The Mariners closed the book on what turned out to be a roughly two-year rebuild with a 90-win season that saw them fight for a Wild Card berth up until the final series of the season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will add aggressively this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Marco Gonzales, LHP: $24MM through 2024 (contract includes $15MM club option for 2025, with no buyout)
- Evan White, 1B: $21.4MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; contract also includes 2027-28 club options)
- Ken Giles, RHP: $5.5MM through 2022 (includes $500K buyout of $9.5MM club option for 2023)
- Chris Flexen, RHP: $2.75MM through 2022 (contract includes $4MM* club option for 2023)
- Total 2022 commitment: $14.65MM
- Total long-term commitments: $53.65MM
*=Flexen’s option price doubles to $8MM with 300 total innings from 2021-22; he pitched 179 2/3 innings in 2021.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Mitch Haniger – $8.5MM
- Drew Steckenrider – $2.1MM
- Tom Murphy – $1.7MM
- J.P. Crawford – $5.0MM
- Diego Castillo – $2.6MM
- Paul Sewald – $1.8MM
- Casey Sadler – $1.3MM
- Dylan Moore – $1.6MM
- Luis Torrens – $1.6MM
- Non-tender candidate: Moore
Option Decisions
- Declined $20MM option on 3B Kyle Seager in favor of $2MM buyout
- Declined four-year, $66MM option on LHP Yusei Kikuchi; Kikuchi declined $13MM player option to become free agent
Free Agents
- Kyle Seager, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, Joe Smith, James Paxton, Sean Doolittle, Hector Santiago, Shed Long Jr.*, Jake Bauers, Ryan Weber*, Marcus Wilson* (*=outrighted and elected free agency after season ended)
Over the past three years, the Mariners have traded James Paxton, Omar Narvaez, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Kendall Graveman with an eye toward the future. This year’s deadline trade sending Graveman to the division-rival Astros in exchange for five years of control over Abraham Toro could go down as the final forward-looking, “big picture” trade of a veteran for young talent.
After all, the Mariners were in playoff contention until the very end of the year. They fell just shy of their first postseason appearance in two decades — the longest drought in Major League Baseball — but the performance of the young core acquired by Dipoto & Co. sets the stage for an active offseason.
One change that appears certain lies at third base. Kyle Seager, the heart and soul of this Mariners club for many years, fought back tears when manager Scott Servais pulled him from the ninth inning of Seattle’s final game. In one of the more emotional moments of the year throughout all of MLB (video link), the home fans chanted Seager’s name as the dugout emptied and he hugged and bid farewell to the only team he’s known. Seager was given the third base bag and took a curtain call clutching it over his head as he thanked a raucous fan base.
It’s almost symbolic, in a bittersweet way for fans, that this turning of the page coincides with the face of the Mariners for the past several seasons likely leaving. Seager’s $20MM option was declined at season’s end, and while a reunion can’t be expressly ruled out, the scene at T-Mobile Park on Oct. 3 certainly had the feel of a goodbye.
There’s no “replacing” a player this revered and beloved in the clubhouse — shortstop J.P. Crawford could scarcely speak when praising Seager after that final game — but Seager’s likely departure leaves an opening in the lineup. The aforementioned Toro could step into an everyday role in that spot but can also play second. Similarly, Ty France has experience at third base but is a better defender at first or second base.
Given how little the Mariners have on the books in 2022, there’s really no free agent who should be off limits. Seattle has only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts, and the arbitration class should only bump that number to around $40MM. This is the same ownership group that averaged an Opening Day payroll of $152.1MM from 2017-19.
Dipoto has already said this winter that he’ll prioritize “adaptable” free agents — those who are comfortable moving around if need be. He name-checked both Marcus Semien and Javier Baez when making those comments, instantly making each a potential fit. Kris Bryant is another such option — a possible everyday third baseman who could fill in as needed across the diamond or at any of the three outfield spots. Old friend Chris Taylor, meanwhile, has built a career on being “adaptable.”
What’s become clear is that there’s little interest in displacing Crawford at shortstop. The 26-year-old (27 in January) won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has cemented himself as a quality defender with an improving bat (.273/.338/.376 in 2021). Dipoto has already informed Crawford that the Mariners see him as the everyday shortstop. Perhaps Crawford would be amenable to sliding elsewhere if the Mariners got serious in a pursuit of Carlos Correa, but it seems far likelier they’ll make a run at players in the Bryant/Semien/Baez/Taylor tiers. Trevor Story is also in that “second” tier of free-agent shortstops and could feasibly improve his market by showing an openness to second base.
While Crawford, France and Toro each have 2022 spots locked down, Evan White’s future is less certain. The 25-year-old was the No. 17 pick in 2017 and inked a six-year, $24MM contract with three club options before making his MLB debut. So far, he’s struggled to a .165/.235/.308 slash in the Majors. It’s only 304 plate appearances, however, and White was surely hampered by a 2021 hip injury that required surgery. There’s still room for him to be a part of the future — he’s earning just $1.4MM in 2022 — but it’s tough to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup in a win-now season, especially with France’s breakout at first.
The Mariners don’t have a set DH and could use that spot as an opportunity to add even more offense — a Nelson Cruz reunion would be well-received by fans, for instance — but there’s no indication that’s a priority. In fact, keeping the DH spot relatively free may be of particular importance as the team hopes for better health from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.
A career .258/.343/.450 hitter (121 wRC+) through his first 464 MLB plate appearances, Lewis was limited to 36 games this year after undergoing surgery to repair a right meniscus tear. It’s not the first time he’s encountered right knee troubles; Lewis suffered a dual meniscus tear and ACL tear in that same knee in 2016. Setting aside some occasional DH reps for him could have obvious benefits.
Beyond Lewis, the M’s have two of the game’s most highly touted young outfielders in Jarred Kelenic and the yet-to-debut Julio Rodriguez. Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors but improved with a .233/.304/.455 line following the trade deadline and a .248/.331/.524 showing over his final month. Rodriguez, meanwhile, posted a ludicrous .347/.441/.560 line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s considered a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and could debut in early 2022.
Even after the trio of Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez, the Mariners are deep. Taylor Trammell had his own struggles during his 2021 debut, but he’s another now-former Top 100 prospect who posted solid numbers in Triple-A (.263/.362/.456) and only recently turned 24. Jake Fraley didn’t hit for average but was an OBP machine who walked in more than 17% of his plate appearances. And, of course, veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger returned from a harrowing sequence of fluke injuries to crush a career-high 39 home runs.
Haniger’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for years now, and there will surely be fans and pundits who speculate on his availability once again now that he’s a year from free agency. Howver, it’d be difficult to move him when he’s projected for a palatable $8.5MM salary and was a key middle-of-the-lineup presence in 2021. Seattle’s aim this winter is to deepen the lineup, and a trade of Haniger would run counter to that thinking. Dipoto is an open-minded baseball ops leader and could at least listen to offers, but a Haniger extension seems more prudent to explore than a possible trade.
Behind the plate, the M’s have a trio of options. Tom Murphy gives them a veteran who has had some big league success, while either Cal Raleigh or Luis Torrens could be a long-term solution. That depth could draw the interest of other clubs in need of catching help, with the Marlins standing out as a team who could entice the Mariners with some starting pitching.
The rotation will be a focus for Seattle this winter. Marco Gonzales shook off a terrible April, returning from a five-week IL stint to log a 3.60 ERA in his final 115 frames. Last winter’s low-cost dice roll on KBO breakout Chris Flexen was an overwhelming success, as Flexen turned in a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings. Top prospect Logan Gilbert had a rough patch in the middle of the season but was dominant down the stretch, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his final six starts. With a 4.68 ERA overall and terrific strikeout and walk rates, he earned a spot in 2022.
After that trio, there’s not as much certainty. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn were notable acquisitions during the rebuild but might be looking at bullpen roles in the future, given their struggles and a slate of impressive prospects yet to come. First-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are still on the rise, and 2019 second-rounder Brandon Williamson has only seen his stock soar since the draft. Matt Brash dominated in the minors and has likely already made the Padres regret parting with him in a trade to acquire Taylor Williams.
Even with all those prospects nearing the big leagues, the Mariners’ win-now mantra will push them to bring in some established veterans. With so much payroll space, there’s no reason to think the Mariners couldn’t ink one of the top pitchers on the market even after signing a free-agent bat. However, the safer bet may be to add some solid mid-rotation arms as opposed to the type of $100MM+ deals that could be commanded by Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.
The market has plenty of options, including Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Steven Matz. If the Mariners are open to some risk, Carlos Rodon was one of the game’s best starters when healthy this season but ended the year with some concerning shoulder troubles. A team in Seattle’s spot could view Rodon’s late injury flags as a means of buying a possible No. 1 starter at a discount. The downside is obvious with a pitcher who managed just 36 innings in the final 10 weeks of the season and saw a rapid drop in his fastball velocity, but with so many prospects providing depth, perhaps the Mariners can take that chance.
This is the first time under Dipoto that the Mariners are likely to be more active in free agency than in trades, but there’s probably a limit to how much they’ll spend on the open market. With the need for a big bat and at least one — if not two — rotation spots open, the Mariners will surely explore that route. By now, it’s well known that names like Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Merrill Kelly and others could be available on the trade market.
That said, fans of other clubs dreaming up scenarios to acquire the likes of Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Kirby, Hancock and other Mariners top prospects may want to pump the brakes. Dipoto said at the GM Meetings last week that there’s “no scenario” where he’ll move the very top prospects in his organization (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). Seattle has Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system though, so there’s plenty of value even in the middle tiers that could be used in trades. It’s also plausible that a controllable player without a clear path to playing time (e.g. Trammell, Fraley) could be part of a package for immediate help — be it in the lineup, the rotation or the bullpen.
Of course, the Mariners’ need for relief pitching is less acute, especially if Sheffield and Dunn join this mix. Breakout righty Paul Sewald went from a struggling Mets depth piece to a powerhouse closing option who fanned nearly 40% of his 2021 opponents. The M’s struck gold on a minor league deal for Drew Steckenrider and picked up a big-time righty from the Rays at the deadline in Diego Castillo. Former All-Star Ken Giles will join that trio in 2022 when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Casey Sadler won’t repeat his ridiculous 0.67 ERA but has locked a spot down. Seattle also received promising showings from Erik Swanson and Yohan Ramirez, and they’ll have a full season of Andres Munoz and his triple-digit heater now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery.
If there’s one area the Mariners are lacking, it’s a lefty. A pursuit of Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup seems sensible, and this is another area where a trade might make sense. The M’s could also look at Sheffield here and/or give Anthony Misiewicz a bigger look. Misiewicz’s 4.61 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but he had better marks from metrics like FIP and SIERA.
However the Mariners choose to attack the offseason, it’s unlikely to look like any we’ve previously seen since Dipoto took the reins in Seattle. He’s previously preferred to operate primarily on the trade market, but the Mariners have gotten to that sweet spot where their squeaky clean payroll outlook overlaps with an elite farm that is teeming with MLB-ready talent. The nexus of those two enviable characteristics should open the door for considerable spending this winter and perhaps another big swing on the trade front. The Mariners are veritable locks to add at least one impact bat (likely in the infield) and figure to be active in bolstering the rotation.
With the Athletics going into an obvious rebuild, the Rangers still working to emerge from their own building phase and the Astros perhaps bidding farewell to free agent Carlos Correa, the Mariners’ time is now. They know it, and so does the rest of the industry. It’s going to be a fun offseason for Seattle fans.
Not an M’s fan, but as someone who dislikes the Astros, really hoping they step on the gas pedal this offseason.
I have no doubt that they will. This is THE year to make a significant push.
I can’t believe Evan White gets paid more money than Ozzie Albies.
…and White was heavily criticized for accepting that contract.
What does that have to do with this being the year to push?
The Mariners should do most of their heavy lifting in free agency and fill the remaining holes through trade. Semien is priority #1.
Semien should top the list.
They could balance the lineup better by trading for Marte or signing Escobar (or getting both), but there should be at least 2 new bats in the lineup, preferably 3.
Just seen the Oakland A’s bought your favorite player from Tampa Bay Rays.
I honestly think the Mariners are gonna win the division. All they need is some pieces for their hitting. In my mind, Kris Bryant or Javier Baez/Trevor Story would fit perfectly. One or more of those three, Ty France, Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, potentially Julio Rodriguez, and a ton of great prospects will make this team formidable. They’re gonna be the definition of a dark horse next year.
I don’t even think the horse will be that dark, maybe a light chestnut. I mean, Houston is probably losing Correa and whoever they get will be worse unless it’s Seager. Even so, the M’s weren’t eliminated from the playoffs until the final weekend and finished only 5 back in the division. KB or Story and a good SP would narrow that gap significantly.
I can’t see Bryant in Seattle. His bat does not project very well long term. Story and Baez both play SS and could back up Crawford at SS, which means Seattle wouldn’t be forced to carry an extra bat on the bench like Dylan Moore, just because he’s SS insurance. Semien and Corey Seager would both make great acquisitions.
I also like Mark Canha, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Conforto. The team could use 4 outfielders next season as a revolving door with the DH, as well as a major left handed bat in the lineup(C. Seager, M. Conforto).
Andrew Chafin is my preferred choice to sign for a left handed reliever. Heck, I think the M’s should still go after Graveman. It not only would be a major boost to the morale, but he’s had success here and would definitely bring back some veteran leadership now that Kyle Seager won’t be coming back.
I like all three of the A’s pitchers being on trade block(Bassitt, Montas, Manaea). Follow it up with an Anthony DeSclafani,Tyler Anderson or Marcus Stroman signing and you can call it a done deal. Paxton might be nice too.
Strange post. You know Baez and Story are not signing to be backups, right? Would Seager lplay third when he could go almost anywhere and play ss?And curious why Bryant’s bat does “not project well long term”? Maybe you can illuminate, or at least inform the teams considering signing him? What about…pitching? You do address this at the end, but shouldn’t this be front and center? Are there any players you *don’t* want them to sign? Other than the ephemeral Bryant, of course.
He misses a lot of games throughout the season. We need a legit bat day in and day out. I don’t mind a short term deal and I wouldn’t do anything longer than 4 years. So show interest and if he wants too many years or if the price is too much, it’s an easy pass for me.
He hit better in the playoffs last month with the Dodgers
His on base percentage this year was 500 in the post season, compared to .167 in 2018 and .200 and .238 in 2017. I think he did better this year because he didn’t feel there expectations on him – that team was loaded with names. That’s the environment he’d thrive in and that I suspect he’ll seek. He doesn’t want to be the name to lend the team credibility. 2016 was by far his best year hitting with WAR 7.3. Look at his numbers the last 4 years (2.3, 4.4, 0.5, 2.2 (Cubs 2021) and 1.1 (Giants 2021.)
I hope Seattle does not do this. First – he hasn’t been a full time third baseman for years. Go check his stats. He’s more valuable to a team that wants to move him around and probably best in the outfield.
Second – his dad is his number 1 coach still, especially for all things batting. If you want someone to support the team coaches I’m not certain he’s you’re guy.
Third and my biggest reason – Kris isn’t a leader and doesn’t want to be. He’s a veteran, he’ll come in and do his job, but he doesn’t want the responsibility of being the franchise face, doing all the press conferences, answering questions about team mates problems (like Addison Russell issues.) He just wants to come in and play ball, raise kids with his high school sweetheart and have his dad coach him. (I’m sure some will think that’s a hot take but that’s what I’ve seen.) I think he hits best when the pressure is off of him.
Pure speculation: I suspect the Mariners went after Kris at the trade deadline. I think that was one of the trades the team alluded to that didn’t happen. The Cubs tried to send players to teams they wanted to go to. There is a video out there showing Kris getting the news he was being traded. I think he looked happy going to SF. I don’t think he’d want to come here to be the veteran presence or to try to replace Seager. I don’t think he’d want to go to a club that admitted manipulating service time. Save the money, spend it on a few other players. I like Kris, but I think he’d be a bad fit for expectations here.
Gonna be really overpaid. A contract you will regret very soon.
Its been over 4 years since he posted a 5 WAR season and he projects for under 3 WAR next year.
Too much name value, and past MVP performance will be baked into his contract. Hes not that guy anymore.
Good hitter still, but not great anywhere in the field despite the versatility. For me its more useful to have players that excel in certain positions as opposed to a swiss army knife that doesn’t excel at any position, especially as that player ages. Would FAR prefer Semien, who is an elite 2B and even a good SS.
While I think Semien/Bryant project similarly as hittters, I would argue Semien’s swing is actually better for T-Mobile as well.
Pull hitters are fine, its the RH batters with power to left-center and right-center that get really crushed (which is what Bryant is).
Semien has two single seasons of near 7 WAR in the past 3 years, Bryant’s last 3 seasons COMBINED are 8.7 WAR.
You have to see the player for who they are now, and not who they were.
Most of these notes were from Cubs fans that I have spoken with you got to watch him for years. Is that illuminating enough for you?
Well said.
A lot of this wall of text was fan fiction and not much fact.
Uh, Story or Baez (or preferably Semien) would be signing as either 2B or 3B. Just covering SS in case of a Crawford day off or injury
Bryant has played 884 games in 7 seasons. He ranks 32nd out of 2958 [427 that had a qualifying number of PA] in durability over that time frame.
No real issue with durability there.
Shannon Drayer noted several times that Seattle did in fact go after Bryant at the deadline. She also noted that a short-term fit isn’t the same as a long-term signing and they may not necessarily be interested in him now.
There’s really only one reason he doesn’t fit: the commitment–and that doesn’t mean he still isn’t somewhere on their board of targets. But it doesn’t make sense to sign a guy who plays third to a long-term deal with Marte likely just a couple of years out. Bryant’s defense isn’t at the level of Seager’s, and that’s okay, but the same is true of outfield defense where Seattle has plenty of help.
The American League West division winner will be the team that acquires the best new healthy starting pitching via either trade or free agency.
One more top SP and re-sign Cobb and Iglesias and the Angels become instant division title contenders.
Go Mariners. F Houston
They shouldn’t be too aggressive. They have a nice young team that needs to develop and the core needs to be added to.
They had a -51 run differential last year, a lot of luck went in to their success in 2020. Would like to see another year of a rebuild before they get too carried away in FA.
As a lifelong Ms fan that has endured through these past two decades you learn to be patient. I can’t disagree that it wouldn’t be all that bad to see the young talent flourish and come into their own for one more year because there’s too many exciting prospects to root for that Id love to see get regular playing time. Having said that…
The time to act is now, with Oakland taking a step back and Houston in need of some more pitching depth regardless of whether Correa resigns with them or not- look at last postseason and how much they relied on a sophomore and rookie starter through most of the big games to mixed results. Honestly the biggest threat in my mind in the AL West seems to be the Angels if they can get and stay healthy and continue to add onto their starting pitching depth and bullpen. (Todays addition of Syndagard is a good start. Offensively, health is the only thing standing in their way from being one of the best offenses in the bigs in my opinion.
Now, lol… having said that, I’m sick and tired of hearing about their run differential and how luck explains the 90 win season we just witnessed. These guys are young and hungry and have amazing chemistry that’s gelling together like a championship team. Clutch factor does not mean luck factor. It’s incredibly difficult to go in everyday and pull out as many 1 run and extra inning wins as they did. These guys played most of their games with their backs up against a wall and time and time again proved they can come through when it matters most. So imagine 1 or 2 proven bats injected into their lineup knowing also that Kelenic is sure to produce more than his rookie campaign, match that with an emergence from Mr Julio Rodriguez and you have an offense that will easily outperform last years. For those who seem to believe run differential is the only stat worth looking at, remember Clutch factor is also a stat and the Ms led the majors in that category if I’m not mistaken.
And one must not overlook the ever important “FUN” differential, the M’s had in spades last year.
Take away the Astros and we had a positive run differential though. They schooled us this season. Every other game against them was a blowout it seemed.
@Dustyslam Why the heck wait? It’s been 20 years and the opportunity is there to go win now.
Praying for one more Ass-tros Division title maybe?
Trade for a SP, sign a SP. Sign Semien (or Story or Bryant). Rest of the moves will be medium-smaller moves.
Exciting offseason!!
They seem in line to make a big splash in free agency cuz that’s the modern trend: implement a successful rebuilding plan, execute it well, then just as it begins to show some good results lose patience and ruin it through trades and big spending. Didn’t work for the Padres, Phillies or Reds, no reason it can’t not work for Seattle. …here’s hoping they show a little patience.
I think it less a sign of impatience with the rebuild, and more an understanding that now is the time to augment that solid young core. The negative run differential has to be addressed, regardless of the “fun differential.” Don’t break the bank, but be willing to pry open the wallet.
I think now is NOT the time. They’re not there yet. Now is the time for patience and keeping the course, not jumping the gun and moving to the end of the plan before it’s time. Hence, I think it’s impatience.
Taylor Trammell should definitely hold off on extending his lease. He seems likely to go, maybe traded to Reds or As, but certainly traded somewhere.
Taylor Trammell will be the only outfielder Seattle has on the 40 in Tacoma, apart from Julio Rodriguez, who won’t likely be in Tacoma (or Arkansas) long.
He’s not untouchable, but I doubt they’re shopping him.
Lol how can they say it was “roughly a two-year rebuild”? Seriously, how can anyone say that about a team that hasn’t sniffed playoff baseball 20 years?
Cuz rebuilding isn’t synonymous with losing
Is a “sniff” missing by 1 game or?
marinertalk.com/download/file.php?id=4112
Noah Syndergard after his stint with the Angels
Marinerd better spend on big one 1 SP and 1 bat. Imho Semien should be the bat playing 2nd base and move Toro to 3rd (his natural position). We need depth so we don’t end up like the 2021 Angels (no offense but their injuries this year killed them and they didn’t have the depth to fill in for some). Jerry and his staff can work their magic in ways most of us have never thought of. Just some evidence of that: Flexen, Sewald, Sadler, Steckenrider, etc
Would love to see Semien signed and a trade for Chapman to fill our 2B & 3B spots. This would give us one of the best defensive infields in baseball.
Take a shot on Verlander with a 2+ year deal.
Add one more SP on top of Verlander, then fill in the rest of the roster.
@Scoto4 —like your moves. Finish it off with an ace for the next 3 seasons by acquiring Brandon Woodruff from MKE for Jarred Kelenic & George Kirby.
Dipoto already said he’s not trading any of our top prospects. I view Verlander as that ace when he’s fully back. Would love to see someone like Carlos Rodon added as well though. With our young pitching depth, i think we can afford to take a shot on Verlander. Likely none of my preferred players end up here though. Still excited to see what the do though.
Wow. It’s lookin nuthin but up.
and their farm team in Modesto is lookin Nuttin!
It certainly does Fred, you can put your clove back in the closet.
How about that Fred.
It’s great to see your name again, Lee.
It’s been a while since the Disqus comments on Shannon’s blog.
ill believe it when I see it, but I did put them down for Nelson Cruz as one of my predictions.
Marcus Semien makes a ton of sense for the Mariners. Also I can’t imagine an off season where Dipoto isn’t active in the trade market. Castillo or Gray from the Reds are logical trade targets
What would a Chris Taylor deal look like?
Playoff experience.
CF, 2B
Former M
What about Chapman and his GG at 3b, right next to JP?
I wonder if BB would trade one of his top players to Seattle. Chapman has had back to back regression years and his SO are a big concern, but his glovework is spectacular.
Bay Area guy here ( Giants fan) – I do think the hip injury really affected his play. We saw the same thing w Posey – if a player can recover it is usually a two year window
Chapman is a good dude and ballplayer – you would be happy with him if you could get him
I think a potential Graveman reunion can’t be completely dismissed. Sewald was great and all but they were reluctant to use him as the FT closer.
Seattle didn’t want a designated closer, they used their high-leverage arms accordingly.
We[ll probably see more of the same next season, but a reunion with Graveman wouldn’t be a bad idea, especially with Giles possibly needing a couple of months.
For what it’s worth, Dipoto said in the October 13th Wheelhouse podcast that at the end of the 2021 season, Giles was 2 weeks away from being ready to roll. That would certainly bolster the bullpen at the start of the season.
While Munoz has an electric arm, his command seems to short circuit on a regular basis. He’s exciting, but I’d bet on Giles somewhat iffy health, rather than Munoz being consistent enough to reach his potential.
Hey Justabit, good to see you around.
Giles is expected to be a go by spring, my point is that he may need a couple of months to settle in to a high-leverage role. They may be careful with his early usage as well.
The timing of the podcast was funny, because we released an offseason plan just a couple of days before and we had been waiting for updates. Go figure.
Likewise good to see you again, Steve.
Now, as the old poem said,
“All’s right with the world.”
Seattle hasn’t really used a “closer” in the traditional sense for about 2 years or so. They definitely prefer to play to matchups in high leverage situations from the 6th inning on. They did this when the GraveMan was there too.
Semien would be an ideal for both need and leadership. I don’t see the fit of Bryant if they were able to land Semien, he’s able to play multiple positions which is a bonus but he is on the downside of his career and will be expensive. They would also be very RH heavy in the lineup.
Wish list FA:
Semien
Jon Gray
Andrew Chafin
Eddie Rosario(outfield depth with some lefty power)
Dream Trade:
Sandy Alcantara(not likely but why not dream during the hot stove)
I do see them trading for a SP for depth.
Wish list FA:
Semien (Baez or Story plan B)
Verlander or Stroman
Eddie Rosario (yup what the other guy said)(a trade for 1 year CF would be plan B)
Loup
Trade:
Chapman and Bassitt or Montas
So then Toro is utility IF and DH. We can take the risk on Verlander since we should have some SP depth…guessing we hold Sheffield and Dunn as depth SP #6 and #7 plus you’ve got Brash and Kirby both available in May or June for #8 and #9 to leapfrog Sheffield and Dunn who are the early SP depth.
Please no Kris Bryant, all that stuff above about WAR is all you need to know and I’ve been screaming it from my rooftop for a month now…NO KRIS BRYANT. (Unless you sign a 2B and sign Bryant to play some 3B and some OF and Then Torro plays some 3B, back up 2B and some DH….it’s interesting but never gonna happen.
I don’t see Reynolds being a good fit since he would really block Julio and then you’d for sure be letting Haniger go in free agency next year.
No way we sign Nelson Cruz, they aren’t going to block up the DH spot like that especially when they plan to hold Torrens, Murphy and Cal at catcher, so you can have a good cry now if you wanted Cruz, it’s not happening.
Oh and I have no problem trading a top prospect in the right trade. Jerry says he won’t so please cool but I’d even trade Kelenic in a NY minute IF it was the right return….again not happening but really if you could get someone similar to Kelenic at 3B wouldn’t you have to look at that hard?
Sign Semien. 5-years $140 million
Sign Bryant. 5-years $140 million
Sign Rodon. 2-years $40 million
Sign Jake Diekman 2-years $10 million
Trade Noelvi Marte, Kyle Lewis, Alberto Rodriguez and Levi Stoudt for Bryan Reynolds
Trade Emerson Hancock, Brandon Williamson, Abraham Toro, Justin Dunn, Luis Torrens for Luis Castillo
1. Marcus Semien 2B/3B
2. Ty France 1B
3. Bryan Reynolds CF
4. Kris Bryant 3B/OF/DH
5. Mitch Haniger DH/OF
6. Jarred Kelenic LF
7. Julio Rodriguez RF
8. Tom Murphy/Cal Raleigh C
9. JP Crawford SS
Bench: Dylan Moore IF, Jake Fraley OF
1. Luis Castillo
2. Carlos Rodon
3. Marco Gonzales
4. Chris Flexen
5. Logan Gilbert
(Matt Brash/George Kirby on the horizon)
Long Relief: Justus Sheffield
Lefty Specialist/late reliever: Jake Diekman
6th/7th: Casey Sadler, Diego Castillo
8th/9th: Ken Giles, Andres Munoz, Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider
Moves add around $93 million in payroll -$33 million from Seager and Kikuchi = +60 million compared to last year’s payroll.
Semien and Bryant’s contracts expire to be able to afford extensions w. players who have 4-7 years of control like Reynolds, Kelenic, etc…
4 of Seattle’s Top 10 prospect in two trades? Yikes. I honestly do not see any scenario where they trade Marte, he and J Rodriguez are basically un-touchable. Noelvi will potentially be a top 5 overall prospect by the end of next year.
I’d ONLY trade Noelvi in a deal for Reynolds. Reynolds has 4 seasons of control remaining and he’s proven to be as good now as we expect Noelvi to be in a couple more seasons.
No way I trade Noelvi in a trade that doesn’t include Juan Soto or Ronald Acuña. He’s that good of a prospect. I mean we my as well go after Mike Trout at that point.
How are the Mariners going to use every prospect in their top 10?
They have 6x right handed starting pitchers in their top 10 and Logan Gilbert who just graduated from being a prospect. Realistically, the Mariners will only ever bank on 2 or 3 of these guys ever becoming full-time starting pitchers in their rotation meaning you need to move the rest. I think Gilbert, Kirby and Brash stand the best chance and they fit the competitive window that is set to take off in 2022.
As far as Marte is concerned (and other prospects who are as far as 2 years away), I think the M’s need to make some serious moves with their roster to field as competitive a team as possible in 2022. Trading guys like Hancock and Marte will net them the best chance to field a stellar team in 2022 . Both players likely wouldn’t have a big impact on the team until at least 2024 – can the M’s wait that long? I don’t think so.
Kelenic, Raleigh, JRod, Crawford, Gilbert, Kirby, Brash represent the youth movement that is here and ready. You roll with them and add proven ML pieces alongside them.
Eventually the M’s will get to a point where they have to move prospects out of necessity – there won’t be enough roster spots for all available. I just assume trade the prospects who are a few years out while their values are near their highest.
For Sandy Alcantara yes but not Castillo, he runs a little hot and cold for that kind of package.
I could see the M’s with one big trade but not two big farm changing trades. If we are nearing the “window” to win then we will also need to supplement our squad with quality and cheap players we develop. M’s have enough $ to compete but they are not the Yankees/Dodgers/or Red Sox with near unlimited funds.
@UWM’sFan I think the question of “How are the Mariners going to use every prospect in their top 10?” isn’t the best way to word it. You are just assuming that all of those prospects are going to perform at the MLB level, when that’s not how it works. Far more bust than succeed. It’s not really about roster spots… it’s about getting as many top guys as possible and then letting them play to figure out who becomes the star they are cracked up to be.
Once you find those few of the 10 that become your MLB starters, then you can build around that core going forward via trade of those that didn’t quite pan out and free agency. That’s how the Astros and Cubs both created their winning teams.
You asked if the Mariners could wait that long (being 2024)…. and the answer is… yes. DiPoto has built a solid team around young guys with control, with a lot of those guys being called up in the last 1-2 years… like Kelenic and Gilbert making their debuts last year. So yes, they can definitely wait a little bit to make sure they get it right.
What you want to avoid at this point is dealing guys like Hancock, Kirby, Marte, etc before you know what you actually have.
For instance, in your scenario, you gave up Williamson and Hancock for Luis Castillo. Castillo is a lifetime 3.78 FIP pitcher. Gilbert, for reference, had a 3.73 FIP last year. If either Hancock or Williamson can match what Gilbert did (which they easily could), then you gave up a TON just to do that. Not to mention, you also gave years of control of both Toro and Torrens in that deal as well. Like it or not, you need guys with control in order to sustain success… unless you can just buy talent.
Doing what you proposed is how you end up with a situation like the Pirates and DBacks when they gave up what they did to get the likes of Archer and Shelby Miller, where the traded prospects almost immediately outperformed the veteran they were traded for. On the other side, look at how that worked out for the Rays and Braves riding the likes of Meadows and Swanson
Yes, the Mariners outperformed expectations last year. But, 2022 isn’t their only window for contention. Their true window is probably 2023 and 2024, when not only have these prospects been called up, but they have ML experience and you kinda know who is going to make it and who is a bust. Sure, there is a balance to hoarding prospects, but the Mariners aren’t doing that.
Patience is the game at this point, and the Mariners can hold steady for a little bit.
“How are the Mariners going to use every prospect in their top 10? ”
Depth, if not in starting roles.
Seriously, there will be trades. But the plan was never to build up prospect capital in order to move them. The Mariners organization is a far cry from the Yankees and Phillies.
What we see via trade will probably won’t involve so many significant prospects.
Way too early in the process to start trading off top prospects. They’re not there yet, give the rebuild some time to work. The team sniffs success for one season and suddenly you want them in ultra-uber-win-now mode? Patience is a virtue.
Yeah, that’s why the Astros traded 5x top 10 prospects for Ken Giles and Carlos Gomez in 2015 where they finished 87-76.
Cause they were “patient.”
They traded as many as 18 top 10 prospects from 2014-2019 and have appeared in 5 ALCS.
You cannot hoard prospects.
Astros made a lot of mistakes but had so much success that they still ended up on top. First of all, you CAN hoard prospects, if by hoard you mean hold on to them, develop them, then win with them. Secondly, refusing to trade away all of the future assets you’ve been working to acquire on the first whiff of success isn’t hoarding, it’s smart team building. A lot of folks around here don’t seem to get that you develop success with a process of development and graduation. A lot of ant-prospect stuff here today.
Why spend all that prospect capital for Castillo when there are top free agents available. I get that Castillo can be great when he’s “on” but he seems too inconsistent for that kind of investment. Is like to hold some perspective back and build a long term winner.
Idk, maybe ask the Mariners why they were checking in on him?
It wasn’t because they’re thinking of offering Cinci Luis Torrens and a bunch of 15-30 ranked prospects.
They know what Cinci would likely be asking for Castillo and appear quite interested – it’s not going to be the prospect capital you’re interested in moving.
And what if Seattle has the financial flexibility to absorb a bad contract so that the return wouldn’t cost as much in prospect capital?
Every team looking to buy checks in with teams selling. Seattle checking in with Cincinnati doesn’t mean they’re prepared or willing to cough up elite prospects.
This is how you become the 2018 mariners and win 90 games with a big payroll and aging players. Rodon is done. Wait a min, is this Jack Z?
Interesting. I’m wondering how a roster built around 26 year old Bryan Reynolds, 22 year old Jarred Kelenic, 21 year old Julio Rodriguez, 24 year old Logan Gilbert, 27 year old JP Crawford, , 24 year old Cal Raleigh, 23 year old George Kirby and 23 year old Matt Brash is “aging.”
5 years for Semien and Bryant is going to be the going contract length… is that what you’re referring to?
And just in case you think age is the issue, 8 of the 10 oldest rosters in baseball this year made the playoffs.
Not to mention that if the Mariners offload Marte, Hancock, Williamson and Stoudt – they still have an extremely loaded farm.
For all of those speculating over trades involving Noelvi Marte, keep in mind that Jerry Dipoto has been very transparent and he was clear that the elite prospects are off-limits. You can argue that it’s posturing, but if he’s following LAD’s playbook (with some twists of his own)–and it appears he is–there’s little reason to doubt him. In fact, at the deadline in 2018 he had plenty of opportunities to move his few elite prospects (White-Rodriguez-Lewis) to get better, yet he declined. He covets internal, elite talent. It’s the mid-tier guys that are likely more available (Williamson/Stoudt/Campbell/etc.), but I wouldn’t bet on too many prospects getting dealt.
Further, Bryant is a guy that fits better in the short-term than the long-term, but will command a long-term deal. Reynolds…Pittsburgh has their left side of the infield for the future. Obviously acquiring elite talent anywhere is attractive, but if they move Reynolds, the preference would probably be outfield and/or pitching prospects. Seattle isn’t giving up Julio and though Hancock might get a conversation started, Pittsburgh would probably want a heck of a lot more–probably more than Seattle would be willing to sacrifice. Really hard to see a deal getting done between the two clubs.
If Seattle signs an outfielder via free agency, someone who can handle center respectably, such as Canha, would make a lot more sense than another corner outfielder that shouldn’t play the field full-time. The DH is going to be rotated. We know that, because Jerry has already discussed it, and that appears likely to involve Lewis, Torrens, and Haniger. Adding to that rotation is highly unlikely. Never say never, someone like Conforto or Schwarber may be plan E or F, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Seattle’s LF & RF defense ranked bottom 5. Center field….dead last. Outfield defense has to be a significant consideration this offseason.
Agreed…. again… amazingly enough.
Dipoto has been fairly vocal about who he wants / plans on keeping… and despite a few puzzling moves to us know-nothings over his Seattle tenure, he has pretty much done what he said.
Thus given the poor OF defense and questionable at best offense, I truly question why many believe that Fraley, Trammel, Moore, and others have a place on this roster in 2022. Haniger in the OF for 100+ games and Kelenic for 140+ games will already be a below average defense, and probably a below average OF period… regardless of who else are the 3rd, 4th and 5th guys. yes, Julio will definitely help, but if the 2022 playoffs are the goal… Julio playing 100+ games should not be Plan A, B or C. You have to expect a learning curve. Very few are Soto who dominate from the start at the MLB level.
Therefore, a short term defensive minded CF should be a priority… and it probably is. Getting a CF superstar would also work obviously… but as we have heard, no one is letting those go even somewhat reasonably.
Stevil… please remind us again where your website /plan can be found, because I am beginning to have a hard time believing adding 2 bats to the infield, a usable CF and a couple starting pitchers can actually get the M’s to 95 wins in 2022.
hardballviahardcore.blogspot.com/
I think if they net a true center fielder, it will have to be via trade. We discuss Ketel Marte (prematurely, as the entire piece came out intentionally early), but Kiermaier would make plenty of sense, as would another name we didn’t get into, Tyrone Taylor.
With the surprise of Melvin heading to SD and Oakland looking to pull a ‘Major League’ in an attempt to move to Vegas, perhaps Laureano is a possibility as well.
I agree with 99.9% of everything you said. The only thing I would like to acknowledge is that Williamson should be in the Top tier of prospects. Left handed starters are at an all time premium at the moment. When you’ve got a lefty who’s pumping 95 mph with “Good” command of all his secondary pitches, you hold onto him, or he’s going for a lot higher price than you’re typical pitching prospect.
I wouldn’t have a problem with them keeping Williamson. I’m partial to LHPs myself, but that wasn’t a short list of who I would trade, it’s who I think Seattle would be willing to deal.
Two immaculate innings last year. Pretty impressive. There’s an argument for him being in the top tier, but I there were some hiccups last year and he didn’t go deep very often.
I hope we get to see him pitch in Seattle, rather than some other team. That being said, there’s a very short list of players in the Majors that I would trade him for. Bryan Reynolds would be on that list. He’s one of the most if not rarest of all baseball players. A switch hitting CF with annual All-Star potential. Was “Mickey” the most recent one?
It’d be hard for me to part with Williamson, but I’d be willing to bite the bullet for the right trade.
@UWM let someone else overpay for Bryant.
Mariner fans have been told many times how “aggressive” the team is going to be in free agency only to produce underwhelming results. I’m in the “I will believe it when I see it” camp. Been a fan since the 80s and can’t tell you how many times this organization has let me down on and off the field…hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
@Pdub Now THAT’S a long term Mariners fan quote. Ouch. Always hoping for better though, aren’t we?
I would love Matt Olsen. He would improve 2 positions with one trade. 1B and 3B. Olsen at 1B and move France to 3B, sign Simeon and play him at 2B and use Toro as a super utility guy.
I wonder if the A’s would consider this…
A’s get
LHP Brandon Williamson
OF Starlin Aguilar
1B Evan White
OF Taylor Tremmell
Mariners get
1B Matt Olsen
SP Sean Maniea
The A’s would get a high caliber pitching prospect in Williamson, a high upside lotto ticket in Aguilar, a 1B to replace Olsen in White, who still has some development left to do and still has some upside, and has already won a GG, and a high upside OF a year removed from top 100 prospect status in Trammell. The Mariners finally get a bonified 1B who has won multiple GG, and a mid rotation starter to add some much needed depth to that rotation. We’d also be improving 3B by moving France across the diamond.
That’s a great trade proposal. But the Ms would likely have to eat most, if not all of White’s contract for a team trying to shed payroll to roll that dice IMO
If I’m the Mariners I do this deal in a heartbeat, I’d also eat most of Whites contract, but only if I can get the A’s to toss in a relief pitching or catching prospect as well for some depth. Hell I may even take on a bad contract as opposed to eating Whites deal if said bad contract can be a useful player in 2022.
This would be great for the M’s but a little light on the return for the A’s, probably need to swap DeLoach for Tremmell. Isn’t Aguilar a SS who converted to 3B?
I thought Aguilar was an OF, may be thinking of Gabriel Gonzalez.
Ok Ms fans I need some advice. I’m not superstitious, but to quote Michael Scott I’m a little stitious. I have a 2001 ALCS commemorative baseball I’ve kept proudly on my mantle the last 20 years. Is it time to put that in storage just to inform the baseball gods that us Ms fans aren’t holding onto the last time they were in the playoffs?
I like the Mariners side of that deal. Combine it with a Semien signing and you have the makings of a team that doesn’t have to win 1-run games anymore.
Seattle has their first baseman. In fact, they already told France he would be their first baseman (not White).
That said, it’s Oakland that would probably say ‘no’.
It’s Matt Olsen though. If we were to get him France would have to move to 3B. Olsen is one of if not the best defensive 1B in baseball, it would be a disservice to the club to move Olsen to 3B unless we feel he can be a GG 3B too.
France WAS the best defensive first baseman in baseball last season, never mind the GG farce.
I’m a fan of Olson. But Chapman would make a lot more sense for Seattle. The only two certainties they had in the infield last season were 1B and SS. Tinkering with that just isn’t necessary, nor likely.
Well Olsen is better than Chapman, and Chapman is coming off a down year. I’d much rather have Olsen. Pretty sure he can move to 3B. Not a bad problem to have.
Dude, it’s Olson, with an ‘o’, and Seattle’s infield holes are at 3B and 2B. Making a lateral move that forces France into a position where he’s not as valuable doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Keep in mind, they could have committed France to 2B last year (before acquiring Toro). They prefer him at first, where he gelled.
I don’t see how this is a lateral move at all. Getting OlsOn would improve 1B AND 3B. France is familiar with 3B and can easily play there if need be.
I perfectly understand what you’re suggesting, I just don’t believe they want France anywhere other than at 1B.
We haven’t heard much about it, but defense is probably going to be a focus. Losing Seager stings defensively. The outfield was one of the worst in baseball. Moving France to third doesn’t help with that.
Never say never, but I wouldn’t bet on Olson being acquired. Chapman or Laureano, or even Kemp, are far more likely Oakland targets.
Easy to Olson going to NY or Boston once Rizzo’s off the board.
You don’t see it as a lateral move because you’re not thinking defensively.
It’s one thing filling in at 3B here and there, it’s another to start there regularly.
San Diego didn’t want him at 3B, either.
Agreed. Chapman would certainly cost less than Olson would as far as prospects are concerned. By the time Chapman is a free agent, Noelvi Marte will be knocking on the door for the Hot Corner to take over command.
I like Olson, a lot, and had proposed a trade for him many times, up until Dipoto’s comments about France being the first baseman going forward in 2022. He did really well over there. And acquiring a couple of players like Chapman and Semien would give Seattle a potential gold glover at every single infield position. Now whats not to love about that? I know Chapman’s batting average is a question, but I look at OPS even more. Matt has a career OPS of .808 and 120 +OPS coming off of a major hip injury. It takes time to rehab from something like that. He also has 2 years of control remaining which fits our timline for Noelvi Marte almost too perfectly.
The A’s also have 3 really good SP’s that would look good on a Seattle staff. We’ve made trades with A’s before, the most recent being Ryan Healy for Emilio Pagan and change, as well as Yonder Alonso for Boog Powell. So an inter-division trade is not out of the realm of possibilities.
I’m not saying that going after Ketel Marte is a bad thing, but I’d rather have Michael Conforto’s left bat for money and a loss of pick. He’s a local kid from the Seattle area that has been an OPS monster coming off of a down year due to a thigh injury. He wants Springer money, and that’s fine by me. He’s a really good defender, but more suitable in a corner position. I’m ok with having Kelenic take his hard knocks in CF, and it sounds like Dipoto is too, since he mentioned so in one of his latest presser.
Finally re-sign Tyler Anderson for the 5th spot, and you have yourselves a decent rotation. He could easily move to the bullpen as a left handed specialist and become a viable spot starter when either George Kirby or Matt Brash are ready, or should there be an injury. If not, the M’s could always target lefties like Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup. And count me in on the Kendall Graveman train. I’d love to see him back in this locker room.
George Kirby and Matt Brash might just be the Mariners best chances of acquiring a True Ace if there ever was. I really hope we hang onto to both. Not all prospects are going to prosper, but eventually one of them will. The more you have, the better you’re chances are of hitting on one. So joard away Dipoto.
What’s funny, at least for me, is that some of my favorite LHHs simply don’t fit Seattle’s needs perfectly. Conforto, Schwarber, Olson, Freeman…if only they were center fielders or second & third baseman. Though having too much talent at one position isn’t a bad thing, I just have a hard time believing that Seattle’s going to add at the OF corners or 1B, unless it’s someone capable of CF (or other positions). Suzuki is real interesting because they could plug him in anywhere in the outfield and they would probably have him work a little with Perry Hill to see if he can play passable defense in the infield. Suzuki’s a RHH, but like Canha, he would thicken the depth.
We’ve discussed the issue of lost power with Seager’s departure before, but it’s not just Ketel Marte or bust. Eduardo Escobar would bridge the gap just as nicely at 3B as Chapman and give Seattle pop from both sides of the plate. Joey Wendle could be also be a possibility at 3B and Tyler Naquin could be of interest as a short-term option for CF,
I would be a little surprised if a LHH or switch-hitter wasn’t brought in, but it’s not an absolute must-have for Seattle. Toronto was even more RHH-heavy than Seattle currently projects to be and their offense was arguably the best in baseball last year. Seattle could also utilize their bench for specific matchups with Fraley and hopefully Toro in reserve. They have a trio of interesting outfielders on the farm that are 2 years out (or less) in Rodriguez (Alberto), DeLoach, and Marlowe, all of whom are LHHs (then there’s Trammell, who finished the AAA season on a positive note), so even if Fraley falls out of favor, they’ll have some internal alternatives.
They absolutely need two starting pitchers. I’d like to see someone who generates Ks, such as Robbie Ray. But there’s value in GB pitches and inning-eaters, such as Anderson. Marcus Stroman would fit nicely as well. They may not end up with a true ace, and if they do, it very well could be Brash or Kirby, or Hancock. But they can probably get away without having a Scherzer, Burnes, etc., as long as they have shut-down relievers as they did last season.
I don’t care who we get. As long as I see susuki. Dude will be a better offer since threat than othani. Mark my words. Mariners don’t make us regret it again. Offer him the stars. We almost had shohai. Let’s not make that mistake again
I’m with you on Suzuki.
I mean, there’s a lot of hype for the M’s but I’m not sold they’re the real deal after a negative run differential season. That being said, I hope they are active and overcome the Astros this year.
Is there an advanced stat out there that combines run differential with clutch factor and comes up with a value that offsets this run differential bias? Remember back in 2018 the Ms won 89 games with a horrible run differential as well, they also had a closer who arguably had the most dominant season of any closer based on legitimate stats and number of saves. Clutch factor absolutely offsets run differential to a high extent in certain cases and luck has very little to do with it, luck is a word that is used when you don’t know how to explain why something happens or goes the way it does, this is baseball! We lean on stats across all facets of the game and any Ms fan who watched their 1995 season, 2001 season, 2018 season and 2021 season can attest to that.
The Mariners definitely have some holes to fill, but in my opinion, they need more lefty bats, especially some with some pop.
1. I’d start by going and getting Chris Paddack. His FIP was 3.78 and has a 9.1 KK/9… he could bounce back, and isn’t necessary in the Padres rotation..
2. Pay up and get Corey Seager to play 3B.
3. Trade for Ketel Marte and potentially Zac Gallen. Make Marte your new every day 2B to pair with Crawford.
IF: Seager, Crawford, Marte, and France.
OF: Kelenic, Haniger, and whoever is left after trades between Lewis, Trammell, Fraley, and Moore until the calling up of JRod.
Rotation: Gallen, Gonzales, Flexen, Paddack, and whoever is left after trades between Gilbert, Sheffield, Hancock, Kirby, etc.
More importantly, this balances out the lineup a little. Righties like France, Moore, Haniger, the catchers, Lewis, and the eventual JRod are balanced out with Corey Seager, the switch-hitting Marte and Toro, Kelenic, and Crawford
Hard no on Correa. Stay away. If Seager doesn’t work out, maybe the same idea with Story (to play 3B). Bryant…. maybe. Chris Taylor and Schwarber (as a DH) could help too.
I’ve been advocating for Marte reunion since the break, but the attraction has to do with his ability to play CF as well as 2B. He could start the season in center and eventually move to 2B if they feel Julio can handle the middle at some point.
But another name fans should be paying attention to is Escobar. He offers solid defense at both 3B and 2B, and offers power from both sides of the plate. He wouldn’t require a long-term deal, either, so he could bridge the gap to Noelvi’s debut pretty well.
Yep, totally agree on Marte with the CF aspect too. But, I think the combination of him and Gallen are the only ones I focus on a trade for of the big names. Chapman is good defensively, but we don’t need another .220 hitting righty in the lineup.
My basic point is what you were getting at… make maybe one bigger trade, but otherwise, use the money on free agency to fill the holes and rely on our young talent developing and coming up. Escobar would be a good, Corey Seager in my opinion would be awesome.
Really, I was wanting the Mariners to give up whatever to get Austin Riley a couple years ago too back when he was hitting .200 and the Mariners were talking about sending Seager and Haniger to them. He would have been an awesome fit in our lineup, which is easier to say now after watching him since too.
Yeah, but the only reason I think Marte is a feasible trade acquisition is because of Arizona’s likely motivation to move Bumgarner. Seattle could afford to eat the 60m remaining and move him to the bullpen if necessary (and he still handles LHHs well, so there’s that).
We’ve seen Arizona take good/solid, but non-elite, prospects in the returns for Goldy and Greinke, so perhaps something could get done if Seattle were to absorb most or all of Bumgarner’s salary. They’d still have to cough up talent, but certainly shouldn’t need to include Julio, Marte, or Kirby.
You don’t give prospects like Scott Kingery and Evan White extensions before playing a major league game.
As it stands, the M’s have plenty of outfielders but not really a true CF. I think the best thing would be to find a third team to get with us and the Pirates. Haniger (my favorite Mariner) is our best veteran trade chip. I’d like to use Haniger to spring Bryan Reynolds without giving up either Julio or Noelvi. The players he could draw from another team might make that possible if the Pirates have a say. Sentiment aside, Hanny is likely gone next year anyway. There are just too many talented players and not enough spots for them. Also, all the other guys are cheaper.
Haniger does not fit Pittsburgh’s time line. Why would they trade a player in Reynolds with 4 years worth of control for a veteran with a year left on an expiring contract? Pittsburgh is looking for prospects, which is why they asked for Julio Rodriguez. The Pirates are years away from competing.
Umm, @Benjamin, you did see the thing about the third team, right? Of course the Pirates don’t need Haniger. Haniger brings prospects from team three to offset the prospects the M’s need to give. Hopefully team threes prospects, combined with some Mariner prospects are enough to secure Reynolds without giving up Noelvi (knowing Julio is totally off the table).
If no team three is found, I’d still support sending Noelvi for Reynolds, I’d just hate having to do it.
I missed that part about a third team. However, I find it difficult to see Seattle trading away the very foundation of which its trying to build upon. Why would Seattle not want to re-sign Mitch Haniger? He loves it here, and Jerry has stated that the organization looks for players like Mitch. If they traded him, they’d have to look again for another player like that. I think Haniger re-signs by next offseason.
I’d hate to trade away Noelvi Marte for Reynolds when we could just spend money for an OF such as Starling Marte or Michael Conforto, and keep Noelvi Marte in our system.
I know, I love Haniger but what do you do with him long term? Next year is his age 31 season. If you extend him your getting his 32-35 seasons or so and you’re paying a premium. He’s already a bit of a defensive liability and that’s not likely to improve. Also, he’s a RH bat and the team is chock-full of those.
Then you look at the competition already in the system – Julio, Lewis, Kelenic, DeLoach,Trammell, Fraley – not really a true CF in the bunch. So, you have a bunch of talented players, plus Haniger all in a logjam for two positions, plus DH.
It’s hard and seems cold-blooded but I think that now’s the time to move him while the value is high.
Why not Starling Marte or Michael Conforto? Marte is already 34. He’s by far the best free agent CF out there so he’ll get both years and salary. As good as he is, his game has built around speed. I’m not sure that lasts much longer. If, in a year or two, he’s no longer a quality CF, you’ve just compounded your corner outfield problem with a declining, yet expensive player. Think Griffey’s last two years in Seattle except that Marte was never the power threat that Junior was.
Was Conforto ever really a CF? I mean I know he played some there but was he really a CF? Kelenic played some CF for the Mariners this season but was he really a CF? I think no is probably the correct answer for both guys. So, you’ve got a guy coming off a season ending injury, looking for a big money deal. You’re not sure if he’s really ready and you’re going to compromise your already substandard defense by playing a guy (Conforto) out of position in order to keep a player who already plays substandard defense (Haniger). Although I like Conforto as a player and it’d be cool to bring the hometown guy back to Seattle, it just doesn’t seem like the best plan.
I’m absolutely rolling the dice with M. Conforto 100%. I’m willing to watch Kelenic in CF with the hope that Lewis or Rodriguez ever prosper there. Michael Conforto is an OPS monster and a left handed bat that costs you nothing but money. Hes my dark horse favorite this year that no one is really talking about.
Also, I’d still support trading Haniger this off-season vs letting him go for nothing next season.
My off-season:
Trade for Reynolds using Haniger if possible.
Sign Semien, Yon Gomes, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Schwarber and either Jonathan Villar or Eduardo Escobar for offense and two starters, either Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman as a number one and one of Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Steven Matz or Jon Gray. Just make it one righty and one southpaw. Also, Aaron Loup for the pen.
After his latest injury, I’m not sure we can count on Kyle Lewis to continue in CF. Reynolds plays legit defense and is a switch hitter who hits for average and power and could be a great leadoff hitter. Lewis can be optioned down to Tacoma for rehab and to rebuild his value.
Semien can take his gold glove self out to 2B. He’s a team leader type veteran whose power/average bat will play nicely in the three hole.
Gomes will provide a little more consistent offense behind the dish, allowing Raleigh to keep learning and improving while not having to carry the position.
Suzuki provides a younger high floor, higher ceiling outfield option who can hold RF until Julio is ready and appears to have the talent to credibly fill in anywhere in the outfield to keep everyone rested or take over as an injury replacement.
Schwarber’s left handed bat will primarily provide balance to the lineup and fill the DH slot with the ability to rotate occasionally into an outfield corner.
Villar and Escobar are both switch-hitters who can provide competition with Toro to start at 3B but can play competently anywhere in the infield as quality depth. Although neither provides the offense of a Kris Bryant or the defense of a Matt Chapman they are both solid both ways, much cheaper and more likely to play on shorter deals.
The pitching kind of speaks for itself. The Mariners need a higher-end front of the rotation to hold the fort until the prospects kick the door down. No matter who we bring in, young guys will get chances because five starters is never enough.
Finally, Loup is the high-leverage lefty that makes a strong bullpen more versatile and more dominant.
Reynolds wasn’t much better in CF than Kelenic was. Slightly, but they’re UZR’s are practically identical I believe.
We should give the Twins a call and see what the price tag on Buxton is.
Where do the need to improve. Lets start with the catching Murphy, Raleigh, tantum get a passable C grade. I would like to see some improvement here but then this may not be in the works. Murphy did nothing to distinguish himself they must like the way he handles the pitching my greatest fear was if he had to make a play at the plate have you ever seen so many dropsy’s? That’s as nice as i’m going to be on the subject.. Of course his batting av. was less then desirable but then we have seen better from him so there is that. If they did move him you know you would miss his crazy faces.
Raleigh on the other hand is still a work in progress how would you separate him from other rookies? Say Kelenic promising but then not ready, personally I would prefer to send him down and bring in a accomplished catcher does this seem likely though? You could also look for a trade either or.