If we’re lucky enough to see a 2020 Major League Baseball season, it could prove to be the year the Reds finally escape from a long-running stint toward the bottom of the National League Central. Not only did the Reds have an aggressive offseason, as MLBTR’s TC Zencka outlined, but they feature one of the game’s most promising rotations on paper. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and free-agent pickup Wade Miley comprise a formidable starting five. The problem for the Reds is that they may never see that rotation in action if the coronavirus leads to a canceled season. Even if that group does work together this year, there’s a decent chance that neither Bauer nor DeSclafani will be part of the team beyond then.
Bauer may be the No. 1 starter on a market that won’t have a Gerrit Cole or a Stephen Strasburg type. Granted, Bauer’s only two years removed from performing like an elite pitcher with the Indians. Last season wasn’t nearly as successful, though, as Bauer had immense difficulty keeping runs off the board after the Reds acquired him from their in-state rivals in July. Bauer has pitched to a horrid 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings in their uniform so far, but the Reds are no doubt expecting a rebound in 2020. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have kept the 29-year-old strikeout artist around on a $17.5MM salary.
DeSclafani won’t cost the Reds nearly as much this year (just under $6MM), but the 30-year-old gave the Reds better numbers than Bauer in 2019. Returning from two injury-affected seasons, DeSclafani logged a 3.89 ERA/4.43 FIP with 9.02 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 166 2/3 innings. Even if there’s no season, then, he should be able to find a decent payday should he join Bauer on the open market.
The Reds will definitely take a hit if they lose both Bauer and DeSclafani, though the good news is that Castillo, Gray and Miley should still make for a solid foundation a year from now. What would they do about the other two spots, though? Well, the Reds do have a slew of pitchers among their highest-graded prospects – MLB.com has six pitchers in the team’s top 15, including No. 1-ranked Nick Lodolo – but it remains to be seen how many will be able to contribute in the near term. And perhaps someone like former top prospect Jose De Leon, whom the Reds traded for in November, could force his way into the mix. There’s also Tyler Mahle, who was a standout farmhand in his own right not that long ago, though his production was less than stellar during a 25-start season in 2019 (5.14 ERA/4.66 in 129 2/3 innings).
If the Reds aren’t sold on their in-house options for next season, there are always the trade and free-agency routes. Notably, the Reds didn’t draft a single member of their current rotation – they either a swung a deal to land them or signed them. So, you know president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall aren’t shy about looking elsewhere, and they further proved it this past offseason by signing Miley, Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Pedro Strop to deals worth a combined $165MM-plus. Based on that level of spending, you’d think the Reds would do their best to retain Bauer and DeSclafani. If not, they could try for any number of free agents (Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jose Quintana, Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton are also on track to become available) and/or make a trade. It’s tough to speculate so far in advance as to who may wind up on the block, but Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco (Indians), Jon Gray (Rockies) and Chris Archer (Pirates) are a few of the starters who come to mind.
COVID-19 is negatively affecting every team, but Cincinnati might be near the top. It has built what looks like a respectable team as a whole and a capable starting staff, but there’s a chance it won’t get to see its present roster in action. And it’s going to sting even worse if the Reds lose Bauer after giving up a well-regarded prospect in outfielder Taylor Trammell for him last summer. The Reds will likely issue Bauer a qualifying offer next winter, which would entitle them to some compensation if he departs, but that wasn’t the goal when they acquired him. Rather, the hope is that Bauer and DeSclafani will help form an easily above-average rotation in 2020 and end the club’s six-year playoff drought.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Castillo to Yankees for Andujar,Frazier, Garcia, others. Make it happen Cashman
Cinci has too many OFers and a better 3B already
What is Castillo’s contract situation?
Bauer could be moved if the Reds find themselves out if we have a season.
Would be smart for the Reds to get something in return.
Don’t know where Castillo is at but unless he is entering his final year before FA I don’t see it
Unless a team wants to give them a truckload.
I think Castillo is pre arb
Andujar, Frazier and Garcia are a Yankee fan’s answer for a package for everyone’s superstar. Two DH’s and a 5-9 starting pitcher. They also don’t look at the needs of other teams when proposing their trades. The Reds for example have Suarez at 3B and Votto at 1B with a loaded and crowded outfield. Why do they need Andujar and Frazier? The answer is those players do not meet the Red’s needs.
Dont forget Florial !!
Yankees are great at pumping up these guys juuuussssst in case they need to hit the open market
They’ve made some good trades for minor leaguers but the drafting/farm has always been a little overated imo
Just imagine the idea that Cincinnati actually wants to compete. Not possible, right? Of COURSE Cincinnati wants to trade Castillo!!!!!
Lol
Good trade for Yankees… Reds would be morons to consider it
No other fringy players or prospects you want to throw in? For one of the best players in BB?
When Moose is playing 2nd and Castellanos is in the outfield you aren’t winning any division. I like both players but it isn’t happening. The Reds are one of those teams that make a million moves and are the headline of the winter but just doesn’t work with the players acquired. See San Diego 3-4 years ago. One thing in the Reds favor is President Dick Williams isn’t clueless like Preller in SD is. How Preller still has a job is baffling.
Agreed.
Don’t like their direction right now.
Philadelphia from last year is another example.
Patience.
Baseball is a business
We look at moves more from a baseball POV than from a business POV.
At the end of the day most teams #1 goal is to turn a huge profit.
At times teams look to energize a fanbase. But not all the time does it help the product on the field
Gotta build your core and then supplement it with free agent signings and trades. Look at any World Series champion and you’ll see a group of crucial players that either came up in that team’s system or were acquired early in their careers.
Sure, teams like the 2009 Yankees can add an All-Star first baseman, southpaw ace, and good veteran to the team that pushes them over the edge, but they still had Jeter, Hughes, Cano, Posada, Rivera, Gardner, etc. on the team.
Trying to reverse engineer a championship rarely works out because the money/prospects/draft picks you give up means you better hit on every move you make. As we see with Trout in Los Angeles, one or even a few good players can’t carry the load.
You need a strong 40-man roster to compete over the 162 and beyond. Most proven and efficient way is to acquire and develop youth. We’ll see what happens in Cincinnati.
Reds have a core that can take a serious step forward in senzel winker garrett; established in suarez lorenzen iglesias disco Castillo and in ready to impact minor leaguers in lodolo Stephenson. That’s a decent core.
Reds goal was to acquire a league leading staff and they done that. Then they added a ton of quality bats.Y’all live in a dream world where defense matters. Today’s baseball is a power league. You need good pitching and a slew of guys that hit it over the fence.
They could use Lorenzen out of the rotation again.
I don’t think Lorenzen could give you more than one inning. He’s a max effort pitcher and the Reds have a ton of them.
This analysis overlooks Tyler Mahle. He seems pretty likely to get first dibs at filling one of those spots, assuming he has a respectable showing this season. (If there is one. If there isn’t he seems likely to slide right in.)
You’re right. I just added him to the piece. Thanks for catching that.
Lodolo is one of those guys who need little to no grooming in minors. I like Mahle; he’s a great opener candidate. Let him come in and rip it for 2-3 innings and then bring in Miley. That said- if reds are contending and a starter goes down- look to lodolo getting the nod over mahle. He’s a better pitcher today and reds don’t care much about service time
I like that idea. Going righty/lefty with the opener can give some line-ups problems.
I’ll be a bit of a contrarian about length of contract versus AAV. If Bauer signed his one year deal and then tore his ACL in spring training, then the team that signed him would get nothing from him. If he were to sign a 3 year deal and have the same thing happen, there’s the possibility that he could mostly earn his money the other 2 years. So there shouldn’t be too much of a difference–in my opinion.
If the Yankees want Castillo better offer Gleyber…..we don’t want your table scraps you must be huffing glue in your medical mask….
really dude gleyber? sounds like you are the one sniffing glue.
It’s a lot closer than the trade the original poster posited. Were you as critical of that trade?
Castillo has high value.
You are getting a great pitcher who is cheap.
On the trade Market he has more value than Gerrit Cole or Clayton Kershaw IMO
According to Baseball Trade Values here are the players’ values
Andujar, Frazier, Garcia, Florial (I added him for fun) – 69.7
Castillo – 107.5 Torres – 119.5
So you can see a Torres Castillo trade makes more sense than the
Castillo vs. spare parts package. With that said, the Reds are not trading Castillo and the Yankees are not trading Torres.
As a Reds fan, the absolute last player I would ever want to see in Cincinnati, is the incredibly overrated Chris Archer…
No joke
Not only can he not pitch, he’s worthless in a fight..
lol
I don’t want to trade Castillo either but the ridiculous of the original trade proposal is what I am getting at. If Cashman calls Dick Williams that should be the only player that should be considered for Castillo
The Yankees could offer Torres and the answer is still no. Plain and simple no deals with the Yankees anymore. That’s why they overpaid for Cole. The Yankees main problem is they can’t develop their own starting pitching.
Imagine that. Teams not wanting to trade with the Yankees when they are willing to offer DHs, backups and declining prospects for stars. What the hell is wrong with everybody right?
LoL so very true. That’s why I said there main flaw is that they can’t develop their own starting pitchers. Money can’t guarantee a championship without building from within as well. The Yankees of the 90’s still were able to get Clemens, Cone, Wells, etc for mediocre prospects.
The Padres hired the Yankees former pitching coach Larry Rothschild. They already had one of, if not the best pitching coach in the business with Darren Balsley. Yankees should try to hire him. He is a miracle worker.
I’m not sure why Rothchild still finds work. He’s done nothing to help the Yankees. If he’s so great how come he didn’t see Sevy tip his pitches while watching game film.
Cracks me up when the writers always throw in the Taylor Trammell top prospect talk with that trade. I guess it is just a talking point regardless of its accuracy. Wake me up when this kid even earns the right to be on a AAA roster. He hit .230 last season in AA ball with mediocre at best power. He hasn’t hit over .300 since his first farm season in Billings.