A potentially intriguing offseason awaits the Giants, who are positioned to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams depending on how they approach their long-term spending.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Evan Longoria, 3B: $43MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
- Johnny Cueto, SP: $27MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
- Buster Posey, C: $24.4MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
- Brandon Belt, 1B: $16MM through 2021
- Brandon Crawford, SS: $16MM through 2021
- Wilmer Flores, INF: $3.25MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Daniel Robertson – $1.1MM
- Tyler Anderson – $3.7MM
- Alex Dickerson – $1.8MM
- Jarlin Garcia – $900K
- Trevor Gott – $700K
- Reyes Moronta – $800K
- Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM
- Darin Ruf – $1.4MM
- Austin Slater – $1.1MM
- Donovan Solano – $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Robertson, Gott
Option Decisions
- None
Free Agents
- Kevin Gausman, Tony Watson, Drew Smyly, Jeff Samardzija, Trevor Cahill, Tyler Heineman, Chris Herrmann
President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent his first two seasons trying to work around the Giants’ long list of guaranteed contracts, but the light can be seen at the end of this financial tunnel. Evan Longoria is the only player on the books beyond the 2021 season, providing the Giants with quite a bit of room to maneuver going forward and giving them an advantage in an offseason where most teams will limit their spending.
The question, of course, is whether Zaidi will pursue bigger-scale moves this winter or next. Other than simply acknowledging how payroll “flexibility….will certainly be helpful to us in the current marketplace,” Zaidi hasn’t made any bold statements about his offseason plans, as one might expect. The Giants suffered revenue losses themselves, and a full-bore splurge of major signings and trades for expensive players might not yet be feasible for the team, nor does such a tactic seem to fit Zaidi’s M.O. for roster construction.
There’s also the matter of the big contracts still on the roster for the coming season, but these deals aren’t quite as onerous as they seemed even a year ago. Brandon Crawford rebounded nicely from a mediocre 2019 season. Brandon Belt was quietly one of the better hitters in baseball, ranking fifth among all MLB hitters with a 173 wRC+ (min. 170 plate appearances). Even Longoria still provided his customary strong third base defense despite a below-average offensive year, though his Statcast metrics indicate that Longoria may have been one of the league’s unluckier hitters.
Beyond these veteran contributions, San Francisco also benefited from continued brilliance from the more unheralded members of its roster. Maybe Zaidi doesn’t need to spend big in free agency if his front office’s continual flurry of seemingly low-level roster moves keeps finding the likes of MVP candidate Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, or Darin Ruf.
The result is a team that suddenly looks pretty set in terms of position players, prompting Zaidi to suggest he’ll focus primarily on “complementary” position players. Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, and Yastrzemski will patrol the outfield with Ruf and Austin Slater as the first choices for platoon/bench duty. Longoria, Crawford, Solano, and Belt hold down the regular infield slots with Wilmer Flores getting a lot of action at first or second base (or at DH, if the position exists for NL teams in 2021) and Ruf probably also in the first base mix.
While Solano, Flores, and even Dubon offer some positional versatility, needs might include a proper utility infielder who could be a feasible shortstop option if Crawford was injured. Daniel Robertson performed pretty well in his limited time as a Giant, and though that might not be enough for San Francisco to tender him a contract, the team could explore re-signing him on a cheaper deal. Ideally, the Giants would probably prefer to add a left-handed hitter since they’re already heavy on righty bats.
Catcher isn’t necessarily a question mark in terms of personnel, but it’s definitely the biggest unknown in terms of what the Giants can expect. After undergoing hip surgery late in the 2018 season, Buster Posey didn’t look right for much of 2019 and then opted out of playing in 2020. It’s anyone’s guess as to what the former NL MVP can produce as he heads into his age-34 season.
Posey projects as the starting catcher while star prospect Joey Bart is likely to start 2021 in the minor leagues to get more seasoning after struggling in his first taste of MLB competition. Zaidi implied that the team could look to add a veteran backup for Posey while Bart gets some Triple-A time, or could turn to internal options like Chadwick Tromp or Aramis Garcia (who is returning from a hip surgery of his own).
If the Giants have plenty to work with around the diamond, the opposite is true in the starting rotation. Johnny Cueto was inconsistent in his first full season back after Tommy John surgery. Tyler Beede will be back after missing a season of his own due to TJ surgery, and Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson will return as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation types.
Beyond that quartet, there isn’t much depth, experienced or otherwise. Kevin Gausman, Trevor Cahill, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija are all free agents, leaving some major holes to fill and some major innings to replace. Smyly and Cahill were limited by injuries but pitched well when healthy, with Smyly working mostly as a traditional starter and Cahill pitching as both a starter and as a reliever.
Zaidi has already said that the Giants are making a “priority” of re-signing Gausman and Smyly, and the first step in that direction was taken when San Francisco issued Gausman a qualifying offer. If Gausman simply accepts, the Giants will have him back on a one-year, $18.9MM contract, though if the team pursues a multi-year contract, the 2021 payroll would take less of a hit. This could be something of a replay of Jose Abreu and the White Sox last winter, when Abreu accepted the QO but then worked out an extension with the team after the fact.
The fact that the Giants are willing to pay Gausman $18.9MM even for one season is indicative of a few things. It speaks to the team’s need for pitching, naturally, and also to how well Gausman pitched in his first year in San Francisco. In the larger picture, it hints that the Giants may indeed be willing and able to spend this offseason; if Gausman rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, then that theoretically leaves at least $18.9MM that the Giants will have to direct in some fashion towards the roster.
Those funds could be split up among multiple players rather than a single name. (For example, the total price tag on Gausman, Smyly, Anderson, and Cahill last offseason didn’t even total $18.9MM.) Whether Gausman re-signs or not, expect the Giants to extend low-cost, one-year contracts to a veteran hurler or two.
But, let’s think a bit bigger. Looking at the free-agent pitching market, Trevor Bauer is the clear top option. His stated preference for a team that is both analytically-inclined and willing to let him pitch every fourth day could make him a fit in San Francisco, as Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler have both shown that they’re ready to think outside the box. Bauer has walked back his previous declarations about only seeking one-year contracts, but the Giants have the payroll space to accommodate both a deal for just 2021 (Samardzija and Zack Cozart’s expiring contracts represent over $30MM coming off the books) or for multiple seasons.
Marcus Stroman is also likely to score a big multi-year contract (though Stroman also has a QO decision to make and he didn’t pitch in 2020 after opting out of the season), but MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents doesn’t project any other starter to earn more than $39MM, with Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi both hitting that threshold on three-year deals. Could the Giants hedge their bets slightly by making a Tanaka/Odorizzi-esque signing that would provide the rotation with a clear upgrade, yet still not represent a truly bank-breaking investment?
Going to the other side of the pitching department, the Giants plan to add at least one veteran reliever, so they could direct some funds towards bolstering the pen. GM Scott Harris recently indicated that the club would prefer to develop a closer rather than sign one, but the Giants have the money to pursue a Liam Hendriks or a Brad Hand if they wish. The Indians’ recent decision to waive Hand (and the subsequent decision of the other 29 teams to not claim him) suggests that there might not be much appetite for spending on relief pitching this winter, so San Francisco could gain an edge on the market by offering relievers contracts even slightly closer to what they would expect to receive in a more normal offseason environment.
Despite ostensibly being in a mini-rebuild over Zaidi’s two seasons, the team has been decently competitive. The 2020 Giants fell just one game shy of reaching the postseason. Provided that the lineup keeps hitting as it did last season, it isn’t out of the question to think that the Giants are a pitcher or two away from making some noise in October in 2021. The offseason possibilities are just about endless for Zaidi, Harris and company….depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll in this particular winter. Arguments can be made for going big or going small. The likeliest course could lie in the middle — taking legitimate steps toward emerging as a contender without quickly bogging themselves down with another slate of untenable long-term contracts.
Need to make it as a wildcard
Wildcard? They need to try and figure out a way to finish above .500……haha
Brewers and Astros made playoffs and were sub .500
That was with a massively expanded post season, were not getting that again.
If the giants are going to make the playoffs they need to win the division or a wild card spot.
That was with a massively expanded post season, were not getting that again.
If the giants are going to make the playoffs they need to win the division or a wild card spot.
The other factor you’d have to consider with Zaidi is his knack for finding contributors from unlikely places.
In just two years in San Francisco, he’s brought in Yastrzemski, Solano, Dickerson, and Darin Ruf. The most he gave up was a couple players who are probably selling used cars somewhere, Those players, when adjusted for 162 games, combined for about 14 wins this season.
It’ll be interesting to see how Farhan Zaidi handles this offseason. But he’s left Giants fans with a lot to be excited about.
that’s fortune not skill to have hit on more than 1 castoff.
dan duquette hit on one in the middle of our window. do you think he was good? lol
To be fair it’s more than fortune. In LA they hit on a bunch of those guys, because they attacked skills sets they liked, and allowed guys to reconfigure swing/approach and frankly developed guys. That points to more than luck or fortune, especially when it continues to happen. Not only just in the development department, but also scouting. So if they are starting to build an organization process like he was a part of in LA it’s different from a team that was a decade behind and Duquette is a horrible comp.
A big reason for that was Luck.
The changes that Justin Turner made were his own with no prompting by the F.O. he was also the one who taught that upper cut approach to many of the cast off’s that were successful.
The history books won’t show it, but much of the dodgers recent success has been due to Justin Turner and luck.
LF DickersonRuf
CF Dubon/Yaz
RF Yaz
3b Robertson/Flores
SS Robertson/Solano
2B Solano/Dubon
1B Ruf/Flores
C Tromp
Decent and offensively productive lineup. All Zaidi pickups.
ALL.
Add Belt/Crawford/Longoria/Posey/Slater.
Yep, ALL just good “fortune”. Yep, Zaidi is an idiot. Yep, veterans loved the coaching staff’s influence. Again Zaidi = moron.
No hope
No future
Just good fortune.
Excellent prospects coming.
The Zaidi comp………?
Zaidi
Y’all get a clue
The Giants have become irrelevant in NL West. And they are Not a few pieces away. You could add Bauer and Springer and they’d still finish 3rd maybe 4th in the Division. Even if they somehow could hit over the course of 162, They don’t have the pitching or the organizational depth. Even in a shortened season last year , they finished with a losing record.
Padres fans really are thirsty for some attention, aren’t they?
Maybe if you troll loud enough, Ron Fowler won’t do what every other wise sports owner has done and leave San Diego for a better city.
If an owner is leaving San Diego to go to Los Angeles, I can assure you, it’s the people he wants to leave, not the city.
If I look up the word irrelevant in the dictionary it will say see San Diego Padres, Pages 234-235
It’s not being thirsty for attention.
It’s a factual assessment, the giants don’t have a path to the post season as they’re currently constructed.
Even with the addition of Springer, and hell, lets say Lindor and then add an ace like Bauer. They’re still going to be lucky to get the 2nd Wild Card spot.
The NL East has several legitimate playoff conteders with the Braves, Nats, Phillies and Mets. The NL West has the Dodgers and Padres in the way. How do the giants make the post season as they’re constructed?
Alex Dickerson is a DH who snuck out onto the field.
pick a lane. rebulid or go for it.
“No!”
– The Giants and Indians’ FO’s
They are rebuilding.
@Howie415 if that is the case why didn’t they trade Gausman and Smyly?
What if there wasn’t good enough offers? Would you trade quality starts for peanuts? I doubt it
@SFGiants402
“Nice picture of your boyfriend?”
Classy. And here I was thinking San Francisco was a progressive city.
“…you see, when a team is sitting around .500 and trying to vie for a playoff spot, they typically don’t trade away their #1 pitcher.”
“But honest question, who is going to trade for a rental pitcher that’s pitched for 8 total innings prior to the trade deadline? And what do you believe the Giants would have received in return for him?”
A contender who needs a pitcher More than the nothing the Giants will now get for him.
“So in recap: Gausman was the #1 pitcher on a team in the hunt for a playoff spot, and no one was going to give the Giants anything for Drew Smyly.”
They finished under .500 and only came close to a playoff spot because of the expanded format. Not where they needed to be.
“If it’s too complex, ask your mom for help reading it.”
My mom hasn’t been able to read MLBTR, or do anything else, for 8 years now. Does your mom know that you use your phone to troll MLBTR in class?
But Howie said they are rebuilding. So which one is it?
“I know it’s difficult for you to understand what good decisions are, but that’s why they didn’t trade Gausman (for several other reasons that are probably far too complex for your “retired at 33” IQ).”
Such as what? They aren’t getting a draft pick for him because he has to actually decline the QO and sign elsewhere for that to happen.
“As far as Smyly, he played 3 total games prior to the trade deadline. Three. (That’s one more than two, and one less than four).”
Oh good, you can do arithmetic. Maybe there is (some) hope for you. Maybe.
@atuck_sfg they got less than peanuts by not trading them. They got nothing. A used bag of baseballs would be worth more than what they ended up getting.
lol imagine writing ‘bee tee dubs’ and pretending you’re better than someone else
Imagine having your user name of “bingbong” and thinking anyone should listen to you.
Slater needs to be starting in center over Dubon.
Dubon needs to be starting somewhere
Slater needs to be starting over Dickerson, not Dubon.
Dickerson had an ops over 200 points higher than Dubon.
100% agree! We need both because I have a feeling Dickerson will miss time with back problems again. Those are nagging injuries.
But, Slater deserves a shot at afull time spot. Dubon is alright but a little underwhelming honestly.
I think I’m in favor of a Dickerson Slater Yaz outfield as well. I think Dubon is a valuable piece not because of his center field work but because he’s capable of playing three outfield positions and two infield positions.
The good thing for the Giants their bad contracts are getting closer to going away. Longoria contract is real bad is why tampa gave him away. best thing they could do this off season is just sign a few low end free agents. ride out the year and play the young guys in 21. Use the savings to sign a couple good free agents in 22.
This will be an interesting off season where I think zaidi will continue to look for shorter term contracts to fill their pitching needs.
There seems to plenty of players who could be seeking a one or two year contract playing in the giants pitcher orientated home ball park.
In no particular order kluber, Hamels, archer, Paxton, Richards, Morton, tanaka, happ, Quintana could all be upgrades and may be seeking a shorter term commitment
This lineup is below league average from a pure talent and potential standpoint. True they performed well last year but to count on them to repeat may be wishful thinking. Not many seem like they are long term pieces either so at some point they will need to address the offense as well.
Pitching is a much bigger question mark obviously but if we have learned anything from Farhan’s past it is that he doesn’t spend big in free agency. He never has in any of the organizations he has been a part of including when he was with the dodgers. To think that he is going to open up the checkbook for Bauer or anyone else in that tier of free agents seems ignorant at best.
The chances that they sign anyone significant are very low. Why would Farhan change his philosophy all of a sudden especially with a FA class that lacks in quality SP’s. After next year there are so many more attractive options and if Farhan spends this offseason he may not be able to spend as much next offseason when the big names are available.
Having said that, I don’t see Farhan ever making a big splash in free agency. He would prefer to barely miss the playoffs each year with a low payroll and the hope of next season then make the playoffs with expensive FA’s. His value is being frugal and he knows that is all he brings to the table so why on earth would he ever change?
Re-sign your good players they say, they’ll be bargains they say.
These contracts all look like straight up crap. Imagine if Tampa still had Longoria who was a franchise cornerstone at one time.
They were tied with the Brewers last year but lost because of tiebreaker rules, the team has some potential. Solano needs to be traded, keep Yaz as he seems to be taking the late-bloomer Justin Turner type route. Flores can platoon with Belt at 1B which leaves us to sign a 2B (Wong would boost defense) and a SP (Taijuan Walker would be ideal)
For what it’s worth, Yastrzemski was about same age (technically younger) when he began his resurgence as Justin Turner was in 2014, and just a year older than when Muncy began his.
Giants need to be a dark horse for Springer.
They have a hole in CF, Springer would compliment Yaz well and he rakes in LA.
The Giants were a bit better than expected last year, but nearly qualifying for a postseason in which more teams did than didn’t, and with a losing record besides, probably isn’t the greatest measure of performance. Zaidi has some strategic decision to make but since they can be punted to midseason he probably will. My guess is he tinkers around the edges this winter, and if it doesn’t all come together by midseason he can take advantage of some great trading opportunities.
Trevor Gott allowed 7 homers in only 11 2/3 innings pitched this year? That’s… umm… impressive.
must be nice to have that kind of money. only 1 guy under contract is a solid contributor. yet I bet in 2 years the giants are battling in it again.
Good wrap up on the Giants as the team can go in a bunch of directions.
As the team transitions from it’s veterans after 2021 they need to supplement the team with players with an eye toward 2022. Relying on prospects to fill the void could mean a very bad year in 2022; that’s why spending heavily on free agents this offseason and potentially going over the $210M luxury tax threshold should be considered. Knowing so much salary is coming off and budgeting that in over a 2 year and 5 year plan makes the process more palatable.
I expect the Giants to continue on their search for value in free agency, meaning not going over or approaching $210M in salaries for 2021. But it will be interesting to see how the Giants allocate their resources and use their big market status to their advantage in a “depressed spending” free agency off season.
Waive Hand. Nice MP.
I would expect Zaidi to follow the Friedman blueprint for long term success vs the Dombrowski model for short term success.
Based on his accomplishments to date, I would not bet against him.
What is it with Giants fans and hurling insults and busting out straw man arguments like “Oh you think they could have gotten Gleyber Torres for Bumgarner?” every time someone suggests Farhan screwed up in not trading his rental players? This isn’t the first time I’ve seen this and I imagine it won’t be the last.
Here’s your giants off-season outlook in a very practical fashion:
If we did a draft consisting of only current 26 man rosters of NL west teams, how many giants would be selected in top 30? Definitely none. What about top 50? Maybe 2. Top 75? 2-3 I’d guess. In the top 100 of this hypothetical draft, giants would probably have 6-7 players. That’s not good. The giants are a bad baseball team because they don’t have good players. It’s pretty simple.
So here’s the giants off-season outlook: things are pretty bleak until they get actual good players.
As stated by fangraphs today: The Giants’ problem when it comes to building a contender isn’t that they lack decent players; it’s that they have a bunch of slightly below-average players projected as full-season starters.
I’m the one whose been called names and insulted because people feel the need to do so because I’ve said less than flattering things about their baseball team. I’ve said no such things about any of you because I don’t know you.
Lulz. You made an unserious and asinine post and got taken to task for it, and rightly so. Then, you couldn’t handle it and tried to shut down anyone from disagreeing with you, or even a willingness to have a conversation by saying things like, “I don’t care what you think” to people who express disagreement.
Just admit, you weren’t interested in having a conversation, and just wanted to rile people up with a stupid post.
I wanted to share my opinion. Whether people get riled up or not is completely on them. No one has to read or care what I say. Can I only post here if I care what others post? Is that the point of all this? Am I not allowed to just share an opinion? I don’t think it’s trolling to express an opinion that is backed up by the numbers at Fangraphs and by respected baseball writers.
There’s not a single baseball writer who would agree with your premise that the Giants have ONE player in the top 30 in their division.
Your opinion is backed up by nothing except your own desire that the Giants were worse than they are. And if you are truly reading Fangraphs and watch as much baseball as you claim you do, then your list is even more baffling.
And for what it’s worth, you weren’t trying to state an opinion. An opinion is, “I think Avengers is a stupid and overrated movie”. Saying something like “the Giants are a bad baseball team”, which is something that can be measured, is not an opinion.
You made a statement completely removed from reality and from facts. You still have that right (thanks, 1st Amendment!), but that doesn’t make you correct or worth listening to.
It’s a good thing you don’t care what we have to say. I don’t think that’s true, but it’s whatevs.
Have a good night, and Go Giants!
Ok, that’s probably fair. I’ll own that. The giants probably have 3-4 in the top 30, probably same as Dbacks and Rockies, with rest dominated by dodgers and padre. It’s an irrelevant list. It doesnt mean anything and it’s definitely that not worth all the time wasted in this exchange. My opinion is they aren’t a good team. Fangraphs backs that up I believe. I’ll send the link if you want. Of course, the games are played on the field, not on spreadsheets or comment sections. We’ll see what happens.