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Extension Candidates

Extension Candidate: Adley Rutschman

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Within the last four years, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Evan White, and Scott Kingery all signed their first multi-year Major League contracts before even debuting in the Show, as clubs began to increasingly explore the idea of the “pre-career” extension.  The logic is simple — if a team thinks it has a can’t-miss prospect, signing that prospect to an extension before his service clock begins can give the team both cost-certainty over the player’s arbitration years, as well as control over at least a few free agent years via club options.

Robert’s six-year, $50MM pact with the White Sox (that could be an eight-year, $88MM deal if Chicago exercises a pair of club options) in January 2020 represents the high-water mark for pre-career deals, yet it is worth noting that the Astros were something of a pioneer with this tactic.  Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM contract in June 2014 before playing his first MLB game, and Houston also notably explored such a contract with George Springer prior to the future All-Star’s big league debut.  This period overlaps with Mike Elias’ time (2012-18) in the Astros’ front office, and now that Elias has since moved on to run his own team as the Orioles’ executive VP and general manager, it is worth wondering if Elias might attempt locking up his own blue-chip prospect.

Adley Rutschman is widely expected to not only make his MLB debut in 2022, but also get the bulk of playing time as Baltimore’s starting catcher.  Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom were recently signed to minors deals to provide at least some Major League experience in the team’s catching ranks, but either will just be a placeholder until Rutschman gets the call to the big leagues.  Whether this debut happens on Opening Day or a few weeks into April may hinge on whether or not the service-time manipulation issue is addressed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but an extension for Rutschman would make that question moot, and guarantee that Baltimore fans will get to see Rutschman as soon as possible.

The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman has done nothing but reinforce that pedigree during his brief pro career.  Rutschman already received two promotions up the ladder (to A-ball) in his first season in 2019, and after working out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, he tore up the farm system in 2021.  The catcher hit .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs over 543 combined plate appearances with Double-A Bowie (358 PA) and Triple-A Norfolk (185 PA).

An argument can be made that Rutschman could use a bit more seasoning at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’ll be taking over a position that requires so much extra work in terms of pregame preparation and working with pitchers.  However, as noted in Baseball America’s scouting report, Rutschman may be a bit ahead of the curve in this respect, due to his time spent with veteran pitchers, catchers, and Major League coaches at the 2020 alternate training site.  Plus, Rutschman was already seen as a strong defender even in his college days at Oregon State, and BA now gives him a strong 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (to go along with an eye-popping three 70 grades in hitting, power, and throwing arm.)  Both BA and MLB Pipeline rate Rutschman as the best prospect in all of baseball.

In short, Rutschman seems like the kind of cornerstone prospect that any team would covet, especially an Orioles club that has been grinding through a top-to-bottom rebuild during Elias’ entire tenure.  The O’s already see Rutschman as the next face of the franchise, and an extension would only cement that status.  Given that the Orioles have almost literally no money on the books beyond the 2022 season, there’s plenty of payroll space to commit to a hefty contract for the burgeoning star.

For Rutschman and other star prospects presented with pre-career extensions, the question is simple.  Does the player feel comfortable in taking a big payday now and locking in at least one eight-figure fortune from his baseball career, or does the player feel like betting on himself to perform as expected in the majors?  The latter route carries more risk, but potentially sets the player up for even more money down the road, either through rising arbitration salaries, bigger free agent money once he hits the open market, or even a later extension with his current team.

From a pure dollars perspective, Rutschman has already achieved some solid financial security, via his $8.1MM signing bonus from the draft.  This isn’t necessarily an indicator that he would be less open to an extension — Robert, for instance, already had a $26MM international signing bonus in the bank prior to his extension with the White Sox.

The added wrinkle in this case is Rutschman’s position.  No catcher has ever signed a pre-career extension — expanding the list to players with less than a year of service time, the Royals’ February 2012 deal with Salvador Perez represents the earliest pact ever given to a backstop.  Needless to say, Rutschman won’t be signing for a contract similar to Perez’s five years and $7MM in guaranteed money, though Perez did end up doing much better in two subsequent extensions with Kansas City.

Rutschman is enough of a top-tier prospect that the Orioles probably won’t have much concern over guaranteeing a big long-term deal to a catcher.  From Rutschman’s perspective, taking a big contract now might have some appeal as a hedge against potential injury, simply because catchers inevitably receive so much wear and tear (even if the DH or a potential move to first base down the road can help).  Plus, unless the next CBA adjusts when players are eligible to reach free agency, it will be quite some time before Rutschman can hit the open market.  He turns 24 in February, so if his debut is indeed pushed off to mid-April for service-time reasons, Rutschman won’t be scheduled for free agency until he is entering his age-31 season.

So while there are some valid reasons why Rutschman might be open to an extension early in his career, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would take a deal before his career gets underway.  It can be assumed that a Rutschman extension would top Robert’s record, and yet Rutschman might have eyes on a bigger target — such as the 11-year, $182MM deal Wander Franco just signed with the Rays in November.

Since Joe Mauer is the only catcher to sign a deal worth more than $182MM, Rutschman won’t top Franco’s number.  Plus, Franco is both younger (turning 21 in March) and plays shortstop, so he is more of a safer long-term play for an extension, even for a lower-payroll club like the Rays.  However, while Rutschman and his representatives likely wouldn’t be aiming to top Franco’s contract, the deal does serve as a reminder of the greater riches that can await a star prospect if he exhibits even some of that early promise at the MLB level.  While no reports surfaced whether or not Tampa explored a pre-career extension with Franco, had he inked such a contract, it would have been worth much less than his eventual $182MM guarantee.

Obviously, matching Franco’s excellent 2021 performance is no small feat for any player, especially a rookie like Rutschman.  But, just staying on the field and performing pretty well in 2022 would represent a nice showcase for Rutschman, and give the Orioles even more confidence in committing a major sum closer to the $100MM mark than simply a bump over Robert’s $50MM pact with the White Sox.

Given Rutschman’s status as an elite prospect, it is quite possible an extension akin to Robert’s deal could be on the table next winter anyway even if he doesn’t quite hit the “performing pretty well” threshold.  Barring a major injury or an unusual amount of struggles at the MLB level, the Orioles would likely still have interest in extending Rutschman prior to his sophomore year, considering all of his widely-touted potential.

A Rutschman extension would also have no small amount of symbolic value for the franchise.  Simply promoting Rutschman might have that same galvanizing effect on the long-suffering Baltimore fans, so Elias and the front office don’t necessarily need to rush into things just yet.  However, officially planting the financial flag on a new era of Orioles baseball would set a clear direction that the rebuild is almost over, and the organization will again start spending and looking to play some competitive baseball.

Extension Candidate: Jose Berrios

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“However, it still wasn’t enough to get the Blue Jays into the playoffs” is the inevitable add-on to any description of the Jays’ many positives in 2021, as despite winning 91 games, Toronto fell a game short of a wild card berth.  For instance, Jose Berrios came as advertised for the Jays, posting a 3.58 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate over 70 1/3 innings after Toronto acquired the righty from the Twins in a blockbuster of a trade deadline swap.

The Jays had the third-highest fWAR (7.1) of any group of starting pitchers in baseball from August 1 onward, as Berrios joined with Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and Steven Matz to quietly turn Toronto’s rotation into one of the best in the league.  Berrios threw the second-most innings of any in that group, as his durable right arm proved especially valuable when Ryu battled some injury problems down the stretch.

And yet, it was still wasn’t….you know the rest.  While the Jays’ window of contention still looks to be wide open going forward, their near-miss in 2021 was costly since free agents Ray, Matz, and Marcus Semien could all be playing in other uniforms next year.  The clock is also now ticking a little louder on Berrios, who is under control for one more season before hitting free agency himself after the 2022 campaign.

That extra year of team control only added to Berrios’ value as a Twins trade chip, and in landing Berrios, the Blue Jays gained some insurance if Ray and/or Matz do leave this winter.  But, that insurance came with a steep premium, as the Jays had to surrender two consensus top-100 prospects to Minnesota — Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft), and Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the young arms the Jays acquired as part of the Marcus Stroman trade in 2019.

Toronto was willing to meet the Twins’ asking price in ordre to have Berrios on hand for two postseason pushes, and now that first push has come up empty-handed.  Signing Berrios to a contract extension would certainly alleviate a lot of the extra pressure inevitably associated with that trade, not to mention the more important big-picture aspect of locking up a front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

Looking at recent extensions for starting pitchers, Lance McCullers Jr. signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros last March that might serve as a floor for a new Berrios contract.  McCullers was entering his age-27 season at the time of the signing, and Berrios just turned 27 last May.  The McCullers extension also only covered his 2022-26 free agent years, as the righty and the Astros had already agreed to a $6.5MM salary for 2021, McCullers’ last arbitration-eligible year (though the deal did provide McCullers with a $3.5MM signing bonus).

As per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Berrios is projected to earn $10.9MM in his final arbitration-eligible season of 2022, a hefty bump from his $6.1MM salary from 2020.  So while something in the range of that salary could be baked into a potential extension, Berrios has the extra security of knowing he has a nice payday already coming his way this winter.

I cited McCullers as a floor rather than a true comp for a Berrios extension because Berrios has simply been the more valuable pitcher.  McCullers had posted some very solid career numbers at the time of his extension, though only over 508 2/3 innings, as a Tommy John surgery and some other injuries limited his usage.  If anything, the Astros were rolling the dice in committing $85MM to a pitcher with McCullers’ injury history, though his strong performance in 2021 should help quiet some doubts.

By contrast, Berrios has been the picture of durability throughout his big league career, never once making a trip to the injured list with either the Twins or Blue Jays.  Berrios has tossed at least 192 innings in each of the last three 162-game seasons, and his 647 2/3 IP since the start of the 2018 season ranks fifth among all pitchers in baseball.  Beyond just the durability, Berrios also has a 3.71 ERA/3.96 SIERA over the last four seasons, with an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate.  Berrios’ hard-hit ball numbers are a little inconsistent, but 2021 saw him post the best grounder rate (42.8%) and walk rate (5.8%) of his career.

With this track record, Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman can surely argue that if McCullers is getting $85MM over five years, their client’s extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency.  Should Berrios post his typical numbers in 2022, he’ll certainly land a nine-figure deal next offseason, and his camp will undoubtedly keep a close eye on how the free agent deals signed by Ray, Stroman, and Kevin Gausman this offseason will raise the bar for the pitching market.

It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency.  “[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July.  Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary.

In short, it might be that nothing short of an overpay on the Blue Jays’ part would convince Berrios to forego his shot at the open market.  Since George Springer is the only Jay guaranteed money beyond the 2023 season, Toronto has plenty of open payroll space to work with, but with some caveats.  The Blue Jays will have to do some spending to replace or re-sign their impending free agents, and the team’s list of future commitments will grow exponentially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, etc. are inked to extensions of their own.

Extending Berrios could be a tall order for the Toronto front office, though the team undoubtedly factored this into their plans when they traded for him in the first place.  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Jays’ backup plan is surely to recoup draft pick compensation for Berrios via the qualifying offer (assuming the QO rules aren’t changed in collective bargaining negotiations) to help fill the dent left in the farm system by the departures of Martin and Woods Richardson.  While the sting of that trade will be erased if Berrios does help the Jays to some October success in 2022, the club will certainly explore ways to keep Berrios in the fold for more than just one more run at a championship.

Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez

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To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster.  He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future.  Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.

If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career.  Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season.  However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447.  This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.

Needless to say, those questions have been answered.  Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter.  Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line.  His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.

Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive.  Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.

Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise.  That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.

Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career.  Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score.  While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.

Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary.  He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.

That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension.  With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim.  Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline.  Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.

In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year.  However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now.  While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.

Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level.  While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason.  There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.

Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career.  Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011.  While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.

Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar.  The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.

Extension Candidates: AL East

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There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?

We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.

Blue Jays

The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.

One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?

On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.

Orioles

The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.

The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.

That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.

Rays 

The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.

As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.

As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.

In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.

Red Sox

After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.

Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.

Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.

Yankees

The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.

They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?

Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.

In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.

Extension Candidates: NL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East and NL Central. Here are some names to chew on from the NL West …

Diamondbacks

The Snakes have managed to control costs, compete, and build their farm system all at the same time. It’s a tricky balancing act to manage over any length of time. And extensions are a key component. Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar, and David Peralta are already playing on extensions. There are some other candidates on the roster as well.

Several Arizona veterans are conceivable candidates, not that any seems particularly likely to agree to terms. Hurler Robbie Ray is heading into a walk year, but comes with a pretty wide risk/upside spread. Recently acquired outfielder Starling Marte is already 31 years of age, so the club probably won’t be in a rush to work out a new deal with two years of control remaining. Reliever Archie Bradley is also two years from the open market; an extension could make sense in his case. The team will be looking at a big arbitration bill next year if Bradley racks up saves, while he’d surely be open to eliminating some personal health/performance risk.

The younger class of players contains some rather intriguing possibilities. Catcher Carson Kelly and starter Luke Weaver are both entering their final pre-arbitration season (the former via Super Two status). Though 2019 trade deadline addition Zac Gallen isn’t even close to arbitration, it could be an opportune moment to get something done.

Dodgers

When the Dodgers acquired superstar outfielder Mookie Betts, they knew they were giving up significant value for just one season of performance. Now, with the season on hold, there’s newfound uncertainty for all involved — particularly given that it’s not even clear yet whether Betts will hit the open market as expected this coming fall. After a few happy weeks together this spring, could the sides take advantage of the lull to discuss a longer-term relationship?

There’s no evidence of that happening, but it’d be a potential coup for the Dodgers. It would also be extremely costly. No doubt the team is at least as intrigued by the idea of finding some savings by locking in superstar slugger Cody Bellinger. Trouble is, the 24-year-old just landed a whopping $11.5MM contract as a Super Two. His arbitration eligibility could easily set an overall record and he’ll expect a long-term deal to reflect that and pay at a premium rate for any future free-agent campaigns.

There was a time when Corey Seager would’ve seemed an obvious extension target, but his place in the team’s plans is uncertain after some injury-limited campaigns. More interesting at this point are some of the newest members of the L.A. roster. Backstop Will Smith and infielder Gavin Lux each carry huge promise and some MLB experience. Though the Dodgers haven’t led the league with aggressive early-career extensions, both of these players are sensible targets.

Giants

Yikes. It’s not a good sign to see a roster that lacks for extension candidates — unless, perhaps, many young players have already agreed to deals. In this case, the Giants have a combination of veterans playing out underperforming contracts and largely un-established younger players who don’t really seem in line for any long-term commitment.

If you squint hard enough, you could see Mauricio Dubon as a candidate if the team has really fallen in love since acquiring him last summer. But that’s probably unnecessarily aggressive. Otherwise, basically every conceivable possibility has too many areas of concern to warrant serious consideration. Perhaps the situation will look different this time next year — someone might step up with a big season; top prospects like Joey Bart or Heliot Ramos may turn into candidates for early-career extensions — but it’s hard to see much reason for talks at the moment.

Padres

The ideal outcome would be to secure the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. with a deal along the lines of the Braves’ pact with Ronald Acuna Jr.. The Friars will probably have to keep dreaming about that team-friendly arrangement, but there has been some reporting indicating the sides could hold talks. Tatis himself said in late February that nothing was cooking, but there’s every reason to keep a conversation going if there’s mutual interest. Righty Chris Paddack could certainly also be a candidate as well, though perhaps the added risks on the pitching side will keep the sides apart for the time being.

There are other younger players that could hold appeal in the right situation. On the position player side, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero, and Francisco Mejia could be considered. And among pitchers, you could easily see the merit of locking in Dinelson Lamet or Joey Lucchesi.

Oh, and the Friars do have one notable veteran in an obvious extension stance: closer Kirby Yates. There’s reason to believe the sides have some interest, but it’s not clear how likely it is a deal will come together. Yates is a late-emerging star reliever who’s two days from his 33rd birthday and one season away from free agency. His age limits his overall contractual upside, but he was absurdly dominant in 2019. It’s certainly possible to imagine both player and team seeing the sense in a deal.

Rockies

The Rox already have long-term control over German Marquez and Nolan Arenado. So … why not add Jon Gray and Trevor Story, making a strong core four over the long haul? Well, it’s not a simple situation for the Colorado organization. Trouble is, some brutal fortune in the free agent market has left little financial flexibility and a top-heavy roster. We can’t rule out deals for Gray and/or Story, but they’ll both cost a ton and would be hard to pull off — particularly given the ongoing drama with Arenado.

That’s not to say the Rockies couldn’t still look to other ways of achieving value. In particular, outfielders David Dahl and Sam Hilliard could be interesting targets. The former has had quite a few injuries and the latter has only spent about a month in the majors, but those factors might also drive down the price tag and with it the contractual upside. Otherwise, you could perhaps see some daylight for a deal with reliever Carlos Estevez if the Rox are fully sold on his 2019 showing. But the team already made a deal with its best reliever (Scott Oberg) and probably doesn’t need any more long-term bullpen entanglements.

Extension Candidates: NL East

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote earlier today, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL East …

Braves

We all love Freddie Freeman and so do the Braves. He’s now within two years of free agency … but he’s also already 30 years of age. Knowing how this organization operates, it’d be a bit of a surprise to see it go big to keep him around. At the same time, this might be the best window to do so.

It’s likelier that the team will look into deals with young players after scoring huge value in deals with Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last winter. The most obvious candidate is excellent youngster Mike Soroka, but there’s an argument for fellow starter Max Fried. Both are likely Super Two arbitration qualifiers next winter, so this could be a good time to achieve value. Mike Foltynewicz has some potential appeal despite his ups and downs, but he’s already earning big arb money and is just two years from the open market, so it’s tougher to see a deal that’d make sense for both sides. Perhaps there’s a scenario where a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson makes sense, but he may still want to wait for an offensive surge that the team won’t pay for on spec.

In terms of more creative possibilities … none of the Braves’ relievers seem particularly likely. If the team is particularly smitten with Austin Riley and/or Kyle Wright, despite some early stumbles, it could chase the upside. Among the pre-MLB players, outfielder Cristian Pache seems the likeliest (highly speculative) possibility. He’s already on the 40-man roster, unlike fellow outfielder Drew Waters and pitcher Ian Anderson.

Marlins

There are a few fairly classic extension targets in Miami. Quality third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson makes sense. Perhaps the team could make a run at backstop Jorge Alfaro if it believes in him. Both of those guys are 2+ service-class players, so they’ve got another year to wait for arbitration.

The same is true of interesting hurler Caleb Smith. Even less-experienced Miami starters could also be targeted, with Sandy Alcantara and perhaps Jordan Yamamoto representing interesting candidates.

There’s an argument to be made that the Marlins ought to consider some even bolder action. Their top position-player prospects — outfielder Monte Harrison and shortstop Jazz Chisholm — are each already on the 40-man roster, so there wouldn’t be any complications to locking them up. Risky? Sure, but the potential rewards are enormous. And they wouldn’t necessarily have to open the year on the MLB roster.

Mets

Pete Alonso stands out here. The lovable longball launcher may only be one season into his MLB career, but he has all the markings of a franchise face and community cornerstone. The team is obviously as smitten as are the fans, as it not only brought him up to open the 2019 season (rather than messing with his service time) but made him happy with a record sophomore salary.

There are some other conceivable position-player targets as well. Fellow breakout star Jeff McNeil is certainly of interest, though he’s already close to his 28th birthday and is under team control through his age-32 season. Pre-arb shortstop Amed Rosario could make sense after making strides in his second full season in the majors. The Mets obviously like J.D. Davis, though it probably makes sense to see if he keeps hitting and how the team’s needs develop with plenty of time before he’s a free agent. (Like McNeil, he’s under team control through 2024.)

There are also some candidates for new deals that are closer to free agency. It’s tough to imagine a deal with Noah Syndergaard given the ups and downs in the relationship and his sky-high ceiling; he’d surely require a monster payday to keep. But New York native Marcus Stroman seems cosy in his home city and might be amenable to a deal. As a walk-year player he’ll be seeking something like full market value. Outfielders Michael Conforto (4+ service class) and Brandon Nimmo (3+ service class) are certainly good enough players to approach. Want a bit of a wild card? How about righty Seth Lugo, who has turned into a heckuva reliever.

Nationals

The Nats’ situation is fairly simple to understand. The club has some glaringly obvious candidates, but it’s largely unknown whether it has attempted to start talks and (if so) whether it has any hopes of making a deal.

Juan Soto is the crown jewel. But he’s an exceptionally youthful superstar represented by Scott Boras. That’ll make it tough to get a deal done … especially if this eye-popping report is to be believed. Fellow outfielder Victor Robles isn’t as established or as certain, but perhaps there’s greater room there for the sides to find common ground.

Shortstop Trea Turner is the other most-obvious candidate. He’s 26 years of age and three full seasons from free agency. A high-quality all-around player who gamely battled through an injury, Turner could certainly be approached. He’s into arbitration with a big salary, though, so he has leverage. The Nats aren’t afraid to pay for quality, so it’s possible to imagine an agreement.

On the pitching front, there aren’t any rising young arms that seem primed for a deal. But with Max Scherzer two years from the open market … well, who knows? He is already 35 years of age, but perhaps the sides could line up on something that keeps the highly productive relationship going. After a challenging 2019 season, it’s likely that closer Sean Doolittle will be allowed to prove he’s still a top-flight reliever before getting his next deal, but talks can’t be ruled out.

Phillies

I don’t need to tell you the chief target for the Phils: it’s catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now one season shy of free agency. The sides ended up in an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on a 2020 salary. While they say there aren’t any hard feelings, Realmuto — who’s 29 tomorrow — has also made clear he’s not interested in taking a team-friendly arrangement. We might’ve spent more time talking about first baseman Rhys Hoskins as a candidate, but that seems unlikely after his late-2019 swoon.

This is an organization that has proven willing to do a pre-MLB deal, having previously inked Scott Kingery. Top third base prospect Alec Bohm makes some sense, but only if the team is committed to bringing him up early (if not at the start of) the season. He doesn’t have a 40-man roster spot just yet. Top pitching prospect Adonis Medina does, but it’d be rather speculative to lock into him at this point.

Extension Candidate: J.T. Realmuto

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It has been almost exactly one full year since J.T. Realmuto became a member of the Phillies, and needless to say, the Phils didn’t swing that trade with the intention of only keeping Realmuto for two seasons.  There has been talk of a potential contract extension between the two sides for several months, with mutual interest between both Realmuto and the club in a long-term commitment.

First things first, however, the All-Star catcher and the team are headed towards an arbitration hearing after a rather large difference in their submitted salary figures.  The Phillies offered Realmuto $10MM, while the backstop and his camp are looking for $12.4MM, in part out of a desire to move the line forward for future catchers going through the arb process.

It’s possible that this hearing could be avoided altogether if a Realmuto extension includes the 2020 season, though the Phillies could prefer to deal with Realmuto’s 2020 salary as a separate matter for luxury tax purposes.  Since every player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value of their contact, an extension that covers the 2020 season would put Realmuto’s value for the coming year at a much higher total than $10MM or $12.4MM, and thus would put the Phillies much closer to the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  As per Roster Resource, the Phillies are already close to the line with a projected tax number of roughly $204.6MM.

J.T. Realmuto

As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury noted back in November, a Realmuto extension that didn’t begin until the 2021 season would give the Phillies some extra breathing room under the tax limit.  Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and (if a club option isn’t exercised) David Robertson are all scheduled for free agency, which removes $45MM in salary obligations off the books.

If Realmuto’s extension doesn’t begin until 2021, however, that also changes the earning framework.  Realmuto turns 29 in March, so an extension would therefore begin with his age-30 season, knocking one year of his prime out of the contractual conversation.

That said, being out of his 20’s won’t stop Realmuto from landing one of the richest contracts ever awarded to a catcher.  The Oklahoma native has delivered four straight years of outstanding play, hitting .283/.335/.464 with 74 home runs over 2248 plate appearances for the Marlins and Phillies since the start of the 2016 season.  Defensively, Realmuto has been an above-average catcher over that stretch, and his glovework took a big step forward in 2019, as Baseball Prospectus ranked him at or near the top of the list in framing, blocking, and throwing out baserunners.  (Realmuto won his first career Gold Glove for his efforts.)

Health-wise, there isn’t too much concern for Realmuto after six MLB seasons.  While he underwent right meniscus surgery in September, the procedure was considered to be more of a general cleanup, and nothing that would keep Realmuto from missing any time this season or even in Spring Training.  His only injured list appearance was a three-week stint in April 2018 due to a back contusion, and both the Marlins and Phillies have sporadically played Realmuto at first base to help keep him fresh while still keeping his bat in the lineup.

Yasmani Grandal’s four-year, $73MM free agent deal with the White Sox from November provides a fresh comparable for a Realmuto extension, and gives Realmuto’s agents at CAA Sports a clear floor for negotiations.  Grandal received his deal entering his age-31 season, so an easy case could be made for Realmuto to receive at least a five-year, $91.25MM pact.

As we saw with Realmuto’s arbitration case, he has an eye towards helping catchers of the future, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him seek an extension that hits a couple of notable benchmarks — a deal that would make him the third catcher to both earn a contract worth $100MM or more (after Joe Mauer and Buster Posey) and also earn $20MM in average annual value (after Mauer and Yadier Molina).  Something as simple as a five-year, $100MM extension would check both of those boxes, though I could see Realmuto seeking a bit more in order to top Molina’s $20MM AAV.

Matching or surpassing the $23MM average annual value of Mauer’s contract probably isn’t feasible, as that record-setting eight-year/$184MM deal began with Mauer’s age-28 season.  Offering a higher AAV over a shorter timeframe has some advantages for Philadelphia, as the team wouldn’t be paying Realmuto too deep into his mid-30’s, though the Phillies might prefer to spread Realmuto’s value out to lessen his luxury tax hit.

Could a six-year deal be palatable for the Phillies?  Realmuto has been a durable performer, as mentioned earlier, and he could be transitioned into a first base role as he approaches his mid-30’s.  Depending on what the Phillies decide to do with Rhys Hoskins in terms of a future extension, Realmuto could even be a candidate to take over first base after the 2023 season, which is Hoskins’ final year of team control.  Philadelphia has a few interesting but non-elite catching prospects (Rafael Marchan, Deivy Grullon, Rodolfo Duran) who could be groomed as Realmuto’s eventual backup or successor, or perhaps even turned into trade chips if Realmuto ends up having the catcher position on lockdown for first half of the decade.

Six years could end up being a bridge too far for the Phillies, though Realmuto could have some leverage in pointing out the weakness of the projected 2020-21 free agent catching market.  While some decent backstops will be available, none are anywhere near Realmuto’s level, and his departure would leave Philadelphia back at square one behind the plate.  For a Phillies team that plans to become a consistent contender and has already shown its willingness to spend, letting arguably the sport’s best catcher walk away in free agency would seem like a curious move, especially given the significant package of young talent (Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart) the Phils gave up to get Realmuto from Miami in the first place.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Luis Robert

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Is there any prospect quite as exciting as a blue chip center fielder?  White Sox fans have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of Luis Robert ever since he signed for a $26MM bonus with the team back in May 2017.  It was a contract that put the Sox in the proverbial “penalty box” under the old international signing rules, yet the splurge seemed more than worthwhile given the Cuban outfielder’s potential.

Robert’s early progress was hampered by ankle and knee injuries, as well as a thumb sprain.  But, with a clean bill of health in 2019, Robert set upon tearing up the minor leagues, hitting a cumulative .328/.376/.624 with 32 homers and 36 stolen bases (out of 47 steal attempts) over 551 plate appearances for three different White Sox affiliates.  Robert moved from high-A Winston-Salem to Triple-A Charlotte by season’s end, and though he only has 47 games and 223 PA at the Triple-A level, his .974 OPS in Charlotte left little doubt that the 22-year-old Robert is ready for the majors.

White Sox GM Rick Hahn feels the same way, telling reporters in his end-of-year press conference that the Chicago front office didn’t see center field as an area of need this winter since Robert was slated to handle the position for much of the 2020 season.  As to when Robert could make his debut, however, is still up in the air, leaving open the possibility that the Sox could erase all service-time concerns and lock him into the Opening Day outfield by simply inking Robert to an extension.

If this scenario sounds familiar, the White Sox did the exact same thing with another star prospect in Eloy Jimenez last spring.  Before even appearing in a Major League game, Jimenez signed a six-year extension worth $43MM in guaranteed money, and could end up earning $75MM over an eight-year span if the contract’s two club options are exercised.  The deal far exceeded the previous record extension for a player without any MLB experience, which was a six-year/$24MM guarantee for Scott Kingery from the Phillies prior to the 2018 season.  (The Mariners and first base prospect Evan White also agreed to a six-year pact for $24MM in guaranteed salary this past November.)

Robert’s representatives are obviously likely to aim for an extension that will surpass Jimenez’s deal, with the argument that their client offers more future value.  Like Jimenez, Robert is a top-five prospect in the eyes of MLB.com and Baseball America — which rank him third on their top-100 prospect rankings — while Baseball Prospectus’ midseason top 50 ranking placed him fourth.  While Jimenez’s batting ability is renowned, however, evaluators aren’t certain if he’ll be able to offer much defensively as a corner outfielder, and a move to first base could be necessary even within a few seasons.

In Robert’s case, while there is some question as to whether he’ll stick as a center fielder over the long term, he certainly projects to play up the middle for at least the opening portion of his career, which only adds to his five-tool potential.  His 30-30 season across the minors in 2019 indicated his power and speed, and BA and MLB.com rank his throwing arm in the 55-60 range on the 20-80 scouting scale.  Robert’s plate discipline is perhaps still a work in progress since he only posted 28 walks against 129 strikeouts last season, though it isn’t unusual for any young player to deal with a lot of swing-and-miss early in his career.  MLB.com’s scouting report cites Yoan Moncada as a possible comp, and Moncada significantly reduced his own strikeout problems (a league-high 217 in 2018 to 154 in 2019) with the help of Chicago’s hitting coaches.

Beyond the argument that Robert has the higher ceiling than Jimenez, Robert can also seek the higher deal since he has less incentive to sign an extension.  Robert already has that $26MM, remember, so he has already banked one life-changing fortune from his baseball career.  (Jimenez, by contrast, had “only” his initial $2.8MM signing bonus from the Cubs.)  Unless the White Sox were to offer Robert something far above and beyond Jimenez’s contract, Robert might prefer to just bet on himself and see how his initial season or seasons progress before considering long-term deals.

Without an extension in place, the White Sox could keep Robert in the minors for at least the first few weeks of the season, or at least long enough to ensure that they’ll get a seventh year of control over his services.  This would be the latest instance of a team manipulating a top prospect’s service time, and this entire practice has been put under the microscope this offseason now that Kris Bryant’s service time grievance is currently being examined by an arbitrator.  While the arbitrator is widely expected to rule in the Cubs’ favor, a decision reducing Bryant’s remaining team control from two years to one would send many shockwaves around the baseball world, and impact how every club handles promoting its best minor leaguers in the future.  As such, the White Sox might wait until the arbitrator’s ruling before fully diving into extension negotiations with Robert.

Beyond Jimenez, Hahn has extended several other promising White Sox players (i.e. Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale) early in their careers over his seven-plus years as general manager.  A potential Robert contract could be the most unique and, in fact, most expensive of the bunch, though it would mark the latest aggressive move in a winter that has already seen Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, and Gio Gonzalez come to the South Side in free agency.  Since the club’s rebuild is clearly over, making Chicago’s center fielder of the future into part of the present could be the next step in the lead-up to the most anticipated White Sox Opening Day in years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Kyle Freeland

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Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in about two weeks.  Along with the relaxed vibes of baseball’s preseason comes long-term contract discussions for young players.  One standout from the 2018 season who could look to make a deal is Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland.

Freeland, 26 in May, was drafted eighth overall by the Rockies in 2014.  He reached the Majors in 2017, posting a solid rookie campaign with a 4.10 ERA in 156 innings.  That earned him a seventh place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.  Freeland’s peripheral stats were unimpressive, but you can’t argue with results – especially for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home.

Then, in 2018, Freeland took his game to the next level.  He posted a 2.85 ERA in 202 1/3 innings, ranking fifth among qualified NL starters.  That was good for a fourth place Cy Young finish.  Again, Freeland’s strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were nothing to write home about, but he was able to succeed by avoiding the middle of the plate and generating soft contact, as explained by Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs.  Sullivan cautiously drew a Tom Glavine comp, and wrote, “It’s not the most comfortable skillset to bank on, but, honestly, after looking at Freeland with a microscope, I have become a believer in his ability to move the ball around.”

I imagine the Rockies believe in Freeland more than anyone than perhaps his mom – they drafted and developed him, and they just watched him pitch perhaps the best season in franchise history.  So it would make sense for Rockies Executive Vice President & General Manager Jeff Bridich to look to broker a deal.  Bridich became the Rockies’ senior director of baseball operations in 2006, so he’s had a hand in approximately 20 multiyear extensions the franchise has done since then.  Bridich likely intersected with Freeland’s agency, MSM Sports, on Jamey Carroll’s 2007 deal.  MSM has also done extensions for Josh Harrison and Brandon Webb over the years.

So let’s talk numbers.  Freeland has exactly 2.000 years of Major League service, so credit the Rockies for not manipulating his service time back when he cracked the team’s rotation out of Spring Training in 2017.  There is a very clear template for contract extensions for starting pitchers with 2+ years of Major League service who fell short of Super Two eligibility.  The framework of a five-year, $30MM deal originated with Jon Lester’s contract with the Red Sox in March 2009.  Yovani Gallardo signed a similar deal with the Brewers a year later, and then they became commonplace for the next couple of years.  However, the trend has died off, with only Corey Kluber’s April 2015 deal existing as a somewhat recent example.

Kluber’s contract does not fit the mold – at $38.5MM, it was the largest of the bunch.  That’s with good reason, as Kluber’s career and platform year numbers dwarfed the others, and he was coming off a Cy Young award.  He mostly seems relevant here as a clear ceiling for Freeland.  Aside from the many comparable 2+ pitchers like Lester, Trevor Cahill, and Clay Buchholz, we can also throw a couple of 1+ pitchers into the mix in Julio Teheran and Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner received a $35MM deal in April 2012 with just one year and 127 days of service time under his belt, scoring a contract bigger than those in the 2+ class.  Teheran’s deal in February 2014 is also worth mentioning, as he simply didn’t have the stats of those who came before him (like innings and wins) yet landed a $32.4MM guarantee.  That’s just $100K less than Chris Sale, who signed a year earlier with superior stats across the board.  Teheran’s deal was thought to be a new benchmark at the time, but I think it raised expectations for young pitchers and their agents, mostly preventing subsequent extensions.

Freeland compares favorably to guys like Cahill and Buchholz, who signed very similar $30MM deals that bought out one year of free agency and included club options on two more.  Plus, those contracts are eight years old.  It’s possible Aaron Nola and Luis Severino can raise the bar for what successful starting pitchers (who nonetheless lack a Cy Young award) can earn their first time through arbitration if they win their hearings in February.  Plus, a good case can be made that Freeland should beat Bumgarner’s $35MM contract, as Freeland had the better platform year and pitches at Coors Field.

In my opinion, a fair deal for Freeland would be for five years and $35-37MM.  It would cover his final pre-arbitration season (2019), all three arbitration years, and one year of free agency, taking the deal through 2023.  One perk MSM Sports could fight for would be one club option instead of two.  Of the ten comparable deals I looked at, seven of them included two club options.  And two of the deals that only had one were the initial contracts in this mold, for Lester and Gallardo.  Beginning with Buchholz’s deal in April 2011, every pitcher accepted two club options with the exception of Teheran.  The Rockies will likely label Teheran an outlier, but we haven’t seen the Lester Contract type deal in the last five years.  A contract for Freeland would re-establish a precedent in case 2+ pitchers like Jose Berrios, Mike Clevinger, German Marquez, Blake Snell, Jameson Taillon, and Trevor Williams seek financial security.

Extension Candidate: Aaron Hicks

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In shortstop Didi Gregorius and center fielder Aaron Hicks, the Yankees entered the offseason with two obvious extension candidates among their position players. But since the Yankees’ season ended Oct. 9, when the Red Sox bounced them from the ALDS, Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Consequently, Gregorius will miss a large chunk of next season – his contract year – which could make him a more logical non-tender candidate than someone who’s up for an extension. That leaves Hicks, who’s also set to become a free agent a year from now. Considering Hicks’ production over the past couple seasons, perhaps the Yankees will work to prevent him from reaching the open market any time soon.

New York bought fairly low on Hicks in 2015, seven years after he went 14th overall in the 2008 draft, when it acquired him from Minnesota for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time that it was a surprise the Twins gave up on Hicks on the heels of an encouraging season. After Hicks was essentially a non-factor in a combined 150 games from 2013-14, he managed 2.0 fWAR in 97 contests and 390 plate appearances in his final season as a Twin. Along the way, the switch-hitter mixed approximately league-average offensive production (.256/.323/.398 with 11 home runs – good for a 96 wRC+) with quality base running (13 steals on 16 attempts) and plus defense in center field (two DRS, 6.9 UZR).

Upon landing Hicks – who was then 26 years old – Yankees general manager Brian Cashman declared, “We think Aaron Hicks is an everyday player.”

Cashman’s assessment looked wildly optimistic in Hicks’ first season in the Bronx, though, as he endured a horrid campaign in which he managed minus-0.2 fWAR in 361 PA. While Hicks was fine in the field, his offensive production plummeted. Among MLB hitters who racked up at least 350 PA, Hicks logged the eighth-worst wRC+ (64), batting a weak .217/.281/.336. And when he did get on base, Hicks swiped just three bags on seven tries.

To Hicks’ credit, he put 2016 way behind him in the ensuing season, even though he wasn’t a regular at the outset of the campaign. All told, Hicks slashed an outstanding .266/.372/.475 (126 wRC+) and offered easily above-average production against both right- and left-handed pitchers. He also registered solid power numbers (15 homers, .209 ISO) with appealing walk and strikeout rates (14.1 percent BB, 18.6 percent K), and chipped in 10 steals on 15 attempts. With another season of high-end defense factored in, the big-armed Hicks was worth 3.3 fWAR over 361 PA. The only problem? He went on the disabled list with an oblique strain on two occasions, thus limiting him to 88 games.

Until 2018, Hicks only had one 100-game season on his resume. However, Hicks is now coming off a career-best 137-game, 581-PA campaign in which he truly emerged as the full-time player Cashman thought the Yankees were getting when they landed him. Hicks essentially matched his 2017 rates and continued to fare nicely against both righties and lefties, but he did so over a much larger sample en route to a 4.9-fWAR showing. While Hicks’ slash line dropped a tad to .248/.366/.467, his wRC+ increased to 127. Statcast data backs up that production, as there was little difference between Hicks’ weighted on-base average (.360) and his xwOBA (.365). The 29-year-old helped the Yankees’ cause by mashing 27 homers with a .219 ISO, putting up terrific K/BB numbers (15.5 percent and 19.1 percent, respectively), stealing 11 of 13 bags and, per FanGraphs, contributing elite base running in general.

If there’s one statistical gripe with Hicks’ season, it’s that the advanced metrics didn’t particularly like his defense. After he totaled a whopping 15 DRS – including 12 in center – in 2017, he fell to minus-3 this past season. UZR (0.7) and Outs Above Average (minus-3) weren’t all that bullish on Hicks’ work, either. No matter, Hicks was still one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in 2018, and if the Yankees expect that to continue, they may try to lock him up in the coming months.

The question: How much might it cost New York to extend Hicks? Although several outfielders have signed extensions over the past couple years, none are that comparable to Hicks in production and/or his closeness to free agency. One possible exception is Charlie Blackmon, who – like Hicks now – had five-plus years of service time and was only a season away from free agency at this time a year ago. Blackmon ended up inking a five-year, $94MM guarantee to stay in Colorado last spring, when he had just begun his age-31/32 season. While Blackmon garnered that contract as a player who was a couple years older than Hicks is now, the former also offered a more accomplished track record. Blackmon was a two-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger recipient, an NL batting champion and a past MVP candidate when the Rockies ponied up for him. Hicks doesn’t have any such honors on his resume.

If Blackmon’s deal is out of reach for Hicks, perhaps one of the recent big-money contracts given to a center fielder in free agency would be more realistic. A pair of center fielders – the Cardinals’ Dexter Fowler and the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain – scored five-year contracts worth $82.5MM and $85MM, respectively, on the open market over the previous two winters. Fowler inked his pact on the brink of his age-31 season, while Cain signed his as a soon-to-be 32-year-old. Age is on Hicks’ side in both cases, then; however, like Blackmon, both Fowler and Cain had more established track records than Hicks when they signed, and it helped that they had multiple teams bidding on them in free agency.

While the comparisons are imperfect, Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports likely wouldn’t be out of their depth to push for an extension in the neighborhood of the contracts Fowler and Cain received. He still has another full season to play before he turns 30, after all, and is fresh off back-to-back years in which he was among the game’s premier center fielders. Whether the Yankees will consider an extension for Hicks this offseason is unclear, especially considering fellow outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier are under long-term control, and they may pursue Bryce Harper in free agency. For now, Hicks is projected to play 2019 for $6.2MM – a bargain in light of what he brought to the table from 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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