The Kansas City Royals last made the playoffs in 2015. That was a good year. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, and a transcendent bullpen won the AL pennant for the second consecutive season, and they finished it off with World Series victory.
That team is the most recent Royals squad to post a winning record. They went 81-81 in 2016, 80-82 in 2017, and then the bottom fell out. They lost 100+ games in each of the next two seasons before posting a 26-34 record in this year’s shortened season. That’s a 70-win pace for a full season, definitely an improvement over back-to-back season in which they failed to crack 60 wins.
Manager Mike Matheny will need to coax a more substantial improvement from his squad if they want to compete in 2021. That’s indeed the plan, however. General Manager Dayton Moore spoke with reporters during a Zoom call today, and he made no bones about his expectations for the Royals in 2021. Moore said, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star:
“We expect to win next year. What does that look like? Is it going to be enough wins to make the playoffs? We’ll find out. Our mindset is going to be to win every single pitch, every inning, win every game. That’s the only way that we’re ever going to win another championship, you’ve got to expect to win at all aspects.”
Don’t expect the Royals to be major players in free agency, however. The small market club figures to be judicious in adding from the open market. The primary pieces of the next Royals contender are going to be developed in-house, as has been the Royals preference. They’ve long believed in their current crop of players, even as the team as a whole has struggled. Interestingly, Moore did say that he doesn’t see finances getting in the way of improving the team, should the right opportunity come along.
The Royals plan to pursue their own free agents before expanding to the open market, which would be very “Royals” of them, though returning any of Greg Holland, Ian Kennedy, Mike Montgomery, or even Trevor Rosenthal could help boost a bullpen that needs some work. The Royals have incrementally added young arms like Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, and Brady Singer to veteran Danny Duffy in the rotation. The bullpen remains a work in progress. They did, however, put forth a 3.84 ERA in 2020, a mark that ranked 8th in the majors. Losing Holland would create an opening, with first looks presumably going to Josh Staumont, Kyle Zimmer, Jesse Hahn, and Scott Barlow. That quartet present some intriguing options with which to move forward into 2021.
Otherwise, the Royals will continue to try to develop and build from within. Bobby Witt Jr., Khalil Lee, and Kyle Isbel received high praise from Moore as prospects that could turn into significant pieces. Witt was the #2 overall pick of the 2019 draft, and he has yet to play a full season in the minors.
Need to keep building the next core.
Bobby Witt Jr. LOL. You know you are old when you were not young when Bobby Witt Sr. was a rookie.
I was fairly young (10) when he was, but it still makes you feel old. Of course it also makes you feel old when you remember the fathers of two current managers (Bob Boone, Buddy Bell) when they were playing as well.
I remember Gus Bell and Ray Boone very well when they played.
Touche. Thank you for making me feel not quite so old.
mike156, I couldn’t agree more. I just did the math, and i was 37 in Bobby Sr’s first year. It reminds me of Chris Berman and his nickname of Oddibe young again McDowell.
i think they could be contenders this year if they add some punch to the lineup and add an innings eater for behind the youngsters.
Hi TC,
Can you fix the spelling error? Is it competetive or competitive?
“Dayton Moore Expects Royals To Be ‘Competetive’ In 2021”.
You could bnot understand the context?
Ah the irony of a typo in a comment defending a different typo. I love it.
The error I read was Dayton Moore expects the Royals to be competitive in 2021,Maybe 2031 they will be due again…
Two years ago, the Royals position players looked better than most gave them credit for. They had almost NO pitching.
Last season, the position players seemed to digress while the pitching began to show some signs of emerging.
The Royals are not one or two players away from a winning season.
I think the word you were looking for there was “regress” not “digress,” Mr. Malaprop.
Well, that’s a jerk response. We can tell what he meant from the context. Clowning people on a baseball message board for their word choice and assigning “clever” nicknames to them is just wack and unnecessary. Says way more about you than it does about the other person.
Sorry if I offended you. I was just kidding around. As far as your opinion of me, I could not care less. Have a nice day.
I don’t agree. I think they are literally 1 signing away from being a contender – if they can stay healthy – and that’s the big “if”. Health has been a problem for several Royals – Soler, Perez, Dozier, and Cordero all missed significant time in 2020. Cordero has yet to play a full season – but when healthy – he looks like a Superstar. Perez missed all of 2019 – but when healthy in 2020, was a beast. Soler has played a full season only 1 time in 7 years..
A healthy Cordero should start in 2021, eliminating the offensive hole that was Starling / Philips in CF.
Lopez and Mondesi hurt this team in 2020 – but they are both young. Defensively, there’s no better duo in MLB. Mondesi closed out strong at the plate. Lopez has hit +.400 in AAA so he’s got potential to hit. He’ll be 26 in March. 2021 will be better.
That leaves Left Field – where Alex Gordon was a huge offensive hole in 2020. That’s where the Royals can make a change. They have Kyle Isbel in the system -but they really should sign someone to fill that spot. Ideally, someone with some utility who can play multiple positions (if injury curse continues) and comes with a .330-350 OBP to help the team offensively. While there’s been a lot of talk of signing Jackie Bradley, Jr., Robbie Grossman, or Joc Pederson – none of these free agents come with utility and all are limited offensively.
I think the Royals should go strong after Jurickson Profar. Profar comes with utility having played every infield and outfield position. Profar comes with an OBP over three seasons of .335, .305, .343. The middle year looks like a fluke – a .218 BABIP including 12 GDP is not his normal game. Lot of bad luck. His BABIP was .293 in 2020 and .269 in 2018. I think 2018 is the most accurate projection.
@Jacobpaul81 You have one major well two major problems with the Royals. 1st Mike Mathey,They should give any team of his three extra pitchers a year during the competitive balance trade because he will wear them out, Second you’re in Kansas City a small park at club in the AL East and dude you’re not gonna make it. Big money being spent there.
The AL Central will have a LOT of great talent on the mound for the years to come!
Not complaining, because Baseball Reference is phenomenal; however, do you guys get the overwhelming amount of ads?
I have Ad Blocker, so no I don’t.
Damn fine typo there in the title, damn fine.
Also, to hell with Mr. Whit Merrifield – he always hits bombs on me in MLB The Show for Playstation 4 console
Hopefully, the Royals have been reading the Rays book on how to build a winning, low-cost MLB team.
After 2015, maybe the Rays need to read the Royals book.
DM has just been a complete idiot ever since the world series win. The Royals are nowhere near competitive. You’re gonna need at least 2 more years before even thinking about making the postseason. Not to mention how competitive the AL Central is already.
When 16 teams make the “playoffs”, everyone thinks they can be “competitive”.
I think it’s gonna be 14 next year
When 16 teams make the playoffs, everyone IS competitive. Most teams weren’t eliminated this year until the final week of the season.
the Pirates would like to have a word
Most
You realize after a 3-10 start the royals were .500 right? Without that start they make the playoffs. So, yes Im sure they think the team is very close to making the playoffs
Yeah, that’s how it works, Effinstephen: when you remove all of your team’s losses, they magically become a winning team.
Except you can’t do that in real life.
Another unnecessarily rude response. I don’t think the Royals will be close to .500 next year myself, but the poster’s point was that the Royals finished the season strong. They weren’t making a ridiculous claim, and there’s no need to respond so condescendingly.
The OP claimed that the Royals are “very close to making the playoffs.” That’s a direct quote from their post. They were arguing that the Royals are a team that is ready for contention. That is absolutely not the case. It’s not rude to say that.
That may be true in a normal season, but not a severely shortened one, A bad start can be overcome in a 162 game season. In fact, the Nats, at one point in 2019 was 19 and 31, and they went on to win the WS. A bad start in a 60 game season is a lot tougher to overcome.
You are absolutely right. Its crazy to think they promote highly touted prospects and start winning more with other highly touted prospects on way. next year that they wont be more competitive. Because no prospect has ever gotten better after their first year. Considering that they could potentially have 3 top 100 prospects from last 2 years in the rotation singer, jackson, lynch oh and bubic who Led minor league baseball in strike outs last full minor league season and keller all in the rotation. That they wouldn’t be better than kennedy, Duffy, junis Keller and Montgomery..
The lineup has loads of potential if they add a few guys to lengthen it out like Moore as said before. They also have extreme flexibility with guys like whit and dozier that can play multiple positions about who they can go after in free agency and trades.
Lets not forget that they bullpen is extremely young and showed they have what it takes and many other prospects on.the way
so yes a team that started out slow replaced stop gap vets with the prospects and went .500 ball afterwards would think they can be competitive. Like I said you take out the START NOT ALL LOSES aka nationals they would have made the playoffs.
Also they have every little financial commitment after this year. So with all teams losing money last year they are in better shape to add than most teams.
Do some actual research and look things up.before you.go on a tantrum and just assume This team is bad based on records.
Let me be perfectly clear with you: the Royals have some good prospects, and they could be a playoff contender in a few years as long as their front office makes the right decisions. When I criticize the Royals, I am not criticizing their future. I am criticizing the current Royals roster that will not be competitive until at best 2022 or 2023.
However, having good prospects does not equal a good team. How many times do I have to tell you that the Royals were not a good team last year? They went Central, the same division that sent seven teams to the playoffs but only managed to win two playoff games. They don’t have any stars on offense(Salvador Perez hits well for a catcher, and Whit Merrifield is a valuable player, but they are not offensive stars). For the pitchers, there are some talented young players, but nobody has been able to establish themselves as a star. Sure, some of your young players could improve by next year, but A) there is no guarantee that will happen, and B) even if some players improve, you still won’t have a competitive roster.
Furthermore, the Royals had a negative 24 run differential last year. That means that they deserved their losing record, and that there wouldn’t be any positive regression to the mean in a full season. If they played 162 games, the Royals would continue to be a losing team.
And lastly, I want to address your point that the Royals did well after the first 13 games of the season. You are literally saying that they had 47 good games. That’s not even a third of a full season, but you use that as proof that the Royals are legit playoff contenders. Let me tell you something: teams in the Royals position can play well over a 47 game stretch, but that play is not sustainable over a full season. And even in those 47 games, the Royals still managed to have a losing record. Do your research; the Royals are not good right now.
That 47 game base is a better representative of the current roster than the first 13 games. In that 47 games that had a plus run differential.
Offensively they also have soler that 2 years ago won the home run title and hunter dozier that hit 26. Raul lead league in steals and once he got his timing went on a terror. (Winning player of the week the last week of season.) Also like I said Moore said biggest priority is hitting(first time I can remember him saying this. Its always been pitching)
We wont have Kennedy(9 ERA), Lopez back(6.69) or Matt harvey(11.57 ERA) which is an addition by subtraction. The only real hit in free agency is Holland and there is mutual interest in bringing him back. Junis more than likely wont make the rotation (near 7 ERA). Will be coming out of pen.
This team is a hell of a lot like 2012 royals than people can see just based off record.
The rotation of Keller duffy singer bubic and a FA vet could help sustain a lesser offense with whit soler dozier Perez Franco Raul and more than likely a couple free agents for outfield and 2nd base.
Good for you! Well said…
Royals 2020 Record against opponents:
0-3 vs. Brewers
1-9 vs. White Sox
1-3 vs. Cubs
5-5 vs. Indians
5-5 vs. Twins
3-3 vs. Cardinals
2-2 vs. Reds
6-4 vs. Tigers
3-0 vs. Pirates
As for Run Differential:
White Sox – 34.
Brewers – 11.
Everyone else +21
The Royals run differential and losses are heavily weighted towards one team: White Sox. That one team accounted for 16.7% of the Royals 2020 games. In a normal season… they account for 11.7%.
If we take the 2020 wins and project that out, adding back in the 5% for the White Sox – that’s 77 wins. The Royals had a lot of toss-ups that went to their opponents – like Aug 4th (Cubs) and Aug 11th (Reds). Those toss-ups could easily be wins with a slightly improved OBP. That could be as many as 5-10 games over a season. Now we’re talking 82-87 wins. That’s a playoff team. Insert some of their up-at-coming prospect pitchers – maybe the young guns knock down the run differential some more.
I literally think the Royals are one OF with a respectable 330-350 OBP away from being very competitive.
Some good young arms but probably need a veteran anchor in the rotaion and some bullpen help. Offense is suspect. Jorge Soler looked like his 2018 self rather than 2019. Mondesi took a step back. Lopez can’t hit. O’Hearn can’t hit. Perez and Merrifield are solid. They don’t know what to do with Dozier. Franco took a step in the right direction and Cordero and Olivares are interesting but to compete with the Twins, White Sox and to a likely lesser extent the Indians the Royals are going to need several upgrades or a lot of luck
I think they would a good landing spot for a guy like Anthony DeSclafani. He has experience leading a young staff on a losing team and also has experience at the back end of a competitive rotation. Plus, his numbers should improve moving from GABP to Kauffmann as well.
I see Boston signing DeScalfini this offseason along with another starter like Garett Richards. The Red Sox are going to be very active in the free agent market but most likely on the mid-tier and low-tier side. They might splurge on bullpen arms though. Would love to see them take Rosenthal off of the Royals hands too.
KC just needs to stay the course and develop their youngsters. Aca Lacy has ace potential written all over him. Witt should be a plus player as well. They’ve already brought up Singer and he looks like he can be a solid 2 or 3 for years to come. If they can build a dominant pitching staff, it’s easy to build out the rest.
In fairness, every top 5 pick has superstar potential, that’s why they are top 5 picks. Of course, the actual amount that reach that superstar potential is probably 20% or so.
Besides, signing a vet like DeSclafani will not inhibit KC developing talent. And if that talent is unable to take the job of a vet like DeSclafani, then maybe they don’t deserve to be in the majors at all.
PS – Rosenthal is on the Padres not the Royals.
Some Top 5 picks are picked in the Top 5 because they’d be willing to sign. Not necessarily because they were a consensus Top 5 pick. To say every Top 5 pick has superstar potential would not be true.
Shrek: Like that’s ever gonna happen! *flush*
Alright. All they need to do to compete is upgrade 1B, 2B, SS, CF, get 2 TOR pitchers and they’re good. =D
1b is set with Dozier, Nicky Lopez was a gold glove finalist at 2b but needs to improve his bat. If he can be anywhere close to league average he’ll be fine. We have Mondesi at SS, and hopefully 2 or 3 of Singer/Lynch/Bubic/Kowar/Lacy become top of the rotation starters. I don’t think Dayton is saying he expects to win a World Series in 2021, but there is at least potential at every position going into next year with a few known quantities like Soler, Whit, Salvy, Dozier, and Franco. I could easily see a scenario where the Royals are in contention for a playoff spot late in the year. I could also see a scenario where we lose 100 games. Time will tell..
I don’t expect the Royals to compete for a Division title in 2021, although they do have some interesting young players. I expect it’s more likely they will compete with the Tigers for 4th place.
Whit Merrifield is a hitting machine. Perhaps they should extend him two or three years or trade him to accelerate the rebuilding process? His option year is 2023 and he’s 31 now. I’d be interested in what Royals fans think of this.
Witt Jr better be a star. low budget teams (thanks mlb and mlbpa) cannot afford to miss on its draft picks. although no team can, teams like the Royals/Rays etc, will have a much greater impact if they don’t hit on their picks. Just another reason proving the unlevel financial playing field in baseball, has short term and long term ramifications.
I’ve said this before. The royals are closer than most people give them credit for. I could see them being next year’s 2018 Braves.
Add a starter and a corner outfielder then yeah. Maybe a couple buy low relievers
Sort of nonsensical….What else do you expect a GM to say in an offseason? ‘Yeah, um….we dont expect to compete:??
That said, the Royals WILL NOT be competetive in 2021. Way too much talent above them in the AL central to even flirt witht he notion of contention right now.
Dayton Moore is a terrible GM. Winning organizations don’t have Dayton Moore’s. 3 winning season don’t out weigh so many disaster seasons.
How does a GM with 11 out of 14 years of losing baseball and 3 100 loss season keep his job? Anyone could do that well. With no baseball background. It shows the Royals ownership since Kauffman only cares about making money and little about winning baseball. KC deserves so much better. Great fans in KC
Moore took over a team that was horrifically bad. Historically bad. After he took over they increased wins while building the best farm system in the league. They won a championship team and kept loyal to his players. It didnt work out so they started a rebuild. Because of the championship team that depleted the farm system they started over. The team now have a top 10 farm system and has very talented and interesting young players on the team. So hes Proven to build a team from scratch and has started to repeat that same formula again.
That he why he still has a job and will continue to have one.
The royals owner spent while they were competitive to the point he admitted to losing money in back to back years but still increased payroll to keep that team and compete. They had 150 million dollar payroll which almost put them in the top 10 payroll.