The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series. After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year. The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.
White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event. Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner. That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox. The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.
Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal. While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award. That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.
Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater
Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn. Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.
Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago. On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain. He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.
The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season. But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect. Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.
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Trade outlook should be trade the team to another city. Why do you need two team in a city? Sports should bring a city together, not divide them. In every city we have two teams we have the one storied team and the unsuccessful other team that shouldn’t even be playing there. But I get it financially speaking. I’m an idealist too often.
9 million people in Chicagoland people is why. Both NYC teams have the same number of wins this season. Its not a city that makes the difference in competing, its the owner. The White Sox need a new ownership group as did the Mets before Cohen. So do the Angels.
No doubt it’s the ownerships.Agreed.
I know it was probably a pointless post I just meant ideally I think those less iconic teams would be moved so the whole city could be invested in the same team. But it’s not like those teams aren’t franchises that have been around a long time and had interesting periods.
I definitely agree with the first part of the first sentence. My guess is you are not from Chicago so you have no idea of the fan dynamics here. The White Sox are a 125+ year old charter MLB franchise with a deep and very loyal fan base. They may not go en masse when the team is bad but they will come out for a winner. In 2006, they drew nearly 3 million fans. And last year and this year’s attendance is actually excellent given the product on the field.
If the current or upcoming ownership is dumb enough to move them and the MLB is short-sighted enough to allow this, and there’s no indication that such is the case, then Sox fans will not become “invested” in the Cubs. They will be furious and hurt and probably tune the MLB out altogether for the most part.
I’m really curious – why do you find the idea of two teams in Chicago to be offensive? I assume this is the case because there’s no indication they are actually going to move other than knee-jerk “Nashville” speculation from like minded people.. Are you a conservative who dislikes Chicago? Not trying to put you on the spot, I’m genuinely curious.
It had nothing to do with it being in Chicago or the possibility of “being conservative”. I agree they have a rich history. I merely meant as an ideal I don’t like the two team dynamic a lot (tho there are interesting dynamics to it). Obviously a generation of fans (at least) would be upset (fans in another area would be happy getting a team tho). They just moved the A’s. As I said I’m being very idealist. I don’t know that I would really want them to move (or the Angels or Mets). It’s more along the lines of ideally I think there should only ever have been one team in those cities. It’s particularly unfair in regard to the Sox to expect them to move. The Cubs are really not much better historically (in terms of winning WS). Both had long droughts. One part of it also is living in the south traveling to (say Nashville or the Carolinas) and seeing all the fans of (mostly the Braves) who could only go to a game via a long trip while other cities are sporting multiple teams. And seeing how the entire region loves the Braves so much it shows me how people really connect over one team. It brings them all together. I stress that the post was based on a quick impulse at a moment of boredom while in 90° heat waiting for someone for an hour in my car. So it is potentially not fully based on a moment of reason.
They haven’t moved the A’s yet. The “groundbreaking” was a fake shovel photo op inside of a building. At this point the only work that has been done at the site has been removing rubble from tearing down and tearing up the Tropicana Resort.
These comments ignorant of reality on several levels and I understand now why the prior commenter asked if you’re conservative, this thought process reeks of “land matters more then people” which is that ideology. Are you aware that NY had three teams and the NL fans hated the Yankees so much that when the two NL teams move out west they created another team, aka the Mets? Moving these teams out of these cities will not make fans in those cities support the other team. Additionally there are multiple teams in these cities because they have the market size/population to support multiple teams, there are not even enough additional large enough markets to support moving all the teams you suggested. Additionally the Angles and the As were not even in the same cities as the Dodgers and the Giants so those examples do not even fit your own flawed thought process.
Did Boston not have two teams and actually change their name to the original name of the other team (which ultimately became the Boston Braves)? I know this was an odd circumstance because eventually the Braves became terrible and didn’t draw fans. But they sure love the AL Red Stockings today. It probably takes a generation obviously. But I imagine interest in the White Sox would be pretty low right now. But again I am speaking ideally that I don’t think it’s necessary to have two teams. IDC if there are more people. They can all watch one team. There is plenty of stuff to do in the Bay area, for instance (including a nearby baseball park in SF). There is less to be engaged in in many other cities. And again that’s why I said I’m just being an idealist (because it’s not financially viable) and said what you did about the market. And I wasn’t saying the As and Angels play in the same city (my point is fans can travel to LA or San Fran). I will also add that I am not usually 100% for things I post. I throw out ideas/points and simultaneously question them and don’t fully support them. Devil’s advocate is how my mind works. To make this clearer I should change my name to it
The fact that I have certain ideas towards somethings implies many others likely do as well. I throw this idea about the White Sox into the crucible of debate and see what becomes of the conversation. If I turn out to be ignorant there is no shame in that (Plato has Socrates stating the first sign of wisdom is an admission of ignorance). I have little investment in whether the idea “stands” or not. It is merely a topic thrown out there. I say this to say I’m not highly emotionally or intellectually adamant about what I post. I know many are.
One of the best reply’s of the year.Spot on for sure!!
Rishi: Do you really think that, if the Sox moved out of Chicago, as you have implied, that Sox fans would cheer for the cubs? My gag reflex kicked in at they very thought.
My guess is Rishi is not from Chicago, as his comments show profound ignorance of the fan dynamics and history here. The two opposing fan bases create more energy around baseball, not less. It would be an absolute tragedy if they left. Few Chicagoans, even Cubs’ fans, want this. I think this is mostly coming from conservatives from other states who hate Chicago for political reasons.
Well eventually they would. The youth would hop on quicker but it’d take a long time obviously. Not entirely serious in the sense of “let’s get it done”. Just the way I think it would be if everything had come to be differently.
If the White Sox moved, I would stop watching baseball entirely.
mohoney: Well said.
In fairness I would certainly feel the same way if I were a fan (tho I have always liked them a bit-grew up when there were some really cool White Sox teams).Honestly I like the White Sox more than the Cubs. But I’m from ATL. I’m not hating on the Sox. They are a really old franchise with lots of history.
Can the White Sox sign Adrian Houser to a two year contract?
They can but they should sell high. If they want to give him a 2 year deal in the offseason, they can do it then.
Sox just don’t outbid anybody. Get it done now!!
Why?
I would sell while you can, since Sterns took over the Mets Houser is one of the only pitchers that the Mets pitching lab failed to turn around and then saw go on to be more successful else where, that should give you considerable pause and make you think seriously about selling high.
I could see the Rangers trading John Gray, Adolis Garcia and Justin Fiscue to the Sox for a relief pitcher, Roberts and the cash to cover Roberts rest of the year.
The White Sox say no immediately. Why would they want those guys?
lol “could see.” Why would the Sox do that?
This is a classic “take my garbage” trade proposal only a fan would make.
There’s no prospects in that deal for the White Sox. You literally have the WS taking on salary AND giving salary relief, while trading value (a relief pitcher). The rangers would have to give up some young international talent, and that would make the deal an even more terrible idea.
The white Sox have nothing of value (on field or good contract) to trade to any contending team, without sending a nice prospect in the deal to get someone to take on these bum players and there contracts.
Tauchman, Wilson for bullpen, Houser, Taylor for def/pinch run are useful if they stay healthy at low salary…..contenders pick up these sort of ancillary players every year even though it’s not ones that warrant notable prospects.
But there’s the ‘of value’s argument. Houser and Wilson might fetch a half-decent prospect, but nobody worth getting excited over. Tauchman was having a fair season when he got hurt; if he picks up where he left off, it’ll be about the same return as Houser. Taylor won’t bring back much more than a middle reliever prospect. The cupboard is bare, aside from some of the promising young pitchers they’re expected to keep.
The Sox will get some lottery tickets in exchange to lose a bunch of competitive guys on the roster, and making it look like another 120+ losses are more and more likely. The Mummy craves that big chance at the #1 overall in next years draft….
Agreed. What they should do is try and buy prospects from teams in exchange for their bad contracts, or pay a lot of salary for Benintendi/Robert and trade them. Padres and Phillies have already spent a ton, sure they’d take one of these guys if all they had to pay was 3M.
This is what many of the staff at MLBTRs suggests all the time, and while I think an owner like Steve Cohen might make this kinda move the White Sox’s owner has been proven to be cheap year after year. I doubt we see that change this time
Oh now a tigers fan is flexxing…gotta love it
I really think Sox are close to turning things around! Like to see Robert’s get a chance with another team! A trade would give him a start over chance! Really like Taylor in Center for moment! Catchers great and infield good! Lots of energy! Not sure what they need but some confidence! Giants sure found out they are real! Let’s see how they do in LA!!
Offense. They need offense. Pitching is mediocre, but full of young guys whom we can reasonably expect to improve a little, with more pitching talent in the minors. Very little on offense, though, either majors or minors. Teel, Quero, and Meidroth have been decent, but not amazing, and Braden Montgomery is about the only offensive talent in the minors who looks to be a quality major leaguer.
I’ll agree they’re playing harder this year, so it seems Venable’s doing an ok job, but they need a lot more bats.
SP has been fine this season, bullpen has been spotty as best.
Bullpen started off terrible, but at least certain guys have become more reliable. Still bad, but could be worse. At least they’re not on pace for another blown saves record.
Aren’t any big bats available
Vargas is on a 3.5 win pace and under control through 2029. Thats a good trade.
They really dont have much left. They can get perhaps some lottery ticket prospects but mostly just save some money.
Vargas: The guy is hitting like .230. All the talk about how he changed his swing on April 23 and has been on a roll ever since is misquided, to say the least. They’ve been stockpiling prospects for a while now, and some are starting to show upside at the MLB level. Vargas is not one of them.
Colson Montgomery has been terrific lately. He might be up next homestand.
It’s one good series. After a year and a half of being awful. Let him do this for another month and I might agree, but even then, he’s been hitting his kind of pitches better rather than adjusting to have fewer weaknesses. I think major league pitchers would figure him out and expose him like they are with Robert.
The White Sox have no chance of competing before 2028 so if any impending FA is still on the team August 1st, Getz did something wrong. If anyone that doesn’t have 2 or more years of control is on the team August 1st, he did something wrong. Benintendi should be traded too. Anyone that is not tied down should get shipped out.
Right now the White Sox have the 2nd worst record in baseball and it doesn’t appear that 2026 will be much better regardless of what they do because they don’t have an experience core to carry them. So in construction terms, “strip it down to the studs and rebuild”. In their case it might be more like tear it down to the foundation and build it new from scratch because there is not a single stud in their rotation or starting lineup.
This isn’t true and the best scenario for them to compete is 2027.
OK. I’ll bite. Who on the White Sox including prospects do you expect to be league average or better in 2027?
On the position player side, outside of Miguel Vargas and the small 47 AB sample size of Kyle Teel, there is no one that is average or better now that will still be around then. Meidroth might improve to be average by 2027. That just leaves 6 or 7 other spots in the lineup below average.
On the pitching side the only one that is likely to be better than average is Shane Smith. Houser is 30 years old and considering his FIP and peripherals Martin’s ERA is an aberration.
As for prospects, other than Teel there isn’t much. Noah Schultz got absolutely spanked in AAA. Colson Montgomery is sucking wind in AAA. Grant Taylor has shown he has legitimate stuff and might turn out to be a good reliever. I really like him. Iriarte walked more than 1 per inning in relief in the majors and is nearly as bad in the minors walking 20 in 28 innings. That is all she wrote for potential impact prospects that are close to the majors. One guy that can help in the pen and a catcher that is already in the majors, Maybe Hagen Smith is in Chicago by then. I think he will be the real deal. That would mean the White Sox would have 2 decent starting pitchers, 2 decent guys in the pen, and 2-3 above average position players in 2027.
White Sox need to do some serious wheeling and dealing now if they expect to contend for even a WC in 2027. I think that if everything goes right that 2028 might be the season that they start thinking about playing up to .500.
I have more faith in Schultz rediscovering his command than you seem to. You didn’t mention Braden Montgomery, either. He’s at least a year away, but has loads of potential. I feel Quero can be at least average. And Meidroth has cooled off, but is still on pace for a 2.8bWAR/162. That’s well into starter territory and pretty good for a rookie. He projects to be above average, provided he can make a few adjustments.
Braden Montgomery will count as Wsox development bc he didn’t play a game in the Red Sox, just because a player isn’t homegrown doesn’t mean the Wsox should be disqualified for developing a player. Dylan Cease and Edgar Quero are good examples of this.
Braden Montgomery is in A+ ball. He won’t be in the majors early enough in 2027 to make a difference.
Meidroth has a 91 OPS+ which is below average and is on pace for 1.8-1.9 WAR. I think he will improve with time to be an average or above player which is why I mentioned him as being one of the 2 or possibly 3 guys that could be above average by 2027. He is not the problem, the other 6-7 holes in the lineup are the problem with them being a contending or even a winning team in 2027.
Braden Montgomery is in the Sally League right now and he will not be a contributor for enough of the 2027 season to make a difference even if he makes it to Chicago by then.
I may have missed it. Have you answered my question as to HOW the White Sox will contend in 2027?
Quero may eventually be an average hitter even though he has an 80 OPS+ right now. His AA and AAA numbers were 35% above average. He does not have the skills to be an average or even close to average defensive catcher. He seems to have regressed behind the plate. I think his ceiling is somewhere around a 1.0-1.2 WAR as a catcher because his defense is so bad.
Meidroth has been fine this season he’s currently in a slump at the moment. You forgot Quero/Teel, Vargas and Sosa for offense and 1B/DH is a revolving door. They could always find cheap bats in FA as well for short term holes. The only holes that I see is the entire OF.
Above average to competent SP are the main reasons why rapid turnarounds exist in recent memory. It no longer takes 5 years to rebuild a baseball team, no team should ever have to endure what the Astros went through.
Didn’t forget them at all. I mentioned them. Read my comment,
Sosa? Poor fielding 3B and meh fielding 1B with a 77 career OPS+ and only 95 OPS+ is NOT below average?
You STILL haven’t answered my question. HOW will a White Sox team with 6-7 holes in the lineup and only 2 decent starting pitchers contend in 2027?
The White Sox have 2 that might be average to competent SP by OD 2027.
The White Sox have 6-7 holes in their lineup with no one coming by OD 2027. That is a huge problem. Just ask the Pirates who have much better starting pitching and good depth in their rotation as well.
Web, your comments lay out really well the sad state of affairs on the South Side. As an Angels fan I really appreciate how much it hurts to know that even a year away your team has no shot at contending. Right now most of us are doing cartwheels of happiness that the Angels are .500 right now. The White Sox don’t even have that to look forward to for several more years. Be easy on them.
Reading through this thread, Web tore down the idea that the White Sox had any chance of contending by 2027 pretty thoroughly. If you have a counter argument, present it. I don’t think there is any way to show how they can contend in 2027 unless it involves signing 8 or 9 top of the heap free agents and we all know that won’t happen. The team just has far too many holes to fill from within that fast.
It pretty much is down to the studs. AB and Robert have almost no value unless the Sox eat almost all of their deals (even then, the value is limited in Robert’s case). Houser and Tauchman could bring back an ok prospect, but not much. Sox simply don’t have a player with even half as much value as Crochet, at least, not anyone they’re expected to trade. This is nearly as restocked as they get from trades. I agree with your first paragraph, but it seems like you’re expecting more than they’ll get. You have to give value to get value, and the Sox just have no one valuable to give.
The white Sox and cubs should pull off more trades to help each other out more
I’ve never really understood why there aren’t more intra-division or rivalry trades. In rare prospect for prospect or established player for established player deals, I get it, but when one team is contending and the other is rebuilding, it seems like it shouldn’t matter. By the time the established player’s deal is up, the rebuilding team won’t be contending anyway, and the competing team wants to win now, not when its top prospect is ready. Unless you’re one of the wealthy titans (Yankees, Dodgers) or the perennially awful Pirates, baseball is cyclical. Teams contend for a while, then suck for a while. A GM should always be looking how to maximize their team’s chances during their window.
Their job is to build the best team they can, regardless of optics.
As a life long WS fan- I do like are young kids. Sure they have their ups and downs but there is some talent there. Can the coaching help? Hasn’t before. But keep letting the kids play! Bring up some more of them!
Part of the problem for the Sox is their notion that anyone can play anywhere on the field. Watch Vargas at first to see how that notion is wrong. His footwork is terrible . He stretches forward on his left foot to try a backhand catch of a throw in the dirt, misses it, and the runner(s) advance. He should have put his left foot on the bag, reached forward with his right, and then that throw in the dirt would have been blocked by his body. Where’s the infield coach? Who’s teaching him? Apparently nobody. They just seem to assume that anybody can just pick up a glove and play anywhere.
It has always been Reinsdorf’s unwavering sense of loyalty to former players and personnel that has destroyed the CWS and Bulls.
Great monkey’s paw reference
I hate to call out Tim on this, but a 102 wRC+ is not replacement level. 102 wRC+ is basically a league average hitter. A replacement level player, according to Fangraphs, produces an average of 17 less runs than a league average player over the course of 600 PA.
I’ve been seeing this misunderstanding a lot lately.
SSJ, you are right. 0.0 WAR is replacement level