Confirming a widely expected development, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that Trevor Story will not accept the Rockies’ qualifying offer ahead of tomorrow’s deadline. As such, he’ll forego the one-year, $18.4MM deal and test the open market as part of a historic class of high-end free agent shortstops.
Assuming Story does not ultimately re-sign with Colorado, the Rox will receive a compensation pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A presuming Story signs for $50MM or more, or a pick between the second round and Competitive Balance Round B should he sign for less than $50MM. The former is, of course, more likely; MLBTR has him pegged for six years and $126MM.
Perhaps the more intriguing news in Saunders’ report is that the list of teams who’ve checked in with the shortstop (Saunders counts 8) does not include the Rockies. While Story is widely expected to leave the Mile High City this winter, news that Colorado hasn’t even checked in with their longtime star’s camp is noteworthy — and makes their decision not to trade him at this year’s trade deadline all the more puzzling. Per a June report from Saunders, Story made it clear to Rockies’ management he had little interest in engaging in extension talks (perhaps related to the club’s handling of Nolan Arenado following his extension), and letting him walk without at least the appearance of a fight may not endear new GM Bill Schmidt to the Colorado fanbase.
Though Story’s walk-year numbers (.251/.329/.471, with an OPS+ of 103) hardly represent his strongest showing, his career baseline of .272/.340/.523 (112 OPS+) tells a different tale, particularly given Story’s consistently stellar glovework (69 DRS across six seasons) at a premium position. The relative mediocrity of Story’s 2021 may also have been driven by an elbow injury that sent him to the 10-day IL in late May. An MRI at the time revealed no structural damage, and the shortstop looked much more like his old self in the second half, posting an .843 OPS (just below his career .863 mark).
Story’s OPS+ numbers take the effect of Coors Field into account, but it is worth noting that his home/road splits are significant; his career OPS at Coors (.972) dwarfs his career mark (.752) closer to sea level. This may give teams pause in offering Story the sort of mega-deal that Carlos Correa and Corey Seager (and possibly Marcus Semien) are likely to receive, but he remains a fairly safe bet to at least push nine figures of guaranteed money.
Presuming Story ultimately departs, the Rockies do have an in-house replacement at the ready in former top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who mostly played second base in 2021 but also served as Story’s deputy at short. The versatility of Ryan McMahon (who played second and third in his breakout 2021) and speedster Garrett Hampson (who’s seen time at five positions in the bigs) gives the club a chance to get creative in putting its infield together. It may also open a space for power-hitting corner infielder Elehuris Montero, the Rox’ number-four prospect per MLB.com, to make it to Denver in 2022.
shocker
Good story on Story.
Well that closes the book on this one.
He is authoring a new beginning elsewhere it seems
Elsewhere in a land far far away?
Asset management 101
very uncharacteristic move for the twins to go after story but wow I hope it happens.
Makes no sense since they have Royce and Marten who can both play there and have pedigree. Smoke and mirrors is my guess…
Not exactly a Story book ending for his career in Colorado
They project six years and 125 million, roughly what the Rockies saved dumping Arenado.
This off-season will be a test, do the Rockies sign two or three top free agents to show that the Arenado and Story subtractions do not define the team.
Suppose the Rockies add Nick Castellanos, Kyle Seager, Jorge Soler to DH, and one frontline starter out of Gausman and Stroman. Then I will give them the benefit of the doubt that it was just too late to repair the relationships with Arenado and Story. But I don’t expect it.
Rockies are punting on a rebuild as long as possible, fielding luke warm teams that cannot compete, similar to what the Orioles did. In the end, it will make the REAL rebuild longer and more painful.
Yeah I remember them saying that about SF
What top tier free agent in their right mind would sign with this team right now.
A top tier hitter will gladly choose Colorado if they get a big pay day. Most players will give a small discount to play for a contender, but there is a limit to that for most. Obviously, Colorado is unlikely to be a contender, but signing three big bats could make them fun to watch like San Diego.
A player looking to rebound on a 1-2 year deal maybe but that’s far from top tier
The Rockies haven’t signed “two or three top free agents” since Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle prior to the 2001 season and that turned out about as badly as was to be expected. They won’t add anything of significance this offseason except maybe a stop-gap SS (Galvis, Iglesias, Simmons).
And now you know the rest of the Story.
Story checks out.
*pretends to be shocked*
Welcome to Houston
This guy will hit a ton in Houston with that lineup.
Maybe on a 1 yr deal but not long term.
I’m thinking they sign Correa. Story will end up somewhere nice though.
If the Astros don’t present Correa with a larger offer, they need to move on & sign Story.
Are we really surprised by anything the Rockies’ front office does anymore? I’ll be curious down the road to hear from Story what negotiations with them went like, that f there even were any.
Now, having said that… I’m not the GM of an MLB team and I’m not qualified to be, but in the opinion of this guy, there’s no way in the world I would be guaranteeing major money to or getting into a bidding war for any player with that significant of a career home/road OPS split. I’m sure some team will end up compensating Story very well, but they’re going to have their fingers crossed when they do it.
Hard to tell… I think Story will be fine elsewhere but his stats are very inconsistent
Why did it take him until the day before the deadline to decline the offer if all reports are saying he is unhappy,wants out of Colorado, and the Rockies don’t even want him ??
Maybe he was giving them a chance to make an offer. It’s a good question though.
Because his agent was doing due diligence to ensure other teams were not scared off by playing in Coors field factor and obviously he found offers to his liking. Why would he need to rush a decision if there is a deadline? Why do people wait until April 15 to file their taxes?
I agree with you. People are lazy that’s why they wait until April 15 to file taxes
Procrastination !!
What does any player really gain by announcing that they aren’t accepting the QO any time before the actual deadline?
There’s going to be more to this Story.
Nice one
C Young already dialing his number if the interest from TEXAS is what has been rumored.
It’s been a Rocky Story the past couple of years.
Wonder who will risk it, given the home/away splits any hitter friendly team will do it.
Reds need a SS
He played in Colorado. Everyone who plays in CO has home/road splits that are noticeable. They tend to go away when they are no longer playing in CO. This is stating the obvious (to most people).
I expect the Angels to make an offer.
Did you submit your free agent predictions ?
I thought the Astros would pursue him but it seems they are really high on J. Peña. Perhaps they look to sign a top starting pitcher and Graveman. Personally, I think we will need a catcher and 1st baseman in 23 more than a SS next year. Peña and Leon are two of our best prospects and closest to being ready. I think it’s better to spend a year early at 1B (Yuli can slide back to 3rd and Bregman can go to SS if needed) and Catcher if you find a good fit rather than try to make something fit next offseason.
Agree, holding out hope for Andrelton as a bridge to Peña, Leon, or Novis. For the umpteenth year in a row, it’d be great to add a top notch LHRP
wRC+ is 10th among SS over the last 4 years. Next year he will be 30 and will not age well away from Coors, Whoever signs him, is gonna wish they hadn’t in a year or two.
Sign him Cardinals.
This is a Never Ending Story….ahhhhhhhh……
I’m sure someone will give him stupid money.
Like Arte Moreno.
He’ll be someone’s foolish consolation prize for failing to get Correa, Seager and Semien and they’ll be on the hook for 6 years of mediocre play.
If you’re that team, do you give him a five year deal for 120 mil or do you trade for a guy like Rosario from the Guardians who is now are eligible?
Arbitration
Mystery Team will swoop in and sign him.
Story goes to the Rangers
I hope so.
Story + Rizzo + 50 mil or Cory Seager. Guessing big time on the Numbers.
Which would you rather have? Yes I get it Matt Olsen plus Seager/Correa is better but that’s not the choice.
As a Yankee fan, think I’d rather have Story and Rizzo and be 50 mil poorer. Not sure how deep our pockets really are this off season.
Though not the defender Story is, Seager is younger (you’ll get more prime years out of him), has had better offensive production the past couple seasons and, most importantly, has a positive post-season résumé. As I eluded to earlier, he has defensive shortcomings and can look awkward out there at times, but at some point during his 8-10 year contract, he’ll be a 3rd baseman.
With the notion that they are all healthy, imagine having Seager flanked by Judge and Stanton, with Gallo and others following? That’s an incredible lineup. You can take those millions saved and put it towards more pitching because given the way starting pitchers and relievers are used in this era, you can never have too much.
Where is the story heading next?
Whoa, what a shock.
Toy Story
I don’t think Bryant will get a contract of 300+Million. Can Gio play short full time and the Yankees sign Bryant instead for third base?
I don’t think Bryant will get 200M unless he signs a 10 year deal. 6/180 is his max in my opinion, but he’ll look to add years.
makes their decision not to trade him at this year’s trade deadline all the more puzzling.
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It is not at all puzzling. Their Front Office is inept. It is not only not puzzling, it was pretty much expected.
How can you say that if you don’t know what was offered? It’s entirely possible that, with Story scuffling until after the trade deadline, no one offered anything of value and the Rockies, knowing Story was guaranteed to reject a QO, just decided to take the draft pick. Or maybe if the offers were of similar value they decided they’d rather give the new GM an extra draft pick to work with than scramble to decide which trade package was better with no GM in place.
Who it’s REALLY puzzling they didn’t trade was Jon Gray.
I can’t be 100% certain, but everyone gets traded. The NYY traded for Rizzo and Gallo, and I’d bet real money on Story out-performing either of those two. He’s a 6-WAR+ player over the previous 3 years. Even in a down season, he was a 4.2 WAR player.
It’s virtually impossible that teams would’ve ignored him if he was on the block.
And they should’ve traded everyone that won’t be part of their next competitive team.
Yea I agree. There is no way they didn’t atleast get a package that was better than 2nd rounder. Plus they don’t even know if it will be that high depending on where he goes.
Add to the fact that they had to pay the rest of his salary this year and it’s makes absolutely zero sense hanging on to him.
@Dustyslambchops23
1. The Rockies get a 1st rounder, not a 2nd rounder, because they received revenue sharing, assuming Story signs for at least $50m.
2. The team that signs him has no bearing whatsoever on the pick the Rockies get.
Agree.
Where is the know-it-all FormerlyCubsWin108 who SWORE that Trevor Story would accept the qualifying offer? Mr Baseball who knows it all. psssf
Story has turned the page
Hopefully rangers don’t give him ridiculous money
Real question – Why does it take so long for players like Story to reject a qualifying offer? Players with similar talent/track record know they’ll get more money and security elsewhere so what’s the strategy in delaying an answer? Especially given the team they are leaving are not one or two players away from being post-season favorites or in the Rockies case, play off-bound?
There is no downside in delaying. If he had injured himself before declining he’d still have that concrete option at least.
I see. Good point.
Maybe a better question would be, why would anyone reject a QO early? There is always a tiny chance you could be in a car crash, or hurt yourself working out. I’m not seeing any upside benefit for an early rejection.
Gauging interest, kind of like what Synder did. Of all the FA SSs, Story is at the bottom of my list. Terrible #s outside Coors.
He plays good defense so the downside is somewhat mitigated. Hope the other GMs share your opinion and he signs for cheap on a shorter deal.
His road OPS is a decent .752.. From what research I’ve done, the decline in home OPS is somewhat made up for in an increase in road OPS.
I’d love to see him sign with st louis, but I know that’sa complete pipe dream
Maybe they can get the Rockies to pay $50m of his contract
Am I out of line by saying a 6/126 is a huge overpay for a player who can barley hit league average outside of Coors field? I know the Twins are looking for a SS this off-season but I’d like them to steer clear of Story if that’s the price the team has to pay.
If bWAR means anything to you, Story has averaged 6 WAR/650 PAs over the past four years.
Story can fly with fantastic power .Works hard on D and the kid has a hose.With lineup protection he’ll see more fastballs instead of all the teams tip toeing around him.Now put him on the bases in front of Ohtani,Trout & Rendon
Look at the free agent SS tool bags .Who has a bigger tool box then Story?IMO he’ll cost less then Seager,Seimien&Correa.Thoughts?
Sorry but he is already in decline. I would pass on Story. 3-4 seasons ago he was a machine.
Whomever signs him will regret it after his first season.