Theo Epstein has been prepping the Chicago fanbase for the eventual breakup of their 2016 team for a couple of seasons now. The blockbuster hasn’t come, and most of the faces of that championship team remain. After a disappointing exit from the wild card round – they managed just one run over a two-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins – Epstein’s comments again suggest changes are coming for the Cubbies.
Nine players remain on the roster from their World Series winner, and while that may not seem like a lot, it does constitute roughly 35% of a 26-man roster. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and Kyle Schwarber represent the longest-tenured group of Chicago players. Technically, manager David Ross can count as a 10th member of their title team still hanging around the clubhouse. Ian Happ and Victor Caratini didn’t debut until 2017. Jose Quintana joined the team at the 2017 deadline. Yu Darvish signed as a free agent prior to the 2018 season.
The pillars of this Cubs’ run will dwindle further in the coming years. Architect Theo Epstein is likely to depart after next season. Lester is a free agent this winter. Almora seems to be out of chances and in need of a change of scenery. Odds favor Heyward or Hendricks to be the “last man standing” as they both have contracts that should keep them in Wrigley through 2023. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber are each entering the final year of their contracts – assuming the Cubs pick up Rizzo’s $16.5MM option.
Epstein spoke about the latter group, providing typically candid analysis of not only the Cubs foursome, but more broadly about the value of one-year contracts. Per the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Epstein said:
I think there are going to be certain fundamentals that are true of this winter and of this market that have been true for decades. One of those is especially relevant in our situation, a one-year deal for a really talented player is a valuable thing. That’s to our benefit both to what we can do in constructing the 2021 team and having an additional year of control on certain players and also potentially to our benefit in the trade market as we look to make some changes. I think that’s a fundamental.”
Essentially, it sounds as if Epstein’s offering a ’fear not’ for those who think the Cubs have waited too long to return anything of value for the final year of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and/or Schwarber. To Epstein’s point, players on one-year deals are often devalued in the public square, but there’s a lot that can be extracted from a full year. Further, the flexibility a one-year deal affords shouldn’t be discounted – perhaps especially in our current climate. The fear of losing talent to free agency is understandable, but the more difficult gaff to overcome is the presence of “the albatross,” a highly-paid player on a long-term deal who no longer contributes on the diamond. Baez’s confounding 2020 is a testament to the swings that even talented players can experience year-over-year.
The trouble for Epstein is that Chicago’s current roster is flush with semi-expensive players on short-term deals who are coming off disappointing seasons. But to Epstein’s point – those players are still valuable. Whether the Cubs keep them or trade them, there’s always an opportunity cost. Said Epstein, per Sahadev:
There’s always a trade-off of being transactional and taking some of those players away from the current group and solidifying the future. There are trade-offs and balances that you have to be mindful of. The math simply changes as you get to a point where a lot of your best players only have one year left. It becomes less appealing to continue to invest opportunity cost in simply the present.”
Epstein has hit on a similar refrain in each of the last couple of years, and some changes have been made. They hired David Ross as the manager, they refrained from big-money free agent deals since signing Darvish (with the exception of Craig Kimbrel, who has only one more guaranteed season left on his deal), and they poured considerable energy into exploring trade options and/or extensions for their stars – but they haven’t made any of those deals.
Therein lies the rub for Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer. After years of exploring their options and walking the difficult path to try and sustain contention, they’re running out of time to pull off one of those – in Epstein’s words – “impactful, significant moves.” Whether or not they’re able to consummate that brand of deal this winter may depend on whether the 29 other GMs agree with Epstein about the value of talented players one-year deals.
Of course, Mookie Betts represents the most recent superstar player to be dealt on a one-year deal, and Indians’ shortstop Francisco Lindor is among those players who could be available this winter. Both players are probably more valuable in a vacuum than any of the Cubs’ foursome. Still, the Betts deal is instructive in so far as it necessitated the Red Sox’ willingness to take a step back, even though they received a major league regular as part of their return. The Cubs also have the option of packaging a couple players in the same deal, something he’s done in the past to extract additional prospect value..
Theo Epstein on 1 year deals – “they don’t cost us a lot of money. we opt for the cheaper 1 year deals. not the expensive 1 year deals”.
Did you even read the article?
LoL
Read article again, please.
Great thing for cubs is the demise of every other nl central team. Cards continue decline w no new stars surfacing to replace old retiring players. Mil hit its peak and is now in same place as cubs yet a much worse version. Reds have terrible leadership and are set to loose Bauer.
So cubs might as well keep core together and give it one more shot. Let Bryant get over himself and hope Darvish returns to ace status. They’ll be head and shoulders fav to win division next season.
Definitely a bot type of comment. The division is still wide open so the only thing I can agree with in your post is keeping the Cubs core together one more year.
The Brewers are going to retool. They are getting Brain off the books and Hiura should hopefully take a step forward. The Brewers still have Hader, Knebel, Woodruff and Yelich as cornerstone all star caliber players. The Brewers will always have a smaller payroll and have to draft well to compete, but they seem to do so and will have a little bit of money this offseason to retool.
The Cardinals are in a tougher spot as they still owe decent chunks of money to Fowler, Carpenter and Andrew Miller, who have all underperformed recently. However, they still have top end all star talent in Flaherty, Goldschmidt, Wong, Dejong and hopefully Carlson, as well as a ton of pitching depth that was on display this year. The Cardinals will also be able to allocate some money in retooling this year by either letting Molina walk if he wants a lot of money over the next 2 years, or sign him for less money on 1 year deals like Wainwright. Plus the Cardinals have a new tv deal that kicked in and should get even more revenue and in turn more money on higher caliber players.
The Reds might be in the most difficult spot as they still have a lot of money owed to Votto and a couple others who haven’t performed as expected and they will likely lose Bauer in FA. They still have talent in the rotation and with the offense if some players can get back to their expected performances like Votto, Moustakas and Castellanos, they will continue to be competitive.
All in all, the division will still be a crowded division even if none of the teams are true WA contenders. The Cubs are not far and away the best team in the division, but they should ride this core out one more year. If they don’t think it’s worth it, blow it up now and trade Bryant, Contreras and possibly Schwarber if they don’t think the NL DH is here to stay.
I agree, bot. The division is weak and no one is trying to significantly improve. The Reds could be the exception. They tried hard to improve last off-season. I’ll be surprised if they do as much this year. It’s wide open for the Cubs and I’m a Cards fan!
No new stars on the Cardinals. Yet they keep bring up talent year after year. Never tanking. Finishing last one time in the last 75 years. Always in contention. Went farther than the cubs. Have won more Central Division titles than the rest of the Central teams combine. The cubs on the other hand won one title the last 112 years. They are the joke and loveable losers of MLB and always will be. They play in a rag of a ballpark and have the most arrogant fans of any sports. Can’t stand em!
St Louis fans, “classiest fans in baseball”
And in the history of baseball the Cardinals have still never beaten the Cubs a playoff series.
And furthermore, considering the history of the game—-there is exactly ONE franchise that, as a franchise, has NEVER been below .500. NEVER EVER…..that is the Cubs. Speaking with arrogance—-that is now a 145 seasons and never seen .500. Won the first four, nine of the first ten and never looked back.
Which team has won more Divisions Most NL Championships or Most World Championships? Not even close!!!!!
Yeah, but the team still is in St. Louis.
Same old crapola from themed. Different year.
The Cardinals have won 11 of the 26 NL Central Division titles. So, they have not won more than all the other teams combined. Get your facts straight, old man.
Schwarbs……just think….if the Cardinals swept the season series the next three years with the Cubs…….the Cubs would still have the better all time head to head record. Those Cards are mighty—-just not when it comes to playing the Cubs. Let’s go Cards——run off 60 in a row so you can catch up.
Whose got the most wins head to head since 1920? Yes the cubs were good back before the telephone was invented. After that not so good.
WOW ONLY 11 out of 26 huh? I believe if you take away the Astros titles in the Central then the rest of the current teams in the Central might total as many as the Redbirds.
Why would you take away the Astros’ NL Central titles?
Wrong again. The first practical telephone was patented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1876. That’s the same year the Cubs started playing in the National League.
1920 seems like a convenient starting year for you. Why don’t you research that head-to-head since 1920 for us? Come back with some solid numbers. It will give you something to do while you stew about the Cubs finishing ahead of the Cards for five of the last six seasons.
The Cardinals have won much more than the cubs period. They are the best all time in the Central and The National league. The cubs are wannabes. Still striving to be like the Cardinals. Period! They are better over all. Always have been always will be!
I am not denying that the Cardinals have had more success historically. But that was then and this is now. It doesn’t matter when we are talking about the present and future. Your lame comment above doesn’t add to the conversation and is the same rock-headed stuff that you have spewed in prior comments over and over. We get that you hate the Cubs more than you love the Cardinals by now.
Broglio for Brock!
This common Cubs’ fan goal of winning a weak division and immediately getting bounced out of the playoffs is a dumb goal IMO therefore i disagree. It keeps playing
out! Don’t bring this squad back as we all know the definition of insanity by now…..
They’ll pay up for Baez if he has a return to from next season. Bryant will be gone, likely Schwarber also. I think Rizzo will return if the money is right, he is the face of the franchise. Contreras I don’t think you can let get away, too valuable a bat at the catcher position.
Cubs have an option on Rizzo so the price of a return is already set. 16.5 million option.
I think he means post-2021
Epstein talked change after 2018 and 2019 and brought back basically the “core” guys both times. Time to stop talking and act.
He didn’t really “bring back” the core guys. He didn’t have the option to bring, or not bring them back. They’re under contract. The only viable option was to trade them (they’re out of minor league options, and too valuable to release). And if he can’t get value back in a trade, what’s he supposed to do?
Correct, if you don’t feel you are getting the return you want or expect then don’t trade them. Making trades to make them is not smart business.
Theo and Ricketts were not in the corner a few years ago they’re in now.
Changes have to be made or Ricketts purchase of half of Cook County will potentially break the bank when folks stay away. Face it, the worst year Cubs had since 2015 was 85 wins in 2019. You think they’ll draw much winning 64 games or so in 2022-23? It will be like any day at a ballgame on the south side where beer and hot dog vendors outnumber the fans. Epstein better have some magic dust because he and “Tommy Boy” are going to need it.
Bobbyk I disagree, I lived in north side Chicago last year and unfortunately never got to go to a game because of all the circumstances going on, but people just go to those games like it’s Disneyland out there. The culture around wrigleyville and other parts of town are a bunch of college and post college grads that love an excuse to get wasted and be outside when it’s not freezing cold.. The culture for cubs baseball historically even as losers is so strong they were typically selling as many tickets in their bad years just look at any old game.
The Ricketts bought half of Cook County you say???
I really wouldn’t assume Lester is gone. Is he worth 15 million, no. But 15mil for one year is not out of the question.
Cubs are paying Lester $10 million opt out clause, if Jon gives any type of discount I can see him back with the Cubs on a one year deal. He does not have much left in the tank but would be a excellent mentor for Marquez and Alozlay. while eating some innings.
Honestly I see Lester signing with the Braves to be closer to home this offseason.
Absolutely right with Lester and the Braves.
That’s what I’ve been saying all year. Lester signs a 1yr contract with braves
I can see Lester returning to Boston on a year to year deal to end his playing days in a Boston like Wakefield should he not stay in Chicago.
Why would Boston want an aging Lester given how bad they are and why would Lester want to go back to Boston given how bad they are.
Lester already said he doesn’t see himself in any other uniform than the Cubs. So if he plays in 2021 he’ll be with the Cubs when he’s done he’ll be special assistant to the gm with the cubs.
Not true. Lester recently spoke about returning which is why I mentioned it. As for why, I don’t think he’s through, the team needs depth despite the hoped for return of Sale/Rodriguez and the good showing by TH and the cost should not be bad value. It also gives a little to those that like nostalgia (not important to me).
Forget this year. Had it played out normally, would you realistically expect Hayward to not suck it up at the plate by the time the season ended or Baez, Bryant and Rizzo not stepping up their game in the last 100 games? Problem with the article is the Dodgers clamored to get Mookie who is everything and a more than what Hayward was supposed to be. I’d love Baez, Bryant and Rizzo on my roster for a one year run but not at the expense of mortgaging the farm as none of the three can man the mound every five or six days.
The Cubs are still a very good team. They would have won 90-plus games and finished in 1st in a regular 162 season. Beaz is a guy to keep. Let Lester go.
Cardinals have vey good pitching but an underperforming lineup. Dylan Carlson looks good.
The Reds have a good team, but, like the good Pittsburgh teams of days ago, they can’t seem to “crush it” in the standings, and I bet that carries over into 2021.
The Brewers, meh.
Very good? they were the tallest midget in a brutal division, a division that couldn’t score a single post season run in their 4 elimination games!!!!!!
Bryant’s not happy and wants to get to free agency. The Cubs should trade him for the best return they can.
Not to mention he’s a Boras client and the service time manipulation will make negotiations a million times worse than any Boras negotiations already are.
Negotiations during will not matter unless he’s willing to accept less than what another team offers which is not expected from a Boras client. Whomever offers the most moolah normally gets the Boras’ player.
Not always the case. Boras will do whatever his client feels is best. A good recent example of this is Xander Bogarts. He wanted to stay in Boston, so they agreed to a team friendly extension of 6 years / $120M. Xander could have made more in free agency but he wanted the security over fishing for the most possible money.
He’s also a professional athlete and a former mvp…..cubs couldn’t give him away in offseason. Why would you trade a guy of his caliber at his lowest value ?
Because if the front office can get something back that they believe is better than the compensation pick they will get when he signs elsewhere, which they can, then they should do it.
I personally think they should keep him at least until the deadline to either build value back up and trade him then, or just let him walk if he helps them go deep in the playoffs again. I just can’t see a way the Cubs resign him and the notion of getting something is better than getting nothing has been very prevalent in sports in the last decade.
At this point, one year of Bryant and a compensatory pick would be better than any package of subpar prospects. Contreras is their most valuable trade asset with 2 years of control and much improved defense. That would be a bold move Theo could make. Or maybe even a package with Contreras/Schwarber or Contreras/Bryant. I think everything’s on the table but he won’t give them away for nothing.
I honestly think Contreras is the one piece that absolutely should be moved. They could get a king’a ransom for Contreras and it would be the smallest downgrade of any of their positions to the MLB club due to Caratini being there and being a starting caliber catcher with upside.
Trading Bryant might get them a team’a top 10 prospect that might be fringe 100 overall prospect, which isn’t bad. However, if Bryant stays healthy and gets back to normal next year, his value will skyrocket for contending teams in need of DH or 3B.
Baez is streaky at the plate, but he has shown when he stays disciplined, and doesn’t swing at balls in the dirt like Soriano, he can be an MVP given his already gold glove caliber defense.
Rizzo is the face of the franchise and the glue for the team.
Schwarber is already a key member of the lineup and becomes more important if the NL has the DH going forward.
Trade Contreras now, build up Bryant’s trade value and flip him at the deadline next year, extend Baez and Rizzo and wait on extending Schwarber until negotiations heat up more on the next CBA and it is more known where the NL DH situation is at.
I don’t mind teams tanking, but I don’t think it is called for in this situation. Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber and Bryant all had fairly awful years. That not only depresses their market value, it also gives hope for 2021. The Cubs could easily go from 10th in scoring to top-5.
This is one of the teams that should blow up the payroll for one year, and then reset.
I’m not a fan of tanking.
It’s certainly en vogue these days, though.
In the Cubs case I don’t really see the payoff. Heck, they just won their division! Why would anyone want to see that tore down?
Agreed on going all out on the payroll for a year.
But.
If they insist upon rebuilding…how do the Yankees get their hands on Schwarber?
The Cubs won the division because of Darvish, Hendricks, Happ, Jeffress, and Hayward. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber had little to do with the success; in fact the Cubs were decent in spite of them.
Pretty soon all four are going to be REALLY expensive. For 2021 all four will total probably about $62 – $64 million, and this is really your last year to get prospect value for Bryant, Schwarber, and Baez (although I like Baez, as he has defensive value far beyond the other two). Because if all four have seasons like they had this year, none of them are getting qualifying offers, because no team would sign them for $18+ after two bad seasons (2020 and 2021).. My guess is they trade Bryant, Schwarber, and Contreras (can get MONSTER value for him) and they keep Rizzo and Baez. They can take their saving and sign La Stella, Jake Lamb, and LeMahieu, still have money left over, and be a much better offensive team.
They won the division because it was only a 60 game season. Period!
I think the Cubs sign Rizzo to an extension. The other three “core” guys.. IMO Bryant and Contreras will be gone. Probably Baez is too.
It was reasonable to hang on to the core this year, I suppose, but there were definitely warning signs. Despite Baez’s power last year, his plate discipline really didn’t improve. Bryant has been injured often the last two years. Rizzo’s been very consistent but do you really want to commit to a 30+ first baseman?
Theo and Jed can go a lot of different directions here, but the blow-up is the best option. None of the three listed above are worth what the market will be for them. Schwarber is good, not great. Happ is very solid and cheap, which is something they should hang on to unless blown away by an offer. Nico is young, too.
To me, you build around Contreras (youngish, durable, very solid player), Heyward (no choice), and Darvish and Hendricks (contract dictates). Throw in Happ and Hoerner and you’ve got the start to a team. There are LOTS of holes here. But keeping the core and losing the chance to cash in is a terrible idea. They need major league caliber pitching, position players, and organizational depth. Trading these three away can restock the team in a way they might not have a chance to do again in a very long time.
There are LOTS of holes here.
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I’d keep them all, unless I was overwhelmed with an offer.
That said, I don’t completely disagree with your assessment either. They’re a little like my RS in this regard. We have a lot of holes, but we have a lot of good players. I think they are behind the RS in regard to the number of good players,
But they have 9-10 guys to fill the primary 15 slots. They could trade Baez, Bryant, and Schwarber, sign 3 mediocre FAs, hold their noses and hope for the best. Those three combined for 0.7 bWAR, and they still managed to come in 1st.
And that’s the argument, right? Their production does not match their next contract potential. If a team is willing to give up some prospects for any of them, I think the Cubs have to listen.
That’s exactly right, because they cannot afford qualifying offers on all four – Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber. Plus bringing all four of them back does not address their roster flaws – too little contact and a feast or famine approach to an offense.
My guess is they trade Bryant (get decent, not great prospects now) and Schwarber (really just a salary dump, but he has some value as he was good in 2019; I’m looking at the Royals as a match), as well as Contreras (who REALLY has value as a great catcher with two years of control). I’m looking at the Tampa Bay Rays as a match for the Cubs. Either Brujan or Edwards would be a speedy guy who makes contact, plus Shane Baz as a potential top-of-the rotation guy. The Cubs could take on Kiermaier’s contract, and the Cubs would then send some other value the Rays way. I think Contreras has tremendous value; look at what the Mariners got for Austin Nola!!!!
I think they could trade for prospects and give it a quick one-year rebuild / retool, especially with all the free agents after 2021, they could quickly again be an elite team pretty quickly.
Trade Schwarber, Bryant, and Contreras, with Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood coming off the books, they can bring in some cheap free agent pitching and bring in La Stella, Jake Lamb, maybe even LeMahieu. It would be a more contact-oriented team with possibly an infusion of minor league talent ready in 2022.
The Yankees aren’t letting LeMahieu leave. They will pay whatever it takes to retain him.
Put a fork in them!
Next year is really the last year the cubs could add to their farm system if they go rebuild. Pretty much all there main guys have expiring contracts in the not too far future. So this off-season would be the year. I don’t know how much they’d get honestly but it’s better than nothing
Why trade em at this point? Their value is at the lowest possible. They’ll all be playing hard for FA contracts. Ride that greed as deep into the playoffs as possible. If Bryant and Baez don’t produce neither is getting that 9 figure deal they covet. And Bryant, Baez and Rizzo could all bring back draft picks with QO after ’21. I’d definitely release Almora, love the defense but I’d rather have Hamilton in that role to bring as a pinch runner.
Trying doesn’t mean succeeding.
Dump them all.
Hey look – it’s nimrod!
Trade Bryant to Mets for Edwin Diaz & Brandon Nimmo
Trade Willson Contreras & Albert Almora to the Rays for Brendan McKay
Trade Javy Baez to the Padres for Tommy Pham & Emilio Pagan
Trade Ian Happ & Prospect for Whit Merrifeld
Sign Michael Brantley & Trevor Bauer
Lineup:
Whit Merrifield 2B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Michael Brantley DH
Tommy Pham LF
Jason Heyward RF
Victor Caratini C
David Bote 3B
Nico Hoerner SS
Rotation:
Darvish
Bauer
Hendricks
McKay
Alzolay
Bullpen MUCH stronger as well..
Gimme a video game! I’ll make it work!
Good ideas!!! I think the Cubs definitely need to think outside the box, trade part of the core, and go after some free agents.
(1) I don’t think they will sign Bauer. They will have about $35 million coming off the books with Lester, Chatwood, and Quintana leaving, but I don’t see them putting all that money on one player.
(2) Your proposal probably doesn’t have enough value coming back to the Cubs from Tampa Bay for Willson Contreras, and Almora is simply a non-tender. Nobody will give up value for him. Tampa Bay is the perfect match for the Cubs!! I tend to prefer a return of Brett Philipps, Xavier Edwards, and Shane Baz, with Contreras and something else heading to the Rays. But the Rays are loaded, probably the most talented organization in baseball!! The Rays might prefer to dealing Kiermaier (salary relief for them).
(3) I think that’s unrealistic value for Bryant, as you’d probably get lower-level prospects for him or some combination of a bad contract exchange (like you have).. Bryant is probably at most worth maybe RHP Francisco Morales and LHP Erik Miller to the Phillies (that might even be too much). The Mets are not a good match for the Cubs, as the Mets don’t really need any offensive help, especially because J.D, Davis was better last year and is cheaper than Bryant.
I do love your vision of a re-tool, trading guys for prospects and salary relief, so as the sign guys that are actually playing well. I think if the Cubs trade Bryant, Schwarber, and Contreras they can get MORE salary relief (on top of Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood) along with some decent prospects (probably great prospects for Contreras).
Why would the Padres want Baez when they have Machado & Tatis on the left side for years to come. I guess Baez could move to 2nd base for them but SD does not want to spend any more top FA money, so Baez doesn’t fit for them regardless of where he’s willing to play.