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Reds Reportedly Open To Trading Sonny Gray

By Anthony Franco | November 23, 2021 at 5:54pm CDT

The Reds are open to trading right-handed starter Sonny Gray this offseason, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). However, Olney hears that Cincinnati isn’t amenable to moving either of Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle.

No deal involving Gray appears to be close, but he’s seemingly the most likely Reds starter to wind up on the move at some point. That’s not especially surprising, since Gray’s also the most expensive of their top trio. Cincinnati has opened the offseason scaling back expenditures, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken about “aligning (the team’s) payroll to its resources.” Early reports suggested a Castillo deal could be part of those efforts, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that it was doubtful any deal involving the 28-year-old would come to fruition.

Gray looks like a fairly straightforward trade candidate as he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract. He’s slated to earn around $10.67MM in 2022 and remains under club control for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. (Gray would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade). That’s a reasonable sum for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, but it also makes him Cincinnati’s fourth-highest paid player. And the three players set to earn loftier sums (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez) wouldn’t be easy to move. Votto’s a franchise icon who has full no-trade protection; Moustakas and Suárez are coming off bad 2021 seasons and wouldn’t figure to hold much appeal to other clubs.

On the other hand, Gray offers a blend of fairly substantial but still team-friendly salary that could make a trade realistic. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/3.85 SIERA across 135 1/3 innings. That’s decent mid-rotation production, and Gray was even better over his first couple seasons in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly home environments, the right-hander reeled off 231 1/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball from 2019-20.

Gray has backed up those solid results with strong underlying numbers. While he typically runs walk rates a bit higher than the league average, he also generates an enviable combination of punchouts and grounders. Gray has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball percentages in each of the past three seasons. His 27% and 47.2% marks in those categories in 2021 were his lowest since 2018, but even those were both markedly above the respective league averages (22.6% and 42.7%) for starting pitchers.

Installing Gray into the middle of a rotation should have plenty of appeal around the league. The Dodgers were already rumored to have interest in that possibility this offseason, and others would join them if the Reds’ front office began to discuss trade frameworks in earnest.

Both Castillo and Mahle could bring even greater returns, as they’re arguably superior pitchers who are more affordable. Like Gray, both righties are controllable for two more seasons, but they’re proceeding through arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Castillo for a $7.6MM salary in 2022; Mahle is projected to bring in around $5.6MM. Both pitchers would stand to earn a final raise in 2023, although it’s unlikely either would match or top the value of Gray’s $12.5MM option that year.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Reds are preparing to tear the roster down completely. Coming off an 83-win season with a strong core led by their talented rotation, it’s not implausible that Cincinnati could compete next season. A frugal offseason would certainly make building a strong roster more difficult for Krall and his front office, particularly with middle-of-the-order presence Nick Castellanos likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. A returning group including Castillo, Mahle, Votto, Jesse Winker, Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson certainly has promise, though. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them target near-MLB players in potential discussions involving Gray to help thread that needle of remaining competitive while cutting costs.

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View Comments (73)

Comments

  1. baseballpun

    6 months ago

    Well, Cincy will always have that first-round playoff loss in that fake 2020 season to remember.

    Reply
    • Eatdust666

      6 months ago

      Yes, because you can’t win if you don’t score and they literally did not score at all, despite the fact their pitching staff, literally the only reason how they even made it surrendered just 6 runs, 5 earned in 20.1 innings (4 of them came in the bottom of the 8th inning in Game 2).

      Reply
  2. Brentquigley02

    6 months ago

    I don’t want the Angels to get a bunch of guys all for just one season but if that is how they do it then please get this guy.

    Reply
    • ilovelamp

      6 months ago

      Two seasons. Team option means it’s up to the team whether to bring him back in 2023.

      Reply
      • Brentquigley02

        6 months ago

        @ilovelamp You are right so I guess the Angels won’t be interested since they only acquire/sign pitchers for one season.

        Reply
    • Vizionaire

      6 months ago

      he has the lowest ops at the angels stadium. not sure that’s how he pitches once acquired.

      Reply
      • Vizionaire

        6 months ago

        OPS against

        Reply
    • HalosHeavenJJ

      6 months ago

      Playing with the trade simulator his value is likely about Detmers. I’d love to snag Farmer for SS.

      Farmer and Gray for Detmers and Canning is about a fair swap on that site. That’s an MLB ready back end piece and near MLB ready middle to possibly top end piece in exchange for Gray and their second best shortstop.

      Dodgers could top that without blinking.

      Reply
      • myaccount2

        6 months ago

        BTV’s engine is so broken, but that one actually does feel pretty fair. Maybe another small piece going to Cincy like a AAAA-type utility player or a flier on an unheralded prospect.

        Reply
        • iverbure

          6 months ago

          Btv engine is much more accurate than random guy on mlbtr opinion on trade value. If everyone had to look at the site once before posting their own ridiculous trade proposals then we wouldn’t have to read half as much nonsense on here.

      • bkbk

        6 months ago

        Theres zero chance the angels move from their young pitchers. Its more likely to look like Kyren Paris and Dshawn Knowles. Also Detmers was a top 15 prospect who had all his control essentially, theres no way they move him.

        Reply
        • HalosHeavenJJ

          6 months ago

          Gray is what we hope Detmers will become. I’m not a fan of trading from our barely existent pitching pool but to get a quality piece it will require quality going back.

      • JaxDan

        6 months ago

        Ad a Reds fan I would make that deal. If the Reds are going to retool then they need to let Barrero start at SS. What would it take to get Adell? The Reds really need a controllable Outfielder.

        Reply
        • Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher

          6 months ago

          Gray for an everyday CF would be a good move for the Reds. Last year, CF was a wasteland after Naylor cooled off. Plus, he’s better suited for a corner.

          Can’t rely on Senzel to stay on the field, and our Japanese import hasn’t done anything of note since he arrived.

          The only stud FA CF is Starling Marte, but the Reds ain’t gonna pay him.

          A low cost gamble would be FA Odubel Herrera. He’s a decent enough CF, especially in our bandbox. Figure .260ish with 20 HR and 10 SB. However, would have to bat Odubel down in the order. Phillies used him in the lead off spot because they had no one else. But an OBP that’s barely over .300 won’t cut it there.

        • JaxDan

          6 months ago

          I would much rather have Herrera than Aquino in the outfield. This is a player that I can see the Reds going after

        • RedsArmy

          6 months ago

          Yes a 3.4 WAR stud pitcher for a declining CF who has been barely average the last 2 years…how exciting. It’s alarming how hard they are betting on young pitchers when the Reds have shown a historic inability to develop pitching in house…outside of Cueto and Homer Bailey there have been a ton of whiffs. You can’t spend all your money on bats and expect to win playoff games. Ask Arte Moreno.

        • JaxDan

          6 months ago

          Who said Gray for Herrera? Philadelphia outright Herrera on November 6th.

  3. Fever Pitch Guy

    6 months ago

    “The Reds are open to trading free agent starter Sonny Gray”

    Now teams can trade free agents? I’m liking the new CBA!

    Reply
    • JerryBird

      6 months ago

      Fever – I think the writer kind of missed that one. Some people tend to show themselves poorly when they get in front of a keyboard.

      Reply
    • MajorLeague79

      6 months ago

      I read that part twice too.

      Reply
    • Samuel

      6 months ago

      Mr. Franco has been feverishly publishing a lot of articles the past number of days to keep up with the volume of news.

      He’s done an excellent job – researching and bringing up things I was not aware of…..and I suspect most readers weren’t either.

      He mistyped something – as we all do. No reason to rag on the man.

      Reply
      • traveling man

        6 months ago

        HAAAAA!

        A pathetic job!

        Reply
      • Fever Pitch Guy

        6 months ago

        Samuel – No need for white knighting, nobody is ragging on him. The world is always better with a little humor, if a mistake leads to a funny result it’s okay to mention it.

        I do think every writer should always take a minute to quickly read what they wrote, but this is free content so not a big deal here.

        Reply
  4. Lefty_Orioles_Fan

    6 months ago

    But, but, but, what about Sonny Black?

    Reply
    • dennyd

      6 months ago

      He doesn’t have to pitch. In fact, he gets to stay home and receive a check for equal or greater value.

      Reply
  5. douger007

    6 months ago

    I think castillo could beat 12MM if he is an absolute beast in ’22.
    And knowing how these tightwads are thinking, 5.6 is clearly WAY too much for mahle.

    Reply
  6. douger007

    6 months ago

    Or maybe not. From 7.6 to 12 is a pretty big raise, I guess.

    Reply
  7. MannyBeingMVP

    6 months ago

    Deleted headline: Fifty Trades of Gray.

    Reply
  8. vtadave

    6 months ago

    I wasn’t aware a team could trade a free agent. Now that I know that, I wonder what the Dodgers could get for a Scherzer/Seager package.

    Reply
  9. dodger1958

    6 months ago

    Decently priced

    Reply
  10. DocBB

    6 months ago

    Castellini needs to croak

    Reply
  11. parkdav

    6 months ago

    Water reportedly open to being wet

    Reply
  12. WHeitzman

    6 months ago

    Reds are willing to trade everyone to include free agents

    Reply
    • JaxDan

      6 months ago

      I believe that I read the Phillies are interested in Reds free agent reliever Michael Givens,I am curious as to what Philadelphia will trade to get him.

      Reply
  13. PiratesFan1981

    6 months ago

    Gray goes to Houston rather it’s a free agent or Red trading a free agent to Houston lmao! Yankees will avoid him and Red Sox may nibble. I think it will come down to Houston or Texas. Houston is my ideal choice and makes the most sense.

    Reply
  14. bigdaddyt

    6 months ago

    Jays are willing and waiting

    Reply
  15. ChiSox_Fan

    6 months ago

    Who wrote this article?!

    Willing to trade a free agent?!

    Reply
  16. ajrodz1335

    6 months ago

    Rays just spent money on Wander, trade Xavier Edwards, Kiermaier and whoever else they want

    Reply
  17. steelerbravenation

    6 months ago

    Gray for Drew Waters

    Reply
    • Appalachian_Outlaw

      6 months ago

      As a Braves fan myself, no thanks.

      Reply
      • MannyBeingMVP

        6 months ago

        I agree at this point rather trade Pache (but not for Gray) and keep Waters.

        Reply
        • Appalachian_Outlaw

          6 months ago

          Same here, Manny. In the right trade I’d be okay if they dealt Pache, but Gray isn’t that trade. Not saying Gray doesn’t have some value, but they could get almost the exact same caliber of pitcher off the FA market.

        • Oxford Karma

          6 months ago

          Who is that pitcher for 12 mil?

        • MannyBeingMVP

          6 months ago

          Matz or DeSclafani.

  18. sleepy bear

    6 months ago

    Reds are the new Pirates

    Reply
  19. Yankee-4-Lifer 75

    6 months ago

    Just as long as Gray isn’t going to be traded to the Yankees, then I don’t care. I wish him my absolute best elsewhere.

    Reply
    • MannyBeingMVP

      6 months ago

      Gray agrees with you.

      Reply
  20. Samuel

    6 months ago

    Add the Reds to the Rockies and Rangers – teams with FO’s that make and talk about making moves that fans can follow…..and come away with no idea of that they’re trying to do.

    Reply
  21. traveling man

    6 months ago

    Can we get legitimate writers?

    Open to trading Free Agent Starter?

    Reply
    • Waddupitsyahboy

      6 months ago

      You must be proud point out others’ mistakes as if you’ve never made one.

      Everyone knew what he meant: get on with it.

      Reply
      • traveling man

        6 months ago

        When I make mistakes, I correct them!
        Not post them!

        And even if he doesn’t know how,use a proofreader!

        Reply
      • traveling man

        6 months ago

        No!

        I do not tolerate rubbish!

        Reply
        • Waddupitsyahboy

          6 months ago

          It’s a good thing you don’t let a dime for this sites “rubbish”.

    • JoeBrady

      6 months ago

      Dude, 20 posters have already mentioned that. The rest just ignored it.

      Reply
  22. Mario93

    6 months ago

    For about 2-3 years it seems Castillo and Gray are getting traded from the Reds. Reds are a ridiculously poor franchise. If you wanna trade players just trade them already, give us fans something to talk about at least.. Hearing about it every single year is so annoying.

    Reply
    • MannyBeingMVP

      6 months ago

      It is not like the Reds issue a press release.

      Reply
  23. formerdraftpick

    6 months ago

    Looks like the Reds are planning to contend for a #1 draft pick in 2023.

    Reply
  24. Joseph Gonzalez

    6 months ago

    I have nothing but frustrating memories about gray during his yankee tenure. Some spots just aren’t for certain players I guess. Seemed like a cool dude though

    Reply
  25. theodore glass

    6 months ago

    We always talk about the A’s and Rays relocating but what about the Reds?

    Reply
    • fisher40

      6 months ago

      Too much history and tradition for the Reds to relocate. Reds won’t leave Cinci.

      Reply
      • Joseph Gonzalez

        6 months ago

        I would be saddened as a baseball fan if they left cinci

        Reply
    • ksoze

      6 months ago

      Lol, they get good attendance, they just have a cheap owner. A new city wouldn’t change it.

      Reply
  26. DodgerOK

    6 months ago

    They are open to trading everyone. They have nothing else to do but look busy moving pieces around. They are not trying to win.

    Reply
  27. fisher40

    6 months ago

    Fire sale for the Reds this winter. They obviously are not interested in wanting to make the playoffs and improving there 84-78 record next year

    Reply
  28. mbauza25

    6 months ago

    Is hard to be a reds fan , my god why own a team and not what to win

    Reply
    • LebronHatesAsians

      6 months ago

      Own a team and make hundreds of millions a year at worst and billions a year at best. The books are closed to us but if teams are selling in the billions the take has got to be good.

      Reply
  29. Moonlight Graham

    6 months ago

    The Giants and Jays are my teams, and I should sure love to see either one go after Sonny.

    Reply
    • LebronHatesAsians

      6 months ago

      He’s gotta be going out west or down south. He needs that laid back atmosphere so that NorCal life or the retirement community should definitely do the trick. I have a feeling Rays are going all in this season.

      Reply
  30. bravesfanfrombham

    6 months ago

    Sonny Gray gets traded more than gossip

    Reply
  31. Yankee-4-Lifer 75

    6 months ago

    True dat. Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray have so much in common. All Star pitchers in a land far far away from New York. And some fans out there say that doesn’t matter? But it does matter. It definitely takes a different animal to pitch in NY. I wish Scherzer could sign with the Yankees. He’s definitely worth $40 million a year for 3 years.

    Reply
  32. jim stem

    6 months ago

    Gray to the Mets for Mark Vientos (AAA 3b prospect), cash and a minor league arm?

    Reply
  33. pjmcnu

    6 months ago

    Reds: Well, we tried for a year or two. Rebuild time! See you in 2028! Maybe again in 2029. Definitely rebuilding again by 2030.

    Reply
  34. Travis2510

    6 months ago

    Desclafani re-signed with the Giants

    Matz just signed with the Cardinals

    Reply

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