The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.
Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.
Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.
In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.
O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.
Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)
Lock Soroka up in an extension. Foolish if you don’t in my opinion. Swanson, honestly both 6 and 6.7 seem fair. He’s a good candidate for a cheap extension also, but I think it’s a riskier one due to inconsistent play. Just make sure to lock up Freddie also.
Right. Like they should’ve locked up Folty after his breakout? Hard pass on locking up pitching. Pitchers more than any position have to prove they can stay healthy.
Folty NEVER pitched as well as Soroka EVER!!!
James, that’s not true. In 2018 Folty was absolutely dominant. For one year, he did. Then he wilted. You can’t technically say never ever though, and absolutely not in all caps.
Even during that year he was a head case, If you dont think so you werent watching his games At least Soroka has a brain.
If you want to say Folty has never been as composed as Sororka, I can’t argue that. He hasn’t. You’re saying he never pitched as well though, which for one year he did. I believe he was a Cy candidate in 2018.
I’m a Braves fan, and I watched the games. Some guys can pitch effectively even when they’re wired that way. Folty just derailed after 2018. I’ve always felt he had talent, though. I’d like to see him go to somewhere like Baltimore and pitch to try and rebuild himself.
Folty had health issues from the bone spurs but he was a head case.
Folty and Soroka aren’t in the same boat at all. Truth be told, soroka had a much healthier statistical minor league career than Folty at a younger age. Then his first taste of pro ball went significantly better than Folty as well. The idea is to lock up a guy like soroka for a deal that will otherwise be really expensive as he advances in his career. Aka, i team friendly deal at this age. So even if he has “health problems” (which lets be honest, he hasn’t really shown much cause he’s been a work horse his amateur and minor career) then it won’t sting too bad cause we have a team friendly deal. It’s if he turns Ender lvl bad that we then are hurting lol
I wouldn’t classify Sororka as injury prone exactly, either. My concern with extending him now is how does the Achilles impact him moving forward? I’m drawing a blank right now as to pitchers who have had Achilles injuries, but I know I’ve seen NFL players and NBA players not quite the same after. So will Sororka have issues moving forward? Maybe someone can point out a pitcher who has been through it, and that may change my mind some?
Adam Wainwright.
Soroka is a stellar SP but I fear he’s headed for Thor land with his injury history
Until Soroka gets a stomach virus, nah he’s fine
He had his best season tossing 174 IP (173 ERA+) at 21 y/o, a year after missing time from a shoulder strain. And a freak Achilles injury. Thor threw quite a few IP and is a high velo guy – Soroka pitches to contact. Hope he picks a T-shirt up a Thor Land. lol
DMC really stated capably why Thor and Soroka is a bad comparison. That injury this season was pretty freaky and kind of gruesome. But going forward, I would trust Soroka to be the healthier option. Is he just as talented? I say the jury is still out on that question.
Go with arbiter number and assess at All Star break. If he is who he was in 19-20, pay him (Soroka)
Have to go with the lower number on Soroka, as much as it pains me. He didn’t pitch at all this year.
I’d like to see the Braves sign
1. Ozuna back (even if no DH this year I assume it’s coming next year)
2. Tommy La Stella – Shift to 3B and push Riley back in the OF
3. One of Yates/Colome/Hand/Rosenthal
Do this and I’d argue they’re the favorites in the NL.
Well if you sign Ozuna and there is no DH then Riley would not have a spot in the OF to play…so it would be either Ozuna or La Stella, not both. Let’s hope it is Ozuna.
Well..I’d say maybe Riley not a starter is kind of a good thing?
Im with ya
It could still work even with no DH. It would put La Stella and Riley in more a platoon situation but that’s ok
It would also create greater flexibility when others in the infield or outfield needed a day off.
I wouldn’t give them best in NL, but I would say strong contenders. The NL West has a strong main 2 teams(SD, LAD), that I think will be possibly 2 of the top 5 in the NL, if not top 2-3. Also, the Mets look good right now, and are making a strong bid to compete in their division at the least. The NL is starting to look better and better as time passes so we might start seeing more competition amidst NL teams and interdivision matchups
The favorites?? Lol just look at my name and all I need to bring up is that 3-1 lead. If the Dodgers stand pat they are still the favorites in the NL.
I think the Dodgers are better than the Braves, but to be fair, if the Braves ran the bases correctly, the Dodgers aren’t even in the World Series. The teams are close.
And are the Dodgers bringing back Turner and Peterson and Hernandez? Three players who had come through the the clutch for them in the past. Even part-timers contribute to the winning that cant always be replaced by younger talent. Yes the Dodgers are the reigning champions. Is it tough to repeat? Yes, it is.
If the Braves sign Ozuna, they’ll ride with Riley at 3B. If the DH is implemented, they can look at mid-tier FA options for LF or 3B, or trade a mid level pitching prospect for Bryant.
I don’t know why they don’t sign Ozuna. If they were willing to sign him for QO money in a non-DH season coming off a down year, why not go back to him for maybe one more year in LF before he shifts to DH? Either 3yr/60M plus an option year or 4/72 should get it done.
What’s his k rate per 9
There’s baseball reference. Just click on his name and you can see all his stats. Soroka is a groundball pitcher so his k/9 isn’t outstanding.
i wouldnt extend either. Soroka’s injuries are concerning and I dont think Swanson’s hitting stacks up in a golden age of hitting SS.
Your grammar doesn’t stack up to the golden level of first grade. You should just scratch out pictures in stone walls instead of posting so many comments.
lolzmets is a troll in his third incarnation. He’s obsessed with DarkSide and thinks he’s some kind of editor when he’s repeatedly been proven wrong.
Soroka has one fluke injury and one injury that was followed up by a dominant season. That’s not exactly cause for concern. As for Swanson, his hitting was coming around big time in 2019 before his wrist injury and the improvement continued through this yr.
I wouldn’t really say Soroka is injury prone just yet. Tearing your achillies isn’t something that you can forsee to happen. If he comes back strong in 2021, I’d be getting extension work laid out.
I would extend Soroka if he has a solid and healthy 2021 campaign. I’m not very high on Dansby, he put together his first healthy season but it was 60 games.
Are they really doing this to Soroka over 700$ K is the real question here ??!!???
I don’t know if it’s still their policy, but the Braves have been a rigid file and trial policy team in the past.
Swanson is a massive tease that Braves fans keep falling for. I said he wasn’t a top 10 SS before 2020 and got attacked. Then of course he couldn’t maintain his hot start. ATL needs to find a replacement withing 2 years.
How is he not a top 10 SS?! That’s an insanely ridiculous take. I’ll give you Story, Lindor, XB, Tatis Jr. and Baez top him. Gleyber is stellar at the plate, but he may move off SS? After that I’m taking Dansby. Dansby plays big when it matters.
Shortstops who are definitely better than Dansby:
Tatis, Lindor, Story, Seager, Correa, Baez, Bogaerts, Turner, Anderson, Torres.
Shortstops who are arguably better than Dansby:
Bichette, Gregorius, Semien, Simmons,
He is a solid player, but not a top ten shortstop.
I did forget Seager, which is my mistake.
Correa is a cheater, so I disagree.
I’m not taking any of your arguable picks over Dansby, though.
A few other names that you could potentially make a case for is Nick Ahmed, Paul DeJong and Willy Adames.
“how is he not a top 10 ss”….by pretty much any objective statistical measure.
In 2020, he was a top-10 player and the number one SS, if you go by bWAR.
I would make a list but Dan already did.
Lol no one “attacked” you.
Don’t take everything so literally.
I would hold off a year amd see how Soroka comes back from the Achillies injury but if everything is good I work on an extension asap.
I’d extend Dansby long-term immediately.
I’d hold off on Sororka. The talent is there but the injuries are concerning. It doesn’t matter how good a player is if he can’t stay on the field. As they say, availability is the greatest ability.
Extended both if the price Is cheap enough. I think Soroka is the real deal and Dansby is good enough at defense that if he falls off a cliff offensively it won’t hurt too bad. Dansby has been great in the playoffs anyway.
I think players that prove they want to play every single day and through nagging injuries like (Swanson, freeman, Markakis) deserve to make the higher end of their arbitration difference when you’re just splitting hairs. Effort and compassion deserve a BONUS.
If Ozuna signs elsewhere, how about a trade package for Castellanos and Castillo from Cincy? Castellanos presents the same defense issue as Marcell and would be a DH moving forward, but his bat is strong. It seems like the Reds are willing to sell, so maybe a non-Pache, non-Waters package for Castillo and Castellanos could be worth exploring?
Both need another year before extensions. If they prove themselves, it would be best probably for the players post pandemic as money may free up. Of course Braves could throw out a low ball extension that in these financial times players may take.
Soroka is coming off a near-league-minimum salary and a lost year in 2020. I don’t see him winning in arby. Dansby is coming off a $3.15M salary in his fourth season and had his first fully healthy year in a short season. I think he’ll win his arby case.
If the Braves offered Dansby a 3/24 extension, I wonder if he’d take it?
No sense signing a pitcher to an extension who hasn’t shown durability.
Ozzie Albies must be kicking himself for signing that extension. He’s 3 years younger than Swanson, playing better ball for just as long and making half the salary.
If Swanson gets a big contract, they should send some extra bonus over to Albies.
Not sure if you guys have done these before and I just missed ’em, but this was a cool poll! Props!
I highly dislike the Braves – always have. However, we have to be objective. This guy is the closest thing to a young Maddux (who actually struggled some in Chicago, but not much). You watch – this guy is going to be a HOF pitcher. Y’all should sign him to a big and long deal.