With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each American League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit in certain years.
First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…
- Angels: 2009 (109.3 bWAR) – Go figure. Picking one of the greatest players of all time is a heck of a way to kick off a draft class. But this 2009 class wasn’t just about Mike Trout, even if he’s accounted for about two-thirds of its cumulative value. That year, the Angels also selected Patrick Corbin, Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs. Former MLBTR contributor Chuck Wassterstrom took a behind-the-scenes look at this class a few years ago.
- Astros: 2009 (53.2 bWAR) – Not a single one of the Astros’ top five rounders in 2009 reached the majors. The late rounds, though, were a smashing success with J.D. Martinez (20th), Dallas Keuchel (7th) and Kiké Hernández (6th) accounting for the class’ value. Of course, Martinez did his damage elsewhere after the Astros released him.
- A’s: 2012 (37.7 bWAR) – The A’s 2012 class produced seven big leaguers, most notably Matt Olson. He leads a group that also included Addison Russell and Max Muncy, who have played most or all of their MLB careers elsewhere.
- Blue Jays: 2009 (39.2 bWAR) – They won’t get credit for selecting James Paxton in supplemental round one here, but Yan Gomes was a nice find in the tenth round, though he would play only briefly in Toronto before being dealt to Cleveland. Outside of Gomes, the Blue Jays found a few nice role players, including Jake Marisnick, Aaron Loup, Ryan Goins, and others.
- Indians: 2011 (38.7 bWAR) – Selecting Francisco Lindor eighth overall in 2011 was a key to Cleveland’s 2016 AL pennant. So too was then-closer Cody Allen, whom they grabbed in the 23rd round. With Lindor mid-prime, the class’ value should just continue to grow.
- Mariners: 2006 (40.2 bWAR) – Doug Fister and Chris Tillman went on to become mid-rotation starters for a time (Fister arguably even a bit more than that), albeit with other clubs. Fifth overall pick Brandon Morrow disappointed as a starter but had a late-career renaissance as a quality reliever before various injuries derailed him.
- Orioles: 2007 (43.2 bWAR) – Although only four players from this class would wind up making the Majors, the combination of Jake Arrieta and Matt Wieters makes the 2007 draft a pretty solid one for the O’s. While Wieters, the fifth overall pick, maybe didn’t turn out to be the franchise cornerstone he was hailed to be, he has nonetheless had a nice career. Arrieta had a slow start in Baltimore, but would of course earn a Cy Young with the Cubs. It’s worth noting that this spot will be taken by the 2010 class before too long, almost entirely on the back of Manny Machado.
- Rangers: 2008 (33.3 bWAR) – Despite garnering only a 25th-round selection, Tanner Roark has turned out to be the most productive player in this class. First-round choice Justin Smoak deserves a mention too, though his career didn’t really take off until he’d been traded out of Texas. The 2011 class, headed by Kyle Hendricks, is not far behind and could claim this title in the near future.
- Rays: 2006 (81.5 bWAR) – Franchise legend Evan Longoria does a lot of the heavy lifting for this class, having amassed 56 total WAR by age 34. Even so, there are some other quality players here: Desmond Jennings and Alex Cobb are the other notables, with Jennings carving out a solid MLB career as a tenth-round pick.
- Red Sox: 2011 (70.2 bWAR) – This is far and away the best Sox draft class in recent memory, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Mookie Betts, one of the finest players in baseball, established himself as Boston’s franchise player after he was selected in the fifth round. Even outside of Betts, this class yielded a few key members of the Red Sox 2018 World Series team, with Jackie Bradley Jr. and relief ace Matt Barnes also coming out of that draft.
- Royals: 2007 (47.1 bWAR) – Speaking of drafting World Series contributors, the Royals in 2007 added both Mike Moustakas and Greg Holland, both of whom turned out to be central in the Royals’ playoff runs in 2014 and 2015. And that’s before mentioning third-rounder Danny Duffy, who’s still with Kansas City and inked a nice extension prior to 2017.
- Tigers: 2007 (20.6 bWAR) – With just 20.6 WAR, the Tigers’ best draft in recent memory doesn’t compare favorably to the rest of the AL, and that partly illuminates the franchise’s current standing in baseball. The notable player from the 2007 class is Rick Porcello, who had some nice years to begin his career with the Tigers and would later win a Cy Young. Maybe they get bonus points for discovering high-schooler D.J. LeMahieu, who wouldn’t sign with the team, in round 41?
- Twins: 2009 (32.4 bWAR) – Between Kyle Gibson and Brian Dozier, the Twins drafted a pair of staples on the Minnesota teams of the mid-2010s. But with both playing elsewhere now, keep an eye on the 2012 draft class, which features a trio of young centerpieces for a new era of Twins baseball: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are up-and-comers who could rack up a lot of value as they enter their primes.
- White Sox: 2010 (55.3 bWAR) – Chris Sale carries the 2010 class for the South Siders, by far the best draftee in an otherwise mediocre string of years for Chicago. That said, 2010 yielded a couple of other role players for the White Sox, with Addison Reed, Jake Petricka, and Tyler Saladino all making nice MLB contributions.
- Yankees: 2006 (69.4 bWAR) – Whereas many teams’ success in a given year is determined by one standout player, the Yankees’ installment on this list displays a surprising breadth of quality players, without a single superstar. Evidently, the 2006 Yankees cornered the market on MLB relievers: Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, and Joba Chamberlain are the five most productive players from the Bombers’ draft that year (granted, Kennedy didn’t transition to the bullpen until last year).
I agree! Great work! Thank you!
When you look at the very good players drafted after the fifth round, it makes you wonder how many really talented potential big leaguers will never get a chance now that MLB has gone to a five-round draft.
Never get a chance? You do realize they can still sign as undrafted free agents right?
And they all will be?
Any worth signing, the rest will stay in college, go the independent route or attend a tryout for an affiliate. If they have the talent they will be found.
They can sign next year when the draft goes back to 40 rounds.
The vast majority of MLB players are drafted in the first 15 to 20 rounds. I have been following the RS drafts for 37 years and almost no one of significance was drafted beyond the first 20 rounds
If they can stick with baseball in the meantime
If they were so talented they will. I have a hard time believing there’s 10 Micky Mantles out there that will not be discovered and quit on the sport because they were not drafted in this years draft.
@realsox
I’ve been out of touch with baseball news of late. They are going from a 40-50 rounds to 5???
Time to lock up Berrios
wow, did not know Longo had racked up that much WAR. does that make him a borderline HoF candidate?
Being that Lou Whitaker has 75.1 WAR and Bobby Grich has 71.1 WAR, evidently not.
Both of them clearly belong too. It’s time for the league to just admit it’s past failures in judging inductees and to not use omission as a prerequisite for denial.
Harold Baines was a 38.7 WAR——those guys and about 12,951 others are locks.
JAWS has him just below the average HOF 3B in terms of career and peak WAR but he certainly has a case.
There are worse players in the hall right now but even though his war is solid he did a lot of that in his early career. He went from face of mlb to afterthought pretty quick.
I think his peak to short and I think he’ll become a role player here soon which will prevent him from getting counting stats.
Wouldn’t be worst thing ever if he got in but there are better on the outside looking in
No matter what numbers you look at, Longo is not even borderline hall of fame. Not even in the discussion
He’s a no if he retired today but he’s on the bubble of a HOF career if he hangs around and stays reasonably healthy and productive. His counting stats are going to start looking pretty good.
We must be looking at different counting stats
I say no. He was very good, but never quite dominant. He had 7+ WAR only three times and never topped 8.2. His peak was too short as well. For those using Baines as a counter, I don’t think Baines should be in there, either. I don’t think it’s smart to justify a bad decision by pointing to a worse decision.
I going to miss these when things start back up it’s a great insight that many people forget or over look myself including great work
I know WAR isn’t the be all and end all but it’s interesting to see some organizations who get heaps of praise for drafting and developing talent who don’t rank favorably in this piece.
It’s just intended to be about who hit the biggest jackpot in one particular class. So there’s no credit for scoring big on other signings and trades or having a generally good record without one blowout draft class.
It’s interesting to see, aside from the Angels and Rays, how much the AL trails in drafting during the past decade.
The Tigers knew who D.J. LeMahieu was when he was a freshman because he played 20 miles of Detroit for Birmingham Brother Rice.
It’s a bummer he didn’t sign, he would have looked great in the old English D.
Yes he would have. Maybe he finish his career in Detroit
Desmond Jennings had a solid career? Dude only played in parts of 7 seasons and was only a starter for like 3.
That’s a solid career given how many don’t even get a cup of coffee.
I love this article and the other draft one. The fact that a lot of these teams best drafts have been made by one or two players out of 50ish picks just shows how difficult it is to project success in the MLB.
Would be interesting if there’s one for international signing classes.
Was thinking the same thing while I was reading this. Props to MLB TradeRumors to putting this together.
Astros 2015 draft may have been their recent best with Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, & Myles Straw all contributing and Daz Cameron, Thomas Eshelman, Trent Thornton, & Patrick Sandoval all traded for contributors. The total WAR for this group could be very good indeed.
I liked this article. I’d like to see one that’s a little more inclusive of a team’s development, though. Start with draft picks, but include international signings. Also, if a player was drafted by a team, but never played in the majors with them, credit should go to the team he came up with, e.g., Rizzo would be credited to the Cubs, not the Red Sox.
thankfully the Rangers traded their most productive draft pick to get that 1 RBI from Cristian Guzman.in 2010..
The M’s made this list only because they had to be included.
This should have interesting implications for years. (Note that drafts will be disrupted for a few years, b/c of the backlog and the interruption in dev of HS and college players). The reason the market for muddling veterans (the Denard Span article is a nice complement to this, indirectly) has tanked is bc they can be replaced by the surplus of young minor leaguers who are not good enough to be stars, but good enough to be useful spare parts, even if on AAA express for a few seasons, mixing and matching, before they finally quit baseball. But many of these spare parts are not top draft picks. How big an impact will these disruptions of talent flow have on supply of these players? Will this even briefly boost the market for middling vets while things are still in flux?
The Yankees have a scouting and analytics staff that is second to none. Any player not drafted in the first 5 rounds can be signed for $20K, and the Yankees can afford to sign a lot of them. Of course, they then have to have room for them on minor league rosters, or they can go back into next year’s draft.
Don Mattingly was drafted in the 19th round. Andy Pettitte was drafted in the 22nd round. Jorge Posada was drafted in the 43rd round. D.J. LeMahieu was drafted in the 41st round by the Tigers. I think the Yankees will go shopping and nab quite a few bargains.