We’ve already reviewed the top 10 picks from the 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2013 drafts. Let’s now take a look at the 2015 class. A half-decade later, one player stands miles above the rest.
1.) Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks:
- Swanson never appeared in a game for Arizona, which made the widely panned decision to trade him in a package for then-Braves righty Shelby Miller in the same year it drafted him. As MLBTR’s George Miller wrote several weeks, the Braves have indeed gotten far more value from the trade than the D-backs. For his part, the light-hitting Swanson hasn’t been great. However, he has been a passable, inexpensive regular. Not a ringing endorsement, but it’s at least more than can be said for some other No. 1 picks.
2.) Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, Astros:
- The Astros were only in position to select Bregman because they received a compensatory pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken, the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. What a break. Bregman made his debut just over a year after the Astros drafted him and has since evolved into one of the game’s elite players. The 26-year-old is now coming off his second straight MVP-level season, in which he batted .296/.423/.592 (168 wRC+), swatted 41 home runs, drew 119 unintentional walks against 83 strikeouts, and piled up 8.5 fWAR.
3.) Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS, Rockies:
- Rodgers’ first taste of big league action didn’t go well in 2019, when he took 81 trips to the plate and batted .224/.272/.250 (25 wRC+) without a home run before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in July. None of that sounds good, but there remains plenty to like about Rodgers. He’s still just 23, still a high-end prospect (MLB.com ranks him No. 29), and coming off a year in which he destroyed Triple-A pitching. In 160 plate appearances at that level, Rodgers slashed .350/.412/.622 with nine homers. Even in the offensively charged Pacific Coast League, that line amounted to a wRC+ of 147.
4.) Dillon Tate, RHP, Rangers:
- Tate, 26, made his major league debut in 2019 with 21 innings of 6.43 ERA ball, but not before being part of two notable trades in preceding years. The Rangers sent Tate to the Yankees in a 2016 deal for Carlos Beltran, and then New York sent the hurler to Baltimore in 2018 to acquire Zack Britton.
5.) Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros:
- Tucker hasn’t gotten much of a chance in Houston (he totaled 72 plate appearances in each of the previous two seasons), but he remains a touted 23-year-old whom the franchise has been loath to surrender in a trade. If a 2020 season does happen, Tucker could get a better opportunity to establish himself. It should at least come by 2021, as Houston’s entire starting outfield of George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are all due to become free agents during the upcoming winter.
6.) Tyler Jay, LHP, Twins:
- Injuries have helped cut down Jay’s career so far. Jay never pitched for the Twins, who traded the 26-year-old to the Reds last season, nor has he reached the majors. He spent most of 2018-19 as a reliever in Double-A, where he has logged a 4.22 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 136 1/3 frames.
7.) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:
- By measure of wRC+, Benintendi has only been a league-average hitter in two of his three full seasons; nonetheless, he has been a productive piece for Boston, and is clearly one of the most successful members of his draft class.
8.) Carson Fulmer, RHP, White Sox:
- As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently noted, Fulmer was regarded as a sure bet to succeed in the majors during his time as a prospect. Unfortunately, though, he has been a flop in the bigs. The 26-year-old owns a 6.56 ERA/6.44 FIP with 7.89 K/9 and 6.08 BB/9 across 94 2/3 innings (44 appearances, 15 starts). He ran up a 6.00-plus ERA last season, mostly from Chicago’s bullpen.
9.) Ian Happ, INF/OF, Cubs:
- Happ has given the Cubs plenty of versatility in the field while chipping in above-average offense in each of the three years he has appeared in the majors. Strikeouts were a major problem for Happ during his first two years, but he made enormous strides in that area a season ago, slashing his K rate from 36.1 percent in 2018 to 25 percent. That drastic cut helped Happ to a career-best line of .264/.333/.564 (127 wRC+), though he started 2019 in Triple-A after a miserable spring training and only appeared in 58 of Chicago’s games.
10.) Cornelius Randolph, OF, Phillies:
- The 23-year-old Randolph hasn’t played above Double-A, where he hit .247/.324/.399 with 10 homers in 389 plate appearances last season. Randolph failed to earn a ranking from Baseball America, FanGraphs or MLB.com in any of their most recent Phillies prospects lists.
—
Combined fWAR of this bunch: 36.5. Bregman has clearly been the rising tide lifting the other boats…
- 1.) Bregman: 20.5
- 2.) Benintendi: 9.0
- 3.) Happ: 4.8
- 4.) Swanson: 3.9
- 5.) Tate: 0.0
- 6.) Tucker: minus-0.2
- 7.) Rodgers: minus-0.6
- 8.) Fulmer: minus-0.9
Left off: Jay and Randolph, who haven’t played in the league.
LOL here come the Astros haters
No need to hate on cheaters. That says it all u know ? Imagine always have that cloud hanging over your head just like bonds McGwire and sosa
How do you not mention in the Bregman blurb that he’s a disgraced cheater who knew what pitch was coming and whose stats mean absolutely nothing? How can you claim journalistic integrity and fluff up Bregman like this? “One of the game’s elite players.” Did he pay you to write that? Disgusted.
I don’t like the Astros and I don’t like cheating in baseball but you act as if Bregman has no talent whatsoever. Nobody really knows how much his stats are inflated by the scandal but I think we can all agree he is a talented player.
Jt everyone except the child known as beisbola understands that
Lmao
Fangraphs back in January literally analyzed every outcome of every pitch that had a trash can bang. So people can actually see exactly how it affected the players performances. Go look it up. It’s not as insane as people make it seem like Bregman or Altuve would be batting .150 all season without trash can bangs.
Yes exactly. You have to AT LEAST mention that a large portion of those stats are way inflated due to cheating.
Fangraphs analyzed every outcome of every trash can pitch to see how it affected the at bat. Bregman’s stats were still somewhat similar (although less) if you threw out all of the cheated at bats and counted them as outs. Same goes for the other players. I think Gattis, White, Marisnick and Springer were the most benefactors of it.
Enrico,
219 ABs out of 1905 career ABs
From May 28th 2017 to the end of the year, Bregman hit
.302 at home 7HR, with an .860 OPS
He hit .297 with 9 HR and a .904 OPS on the road during that time.
You would probably be surprised to know that the majority of everyday players on the 2017 Astros were better on the road during the time frame where it’s known the trash can scheme was being implemented.
bro the astros cheated on the road too
How?
Yankee fans are hilarious when it comes to the Astros cheating. It’s amazing with what they come up with. The Astros got caught red handed, you don’t have to start making up new things like others have on here as well.
Codebreaker was used on the road. There was no live sign stealing with TVs on the road.
Maybe because in his best year none of that was going on
I agree. Someone recently wrote an article and it barely mention Fiers, but in that one little sentence about Fiers it called him a whistle-blower with a negative connotation. Everytime I read about Fiers on here the writers mention him being a whistle-blower, if they’re going to do that then they need to do the same with all of the cheating Astros.
Beisbolista’s lying is the reason the Yankees are being found to have stolen signs lmao karma
As a great Texan once said ( the late and great Eddie Guerrero), “if you not cheating, then you are noy trying.”
And his Sloan was Cheat 2 Win. How ironic.
When a stinking garbage can has more integrity & honesty then any Trashstro’s player, the hate will flow until the breaking of the world.
Way 2020 is going, it might or might not end soon.
Rogers been a top 30 prospect for 5 years. Zzzzzzzzz
Gary sanchez was on top prospect lists from 2009 to 1016. Sometimes it takes guys a while to develop. Doesnt mean they wont or cant be productive players .
That’s just because scouts always raved about his time travel ability. I kid
They can afford to take it slow with Rogers. The Rockies have Trevor Story, one of the top shortstops in the league who also took roughly 5 years in to work his way through the minors.. If he were on a team with a more immediate need we might have seen him called up by now.
Rodgers can also play 2nd base.
Of the pretty much consensus top 3 players at the time of the draft, only Rodgers was a high school kid as opposed to Swanson and Bregman who were college guys. They were actually three developmental years ahead of Rodgers at the start. It makes sense that he would take 3 years longer in the minor leagues.
If you actually look at the stats Bregman l’s numbers are still elite in the road. I’m disgusted with the whole team for cheating but he’s a guy who didn’t need to. But look at some of the other guys on that team who people praise as being great players and they home vs road splits are true examples of how cheating helped them succeed.
Cheating at home affects the scouting report other teams have on you. If you know what is coming you correct your approach. This isn’t as simple a home and road splits. If he knew a pitch he struggled with was coming he would lay off it or actually turn a trouble pitch into a hit. That could make teams adjust a perfectly created strategy and put a less effective one in place. There is a domino effect on the cheating
He’s still elite, but how elite is the question. A season without an advantage should tell us, but historical splits prove nothing.
Knowing they didn’t cheat in 19 and looking at his numbers tells you all you need to know about him
All numbers from 17 are tainted, 18 partially..but last year clearly showed who he is
We don’t know that for sure though.
We know they didn’t cheat in 19? Really? Or do we just not yet know how they were cheating in 2019?
I’d hope they were on the level, but just like the Patriots I’ll never trust them.
Marwin G, the biggest offender, was vastly worse at home. Springer, Gattis, McCann, Bregman, all worse at home. Altuve didn’t use the system, but he was better on the road. Reddick didn’t use it (much if at all) but he, Correa, and Gurriel were the only everyday guys that clearly were better at home. Beltran had slight improvement at home, which is a shame considering he will go down as one of the masterminds of a system he didn’t benefit from much.
oldoak33? Many ways the dominoes fall for a cheater. You have tried to convince non astos fans the cheating was not so bad. They cheated. No one brave enough to punch through the peer pressure. No one. They all should be banned for life. Make astos go away. Sorry for fans. Sorry for baseball. All their lives people will point at them and say cheater. Even if they did not use the system they knew and did not step up. Cheaters oldoak. Idiots.
Hi Cecil
I’m not sure what the Astros cheating has to do with Alex Bregman’s career arc as a star without signs being given to him, and I’ve laid out a solid case for why a sample size of 200-230 at bats are a fart in the wind compared to his sample size as an MLB player. Either way, I’ve never tried to sway anyone to believe that the Astros scheme “wasn’t that bad”. What I have done is try to illustrate why the scheme was a pointless exercise, how they did not benefit from it, and accounting for a loss in reputation and validity of a WS championship has only made the scheme a 99% net failure.
No one is saying the Astros didn’t cheat. It’s a fact, and I’m not sure why you feel the need to reiterate the fact. Maybe you could refute my statements, but maybe you’re lost in your obsession.
All you’ve done is reveal your overly emotional state of mind and ignorance. No player on the Astros, or any other team, is required to report or “stop” malfeasance. If you would like to see players held responsible for cheating, I would have to say I firmly agree. I do not agree that any player should be punished, especially retroactively, for failing to report anything to the league, media, or ownership. If you want to punish players for failing to stop or report cheating, make a rule that establishes this as a requirement.
We really don’t know when they were cheating. For all we know they could have had a system they used on the road. The players were given immunity but they still have every incentive to make the scandal look as overblown as possible. People on here act like they know exactly who cheated and when the system started and ended.
We do know who cheated and how, thanks to Mike Fiers, Carlos Correa, and other anonymous sources that were transparent. We also have video and audio evidence of the scheme, and the acoustic signatures left by the garbage can.
Have you thought about what a live feed system would entail on the road, and how a team would be able to conceal it from every home team employee working the dugout area?
Why would Mike Fiers, and the other “whistleblowers”, inform Rosenthal of the Home scheme, and not of one on the road?
Same can be said for Altuve. The only players it really helped were players like Gattis and Marwin. Bregman, Correa, Altuve, and Springer are all stars.
“The only players it really helped were players like Gattis and Marwin”
I’ve gone thru each of the Astros “everyday” guys splits from the time the trash can scheme was utilized. It most certainly did not help Marwin. He was far worse at home. Gattis was worse at home than the road.
Correa was much better at home. Probably the biggest beneficiary of the system.
Bregman, Altuve, and Springer were better on the road. I can objectively say the macro numbers do not suggest that on an individual basis the Astros everyday players were better with the scheme during the time it was used.
Well I stand corrected. I should’ve looked it up before. I just remember Marwin had a really good season. I do remember it being crazy how good the team was on the road this year. Blum talked about it just about every game.
Fangraphs back in January took every audible trash can bang and analyzed the at bat outcome so you can literally see how that might have affected the at bat.
jjd002 – Maybe to you. They tainted their accomplishments. For ever. Stinking Cheaters. Ban them.
They probably lie or will lie to their kids, parents, friends, and spouses.
It’s fun to hate on the Astros, who cheated. They’ve deserved everything that’s come their way and whatever is to come. But no one is confusing cheating for being bad at baseball. Bregman is elite and would probably fetch well over over 200 million on the open market.
Dillon Tate appears to be a bust. I was expecting more from him when Yankees got him. Then was disappointed he was included in the Britton trade. Hopefully he can turn things around.
Hopefully Ian Happ can break out this year and play every day. Something clicked for him last year and he played well after getting called back up. It would be awesome for the Cubs to get 130+ starts out of him and maybe a .275/.350/.500 slash line. He definitely has the talent. Just needs to put good at bats together consistently.
Astros dodged a huge bullet with the Aiken thing. Many hated them back then and it wasn’t nice towards aiken but if the astros had signed him they would have had two busted first overall picks in a row, so this was a good decision.
They absolutely blew to first overall picks in Aiken and Appel, and actually came out looking pretty great in both. They basically got Bregman and part of Osuna for those failed picks.
Astros dodged a huge bullet with the Aiken thing. Many hated them back then and it wasn’t nice towards aiken but if the astros had signed him they would have had two busted first overall picks in a row, so this was a good decision.
It’s amazing to me that Swanson is the last #1 pick to be in the majors. He was drafted 5 years ago!
Baseball draft is so different from other sports drafts that it is mindboggling.
A little rare, but I wouldn’t say its mindboggling for baseball unless you’re new to the sport
Bregman is a phony, a liar and a cheat. A scoundrel if you will.
Frisco? Wouldn’t have been a Bonds fan would ya?
Astros2017, your name reveals your bias sir
His name may or may not reveal a bias but he makes a good point.
what bonds did isn’t even close to as bad as what bregman did
Bregman cheating for 2 years vs. Bonds cheating for 15+ years. Yeah you are right. Not even close.
injecting a substance into your body is a whole lot more nefarious than what Bregman did, regardless of how much it might have helped.
I would go a step further with Bregman. There’s no evidence of a live feed sign stealing scheme in 2018, as far I know. The only sample size of evidence that coincides with anyone that admitted to the scheme was between May 28, 2017 to the end of that year. In 2018 it was noted that an attempt was made in early 2018 to continue the scheme, but wasn’t made possible. We know that sometime in 2018, and certainly 2019, chaperones were implemented in home and away locker rooms and video rooms to monitor the live feed in the replay room/video room. Live feeds in dugouts and clubhouses were made illegal.
I think it’s fair to say that the only sample size that’s been proven to have been greatly affected by the trash can scheme was May 28 2017 til the end of that year AT HOME. 219 at bats.
Carson Fulmer went from most likely the best P in the draft to hanging on by a thread as a middle reliever/mop up role. You never truly know what you’re going to get when you draft a player, at least not for 3 to 5 years.
I just don’t see how a guy who used illegal tactics to gain an advantage for half his major league career is a superstar. Sure in ‘19 he was great but I’d have to wait a at least a couple more years to call him a superstar.
Look at his home/road splits
Or look at what he does in All-Star games throughout his career.
Hard to dismiss what Bregman has done, but I still like Rodgers over Bregman long term.
MLB is entertainment and a slightly better betting forum than greyhound racing. Bergman cheated, so what? No one really cares. No one has appointed a prosecutor to review each player, organization personnel, agent or family betting patterns. Bergman has slightly more character than Bobby Thompson of NYG, Thompson knew the specific pitch was coming and lied about it for 50 years. Bergman, like Lance Armstrong, is who he is. After all it is just millions in salary for him, and fans or his defenders are merely athletic supporters.
Fans aren’t involved personally or professionally with any cheater. Yeah it would have been nice to know who Bergman told specificslly that the Astros were cheating to look at patterns but whatever.
Let it go. The Astros cheated. They destroyed some players careers, that subject is between every harmed player and the Astros organization.
Except for the fact that Bregman was as good if not better without the trash can scheme, and that there’s no evidence of Bregman utilizing a sign stealing scheme past 2017.
Bregman is a talented guy. You can see in his bat speed, his defense, and he hustles all game.
It is fair to call him a cheater and a jerk, his numbers are definitely inflated, but he’s talented. We just don’t really know how much so.
Polo G is da goat
“Jay never pitched for the Twins, who traded the 26-year-old to the Reds last season, nor has he reached the majors.”
Is it just me, or is this worded weird? I had assumed he didn’t pitch for the Twins organization at all due to injury since the author later said he never reached the majors. Not sure why it has to be mentioned in Teo different ways that he has never pitched in the bigs.
Ian Happ is severely underused. That’s the player the cubs should’ve extended for 15 mil over 5 years. Although he’ll unfortunately leave the cubs and get 10-12 mil aav.