This isn’t how Carson Fulmer’s career was supposed to go. The former Vanderbilt ace was one of the top-ranked prospects in his draft class back in 2015, and virtually no mock drafts compiled by Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB.com, etc. that spring had him dropping out of the top 10. At one point, Baseball America projected Fulmer to go to the D-backs with the No. 1 overall pick. “Fulmer is the surest big leaguer on the board, with a floor of elite closer,” BA wrote of Fulmer at the time — a pretty resounding endorsement considering that three of the players eventually selected ahead of him were Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi.
Obviously, things haven’t played out for the now 26-year-old Fulmer as hoped. Everything went according to plan following that ’15 draft. Fulmer pitched a scoreless frame in the Rookie-level Arizona League before being jumping up to the ChiSox’ Class-A Advanced affiliate. Despite being about two years younger than the average competition in that league, Fulmer allowed just five runs on 16 hits and nine walks with 25 strikeouts in 22 innings (2.05 ERA). That strong debut landed him on the top 100 lists at Baseball America (70) and MLB.com (38).
Fulmer’s numbers a year later weren’t as stout. He averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also more than five walks per nine frames while working to a 4.76 ERA out of the Double-A rotation. The Sox called him up to the big leagues that July despite the shaky numbers — just 13 months after he was drafted. Some will suggest that the organization rushed him to the Majors, but Fulmer was viewed as a potential quick mover from the time he was selected. He closed out the game in his big league debut, firing two shutout innings of relief in a loss to the Angels. The righty struggled in a handful of subsequent appearances and went back to Triple-A to finish out the season.
Since that time, Fulmer has been optioned back to the minors eight different times. He’s generally remained healthy but hasn’t succeeded either in Triple-A (5.39 ERA in 243 2/3 innings) or in the Majors (6.56 ERA in 94 2/3 innings). Now, Fulmer is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will have to carry him on the Major League roster or expose him to waivers whenever play resumes. In that regard, the likely expansion of rosters for at least part of the 2020 season will work nicely in Fulmer’s favor.
Fulmer’s velocity isn’t as high as it once was. A heater that reached 97mph “often” in college, per Baseball America, has averaged 93.2 mph in the Majors (93.7 mph in 2019). His command issues have been exploited by more advanced hitters, and his walk rate and frequency of wild pitches have spiked since reaching Triple-A.
Despite the lack of success at the game’s top levels, Fulmer isn’t without positive indicators. The spin rate on his four-seamer and curveball were both elite in 2019, ranking in the 91st percentile and 87th percentile among big league hurlers, respectively, per Statcast. He recorded healthy swinging-strike rates on his curve, cutter and changeup. In Triple-A, he racked up 51 strikeouts in just 34 innings — a 13.5 K/9 and 33.6 percent overall strikeout percentage that were both easily career-bests at any level.
Might a change in approach benefit him? A look at his career fastball usage at Brooks Baseball shows that he’s long worked down in the zone with the pitch and did so almost exclusively in 2019 — even at a time when much of the league is favoring four-seamers at the top of and above the strike zone. His avoidance of elevated fastballs would help to explain the paltry 4.2 percent swinging-strike rate on his four-seamer in 2019.
At this point, Fulmer has been leapfrogged by a host of new young arms in the Sox’ system — Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo Lopez among them. The White Sox’ initial hopes of Fulmer quickly ascending to the Majors to anchor a rotation alongside Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon have long since been dashed. There’s still room for him to carve out a long-term place in the team’s bullpen if he can piece it all together once games resume, but it’s far from certain that he’ll ever right the ship with the Sox. Chicago’s clear switch to a win-now mode should shorten whatever leash he’s been given in recent years. A change of scenery and a new outlook/approach could perhaps be best for Fulmer, but he’ll likely get one final shot to make things work with the South Siders.
I guess his floor wasn’t his floor.
I figured this was going to be an article about one of the many Mariner flops. I then saw the pic and was relieved. There are so many in the last few years. I know I get excited about our prospects we have but I come down from the cloud. I realize injury or just plain be a AAAA player. I also believe Dipoto is better at evaluating players than his two predecessors. Cue the bitter Angel fans.
They forgot about the basement.
Being a closer might still be possible, they haven’t tried him that way yet, and Colome’s contract is up after 2020.
Doesn’t have the velo or command to be a closer.
Bummer is the closer of the future.
They have not tried him at Closer since he has not earned that right
Man. Time and time again, and in every sport, we get reminded as to how inexact a “science” evaluating talent is.
One of the major reasons I always try to calm the expectations on guys like Franco.
Wander Franco just has such a great swing, and has maintained success throughout the minors (thus far). It’s guys like Jasson Dominguez that haven’t even seen a game in the organization that scare me. “He’s the next Mike Trout”, that just makes me mad when people say that about guys who haven’t even seen time in the minors! Or in the case of Vlad jr. last season when he was ranked a top ten 3rd basemen by baseball writers BEFORE HE EVEN SAW AN MLB PITCH! BTW: even though it is a minuscule detail, Vladdy was also a gold in MLB the show (which essentially means he was a higher ranked guy in the game). People need to stop putting so much pressure on prospects like that.
@Rangers29 Jasson Dominguez definitely wouldn’t have as much hype if he wasn’t in New York
True, just look up Joba Chamberlin.
I think the talent evaluation wasn’t as far off as many think. Evaluating what’s going on between the ears is much harder, and I imagine that could be the biggest problem for Fulmer, given the poor command and sharp performance drop at the higher levels of the game.
Evaluators also don’t project guys to lose 4 mph off their fastball. When that happens, that old scouting report isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. Dylan Bundy had a similar loss of velocity after his surgery.
well past time to cut bait
It’s not about “stuff” for Carson. It’s his delivery. Specifically his head-whip. (hat tip to FanGraphs for being the few to call this out early)
When Carson has the head-whack, he has the velo, spin and movement, but can’t control where it goes. When he smooths out his delivery, he loses spin rate and velo.
He can’t harness enough control to reliably get through even short BP stints, He’s a bust.
Let him go.
It’s hard to believe that just by whipping his head he generates different stuff. It is far more likely that what his body is doing to cause the “head-whip” is generating the stuff. So there could still be a way to figure it out so that he has command and stuff. Even if it is unlikely
Also no need to let him go if he is going to be making very little money. Might has well keep him around and hope things work out. No downside to doing so.
Carson Fulmer for Nick Pivetta. Switch em up
His baseball reference page broke.
From what I remember, Fulmer had a very violent delivery that allowed him to achieve his velocity in college, with lots of extra movement and a major head whack. The White Sox tried to simplify his mechanics to improve his control and reduce injury risk, but it sapped all of his power. After a couple years of ineffectiveness they let him go back to his original delivery, but thus far it hasn’t worked like it used to.
In hindsight it was a huge risk to take a 6-foot pitcher and try to develop him as a starter while also consciously taking a few ticks off his velocity. With the Sox in win-now mode at the time of the draft, I’m guessing they figured he would at the very least be a useful reliever in short order, but they ended up burning their roster to the ground a year later.
“With the Sox in win-now mode at the time of the draft, I’m guessing they figured he would at the very least be a useful reliever in short order, but they ended up burning their roster to the ground a year later.”
I don’t think that has anything to do with it. He was widely considered the best player available.
I guess this is what happens when you draft pitchers from Vanderbilt and Stanford that are way overused.
Matt Bush did show the world it’s never too late…
Yeah he carved out a decent career in the bullpen..amazing when you consider how low he was and being a position player .
i find it’s hard not to be inspired by Bush’s story. he managed to become a better person while completely reinventing himself as a baseball player as well. truly amazing.
If Dennis Quaid can do it then so can this guy.
If he isn’t hurt, he sounds like a prime candidate to send off to Driveline.
He went to Driveline after the 2018 season.
Remember thomas diamond?
sure do…i remember it was “DVD (Diamond/Volquez) but cant remember last name of the other D…
@tmc thomas diamond, Edison volquez, and john danks.
I wonder if this article took longer to write than his 38 minute weekly chat
Rofllmaocopterrothlisburger
I don’t remember many people questioning this pick when it happened. Dude was a tank at Vanderbilt and there was speculation he could see a major league bullpen before the calendar year was over. In hindsight maybe the White Sox should have just made him a closer from the jump but no team is doing that with that high of a draft pick. But yeah not looking good for Fulmer. Just not seeing the ability to miss bats with his fastball anymore. His breaking stuff becomes ineffective with his inability to get ahead of hitters and locate his other pitches. It’s one of those projects a team would love to get their hands but Fulmer truly has no confidence or approach to attacking professional hitters and I’m not sure a change of scenery fixes that.
Picking a decent MLB RP at #1 is a much better option than drafting Mark Appel or any other top 10 pick that never sniffs the bigs. Doesn’t even have to close, just pick a MLB player, it doesn’t matter as long as you get a regular out of it.
So because the Astros took Appel that means the White Sox did not blow this pick?
“His floor is elite closer”
*White Sox proceed to use him strictly as a starting pitcher for his first 4 years*
*Bad results happen*
*White Sox take no blame for the bad decision making*
he hasnt even shown the ability to be a decent RP in the Majors. what makes people still think he can close?
Gee, it’s almost like they were trying to reach his ceiling instead of his floor. You do understand that “floor” is the fallback plan if everything goes wrong, don’t you?
It was pretty clear that talent and ability wasn’t an issue with Carson Fulmer coming out of a prestigious college baseball program at Vanderbilt University, one that has produced MLB ace pitchers like David Price, Sonny Gray and Walker Buehler, the latter of whom was a rotation mate of his on a team that went to two consecutive NCAA World Series finals and winning one in each of their sophomore seasons.
It wasn’t just talent either. The results were there for Fulmer as well who was considered the ace of the Commodores after being a relief pitcher as a freshmen and then their closer early on as a sophomore before being promoted to the rotation. Fulmer led Vanderbilt to their championship and was doing the same as a junior as the winning pitcher in the Commodores 5-1 victory over Virginia. That was his final appearance as the Cavaliers went on to win the last two games including the finale when Beuhler was forced to leave his start early with an injury that resulted in TJ surgery shortly after the Dodgers drafted him with the 24th pick in the first round of 2015 June Draft. Fulmer was selected with the overall 8th pick earlier in the first round by the White Sox.
The biggest concern of scouts with Fulmer coming out of college was his violent delivery which led to concerns about potential injury and his ability to command pitches as a professional. The latter proved to be the bigger issue with Fulmer’s mechanics being adjusted by the White Sox early on as a pro when they persisted in him becoming a starting pitcher. I believe that Fulmer returned to more of his former delivery once it was established he was destined for a relief role in the organization. His results and his command improved at AAA later in the 2019 season at AAA Charlotte, although few White Sox pitchers have ever put up strong numbers in a ballpark that has been considered one of the best hitting/HR venues in all of minor league baseball with it’s short dimensions.
When I read the headline of this post, I thought “Crap, another piece on Dustin Ackley…”.
When I see a title like this, I think about Jurickson Profar…
At least Profar has put together at least 1 above average season
I suppose every fan can think of a can’t-miss bust for their respective teams.
Seattle has had a lot of bad first round picks over the last 15 years or so. A large part of it had to do with their inability to develop players.
Ackley had at least marginal success. How about Josh Vitters? Total bust and perhaps if he was even decent, the Cubs never draft Bryant. Him being a waste of the third pick in the draft, may have been the best thing for the Cubs.
Ackley was called a can’t-miss-pick. The consensus was “He’s going to hit”. Outside of his rookie year, which was a 90 game sample, he didn’t hit. No power, no discipline.
I mentioned him because I follow the Mariners and fans have had that rubbed in a number of times, especially since Trout was drafted the same year.
The real mistake the Cubs made was drafting Vitters to begin with. Seattle selected Phillippe Aumont that year.
I am just curious what would’ve happened if the WS let Fulmer use his crazy delivery instead of try to simplify it. I know it wasn’t a healthy motion, making his head whip like that, but would he have retained that top prospect hype and turned it into results at the MLB level? Yes, if he did, it would probably only last a few seasons like Tim Lincecum, but it’s interesting to think about.
Absolutely this. Happens all the time trying to “clean up” deliveries and/or swings, and the player loses what made them great in the first place. I’m 100% for letting players ride with what got them there until (if) they fail; then try to make adjustments if needed.
I believe Carson Fulmer kept much of his high octane delivery early on as a professional. He also seemed to post his best results during that period. The White Sox still envisioned Fulmer as a long term starter and his effectiveness began to decline as he rose to the AA level. At some point at AA and AAA the White Sox began adjusting his delivery with little positive effect. I then believe Fulmer was allowed to return to his former delivery last season when it was clear the White Sox were keeping him in the bullpen. It was then that his numbers and command began improving, perhaps a result of his delivery but also the fact that as a reliever he no longer needed to maintain a full arsenal of pitches.
I’ve also seen comments from some White Sox fans in the past suggesting that Fulmer wasn’t amenable to changing his delivery early on, that he was stubborn or reluctant. I’ve also seen statements from White Sox personnel that were just the opposite, that he was very coachable and open to any changes or role the organization had for him. Some things that are commonly known about Fulmer is that he is a very nice and charitable young man, one who has been a great teammate and representative for the White Sox at every level and in each city in which he has pitched. He is also very intelligent, something one would expect as a former Vanderbilt honor roll student.
Fulmer’s a prime candidate for a change of scenery. It would be great if Seattle were able to acquire him since he lives in the greater Seattle area now (Issaquah). A bigger ballpark and usage of his fastball could be the trick. He should stay in the bullpen.
He was viewed as can’t miss just because he was a Vandy ace starting pitcher and they have a pretty good track record of translating to the majors. David Price, Sonny Gray, Mike Minor, Walker Buehler, among others. Baseball fans tend to remember the successful ones, but try to forget the likes of Jeremy Sowers, Casey Weathers, and Grayson Garvin. The latter three were also Vandy starters picked in the first round. Weathers and Sowers were both top 10 picks even.
Fulmer looks like he is going to be joining the forgettable pile, but keep in mind that it took Mike Minor several years (and three organizations) to cement himself as a solid MLB pitcher. So maybe there is still hope for Fulmer.
Minor was a solid starting pitcher with the Braves, and then turned into a terrific relief arm with the Royals, and now is back to being a great starting pitcher with Texas (btw, he was a top ten in Cy Young voting last year). He has “cemented” himself several times, though last year was probably his best season of his career.
Fulmer is a pitcher who’d benefit from biggyback starts. He goes out for 3 or 4 innings knowing that’s all he’s going to pitch or go through the order twice I’m sure he’d add a little more heat to his pitches.
they’ve tried him as an opener before and he’s gotten obliterated…
Pitchers do not have it easy nowadays. Seeing a pitcher completely flame out by the time they reach the show is not a shock. Some rule changes to benefit pitchers will never happen. Many more can’t-miss pitching prospects will bust in the near future.
and with the pick after, the Cubs select… Ian Happ! Ouch!
Yeah? At 24 dodgers took Walker Buehler. Oooops! And at 28 Braves took Mike Soroka. Burn! Cubs should probably start drafting and developing pitching instead of signing free agents.
The Cubs have publicly stated that they aren’t interested in pitcher development. Hoyer stated that they will let someone else do the developing, and then trade, or wait for free agency. They got away with it one year, but not a long term success rate.
It was common knowledge that Walker Buehler had some arm issues in his final season at Vanderbilt, one that led to TJ surgery shortly after being selected by the Dodgers. His draft stock dropped allowing him to be available with the #24 pick in the first round.
This also happened to White Sox starter Lucas Giolito who was considered the top high school pitcher in the 2012 Draft, potentially a #1 pick and definitely a top-5 selection. Giolito also needed TJ surgery and fell to the Nationals at #16.
White Sox starter Dylan Cease was also considered a high ceiling prep pitcher and a potential first round pick in the 2014 Draft. He also needed TJ surgery and fell to the 6th round where he was picked by the Cubs.
Yeah, but unlike Fulmer, he hasn’t been a total disaster.
Yeah, as a Sox fan, that one doesn’t hurt at all. Passing on Fulmer’s rotation-mate hurts much, much more.
He had a decent football career with the Bengals And Raiders and Cardinals though…..
Turn him into a closer already!
Seems like a candidate for the bullpen at this point. Going to the bullpen fulltime should give back a couple of clicks on his fastball. Also, with the elite spin rate on his 4 seamer, he should be pitching up in the zone as noted by Steve Adams.
Seems so obvious, I suspect its already been tried yet he threw his 4 seamer low in the zone almost exclusively last year.
Top draft picks fail all the time. It’s a crapshoot. I’d rather trade away top picks for more picks or known talent.
It’s possible Fulmer can still be useful for the Sox, but we have to toss out any expectations we previously had of him. He’ll never make it as a starter, and he’ll never be a closer. But he can still be a strong piece of the bullpen at his best. If he can ever put it together (huge if), he’d be ideal in an Andrew Miller type role (just don’t expect Miller type numbers in his prime).
Assuming they play this year (obviously no guarantee), as crazy as the season is going to be, they might as well keep him for this year. If he’s that bad the first couple of months, then get rid of him. Otherwise, let’s see where he goes with this last opportunity he’s been given.
They handled him poorly last year, not that this is the main reason he struggled (let me make that clear). Once they brought him up, they should’ve just kept him up all year, instead of bouncing him between Chicago and Charlotte like a ping pong ball. Or, they should’ve just kept him in Charlotte once they sent him back down the first time. However you want to look at it.
Nevertheless, this is a perfect example of there being no guarantee a top prospect will pan out. He looked good as a starter for about a month his rookie season, and looked OK from time to time in relief, but you want a lot more from your #8 overall pick in the draft.
If the White Sox would have left his mechanics alone, and not rushed him through the minors, he may have had a shot to at least be a decent relief option.
Instead, they have been messing with both his mechanics and his head his entire time with the organization.
Hahn has repeatedly drafted players who were productive with their unorthodox approaches, asked them to change, them watched them struggle. You can add both Zack Collins and Jake Burger to the list.
This happens literally all the time in every single organization.
“You can add both Zack Collins and Jake Burger to the list.”
Jake Burger? Really? Unless they secretly tried to change the way he runs after they drafted him, nothing they did led to the problems he has dealt with. They got extremely unlucky with Burger. Nothing more, nothing less.
Actually, that’s exactly what they tried to do.
They put him on an aggressive weight training program, because they thought he was too chubby.
Baseball players don’t just bust Achilles running to first. His training regimen likely contributed to the injury, and later injury. Baseball player don’t just tear tendons like that doing something they have done for years, without stress on the ankle.
Actually, they do. Never played a sport in your life, have you?
Still play sports. And it’s long been established that excessive strength training leads to busted ligaments. Burger went from chubby to ripped in one offseason, then busts his ankle a few games into Spring Training. I doubt they aren’t connected.
Dylan Covey and Fulmer coached by Don Cooper, doesn’t get better
Thought this would be about Wil Myers or Jurickson Profar