The Blue Jays drew plenty of headlines over the offseason for their reported interest in seemingly every free agent available. It took until late January, but the club rewarded the fanbase’s patience by landing premier center fielder George Springer on a six-year, $150MM guarantee. Various injuries have mostly kept Springer off the field to this point, but the Jays are getting a ton of production from their other key position player acquisition: Marcus Semien.
Semien was one of the more difficult free agents to value last winter. He’d been a solid regular from 2015-18, combining consistently league average offense with strong shortstop defense and durability. The 2019 season brought an offensive breakout, with Semien unexpectedly hitting .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs. He didn’t follow up on that incredible year during the shortened 2020 season, though. Semien got off a terrible start, and while he finished the year on a hot streak, his overall .223/.305/.374 line was closer to his average hitting from 2015-18 than his fantastic numbers the year before.
With some uncertainty about his true offensive talent level and teams curtailing free agent spending on the heels of the shortened season, Semien elected to take a prove-it deal with the Jays. He signed a one-year, $18MM guarantee with Toronto just a few days after the club added Springer, agreeing to slide to second base in deference to Bo Bichette in the process. In the early going, it looks like a great decision for both player and team.
Semien is off to a career-best start at the plate in 2021. The 30-year-old is hitting .288/.355/.545 over his first 220 plate appearances. He’s completely regained his 2019 power stroke, posting a personal-high .258 ISO (slugging minus batting average), while his thirteen home runs is tied for sixth in MLB.
Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of that production seems to be the result of him simply hitting the ball harder more consistently. Semien is barreling up 8.5% of his batted balls this year, per Statcast- a better than average mark he’s only ever matched in the aforementioned 2019 season. His average exit velocity is up to a career-best 90.5 MPH, a more than 4 MPH improvement over his figure from last season. He’s also gotten more pull-oriented on his fly balls. The improved thump is no coincidence, since pulled flies lead to the most power-friendly outcomes for a hitter (the league is slugging 1.474 on such batted balls this year).
Whether Semien can sustain something like this level of production all year is still uncertain. The increase in power has come with an uptick in strikeouts to a carer-high 26.4%, and his contact rate is down more than five percentage points from that 2019 campaign. It’s also worth considering the Jays home environment. The team spent the first two months of the season at their Spring Training complex in Dunedin, which, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com recently pointed out (Twitter link), played very hitter-friendly. With the Jays moving to Buffalo (and perhaps eventually Toronto) over the next couple months, Semien’s ability to continue hitting for this kind of power is worth monitoring.
The Blue Jays have already gotten plenty of return on their investment in Semien, but there’s much at stake for both in the near future. At 25-24, Toronto will need to play better to stick in the AL postseason picture. Semien, as an impending free agent, would be a logical trade candidate if the Jays fall out of the race. (A midseason deal would remove the possibility of a team making a qualifying offer, which would only improve Semien’s market value). The upcoming free agent shortstop class has drawn plenty of attention, with Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Carlos Correa all hitting the market. Semien’s older than those four, but he’s also outperforming them all to this point- with the added bonus of proving he can transition to second base if needed without issue. In the process, he’s setting himself up for another fascinating trip to the open market.
Wanted the Mets to get him. Bluejays did a good job with that.
This story wouldn’t have existed if he signed with the Mets. He did a good job with that.
Even when an article is about another player on another team, a Mets fan needs to comment about New York
every. damn, time.
So anytime a player is having a good first year and a fan says, “damn, I wish we got him”, the fan is then interjecting his own team, every. damn, time. Got it
spot,,,,.on..,..,,,
@andremets I think RunDMC is directing his comment more towards a particular user. If this had been a Jays post about Springer, MetsFan22 would’ve said something troll-ish like “Boy, did we dodge this bullet. I told you all Springer was a walking landmine.”.
How does it feel that you had 3 shots at the WS when the Mets were a mess and now that we have legit ownership your window got wasted??!!
How does it feel to not win a WS ring for 35 years now?
@MetsFan22 It’s pretty delusional if you think the Mets are a factor into the Yankees not winning a recent title.. The last time I checked, there are still 28 other teams in the league.
Just because Steven Cohen bought a majority stake in the Mets doesn’t mean that he’s a legitimate owner. They can be just another very expensive toy for him. He could effortlessly let Conforto and Thor walk and run a fire sale at the end of the season ala Jeff Loria. But for the sake of baseball. let’s hope that’s not the case. Cohen has zero track record right now.
Hard to throw Home vs Away splits on any Blue Jays hitter since they are not actually playing in Canada.
.276/.351/.563/.914, 147 wRC+ – Home
.297/.358/.532/.889, 147 wRC+ – Road
You were saying?
Semien always seemed to hurt us when he played for the A’s. I’m happy we got him. Hopefully, something has clicked in him and this is the player he really is.
He already has a top 3 in MVP voting season.
With so many big money teams not needing a shortstop, next offseason should be wild.
5 recently labeled “elite” SS, 4 of which are in peak age range still
1 big money team known to be buying?
Yes, yes it will be interesting
Mets were so foolish to lock one up to highest contract before seeing how low their values will actually go – a deal that has ironically since then gone from dumb to unimaginably bad
baerga, alomar, and now lindor.
each one acquired by a different mets owner from the indians, each one instantly fell of a cliff.
baega and alomar never really recovered, hopefully lindor bucks that,,
Yes. All complete package, Swith Hitting Middle infielders that batted 2-3rd in the Indians lineup immediately before the trade too
Baerga is a truly fascinating comparison though
22yo, 105 ops+ (Lindor 106)
23yo, 128 ops+ (Lindor 116)
24yo, 124 ops+ (Lindor 132)
25yo, 119 ops+ (Lindor 117)
26yo, 108 ops+ (Lindor 101)
First season with the Mets
27yo, 72 ops+ (Lindor 60 atm)
The A’s misread this one. No QO for Semien. Elvis Andrus with a wRC+ of 39.
Why are we still trotting his instant-out in the lineup, simply because he can play defense? Nick Allen is better than Andrus right now at every aspect of the game, including being the best defensive SS in maybe all of MLB. Bring him up!
They probably don’t want to start Allen’s clock, and they probably want to see if Pinder can take the roll at Short, I personally don’t think he can, but eh.
Either way, I wish the A’s traded for Willy Adames and not the brewers it made more sense for Willy to head there since the A’s are missing a true shortstop. And Adams’s production, while bad, isn’t as bad as Andrus.
Allen’s playing for the US national team right now.
Might also be connected to him hitting leadoff most of the year in front of Bichette and Guerrero. Will be interesting to see where he hits when Springer gets back.
If Springer ever gets back lol.. I’ve seen Jays fans online acting like he’s never gonna see the field his entire contract. I even heard my mother saying something like that when I was visiting her the other week lmao.
I hear that too, the thought has crossed my mind lol but he’s been relatively durable most of his career I think. Just a nagging injury that he rushed back from and made it worse in the process. I’m personally excited for the future of this team, the current core is producing and have some upcoming young talent in the pipeline as well.
I hope he comes back 100% and rakes, but remember $4m of the current years payroll is going to Tulo. Hopefully we can get more bang for our buck on this one.
White Sox never should have traded him…
Sox sent Chris Bassitt to Oakland in that Semien trade also. On top of that Sox drafted him twice and three years apart.
Yea and for who did they get back? Jeff Samardzija????
There were quite a few Jays fans on these boards after they signed him saying he was barely a replacement level player. How’s the crow taste?
No one cares but you, these are anonymous comments sections that are impossible to search anyway. Bad waste of your energy by caring so much about others being “wrong” when its still May, and again, you dont even know who these people are. Be better.
@A’sfaninuk
I think the guy was just making a point, no need to lash out at the fellow lol.
There were certain “expert” Jays fans on here as recently as a few weeks back saying Semien was a bad deal and a blunder by mgmt.
I wish they had signed Walker but Semien was no mistake as performance has shown.
Markkko, it’s not about Semien. It’s about your hatred for Trevor Bauer. Bauer had to be signed by the Jays, higher priority than Semien and Springer. You are the one coming up with fake salaries Bauer would sign for and you are the one claiming the Jays couldn’t sign both Semien and Bauer. The “experts” said the Jays needed starting pitching and they still do. Your contribution useless but consistent.
While I certainly agree on the needs. I think it’s important to remember that we don’t always get to a view of behind the scenes. There’s a realistic chance that Bauer just didn’t want to be a Blue Jay unless it was a massive overpay. Given what he got out of the Dodgers, that type of contract might have have come at a cost to what else they need to do to the roster in the new few years to get over the top
So Bauer who effectively is making 42.5M AAV over 2 yrs would have signed with the Jays for less ?? Dream on. But hey you are entitled to your opinion just own it like a man when you are wrong as you were about Semien .
I see you have not changed and still continue to insult those who disagree with you. Time for you to grow up We are/Wild Bill Et al.
C-Daddy there is four months left in the season. Cool it with the rhetoric. 40’ish games is far from a final say on any player.
I think the issue most Jays fans had was spending $18 mil on Siemen rather than spending that money on a SP or two.
It’s a small correction but the Blue Jays are actually 25-24, not 24-25
Semien has been solid af. I was a little apprehensive when they signed him (as alluded to above there by c-daddy) but he has been very good and I will be bummed if he’s not back next year.
Have loved watching this guy after he put in amazing amounts of effort to improve his defense at the beginning of his tenure with the A’s. I believe he was a product of wash’s defensively, watching his family show him love on Father’s Day games. The guy is a legit human, I miss having him in the bay but wish him nothing but the best!
A’s made a moronic move letting him walk and not even giving him a QO, because now they replaced Semien with Andrus and are still (for reasons unknown) are allowing Andrus to be tone of the worst players in MLB while the A’s are one of the best teams in MLB.
Contenders should never tolerate scrubs like this, but in this specific case, with players falling like flies this season due to not enough spring training or preseason conditioning, Andrus might actually not be the worst case scenario for them. I’d much rather prefer to see him as a rarely-used bench piece, with the A’s trading for Story or a real MLB hitter who plays SS and can make a difference offensively with consistency, not this “once every 2-3 weeks” crud Andrus is forcing on us.
@A’s I mean the A’s have budget restrictions so I can understand not giving Semien a QO. Isn’t Khris Davis their largest recent player expenditure? They’re also very good at cutting their losses quickly. You have to give more credit to them bc they’re a team consistently competing and finding cheap talent. Andrus has been a replacement-level plus and healthy player for most of his career and he’s not expensive with the money the Rangers are throwing in. You and I both know the A’s will never splash on a big SS. Be happy you have a very competent front office.
I’m amazed at how much Andrus has fallen off these past two years. He use to always hit 270 with around a .700OPS and decent defense pretty consistently. Now the fellow can’t hit his weight and his defense has seemed to take a step back. It’s not like he is 40 either, he is still fairly young relatively speaking. I hope he improves because I’ve always been a fan of Andrus but it’s starting to look like Elvis has left the building.
Phillies tried hard for him. Would’ve been a nice add. I love Didi. An absolute delight on Twitter and a fun guy to root for, but Semien would’ve fixed the defense up the middle. It’s nice to see him hitting as well.
Well in the minority (which is to say, all alone), I said in the offseason that the Yankees should sign Semien at a bargain price, move Torres back to second base, and let LeMahieu walk.
Semien’s OPS+ is 147. LeMahieu’s is 101.
Semien’s BA is .288. LeMahieu’s is .264.
We’re at only about 50 games into the season, Semien is a good player but the Yankees were buying DJ’s versatility and consistency. Glad to see Semien bounce back with the Jays.
You didnt do a thing here, DJLM will surge back and have better numbers by September.
Is this where we’re at? People going “gotcha” like 5 minutes into the season? Knock that off. Wait til August at least before bringing stuff like that up. It’s May.
“DJLM will surge back”
Surge back to what exactly?
LeMahieu is a career 100 wRC+ hitter who currently sits at a …101 wRC+
On top of that, he only has an 88 wRC+ on the road for his career. If anything, its more likely his line is high right now and he should expect to be somewhere between 90-100 when all is said and done
Should also be pointed out that 90-100 would be one of his best seasons of his career, since he has posted a wRC+ above 95 in just 3 of his 10 seasons in the bigs
My calendar says June is a few days away. Yours is different in England?
Funny I was watching the Bluejay game yesterday and seen his surprising stats and thought the same thing. I would still have DJ over Marcus any day.
He had a .516 OPS in Oakland and .630 in LA last season, there’s your answer. He merely went from a hitters black hole to a more neutral or even hitter friendly park/division.
Pretty ridiculous to cherry pick stats from last year on home/away and not include the previous season. Especially considering his home OPS in 2019 was .928.
Semien is having his best year but you have to factor in the Dunedin AA park they play in. I have seen some games there and it is very hitter friendly. Notice the other day the Jays hit like six or seven homers and still lost. What is the record for the most homers hit in a game and still losing ?
The Shamrocks may be happy they signed Semien but Semien is not happy he signed with the Shamrocks. There was a story recently saying he hates playing in the Florida State League park where all the fans cheer for the other team. I’ve been to Sox games in Toronto where it’s exactly the same, where the only cheers you hear are for the Red Sox. . LOL!!
Yah that never happened
Toronto loves their Jays but Toronto was a great place for Sox and Yankee fans to plan a mini vacation. See their team , great tickets, Canadian dollar was 75 cents. great theatre in Toronto. great zoo and aquarium, Great amusement park called Canada’s Wonderland… etc..
What I always liked was you’d get more money back on the dollar than you spent. If you bought something for $5 with a US 20, you’d get 22 back in their money. .Always seemed there were more Red Sox fans at the game in Toronto than there were Toronto fans. Easy to get good seats there too. And cheap. We had a lot of Sox home games in Toronto 10-15 years ago. Whenever ‘Let’s go Red Sox’ would start up the Canadians would start booing. When we’d cheer a player, they’d start booing our player instead of cheering for their own. They seemed very conscious of it being a pro-Red Sox crowd, and they didn’t like that. They disliked being the away team at their home park more than they liked their own team. You hardly ever heard them cheer their own players.
Le Grande, time to wake up from your dream as what you posted never, EVER happened!
Our Canadian ‘friend’ here can tell us what he thinks never happened. That their dollar was worth less then 75 cents? That the seats at their baseball games were plentiful and cheap? That the stands were filled with Red Sox fans and presumably Yankee fans as well? All this tells me that we have a fairly typical Canadian ‘Blue Jays fan’ here. He’s obviously never been to a ballgame in his life. LOL!!!
Live 3 hours from Fenway. 2-3-4 games a year with my Jays gear. It goes both ways. Damn border.
Grande is actually correct. 15-20 years ago Red Sox and Yankee fans filled the seats.
Hi Anthony,
Can you kindly fix the spelling error of the word ‘carer-high’? Please & thank you.
“The increase in power has come with an uptick in strikeouts to a ‘carer-high’ 26.4%, and his contact rate is down more than five percentage points from that 2019 campaign.”
It’s between the word ‘to a’ & ‘26.4%’.
If the Tigers draft either Lawlar or Meyer in July, Semien would be the ideal solution at SS for the next 5 years. He should command less money than the younger SS FAs (like Seager, Story and Correa) but still be an instant pillar in the lineup.
Gruß,
BSHH
You may be right: The Tigers will likely continue to stick to the plan and draft pitchers their organization is unfit to develop and SSs that can’t field.
This just proves it. Al Avila stinks.
Unfortunately for the Jays, while Semien’s results offset the Springer results, they only have Semien for one year, and Springer for the next half-decade.