TODAY: The Mets officially announced that Stroman was issued a qualifying offer.
OCTOBER 31: The Mets plan on extending a qualifying offer to starting pitcher Marcus Stroman before tomorrow’s deadline, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). The move does not come as a particular surprise, despite Stroman opting out of 2020. Some mystery remained, however, as the revenue losses around the game already made for some surprising cost-cutting decisions.
With that in mind, Stroman could consider accepting the $18.9MM offer, play one more year in New York, and return unencumbered to what should be at least a marginally more favorable free agent ecosystem after 2021. Under traditional circumstances, Stroman should have no problem finding a multi-year deal on the open market, but there’s more uncertainty than ever. Still, Stroman is among the very best free agent starters available, should he decline the qualifying offer and test the open waters. He is represented by Klutch Sports.
The Mets would likely welcome him back, especially with Noah Syndergaard to miss the beginning of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Stroman made 11 starts down the stretch after GM Brodie Van Wagenen traded for him on July 28, 2019. Stroman was a long-rumored trade candidate with the Blue Jays, but the Mets emerged somewhat surprisingly as his ultimate destination despite being at the very fringes of contention at the time. Stroman was unable to move the needle even while going 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA/4.15 FIP in 59 2/3 innings with 9.1 K/8 to 3.5 BB/9. The Mets gave up two pretty good pitching prospects in Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson for those 11 starts from Stroman, though at the time, of course, the Mets expected to get a full 2020 from Stroman as well. He ultimately opted out of the 2020 season.
Throughout his career with the Mets and Blue Jays, the 5’7″ right-hander has a 51-47 record across 146 appearances (140 starts) totaling 849 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP and 7.36 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, and 59.6 GB%. He went 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA/4.15 FIP in 5 playoff starts with the Jays between 2015 and 2016, including a 6-inning, 2 earned run no-decision in a deciding game 5 ALDS win over the Rangers in 2015.
He isn’t worth that
This proclamation brought to you by low volume talker.
Well explained rationale …
For one year? He costs nothing but money — which is a lot cheaper than trading talent for a mid-level pitcher. It was the right move. New owner has money to burn.
The question is could they get a better pitcher for that much money? Or even less?
Starting pitching is overpaid for the value it returns on the field because it is scarce. It’s part of the reasoning behind the Rays’ and others’ bullpen strategy. A number four or five starter that you hope can give you 150 innings over 30 starts and a mid-4 ERA is going to cost you 6 to 10 million, and most teams don’t have the depth at AAA to have guys ready to deliver that. So, for a number 3 starter like Stroman–high 3 ERA and probably 5 2/3 a start who will probably provide $10 to $15 million in value on the field, maybe $20+ if he has a very good season, a one year contract at $18 or 19 is fine. It’s not like giving him 6/100 and seeing the back half bite you when he turns out to be more like JA Happ or Jake Arrieta in his 30s than like Tim Hudson.
For one year? No. What “better” FA pitcher signs a one-year deal? Acquiring another starter will cost talent. Extending the offer was a no-brained. Mets can still sign FA pitcher to a long term contract or trade, but they don’t have to do it twice.
Costs nothing but money? Money is nothing? What kind of an argument is that?
When the owner states he is willing to lose 100s of millions the first two years. The economics of the Mets payroll are no longer the same.
By doing so, they also take away would-be interested teams, like ATL. AA has been connected to Stroman, but requiring a draft pick (if he declines, which is not a given) makes him a lot less attractive.
I would’ve let Stroman walk. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t accept it. Not worth that much.
My thought too. Mets probably just want to at least get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
He will decline bc he thinks he is better than he is (I really like him too so this isn’t a shot at him) and it will back fire on him. I want him to stay a Met but I don’t see it. They’ll get 3 other pitchers imo
It only backfires if his total deal is worth less than $18.9M. He could get a 3/39 and he’s $20M ahead. It’s not the AAV; it’s guaranteed dollars. I suspect he’ll do no worst than a 4/80. Very little quality starting pitching available.
If nothing else, you’re already seeing the advantages of Cohen. The Wilpon’s would have been afraid to extend the QO in fear he’d accept it. Cohen knows he either gets a quality starter for a year, or a compensation pick for the risk. Smart business.
It’s definitely the AAV. By taking a short term deal like you described, he definitely lost money. If he accepts the QO and pitches well, he would need a 2 year 20 year deal, which he would top. Or a 3 year, 61 million deal, which he would also top.
If he blows out his arm or has a terrible year (like his 2018) then he is looking at a very low cost 1 year deal in 2022. It is a big risk to accept if he could have a deal with more guaranteed money
That’s not how it works
The Wilpons would have been reluctant to extend a QO if it a) put them close to the luxury tax or b) was being done to get a draft pick on a marginal QO player and not keep the guy on a safe, 1-year contract, having been burned by Sandy QO to Neil Walker. This is a very Sandy move: low risk: fair market price for one year a mid-rotation guy when your rotation needs at least two arms and two swingmen/fill-ins/depth starters.
$18.9 million is not low-risk. That’s a lot of pocket change.
Low-risk is usually decisively below $10 million.
Mets will now operate like the big market club they are. I’m not saying they will spend stupid money but money won’t dictate decisions. They will no longer give players away at the deadline because they need to get rid of contracts.
I think you all may have to realistically consider that Stroman will take the offer. It’s a risky climate for spending. $18.9m is nothing to easily turn away co9nsidering that so many teams will be hesitant to spend like that, unless it’s a big market team for an excellent talent. The other big markets aren’t jumping on that very easily with losing draft picks for a marginal pitcher.
This will be a tough decision for him either way.
If he accepts it and get the 19m and does well. Next year he is “on the wrong side of 30” which automatically cuts down potential. He could also do poorly and be forced to sign another pillow deal.
This year if he doesnt accept, he now has a draft pick attached to him which are like gold now a days it seems. He is not a huge difference maker on a team as most have said a high end 3 maybe low end 2 pitcher. Is that worth a draft pick and sizable contract.
I think he should decline and try for a 2 -35-40 with player option for 15 at the end of the deal. I think that is reasonable deal for him with draft pick comp and give him some options earlier when hopefully things are better.
I doubt he declines. His negotiating power is weakened by sitting out plus he loves NY. He wants to stay here.
But the Mets new owner hasn’t lost a dime in baseball yet, so I can see him being totally unafraid of spending money this offseason. I expect the Mets to be very active and it couldn’t come at a better time for them – they can take advantage of the lack of competition for players and all of the non-tenders, etc.
Cohen stated he was prepared to lose — I forget — it was either $200m or $400m the first 2 years.
400 mil for the next two season I think
A pitcher with $21 million in career earnings is going to decline $18.9 million QO in this financial climate?
That seems risky, especially coming off a lost season.
He should take it. It’s a no brainer. But if you hear him talk. He thinks he is Bauer. I’m not hating on him but it’s going to back fire on him when he declines.
I agree he should take it. If he turns down the QO, a team will need to give up draft picks to sign him. If that happens, he may go unsigned until after the draft when teams will not lose draft picks. In that case, he will make much less than the QO.
I would suspect that his agent would advise him to take the offer considering teams may hesitate giving him big dollars and forfeit a top pick in the climate right now.
I think the Mets actually just did him a favor.
Although some players may want security. That may be a big reason for him not to accept it. You never know what’s the future holds and could be injured next year and lose out on a year of salary. He definitely should take it but hey may value long term security rather than a larger sum for one year
he should accept. the picm could hurt him.
Plus the lack of a whole season for him
Take the money, nearly double your career earnings, and also guarantee you never have a Qo again
Let’s see if he trusts his agent. Lol
I agree he should take it but even if he doesn’t, he can’t receive another QO
He kinda gave then the finger after he got hurt, so why not kill his market even more? Get something out of him
He should accept. He prolly won’t
If if accepts the QO fine, if not fine too, I didn’t like him opting out this year, if he stays I would still go after Bauer or Paxton, If Stroman leaves I would go after both deGrom,Stroman,Bauer(Paxton),Peterson and Lugo OR. deGrom,Bauer,Paxton,Lugo and Peterson.
Than I would go after Springer for CF and a defensive C, and at least 2 RP’s the Mets have a lot of $$ coming off the books plus with a new owner it’s possible.
Didn’t he opt out last season because he wanted safety for his family? Why would he play this season when nothings changed?
18 million reasons
He only gets $18.9M if they play a full season. Regardless, under your thinking, he had $12M reasons to play this season. Clearly wasn’t money driven. He had millions of reasons to play this year, even prorated millions.
In a “normal” off-season I’d’ve pegged the Keuchel deal as a decent comp. (For Tanaka too, actually.) I can see arguments for a bit more – perhaps even a little less – but I think that’s a fair starting point.
I do wonder how the guys that opted out are going to be viewed. Guys who had medical reasons I get.
Guys who didn’t?
Unfairly – or not – I can’t help but see them as guys who quit on their teammates. & I think that a *lot* of players will feel the same way…though they’ll deny it.
For me, quitting on your tram is a far greater sin than “cheating”.
Quitting on your team is taking the field and intentionally giving less than your best effort. Opting out during a global pandemic is NOT quitting on your team, Ducky. I understand you added the caveat for medical reasons, but still. If someone felt uncomfortable, they should make the personal choice best suited for them. They gave up their salary. I don’t understand why there would be resentment. To me that’s insane.
The way he did it was weak. He strung the Mets along until he got his service time then opted out
I hear what you are saying, @outlaw.
I also posted “unfairly or not”. Because it certainly could be I’m *not* being fair.
It’s all about perception.
From my experience in locker rooms I firmly believe that’s how a lot of players are going to view those guys.
He didn’t just opt out. He layed out until he had enough service time to become a free agent and then bailed on his team.
18 million reasons… He was getting 12 million but decided to fake a injury get some money and opt out for safety reasons…The best part is people defended his actions by saying players get taken advantage all the time with service time. Blue Jays did that to him and last time I checked Alonso started the year with the Mets and have never done that with players
@mookiesboy and johnnydubz he had every right to do that
I’m not going to criticize a guy for opting out during a global pandemic, even if it he strategically wait until he got that 6th year of service time before doing so, but he’s an unmarried 29 year old who presumably no longer lives with parents. So not sure I buy the whole family thing.
I think it had more to do with the injury he had and not wanting to injury/ineffectiveness affecting his next contract more than anything with COVID just being a convenient excuse.
Yeah but now he hasn’t pitched in over a year and the only reason the Mets are doing this is because of Cohen having no problem using financial muscle. Stroman said it was family reasons but I agree the guy is full of nonsense. I doubt many teams will be interested so if he is smart he takes QO. There is a reason the Mets gave up very little for a guy with his resume. He made a scene in TO because he got traded to Mets instead of Yanks.
Stoman would be stupid not to accept that. You aren’t going to get $19 million after this season and certaintly not when you’re a back-end 2 starter and overall a solid #3 starter and have a draft pick attached.
If an ace level pitcher makes 30-35m a year, its fair to say that a 2-3 slot guy can easily net 20m a year with a proven record, which he kind of has. I agree with you though and think hed be crazy to pass on it especially with the financial uncertainty next year.
Teams dont pay as much for non strikeout guys.
This would be the reason i see him declining it. He depends on defense and have you seen the mets defense? Outside of Gimenez at best only1 or two are average defense with most being below average d. So those stats will not look as good.
That and you have no certainty at catcher right now other than Nido as i dont see them resigning Ramos and Rivera at best a minor league deal.
COVID dude. COVID
He’d probably be smart to accept it what with all of the uncertainty of free agency in this climate. Are teams really going to shell out big bucks for players who opted out last season? I wouldn’t gamble on that happening.
When Trevor Bauer signs with a team not named the angels this is the guy the angels will pay for around 3 to 4 years ! Since technically teams can talk to free agents already if he indeed does reject the qualifying offer it’s bc he knows he can get multiple years to his liking !
I think he declined expecting to land a 4-yr deal elsewhere before the market ends up pushing him back to the Mets for a 1-yr pillow contract for less AAV with Mets.
He has to accept this
I agree. He’s probably not going to exceed that AAV. The only way he doesn’t is if he gambles that he can get a multiyear deal that exceeds the QO. Say, for, example, three years at 50.
It’s a gamble in THIS market since I expect many teams are too unsure about the 2021 season. I wouldn’t be surprised, outside of the big spenders, that few players are signed until February to see how COVID pans outs–the reverse of players holding out.
Plus, he gets a heck of a payday and never has to worry about a QO possibly hampering his market ever again. He’d be a fool times two to pass on the offer.
He better accept it because no one else is gonna sign him until after the mlb draft. Remember 2019 Kimbrel and Keuchel lost a ton of money waiting until June. And at the time they were perceived to be better players than Stroman.
This is a no brainer.
Mets being the Mets
What he should do: Accept the QO. You didn’t even pitch this season and could really use another year to build up your stock again. Additionally, considering teams aren’t even willing to pay $10 million dollars for a premier closer (Brad Hand) in the Covid-stricken offseason, I don’t think you will get anything more than a two-year deal for 2/26 or something of the sort.
What he will most likely do: Reject it because of extreme overconfidence (if not arrogance) of his own ability. If he thought about the parameters of his situation, he’d realize that taking the QO is arguably the best way to maximize his future career earnings. Sadly, he won’t.
Um, he’d be a fool not to take it.
He’s the second best option on the market. He’ll easily eclipse $19 million in guaranteed money. Not in one year, but overall.
both him being the 2nd best and being able to eclipse that are debatable
Correct. There’s an argument for him to accept. Wouldn’t be a bad idea, yet he’ll get more as a free agent. It’s Mets fans who want him to accept so they get a quality starter on a one year deal. Teams will pay for quality and there’s a shortage of quality starters out there. He’s young. Still only 29. Has shown he can give 180-200 innings in a season. Suppresses HRs in a game that’s HR focused. He had a 137 ERA+ in 2019. He’ll reject the QO and do well on the open market. As you well know, the Angels need starters, to name just one team.
lordd99
Are you saying he’ll beat $18.9 AAV or that he’ll beat $18.9 total (or both)?
he’s also missed time now in half of his seasons since 2014. i wouldnt act like 180-200 is a given.
What choice does he have, reject the offer when teams are cutting payroll? His best move is to take the QO and test the waters after 2021 with no lost draft pick and team finances presumably in better shape than at present. He’ll make more $$$ with the QO and a 3 or 4 year contract than signing a 3, 4, or 5 year contract at depressed 2020 rates.
He’s gonna accept it
What’s his FLUMP stat??
I’m not sure but his bOFA stat is a better predictor of future performance
I hope he turns it down he’s all mouth he think’s that he’s better then he is the Mets could do better with the 19m and get a good draft pick also
I hope he declines the qualifying offer and move on.
For all his talk about how excited he was to pitch for one of his ‘hometown’ teams, he was quick to block on Twitter any Mets fans who offered even the mildest criticisms of him.
He, of course, was justified in doing so of anyone who was cruel and/or racist. Of those he otherwise blocked, myself included, that’s not exactly an effective method of building up a reservoir of hearts and minds for the times he might need it – namely, if he struggles on the mound – should he re-sign long-term.
He Should Take It ….
He didn’t play in 2020 & Sure didn’t show
MUCH AFTER THE METS ACQUIRED HIM
Why???
Stroman is a #3 in the rotation and when he is on, he is one of the best groundball pitchers in the league. Normally groundball pitchers last longer and are less injury prone.
Having watched his entire career in Toronto, he does have emotional issues which causes him to blow up an inning about every second game. He wants to be the big game pitcher and has done that once or twice in his career.
With his temperament he would be a better closer.
No one can predict what Stroman is going to do with a QO he’s too flakey.
The Mets didn’t give up much to get him. Anthony Kay is a poor#4 in the rotation or a one inning reliever. Simeon Woods Richardson is a very good prospect who is a long ways away if he ever makes the big leagues.
angels won’t be perusing him if they do extend him a qualifying offer
Don’t get lost in your ego. Take the money and work to show everybody that you are better than your Mets stats show. (4.15 FIP, 1.475 WHIP)
This is too good of an offer for Stroman to reject in this climate. That being said, with his ego, he totally will reject this.
I agree
Maybe his agent will talk him into agreeing. Mets need starters. While I’m not a huge fan of Stro, he’ll certainly improve the Mets.
I don’t know if he’s married, but I think most of us would think that if he is, his wife would tell him to accept the offer.
All of us know our wives would make us accept this in this climate. It isn’t like he’s going to be atop the demand list this winter enough to gain major money offers.
I think I’d bet on myself, too.
But, I’ve gotten divorced a bunch of times. So.
A bunch of times? Hilarious.
I think he declines for more overall guaranteed money. After Bauer sets the market, he’ll be in about as good a position as he could hope this year. IMO If a team has to give up a pick, they won’t unless they can get Stroman for no less that 4 years.
Don’t extend anything- sign Morton instead 2-22mil
I don’t think any pitcher but Bauer gets 18 M a year
I think Tanaka and Stroman are going into real tough markets
It’s he declines the QO it’s not about him getting that same $18.9M AAV, it’s about him wanting something with more guaranteed years and total dollars.
Even is this depressed market him and
Tanaka can probably get 3Y/$40-45M or worst case scenario like 2Y$30M.
Personally, if I were Stroman I would take the sure $18.9M this year and hope the market improves next year, but he might be willing to take the lower AAV just to have 3 years of guaranteed salary.
Well played by the Mets. This is why players need to have restraint when it comes to Twitter.
Stroman should take the offer. He will not accept the offer due to ego. Mets are playing a smart game here. Serves Stroman right. He is weak.
When Manfred expands the playoffs to 28 teams and the Mets sneak in on the final day of the season, will this guy even make the playoff rotation?
He’ll probably decline the offer, because he knows the Braves will offer him $18M in January if he hasn’t signed a multi-year deal by then.
No thanks. He’s not worth that in terms of performance or his attitude.
If he opts out he’d probably be looking for a 2-4 year deal. Say 2/$35, 3/$47 or 4/$60. Do I wouldn’t go more than 2 years, and I think $35 would be steep. Maybe 2/$32. Especially because he’s had that year off.
No-brainer for the Mets. New ownership can easily afford that if he accepts, and with only deGrom as a definite in the rotation, they need pitching. He declines, they (probably) get the pick.
I don’t think he accepts it, but it’s going to be a wonky market, so who knows.
The question is can they get better pitching for that much? (or even less)
Well the Mets gave up a lot to get him and needed something in return
So I don’t blame them here.
Sunk cost fallacy. Kay and Richardson aren’t coming back. The only question that needs to be answered is can they or can they not get someone better in free agency for $18.9m.
That’s not the only question because the other key question is, will he accept it?
If they’re confident that he won’t, then the risk they’re taking for the reward of the draft pick is small and they’ll likely still have the $18.9M. They’re basically gambling that he won’t take it, which may or may not be a good bet.
He’s accepting.
He doesn’t like the Mets, but if he really wants to stick it to them, he should accept so they’re on the hook for way more than he’s worth and they don’t get the draft pick. He wins too b/c there’s no way he’s getting that much on the market.
He should be able to get more guaranteed money than that on the open market, it’s just not going to be at that AAV because it will be spread out over more years.
I agree though, he should stick it to them and accept. Take the sure $18.9M and hit the market next year when conditions are hopefully better
He does like the Mets. But he likes himself more. The Yankees will overpay at 2 years $39 – 40 million
Who told you this lie????
I agree that he won’t exceed that much AAV on the market, especially not having played this year, but I don’t think it’s impossible that he declines in search of a multi-year deal. If a team offered him, say, a 3-yr, $48M deal with an opt-out after the first year, maybe he’d rather take that for the security if he bombs or gets injured. That said, very few eligible guys seem to be definitely worth a QO this year.
He’s not getting that.
I thought I’d they opted out their contract continued for an additional year. Our is that just with arbitration eligible players? Or am I confusing football opt out players with MLB?
If he rejected I was hopeful the White Sox might sign him but now with Tony in charge I’m not so sure it’s a good mix.
Strange. If Stroman accepts the offer, he would make more than the entire Cleveland Indians rotation, and Stroman couldn’t even crack that starting five. I just thought that was interesting.
New owner has the dough. Pitching is pricey. Not seeing the issue.
What did he actually cost the Mets in 2020, besides the two minor leaguers?
Smart move; they are only doing it for draft compensation knowing he will not take the offer. Now that they made the offer if he moves on the Mets get compensation.
If he stays then they get a starter for a year who will have to sell himself for the future to the rest of MLB
Win – Win