Decision time nears for Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. He needs to finalize a contract with an MLB team by Friday at 4:00 pm Central if he's to make the move stateside this year. There's no indication that he's considering sticking with the Seibu Lions, meaning an agreement should be imminent. While there's a little over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.
The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.
Whichever team that signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending. Imai isn't expected to come close to the $325MM deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto commanded two offseasons ago. He's a few years older and simply not as good. Yet it's generally believed that he'll command a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps into the $150MM range, from a team that feels he's a mid-rotation arm.
Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary projections are courtesy of RosterResource.
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Cubs
Agreeable.
I’ll be shocked if Ricketts actually ponies up what it’ll take to sign him. He’s been a Wallmart shopper for years now.
The New York Yankees of course…
Tough for the Yankees to sign a long term deal at top dollar for a guy who looks, at best, to be their 4th or 5th starter when Cole and Rodon return. They’ve got $100 million invested in 2026 starters already and Cole, Fried, Rodon and Gil are all locked up through at least 2028. Seems more likely they sign a shorter term deal with Bassitt Verlander or Littell, or even Giolito or Gallen if their prices drop. ,
Fallen is interesting. If the Mets can’t sign Imai, I hope they take a flyer on Gallen.
Mets, Yankees, Giants
1) l ’ll take a shot and say Mets. They’re in dire need of a starter 1 through 5 .any slot and all slots are open I’m thinking. 2) Yankees better do something soon for i see angry smoke signals over the rise. 3) Rsox could seriously use him as well. Better price fit for all the above.
The Red Sox need a bat more than a pitcher but if they fail to do that a pitcher would make sense. I doubt the bats they’re interested sign before Imai so I don’t see it happening.
The r Sox were my long-shot pick other two were favorites.
Mets have McLean, Senga, Manaea, Holmes, Scott, Sproat, Tong, Megill, Peterson and Hagenman under contract for next year.
@Mats
And you said that with your chest I bet? That’s like saying you kissed Tanya, Suzy, Stacy and Kris, and they’re all your cousin with Kris being a dude. Mets don’t have much in terms of legit FOR pitching.
@Knicks
Putting aside your repressed feelings towards guys and cousins: NO, it’s not like that at all.
Nothing in baseball is anything like that.
And? Lol, that’s not good
Many of them are question marks though. They used FORTY SIX pitchers last season.
You’re saying they shouldn’t have 10 starters in 2026 because they used 46 pitchers in 2025?
Without doing more, Yankee Stadium will be empty in October. Having said that, of course they will do more but will it be the right move or moves?
Mr Newman,Not filled. Yes sold seats they’ve pretty much done that through stubhub ,ticket master etc etc.. during regular season games Kay or whoever’s announcing will tell you it’s practically sold out and they’re correct. However there are plenty of seats empty, hence not filled. Playoffs are a different animal. That said, this off season has been disappointing thus far. If they sign Bellinger that still doesn’t improve their team from last seasons. The bullpen needs serious help and another starter plus a righty impact bat and I’ll be more settled. I go to three regular season games and one playoff game ALDS or ALCS depending on the teams. Last playoff I missed going to either of those series instead opted for the playoff WC vs the R Sox. Hopefully they won’t disappoint and I’ll get to Bronx in 26. Ps. Loved your magazine.
Alfred: I totally agree, but truly they need to do something if they want to have a legit Championship run. I’m confused by their unaggressive approach these days. Attendance isn’t the issue for sure, but BE THE YANKEES again.
I have Mets in the contest but hope SD can work out an option oriented contract.
Dodgers, who else
You do realize the Dodgers have two complete rotations worth of starting pitchers at the moment, right?
They are stocking up in anticipation of yet another syphilitic outbreak
Candle,
The Dodgers can afford antibiotics. And proper medical care. And protection.
They can send some north if your team needs them. Meds and protection, not pitchers. 🙂
Another, nah we good!
You simply can’t take these types of people seriously. They think that the Dodgers scoop up every single Asian import, completely ignoring the facts that say otherwise.
It’s a good thing all of those arms are always healthy.
@21
Imai went out of his way to day 3 things: He doesn’t want to join the Dodgers. He wants to beat the Dodgers. He doesn’t want to join a team that currently has a Japanese player.
Sounds like he wants to be a Brewer with that criteria.
1. Not the Dodgers
2. Brewers had a 6-0 record against the Dodgers last season.
3. No Japanese players
@Another
another one..
-Khalid
yeah 6-0, but got swept in the NLCS.
KnicksFanCavsFan another one is DJ Khaled not Khalid…2 different people.
The Dodgers basically own Japan lol so yea lol
If Imai-san really wants to beat the Dodgers, his options are limited to the Braves in the NL or the Mariners, Blue Jays and the Red Sox in the AL.
IMO, those are the only teams that offer am opportunity to win now and in the next few years.
lol
@So
You don’t think the Yanks who were tied with the Jays for most wins won’t be in the mix this year with Cole, Freid, Rondon, Gil, Warren and Schlittler in the mix to join Imai?
@KnicksFan I was thinking of including the Yankees and the Cubs. But I just don’t know what their respective FO are thinking. If the Yankees end up signing Tucker or even Bellinger, then things are different. But there’s at least some indication that they aren’t willing to spend this off season.
Cubs are Dodger killers.
Probably the most uneducated comment ever.
My Heart wants the Mariners, but it’s likely the Cubs or Yankees. Maybe Blue Jays
Unfortunately no Yankees. Thinking White Sox, Phillies, Mutts, or Giants.
Yanks will announce they’ve signed Nelli, Imai and Okamato all at the same damn time.
Please Cubs don’t fumble this one.
The Cubs are in no danger of a “fumble” to any division rival. A potentially worse “fumble” would be losing Tatsuya Imai to their city rival White Sox.
Unlike MLBTR and others, I consider the White Sox to be a serious contender for Imai and not a “long shot” as his posting window closes within the next 48 hours. The Southsiders are already seeing a light at the end of their rebuilding tunnel, especially in a less competitive AL Central. I suspect they will become a legitimate contender for a division crown as soon as 2027. Imai would fit nicely into that timeline and beyond.
This could also be the first intracity shot fired by future White Sox owner Justin Ishbia if he holds the necessary sway as their minority partner. Ishbia has already begun infusing cash into the organization. How much of that is earmarked for payroll is the bigger question mark. The recent signing of fellow Nippon star Munetaka Murakami gives me and other White Sox fans reason for additional optimism.
All that said, I’m also a huge Cubs fan and would be thrilled to see Imai sign on either side of town. I has also picked Imai for the Cubs in the MLBTR FA contest.
WSox telegraphing 3yrs is just a baseline Boras will use for the deep pockets win right away intentioned clubs. They should quietly make it 5yrs last second….even if 1 or 2 final years are tied to IP. Throw in some incentives for top 5 CYA. Long shots happen, but too much demand for starters in a rather weak market.
Would be astonished if at minimum Cubs aren’t offering 4 or 5 years at higher $. No doubt someone else lying in the weeds with big offer close to the vest.
There’s little doubt that Scott Boras is using the White Sox as leverage. But the clock is ticking and a physical also needs to be completed by the winning bidder before 4pm CT this Friday.
Boras reportedly told Imai to narrow his list of suitors down to 3 or 4 at the beginning of the week. That limits his options. No one is certain who those teams are. Yahoo Japan suggests the White Sox may be a finalist. If that’s the case then they have a puncher’s chance of signing another Nippon star.
Starting your comment off with the white sox immediately self muted the balance of your comment.
Giants: “…and they’ve repeatedly downplayed their desire to make long-term investments in the rotation”.
And as a Giants fan, I’ve taken them entirely at their word on this.
I am hoping they’ll surprise me. strong emphasis on hope and I am intentionally not using expect
You mean like in June or the December before? I’d say it’s starting to become something to expect from this Posey run front office.
Giants, Greg Johnson: We are willing to spend over the luxury tax again this season. Also Giants: Have had a meeting with Framber Valdez and were in on Shwarber.
It will not be the Yankees, trust me. Amed Rosario is our big offseason acquisition!
– Hal Steinbrenner
Yes we are a finished product, indeed! -Uncle Hal
blah blah blah.
Could be Imai. If so, no Bellinger. Or vice versa.
I would not take any Heyman news as anything more than Boras planting information to create interest in thinking there is competition.
He has been cut off largely from communications unless Boras spills the beans on negotiations.
The A’s are gonna shock with this signing.
That would be huge for them
If the A’s sign Quintana and Giolito to 1-2 year deals it would be huge. Let alone Imai, Ranger, Framber or Gallen.
When Imai came out and said he wanted to beat the dodgers, that pretty much counted them out.
Boras probably called them first. Nobody stepped up with 6 years and 150 million.So he started looking elsewhere.
It doesn’t really matter where he signs.It’s the money that matters. I’m guessing a five year deal with $18M a year with opt outs after two years.
If that is the case Atl better be signing him lol
Seems like he’s just begging to be a Giant and call Oracle Park home.
I am wondering if we see something more like a 3 year with a 20mm AAV and player options and a buyout – or something like 16mm AAV with incentives that can get him over 20
Imai, Galen, or Bassitt seems like a possibility. Or a trade w/ PIT for Mitch Keller. Murphy’s year may have screwed up that possibility, though.
Upon reflection I think Imai goes to the Astros.
I replied to the wrong post. I meant to reply to the Braves fan post about them signing him.
I strongly believe the padres have something up his sleeve. You can NEVER count AJ from doing something CRAZY so if it’s worth it we will get both of these players
The padres are not an individual.
You mean Johnny Podres?
Have something up imai sleeve?
It will be a team that needs pitching and has some cash. Done
The team that pays him the most.
Giants.
Seibu Lions at this point.
Every team could use a starter.
@von – I am always skeptical of short and skinny RH starting pitchers, as are the Phils for the most part. But I have a sneaking suspicion that they just might pull this one off. A – he might be the exception, and B – they really, really want to bring in a notable NPB player to get the pipeline cracked open. Middleton has seemingly authorized the budget for him as an outlier.
This feels very possible. At the least, I think they are seriously in the mix, and Philly seems like a place he would want to be to take on the Dodgers.
I wonder if that would take them out of the JT signing, which I would be okay with if they could make a trade for Pagés.
@Carver- The skinny Imai? No worries he’ll definitely get heavier over here no worries, like Hideki Irabu. (God rest his soul)
Lol bolderdash
Oh, well….
And all but one have payroll limitations
Brew, you KNOW that the Padres have no chance of signing Imai, right? What with their payroll crisis? Particularly so, because AJ Preller is such a dull GM, never works with options or incentive contracts, and so forth. And, Niebla’s track record with young pitchers is so bad, he chases ’em away before AJ can sign ’em. No young pitcher in his right mind would want to sign with a team that has such a poor starting rotation, that they are considering moving relievers into the rotation. I mean, who’d want that kind of pressure (or the opportunity to start)?
Right? 🤣🤣🤣
(Oh, I almost forgot to add: /end sarcasm)
Scott Harris asks Chris Illitch (aka Silver Spoon) about signing Bregman. When Spoon is told how much it would take, he says OH MY!
Harris runs with this, signs Imai, and Spoons is unable to refute his assumptive permission.
GO TIGERS!
Given it will not be the Dodgers, the SF Giants are not shy of doing big contracts and the Giants bullpen could possibly add another Japanese pitcher, besides Imai. If the Giants want to stabilize their rotation, Imai seems to be a good fit. The Giants could sign Okamoto as well, maybe leave Eldridge in AAA for a year.
I think he is the (1) the Phillies will extend themselves for if they can get creative with the contract. Not something they usually do but if its a lower expense this year the remaining years are wide open with all the money coming off the books in 27′.
Would love to see my Halos step up and get Imai
And if there is one thing that they do well is beat the Dodgers.
Despite Anthony saying, “Unlikely”, the Tigers should at least feign some interest….
Anderson, Flaherty, Olson, Maize, Maden all have concerns.
Nothing wrong with having trade chips. They hardly ever all work out.
It really depends on how good of a salesperson and sweet talker Harris is. Can he talk his way into a good deal?
Hire the Superfife!
Of.couse, he.might.be.going with the idea.Imai is too small. Harris has been signing.big, athletic guys so far.
Olsen is 150lbs.
Take the chance!
Imai must be on the Epstein list or something. Someone’s got the goods on old Imai!
They’ve been far too quiet. Something BIG is up . . . My prediction is that the Yankees will swoop in and get Imai!
Kansas City Monarchs
Angels, they already cleared money with a Boras client. They didn’t do it for no reason
Hopefully not just for arenado
So you’re saying the Rockies have a chance?!
if we’re going to judge based off his earlier comments whether it be lone japanese star, or team that can beat LAD
Phillly, NYY, Atlanta, Seattle would be great fits as he wouldn’t need to be an ace
LAA, Cubs, NYM if he made exceptions
both NYY & Seattle could use their pitching chips for other team needs
he fits well on a team that wont expect him to be the ACE, but if he can live up to one it would be a steal, putting aside whatever boras is trying to make teams pay
I think the Giants fit the description perfectly, especially as the dodgers biggest rival, and last team other than them to win the NL West in this decade.
Cubs
Vegas sounds about right.
Tried to google it but came up empty, has any team made a big move on New Years Day??? OH and on a side note: HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ONE AND ALL
The Cubs are the rational front runner
The Chicago Cubs remain the odds-on favorite as we enter the final day.
• The Offer Structure: Rumors suggest the Cubs are using the Shota Imanaga contract (which included unique club/player options) as a blueprint, likely adjusted for Imai’s younger age (27).
• The Fit: with a clear #2 rotation spot behind Justin Steele, Cubs are seen as the “most rational” destination. Analysts expect an offer in the 5-year, $125M – $150M range, rather than the initial $200M projection.
The “White Sox – Boras “Surprise”
The Chicago White Sox have rapidly emerged as a “serious contender” rather than a long shot. Mostly driven by Scott Boras planting media stories
• The Murakami Momentum: After signing Munetaka Murakami last week, the White Sox are attempting to build a Japanese “pipeline” in the South Side.
• The Strategic Play: Because their payroll is significantly lower than the Yankees or Mets, they can offer a higher “take-home” value without the same tax penalties, potentially out bidding high CBT burdened teams like NYY, NYM, TOR
Other “Finalists in the Room”
• The Atlanta Braves: Reported “growing interest” . They have roughly $10M of cushion before hitting the 3rd luxury tax threshold and could view Imai as the final piece of a championship rotation. They are Boras’ most credible threat to Cubs.
• The Philadelphia Phillies: While they have been quiet, Dave Dombrowski is known for “swooping in” at the 11th hour. But their CBT loaded payroll might be an obstacle
I’m guessing Houston
My best guess is the Houston Astros come out of left field and sign him. 3 years 63 million opt outs after the first 2 years.
Astros
Astros nice pick up.
The Colt 45’s.
Proving how risky it is to write something of this nature.
I’m with the astros signing him 🙂