In addition to their one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez, the Red Sox have also made a multi-year contract offer to the free-agent lefty, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said earlier this week that there was mutual interest in a longer-term deal between the two parties (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).
Proposed terms aren’t clear at this point, but the fact that the Sox are trying to retain Rodriguez on a multi-year pact is nevertheless of some note. We’ve seen players accept a qualifying offer and still work out a subsequent extension in the past — Jose Abreu and the White Sox, for instance — but interest in Rodriguez figures to be robust. The fact that the Sox are looking at multi-year arrangements is at least a sign of a healthy market. Rodriguez has already been loosely linked to the Angels, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets this morning that the Tigers have showed some “early interest” as well.
The 28-year-old Rodriguez was viewed by some as a surprise recipient of the qualifying offer on the heels of a 4.74 ERA this season. Beyond that mark, however, everything in the lefty’s profile looks quite appealing. Rodrgiuez posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (27.4%) and walk rate (7.0%) while effectively tying career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (11.7%), called-strike rate (16.4%) and opponents’ chase rate (33.7%).
Rodriguez was also among the very best in baseball in terms of limiting hard contact (90th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile hard-hit rate) and finished the season on a rather strong note. The lefty posted a 3.71 ERA and 2.89 FIP following the All-Star break, including a 2.11 ERA in his final four starts of the season. Rodriguez was pulled early in his Game 1 ALDS date with the Rays after allowing a pair of runs in 1 2/3 innings, but he came back strong in his next two starts, allowing just eight hits and punching out 13 with no walks over the course of 11 innings. In all, over Rodriguez’s past three healthy regular seasons, he carries a 4.11 ERA, 3.63 FIP and 3.95 SIERA in just shy of 500 innings.
“Healthy” seasons is a key distinction, of course. The 2020 season was completely lost for Rodriguez when he developed myocarditis in the wake of a positive Covid-19 diagnosis. Rodriguez detailed the ordeal to James Wagner of the New York Times back in May, explaining that he couldn’t even get through 10 pitches in a bullpen session at one point before debilitating exhaustion overtook him. He was eventually barred from virtually any physical activity for three months, with even minor tasks like walking his dog and going to the supermarket off the table.
Given that context, it’s somewhat remarkable that Rodriguez was able to make it back for a full slate of 32 games in 2021 (including a lone, one-inning relief stint late in his final appearance). He tallied 157 2/3 innings during the regular season and tacked on another 12 2/3 in the postseason for a total of 35 games pitched. The Sox were seemingly mindful of his per-start workload, as he averaged just north of five frames per outing — a far cry from the six innings he averaged in 2019. Still, the overall workload is quite encouraging, given where Rodriguez was a year ago at this time.
All of that will be weighed by teams as they determine how aggressively to pursue Rodriguez, as will the fact that he’s tied to draft compensation by virtue of that aforementioned qualifying offer. Rodriguez has until Nov. 17 to determine whether to accept or reject that one-year, $18.4MM offer.
I hope it’s a good offer, and I hope Eddie takes it
If the Red Sox want to throw money at a man who has a 6.35 career postseason ERA and who can’t pitch against the Rays (5.21 ERA regular/5.40 ERA postseason) or Astros (8.53 ERA regular/6.43 ERA postseason), I endorse this terrible plan.
‘Except for the 4.74 ERA, everything else in the lefty’s profile looks quite appealing’….that’s like saying except for the gaping bleeding hole in your head, the rest of the body is okay!
All of the other “appealing” analytics are stated in a league where hitters either hit a home run or strike out on average..swinging from their heels…..wouldn’t put to much stock in a strikeout rate when the league on average goes from 20% at best, to 30% at worst….batters are routinely helping pitchers rack up insane strikeout rates in MLB these days!
They give more and more credit to pitchers for strikeouts but it’s seemingly okay for hitters to strikeout more and more.
rocky7 – You need to actually go to his numbers. They stink across the board for anyone making more than $5M a year!!
ERA 4.74 in 2021 is not far from his career (6 years) ERA of 4.16
WHIP 1.389 in 2021 is not far from his career WHiP of 1.313
I have no idea what metrics you are looking at but these are the two most key and telling stats to review a SP.
Add to that he’ll be 29 and is already starting to decline since he is past his prime year of 27. Throw in shaky health, inconsistency throughout EVERY season he’s pitched and you have a very, very mediocre pitcher who is being offered big money when Bloom is all about making low cost deals.
Pray someone else offers him more so Boston can free up money to invest in quality players not mediocre players.
Assuming doctors have cleared him on the heart issue, I’m more concerned with the knee as he ages. That said, I’d prefer Houck and Whitlock at the back of the pen. With that in mind, ER is an inning eater at worst and a number 2 at best.
Dewey – If COVID doesn’t bite him in the hind quarters or his knee then your assessment of him being an innings eater is fair. Also, based on 6 years of data about half the time while eating innings he’ll give the team a shot at winning if they can score over 3 runs. That said, I can’t figure out how that could possibly translate to $18.4M a year contract for E-Rod. There has to be cheaper innings eaters.
I like Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta and adding another SP or two for depth is a good idea. Spending $18.4M should slot the pitcher ahead of Eovaldi and E-Rod would slot after Pivetta based on 2021 numbers and after Houck if you go by career numbers. That’s my issue with the contract for E-Rod. It’s a massive over-pay when money is still tight thanks to paying LAD $16M on the Price dump.
I think bang for the buck is important when the CAP is being enforced by ownership. Right now being at $191.65M instead of $173.25M assuming E-Rod takes the QO significantly impacts the level of improvement that can be gained with the additional money from Peddy’s contract dropping off the books. Bang for the buck. I’m not seeing it and that angers me since Benny at $6.6M was considered expensive yet his numbers were no less at his position than E-Rod’s are at his position. None of this makes financial sense.
See my post above KD. The QO should lowered offers from others and reduce the AAV in a multi year deal. Let’s see this play out.
Sale and Price were both garbage in the postseason as well so should we cut Sale? You’re seriously calculating his all time stats vs those two specific teams? I realize 38 games are played vs them but chances are 25+ of his starts will come vs other teams lol. He’s 28, a lefty and his xFIP FIP and xERA are all well below 3.50 abd those are more accurate barometers of how he pitched not era.
The name holds up
ERod had one tough game this post-season, the other two were excellent. You need to watch the games, not just read the Baseball Reference page.
Also ERod played Yankees this postseason. Conveniently you left them out of the equation. Aren’t they the toughest division rival? Vs. Yankees 8-6 3.72 ERA, 2.31 k/bb.
dennyd = watching games versus using Baseball Reference stats is an insane suggestion. It puts emotion into the decision instead of facts. Your perspective as a fan is fine but to determine good deals, you must use facts not feelings.
SIX full years of inconsistency from a journeyman starting pitcher isn’t worth anything close to a QO or anything over $8M a year. History with the Yankees is a plus but the Yankees aren’t the future threat in the division and if they do become the future threat it won’t be with the hitters he did well against.
You said it all with his two outings were excellent and one wasn’t. Had there been four it would have been two and two which is EXACTLY why he isn’t worth more than $8M a year. You can’t WATCH a good game and extrapolate that performance to a career. The numbers show that for EVERY good game he has a bad game during a season. YES, six years of being a split performance guy screams mediocrity with upside if he can ever eliminate the bad outings or simply reduce them significantly. After SIX YEARS he hasn’t figured it out so it’s like hoping Devers will become an adequate fielder some day. It’s not going to happen so he should be moved to DH.
E-Rod is a waste of money who should have been passed on last year!!
KD. Why watch and why play the games? Why not just buy Strat-o-matic which I loved in college? I guess games don’t need to be played and we can use computers and video to simulate games. The game has taken a beating since Bill James became a guru. Anyone remember his Temperature Gauge? I think it was 2011 when it nearly ruined Sox broadcasts.
Dewey – Core stats like batting average, fielding percentage and runs produced have been a key part of the game for over 100 years. Watching the game is great but emotions get tied up in the performances and their timing. E-Rod has an outstanding game and people remember it. He gets bombed and people push that to the back of their memory if they like him.
I simply look at the numbers knowing what I’ve seen from E-Rod and come to conclusions. I feel confident in my evaluation of E-Rod because John Smoltz said exactly what I think about E-Rod in one of the broadcasts. He loves his stuff but he can’t figure out how it doesn’t translate to better results. He’s right the results are bad but his stuff looks good. Inconsistency was pointed out by John. His inability to locate consistently throughout a game or a season. It’s that lack of continuity in his focus that takes his great stuff to mediocre results.
I’m not using modern metrics to evaluate him, I’m using the same stats that were used to evaluate me nearly 50 years ago. ERA and WHIP are not end all be all stats but they are great barometers of performance during a season or career. If E-ROD didn’t have an ERA over 4.00 I could support him more. If he didn’t have a horrendous WHiP then I could support him more. But the facts are the facts and as good as he looks, he can’t consistently perform at his peak level. I liken him to Stanton in hitting. When he’s hot you want him and when he’s not you want to unload him. Would I ever endorse paying Stanton big bucks? Heck no. Same for E-Rod.
I hope it’s 3 for $45 mil, and if he doesn’t take I’m looking forward to having him pitch against the Redsox!
I think 3/45 ($15m Aav)is too low… maybe a 3/51 ($17m Aav), but he probably wants and gets a 4th year guarantee. 4/$65-68m is my guess.
I think a 4 year with a 5th vesting option would be good, so long as the value on the 4th/5th years goes down.
I like 3/51 OK, 4/64 better, and 5/72 the best. Just front load it somewhat and make the 5th yar an option that vests with… I dunno, a 2-3m buyout.
Rodriguez reminds me of Jon Lester. Let’s hope the Sox offer to Rodriguez is not in the same low-ball-spirit as their attempt to sign Lester long term.
Rodriguez reminds you of Lester? now that’s the funniest comment ever…and they had no intention on resigning Lester that’s why they low balled him and then later traded him…Rodriguez is no Lester
Country, I disagree. Appreciate you explaining the Lester scenario, too, as if that was an unknown. When Lester pitches his best he throws to both sides of the plate and he’s aggressive. When Rodriguez pitches his best he throws to both sides of the plate and he’s aggressive. In closing, “Rodriguez reminds me of Jon Lester.” No further questions, your Honour.
30 Parks – For me Lester and E-Rod can’t be compared.
Lester had good years and E-Rod hasn’t. E-Rod, when he’s right, looks better to me than Lester ever did but that doesn’t happen often enough. Lester was far more consistent.
Lester was an excellent pitcher who went downhill whereas E-Rod is a consistently mediocre pitcher with very little year to year variance.
E-Rod is closer to Perez in performance than Lester. Lester had good years and Perez and E-Rod have never had good years. Brian Kenny throws out the 19 win season since the Red Sox run support took a very mediocre pitcher and allowed him to get 19 wins despite his mediocre pitching. Give Sale the run support E-Rod has received in Boston and he’d have two or three Cy Young awards by now.
ERod should be so fortunate to have Lester’s career. That said, I thought Boston’s offer then was reasonable. I still do so I guess I’m still wrong on that one
Again, I disagree. Perez is the definition of average and there’s far more upside in Rodriguez. “Never” had a good year is a tough evaluation, KD, both 2018 & 2019 were solid years from Rodriguez. He missed a full season of progress in 2020 – that’s no small detail. I see similar approaches in he & Lester. Not everything is captured in tedious analytics.
Dewey – Thank you for pointing out that E-ROD after 6 years of mediocrity will not ever compare favorably to Lester. Lester began his career with ERA+ values above 124 once he became a regular starter. That lasted 4 years then he had an off year and followed it with 8 above league average years including 3 all=star appearances and 3 times in the top 10 in CY voting. E-ROD does NOT have that in his future.
Lester and E-Rod started their careers at 22. E-Rod just completed his 28 year old season.
Lester by the end of his 28 year old season had the following stats:
85 wins 48 losses in 188 starts with an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.22
E-Rod by the end of his 28 year old season has:
64 wins 39 losses in 153 starts with an ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 1.31
Looking at the stats in detail the gap between Lester and E-Rod is even bigger than I thought!! I’m one of the believers that Lester’s offer and Lester’s desired salary should have been split in half and agreed to much like Mookie should have been offered something half way between what he wanted and what Boston offered. Keeping legends in house makes sense to me. E-Rod is far from a legend. Benny was more of a Boston potential legend than E-Rod..
30 Parks – I’m fine with you thinking a 3.80 ERA and 1.313 WHIP is good.
It’s not for me. It’s the numbers I expect from a #5 SP.
Also, solid years should NOT get you $18.4M it should get you something below $10M. Check others with SOLID years like E-Rod. That’s what they are making. Thus, this is a huge over-pay in my book. Do the comparisons. You’ll see. E-Rod’s numbers are mediocre or league average. Not even as good as Benny’s were as a LF. That’s how grossly over paid E-Rod will be since Benny got sent packing with better numbers and only a $6.6M salary. It’s a travesty. It’s also reflective of the current bias in the Red Sox organization. A white E-Rod or a black E-Rod wouldn’t be offered this type of money. Racism rears it’s ugly head yet again in the Boston Red Sox organization.
Reject it. Test the market.
He seems like the “major upgrade” the Angels are talking about to me.
As a Red Sox fan I’d like to have him back, but he’s not an $18.9 million pitcher, but he’s a solid number 4 imo
Seems like a durable, consistent #3 pitcher on a very good staff or #2 on an okay staff. Not exceptional, just consistent. Most teams would do well to have him. I can easily see 4-5 years at $15 mill. AAV.
That’s the price range I was thinking about, maybe with some escalators, but I think 15 million a year would be fair for him, granted I’m a bartender not a general manager
Michael – Don’t sell yourself short for being a bartender. Reviewing Bloom’s moves to date maybe a bartender would have been a better way to go!!
Think about the fact that only 18 Starting pitchers made $18.4M or more in 2021 and E-Rod got offered that much. That’s not a very smart move based on E-Rod’s historical mediocrity. I vote for a bartender to replace both Bloom and Cora. It can’t be a step down!!
I hope Boston resigns him so that the Angels have no shot at signing him.
I’m glad E-Rod’s stats beyond E.R.A are being pointed out, because E.R.A is totally flawed. Especially when E-Rod had a terrible defense behind him. His walk rate was down, home run rate was in line with what it usually is, and strikeout rate was up. His FIP looked good. Those show a much better picture.
I am sure the Sox would love to keep E-Rod long term. An offer of say, 4 year/$60 mil is totally acceptable, and one he should take, and one the Sox should offer.
To go from being out a full season, with what he was going through, and then to be thrown into a contract year, what E-Rod was able to do was actually pretty great. Locking him up and giving him some security, may be what he needs to take the next step.
duffy – Seriously? I explained why what you said is a complete misinterpretation of the stats in a different response. Devers playing 3B is a big part of the problem for every pitcher on the staff not just E-Rod.
When you look at a pitcher’s walk rate and point out that it went down but you don’t point out that his hit rate went up more than the walk rate fell you are misleading people trying to understand the numbers. It’s pure deception on the part of the person presenting half the story.
Rationalizing the numbers is a fans prerogative but the facts are the facts and E-Rod has crap stats for a guy about to make $18.4M in 2022. Trying to suggest that ERA is a bad pitcher evaluation stat shows a complete lack of understanding
of the game. Nobody in their right mind would use the logic that several people have used to rationalize a mediocre pitcher like E-Rod to be anything more than league average and nobody pays a league average player $18.4M.
Bloom screwed up again unless someone bails him out and signs E-Rod to get him off the Red Sox books for 2022. Numbers don’t lie and numbers say he’s a 3.80/1.30 era/whip starting pitcher. They are a dime a dozen.
Better chance of success if you avoid injury prone players. You’re better off going with Kyle Davies or Colin Mchugh type rather than high risk high upside guys like Rodriguez
Was he injured in 2021? 31 starts. He sat out 2020 due to covid related health issue but not injured. 2019 he started 34 so that’s not it either.
The #1 rule of GM’ing is “play nobody out of position and never less than average defense at each position”
#2 rule is never add injury prone players, no matter how good the stats are
#3, add only talent…never untalented players
Camden453 – Commentary of the day!!! OUTSTANDING!!
Can you send a memo to Bloom explaining the 3 top runs of a GM!!!
Well what can we say about Eddie. There is a contingent out there that thinks Eddie sucks because he has a high ERA however I believe that is misguided.and here is why.
First we have to remember he missed the entire year with complications from Covid (Myocarditis). It was thought that he might not be available to later in the baseball season but he rallied and was on the team the whole year. There were times that he looked strong and pitched like the borderline ace he was in the 2nd half of 2019 and others times he looked tired and just not very good. That may have been due to the recovery from Mycarditis sometimes he just didnt have it. That happens to all pitchers sometimes they dont have it and they fight through but in Eddies case sometimes he just looked tired. With that being said here are some facts to consider when saying the Eddie sucks:
* K’s per nine are 10.65 best of his career
* Walks per nine 2.68 the lowest of his career
* GB percentage 43.2% better then all but one year
* HR per 9 better then career average
* FIP was 3.55% that was the biggest disparity from ERA in all of baseball indicating the left side of the field hurt him more then any other pitcher on the Red Sox
* His batting average of balls hit in play was .363 by far the worst of his career indicating some bad luck on his side.
There are a few negatives
He gave up the higher barrel p[ercentage and hard hit percentage then all but one year and i’m sure that contributed to his high babip in some way.
The bottom line is overall this guy was a much better pitcher then his ERA indicated imo. I know that some people will look at his era and say he sucks but that is just not the case. My guess is he will be fully recovered from the Myocarditis next year and he wont have those games when he just looked exhausted and he will pitch much better. I think it is a mistake to let him go and I think Bloom was absolutely 100% correct to give this guy a QO. The proof in that pudding will be played out when he signs with another club after not taking the QO which I think he turns down. The Tigers were already know to want this guy and not the Angels who knows who else. I hope Bloom can work out an extension but if not the Red Sox will get draft compensation. Bloom you did right on this one extending the QO.
One thing that would be interesting to see, if anyone keeps stats on it, is the number of weak contact hits he allowed against the shift. Cora seemed to use the shift even more this past year than anytime in the past. For a pitcher who is usually in the top 10% in the league in weak contact that can be detrimental, because weak contact more often than not goes to the batter’s opposite field and if the IF is in a shift there’s frequently no one there to field that weak contact.
If they aren’t already doing so the team should start tracking how many hits a given pitcher allows that go against the shift. Using a shift shouldn’t be a rote thing, that’s done regardless of what pitcher is on the mound.
Bruin1012 – Below is a very simple refute of your argument
1 – Ks per nine is just one small component of how an ERA is determined. If a guy gets ground outs or fly outs or strike out they all count as outs and are reflected in his terrible ERA.
2 – Walks per 9 is 2.68 compared to Eovaldi who had 1.7 (1 less walk per game). Is that stat meaningful? Only if it goes down over time so the WHIP goes down.
3 – Ground Ball percentage is meaningless in a vacuum and is also reflected in the ERA. Modern metrics completely skew the importance of how an out was made. On a team that sucks on defense like Boston a higher GB should be considered bad!!
4 – HR per 9 being normal puts no context to how bad normal is. 1.1 compared to Eovaldi’s 0.7 shows yet another reason he doesn’t deserve Eovaldi equivalent money. Also, HR/9 in a vacuum is meaningless since it too is part of the ERA which is still very bad.
5 – FIP and GB are linked and like I mentioned Devers at 3B kills FIP so it’s meaningless as a stand alone stat. He produced more balls hit to Devers and got lots of errors. How can that be interpreted as a positive?
6 – Batted balls hit in play also relates to Boston’s atrocious fielding led by Devers. Basically 3 of the 6 pluses you listed all revert back to a bad Devers at 3B. We all know that so lets get that problem fixed and bring some meaning back to those metrics. Also, ALL your points are considered in calculating an ERA and WHIP so if those two MOST KEY stats are bad that’s all one needs to say the pitcher didn’t perform well.
E-Rod had flashes of brilliance and just as many disastrous games. For six years he’s been the same pitcher. Looks great but performs well every other game. That explains the mediocre ERA and WHIP and that’s all you need to know to conclude he’s not a SP 1,2,3 or 4. At best, he’s a SP 5 like Perez or some of the other slugs Bloom has brought to Boston. Whitlock would be a better starter than E-Rod so save the money and begin the season with Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta. Then, use the E-Rod money to get a 3B to replace Devers and move Devers to DH and trade JD for a closer like Hendricks.
E-ROD is a complete waste of money. Pray for the QO paying off by having some other GM screw-up and contract E-ROD. That’s the ONLY way Bloom comes out ahead in this situation.
KD with all due respect strikeout do matter for the most part you are either a strikeout pitcher or you rely on soft contact or another words you are crafty.
The reality is Eddie is both he struck a career high 10.5 batters per inning and walked a career low 2.68 batters per 9 as well as limited hard contact in the top 90% in baseball. This is a good thing. It appears that he was extremely unlucky and all the advanced pitching stats that quite frankly are better then ERA seem to agree. you name it FIP, XFIP, Sierra, FIP- they all paint a different pitcher. In fact the more and more I look into his numbers the more impressed I am especially when we factor in the eye test. There were times this year that Eddie looked like he shouldn’t even be a big leaguer his fastball was sitting at 88-89 mph that is just way lower then I have ever seen him and when that happened he got rocked he was a terrible pitcher no question. There were other time he was throwing 94-95 crisp swing and miss fastaballs along with a great changeup and quality slider. When that happened he was borderline ace like just like he was for the 2nd half of 2019. Why so jeckyl and Hyde well maybe he is just inconsistent an that is all he will ever be. There is another explanation possible though and that is that he was not fully recovered in his stamina and just didn’t have it more often then in the past because ill tell you what when he had it he was easily a number 2 and when he was throwing 88-89 he was batting practice. SO if you believe he will throw consistently 88-89 then yes Bloom should take a pass. I don’t expext that to happen.
I believe that most GM’s in baseball agree with me I’m guessing he wont accept the QO and he will be signed for a contract as high as Eovaldi or higher on the open market. When this happens then how does Bloom look for giving the QO? The bottom line is the market will say what he is worth and I guarantee you its a hell of a lot more then 8 million per year. Finally I’m not going to compare Eddie to Nate. Nate had a career year and yes he looks like a steal at the contract he signed however Eddie being worth the same or more then the Eovaldi contact is not mutually excusive and in the case yes I believe Eddie is worth a one year 18.4 million contract and is worth a multi year contract but now that he is on the free market I think you will be surprised at what he ultimately gets I wont be.
Bruin1012 – All I ask is that you tell the whole story not just the parts that support your belief.
His Ks/9 went up. Great! Was it reflected in his ERA? YES
His BBs/9 went down. Great! Was it reflected in his ERA? YES
Was either reflected in his WHIP? YES, the BBs/9
So why care about stats like Ks per 9?
It can be argued effectively with Devers playing in the infield that high strike outs reduce the chances for pitchers to have the ball hit to the defensive nightmare named Devers. So a strikeout is an advantage over a ground ball pitcher for Boston.
Is there much difference between a fly ball pitcher and strike out pitcher? Yes but it’s much smaller than a GB pitcher versus a K pitcher. Why? Because the fielding percentage of fly balls is roughly .025 to .040 percentage points higher than ground balls. Since the only chance for a runner to make first base when a K happens is a passed ball, there is less risk of mistakes with a strikeout pitcher than a fly out pitcher which has less risk than a ground out pitcher.
Yes, that theory is solid EXCEPT strike out pitchers throw more pitches thus there is more wear and tear on their arm and if a pitch count is used they often need more relief help than a fly ball pitcher. Ground ball pitchers, especially with Devers on a team, tend to run into the same problem strike out pitchers have in that more pitches are needed when Devers misplays a ball and more stress is on the pitcher with the additional base runner.
Thus, while E-Rod may have increased his strikeouts he reduced his innings per game putting more stress on the bullpen. While he did reduce his walks per inning pitched he more than offset it with additional hits per inning pitched thus raising his all important WHIP.
E-Rods stamina is a very tough topic to be definitive about. First, he was told in the press that the doctor told him to not exercise for 6 full months in August of 2020. That meant he should have started exercising in February of 2021. He did not follow instructions and the Red Sox did not intervene in his aggressive comeback attempt. If he had followed orders, he would have missed as much as Sale and made his first start in late July or early August based on the normal off season and spring training time table. That would have meant Bloom re-signed him knowing he was only going to pitch two months for $8.3M in 2021. That’s why I recommended he be non-tendered last December.
E-Rod’s recovery time was cut short which is always a risk for relapse or restarts. He got ready early in the year and put up decent numbers in April due to adrenaline and a need to prove himself. Then in May, June and July we saw the worst of E-Rod. Whether it was fatigue or simply E-Rod being E-Rod because his historical stats showed he is known for his good month bad month pattern. For whatever the reason, the Red Sox would have been better off spending the $8M on a healthy quality starter instead of E-Rod. Then, as E-Rod does annually, he got on a hot streak and had several good games with several bad games hidden inside his hot streak. August and Sept numbers were more in line with what fans hope from him but he seldom delivers. To put into perspective how badly he vacillates up and down in performance I have pulled his first half and second half numbers. Please note that despite having an excellent Aug and Sept his second half numbers were just slightly above his career numbers which are mediocre.
First Half = ERA 5.52 WHIP 1.372 6-5 record thanks to run support
Second Half – ERA 3.71 WHIP 1.412 7-3 record thanks to better support
His Dr. Jekyll Mr Hyde behavior in the second half is very telling. TWO excellent months were offset by ONE terrible month. That’s his career in a nutshell. You can’t take a snip-it of his season and claim he’s great because he performed well in a short time frame. He has 6 years of history that say for every great segment of pitching he will provide an equally bad segment of pitching that will lead back to his current averages of 3.80 and 1.300 ERA and WHIP.
Last point, I don’t care how hard he throws. Whether he’s completely back with his velocity or not he’s a bad investment. There are no signs of him being more consistent and to win you need consistent excellence not infrequent excellence followed by bad starts. If your opinion is that he’s worth more than $8M great. That doesn’t align with his history of performances but it’s your opinion and facts clearly aren’t going to change your mind.
If you believe all GMs agree with you and not me that’s also fine. I don’t need to have people standing behind me to state the facts about a player and that’s all I’ve done. I’ve brought to light how incredibly mediocre E-Rod is and how incredibly undeserving of $18.4M a year he is. That’s all I set out to prove and did.
If E-Rod gets lots of money that’s great for E-Rod. If someone else gives it to him I will acknowledge Bloom for playing this one correctly. If Boston gives it to him I will blame Bloom for yet another idiot move. It’s been 2 years and still no magic from Bloom but many fans want the Red Sox to win so badly they are willing to go over to the dark side and support the pretender. Let me know when the Red Sox win another ring. I’ll check back in the 2030s when both Bloom and Cora will be gone!!
Eddie seems like if he could put it all together consistently he could be a 1 or 2. However the way his career has gone, he has been more of a solid 3-4.
Excellent pitcher. Sign him. Slot him in the middle of the rotation. Win a championship. That was easy.
id bet he comes back. E-Rod’s got a good thing going in BOS
4/$80 million
That would be pretty ridiculous
he’s a #4 at best…Mr Inconsistent…every few games he’ll pitch great and everyone says how awesome he is…the only signing of him I want to see is a sign and trade..I’d rather bring in Verlander and Kershaw
He has a .703 winning percentage over his last three years. Maybe explain how he wins so many games, if all he does is throw a great game occasionally.
I think 4 @ 17-18 AAV might get it done, but I’d still want him at 5 @ 20 tbh
While I would like to see E-Rod come back to Boston on a multi-year deal, it has to be at a reasonable price. I was thinking the Eovaldi deal (4/$64M) is a great place to start and maybe push it as far as 4/$72M but that’s it. If other teams are willing to pay $20M+ per year for him, let him all and take the draft pick. Then they could sign Jon Gray to replace Eduardo. Gray should jump at 4/$60 or 4/$64
*Let him walk and take the draft pick
Bloom was right to offer him a QO. At least a few teams will hesitate to sign him. I like him, but anything past $60M/4, and I’d have to start looking at Syndergaard. His numbers are really good, but the myowhatever should be considered a risk factor.
For anyone calling ERod a #3/4 pitcher, those aren’t his numbers. Since 2018, at a minimum of 400 IPs, ERod’s ERA ranks #40. His FIP ranks him #16, and his xFIP ranks him #26. He’s #9 in wins, despite missing 2020. And he averaged 29 GS per season. He is a clear #2.
There is a reason why MLB-R projects him as a $70M/5 candidate.
Always a good sign when the former team, in this case the Red Sox, extend an offer. When a big market club like the Sox don’t offer a new contract, I always wonder what they know that we don’t.
I look at that also (actually, I look at everything). When teams like LAD and Houston, don’t offer a QO to guys like Kershaw & Verlander, it tells me that they know something I don’t know.
Same thing as when a playoff contender like Cleveland trades away guys like Kluber and Clevinger. You always have to be suspicious, but if you can understand a team’s motivation, like the WS trading Sale to rebuild, I feel more comfortable.
If I was him, I accept the QO, stay put in Boston who appears to be a v clear contender and then, work out an extension on top of that before the season starts. They’re also said to be in the Market for a top SS and might move Xander to 2B. I would leave him put and just sign a guy that can play 2B like Baez or Semien !
to4 – Clear contender? Seriously? 4th best talent in the division. Won’t make the playoffs since the miracle performance happened in 2021.
You are right he should accept the QO since it’s more than double his worth!!
FYI…. if BOSTON gets stuck with E-ROD there is no money for a quality player like Semien or Baez. That’s why having Whitlock as the 5th SP makes sense since that frees up money of a quality player.
3 years, $54MM. Look him up during him prime years but don’t commit too much that it hurts you getting more help, especially should E-Rod go down with another injury.
Al Kaline said he would be.embarassed to strike out like these guys do…or that he felt.embarrassed for striking out.