Even the very top of Major League Baseball’s amateur draft is a crapshoot. Looking back at the top 10 picks from 2010, you’ll see some players who have evolved into superstars, some who have turned into decent contributors, some who didn’t sign with their teams and have since washed out of the game, and others who simply busted. Take a look…
1.) Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals:
- This was an easy pick for the Nationals, who selected one of the most hyped prospects in the history of the game. Harper delivered in Washington, where he slashed .279/.388/.512 (30.5 fWAR) with 184 home runs, 75 stolen bases, an NL MVP and six All-Star nods from 2012-18. The Nationals lost Harper to the division-rival Phillies before 2019 on a 13-year, $330MM contract – both record numbers for a free agent – but the Nats still went on to win their first World Series last fall.
2.) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates:
- Considering who went next, the Pirates might regret this pick, but Taillon has been a solid major league starter when healthy. The 28-year-old owns a 3.67 ERA/3.55 FIP with 8.09 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 466 innings since making his debut in 2016. However, luck has not been on his side. He overcame cancer in 2017, but he missed most of last season as he dealt with arm problems. Taillon underwent Tommy John surgery last August, so odds are he won’t pitch in 2020 even if a season happens.
3.) Manny Machado, SS/3B, Orioles:
- Machado joined Harper in cashing in prior to 2019 – the infielder inked a 10-year, $300MM pact with the Padres – but only after a marvelous run in Baltimore. As a member of the Orioles, Machado batted .283/.335/.487 (120 wRC+) with 162 homers, 47 steals, 27.7 fWAR and four All-Star appearances over parts of seven seasons. The Orioles, knowing they wouldn’t sign Machado when he became a free agent, traded him to the Dodgers in July 2018.
4.) Christian Colon, INF, Royals:
- This is the first pick so far that hasn’t gone well with respect to regular-season production, but at least Colon’s responsible for one of the biggest playoff hits in Royals history (video here). He played with the club from 2014-17 and hit .263/.323/.329 (80 wRC+) with only one home run and 0.7 fWAR. Colon has since been with a few other organizations (the Marlins, Braves, Mets and Reds), but he has totaled a mere 56 at-bats since his Kansas City tenure ended.
5.) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Indians:
- Pomeranz never even pitched for Cleveland, which sent him to Colorado in a 2011 blockbuster that delivered righty Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians. Jimenez didn’t perform well in Cleveland, though, and nor did Pomeranz in Colorado. Pomeranz did enjoy a nice run as a reliever/starter for the A’s, Padres and Red Sox from 2014-17, but he had an awful time in Boston and San Francisco during the prior two seasons. However, Pomeranz reinvented himself out of Milwaukee’s bullpen late last season, leading one of his previous teams – San Diego – to hand him a four-year, $34MM contract this past winter.
6.) Barret Loux, RHP, Diamondbacks:
- Loux failed his physical with the Diamondbacks because of shoulder and elbow problems, thereby stopping the club from signing the former Texas A&M Aggie after spending a top 10 pick on him. While Loux went on to spend time with the Rangers and Cubs organizations from 2011-16, he never reached the majors. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks got a compensatory pick in 2011 (No. 7) for not signing Loux. They used it on righty Archie Bradley.
7.) Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets:
- Harvey was magnificent in New York at the outset of his career, as he logged a 2.50 ERA/2.54 FIP with 9.28 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 over his first 367 2/3 innings from 2012-15. His career has trended in the opposite direction since then, though, owing in large part to major injuries. As a Met, Red and Angel from 2016-19, the Dark Knight combined for 400 frames and stumbled to the majors’ third-worst ERA (5.65) among qualified starters. Harvey, now 31 and still a free agent, is hoping some team will take a chance on him once the game’s freeze on transactions is lifted.
8.) Delino DeShields, OF, Astros:
- A highly disappointing pick for the Astros, with whom DeShields never played a big league game. They lost him to the rival Rangers in the December 2014 Rule 5 Draft. DeShields didn’t make much of a mark in Texas, but it was able to use him to acquire righty Corey Kluber from the Indians over the winter.
9.) Karsten Whitson, RHP, Padres:
- Whitson didn’t join the Padres, instead deciding to reject their $2MM offer after the draft. Injuries ended up tanking the former Florida Gator’s stock in the ensuing years, and though the Red Sox did draft Whitson in the 11th round in 2014, that wound up as his only season of pro pitching. As for the Padres, they used their 2011 compensatory choice (No. 10) on infielder Cory Spangenberg, who rarely rose above replacement level with the club from 2014-18. He’s now a member of Japan’s Seibu Lions.
10.) Michael Choice, OF, Athletics:
- In hindsight, this is yet another regrettable pick (or, in this case, choice). Choice totaled 19 PA with the Athletics (all in 2013) before they traded him to Texas in a deal for outfielder Craig Gentry and righty Josh Lindblom. He failed to establish himself as a Ranger from 2014-15, though Choice has since raked at times in Korea, Mexico and the Brewers’ minor league system. The 30-year-old signed a minors deal with the Rockies this past January.
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Here’s a painful reality for the above teams that didn’t hit on their selections: In the next baker’s dozen picks, Yasmani Grandal (No. 12) Chris Sale (13), Mike Foltynewicz (19) and Christian Yelich (23) came off the board. It’s yet another bit of proof that you never know how a draft will pan out.
People may not like them for whatever reasons but Harper and Machado will be HOFers most likely. >75% chance.
Shout out to the GOAT Christian Colon for getting the World Series winning RBI for the Royals in 2015.
Agreed…barring injury and they both play another decade or so, both get in.
That’s the big “if”. A lot of the time the difference between making or missing the HOF is whether or not a player finds a way to mock the progression of time and stay healthy and productive all the way through to 40 or so.
I expect Manny will have a very strong argument, but don’t think Harper will. His numbers are just too heavily inflated by 2 seasons he otherwise cant come close to touching. All the other years, including his most recent few, look to be around his baseline ability. They are not to HOF level. He still has time to turn things up a notch or two, but as it stands, he’s more a “Hall Of Really Good” member
I’ll also say, I’m not completely sold on his possible longevity either though – I can’t help but see Jason Bay, if I’m honest
You can debate Harper for sure, but saying Manny has a better shot than Harper seems crazy to me. Harper has better numbers for the last 5 years IMO. I guess it depends on what stats you value more, but to me Harper has the edge. All that can easily change.
That being said, I don’t consider either a sure bet right now. They’re both very good players, but neither is elite. I don’t think either player hit their peak yet though. So there’s definitely some potential there.
Machado has a gigantic Defensive positioning advantage. Harper is a corner outfielder with not that great defense, and it is defense that will only continue to deteriorate. That cancels out a lot of his hitting, as it makes him not unlike a ton of corner outfielders who have come before him.
Also, Harpers mold often peaks early, and has quite possibly already been seen in his seasons of now 4 and 6 years ago. He hasnt shown that ability anywhere else, and his last few seasons could be taken to indicate he may have already started a downward trajectory. We’ll see if he breaks the mold, but as I mentioned, I do see Jason Bay – and he was basically done by 31.
None of us can today say for sure if Harper will be playing at a star level in 3 or 4 years, but I have my doubts. But yes, no way he is a HOFer if he doesnt dramatically increase this production and consistancy moving forward
To paraphrase Mean Girls: stop trying to make the Jason Bay comparison happen. It’s not going to happen.
Neither will be HOF’s. Did you see Machado’s line last year with a juiced ball? He took himself out of the HOF when he signed with SD. He needed to stay in a small park.
Very fetch comment!
The Bay line was a throwaway, said solely because that is always who he reminded me of, but that I ultimately could have cared less about
Must irk you to no end that I not only showed Bay was a consistently equal to better hitter than Harper, but that so were David Justice, Tim Salmon, Will Clark, Jim Edmonds, and countless other non-HOF worthy stars of the last 20 or so years.
Time to face the facts, Harper just isnt whatever you talk yourself into believing he is. He’s a mediocre all star – easily in the “Hall Of Very Good” but no where near HOF unless he dramatically increases his production over the next 5-7 years.
Pauly14,
Machado’s line last season was near identical to every other year, with just one exception – babip (it was 274, down from a normal of 300+)
It is not uncommon to see babip fluctuations, especially among destintcly infield type hitters. See, for example, one of the epitomes of SS/3B types; Cal Ripken
Ripken posted a 125-145 OPS+ in his first 5 seasons, then posted a 105 in 2 of his next 3. That is because his babip fluctuated from it’s normal roughly 290, down to 250 range
There is not really evidence to support Machado will be anything but his normal hitting self moving forward, with all the projection sites backing that up by expecting a season perfectly in line with his career normal for 2020, had there been a normal season
Harper is not the acclaimed player the media hyped him up to be all those years ago, but he’s also not the “overrated mediocre” player his haters try to portray him as. The guy’s OBS is consistently impressive. He is a very solid player and it’s not crazy to say he has Hall of Fame potential.
Harper/Bay doesn’t work for a variety of reasons including playing time. Harper is relatively healthy. Bay was not. In fact, Harper will likely reach more career ABs than Bay in the 2022 season. It’s just a ridiculous to even put the two together. It’s cool to hate on Harper. I get it. The media loves to cover his every move, and he’s not a top 10 player. But Jason Bay? Come on. “That’s a clown comment.”
Apparently you cant read, like at all
I have consistently said he is in the “Hall Of Very Good” but does not reach HOF levels at all unless he dramatically increases his production moving forward. “Hall Of Very Good” is where all the borderline or slightly short of HOF players and up. How is saying”Hall Of Very Good” in any possible way a slight against him? Its basically exactly what you are now trying to say
So “Hall Of Very Good” – that does not mean I’m saying he’s a bum, that does not mean I’m saying he doesn’t deserve praise, that doesn’t mean I’m saying he should be benched – it solely means exactly what it says; hes very good but not a HOFer. How is that so hard for you triggered people to understand? There is no “hate” anywhere to be found, only your sides odd obsessive jumping in to defend a guy with pure nonsensical hyperbole when a little bit of reality is introduced.
And yes, Bay got hurt. Harper might be done by 30 just the same. We dont know that yet – but we do know, based solely off their first 8 seasons, Bay was a very comparable hitter …and no one ever claimed Bay was a “surefire HOFer” like Harper gets. That isnt saying Bay deserves the Hall before Harper does, that solely saying “you need to put things in perspective, because as things stand, Harper is really no better than Bay …or Salmon, or Clark, or Justice, and not nearly as good as guys like Edmonds or Berkman.”
A “surefire HOFer” is comically foolish to pronounces at this time, and he actually needs dramatic improvement over the next 5-10 years to reach that level. Again, that isnt remotely hate, no matter how riled up it makes you – that is nothing but hard reality as it stands right now
I’m not arguing with your opinion on Harper not being a HoF right now. He wouldn’t get my vote yet. So I’m with you there. I never once disagree on that. He has some work to do. If he stays healthy into his 30s, producing similar numbers to 2019, I think he has a strong case. And yes. I’m talking about 2019, not 2015. He was phenomenal that season, but he’s always been solid.
I just think you take it way too far with the Jason Bay stuff. Harper is much healthier, and already has better numbers than Bay (31.7 WAR and .897 OPS for Harper. ). And while Harper will surely decline at some point, there’s no reason to think it’ll be any time soon. The guy is only 27! Bay dealt with injuries his whole career. I just don’t see it as a fair comparison.
I never took it anywhere with the Bay stuff. I’ve continually said Bay is merely who he had always reminded me of personally.
The only reason the Bay stuff went anywhere past that is because the triggered little boy with the extreme Harper mancrush laughed it off as absoluetly impossible to compare the bats of the two players. So after I casually showed that Bay actually hit unbelievably similar over his pre-injury career, that poster quickly completely changed his tune into saying Bay himself was a surefire HOFer had he stayed healthy. That is peak pathetic
So again, no Bay stuff from my end really at all – and if you have an issue with it in any way, take it up with the triggered little boy in the other portion of the comments. Bay would have never even been mentioned a second time if not for his silly hyperbole
That said, everything I said about Bay and all those other guys is also true though, and it does show how overrated some people make Harper. Bay was comparable with the bat but fell off because of injury, Clark and Berkman were actually much better over their first 8 seasons, Edmonds was equal with the bat but with GG Def from Center to boot, while Justice and Salmon were about equal overall. And those were just a few random non-HOF caliper names that popped into my head, I barely looked at anyone else
Now Harper might just get dramatically better moving forward; it could happen. If he does, he’s likely in. But that is realisticly very unlikely, and it is more likely he falls into the rut all those other comparable guys faced – not improving their numbers and/or not staying healthy. Most comparables to Harper were either not at AS level, or even leaving the game, by the time they were in their early to mid 30s. That is probably the most likely outcome for him, and if it happens, no one is going to even consider him for the Hall.
He has time, but he’s also hurt his chances in 3 of his last 4 seasons – carrying that 125 OPS+ range production over the next 5 or so years is going to leave him well short of the mark. 125 range production is what you expect from an average star, not a HOFer.
But Harper has produced 125 range OPS+ in now 6 of his 8 seasons, so he needs to step it up big time before he plays himself out of the running
Well, as long as the projection sites back it up, then it must be so. Projections are never wrong!!
Projection sites track trends in production. Things can change, of course, so they can of course not get numbers right. But they are using his recent trends in production to see what he should be in the coming season – and even with the down year last year, his production trends didn’t really change at all.
Because ability shown didn’t change, only the babip did, there is no reason to expect anything other than a great hitting (for left side infielder), high level defensive season from Manny. Babip fluctuations are just a normal, often unavoidable part of the game. That is all 2019 was for Machado, based off the actual stats and rates
The only little boy is you with a chip on your shoulder to bash Harper in any way possible. Ive already said I am completely neutral to Harper and the 2 teams he has played for and I also brought Yelich and Betts into the same argument and you conveniently ignore all that because it doesn’t fit your narrative that everyone who likes Harper is some kind of ”fanboy” or ”mancrush”. The only mancrush is you who has a borderline fetish with bashing Harper since you have been refusing to name Yelich and Betts into this discussion since I mentioned them. Its ok man go back to stabbing your Harper voo-doo doll.
/\ /\ /\ this is that emotionally triggered boy with the obvious mancrush (he’s now trying to deny) as you can probably tell by the hyper emotional, but completely factless, rant.
He’s the only reason Bay was ever talked about a second tine, and not because I cared to talk about him, but instead solely because he laughed at the idea. That’s the conversation that ended with him proclaiming Bay too was a surefire HOFer if not for the injuries …he’ll resort to saying literally anything to protect his little crush, clearly
Nice name calling and ignoring valid points. Only triggered boy is you. Keep refusing to address Betts or Yelich who I have had the exact same argument for. It only makes your Harper derrangment look worse. Im willing to defend those players too but hey that doesn’t fit your narrative. Harper has a better body of work than Bay’s whole career already, and he has 12 years to go in the bigs at least. It was a dumb comparison and your evem dumber for thinking I changed my view on him. If anything its consistent with what I said from the begining lol. Bay had a good foundation but didn’t peak long enough. I wonder if you’ll actually reply with a valid argument or just keep namecalling.
Want a reply, fine
I’ve never said a true actual negative thing about Harper here. I’ve provided facts, and correctly pointed out he needs to dramatically improve his game for a long period of time if he wants a shot at the Hall, because as things stand, hes not unlike an endless amount of similar stars that have come before him.
You couldn’t handle that. At all. So you’ve ranted on and on, calling me a “hater” in every single post, and obsessively insisting somehow Harper is this ‘surefire HOFer” before he even turns 31 (that is only 3-3.5 years from now)
You throughly had your rear handed to you in those conversations though, so it’s meant an endless series of changes to your argument. Where once it was hes a surefire HOFer, it’s now that other people are all just haters that peopleshouldnt listen to. Where once it only 3 more years of this production, now you somehow claim he’ll be an allstar for the next 12 seasons (based off nothing more than you wanting that to be true) and that’s what will get him in. You’ve also desperately started to try to change the subject to Yelich and Betts (apparently?) but as I talready old you below, I wasnt even reading your rants anymore as they were so repetitive, emotional and factless. So I wasn’t even aware you were tryingto xhange the subject away from the one you were getting destroyed in. And yes, your Bay flipflopping has been absolutely all over the place, and true comedy to watch unfold.
All of it for what? The only thing you’ve proven is how deep your mancrush actually goes, and how little you can actually read what is being said. I don’t even know if you know what has you all triggered in the first place, as the things you are emotionally ranting about just dont usually have anything to do with anything anyone actually ever said.
So as I’ve told you multiple times now, I’m sorry you picked the wrong horse to obsessively proclaim one of the greatest players to ever play the game …but he just isnt. He’s very good, maybe about top 30 in the game today. Problem is, maybe top 30s do not generally end up in the HOF – they are the guys like Bay, Salmon, Edmonds, Justice, Clark, Berkman, etc. Really good all stars for a while, but on the outside of the HOF because they did not actually produce outside that same level Harper has provided in 6 of his 8 seasons (a roughly 125 range OPS+) and about for his career overall if you ignore the one fluke year
Getting into the Hall is not about having a career of rather average star-level production plus one clear fluke you were never able to get close to replicating. Getting into the Hall is about being one of the absolute undeniable best in the game over a fairly long period of time, and star level otherwise.
So far, Harper has 2015, and 2017 to a lesser degree. That leaves him about 5-7 clear megastar years away from being in the conversation for the Hall – hence my repeatedly saying he needs to dramatically improve over the near future if he wants to have a real shot. Sorry that those simple facts trigger you so badly, but they are just harmless facts regarding the situation as it actually, currently stands
And we have officially gone full circle to your ridiculous idea of him being a 125 OPS+ hitter in non 2015/17 is an argument against his hall equity so far. Sorry but those seasons count. His career OPS+ is not 125. Its 137. Whats funny is this whole thing started because I said he was a productive player and even that triggered you. You can make stupid assumptions all you want about my supposed “Harper mancrush”. He is actually #4 on my top OFs this decade behind Trout, Yelich and Betts. Its not changing the subject since you have a strange obsession with calling anyone who defends him a fanboy. Trout is already in the hall and the other 3 will be if they continue production for 4 more years. And no steroid era players is not a valid comparison. I don’t need to give anymore validation to someone so derranged against a player their only resort is to call anyone who disagrees with them names. When Harper is in the Hall of Fame in 20 years I’ll come back here and @ you on the article. Hopefully you won’t have given yourself a concussion after hitting your head against the wall when his selection to the hall is announced.
Oh my lord, it’s like logic just doesn’t exist in your world
144 – career OPS+ after 2015
140 – career OPS+ after 2017
137 – career OPS+ after 2019
At this current rate (-7 OPS+ in 5 seasons) his career OPS+ will be 130 in 5 more years, and around 125 in 10 more seasons time
Why? Because he keeps producing seasons in that 125 OPS+ range! His career average is working towards his normal production levels with the more seasons he plays at that production level. This isnt rocket science here man
So sorry I have to break it to you, but 2015 only counts one time. If he has a 20 year career consistently producing around a 125 OPS+ (thats 12 more years, and a pretty big if), that 2015 season would be just 1/20th of his entire career average. 1/20th of something does not influence the number that much – and no where near how much 1/8th currently does
Dont believe me? Do the math yourself. Multiply 125 by 19, and add in 198. Then divide it by 20. What you will get will be just a bit over 125 (127, maybe?)
So yes, if he keeps producing around 125 OPS+ each season, he will be yet another in a long line of very good stars that had one amazing season. 125 OPS+ is something 270 other hitters have so far accomplished over their careers though; it is not elite. 125 OPS+ is Bernie Williams and Eric Davis. 125 OPS+ only gets you in if you are a multi-deminsional star. Think Kirby Puckett or Tim Raines. Harper is not that; he is a largely bat-only corner OFer that is very inconsistent with said bat
If he wants to be in the HOF, then he can not end his career with a roughly 125 OPS+, period – he likely needs it to be around, to over, 140 (Carlos Delgado is at 138 over a 17 year career, and he’s not getting in)
And if he’s going to have a career 140 OPS+ over his entire 20ish year career, then he has to have a better than 140 OPS+ every year moving forward …and that would be a dramatic production increase over his current (125 range) production level he keeps showing (as I’ve now told you about 30 times now?)
So for maybe the 31st time, Harper needs to dramatically increase his current production (from his 125ish, probably up to about 145ish over the next 12 full years) or he will not get in. At his current rate, he will be one of about 200 guys (most all not in the HOF, and especially if they are a Corner guy) to have a career OPS+ mark under 130. Again, just a simple reality.
And if he has one 2017 level season which is more than possible at his age your OPS+ regression projections go completely out the window. A first baseman from the steroid era LOOOLLLLL there’s another point you have had no answer for. Every single player you named as comparison was from the most controversial era in baseball history. There are hall of famer voters who flat out admit they will not vote for anyone who played in the steroid era. Wonder what steroid era player you will bring up next as a comparison? I’ll go with Juan Gonzalez!
Pretty simple math is clearly one of the many things you can’t grasp at all.
Even is he had another fluke 156 season, and averages 11 more 125 ranges otherwise, you are talking a roughly 127 OPS+ moving forward
127 over the next 12 seasons lowers his current 137, just like 125 would. That is because 127 is lower than 137.
You can at least understand 137 is a much bigger number than 127, right? And that 127 isnt much different than 125?
So really man, just stop with the silly, nonsensical, desperate reaches that dont hold up to reality at all. You have a massive crush, we all get that, you’ve screamed it as loud as you possibly could. And you’re emotional because someone dared point out actual reality in the face of your crush, we get that too. But all you’re doing here is embarrassing yourself, and not making a single dent in the actual reality. Or putting it more simply, your mancrush doesn’t magically change math. Math is math no matter how devoted you are to your love of the guy
Pauly14 – agreed, SD is not the kind of ballpark that helps a player offensive. Beltre was able to overcome 4 years in Seattle by signing with the Rangers, so if Machado can get traded to a team that has a small ballpark maybe, but if not NO WAY he make the HOF.
The thing that harper could help is his young start.this means he has a lot of time to compile numbers albeit he missed some of that time with injuries. He is by no means a lock but he has a chance to compile a lot of WAR, hits, rbi and homers
@dominikk85 Agreed. He is 27. He will be playing in a hitter’s park for the rest of his career. His best offensive seasons may be still to come in my opinion. Last year he really didn’t have much protection in the lineup and he still put up solid numbers. So I think it’s not crazy to think he has a HoF career, but he has some work to do.
And scoring the winning run after drawing a huge walk and stealing a huge bag in the Royals famous 2014 Wild Card game.
Pete Rose is not a hall of famer, but Astros were able to keep their championship after cheating. He could be considered the real face of the sport with the most hits. Crazy ,right?
Not even an Astros fan, but that has literally nothing to do with this article.
Ah the difference between cheating to win and gambling, where guys don’t always want to win.
But I’m sure every time Pete got thrown out trying to snag that extra base was hustle, right? He couldn’t have been down with the bookie and making an out. Never.
Pete Rose broke the cardinal rule of the sport and gambled on his own team. If it weren’t for the Black Sox scandal Rose may have only gotten suspended. Since that was actually throwing games that is more serious than trying to get an edge in a game. Gaylord Perry threw a banned spitball but got in.
Pro-tip: Generally, the comment section is for comments relevant to the attached article. Not for random, tiresome Pete Rose nonsense.
Nowheredan- Congratulations, I’m impressed by your intellect.
We all wish the same could be said for your’s.
30 years of banishment seems enough. The all time hits leader should be in the HOF. I think the PED users were worse for baseball.
Manfredsajoke………
Would you be saying that if it had been your 14-15 year old daughter that Pete was “having an affair” when he was 30+, married, with kids at home?
nydailynews.com/sports/all-time-hits-leader-pete-r…
Hey, let’s not bring Ted Nugent into this.
Being the all-time hits leader has almost nothing to do with being the face of the sport. Is Kareem Abdul-Jabber the face of the NBA? No, Michael Jordan is. Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, and, in my opinion, over a dozen others have more of a claim to the “face of baseball” than Pete Rose, even a HOF inductee Pete Rose.
Give it a rest with the astros hate. Root against them. I really would not want to be a fan of a sport that does token taking away of championships to sate the vengeful thirst of fans like yourself. Leave that at college. Nothing that the commissioner could do can make the Dodgers win that WS. Not even awarding it to them. Move on
Loser Cardinal fans
Your organization should have been kicked out of baseball for stealing info from the Astros
No one went to prison for the Astros
Machado is probably the only one. Harper needs to start turning on the production or he isn’t getting in.
More like the other way around. Harper has a higher OBP, slugging %, and OPS+ the past 5 years compared to Machado.
More like the other way around. Harper has a higher OBP, slugging %, and OPS+ the past 5 years compared to Machado.
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And one is a GG 3B, and one is a mediocre RF.
Mediocer is a stretch. More like above average. Has a career +3 DRS, 2 UZR/150, 1.6 range runs above average. Last year he had +10 DRS, 10 UZR, and 6 range runs above average. He has only ever once really rated as a bad defender in the outfield.
Harpers career OPS+ is 137, how is that not production? Thats 18 points higher than Machados. Harper needs four more seasons of his career averages and he is absolutely a Hall of Famer.
Okay, but remove 2015 and 2017 and what does Harper look like? That is the problem with him. His stats are completely dependent on those 2 seasons. Without them he’s a roughly 125 OPS+ guy year in and year out. Very good, yes. HOF worthy as a Corner OutFielder, no
Guess what darkstar you can’t remove those seasons. They happened and it counts. If you remove his two best seasons he is only 25 points above average? What a reach. The Harper hate is downright comical. There is no problem with him. Every single year he produces. You should have to take a lap for comparing him to Jason Bay
Ok, then you have to take out Machado’s 2016 and 2018 seasons if we’re judging it that way.
Grow up, reality isn’t hate.
Outside those two fluke seasons he hasn’t had a single OPS+ over 133, and it was just 125 last year. Add in shakey Def and that is not a HOF caliper Corner OFer. Since numbers like that make up 75% of his career to this point, and will likely be his numbers moving into the future, he is just unlikely going to be a HOF candidate. Two fluke years does not a HOFer make
And as far as Bay;
.280/.376/.519/.896 131 OPS+
from age 24-30, with an OPS+ under 132 only 1 time in that span
.265/.386/.507/.893 131 OPS+
last 4 seasons, with an OPS+ topping 133 only 1 time
Harper needs to count his fluke 2017 season into the averages to even become Jason Bay. Most of the time Harper hasnt been nearly as good as Bay consistently was.
He just isnt that great at all when you really look at his numbers outside the 2 seasons, and you all are lying to yourselves to try to believe he is. Jason Bay was a consistently better hitter, and was better most individual seasons. That really says it all to be honest
If its not hate, its flat out stupidity. You don’t get to eliminate 1,281 ABs from his HOF case. I don’t care how you personally feel about him but when judging if he is a HOF or not his two best seasons absolutely count. And of course it was a fluke season since no one could maintain an OPS + near 200 unless your name is Mike Trout. He has large sample sizes of ab’s in 8 seasons so the idea that his 2 best years are holding together his stats is a pathetic argument. Whats even more pathetic is your Jason Bay argument. Harper is only 619 ab’s away from Jason Bay’s whole career ab’s. I love how you take out Harper’s 2 best seasons and are comparing them to Bay, without taking out Bay’s 2 best seasons. What a weird hill to die on. The only one lying to yourself is you looking at Harpers career numbers and thinking anything other than a perennial all star and one of the best players of the decade and making strange rationals as to why the guy who is significantly better than league average year after year is ‘not great at all’
Look, rant all you want, but it’s still meaningless rants. Harper is not that great of a hitter, period. He has 2 fluke seasons, but has otherwise been only decent to pretty good the rest of his career. You do not get into the HOF by being decent to pretty good for all but 2 years in your entire career; you get in by being phenomenal for a 5-10 year stretch out of a long, productive career
And again with your Jason Bay denial? Fine, their individual season OPS+ for their first 8 seasons;
198 – Harper 2015
156 – Harper 2017
150 – Bay 2005
145 – Bay 2003
138 – Bay 2006
134 – Bay 2008
134 – Bay 2009
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
132 – Bay 2004
125 – Harper 2019
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
98 – Bay 2007
So 5 of the top 7 spots go to Bay, 6 of the bottom 8 Harper takes
Yes, Harper had two fluke seasons that are at the top, but Bay was a consistently better hitter otherwise. When Harper can not touch a normal season from Bay in 6 of his 8 years…
Reality is, Harper has been a mediocre “star” in 6 of his 8 seasons, and played like a HOFer in 2. That’s not hate or whatever silliness you want to throw around in your rants, that is solely reality
And I just want to point out that I dont even like Bay, he just happens to be the guy Harper reminds me so much of; that Bay was better with the bat most all years isnt important to me at all, but it’s true
You are so deranged that you had to post this twice. Use your eyes, I was replying to another comment down below that was not yours. You can’t even comprehend I was replying to someone else. Spots 4-9 on that list are separated by 6 points so to act like that is some big deal is comical. I know its hard for you to critically think so let me spell it out for you. You are citing Bay’s entire prime and comparing it to Harpers which is a pathetic attempt at a comparison. If anything it shows how good Harper is since he has already done better (yes 2015 and 2017 count bozo) than the prime of a decent player and he still has TWELVE years left on his contract. If Jason Bay had a longer prime by about 6 years he would be a HoF. Harper has another decade to build on his stats that will absolutely destroy Bay’s numbers when it is all said and done. You are a joke that has no clue how to evaluate stats. Even if we give your pathetic ‘take his 2 best seasons away’ argument merit a 133 OPS+ 2 times and 125 is mediocre???? You need to re evaluate what mediocre is, because in baseball thats an all star level player.
Oh man I just realized you listed a season where Bay played 30 games and had 87 at bats. And your seriously trying to tell me a season where Harper had 654 and 492 ab’s doesn’t count. Your argument is the biggest clownshow i have seen on here and built on sand. ”Harpers numbers don’t match up well vs Bay” ……even though he has the 2 best seasons on that list and a season that beats Bay’s best by 48 points. You actually thought putting together that list of seasons and trying to sneak a 30 game sample size in there helped your point LOL.
“Spots 4-9 on that list are separated by 6 points”
Not surprisingly, 4 of those 6 spots belong to Bay, as does spot 10 under, and 3 above, your cutoff.
And when you have to desperately try and dance around the edges to claim your boy is even as good as Jason Bay, you’ve already lost
I might add too, that is a comparison you laughed off to start with, but in absolute desperation to protect your boy, have hysterically now changed your tune completely to somehow claim Bay was also a surefire HOFer if injuries didnt catch up to him. Too bad you’re so blinded by your cult like devotion to your mancrush that you can’t even recognize all that squirming and changing you’re doing to keep up with the argument only proves you’ve already lost oh so long ago
And yes, I know full well who you were replying to below – however, those simple stats are so destructive to your whole “surefire HOF” rants that I figured why not make your rant look as foolish as it is down there too? You’ll rant and rant anyway, so let’s just put those stats around a couple places to keep your silliness highlighted, you know?
My advice, pick a better horse – the one you chose just isnt anywhere near what you claim he is. And again, that’s not hate speaking, it’s merely factual reality anyone can see with their own two eyes if they bother looking.
You clearly have some sort of vendetta or grudge against Harper. I don’t care about the Nationals, Harper or the Phillies. My team is in the NL west and my opinion is completely unbiased. You on the other hand think anyone who defends him means he is ”your boy” or a ”mancrush”. Just further proves your out to get him and have an obsession with tarnishing him in any way possible. I love how you try and erase 2 seasons of Harper’s career away and bring up a season where Bay played 30 games to help your argument yet im the one dancing around. Its a factual reality Bay was better despite the 2 best seasons on that list coming from Harper??? Your whole argument is Bay was more consistent yet the majority of his consistent years are barley separated to Harpers 2nd tier of seasons. How about you go ask Mets how good was Jason Bay. But this is all a dumb argument anyway because Harper still has 12 years to go and already has a better career than bay did. Its honestly so simple. A player with an 8 year sample size and a career OPS+ of 137 is on track to be a Hall of Famer. 2015 and 2017 exist. Those are facts and stats etched into his resume. Once again your the one dancing around to try and say that over 1,000 ab’s simply dont count because they were a fluke. You’re argument is so pathetic its sad.
Imagine thinking a 12 year peak of 7,000 AB’s with an OPS+ in the 130’s range is not a hall of famer. He needs 4 more seasons of his career averages to get there (which is exactly what I said from the beginning needs to happen to get him in). You can’t even argue those are not hall of famers and you know its true when your only attempt to do so is to eliminate his 2 best seasons. I hate to break it to you but the writers won’t do that.
Oh look, not surprisingly, you ranted some more…
So I’m not going to bother reading that though, and instead have only come back because I randomly stumbled upon another great comparison for your mancrush
198 – Harper 2015
160 – Edmonds 2003
158 – Edmonds 2002
156 – Harper 2017
149 – Edmonds 2001
147 – Edmonds 2000
137 – Edmonds 1996
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
129 – Edmonds 1995
125 – Harper 2019
123 – Edmonds 1997
123 – Edmonds 1998
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
That is Harper up against the first 8 full seasons (1999 Edmonds was hurt) of a defensive minded CFer – except Harper is a rather pure bat corner outfielder. Too bad for him
And that doesn’t include Edmonds’ best season (171 in 2004) or another that would place 8th here (137 in 2005)
And Jim Edmonds has fallen off the HOF ballot as of 2016
Again, Harper is just not anywhere near as special as you obsessively insist he is. So rant all you want, but reality is still reality – and reality says he’s just not that different than countless others that have come before him. “Hall Of Very Good” yes, but not HOF without some dramatic improvement over the next 5 or so years
Take out Yelich’s 2018 and 2019 and what do you have? What a stupid comment.
Ah the classic ‘im not going to read your argument’ and its clear at this point you don’t even understand it. You’re completely oblivious to the biggest factor here. Age. Harper was in the bigs at 19 so a 12 year peak gives him plenty of additional years to pad his case even if his numbers take a dip. Bays entire prime was 7 years. Edmonds had 12 good years but didn’t have the additional years Harper will. Edmonds played 16 years while Harpers contract will end him at 20 and has a chance to go beyond that as he won’t even be 40 when his contract expires. Its also funny how you bring up Edmonds like he didn’t play in the middle of the steroid era. I don’t agree with it, but even clean players from that era get a negative stigma when it comes to HoF votes. Im a Dodger fan that couldn’t care less about Harper but sure ‘fanboy’. I would make the exact same argument for Yelich or Betts. But hey that’s not exciting since the thought of those players don’t make you want to punch a wall like Harper does. Funny thing is Yelich has the exact same career OPS+ and Mookie’s is actually 3 points worse. You want to argue them too??? But but but im just a HaRpEr FaNBoy….. Sure add Mookie and Yelich to the list too.
You continued to rant? Shocking
I’ll take it to mean you want yet another comparison though? (Again, first 8 seasons, ranked by OPS+)
198 – Harper 2015
158 – Justice 1997
156 – Harper 2017
147 – Justice 1994
143 – Justice 1990
140 – Justice 1991
137 – Justice 1996
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
131 – Justice 1993
125 – Harper 2019
121 – Justice 1992
118 – Justice 1995
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
Just like with Bay and Edmonds, Bryce Harper is no better than David Justice was. This time, Justice took 5 of the top 7
Want yet another?
198 – Harper 2015
165 – Salmon 1994
156 – Harper 2017
143 – Salmon 1993
142 – Salmon 1998
135 – Salmon 2000
134 – Salmon 1997
133 – Salmon 1994
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
125 – Salmon 1996
125 – Harper 2019
119 – Salmon 1999
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
Tim Salmon takes the same 5 of the top 7
Want yet another?
198 – Harper 2015
175 – Clark 1989
160 – Clark 1988
156 – Harper 2017
153 – Clark 1991
152 – Clark 1987
148 – Clark 1992
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
125 – Harper 2019
125 – Clark 1990
121 – Clark 1986
118 – Clark 1993
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
Will Clark, like all the others, takes 5 of the top 7 spots, including number 2 and 3, and came really close to 4 on two occasions
Another?
198 – Harper 2015
163 – Berkman 2006
161 – Berkman 2001
160 – Berkman 2004
160 – Berkman 2008
156 – Harper 2017
150 – Berkman 2002
143 – Berkman 2005
138 – Berkman 2003
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
130 – Berkman 2000
130 – Berkman 2007
125 – Harper 2019
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
So Lance Berkman actually takes 7 of the top 9 spots, and 4 of the top 5. Berkman also played for 15 years and has a dramatically higher career line (LB is 144 career OPS+, BH is at 137 and that has been falling) so Berkman was a much better hitter, and he fell off the HOF ballit in 2019
It’s truly amazing how mediocre of a star Harper really is when you start actually looking at his individual seasons.
But the “Hall Of Very Good” is absolutely lined with these type guys, which is why it is so easy for me to continue to drop equal to better hitters than Harper with no real effort
I get he is comparable to other guys you’ve mentioned, but you’re not bringing up his defense and base running. He’s been a solid defender in the outfield with only one real season where he was well below average. Overall he has a career +11 DRS, and 1.8 UZR/150, and his defense is on the upward trend after last year. He also has 10.4 base running runs above average.
Bryce Harper, Christan Yelich and Mookie Betts are better than ALL of those players. LOL. Its actually funny how much time your wasting and think scattering OPS+ from ALL STEROID ERA players proves your point.
If only Edmonds played on the east coast…. didn’t realize his offensive profile was so close to Harper’s, but Jim brought a glove and Harper doesn’t.
Edmonds didnt actually surprise me much, I knew before checking he was a beast with the bat. He thankfully got some more attention after the move to StL, but yes, he deserved so much more because of that glove that came with it
Too bad the Angels couldn’t capitalize on that profile when deciding to trade him
But the one that truly shocked me was Tim Salmon! I guess I, like so many, just took him for granted the whole time. Salmon stacks up unbelievably well to Harper though, and I can only imagine how much more attention he would have gotten had he played on the East. Criminally underrated, and solely because he was an Angel his whole career
When you have Pujols and Rolen hitting on both sides of you, it makes it much easier to put up numbers. Edmonds was good, but he isn’t a HOF. Shared almost all his GG with Andruw Jones back when GG weren’t awarded by position. Didn’t hit the 2000 hit mark or the 400 HR club.
No, Edmonds was not a HOFer in my mind either – none of these guys (including Harper) are though, and that was the point
But as far as Edmonds;
132 OPS+, a .276/.342/.527/.903 line, over 17 seasons
Andrew Jones;
111 OPS+, a .254/.337/.486/.823 line, over 17 seasons
Edmonds was a dramatically better hitter than Jones (+75 OPS, +20 OPS+) and was comparable with the glove. His sole issue was he could not always stay healthy (2011 Games and 7980 PA, to Jones at 2196 and 8664)
But tack on those extra 180 missing games and all of a sudden Edmonds actually has a dramatically better argument for the Hall than Jones does
East Coast bias is very real. It heavily inflates guys like Jones and Harper, while usually ignoring countless others that are just as good, to even much better.
Id take Harper’s chances over Machado but saying that Harpers going to lock up a place in Cooperstown by the time hes 31 is just Nutz!
Hes close to becoming a negative in the field, hasnt had a 5 War season since 2015 and hes heading to Cooperstown with a couple more 4 war seasons?
I dont think so, if Harper gets in he will have to play well until hes at LEAST 36/37 and then tack on a couple stats in some later years- No golden path is set for Harper, he will have to earn it just like every other player did…..
31…..No rings……1 MVP…streets of Gold paved to the hall…. Must be nice
First of all WAR and Hall of Fame don’t mix. Thank the writers and veterans committee for that. Second I don’t think you have any idea how the Hall of Fame works. Its about your peak and once you hit a large enough sample size the rest is irrelevant. History says you need an elite peak of 7 years to get into the hall and I made it 12 for Harper. You said he needs to play well for 18 years….please stop embarrassing yourself. The majority of HoFers don’t have an 18 year sample size of greatness. No one is giving Harper a golden paved path, in reality you and the other weirdos are instead building a 50 ft wall of nonequivalent standards compared to other HoFers. If he hits his career averages, he will have 7,000 ab’s four years down the road. If his career OPS+ is anywhere near where it is now after 7,000 ab’s thats a hall of famer and thinking otherwise is flat out stupid. Its not a ‘golden path’ and he has earned his equity with the incredible numbers he put up in the first 8 years of his career. There are plenty of players in the hall who never won an MVP and rings??? You just keep embarrassing yourself. He had a god like season on a team with prime Scherzer and the Nats still missed the playoffs. Rings are out of any individuals control.
So you ranted down here too?
Well here, I’ll just remind you once again that Harper is not anything close to what you are talking yourself into believing he is…
198 – Harper 2015
156 – Harper 2017
150 – Bay 2005
145 – Bay 2003
138 – Bay 2006
134 – Bay 2008
134 – Bay 2009
133 – Harper 2013
133 – Harper 2018
132 – Bay 2004
125 – Harper 2019
118 – Harper 2012
114 – Harper 2016
111 – Harper 2014
Your surefire HOFer you’re dying on the hill of sure doesnt match up very well against a merely average star like Jason Bay, does he?
So maybe it’s time you allowed a little reality into your world; Harper is nothing like whatever god you’ve concocted in your mind. Hes in the “Hall Of Very Good”, and not close to the HOF at this point
So his peak is two 5 War seasons in 9 years and thats good enough for he Hall..?
When exactly was the peak? Is it now?
Building a wall? Hes 27… sounds a lot more like your trying to serenade the guy. Get a Grip, this guys not even a top 10 player in baseball right now at 27 and you want to put him in the hall at 31..
Nice Moonwalk with the Jason Bay being a HOF’er as well. I enjoyed that mid way thru
Nothing more than a fanboy, like Darkstar said, Pick a better horse
His WAR in 2015 was a lot higher than 5 and again, WAR and HoF don’t mix thanks to the writers and veterans committee. Whats up with your weird obsession with Bay?? I never changed any opinion about him. I said his peak was not long enough, where did that conflict with anything I said LMAO. Yall are reaching so bad its hilarious. He wasn’t as good as Harper, which is a fact. I’m actually a Dodgers fan (and a much smarter one than you who spent time bashing Machados time here like he was Josh Reddick) so your both pathetic with the ”fanboy” comments. Just further shows you’re arguments are built on sand that you have to resort to calling anyone who dare defend an elite player a fanboy. What a weird hill to die on, pretending the guy who always as an OPS+ well over 100 stinks.
Bryce Harper – no better of a hitter than Jason Bay, Jim Edmonds, David Justice, Tim Salmon, Will Clark, and countless others, plus a much worse hitter than non-HOFers like Lance Berkman …but still a surefire HOFer because this guy ranted it so
Honestly, give it up man. Reality just isn’t on your side on this one in the slightest.
Hmm so today your moving the goalposts to we think Harper stinks huh…
I thought the argument was paving his way to the Hall before his 32nd B-Day…Interesting
Just take the L AFK….It looks like the fox got into the hen house here and your making it worse every post you make-
Darkstar – Truly nice info……. I didnt know Edmonds was that great, just looked into Salmons numbers last week and was startled as well….Playing in ANa all those years really hid how good of players they were
No problem man
But yes, imagine the looks you’d get from the East Coast crowd if you told them Tim Salmon was actually a better, more consistent hitter over his first full 8 seasons than Bryce Harper has been. They’d laugh you off the stage – except…
.291/.394/.627/.921, 136 OPS+ – Salmon
.276/.385/.512/.897, 137 OPS+ – Harper
And Salmon didnt need a fluke 198 OPS+ season thrown in to get to those overall averages. Discount the fluke and Harper is nearly blown away by Salmon. Harper is overrated, but Salmon is criminally underrated as well.
Btw, go Grover! (I assume that is who your nickname refers too, as it was his nickname as well. But if not, look videos of him from the 80s up!)
The article here a week ago just enlightened me a bit more on Salmon, not gonna lie I was shocked.
I always hated the Angels, for no more petty of a reason than I couldnt stand listening to their announcer on broadcast games here in Socal.
Guy would put you in a coma by the 2nd inn-
Just to further explore how crazy Harper > Edmonds was, was Jimmy was nothing but a Fckn Wizard with the glove as we all know
Yea became a fan of him when he was a manager, his playing days date me by about a decade- Those 90′ Indians team were just insane, people who think the Braves were the losers of the 90’s really need to dive into the Indians Four of them are already in the Hall of Fame (Eddie Murray, Dave Winfield Thome and Roberto Alomar), and at least two were headed there but got sidetracked by health or other issues (Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez). Then you have Omar Visquel Justice as well
They had future managers (Dave Roberts, John Farrell, Bud Black and Torey Lovullo), others who could be managers (Vizquel and Sandy Alomar) and a future general manager (Ruben Amaro). The front office spun off executives who would make it big elsewhere (Dan O’Dowd, Josh Byrnes, Paul DePodesta, Ben Cherington and Neal Huntington), and the coaching staff spun off future managers (Buddy Bell and Charlie Manuel).
They were my AL team growing up errr
On ofc Sandy Alomar as well, the smoothest catcher you will ever see…Kenny Lofton… the list just goes on
It’s not just those players you mentioned that came out of those Cleveland teams either, amazingly
There is the forgotten one, Baerga, the ageless ones, Franco and Baines making appearances. Had Travis Fryman holding down Third. Then future standout guys like Jeff Kent and Dave Roberts making early career runs through the club. Plus endless then-names making stops like Vizciano, Tony Fernandez, Pat Borders, David Segui, Hittin’ Whitten, Kevin Mitchell, and I’m sure many more I’m forgetting
Then they also had future stars like Sean Casey, and Brian Giles, and Richie Sexson, and Danny Graves, and Steve Klune, and more in their minor leagues, before trading them to improve their playoff odds.
And you completely skipped the weaker half of their club, the pitching, which only featured a rotation of Hershiser, and Dennis Martinez, and Bartolo Colon, and the unheralded Charles Nagy, and Vhuck Finley, and Blackjack McDowell. Plus there were the bigtime relievers like Jose Mesa, and Julian Tavarez, and Eric Plunk, and Paul Assenmacher (or however you spell it) and Paul Shuey, and Mike Jackson, and on and on
You also skipped Bell’s brother, David, who came up with that eras club and now manages the Reds
Yes, I too remember those clubs. Quite well, obviously. Impressive doesn’t even begin to say it. And easily about the best dynasty you’ll ever see to not win it all.
But you were not a fan of the slow lulling of Physioc, or the nonsensical hyperbole from the Wonder Dog, btw? I too grew up watching those teams, in that area, so I too know exactly what you are saying!
Matt Willams made an appearance as well!- Yea I was getting long in the tooth so I cut out lol…Baerga was amazing….
First team to ever throw a parade when they lost the Ws !
I deplore The Hud and Physioc ,it made me hate the Angels….the California Angels announcers were horrid as well, cant remember the names…….. Just remember a 60 yr old Don Sutton out there with his Larry David hair coming out the cap and them announcers making me just want to hate everything baseball…..Luckily Vinny was always just around the bend on the dial and I was saved for life…..
As well in Socal not only did we chose between Dodgers/Angels but as a kid you had the whole TBS Braves vs WGN Cubs to chose from( Channell 16 and 17)…….I again chose by announcer in the great Steve Stone Harrey Caray combo over the Braves snooze fest ! I never realized Harry was just getting smashed the whole time till later, good times
90’s had so much day time baseball , seemed they would time the Cubs Braves out for when kids got home from school back then- I wonder if bringing some more back now would help increase the young base
Although not as prominent as the two, there was actually one more for a time; WOR.
There you could catch Ralph Kiner and Tim McCarver calling Mets games. That’s the one I always wanted to watch most, when not watching the Dodgers. Carey drove me nuts, to the point I’d just as soon hear Hudler to be honest. Did watch a ton of those Sandberg/Dawson/Grace/Dunston/etc era games though
Did Pittsburgh even have a station too for a while? I so distinctly remember watching so many 1990 era Pirates games, I kind of question if they may have. Could have just been seeing them on all the other NL broadcasts though, I guess
Btw, mentioning the name sparked a memory; Dunston might have stopped by those Indians clubs as well.
Yes, Matt Williams was there. If I remember correctly, he was actually the return for Jeff Kent from SanFran, and was then flipped a year later for Fryman. (That was to Detroit? Williams never played there though, I dont think. 3rd team involved maybe? Wow, old memories are getting harder)
Yes, a return to more local and basic cable broadcasts would dramatically increase fan support, especially among kids. The cable deals, while keeping the clubs afloat in the short term, are killing the game for the long run, imo. Many of us are fans today solely because we always had baseball on, especially in the LA area, where we could often choose between the Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Braves and Mets. Now, good luck finding a single game for many of kids…
Hmm I never got WOR or the Mets
Yea Caray wasnt great but Stone was –
I just loved that atmosphere they had out there in those day games.(The Golden age/local to buy a Gameday Ticket) Some just wild wild day games and nobody ever really seemed to care what the scoreboard said when the game was over – It brought an illusion of fun to a young set of eyes that I just dont see today in the game-
On any given day you could watch Maddux pitch a masterpiece, watch Ryno try and mount a comeback in the 9th all before Vin starts his pre-game show for your home team watch –
I get that theres MLB package these days but are kids going out of their way to haggle for that with their parents?
I do have great fear of getting lost in the shuffle moving forward though as a sport for many reasons, your last paragraph being high up on the list
Odd, I most definitely had the Mets up until around, I dont know, maybe 92. Could have been later even. I do remember watching a lot of Turk Wendell continuing his Cubs antics while in NY, so might have even been as late as late 90s it was still available. Mostly I remember those Strawberry & Gooden clubs of the mid 80s though. Talk about a constant atmosphere – in that case, it was often a beyond wild party …oh, why’d you let yourself come to this, Nails
As far as the game itself, sadly, I already see it near a place not that unlike Hockey fell to around that time we’re talking about. It was still popular-ish, especially because of the Great One and popularizing of rollerblades and hockeyballs making everyone want to play it in the streets, but when it went on strike a couple times, did anyone really even notice?
People talk about the devastation the Baseball strike brought, but it never seemed like popularity waivered – people were upset because they cared in the first place, and were so happy to have the game back. Hickey though, it just seemed like it never truly came back from it’s strikes. I fear that is where baseball will be if there is another, or worse yet, right now already because of the virus
Hell 50% of Los Angeles residents had to jump thru hoops just to watch their own Dodgers last year, its crazy
I think in all honesty roller hockey/rollerblades kept Hockey relevant for another 6-10 years- You just cant afford to have your kid play ice hockey for typical American families (Time/travel/money)
Once that flew the coup it was over – They did have better names though like Gretsky Lemueix Messier Roy etc and NHLPA 93 was one of the best video games ever
It is an a good analogy , albeit scary
I don’t really remember seeing much rollerhockey past around 95-97, but yes, it could have been a bit longer, as you say. Without that game tho, do you think anyone would have cared much about Hockey, especially post their 2 strikes? The second (which was right around that 95 year, I believe) really just seemed to have killed the sports reach completely, as far as what I was seeing.
Funny you brought up video games. Just the other day I was reading something insane that pointed out there were something like 18 different baseball video games produced over just a two year span, between I think 1998-99. 18 video games! There are now, what, 2? And one is only available on Playstation? Talk about a fall from grace – if your sport goes from sustaining 18 different game releases over a 2 year span, to just 2 a year during a pretty peak video game period 20 years later? Well, your game is likely in trouble in that instance.
I hope the game is okay moving forward. But everything I’ve said, plus all the changes Manfred is pushing so hard for, leaves me seriously doubting it. 10 years from now, I wouldn’t be very surprised if Baseball was little more than a niche taste, much as I consider Hockey today.
Would be interesting to see how many people under the age of around 25 have actually sat down and watched a whole baseball game that they remember. That result right there would likely tell us exactly how the game will look 10-20 years from now …and I have a feeling the number is not very large, tragically
Yea Roller hockey was mostly dead by 96….was meaning I think it dies out late 80’s if it didnt come around-
Roller hockey had a great great run 90-95 though, Im sure the 95 strike had a big effect on that as well leaving and the arrival of the internet
I quit video games at Sega/Super NIN so cant speak to the market but thats pretty interesting. Even kids who didnt like hockey use to enjoy the game play of 93 NHLPA….ofc there were not that many games to chose from back then and most MLB games were cringy. ( sans RBI baseball for Og NIN ofc)
Yeah, roller hockey was huge. (And perfectly immortalized in Cerks!) It had to have helped that sport so much. I knew multiple kids that wanted to go to Kings (and later, Ducks) games solely because they enjoyed playing it, and I cant be alone in that.
Video games also help a ton, I think. Getting to experience the play yourself, you find new appreciation. Plus playing with different players means you build a connection to those players, and will likely enjoy seeing them in real life.
Baseball really needs to figure some things out, and fast. Manfreds ideas are going to hurt longterm fandom, not help it.
Like Bauer said, why doesnt the game have a much larger social media reach, considering how many players come from all over the globe? That is another area the game seems to be ignoring, instead putting everything behind paywalls.
I weep
Don’t forget that Machado played in a very hitter friendly stadium. Let’s see how he does the next few years.
Can’t fault Pittsburgh for taking the top arm in the class, but at the expense of a highly touted shortstop who has gone on to such success is tough.
Each had some risk attached to him. I’m fine with the Taillon pick since their farm system had ZERO pitching at the time. It’s sad and unfortunate he’s been injured so much. I hope to see him come back soon
I mean you could when you consider that they could have had Sale instead.
Good point. I’m not a huge prospect follower but remembered Taillon being highly touted.
Harper is borderline, Machado got paid and he doesn’t even play at all star caliber let alone the hall
I like Taillon and understand he’s had incredible bad luck with cancer and now arm injuries but man the Pirates need to start bringing guys along quicker. Most of these others signed FA contracts and feel like veterans and Taillon is just moving into arbitration. By the time their prospects get up to the majors, they’re already in their mid 20’s, what’s the point?
You can’t really say the last part about the astros they did draft Mike Foltynewicz but traded him to the braves
Turning down 2 million and then never getting anything close to that, whitson got some real bad advicd
Folty sucks, not sure why he’s included in that group.
(This will be LOOOOONG!!! You’ve been warned)
Suppose a mystery player had a 15 year career and finished with the following stats.
Hits 2,235 (–)
HR 525 (20)
RBI 1,710 (21)
RUNS 1,470 (–)
TB 4,380 (59)
WAR 64.5 (142)
I chose these stats because they are among the most critical stats that are looked at for the HOF. Sabremetrics are starting to break in but there is still a lot of emphasis on classical stats. So for this hypothetical player the third column includes where he falls on the all time leaderboard. His Runs scored and Hits don’t really even put him in shouting distance of the top 50 so I didn’t include it but they are still respectable.
The WAR I included and if his all-time rank seems way to low, it’s ahead of the following HOFers;
Roy Halladay
Dave Winfield
Mike Piazza
Willy Stargel
And there are several more as well. Just thought I would show you the class of player this person associates with.
So..would YOU elect this player to the hall of fame? If you say yes than I think you may have just elected Bryce Harper.
The career numbers for my hypothetical player is Harper’s 2019 season 15 times.
Going to anticipate some rebuttals.
“There is no way Harper will keep producing seasons with .882 OPS and 4.3 WAR.”
Of course he won’t. He already hasn’t. He’s had seasons where he has done better and worse. But given his last 3 years production and his young age, it doesn’t seem so crazy to project at least the next 3 or 4 years at a similar rate and use 2019 as a median point for a 15 year career average rate.
“You can’t use a 114 RBI Career high as a median point!”
Well..ya, probably not. Especially since he would have to knock in well above 114 RBI’s every season going forward for quite a few years. So yes this is the fly in my ointment. However, his first two seasons with the Phillies are his first and second best season RBI totals so it seems reasonable to say that though he PROBABLY won’t average 114 RBI’s going forward, he probably also won’t be to far behind that. Nobody can say the difference in RBI production is because the Nationals batted him high in the order. I’ve already sifted through all the splits and the Nationals used him almost exclusively in the 3 and 4 spot.
At this point, who knows what could happen. I would say Harper is on an HOF trajectory. He could get injured, regress earlier than most expect or he might be a little better too and even play for 20 years instead of 15 which would help pad the total numbers above or just create margin for error.
But Right now..his trajectory looks like the hall of fame.
Mentioning any player as a HOF before their career is over is absolutely ridiculous.
So we can’t say Miggy and Pujols are future HoFers now then?
I remember 20 plus years ago people saying Clemens and Bonds were slam dunk HOF. How did that end?
If I knew you, I’d offer you 5-1 odds that Pujols makes the HOF, for almost any amount of money. The only way he doesn’t make the HOF is if he tests positive for PEDs, or has a major felony.
Pujols has played 19 years. Harper 8. Let the guy finish his career before HOF discussion. Lincecum, after 2 CYA, was all the rave about his possible HOF credentials, then nothing. My entire narrative about the HOF is this. If a player needs to be debated whether he belongs in the HOF or not, then I’m against him in the HOF. It waters it down. I want to see it tougher to get in. When you see guys like Griffey, Pujols, Mays, Musial, Aaron etc., you see greatness. I don’t see greatness in Harper, Machado or Molina. They are in the hall of very good with the Holliday’s and Dale Murphy’s of baseball.
I think Pujols, Miggy, Kershaw, Verlander, and Grienke are all probably sure fire hall of famers. Throw Trout, Yadi and possibly Cano in too.
probably no HoFers, but certainly at least three busts.
From that list Delino DeShields is the only lock. Harper might be voted in by the veteran’s committee
Pomeranz ………. had an awful time in Boston
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I was hoping for a little more, but his record in Boston was:
22-17, 4.24 ERA, 106 ERA+ in 2+ seasons. Fairly mediocre overall, but nowhere close to awful.
IRT Machado & Harper, I’d give Harper the edge at this point. Machado had a weakish season in 2019. He needs a few more 5+ WAR seasons. Harper also has 6 ASGs, and 1 MVP, against Machado’s 4 ASGs. And I think that, while neither strike me as all-in type of players, I think Harper will play harder for longer. And Harper has a pretty decent advantage playing in Philly instead of SD.
The one that stands out in my mind, was the one taken in the fifth round, Mookie Betts.. time will tell
I think this comment section really enforces the idea that Bryce Harper is underrated by the amount of people who think he is overrated. Harper is a career .276/.385/.512 hitter with a 137 OPS+, and 31.8 bWAR. He has averaged about as much bWAR per season as Chipper Jones did through his age 26 season. If he can keep up a 4.5 bWAR pace for the next 8 or so seasons, he would be on par with guys like Ivan Rodriguez, Ernie Banks and Roberto Alomar. And that would only be through his age 34 season. Realistically, he could reach 80+ bWAR by the end of his career.
Hadn’t bothered to come down in the thread before now, and most arent even worth commenting on
…but this one is especially a head scratcher!
He has had a bWAR over 4.5 exactly once the last 4 seasons, his fluke 2017. The other 3 are 1.5, 1.5 and 4.3.
How in the world do you come up with a 4.5 pace?
He’s pacing around 3 bWAR, not 4.5. And that’s only when we include the fluke hitting 2017. Without it, instead taking merely his normal 125 range OPS+ seasons, he is averaging a 2.4 bWAR.
He carries a 2.4 bWAR moving forward and it means he would need 21 more seasons of his recent, normal season rate moving forward to even reach your goal, not 8. Twenty-One.
He’d have to be playing at his normal, current pace until he was 48 years old
So all I can really say is keep reaching, I guess, because this one fell apart basically instantly
We are so happy that you “bothered to come down”, almighty great one
Christian Colon, Cal State Fullerton Titans!
That explains a lot, actually.
If Harper is “worth” $330M, how much are Acuna and Soto valued at?
Harper is a HOFer, lock it up!