Mets right-hander Marcus Stroman opted out of pitching in 2020 because of concerns over COVID-19, but that shouldn’t stop the free agent from securing a big payday during the offseason. The Mets have already issued him a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM for next season, though Stroman could turn that down and test the open market. Indeed, he’s “more likely” than not to reject the QO, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
[RELATED: MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions]
This isn’t necessarily a surprise for Stroman, who may be the top starter on the free-agent market after Trevor Bauer. The 29-year-old Stroman has been a quality No. 2/3 type throughout his career, which began in 2014 and has included 849 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP pitching with 7.36 K/9, 2.59 BB/9 and a 58.6 percent groundball rate.
Stroman has posted 200-inning seasons on two occasions, and when he last pitched, he racked up 184 1/3 frames. That type of durability would be welcome for the Mets or any other team looking for a starter capable of racking up a lot of frames and performing well. Just about every club is looking for a hurler like Stroman for its rotation, meaning he should rake in quite a bit of money in free agency.
Stroman is a pretty good pitcher and I think he would get paid a lot of money in a regular year. However, I don’t see him getting a big payday with the losses from Covid and the fact that he hasn’t pitched since 2019. Hope I’m wrong though.
Stroman’s consistency and health are issues. i think he could pull close to that, but a strong 2021 on the tag sets him up for a bigger payday.
More interesting than the market itself, is where agents are going to be projecting their client’s market to be. In Stroman’s case, his agent and other brain trust better have a realistic view on what may be out there for him before dismissing $19 million. We know he was always going to enter the market as the second best starting pitcher and that he is going to value himself as a TOR arm. We also know teams are probably going to look at him as more of a solid #3 when negotiations. Add in team’s crying poor due to COVID losses, and you have very murky waters ahead for Stroman.
I agree Darkside. before opting out he had health issues anywa(outside of covid) which severely dents his value especially after not pitching this season even if he is healthy. id accept the QO and regroup next year(all assuming he is healthy and ready to pitch… yesterday). Now if he knows he’s not healthy and is wise than accepting the QO is a no brainer. I doubt he gets the offers he wants year wise with the time he’s missed….
I can see Stroman getting a “Keuchel”-like treatment because of this.
It also doesn’t help that any team which signs him has to give up a draft pick. In a normal atmosphere that has had a significant affect on the market for many free agents.
Only if he gets a $50M deal before the new season starts, iirc
He’s a New Yorker, could easily return to the Mets. No pick considerations, they need pitchers and they have an owner with no FY20 losses. Don’t see why he can’t get his money.
I agree. With a QO attached to him, The Economic impact of Covid, the fact he didn’t pitch in 2019 & his occasional struggles with Consistency there is good reason to believe he wont get better than his QO offer. Not long ago the QO scared teams away & that was before Covid.
However, A GM desperate for SP could jump all over him after Bauer signs. The QO is a deal breaker for me tho. Too many cheap Veterans without QOs on the market. Stroman is good but he isnt an Ace.
Stroman is a great pitcher who should get paid. Just ask him!
Has someone asked him this before? If so, I’d like to see the quote.
Just ask him!… and he will tell you?
3.76 career ERA is not “great.” It’s above average, I’ll take it, but he’s not that good. How many teams would he be the ace on? Not many at all.
Does him missing 2020 decrease his value significantly because he’ll be rusty and teams won’t have an indication re age-related declines, or is that balanced out by the lack of wear-and-tear on his arm, making it fresher than it otherwise would have been heading into 2021?
he was coming off an injury, so i feel like the lean is in the direction of it hurting him.
I think the time off will be good for him.
He’s 29 and missed an abbreviated 60-game COVID season. So I’d say it should have no bearing and indeed he’ll enter 2021 fresh with less wear-and-tear on his arm. I’d be more concerned about rust from a position player than a pitcher.
Hitters often benefit from a year off. Relievers could go either way. With a starting pitcher, though, it’s always a bad thing to be coming off a 0 IP season because it makes it especially unlikely that you can safely approach 200 IP without getting hurt again. Plus control can be hard to regain after long layoffs.
He’s going to decline the QO and languish on the FA market, having to settle for. 1 yr pillow contract that the Mets will sign him to for less AAV than the QO.
Stroman would fit perfectly in the Braves rotation right after Soroka, Fried, and ahead of Anderson and Wright/Wilson…
Even though AA is familiar with Stroman, the Braves will likely end up getting someone like Morton or Wainwright. I’m just afraid with Liberty Media being the Braves owner, they’re going to be even more budget conscious than most independent/majority owners..I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it.
You just finished a few innings away from the World Series with basically only 2 above average starting pitchers, but they’re also dealing with a league high 11 free agents…They’re going to need to focus on resigning Ozuna, if the DH stays in the NL, or adding a bat for 3B/LF/RF to replace him, adding a starting pitcher, possibly adding a backup catcher if they arent comfortable with Contreras backing up d’Arnaud, and then they’re going to need to re-tool their bench with a backup SS and a bench bat, and replace or re-sign O’Day, Melancon, and Greene in their bullpen…
AA has alot to work with, so hopefully he can continue making some moves to keep this train moving. It would just make it a heck of alot easier if Liberty Media loosens the purse strings for him, and especially whenever MLB decides if the NL is going to have the DH or not..If not, that’s definitely going to make a big difference in the type of player AA targets if Ozuna signs elsewhere..
With the Indians wanting to shed money…could a deal for Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco be an option? Take 20m+ off the Indains payroll for the next 2-3 years. Maybe the Indians would be willing to shift some of that future money to Inciarte’s 9m for 2021? Inciarte (salary dump), then Austin Riley, and some other prospects.
The Braves and Dodgers did something similar a few years back. The Dodgers did it to get under the luxury tax and the Braves did it to get out from under Kemp’s 2 year deal.
Mets dodge a bullet if he rejects considering he’s garbage and a locker room cancer. Toronto got nothing In return for the MAGA man
LOL @ Toronto got nothing
Kay is nothing. But the other kid has a chance to be very good. I wouldn’t say the jays got nothing. But the Mets have a chance to get back a piece like SWR back with the pick they are going to get back. But SWR the kid the bluejays got should give bluejays fans joy. He is a nice prospect.
Kay could easily become a useful reliever. He just isn’t able to command enough pitches to look like a starter. A few years of a useful reliever would still be worth giving up the half year of Stro, even if SWR doesn’t pan out.
i dont think that was the acronym again…
He’s a bum, prima-donna, liar and a quitter for the stunt he pulled this season. Mind you he did it in his home town. That tells a lot about his character. He’s mediocre at best maybe an avg #3 or good #4.. Whoever gets him have fun. he’s not worth the shenanigans.
How is what he did any different than what the Cubs did with Kris Bryant?
Neither situation is similar.
Explain.
literally everything you just said is wrong, just give up already.
One of the most fascinating free-agent storylines this offseason. I think the Mets and Stroman are likely to part ways, but I also don’t see Stroman getting much more than what the QO was giving him.
I wouldn’t want my team to sign him. I don’t care about him sitting out in 2020. That was his decision and if you don’t take care of yourself, no one else will. What bothers me about Stroman is his inconsistency on the mound. He might be okay, but I’d rather let someone else pay and find that out. As for what he might get in a contract, I’m amazed at how many fans are treating this as a normal off-season. Even with the big TV contract referenced elsewhere by Francisco Lindor, teams are acting as if the money isn’t there. No one knows for sure about that, but a 60-game season followed by another that’s likely to be Covid-altered means things are not normal. Some free agents are going to get passed overly completely to make a point. Relief pitchers, for instance.
Angels need to bite the bullet and just pay this guy. Even if he ends of being a #3 type SP that is desperately needed by them.
3/42-45.
3/48
This is a win win situation for the Mets….. so either decision I’m fine with
“…Indeed, he’s “more likely” than not to reject the QO, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
This isn’t necessarily a surprise for Stroman,…”
I’d imagine Stroman’s decision about turning down the QO isn’t a surprise for Stroman. LOL
I really think Stroman would be smart to take the QO, but I suspect he’ll be too stubborn.
Too true lol
I would think the Covid environment would cause most teams to downsize their payrolls. The fact that he opted out this year might also cause reams to back off. I think he would be better served to pick the QO. He is a good #3 starter for the Mets.
Given our surface level understanding of how the market may shape up, it would seem foolish for Stroman not to accept the nearly 19m dollar salary for 2021. However, maybe people in the industry have some sort of inkling there will be more money out there than expected.
Anyway — I think he would be a nice fit in Miami. They could use an experienced starter and would benefit from the stability Stroman offers — he’s had no significant arm injuries. Playing for the Mets, Stroman is also at least somewhat familiar with the division and lives in Florida, which may or may carry a degree of importance.
Marcus Stroman is out of his mind if he thinks he’ll get more then 18.9 million in the open market annually.(per year). Stroman is buying low on this one, I’m really curious what he’s going to end up getting, especially during these times.. I mean, would a team cough up 15-16 million per season for the next 3-4 years for Stroman? possibly,.. I think if that happens though, it will be from a very desperate pitching needy team.
Unless he wants more guaranteed security than 1 year? Will he get two more big 3 or 4 year deals in season ages 30 and 34? Maybe it depends on how his body feels influencing his decision?
I think he needs to show he can win for a playoff contending team before placing the ‘elite’ tag on him and that kind of money. He’s a .500 pitcher that doesn’t dominate entering his age 30 season. Thant’s not premium. He should be paid as a #4 starter.
Either way, I think he’ll “survive” financially.
Pretty much all teams are desperate for pitching. That includes the Mets, hence why they offered him the QO. If he accepts, they just filled one of their rotation spots with a quality starter on a one year deal. If he rejects, they get a compensation pick. The Wilpon’s wouldn’t have done that because they’d be afraid he accept. Cohen/Alderson are fine either way, although they probably have a preference that we don’t know. I suspect they want him to accept.
Stroman should easily get 3/45 or 3/48 even in this market. There are too many teams that need a quality pitcher and while he’s not dominant, Stroman is a quality pitcher. It will really come down to Stroman’s ego and what he wants to ‘prove’ in this market. If he wants $20M+ a year, he’s going to be waiting a long time. In this economy, it’s going to be hard to find a team willing to give up its second round draft pick for one year of Stroman so he could back himself into a Keuchel / Kimbrell situation where he has to wait until July to sign and end up losing millions along the way. The smart move would be to re-sign with the Mets for a 2 year pillow contract so he can get past his QO year and past the CBA year as well. He could hit free agency at age 30-31 and then secure one more, multi year deal at more ‘normal’ AAV rates. The only risk there is that he’ll need to pitch well under that pillow contract for the Mets. Unless someone is willing to go 4+ years and over $70M total this offseason, I see Stroman taking a short term deal with NY and betting on himself for a longer/bigger deal in 2022.
3/48
I doubt he gets 3 years at all…much less 3/45. If he doesn’t accept the QO there is a strong possibility he doesn’t sign until July.
Accepting the QO and using the season the build his stock wouldn’t be a bad choice. He’d be up against Greinke, Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Syndergaard. All are either coming off TJ or up there in age. Although some might command a strong short-term contract which could also help Stroman looking at a 5-year deal.
Every season there’s a guy or two how should take the QO and don’t then miss out on millions. Let history be a lesson. Bird in hand…
Who’s going to pay Stroman at least $60MM for the next 3/4 years? That’s the minimum.
No one will pay him 3/$60M this offseason but he might be able to find 4/$60M from some team out there. I’m just not sure he’d sign that deal because of his ego/pride. He believes he is a $20M/yr + talent so I doubt he’d sell himself short by agreeing to a $15M AAV even with the 4 year commitment and guaranteed $60M total compensation. Personally, I believe he should jump all over a 4/60 offer but he’s too good (in his own mind) to settle for that. He’ll end up settling for a 1-2 year deal and it will be interesting to see what happens after that. He’ll probably end up leaving more money on the table this offseason then he ultimately agrees to over his next 2 short term deals he is forced to settle for.
If Stroman had half a brain he would take the offer. I suspect he won’t because he believes he is an ace starter. He most certainly is not. He is a decent #3. He wants the ace money.
Another problem no one has mentioned. We are not sure what impact CoVid is going to have on games next year. So if Stroman decided not to play this year what makes everyone so sure he plays this year? Might he sit out again?
We always look at individual/personal numbers, but do his teams WIN when he pitches?
I took a moment to look it up. For his career, his teams are 2 games over .500 in games he’s started.
Over rated?
It wouldn’t make my decision for me, but it would be something I’d consider. I was going to compare him to Archer in this regard. Archer had a 3.69 with TB, but only a 54-68 record. Either something is really wrong with you, or you are super unlucky, but that’s one of the reasons I have never liked Archer.
Stroman is not that bad (no one is that bad), but his career record is only 51-47 with a 3.76. It feels like it should be a lot better record.
Mets fans have set up their own personal narrative here that unless Stroman gets a five year deal for more than an $18.9 AAV, he made a mistake. On the other hand, they believe if he accepts the deal it’s because no one will want him, even though what’s driving their comments is they want him back on a one year deal.
I don’t know what Stroman will do, but he’s in a win-win situation. He either gets basically $19M for a single season of work and enters free agency a year from now with no free agent compensation attached, or he enters now and gets no worse than a 4/68, but likely higher.
I don’t believe he thinks much of the Mets organization, but that was pre-Cohen and the return of Alderson. The Jeff Wilpon craziness is gone. The Mets want to be like the Dodgers and Yankees— yearly contenders and I’d be surprised if they’re not with Cohen there. Stick around and see if you like the new direction. Collect $19M now and go for a bigger deal one year on. There’s risk there because he’s a pitcher, but if he truly has a big ego, then he won’t lack confidence. He’ll bet on himself. Regardless of choice, he’ll come out a winner money wise.
I wouldn’t let Stroman or Bauer pitch on my team for free. Bauer is obnoxious, Stroman is insufferable. Listening to Stroman’s self-inflicted ‘me against the world’ nonsense in Toronto got old real fast.
That’s a consideration teams will need to make. The Yankees, as one example, won’t go anywhere near Bauer because he’d be a constant distraction and the reportedly bad relationship with Cole. The Angels, however, no doubt will. The Red Sox don’t care as much about such things, and they’ve reset. They’ll be a market for both.
If I were the NYY, I wouldn’t sign Stroman either, after what he said.
I hate the NYY as much as anyone, but Stroman was way out of line saying they always fold. I got a heck of a chuckle out of it, but how can you possibly sign someone that says that about you?
…and they won’t. He’s pissed because of Cashman’s comments when he was traded. He’s always wanted to play for the Yankees, but he likely realizes it’s never going to happen.
i rather have the draft pick
The Mets could end up with neither. No Stroman and no draft pick. Just look back a couple of years when Keuchel and Kimbrell overplayed their hands and had to sit out until July. Keuchel took it on the chin, while Kimbrell somehow fooled the Cubs into vastly overpaying for his services. But they both lost their pay from April-July and will never make that shortfall up. The same could easily happen to Stroman here and he’s coming off a season where he was paid very little money too. He was only paid his pro-rated salary for the short time he spent on the IL. Once he reached enough service time for free agency, he punted on the rest of the season and the rest of his paychecks too. So if he’s not careful, he could very well miss over one full year of pay. Regardless of what his next contract looks like, that’s money he’ll never be able to make up.
I would think that the qualifying offer for one year would be more attractive than people think. The Mets were smart to offer it. If he accepts they have a quality starter albeit for $19m. The free agent environment may be dramatically reduced compared to years past with owners taking revenue hits to the chin in 2020, and not knowing what the 2021 outlook will be. For Stroman, accepting the offer guarantees a paycheck at the high end of the scale and gives him a chance to showcase his talent having not pitched much. It’s a win win for him and the team to accept. If he declines and the free agent marked is colder than expected he may end up with less than he hopes. Tough one to call after a bizarre year.