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Extension Candidate: Jose Berrios

By Mark Polishuk | October 10, 2021 at 7:06pm CDT

“However, it still wasn’t enough to get the Blue Jays into the playoffs” is the inevitable add-on to any description of the Jays’ many positives in 2021, as despite winning 91 games, Toronto fell a game short of a wild card berth.  For instance, Jose Berrios came as advertised for the Jays, posting a 3.58 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate over 70 1/3 innings after Toronto acquired the righty from the Twins in a blockbuster of a trade deadline swap.

The Jays had the third-highest fWAR (7.1) of any group of starting pitchers in baseball from August 1 onward, as Berrios joined with Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and Steven Matz to quietly turn Toronto’s rotation into one of the best in the league.  Berrios threw the second-most innings of any in that group, as his durable right arm proved especially valuable when Ryu battled some injury problems down the stretch.

And yet, it was still wasn’t….you know the rest.  While the Jays’ window of contention still looks to be wide open going forward, their near-miss in 2021 was costly since free agents Ray, Matz, and Marcus Semien could all be playing in other uniforms next year.  The clock is also now ticking a little louder on Berrios, who is under control for one more season before hitting free agency himself after the 2022 campaign.

That extra year of team control only added to Berrios’ value as a Twins trade chip, and in landing Berrios, the Blue Jays gained some insurance if Ray and/or Matz do leave this winter.  But, that insurance came with a steep premium, as the Jays had to surrender two consensus top-100 prospects to Minnesota — Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft), and Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the young arms the Jays acquired as part of the Marcus Stroman trade in 2019.

Toronto was willing to meet the Twins’ asking price in ordre to have Berrios on hand for two postseason pushes, and now that first push has come up empty-handed.  Signing Berrios to a contract extension would certainly alleviate a lot of the extra pressure inevitably associated with that trade, not to mention the more important big-picture aspect of locking up a front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

Looking at recent extensions for starting pitchers, Lance McCullers Jr. signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros last March that might serve as a floor for a new Berrios contract.  McCullers was entering his age-27 season at the time of the signing, and Berrios just turned 27 last May.  The McCullers extension also only covered his 2022-26 free agent years, as the righty and the Astros had already agreed to a $6.5MM salary for 2021, McCullers’ last arbitration-eligible year (though the deal did provide McCullers with a $3.5MM signing bonus).

As per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Berrios is projected to earn $10.9MM in his final arbitration-eligible season of 2022, a hefty bump from his $6.1MM salary from 2020.  So while something in the range of that salary could be baked into a potential extension, Berrios has the extra security of knowing he has a nice payday already coming his way this winter.

I cited McCullers as a floor rather than a true comp for a Berrios extension because Berrios has simply been the more valuable pitcher.  McCullers had posted some very solid career numbers at the time of his extension, though only over 508 2/3 innings, as a Tommy John surgery and some other injuries limited his usage.  If anything, the Astros were rolling the dice in committing $85MM to a pitcher with McCullers’ injury history, though his strong performance in 2021 should help quiet some doubts.

By contrast, Berrios has been the picture of durability throughout his big league career, never once making a trip to the injured list with either the Twins or Blue Jays.  Berrios has tossed at least 192 innings in each of the last three 162-game seasons, and his 647 2/3 IP since the start of the 2018 season ranks fifth among all pitchers in baseball.  Beyond just the durability, Berrios also has a 3.71 ERA/3.96 SIERA over the last four seasons, with an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate.  Berrios’ hard-hit ball numbers are a little inconsistent, but 2021 saw him post the best grounder rate (42.8%) and walk rate (5.8%) of his career.

With this track record, Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman can surely argue that if McCullers is getting $85MM over five years, their client’s extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency.  Should Berrios post his typical numbers in 2022, he’ll certainly land a nine-figure deal next offseason, and his camp will undoubtedly keep a close eye on how the free agent deals signed by Ray, Stroman, and Kevin Gausman this offseason will raise the bar for the pitching market.

It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency.  “[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July.  Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary.

In short, it might be that nothing short of an overpay on the Blue Jays’ part would convince Berrios to forego his shot at the open market.  Since George Springer is the only Jay guaranteed money beyond the 2023 season, Toronto has plenty of open payroll space to work with, but with some caveats.  The Blue Jays will have to do some spending to replace or re-sign their impending free agents, and the team’s list of future commitments will grow exponentially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, etc. are inked to extensions of their own.

Extending Berrios could be a tall order for the Toronto front office, though the team undoubtedly factored this into their plans when they traded for him in the first place.  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Jays’ backup plan is surely to recoup draft pick compensation for Berrios via the qualifying offer (assuming the QO rules aren’t changed in collective bargaining negotiations) to help fill the dent left in the farm system by the departures of Martin and Woods Richardson.  While the sting of that trade will be erased if Berrios does help the Jays to some October success in 2022, the club will certainly explore ways to keep Berrios in the fold for more than just one more run at a championship.

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Extension Candidates MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Jose Berrios

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34 Comments

  1. bucsfan0004

    4 years ago

    I think Berrios likes the team in Toronto, and in order for that trade to make sense, the Jays should feel obligated to sign him to a nice extension

    1
    Reply
    • Deleted User

      4 years ago

      Feeling obligated is a horrible way to make financial decisions.

      13
      Reply
      • The Mets "Missed WAR"

        4 years ago

        I think that was a bad trade for the Jays given their situation. Berrios is a good pitcher and the Jays are a good team but trading away future long-term star talent in Woods-Richardson and Austin Martin for just over a year of Berrios didn’t make sense. That’s the kind of move you make when you are already in first place and trying to give your team a deeper run in the playoffs. It would have made sense for the Jays to make that trade if they were in a different division. But when you’re staring up at all 3 of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays it is a bad move because even making the playoffs in that situation is a slim chance. Going deep enough to stand a chance of winning it all is even slimmer. They might be better next season because of it but the Jays really hurt their team in 2023 and beyond. Those 2 players they gave up are very good and I wouldn’t be surprised if they started making an impact as soon as next season. I know everyone loves to see teams “go for it” but they shouldn’t do it at the detriment of their own future when the deal still leaves them likely to miss the playoffs entirely. Like I said, that deal only makes sense if the Jays are already in first place and they are trying to turn their playoff team into a World Championship team. They jumped the gun and they gave up too much on top of that. No one is happier the Jays made that trade than the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. That’s not a good thing for Toronto.

        4
        Reply
        • Deleted User

          4 years ago

          You vastly over value prospects. Both SWR and Martin are 50-55 grade prospects which just means everyday regulars. Not stars.

          Also, line breaks. It will make your novels a lot more tolerable if you knew how to type in paragraphs.

          15
          Reply
        • scottbour

          4 years ago

          It’s was an excellent trade for Jays. They missed the playoffs by 1 game. They get Berrios all of 2022 and should make the playoffs. I am not a Jays fan but this was a good deal for both teams.

          1
          Reply
        • The Mets "Missed WAR"

          4 years ago

          For some reason when I type on my phone it removes the line breaks. I put them in though. Maybe the prospects are overrated? I don’t know. I know Austin Martin was highly regarded going into that draft and people thought the Jays got a steal taking him at 5th. Most people had him going #2 overall and I even read some analysis saying he should go #1 ahead of Torkelson because Martin is more than just a bat. Players develop. They get better throughout their time in the minors. “everyday regulars” aren’t usually considered worth drafting with a top 5 pick. I know it happens but that’s not usually the expectation they are drafted that high and I think it’s way to early to assume Martin can’t meet his initial expectations. He has plenty of time to grow as a player. The main point was that acquiring Berrios likely won’t be enough to win the Jays a Championship next season and obviously wasn’t going to this season. The other 2 players could have helped them a lot down the line. I love the Jays team and I liked the direction they were headed. I don’t like it so much more after that trade. They are serious underdogs in that division. They need to take the Rays approach and wait until their core alone gets them to the playoffs before they start trading away future core players for a short term boost. I personally believe Martin and Woods would have provided more over their 6 or 7 years in the organization than Berrios will provide in less than a year and a half. Not to mention it seems like the Jays would have had a better chance to contend in those future years than they were as a 4th place team this year. This deal reminds me of a not quite as bad version of when the Pirates traded for Chris Archer. Obviously Berrios is a better pitcher but it doesn’t really matter because the Jays are unlikely to beat out the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to win it anyway. When your competition is that good, slow and steady wins the race. Unless the Jays are going to spend over $200 million every year that’s th only way they can beat the teams that do. Just like the Rays are doing.

          1
          Reply
        • Ted

          4 years ago

          Exactly right, Steve Nebraska. Prospects rarely develop into players as good as Berrios, but fans often just pencil them in to the future as full time stars.

          Reply
        • mp9

          4 years ago

          Austin Martin is a superstar caliber!! Just look at his numbers in first full season and draw comparisons to Alex Bregman & Anthony Rendon that says. A lot about his potential.

          1
          Reply
        • Brent97 2

          4 years ago

          Thats the funny thing about baseball there are far more top5 draft picks that dont pan out to be mlb players then there are sucess stories. So yes martins looks like a stud but he could turn into nothing exciting. If he was a true cant miss prospect he would already be in the majors alas tatis jr. Instead hes still in AA as a 22 yrs old. Not a knock on him in anyway it was his first pro league after all.
          I think the Jays took that into consideration and tried everything to keep martins but the twins wouldnt budge.
          The other thing to think if the jays could land berrios and the breaking point was martins the Jays probably thought he was 2 or 3 years away at best by then vlad bichette and hernandez etc are due for big raises plus martins was blocked in toronto for the forseable future.. A healthy Springer in center is 10x the player martins is now. SS is covered by bichette and they have 2 highly touted prospects in martinez and smith and 3rd is protentially covered with groshan and the aforemented smith as well.. So ultimately no room for martins.

          Reply
    • jaysfan77

      4 years ago

      I think that trades makes sense when you factor they knew when they acquired him they’d be getting QO picks for Ray and Semien.

      3
      Reply
      • bigdaddyt

        4 years ago

        Not to mention Berrios getting a QO after next season too if no contract extension is made

        5
        Reply
    • iverbure

      4 years ago

      The jays are going nowhere unless they add two top of rotation starters. Ray doesn’t know the ball is going and matz is a dfa candidate and is #47 starter.

      Said Kevin Gausmen shouldn’t get a QO.

      Jimmertrees quotes in case he comments on this thread.

      Jays of course had one of the best rotations in the game this year after he pegged them having one of the worst even though they played in minor league stadiums for home games half the year.

      1
      Reply
  2. Old York

    4 years ago

    I’d pass on him. Plenty of better options out there. They should take a chance on bringing bsck Noah Syndergaard.

    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      4 years ago

      Thor is a huge question mark at this point. why not lock in the more consistent Berrios?

      14
      Reply
      • Old York

        4 years ago

        I’m not sure what you mean by huge question mark. Are you suggesting he has no idea how to pitch anymore? He’s had consistent performances all through his career in the MLB. Just because he had surgery means he can’t pitch anymore? Would you say the same for Chris Sale?

        Reply
    • infractor

      4 years ago

      I’d pass on a proven, durable, high end starter on a contending team in favour of an extremely hit or miss one who has spent more time injured than not.

      I dunno man….

      1
      Reply
      • Old York

        4 years ago

        If we followed your advice, we would never have signed Ray.

        Reply
    • Brent97 2

      4 years ago

      At the same time stroman said hed be open to a long term contract to come back to Toronto…him and synderguaard nice lol but id be tempted to throw a contract at synderguaard in hopes to catch lightning in a bottle again like with ray. He could be a serviceable 5th starter. No worse then Pearson.. Who has proven over and over again he cant stay healthy long enough to earn a rotation spot.
      Maybe its time to think of pearson as a short high leverage flamthrowing reliever and convince ryan borucki to try starting since i was never convinced he was built for the bullpen. He was always highly touted to be a 3-5 pitcher but he prefers reliever and hes failed so far at being good

      1
      Reply
      • TalkSomeSense

        4 years ago

        Borucki actually preferred being a starter but he kept getting injured so he was moved to the pen to try and alleviate the injury woes. Putting him back in the rotation won’t work.

        Reply
  3. Wallstreetbets

    4 years ago

    He’s the pitcher you sign I think we can let Ray walk.

    1
    Reply
  4. Ronk325

    4 years ago

    The real question is do the Blue Jays have the money to re sign Ray and Semien along with extending Berrios? My guess is they either focus on bringing back Ray and Semien and concede that Berrios walks after next year or they only bring back Ray then work something out with Berrios

    Reply
    • Ted

      4 years ago

      Berrios is less risky. Extend him, sign Semien, and then throw whatever is left at Ray.

      Ray is too risky IMO to throw 9 figures at, but someone will.

      2
      Reply
      • bigdaddyt

        4 years ago

        Don’t forget Teo is probably looking to get paid this winter too. Jays need to desperately unload Grichs contract. If they can without taking on salary they can sign Teo and Marcus using Grich, Ray and Marcus’s money from 2021. Ray is such a weird guy in terms of next contract. I worry about giving a huge contract to a guy who throws 2 pitches and has major major 3rd time through the order issues

        Reply
        • firegibby

          4 years ago

          Teo is under control and not a free agent

          Reply
        • bigdaddyt

          4 years ago

          Did I say Teo was a free agent?

          Reply
        • firegibby

          4 years ago

          You said sign him.

          Reply
        • bigdaddyt

          4 years ago

          Ya, he needs a contract and is approaching FA next offseason. The entire year the jays beat writers and broadcasters have been saying how they need to get him locked into a long term contact now. Just cause he’s under team control doesn’t mean he’s gonna be cheap this year either I’d imagine he’ll make good money in arb considering he might get back to back silver sluggers

          Reply
        • iverbure

          4 years ago

          How on earth do the jays get rid of Grichuks contract without taking money back and bad money. Unless they attach prospects to him which seems like a god awful idea.

          The only thing I can see possibly happening is Grichuk goes to Milwaukee for Jackie Bradley jr. at the very least you get a above average CF who hits LH which the jays need. Since Springer isn’t a full time CF and never has been.

          Reply
        • Ted

          4 years ago

          Teo won’t be a free agent until after 2023. I’m not worried about signing him yet.

          Reply
      • Ronk325

        4 years ago

        I agree Berrios comes with less risk but he also has a lower ceiling. If they believe that Ray’s issues with walks are gone then keeping him makes a lot of sense. I think Semien is the most likely of the three to walk since the Blue Jays would still have a potent lineup without him and they also have a lot of middle infield options both on the big league roster and coming up the farm

        Reply
  5. amk1920

    4 years ago

    Better extend him after trading Austin Martin to get him

    Reply
  6. DonOsbourne

    4 years ago

    Does anyone else think Berrios’ track record makes him more risky rather than less risky? All pitchers break down eventually. Berrios has accumulated a fair amount of miles on the Major League odometer at a young age. I would say the chances of him sustaining a major arm injury during his next contract are pretty good. Toronto would probably be smart to let him play out his contract, then make a QO if he is still healthy, and then let someone else pay him to break down. Handing out extensions to justify past trades is bad business in any sport.

    1
    Reply
  7. jimmertee

    4 years ago

    I loved the Berrios deal by the Jays. Only one problem, it needed to be made last spring not at the trade deadline. That is what cost the Jays the playoffs. They needed 2 SP and 2 RP right out of spring training last year and that was called then too.

    I think SWR might not even make the big leagues and Martin will be a good player but not a star. It was a good deal by he Jays. I doubt the Jays will pay him though.

    For Iver, Ray was a surprise because for the first time he bulked up in the offseason. The fat content in his body was drastically reduced.. He took off 25 lbs of fat and put on 25 lbs of muscle. How does a player do that in one offseason?

    Iver, as for Matz, I called him to be 3-4 if he wasn’t walking everyone. He was hot and cold. Exactly as called.

    1
    Reply
  8. sfes

    4 years ago

    This really is an impressive lineup. If they can put it together next year the Jays will be beasts

    Reply

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