approximate $125MM payroll for 2021.

The position player group looks mostly set. Core players like Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Arraez and the catching tandem of Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers are under team control, as are highly-touted young players like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff and top prospect Royce Lewis. (Miguel Sanó is under contract as well, although he’s amidst a second consecutive disappointing season, so it’s arguable the Twins should pursue a first base upgrade).

That lineup core still looks like a potentially productive one, although the Twins are now without their best hitter of the past few seasons after trading Cruz to the Rays. Before the trade, Cruz was quite vocal about his affinity for the Twins organization, and Falvey said the front office would “never rule anything out” regarding the possibility of making a run at the 41-year-old in free agency this winter.

Blue Jays Acquire Jose Berrios

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12:02pm: The Blue Jays have announced the trade.

11:31am: The Blue Jays and Twins have a deal in place sending right-hander Jose Berrios to Toronto, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that top pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson is part of the return. Infielder Austin Martin, the No. 5 overall pick from last summer’s draft, is also going to Minnesota, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Jose Berrios | Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Berrios, 27, gives the Blue  Jays perhaps the second-best pitcher on this summer’s trade market, trailing only Max Scherzer, who is expected to join the Dodgers later today. Unlike Scherzer, he’s controllable beyond the 2021 season, as he’s only in his second arbitration season. Berrios is earning $6.1MM in 2021 and will be due one more arbitration raise this winter before reaching free agency upon conclusion of the 2022 campaign.

Berrios will join Hyun Jin Ryu and the resurgent Robbie Ray atop the Toronto rotation, comprising what now looks to be a formidable trio. He’s in the midst of one of his finest seasons, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a career-best 25.7 percent strikeout rate, an excellent 6.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 43.6 percent ground-ball rate. He’s posted those numbers through 20 starts and a total of 121 1/3 frames, standing out as one of the dwindling number of pitchers in today’s game who averages six-plus frames per outing.

Of course, Berrios isn’t simply durable on a per-game basis. He’s been one of the game’s most durable starting pitchers overall, throughout the entirety of his career. He’s never been on the Major League injured list and is currently on pace for what would be his fourth straight season of a full slate of starts. He made 26 appearances back in 2017 — the final season he was optioned to the minors — and has since made 32 starts, 32 starts, 12 starts (a full workload in last year’s 60-game season) and 20 starts so far in 2020.

During that time, he’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 and has pitched to an overall 3.76 mark with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent walk rate. Berrios may not quite be a Cy Young-caliber, top-of-the-rotation ace, but he’s as consistent and durable as it comes for a second/third starter.

The Blue Jays paid a steep price to acquire a year and a half of that consistency. Martin, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, was viewed by many in the industry as the best all-around player in the draft class. It was a legitimate surprise when he slipped beyond the No. 2 overall pick and fell to the Jays with the fifth selection. He’s currently ranked as the No. 16 prospect in the game at MLB.com, No. 21 at Baseball America and No. 23 at FanGraphs.

Martin starred at Vanderbilt in college, hitting .368/.474/.532 in his college career. The Jays dropped him right into Double-A to begin 2021, his first professional season, and it hasn’t looked like he’s missed a beat. In 250 plate appearances, Martin has posted a .281/.424/.383 with a pair of homers, ten doubles, two triples and nine stolen bases. He’s walked at a hearty 14.8 percent clip against a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. That batting line is 32 percent better than league average in an immensely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment, by measure of wRC+.

The main question on Martin is simply one of where he’ll play. He’s split his time evenly between shortstop and center field in Double-A this season. At the time of the draft, some scouts questioned whether he could stick at shortstop in pro ball, but the Jays have been giving him that chance. Even if shortstop isn’t his ultimate home on the diamond, however, most scouting reports on the 22-year-old Martin agree that his athleticism will translate to third base, center field or second base. The general expectation surrounding Martin is that he’ll be an above-average regular regardless of where he settles in on the diamond.

Woods Richardson has had a rougher season as Martin’s teammate in Double-A, but he’s only 20 years old — nearly five years younger than the average age of his competitors at that level. He entered the season widely regarded as a top 100 prospect, and while he’s since dropped off Baseball America’s list following the draft, he still ranks 49th at FanGraphs and 68th at MLB.com.

The Jays initially acquired Woods Richardson from the Mets in the trade that send Marcus Stroman to Queens. He’s made 11 starts in New Hampshire this season and posted a grisly 5.76 ERA, although that number is inflated by a .359 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 58 percent strand rate. Woods-Richardson has walked too many hitters (12.8 percent) but also fanned a third of his opponents so far on the year. Woods Richardson is away from the club right now, pitching for Team USA in the Olympics (as is fellow newly acquired Twins pitching prospect Joe Ryan).

FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes that Woods Richardson works with both a four-seamer and a two-seamer, also praising the righty’s changeup and the shape of his curveball. MLB.com’s report praised Woods Richardson’s changeup as the best in Toronto’s system, and the general consensus on the right-hander is that if he can add a little velocity as he continues to fill out, he has the makings of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

It’s an impressive haul for the Twins, though the organization has to be disappointed that the season came to this. Minnesota entered the year as defending AL Central champs and hopeful contenders, but their season spiraled out of control early and has yet to recover. That’s prompted the front office to pivot to what certainly looks like it’ll be an accelerated retooling of the roster.

The Twins still have an impressive crop of controllable hitters, and the additions of Martin, Woods Richardson, Ryan and Drew Strotman in their first two trades of deadline season give them four upper-minors talents who could impact the club by 2022 (perhaps 2023, in Woods Richardson’s case). Parting with Berrios means bidding adieu to the best pitcher the organization has developed in more than a decade, but they’ll hope that the recent influx of talent quickly supplements their foundation of young hitters and produces another arm or two of Berrios’ caliber before long.

Blue Jays Add Austin Martin To Player Pool

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A day after signing the fifth overall selection of this year’s draft to a significantly over-slot deal, the Toronto Blue Jays have added him to their 60-man player pool, per TSN’s Scott Mitchell.

Austin Martin received the largest signing bonus of anyone not picked first overall yesterday, and he received more good news today. Martin will presumably head to Toronto for intake testing before joining the Blue Jays’ summer camp.

With third base vacated earlier today, it’s tempting to connect the dots and install Martin at the hot corner from day one. And while the Jays certainly hope the 3-year Vanderbilt star will be a quick riser – and his placement alongside Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette is easy to dream on – Martin is still highly unlikely to see the major leagues anytime soon. His role on the 60-man player pool is almost certainly just an opportunity to get acclimated to professional ball, meet some players and coaches from the organization, and to begin the development process.

The Jays initially put together a 58-man pool, but they made three additions to the list yesterday. Add Martin to that group and they would seem to have a 62-man pool. However, teams can exceed the limit for players on the disabled list after testing positive for COVID-19. The Jays had at least one player test positive, but they also put four players on the 10-day disabled list without a noted injury (Brandon Drury, Elvis Luciano, Hector Perez and Jonathan Davis). Anything beyond that would be pure speculation.

Blue Jays Agree To Terms With Austin Martin

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July 8: Martin has signed his deal and will be paid a $7,000,825 bonus, tweets MLB.com’s Jim Callis. That’s roughly $800K over slot and makes Martin the second-highest-paid player in this year’s draft — trailing only top overall pick Spencer Torkelson. An official announcement from the Jays should come in the near future.

July 3: The Blue Jays have reached a deal with first-round pick Austin Martin, reports Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae (Twitter link). The former Vanderbilt shortstop/third baseman will need to pass a physical before his deal with the club becomes official. Bonus details aren’t yet known, but Martin’s No. 5 overall draft slot is valued at $6.18MM.

Austin Martin | Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

Considered by some to be the best all-around player in this year’s draft, Martin went a slight bit later than was generally expected after the O’s cut a deal with No. 2 pick Keston Hjerstad, thus saving some pool space for harder signs further down the line. The Marlins and Royals opted for pitchers with the next two selections, suddenly leaving a player who at times was in the conversation at No. 1 overall for the Jays to scoop up at No. 5.

Martin doesn’t have the massive power that top pick Spencer Torkelson possesses, but he’s a left-side infielder or center field option, giving him more defensive value. And he’s still a high-end offensive prospect in his own right. MLB.com gives Martin a hearty 65-grade hit tool and 50-grade (solid-average) power, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gives him a 60 future hit tool and 55 power.

Martin’s natural hitting ability was on display for all to see throughout his NCAA career, as he posted video-game-esque numbers dating back to his freshman season. In all, his Commodores career comes to a close with a ridiculous .376/.479/.521 batting line. He also struck out in fewer than 10 percent of his plate appearances between his sophomore and junior seasons.

The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Martin as the best all-around prospect in this year’s draft “due to his combination of performance, athleticism and all-around quickness.” Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN all ranked him behind Torkelson only, while FanGraphs had him third behind Torkelson and eventual No. 4 pick Asa Lacy (a lefty out of Texas A&M).

There’s some debate as to Martin’s final position, but it’s not for lack of defensive aptitude. Rather, most scouts seem to think he could handle any of third base, second base or center field, with shortstop not entirely out of the question. Toronto hopes to have Bo Bichette installed there for years to come, of course, so perhaps one of the other spots on the field is likelier. Regardless, the consensus on Martin is that he possesses elite bat-to-ball skills with still-developing power, speed, raw athleticism and a broad range of potential defensive homes. For a Jays club that saw Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all graduate to the Majors this past year, with Nate Pearson sure to follow in 2020, Martin represents yet another potential core piece to bring the club back to prominence in the ever-competitive AL East.

 

Amateur Draft Notes: Torkelson, Wilcox, Mock Drafts

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The first round of the 2020 amateur draft begins on June 10, and the growing feeling is that the Tigers will take Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick.  Torkelson comes into the draft on the heels of an outstanding college career, which Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill notes could have reached historic proportions had Torkelson’s 2020 campaign not been cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic.  The young slugger had a shot at breaking the NCAA record for walks in a season, and Torkelson sat just two home runs away from setting a new Arizona State school record for career homers (a record held by longtime Braves third baseman Bob Horner).  Though Torkelson will miss out on these individual accomplishments and a shot at being part of a potential national championship contender, his Arizona State tenure has already been the stuff of legend, especially considering that Torkelson came to the program on a relatively low profile after not being drafted by a Major League team when coming out of high school.

Some more on the draft…

  • The NCAA’s decision to give an extra year of eligibility to spring sports will give at least some players extra signing leverage in this abbreviated five-round draft.  As The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) writes, right-hander Cole Wilcox has the option of returning to the University of Georgia for a do-over of his sophomore year if doesn’t receive a signing bonus to his liking, which “some in the industry believe” is a “top-half-of-first-round” asking price.  (So, in the neighborhood of $4MM, based on the recommended slot prices.)  It isn’t out of the question that the hard-throwing Wilcox is selected within the top 15 anyway based on his strong track record at Georgia, though many prognosticators have the righty in the bottom half of the first round.
  • Speaking of prognostication, let’s give into some mock draft action!  The latest projections are up from The Athletic’s Keith Law (subscription required), Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and all have identical top threes: Torkelson to the Tigers, Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin to the Orioles with the second overall pick, and Texas A&M southpaw Asa Lacy to the Marlins third overall.  Assuming Detroit does take Torkelson, the O’s are favored to select Martin or at least another position player — Collazo and Callis note that Baltimore could opt to take New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales, while Law has heard “rumblings” that Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad could be the pick if the Orioles wanted to spread around their draft pool money.
  • All three mock drafts are well worth a read, as Law, Collazo, and Callis share some reports and rumors about which prospects could be on various teams’ radars, and what particular teams may or may not be targeting on their draft boards.  For instance, the Royals (who pick fourth overall) seem to be leaning towards picking a position player this after focusing on adding pitchers in recent drafts, which could lead them to Gonzales or Florida high school outfielder Zac Veen.  Callis has K.C. taking Gonzales while Collazo and Law have the Royals taking Veen, with Law adding that he has “heard they’re cool on Gonzales.”  Then again, a pitcher might not be out of the question either for Kansas City, as Collazo writes “lately, we’ve also heard Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer linked to this pick.”  As for Wilcox’s placement, Callis projects the Mets (19th overall), Law projects the Nationals (22nd), and Collazo projects the Yankees (28th).
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