JANUARY 30: The Blue Jays have announced the deal.
JANUARY 26: The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.
Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of the December 2014 Jeff Samardzija deal. For the next three seasons, Semien produced like a second-division starter, averaging 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that hike in value, however, came on the defensive end.
His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether another hulk-out season is coming. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a high-floor player with potential for more.
Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: 
subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive scores (at least since 2018) by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. For that matter, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays. They can now continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more to likely start most games at first. That foursome – Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, and Biggio – has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.
This isn’t the first firework Toronto has lit this winter. Their lineup now features a well-fed George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood will help the bullpen, and don’t forget that the offseason began with the Jays keeping Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is projected around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent a spending increase, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payroll has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.
In terms of value, the Jays did well to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he’ll make slightly more in total dollars than we expected. Seeing Andrelton Simmons sign for $7.5MM less might feel disheartening at first, but Semien has the higher ceiling, and if nothing else, Toronto maintains the long-term integrity of the plan to keep Bichette at short by adding Semien over Simmons. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, and Bichette has as good a chance as any of them to stick at short.
At second, Semien should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore and Simmons in Minnesota, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Didi Gregorius is now the top option still available in free agency, with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto behind him.
For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I like this move
Not for $18M
Not my money
Yup I agree first thing I say
Shouldn’t matter if it’s your money or not. Think like a gm not a stupid fan. If they spend less, that’s more to give to other players.
With that said. It’s a great deal. All 1 year deals are great and every 6 year deal is horrible. Hopefully jays can void that Springer deal and they’ll be the winter of the offseason instead of the current loser.
Especially a 1 year deal. Doesn’t affect Bo’s long term displacement off SS, but they can give him a year at 2B if they want or they can play Semien there.
Jays are the wealthiest team in baseball. They don’t spend to the luxury, so in order entice players to come to Canada they have to overpay them. This is a decent signing.
They still need starting pitching, which means they will not be a playoff team this year if there is a season.
The players and organization also has to deal with dreadful Canadian taxes
It is the worst in the league, by 1% over California, & ~2.5% over DC & NY.
So that puts them in line with 7 other teams, at least.
Cost of living would come into effect too, but those numbers are more difficult to calculate.
Uhhhh….. buddy, Isn’t the idea of having available budget precisely so that you can go out and sign a Marcus Semien? He was in everyone’s “top 10 free agents” list!
And besides, even after adding Semien, the Jays are still only spending $120 million — middling in MLB payrolls, and a long, -long- ways away from the luxury tax threshold. They’d have to spend another, like, $25 million just to catch up to their 2015/2016 levels!
There is definitely going to be a season, and lots of stadiums will have fans in the stands.
1 year 18m is no-lose. If they were planning on landing a 30m guy, they wouldn’t have spent 18m here. Not like they’ll realize they spent themselves out of Bauer or whatever tomorrow.
Also, the taxes in Canada are outrageous.
Why spend 18 million on a one year contract to wait? They are buying and playing to win.
They were a playoff team last year. And they have improved. Not sure what your point is.
Paying taxes is a patriotic civic duty (even in Canada), but you patriots in Boston already know that I’m sure.
@iverbure, “think like a GM not a stupid fan..”
These are words you should follow.
#You–You’re Not Bright
exactly. rogers has the money, and it’s nice that they’re kinda acting like a big market team again.
No, that’s just the providence vs states tax. Federal taxes are significantly higher. One breakdown I saw showed players actually make about 4-6% less in that tax bracket, which is significant when contracts are in the tens of millions.
I believe they only pay taxes for their home games though so any difference is split in half.
For baseball players, yes. For others the answer is more complicated. Here’s a quote from the best neutral article I could find (from Investopedia):
“Using an average is also problematic as the very poor and the very rich skew it on both ends. In general, lower-income Canadians pay less in tax for the services they receive and rich Americans are better off than rich Canadians.”
investopedia.com/financial-edge/0411/do-canadians-…
Rob m I’m much smarter than you and more knowledge about baseball and it’s not debatable. So if I’m not bright doesn’t look good for you.
There are no such things as bad one year deals
There is such a thing as a bad one year deal if it prohibits you from making a better, more sound deal. Or misreading the market on a one year deal.
What if, and hear me out, that he tries to think like an agent and not like a GM? Is it still a great deal?
But not in Toronto, they won’t let teams in.
The top federal income tax rate in Canada is 33%. The top rate in the United States is 37%. The top provincial tax rate in Ontario is 13.7%. That’s what makes for the larger tax hit for Blue Jays players. Last year, they only had to pay U.S. income taxes because they didn’t play in Canada.
Athletes playing in the US pay state taxes in every jurisdiction where they play, including road games, provided that the state they play in has a state income tax. Some US cities also impose a municipal tax on visiting players.
They pay taxes in Canadian dollars while getting paid American dollars, I cant’ imagine the taxes are the same as they were 10-20 years ago. The Canadian Dollar is at 0.78 to the American one.
At 1 year who cares if it’s $18 million. With so little committed it’s affordable
Exactly. They could pay someone $40 million for one year. They have the room this year
there’s someone out there they should pay $50 million for one year for.
No such thing as a bad 1 year contract. Considering the jays can crank it up to 165m and have little commitment for the next 3 years (when the core starts hitting arb) anything under 3 years is an easy sign.
So then why don’t they sign Bauer 2/$80m if they have so much room.
I was just thinking that no bad one year contracts
Still a possibility if Bauer would agree.
I think that the jays are looking at short term pitching contracts to bridge the gap to the prospects coming up… SWR, Manoah, Kloffenstein, maybe one of the AAAA pitchers takes a step forward… plus that Pearson guy might be good.
Because they are a team built on culture and he’s a shitshow……IMO…….but they have been talking with him…..even after Springer deal so maybe 1 year and 1 roller over coles value considering they will have to give up a pick. But then Bauer shows he’s a man of his convictions by signing a one year deal and won’t have the pick attached next year
Roller = dollar (auto correct)
He is a FA he decides at the end of the day, you know this if you are commenting on a baseball site. If you don’t then…….
Bauer has openly expressed his desire to play on 1 year deals. I think the two main sticking points would be playing in Canada and playing against AL East teams regularly.
Really, why in the world would you care what the Blue Jays spend for a single year of a player who will make them better?
Proceed.
Because Semien doesn’t make them better.
Care to elaborate?
Good luck. All his takes are garbage
Care to elaborate Nebraska?
@Guests, of course he does. He’s now one of the 26 members of the Blue Jays, pushing off a weaker player, while overall increasing the talent base. This is simple stuff.
#You–You’re Not Bright
What a little man you are to be so rude @steve
Agreed
He has 1 season with an OPS over .800- .892 in 2019. 18 million for a guy coming off a year with an ops under .700 who has only had one decent year. This is truly crazy because what other team was going give Semien even 15 million? They are paying him Lemeihieu money. The Blue Jays have replaced the Mets as the team to overpay for players nobody else is interested in.
The 2020 jays lineup is not anything close to what Oakland put up the last 6 years.
He doesn’t have to carry the load, just chip in, will probably hit 6-7, and will most likely push to make this a prove it deal so he can reticle the market. This is win win win. I would take 1 with Semien over the 3/4 turner would have taken
Semien played hurt last year. It was 60 games. He brings positive value defensively and positive value on the base paths. MLB trade rumors had him at 1 and 14. If the Jays overpaid by a couple mil to get the player so be it. They have the payroll room. They’ll get that payroll back next year. The Jays feel he’s closer to the player from 2019. Steamer projects him to have a .780 OPS next year.
All knowing huh?
After a cold start he had a 775 ops the rest of the way but hey judge it on 2 weeks of play in a short season. Guess you would have DFA’d Edwin in 2014 when his first month was crappy and watched him hit 14 hrs in May for another team.
I agree @allknow… it’s a gross overpay and lacks value. Also, some on here are also right as it’s not our money. But you have to overpay to go to Canada for many reasons already mentioned …it’s just a boring signing with minimal impact IMO.
$18M/yr on a long term contract would be terrible, but it’s fair enough for a one year contract for a guy who was 3rd in the MVP vote in the last full season.
$18MM for one year works for me. Blue Jays have the money.
It’s one year and doesn’t affect their long term flexibility
And actually i thinks its per Carlos Baerga not Heyman
At 18 million sike!
Great signing by the Blue Jays. The Jays will probably have a great season next year. Good for them.
Not unless they add pitching
Yankees got to be sweating now.
One solid RHSP like Tanaka and you’re right.
So basically got the QO.
The QO was 18.9.
How the A’s allowed him to slip away and without compensation is beyond me.
Well, given that he just signed a 1/18 deal, that makes it clear that 1) he probably would have accepted the QO and 2) the A’s didn’t want to pay him that much.
Yawn
I pooped when I saw this. I was conveniently on the toilet.
I loled pretty hard at this^
Yeah I did too lol
Hope you washed before you typed. TMI.
Why would my hands be dirty? Who says I wipe?
Bidet life
If I just try a widdle harder…I just might make it! I can be a big time star!
What if he didn’t wipe before typing but after pooping? I think that would be acceptable also.
Pic?
At my age, I pee every morning without fail at 5AM……Of course, I don’t get up til 7AM….
(thanx, Sophia Petrillo)
(and kudoos if you even remember Sophia Petrillo)…
@bobtillman
Don’t feel bad, I’m in my early 30s and I wake up to piss every morning around 230-245. It’s incredibly frustrating, I do drink a lot of water and coffee however.
@Mrtwotone — Check your blood sugar levels, that can be an early sign of diabetes risk.
wtf is going on here?
We’re learning about the human body lol
No one cares. The first guy was making a joke.
I can’t stop laughing at tips comment. I swear I can hear my dad saying these exact words.
Estelle Getty – Golden Girls
Give that man a cannoli.
Come on man. Give me a break.
Blue Jay’s getting better and better
Still lack the pitching but yeah dangerous team for sure
@Ryan Wheeler Hey aren’t you a former DBacks top prospect bust?
Or is a a former mma fighter who went to jail for putting his father in a wheel chair
10 bucks says he signs with the Astros in 20 minutes.
Please don’t speak it into existence
Hahahahaha. Well played
This just in, Marcus Semien to the Astros
BUT OUTTA NOWHERE THE ASTROS HAVE JUST SIGNED MARCUS SEMIEN!!!
No one is laughing.
$18 million for one year? No, thanks.
Who cares if its 27 million for 1 year, its just 1 year. It only means Rogers made 1.456 billion in profit instead of 1.465 billion this year
Not my money
I love how the fair weather Jays fans espoused the “be patient” narrative, now it’s the “who cares” line. Keep on watching Sportsnet, they’ll let you know what to think next.
The Jays are obviously trying to make a push this year. They have so much salary room right now that this won’t impact their other moves and for 1 year it doesn’t impact their future plans either. That’s their point when they say who cares. There’s no negative to the 1 year 18 mill contract on the teams short or long term outlook
Nothing like explaining the obvious, jbs. I live in eastern Canada, I know all about the come-and-go, Sportsnet spoon-fed ways of the average Jays fan. Suddenly $18 million is trivial? Right on.
But it is Trivial, it’s not going to affect anything this off-season, it’s not going to stop them from adding a SP (Bauer or Paxton) it won’t preclude them from anything next year as again it’s 1 year.
It likely will bring them plenty of revenue as even Fairweather fans will tune in and subscribe to the various sports/MLB packages offered by Rogers
Not really understanding the negativity when looking at it logically (including my other responses on other comments to avoid yet another long ass post)
Hard to make a push with little quality SP.
All one year contracts are trivial for a team that has plenty of flexibility on this year’s payroll. The thing to worry about is contracts that will cost a lot during the years all their young players get big arbitration raises.
I don’t think any “Fair weather” fans are chiming in on this site
But you spent money on a subscription to a free website so you must be all knowing
Match.com, check it out
Fair weather fans rarely recognize one another – it’s part of their charm. What you call “spent money” I call contributing to a website I check daily. Some of us are cheap, some ain’t. Some of us need online dating, big guy, some of us don’t. Sharpen up those comebacks, sunshine.
30 Parks
I love how the bandwagon fanboys such as yourself want to push all in at the first sign of success and sell the farm for a 2-3 year window.
Love to respond to your comment, Marko, but it makes so little sense I wouldn’t know where to start. Maybe write your comments out on paper first – break the task into smaller doses. Be patient, you’ll figure baseball out one day. The average Jays fan is adorable.
30
Sticking to the arrogance I see. With no substantive insight into your great baseball wisdom. Do enlighten us, what approach would you have taken this off season? Or can you only insult us Life Long Jays fans without making a counter point. Was my initial comment too complicated for you to understand?
Why does any fan care what their ball club pays for a player. Just field a good team.
Because spending too much on a player or players can prohibit that. I don’t think this does, but in general that’s why they care. It’s really not hard to understand.
If anything you’ve outed yourself as a fair weather fan. I’ll bet you complained when they weren’t spending money and now that they are it’s apparently too much.
Oakland will be missed his club house presence. His upbeat demeanor and durability made Semien a valuable member for the young, talented athletics…
*quelle surprise*
What position will he play? He’s not taking over SS from Bichette I hope.
Ah edited after my post. But good move for the Jays.
It will be interesting to see what this does to the market for Gregorius and Simmons, now that there are only 2 higher end shortstops left, and the Reds, As, and Phillies still needing upgrades at that position.
Good call. And Galvis is off the board as the fallback for whoever loses out. Hopefully Oakland loses out just because they are our rivals.
They need Jake Odorizzi a lot more. They have payroll room, wonder who they get for SP.
Offense of good good
Walker and The Big Maple
Who runs this site? the CCP?
Close. The CCC. A lot of people don’t know that mlbtraderumorsdotcom was founded during FDR’s New Deal, to give out of work financial webloggers jobs until the Great Depression was over.
Of course, weblogging was all offline in those days.
Good signing but it should have been 18 million for 2 years.
It was $18M Canadian; so roughly $7M American.
Jays pay everyone in US dollars. Always have, always will
nice takedown of our neighbors up north…
Pay American and tax Canadian.
Where does this come from……..you pay tax based on when where you play. So if the game is in nyc you pay nyc tax, and this year all the jays games are played in fla,
So if it was in Toronto players pay 82 games worth of Tax in Ontario’s tax bracket- but not the other 82 games and I understand they factor in grapefruit time as a percentage of pay…..
This assumption is a little like assuming braves players are paid in peaches
Seems like a bit of an overlay but as the saying goes, there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal
Pitiful. Semien is not worthy of this kind of deal. Would have rather taken my chances with a bad Vladdy defending the hot corner.
And those who thought Tanaka at $20-mil for 1 year was a reach….
Ha.. have you seen Vlad play defense? Might as well use Kirk at 3rd.
Perfect. Kirk at 3B it is.
They could’ve signed LaStella for half of that. They could have signed Todd Frazier for 1/3 of that….for the same productivity! If not better! Sorry, not a huge fan of Semien. Great 2019, nothingness outside of that.
It’s a one-year deal, if it doesn’t work out it’s nbd. Why are you so upset?
If he provides even half the value of 2019 (which is in line with projections), you get 3-4 WAR player. He significantly improves our infield defense, which is horrendous, and on top of that only 1 year deal. I think this is a great signing.
Sign Lastella too! Great bench bat
Because there are players out there who are better than Semien. Guys like Wong. If you are going to pay a player a ton of money they better be good. Semien is not that good.
Pepe, if Semien gives his non-2019 production it will have been a bust signing that provides very little. There are better guys for less out there still available.
His non-2019 production is 3.9 WAR in 2018 and ~3.6 in a normal 2020, I’ll take that in a heartbeat. Given his production from the last 3 years and being 30 years old, there’s no reason to believe he’ll have less than 3 WAR year in 2021. And again, one year deal.
And maybe the Jays tried to make an offer to those players, and they refused. Just because someone is available doesn’t mean they’ll sign in Toronto.
I’d take Wong for 2-years plus an option over Semien. I’d take LaStella over Semien.
He’s been over 3.5 war twice in his career. In 8 seasons.
Only once has he topped .735 OPS in a season. Once.
Awful decision to sign a non-impact player.
Wong has had one season with a WAR over 3.5 in the last 8 seasons too, so what’s your point?
Wong is better than Semien is my point. Defensively without question, and Wong is lefty which is something the team lacks.
@GuestsHere
If the Bryant/Hendricks was pure noise, I was hopefully on Wong as well. The gold glove up the middle would have been huge.
But I’ll take this. Semien has much to prove. He gains future value by taking 2nd. And is a back up if Bo is unable to remain on the field.
Dude, come on. If you were manufacturing a team you would not take Colton Wong over Semien.
For what it is worth depth charts/steamer/zips all have him being worth 3+ War.
Semien 2b -Biggio 3b ( most abs there ) is much better then Shaw3b and Biggio 2b to start 2020.
1 Year deal that doesn’t block one of the young infield prospects .
Still room to add pitching
Wong is a lefty hitter and better 2B defender. Yes I’d take him over Semien.
Pretty close call there. Lefty bat factor is pretty huge. Something has to give in that area?
What about the SS injury insurance in the Wong case? Espinal? Having Semien allows the team some pretty great coverage for off days, injuries, yips.
You hit the nail on the head. With B/U SS now covered maybe they leave Espinol off the roster allowing them to get a lefty bench bat or add another RP to the mix.
Guests my Man, I hope he proves you wrong. Cant stand negative half empty types like you. Hoping you have to eat your words. Or get hit by a slow moving 300 pound bicyclist. Either or
A simple Google search will tell you that there’s virtually no statistical argument for Wong being a better overall player than Semien. What are you on about?
It’s one year, price is irrelevant given our payroll, we could still sign Bauer and overpay for Paxton or Walker while still probably being under the “tax”.
Smart depth signing in case Bichette gets hurt (please no, fingers crossed) at least there’s a ML caliber SS on the roster and not a AAAA Espinal or unproven Rookie like Martin taking over for 60 games.
Solves the 3B problem as Biggio certainly looked better than Vlad regardless of limited appearances.
Biggio probably sits VS LH now while Vlad plays 3B and Hernandez gets reps at 1ST and DH (while serving as a 4th OF) if the roster stays as is for position players
Smarter than trading Groshans for Bryant or Arenado, can just sign Bryant as a FA next year if his stock improves and save the prospects (rightfully so) to get a real T.O.R pitcher(s)
“It’s only one year”
Semien sucks. How about re-signing Travis Shaw to $12-mil? Or how about calling Aaron Sanchez and handing him $7-mil. It’s only “one season”, afterall.
I think we found the guy whose wife cheated on him with Marcus Semien
Shaw being a LH backup INF option would be better than Espinal.
Sanchez as a reclamation project accepting a BP role (which he fits best) wouldn’t be all that bad
Even at the prices you mentioned we could still sign Bauer on a high AAV 123 year deal and be below the cap, or sign Paxton and Walker to short term incentive laden deals.
None of those things garuntee a winning or losing season but are still logical baseball moves while still being able to contend and leave flexibility long term , including prospect depth.
Adding a few million here or there on short term deals will only ever hurt your profits short term, and an owner like Rogers can absorb those hits easily as long as it’s not multiple 6 7 9 13 year mega deals to the wrong guys (Hello Yankees fans)
Espinal defends, Shaw does not. Shaw also cannot run or play middle infield.
It’s perfectly reasonable to not like Semien for 18 million dollars. For one thing, that’s a huge chunk of change for a 2B. And for another, Semien has 1 outlier year on his career. This screams Zack Cozart, who the Angels signed to play another position after his 1 good offensive season. Yes, it’s only for a year—so that obviously mitigates downside. but that doesn’t mean it was the best way to allocate funds. Wong has a GG @ 2B. This is probably his rate for 2 years. And He might be more productive next year.
What
Do you member when Shawn almost got the jays summer camp cancelled running his mouth on Twitter about Covid
Shaw was a flyer on a one year player, roll of the dice, hope we’re not competing so we can trade him come the deadline. If they have thought there was going to be extended playoffs last year no way they sign shaw
I too would prefer wong over Semien I think he fits on this current roster better. I don’t think he accepts a 1 year deal and if bo gets hurt nobody to man SS.
Given they wasted all that money on Springer though who isn’t much of a CF upgrade I’d be quite pleased with any 1 year signing so they avoid anymore landmines.
They’ve wanted to get more left handed since Bautista hit in the middle of the lineup, why can’t they seem to find some starters who hit left handed? They also didn’t improve the defence all that much either in my opinion.
Great signing by the Buffalo Blue Jays
Well…still need a 3B and some SP and they’ll be scary in the AL East
They just got their 3b… Semien.
Semien will be their everyday 2B it says … not 3B …
…Biggio…
Their outfield is full, and they have Biggio at 2nd. So he will be their 3B.
Edit: I’m sorry, I see it now. So I guess Biggio moves to 3B?
so their 3B is Biggio then
He is the 3B.
Yeah the article posted it late, he will be the everyday 2B…still leaves 3B for Vlad or perhaps Biggio? If Vlad can improve his D that would be awesome but I won’t hold my breath. And I don’t know if Biggio is capable of playing there. So 3B has lots of question marks still.
Probably Biggio.
The real question mark is who’s assessing the talent at the major league level? Because they just blew a ton of money on a glorified utility player. Re-check Semien’s numbers and take away 2019. You’d never pay him $18-mil for three seasons, let alone one.
Biggio did play some 3B in the minors.
I don’t think Bichette played any.
Worth taking a chance on for one season, it’s pretty low risk. Try likely didn’t have much chance to sign Bauer anyway, and still have plenty of money to throw at some SPs. It’s all falling into place, still lots of talent available through FA and trade.
This is a dumb comment. You can’t pick and choose which years to consider. They all count. Also all great free agents almost always get overpaid. They have earned the right to become a FA and this is the cost to acquire them. You have to pay to play when it comes to FA. You have to because it does not cost any minor leaguers to get these guys. Plus on top of everything his defense is elite.at SS. It will be elite at 2B too.
You keep saying to take away his 2019 season. Why? Why doesn’t an amazing season (the last full MLB season played, no less) not count?
Semien d is not elite
He’s only going to second because he’s so much worse at third. However nobody’s seen much of him at second in recent years so who knows?
Would have certainly been better for Jays to get solid starter at third, but that money in the budget wasn’t going to spend itself so here we have another contract on the books.
Or signed Kolten Wong. He’s better and would not cost $18-mil. Probably $18-mil for 2.
Who’s playing 3B?
So let’s create this immaculate lineup…
Springer
Bichette
Guriell
Guerrero
Hernandez
Semien
Biggio
Tellez
Jansen
Idk the Jays lineup structure that well, and I left Grichuk off because I didn’t know what to do. This team is nasty now.
Semien bats 9-hole on this squad. Anything above 8th is a gift from the heavens.
Roster Resource has him batting second.
Not that I know. It will all depend on what version you get.
The non-2019 version makes him a 9-hole hitter who’s probably better suited to be on the bench but paid like a superstar. This signing trumps your Angels when they threw money at Cahill and Harvey a couple years ago.
Semien is in far better shape than Harvey was. Cahill actually looked like a decent signing at the time.
Pitching?
This team is nasty despite their weak starting pitching. Their bullpen is good as well. This is a good team.
You gush about every team on every post. “yay!” over and over again. But someday, awe shucks, you can be a big star! I bet you can throw a football over them mountains!
Why bother with pitching? Tanner Roark is all they need.
NYY have a better lineup than that.
Bull….Not even if they are healthy is this true and we all know they won’t be. Yankees sooooo over-rated. #jealousofyoungJays?.
Yankees lineup is better, I promise you no one over here is jealous bud.
With much more injury risk.
Last year in 60 games the Yanks scored 14 more runs ,and the Jays added Springer/Semien .
The Yankees tread water.
Biggio will not be left in the bottom third of order. I think they keep him leadoff and bat Springer third. Move everyone else down one and insert Tellez after Guriell or Vlad.
Here’s the most likely lineups and Combos for defense
Likely opening day lineup and everyday ideal batting order as currently constructed
1. Biggio (3rd)
2. Bichette (SS)
3. Springer (CF)
4. Vlad (1st)
5. Gurriel (LF)
6. Hernandez (DH)
7. Semien (2nd)
8. Grichuk (RF)
9. Jansen (C)
Ideal defensive construction
1. Biggio (3rd)
2. Bichette (SS)
3. Springer (CF)
4. Vlad (DH)
5. Gurriel (LF)
6. Tellez (1st)
7. Semien (2nd)
8. Gurriel (RF)
9. Jansen (C)
Vlad DH brings Tellez in for improved D, Grichuk is a better RF than Hernandez but you can always play Hernandez in RF and is a better fit there than CF or LF, while improving the offense
Many more combos available if injuries strike or days off are required, you have room to deal from the OF, C, and prospects
Biggio can play all over, Semien is insurance at SS, Vlad will get reps at 3rd albeit not many. Anyone can play a passable 1B in a pinch, OF is decent. Jansen and Kirk are a solid backstop combo.
Just need a true Ace and there’s no reason we can’t contend or win if things bounce our way more than not
@1981
I’m in step with just about everything you’ve posted in this thread
Gurriel might be both their best defensive LF and their best defensive RF, but that’s a big ask for him to play both simultaneously.
@Rangers29
Last year it was Biggio then Bichette with Jansen at the bottom.
Everything in between was mixed up almost everyday.
Montoyo’s style.
Top 3 will be Biggio, Springer and Bechette no doubt but the order is up in the air. Hernandez and Gurriel are 4 & 5 so maybe
4.Hernandez
5.Gurriel
6.Vlad
7.Tellez
8.Semein
9.Catcher
Too many RHH in this line up and thats with Tellez everyday they would be wise to make a trade
They aren’t going to bat the only two lefties they have back to back. Biggio probably leads off by the way or hits 2nd.
I really like Semien, and I think this will be a good deal for the Buffalo Blue Jays. However, I don’t understand why Semien wants to be a free agent next year with the all-star shortstop free agent class coming up. He will be the sixth best option available next year.
The only downside I can think of for this signing is that this might preclude the Blue Jays from going after Bauer, which would probably help them a lot more than getting Semien.
My thoughts exactly, re: next year’s class. And I’m not sure why you take that sweet glove (best I’ve seen in quite a while) and move him over.
Kinda weird all around.
Marcus can prove he can play 2B, and try to market himself as a multi positional mvp candidate (if he rebounds). Or at least multi positional guy with an average bat. the big 5 are all pure SS. Some teams may like someone they know they can be flexible with
Still. Weird to jump back in next year. Makes me think his 2 year offers were way less annual money than his 1 years
Perhaps at this time the FO already feels like they were out on Beauer and chose this path?
I’m not a big believer in Semien, but I like that he is betting on himself to prove that 2019 was not a fluke, and especially to improve on his 2020 numbers.
Also, I suspect that Lindor and Seager will be extended. Maybe Correa, too. Baez and Story will probably hit free agency (unless Story gets traded and extended). Of course, that means that the teams that extend them won’t be in the market for a new SS, but the free agent class might not be as deep as it looks right now. And Semien is potentially expanding his market by taking a deal that may have him playing 2nd base all season.
The Jays will not be playing in Buffalo. It’s going to be Dunedin or Toronto.
If Semien’s 2021 is like his 2019, his decision to take a 1 year contract will pay off for him hugely. He’s just betting on himself.
Saying he won’t get paid because there are a lot of other good free agents next year is silly, because each of those free agents creates a need for a team who’s losing a star. Plus he’s spending this year proving that he can play two positions.
Plus if he bounces back the Jays QO him and get the prospect return.
He’s probably hoping that next year will bring real revenue and teams will be more willing to spend (or more teams will be willing to spend). There are definitely quite a few teams that are skeptical to hand out substantial contracts this off season.
His best offer this year was likely a 3/40 or something. IF ( and it’s a big if because every other season of his career he’s been largely the same batter) he hits close to 2019–he’ll top that easily. It doesn’t matter how many options are out there. They’ll be teams not playing in the big boy market that will want a 2nd tier SS. I’m not sold that Semien truly is that player though.
Bringing a SS In to play another position who had 1 outlier year in his career is reminiscent of Zack Cozart to me. But, at least it’s only a 1 year gamble instead of a 3 year throwaway.
AL East is going to be fun this year!
Yes, b/c the Jays signed Marcus Semien.
Or is it because their young core is one year more mature, combined with the signings of Semien, Springer, Ray, Chatwood, and Yates, will still some time left for trades or other signings.
If he plays like 2019 great signing. If he plays like 2014,15,16,17,18,20 it’s a massive overpay.
Nice. Hard to not like this when it’s one year. I wonder how the IF is going to play out. Realistically, any of Semien, Biggio, or Bichette could be slotted in at 3b.
Good signing. Just need another SP.
A steal at 18 million. Welcome Marcus to Toronto
Are you Coors Light? A take that’s as ice cold as the Rockies here…
*Buffalo
Not surprised that it is a one year deal. While I’m certainly think that he is a one year wonder and will never approach it again, it makes sense that somebody was willing to take a one year risk.
Semien, really? 18M. Yeeesh who is going to throw the ball over the plate?
Wouldn’t have signed Semien $18-mil for 2 years. Now the Jays are probably out on Bauer, and Bauer’s agent should ask for $45-mil and point to Semien’s overpay. Outside of one season he hasn’t been a good player.
This has no impact on their ability to sign other players – it’s a one-year deal and they still have plenty of money to spend.
When a glorified bench player takes $18-mil and a starting spot, it’s an impact. Look further, there were much better options to choose from without a long term deal. No Jays fan should be pleased by this crap.
I only have one thing to say to this…actually just two letters BS! You are so out to lunch
Bauer is overrated. A #3 pitcher with an attitude. Pass.
So you’ll be the 1st back here in 6 months to say you were wrong if Siem has a solid year, right?
Yep. I will absolutely own it. Just like I owned it when I said Shaw wasn’t a good signing. Oh wait, I was correct.
At $18-mil, a solid year is over .850 OPS and positive D. Sound good?
He changes his name every year so he does not have to own his foolish comments from the year before. .
Say what you want, but over the last 3 years, Bauer is a top 15 pitcher in most major stats. Era/FIP, their offshoot advanced stats
That sure sounds like an ace
Marko people caught you with another handle months ago. 30 Parks was correct above. You can’t make up your mind on how the Jays should go about their business. And you think Teoscar is not a bad defensive player, which makes your opinion null and void.
No one caught me with anything Wild Bill Tetley as this is the only name I’ve had since signing up. So along with everything else you are a cons[piracy nut I see- go figure it fits you too a T.
I never made the case that Teo was a good defensive player only that he was improving since 2017 and with his bat he should not be traded for for a rental like you wanted .
My mind opinion is the same now as it has been all along. Use the financial flexibility to fill holes on short term contracts with 1-2 key acquisitions per year on longer contracts. Hold onto Top 10 prospects with the idea of using 4-5 as the next “wave” and the others when we are competitive and looking for the final piece or 2. This years trade deadline would be optimal.
Unlike you and Parks I’d prefer a 1983-1993 run of contention rather then the 15-16 window.
Time and again WildBillTetley you prove wait little you bring to the conversation and now you are joined by your amigo Parks.
2 Peas in the pod as they say. Headcases.
Looks like I struck a nerve. Take you medication once a day or used as subscribed.
@guest
How do you really feel? Can’t be sure of your opinion since you haven’t posted it enough times.
stymeedone, after sleeping on it I am actually going to walk some of it back.
Is it the signing I would’ve done? No. Do I think Semien is as big a difference maker as some believe? No. But is it a horrible signing like I thought? Not really. This signing doesn’t hurt the Jays. Although not certain how much it helps short-term.
Glad to have you back on the “sane” side @guest
I guess. I reflect back on 2016-17 offseason and remembered how bad management’s vision was. Then I look forward a year or two from now and wonder if they can be trusted to bring the football across the goal line. With this decision I can only come up with one reason they did this; to give Bo 1 shot at holding down SS.
If he proves he can’t, Semien moves there for one. Then the Jays go after a SS in 10 months. Wong, who fits the Jays better than Semien in my opinion, would block Bo from moving to 2B. Semien on 1-yr does not. And they still need starting pitching.
Am I still insane for not liking the Semien move?
Not at all, we’re all entitled to our opinions about certain players and their potential
I just couldn’t wrap my head around being miffed at it only being 1 year , regardless of the price.
I enjoy your takes, if they agree with mine or not is inconsequential
You are right it boils down to each persons opinion and some of your takes I agree with completely . Actually I have wondered if Bauer would take 2/75 . Would give him the highest AAV and the 2nd year would mitigate the risk of injury or poor performance in year 1.
One less suitor for Bryant
Pinder time
Holy overpay
Not really, that was pretty much the same as his QO was going to be
Shocked at the 18MM, but a real good player.
I looked for other reports that Siemien before I believed it. Expected more fak news
I love it when teams go for it, and I’m glad he’s away from the AL West.
as a 3B I guess?
2nd.
$18m is brutal. He’s worth no more than $10-15 mil per year depending on contact length.
Take away 2019 and he’s a backup utility infielder. $10-mil is generous.
I guess, in the same way Andrelton Simmons is a backup utility infielder. Semien is a slightly below average bat, according to OPS+, with great defense. if he’s pushing Grichuk out of the everyday lineup you’re getting improved defence without giving up much if anything on offence. Won’t argue it’s not an overpay but I don’t think it has an impact on any of their other moves
Just when I think I couldnt see a dumber take, WAJGH comes in and ignores:
2016: 3.5 WAR
2017: 1.7 WAR in 85 games
2018: 4.7 WAR
“Backup utility infielder” is not what that is. Why do you think you can even analyze baseball when you know absolutely nothing?
Yes he is. But why have expectations or benchmarks when you have none, Marty? You also contradicted yourself with a comment below, so even you are confused. But I’ve shown you way too much logic while you play with nerd stats that does not properly reflect how good he is. There are also better options but I won’t bore you with smart analysis you’ll never achieve.
WAJGH really is lost with his takes. They are just so misinformed. It would be nice if some of these nay sayers would educate themselves before posting. Ugh
You simply went too far down the rabbit hole. I agree that this is a bad deal. Reminiscent of Zack Cozart—where you sign a guy who historically gets a chunk of his value from his SS defense to play another position. Both had 1 outlier year that was nothing like the rest of their respective careers as well.
But why did this need to become Semien is a glorified bench player and a WAR bashing exercise? That’s where you became ridiculous. Semien is a starting caliber SS. Not an 18 million dollar per year one, in my opinion. The advanced stats would back that up from last year too. Maybe he’s 2019 semien and I’m wrong. Because that wasn’t a luck driven season his batted ball profile confirms that. He has just has never demonstrated he was that guy previously or in the COVID cut season after. So I’ll remain highly skeptical on that.
Hey Marty, did you get enough to eat today? Marty McRib! So much for your “no one will sign with Toronto” take huh? But we all know you’ll just hide from that!
He’s banking on proving his season was a covid hiccup not a downturn. Probably will try to play 2B+3B during the year at different points.
He likely walked away from at least 5M guaranteed, on a longer deal. I’d imagine he at least was offered 2/23 or so elsewhere
JBigz you are correct. As a Jays fan I wasn’t happy with the move. Add to the fact that so many Jays fans are very happy with the signing it certainly pushed me toward the rabbit hole. I will own this one and wear it.
I look at an $18-mil player as someone who can make a big impact. I don’t see that with Semien. I see him not as the best option for the short term and more of a scenario where the Jays overpaid for settling. He breaks out like he did in 2019 and I’m really off the mark!
Overall, although I would have liked to have seen things play out different, this does not harm the Jays. What is hurting Toronto is the fact that they need some serious mound help.
Well this was unexpected. With the crowded outfield already I wonder what happens to Biggio? Unless they plan on him becoming the everyday third baseman? Every move the Jays make makes me think they have a pretty substantial trade in mind.
I was thinking the same thing. Biggio hasn’t played much 3B and Vlad has struggled there. Would seem to make Biggio either a super utility player or trade bait.
If they sign Semien to trade Biggio? Fire the gm immediately.
Biggio isn’t going anywhere.
If they’re going to try to acquire a package like Bryant and Hendricks, it’ll take some serious talent to pull a deal like that off. Biggio headlining a package could be appealing, and I would rather trade him than Groshans who could step in to replace Bryant the following year.
I didn’t see this coming. I like it a lot though. I don’t care about the hefty price tag with it just being a one-year deal. Still would like to see some more pitching but this offseason went from a total dud to really nice in the last week or so.
Off season was great right up until they hit that landmine in Springer ms 6 year deal. The rest of the offseason has been great so far.
I’d rather have Freddy Galvis for 1.5 million and use the other 16.5 million to buy 8 ferrari enzos, each in a different color.
Can they pitch?
I would rather have Galvis over Semien too, spend the money on starting pitching.
I literally had somebody on here call me crazy a couple months ago for saying that Semien was going to get 1 year 18 million dollar deal!
You’re still crazy, but good call.
Oh I am super crazy :D just ask my ex-wife. I do however know that people get payed quite a bit more then they’re worth if they accept a one year deal.
@DTDAtlanta I expect you’re typed apology for your December 6th error.
lmao imagine bringing receipts for an anonymous comments section, no one cares but you my guy lol
I don’t care I was clearly joking. I was just hoping he would see it so I could mess with him lol. I think you are the only one who didn’t know I was joking. That should come as no surprise because you’re consistently one of the most bitter people on this website. Have a good night Marty! Don’t let the bed bugs bite. :)
Marty is just angry because his local Arby’s didn’t have enough roast beef on hand to complete his order!
LolMutz – rb curtains at ur house
What’s the point in commenting if you can’t owe your own stupid takes that turned out soooo wrong?
You were crazy; the Jays are just crazier.
You also literally told us all that you whizz in your pants every night as a thirty year-old- no one cared about that either. So there’s that.
Overpay but it’s for one year.
I take it they are betting on getting 2019 Semien.
I think its more like Semien is betting on himself being the 2019 version at a less demanding inf position,
Smart if it works out, win win
Sad to see him leave home, but happy for him to get an opportunity to make good with a team on the rise. Good move by Toronto.
Biggio is likely to playing 3rd I guess, barring a few OF moves like Gurriel or a combo of Grichuk and Hernandez
Good move by the Jays, his bat plays at 2nd and isn’t the hardest position to field especially shifting from SS
Even if he flops, you still have Biggio to plug in and at worst Austin Martin gets called up early to fill an OF spot if you trade the OF surplus
Another right handed bat?
Sure, why not
They could run up some very crooked numbers against lefty starters.
18m seems like a lot for a guy with only one season with an OPS+ over 100 and his questionable defensive tools. Hard to rag on it too much if they think he can capably fill a role in the IF mix as long as it doesn’t impede any other upgrade efforts though, considering it’s only a one year deal and isn’t my money.
After this signing, don’t be surprised if. Biggio, Randall Grichuk, and prospects go to the Cubs for Kyle Hendricks and Kris Bryant.
I really like biggio so that would atleast give me a reason to watch the cubs when they play the Braves
I would be surprised, you dont break up your core yet especially when:
A Hes still young (Athough the oldest of the core)
B He’s probably the highest on base guy on the team
C Hes a LF bat which the team is already lacking
D Hes Versatile defensively in the OF or INF
E Hes still pre arb , and that’s required to keep payroll in control for the next 2-3 years
F He has an amazing stolen base to caught stealing ratio despite not being very fast (another area the Jays lack)
We have everything Bryant now brings to the table, Giving up anything of Value for him would be a mistake right now, maybe at the trade deadline if in contention and it fits due to poor play or injuries
You’re right, I won’t.
I’d be shocked.
Not a chance the Blue Jays do that. You don’t have to squint very hard to make the case that Biggio alone is worth Hendricks and Bryant.
Bryant doesn’t add a ton of value but he does add something. I think Hendricks for Biggio straight up is close to right. Think it’d take a little bit more. Hendricks is highly underrated because he isn’t the prototypical TOR starter. But I’d take him as a #2 for me any day of the week. The OP’s proposal was reasonable. Grichuk has negative value on that a contract. Fortunately for Toronto they actually front loaded his deal a little bit and we’re going to pay him 12MM last year. Which obviously got cut bc of COVID.
Talking strictly value wise. Not advocating that the Jays actually trade Biggio for that package.
Don’t be surprised if biggo is the only left handed hitter on the team so he will likely be the last guy they look to trade.
Good for Semien. I’m just hoping he doesn’t revert to MVP form again
He put up a 130 WRC+ after the first 14 games last season.
What about those first fourteen games? They don’t count? So he did great for forty-six games. Hall of famer fo sho!
Right? In an already shortened season, you want to also ignore 25% of that? If you cherry pick time frames to that degree you can make anyone look good.
“He was pretty good if you ignore the times he was bad”
The point is, you negative nellies on this deal look at a small sample size of 14 games. In a normal season a bad start in the first 14 games would be of much less impact on the season results as it would in a full 162 games.
blogs.fangraphs.com/marcus-semien-potential-bargai…
Have a read it may enlighten you.
He had a strained oblique at the beginning of the year. That type of injury can really screw with your swing. Once he healed up from that he was a different player.
Biggio seems the one left out in the cold. I don’t see him being productive at all this season
Is it really $14, 178,330 i always wonder do they pay in USA dollars or Canada dollars
They are paid is USD
Everything mlb associated is done in usd. They only do transactions in one currency
I don’t know, it just might be me, but I’m not all that crazy for this player. That said, Who cares about the money on a 1 year deal, with the jays current situation.
He’s had 1 season out of 8 with an OPS+ over 100. I don’t know if I would call it a huge bat added to the lineup.
This is preferable to paying Justin Turner something like 3/45.
Twins are stupid, fire Levine, twins can’t get anyone. Worst GM
literally got Donaldson like a year ago lol
Terrible deal… bad guy no team chem and average player… can’t make any other dead
Yeah and how many games did he play for that what 23 Mil you paid him Marty?
Hey Marty McLovin it- don’t jump in the sky and get stuck! Remember like 5 signings ago when you declared no one would sign with Toronto? We all remember! Genius!
@lolmetsforever The Blue Jays haven’t signed one player beside Yates that will actually help them win ball games. At least Semien is on a one year deal whereas Springer is there for the long haul with his horrendous contract. Toronto is spending to spend and to keep the fans quiet. They’ll win absolutely nothing this season.
Agreed that the Jays won’t win anything unless they sign/trade for two front of the rotation type starters. The Jays can’t start.
Yeah, those Twins have really gone downhill the last few years.
Oh, wait.
Semien is not special. Plenty of better options at at a better cost.
Biggio > Semien, Jays continue making moron moves that wont even get them to 3rd place, lol you love to see it.
He’s a season removed from an 8 WAR season and it’s a one year deal. Even if he puts up league average offensive numbers he’ll be worth 3-4 WAR.
Refresh my memory, but isn’t a average MLB player a ” zero” war player?
In 2018 he had a 95 OPS+ (slightly below league average) but was still worth 4.7 WAR. He provides a lot of defensive value.
Ah yes, war, the made-up stat that everyone loves to quote. It is so meaningless that every stat service has a different equation.
Actual wins, that is what I want from my players. Wins.
2 WAR is about league average. Zero means you’re replacement level.
“ It is so meaningless that every stat service has a different equation.”
Or there’s many facets to a game and many stats to use to determine value. Most variance is what defensive metric they prefer. One variable changed=new formula. Math
Redwine I’m with you. I’m so tired of these meaningless stats made up by desk jockeys who have never played the game. What players are gonna help my team score runs and what pitchers will keep runs off the board, that’s what I want. WAR is the dumbest stat ever and fans that point to it as a useful number are clearly not too bright. Give me guys that produce runs one way or another that’s what I want.
No, a 0 War player is a replacement player that you call up from the minor leagues.
If Semien was pushing Biggio to the bench, you would certainly have a point. Since he’s only pushing him over to 3rd, you don’t have even the barest hint of one.
Somebody get Marty a couple of burgers! You were great in that movie Precious Marty! Hey the guy knows food, not baseball! Marty’s rap name is Not So Slim Shady!
@lolmetsforever
Seriously, of the hundreds of people reading this, there are probably a handful or less that find your comments funny in any way.
All you’re really doing is embarrassing yourself. Don’t hide behind your computer screen and insult people. Grow a pair record some YT videos of your opinions and let the world see you
We know you won’t because all trolls hide from the general public. But enough is enough my man.
Men don’t say things about someone they wouldn’t say directly to that person’s face. Be a man , our society depends on it
Marty and Mets are like watching two blind guys in a prizefight.
I really don’t think Biggio is going to be moving around the diamond that much. There really isn’t that many places for him to play at the moment. He’s going to play 3rd & maybe some 1st with the way the roster is currently constructed. That could change if the Jays move Grichuk, then they’ll have a little more flexibility. RIght now, they have Biggio, Guerrero, Grichuk, Hernandez & Tellez for four spots. Something has to give there
So none of these guys will have an injury and all will play 162 games? No one will be given a day off?
What they now have is high calibre depth for both the IN and OF .
Exactly biggo will probably get the most at bats on the team lol.
18 million is a lot of money but all of the off-season moves, including George, keeps them flexible in the future. Even considering eventual arbitration costs. We’ll have to see what plays out but it seems to me the plan (and constant talk) of being perennial contenders is coming to fruition.
I can’t stop laughing at tips comment. I swear I can hear my dad saying these exact words.
Big bat? Dude has had exactly one season his entire career above a 100 wRc+. He’s anything but a big bat.
hes clutch as hell, and ranked 3rd in MVP votes last year
obviously you dont watch As games
He’s had one really good year! That was his third place finish!
He is so clutch that the A’s…what, have won a couple wild card games?
In the same wild card round, those wild card game wins got them to an ALDS. He came to play in that ALDS. Seems like a winner. Worked hard to improve his SS defense as well as his plate approach. Solid presence to have.
Overpaid, but with Bo yet to play a full 162, it feels nice to have improved the backup SS option if necessary.
Simmons signs for $10m shortly after with major health questions. Galvis for peanuts may prove a better signing, but Semien has much higher upside.
Preferred a true 2B like Wong or Lemahieu, and really preferred Kim most of all, but getting an option that can cover SS has some value for this current roster. Remember all the injuries last year? And every year really.
dem boys aint playn roun!
Biggio to LF.
Gurriel and Hernandez to Cleveland for Ramirez and Plesac.
Indians take a Hard pass. Maybe for just for JRam but Plesac is good and lots of control left. The Indians would want Groshans and another good pitcher.
If Gurriel Hernandez and Groshans get Jram and Plesac, I think the Jays have to do that deal. Biggio works in LF, we get a possible TOR pitcher and an mvp candidate at 3rd on an already stacked team
Do that deal 10/10 times even if losing Gurriel and Groshans hurts
As a jays fan its Probably something like Grichuk, Groshans kirk/jansen/Moreno and Thornton/Kay just for J-RAM. He is on a great deal and is amazing. Clearly CLE wants now type pices from the Lindor deal
Come on, man. The Indians are going to give up the two best players they have for those two? I never tire of reading these trade ideas, regardless of the poster’s name you can always tell who they are a fan of.
The Indians would laugh so hard at this they may not even be able to hang up the phone.
I am a Jays fan, but if I was the GM and CLV called me up asking for a 1 for 1 Gurriel for Jram deal…… I say no.
Especially for CLV I feel Guerriel has more value to them than Jram based on age and contract
Yes I know Jram has a team friendly deal , but Gurriel’s is better. Yes I know Jram has a better track record, but Guerriel has massive potential. Yes I know CLV doesn’t have a replacement for Jram, but is CLV actually trying to win now? I argue they are just hoping for a few playoff games to get revenue and WS isnt even in the discussion
Based on those factors I feel CLV would happily trade Jram for Guerriel straight up. But if the Jays are smart they wont.
Expanding it to include Plesac would then require Hernandez/Grichuk or Kirk/Jansen plus a top 100 player coming back
Then I feel you could pull the trigger as you’re getting at worst equal perceived value swaps while busting up the logjam at certain positions and filling the holes for both teams.
Jays get better at 3B, Vlad can DH Tellez gets playing time at first further improving D, Biggio can handle LF and Grichuk or Hernandez whoever’s left is your RF
CLV gets a young stud on a better contract who plays a position of need in the OF and probably one of our young promising INF prospects to replace Jram who will be cheap for 5-6 years, have plenty of young SP depth to trade from and maybe a young C or Vet OF to further round out a playoff team (being in the central and all)
You can look at them as separate trades combined into 1
All those people whining about overpaying knock it off. You are either a jealous fan of an AL competitor (likely NY) or your the guy who complains about the Jays not doing enough and then whine when they actually do something. Free agents get overpaid. It’s what happens. – every year. Would you rather give up Groshans or Martin or Woods Richardson, or Moreno, or Monoah, or Kloffenstein, etc?
IF YOU ARE A JAYS FAN WHY ARE YOU COMPLAINING WHEN ITS NOT OUR MONEY AND WE STILL HAVE ALL OF THESE VERY HIGHLY REGARDED MINOR LEAGUERS?
Just ignore those whining….they are likely Yankee fans or fans of another team they wished signed Semien. I am over the moon. Jays are going to be an incredibly fun and good team to cheer for this year and for many years to come.
I think its been well established that the Blue Jays don’t have the smartest fan base. Well, on this website at least. Their is no in between when it comes to crying about not signing anybody or signing the wrong people. Just terrible arm chair gming.
I understand standing by your team and getting tired of people pretending to play GM, but I also don’t think any of the criticism on this one is based on envy of missing out.. But hey, as long as this doesn’t tie their hands otherwise, you’re probably right not to care much about it.
First, it is the fans money. Without the fans they have no money.
Second, better options still available.
Third, an overbid for a guy who’s not all that good.
Forth, Jays at this time are still 3rd at-best. Yankee fans are laughing and they have every right to do so.
5th- Isnt that what this website is all about?
Its not whiny to have a contradicting opinion
I find the fanboys 10x more annoying just spouting off everything their team does as brilliant without question
**Lastly – Its never “Just” money- Its opportunity cost, and while its hard to get “TOO” mad at 1 yr deals there is absolutely downside in 1 yr deals and that comes back to our word of the day opportunity cost!
We will never (really ) know what the OppCost is w Siemen …it could have been Bauer Justin Turner a re-vamped Bullpen, Odorizzi etc etc etc. This board has really gotten carried away with the bumper sticker slogan of never a bad 1 yr contract
Agreed Cap. And Simmons signed for $10.5-mil. Injuries aside, is Semien really $7.5-mil better than Andrelton? The best defensive SS of recent memory?
How can you put injuries aside when talking about Simmons in 2021?
Being a finalist on Lemahieu while still ‘courting’ Bauer/Turner/bullpen/Odorizzi/everyone and their grandmother suggests that there was no opportunity missed by spending this amount on another infielder.
We can feel safe to expect they will continue to court pitchers now that they seem to have a full outfield and infield.
If anything cost Bauer, it’s already losing a pick plus half mil in international pool money for signing Springer. Losing another pick and another half mill isn’t something that I expect to see.
Paxton, Odorizzi, Tanaka level arm more believable to me.
(Trade way more appealing. Now ideal, midseason fine.)
Semien getting $5m more than predicted isn’t stopping any of those moves.
Team isn’t pushing luxury tax limits or tied up with long term commitments, so the chances that this contract prevents any future opportunities are slim to none.
Hey, I’m a Yankee fan who hasn’t commented negatively about this acquisition or the countless others Jays fans fantasied about this season but never got until now with your gutless clown statement about Yankee fans whining…..KMA Melandoof j_ckoff!
Will really relish kicking the Jays ass this season especially because of jerks like you!
Good move, but where is the starting pitching?
I hate this signing as a Jays fan. I can think of $18 million other ways to upgrade the rotation.
I would have much preferred Simmons as a defensive infield replacement over Mr. Semen.
So be it, it’s only one year but I’m not convinced this was the most appropriate use of resources.
With 66.9 Mil still available before the Luxury Tax, there is plenty of money to upgrade the rotation!
They are going nowhere near the luxury tax threshold— don’t kid yourself.
Kolten Wong could have been had for 2 years for a similar total dollar value while proving elite defence and speed along with a sorely needed left handed bat.
Again, this is not a good signing regardless of how much perceived budget the Jays have remaining.
They could have signed Brad Hand for 2 years instead of 1 year of Semen stains.
100% agreed Jal. You see the bigger picture here.
I know what you mean but There’s the possibility that they pursued Wong and he chose to seek a contract elsewhere. They don’t just pick players and the player has no say in the matter.
You guys both assume free agency happens in a vacuum. Who is to say Simmons refused to play 2b instead of ss or Wong refused to play in toronto? Fact is, it’s rarely all about the $$ — especially if money is close and players have a family they need to consider. Jays already finished 2nd for 1 player who chose his family’s desire to live in Cali over where he preferred to go. You work with the options you have.
The domino effect is amazing to me. Because Kim chose the Padres the jays got Semien, Similar to when they struck out on Yelich they traded for Grichuk.
Refreshingly awesome take Jal
I dont think most people understand opportunity cost in here
Thanks— the fundamental goal is to make every dollar work as hard and as smart as you can. Squeeze every ounce a value out within reason. This might even mean coming under budget allowing payroll flexibility for potential trade deadline deals.
After the Simmonds signing was announced, 1 year for 10.5 million I immediately said this confirms the Jays getting fleeced.
Will Kolten sign elsewhere? Yes potentially but I would have waited instead of overpaying for Semen stains.
18 million is a ton of cash to upgrade your pen.
If Semen returns to MVP form than I’ll be gladly be proved wrong but I think most of us logical ball fans think Semen and is closer to 2020 form than 2019…
The Jays were never going to move Bo off SS for any of the remaining guys . The Jays may have over payed slightly but..
1- One year contract does not block Groshans or Martin
2- Maybe slimmed down and with part time reps at 3B Vlad improves there .
3- Semiens has the highest ceiling of any of the FA available.
4-If he does bounce back QO him and worse case get the prospect.
5-The Jays now have High quality depth to cover OF and IF. (Injuries do happen)
A couple of notes on the other options
Wong- Likely wants 2 yrs and has a much lower ceiling.
Simmonds- Wouldn’t trust his ankle on artificial surface ( once they get back to Dome )
Didi- Looking for more then 1 year.
There is much more upside to this deal then downside.
Some real nice options for 2022 offseason makes the 1 year option a bit more tempting than the guys wanting multiyear deals. Turner/Wong/Didi/Simmons may have been better fits that provide more in 2021 but keeping things flexible for 2022 beyond has some value as well.
So many factors.
Solid discussion friendos.
Ida loved Kolten Wong + Rp cash as well
Simmons wasn’t willing to play musical chairs like siemien will be
Pitching coming soon.
Go Jays Go!!
Yea my guess is trade for pitching because it also frees up 40 man space. Ive been saying all offseason a catcher should be attached to Grichuk to get him off the books. Either one or both makes a ton of sense, with Tanaka basically gone to NPB Paxton or Odorizzi are the only pitchers that make sense in my mind, maybe sign Paxton to a 8-10 mil deal plus incentives and trade for a starter aswell
Not many clubs can boast a Zobrist type player.
I believe Biggio has that type of value. Can play 2nd, corner OF spots, and handle 3B.
A left handed bat with low strikeout/high on-base skills.
Jays need this productive left handed bat that can spell guys at 4 positions. He will get playing time & produce.
The Jays depth to trade from is at catching and the OF.
Currently Jays carry 5 catchers, and 7 OF on their 40 man.
I feel like the odd man out is Tellez. Sad after he has finally started to have decent number at the plate.
Possible line up if tomorrow were opening day.
Biggio (3B)
Bichette
Springer
Teo (DH)
Vlad
Lourdes
Semien
Grichuk (RF)
Jansen
There would be shuffling Grich between RF & DH
Teo DH & RF
Vlad 1B & DH with very few games at 3B
Rowdy bench, 1B and DH
Biggio 3B, 2B corner OF
With all that said… I feel one of the corner OF, or Tellez along with catching prospects possibly some pitching prospects could be on the move.
Has this guy Bichette even played anywhere else for he Jays other than SS and DH?
If that’s true, how can you assume he can play 2nd, both corner outfield positions and “handle” 3rd base? And spell guys at 4 positions?
Seems to be that after a whole 75 games, Jays fans are putting him in the HOF already…seemingly a pretty good hitter with speed, but wow…TC Zenka and Jays fans have this kid as a “STAR” headed for GOAT already.
And y”all talk about Yankee fans with their over-valuing!
Bichette? He’s right about Biggio he can play multiple positions and I know that and im not a Jays fan lol
Bo played 2B in the minors.
Great….when did he play 3rd or the corner outfield?
Oh rocky, try again.
My bad….wrong guy….auto correct did me in again….strike my comments about Biggio!
Yeh, got my B’s mixed up…my bad!
Rowdy being a rare lefty bat on this roster may end up being an important piece to have around.
Look what being lefty has done for lengthening Fisher’s Blue Jay career!
For real, check Shapiro’s Cleveland history, guy loves lefties.
Should look into a trade for Vogelbach?
While the cost is a little high anyone really complaining needs to give there head a shake. If the day last season ended you were told the hays would add Springer, Yates and Semien you would have been over the moon. Even if he cant come close to his big season its no biggie cuz hes gone & if he plays well its likly he resigns on a 1 yr deal again then go into the market next year with all the SS. The jays are 1 starter away from being real serious players this year and 2 away from being a real WS contender im so excited to see this coming season and what moves are next, i have a feeling its a trade
Not over the moon. Pitching not fully addressed.
I don’t blame them for not spending ridiculous money on Bauer, and after him the pitching market was really underwhelming. I think they upgraded where it gave them the most bang for their buck. Lots of arms in the system that could step up this year and lots of promising pitching prospects on the way.
Good signing but hey Atlanta and Minnesota were a close 22nd and 23rd in offering a deal.
Hi TC,
After the word “deal”, can you add “pending a physical”.?
“The Jays have reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal”.
$18 million? That is a lol overpay. Come see me next October (but allow time for a response, I will be watching my Rays hopefully battle to the alcs). If he is an upgrade on defense, ouch.
He has had one really good year. And he parleys it into eighteen mill? What, does no one want to come to Toronto so they have to overpay?
Yes 18 million is a bit of an overplay but the key is only the 1 year which is far more important. With Groshans and Austin Martin coming along shortly this singing allows for major payroll and positional flexibility.
Gotta think an OF is going to be on the block now.