The Rays have had “recent discussions” about a contract extension with outfielder Randy Arozarena, FanSided’s Robert Murray tweets. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that Arozarena is one of several players with whom the Rays have inquired regarding a potential long-term deal, but nothing is close on any front. Still, it’s of at least some note that the team is getting a sense of what it’d take to get last year’s breakout star signed to a long-term pact.
Arozarena, 26, was acquired from the Cardinals in the trade that sent top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. He didn’t end up being promoted to the big leagues until late August, but his impact was nearly immediate. Arozarena homered in his fourth game with the Rays and proceeded to go on an otherworldly tear that catapulted him into the national spotlight during postseason play.
From his Aug. 30 debut through the end of the regular season, Arozarena posted a huge .281/.382/.641 slash with seven home runs through 76 plate appearances. That was impressive enough on its own, but he somehow managed to not only improve upon those numbers in the playoffs — but to do so in dramatic fashion. Through an even larger sample of 91 postseason plate appearances, Arozarena erupted with a Herculean .358/.429/.790 batting line. He launched 10 long balls during that historic stretch and took home ALCS MVP honors in the process.
Between the regular season and the playoffs, Arozarena gave the Rays 167 plate appearances of .324/.409/.724 production with a ridiculous 17 home runs in that time. Obviously, that level of output isn’t sustainable, but producing at that rate — often against high-caliber, high-leverage pitchers in the postseason — speaks to the upside Arozarena possesses.
Of course, there are other elements to consider. That’s an exceptionally small sample, impressive as it may be, and Arozarena has never been nearly that productive in the minor leagues. He’s struggled through a dismal Spring Training, slashing just .237/.256/.289 with a 28 percent strikeout rate that is roughly in line with last year’s strikeout tendencies. He was also briefly detained in Mexico over the winter after allegedly getting into a physical altercation with the father of his former girlfriend during an apparent custody dispute regarding Arozarena’s daughter. Arozarena and his former partner reached an agreement to settle the matter without further legal action being taken, however.
The Rays currently control Arozarena all the way through the 2026 season, and he won’t even be eligible for arbitration until the 2022-23 offseason, depending on whether he secures Super Two status. He’s currently on pace to enter that offseason with two years, 129 days of big league service, which would indeed lead to Super Two eligibility based on recent history.
Currently, Ronald Acuna Jr.’s $100MM contract with the Braves is currently the largest ever guaranteed to a player with under one year of Major League service time, though that contract came after Acuna had racked up 487 big league plate appearances and been named National League Rookie of the Year. More plausible points of comparison, speculatively speaking, could be the White Sox’ contract extensions with Eloy Jimenez (six years, $43MM) and Luis Robert (six years, $50MM). Both of those deals, however, came before either player had taken a single big league plate appearance.
I’m cool with this. Maybe then I’ll get a Randy jersey and it will be relevant for three years before they trade him.
If they extend him through his arb years they’ll probably keep him until one or two years left, so probably 4 or 5 seasons
Please Baseball gods, either this or a new stadium in Ybor.
The reliable Marc Topkin also reporting that the Orioles have had extension talks with Chris Davis.
Why? The guy has had 84 career plate appearances. Can we see a complete season before deciding?
*Padres offer Arozarena $400m*
I’d wait to see how this year plays out before committing to a player who seems fairly promising and had an unworldly post-season. A crazy postseason performance has never necessarily translated to longterm reliability.
True, but the Rays specifically traded Liberatore to get Arozarena. So they obviously saw him as being a long-term controllable piece anyway. When the trade happened, Neander was already talking about him hopefully being a cornerstone for the team in the future. And that was before he obliterated 2020
78 PA, is the tiniest of sample sizes, Randy has a chance to be a good player, but try not to blow up 3 weeks worth of baseball into a HOF player.
You will look just like Jays fans back when they said Brett Lawrie was gonna be a MVP talent after dropping .953 OPS in 171 PA in 2011, Well Lawrie couldnt get within 220 points of the OPS the rest of his career, and Lawrie was younger then Randy..
Not sure who you’re complaining to about this, Teufel. Nobody here said anything about him being a superstar because of 78 PA, or is using that as the reason for extending him.
Arozarena can only hit fastball and mistake look for him to crash after the pitchers get a book on him
Of course, the Rays should look at a long-term. Sure, it’s a risk if he is a flash in the pan but they could save quite a bit in the long-term if he ends up being a star. Plus, if he has a big first half, his asking price will double and the Rays will trade him by 2024 if not sooner.
My general view is most players who have the chance to be above average or better should not take these contracts as they will end up better in the long-run.
He won’t hit FA until he’s 31. He should take a deal now.
If he becomes a stud, he’ll make it up through arbitration. Sure, he gets some financial stability but good players should bet on themselves – teams are taking advantage of guys who may not have much money.
Plus, there are a lot of these 3rd party companies now that can front-load him money now if he wants it. Even if it is at jimenez money, that is a steal for most franchises if you are a good player.
It all depends on what the offer is of course. But to make it up through arbitration he’ll have to keep up production over the next five years and not get hurt. If he can guarantee tens of millions of dollars now, he should. The extension might not even extend past the arb years anyway, so he can keep some upside if he does keep it up.
Rays trying to find another sucker to sign a deal!
Acuna signed a good majority of his prime away for that brand new chain. It’s a shame. I would’ve probably signed it, too, though.
Acuna was like 20 though. He would’ve hit free agency at the same age Randy is starting his career. Apples and oranges I think.
Don’t sign it Randy.
The other obvious comp that is missing is Brandon Lowe. He signed for 6/24 when he barely had rookie eligibility left as a 24-year old who was a good but not great prospect and broke out in a big way towards the end of the 2018 season. Obviously Arozarena would get more than that, but age is not on Arozarena’s side (it decreases his bargaining leverage that he won’t be a free agent until he’s 31) and before last season he wasn’t that highly touted. These other guys were all young hotshot prospects. Furthermore, as someone who didn’t get a big signing bonus out of Cuba and is supporting a kid, his mom, his brother, his wife and his baby mama, getting a big payday sooner will be a much bigger incentive for him than for others. I’d guess he will sign a deal, but it will probably look a lot like Jimenez’s deal.