The Astros are coming off their third pennant in the past five years, but they came up a couple games shy of a World Series title. As they set their sights on returning to the Fall Classic in 2022, they’ve retained their skipper and a future Hall of Fame starter. Looming over the entire winter, though: the potential departure of their franchise shortstop.
Guaranteed Contracts
- José Altuve, 2B: $87MM through 2024
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $85MM through 2026
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $74MM through 2024
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $25MM through 2022 (deal contains a $25MM player option for 2023 conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched in 2022)
- Héctor Neris, RHP: $17MM through 2023 (includes buyout of $8.5MM club option for 2024)
- Jake Odorizzi, RHP: $16.5MM through 2023 (Odorizzi can opt out of final year and $6.5MM after 2022 season)
- Michael Brantley, LF: $16MM through 2022
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $10MM through 2022
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $8MM through 2022
- Pedro Báez, RHP: $7.5MM through 2022 (includes buyout of $7.5MM club option for 2023)
- Martín Maldonado, C: $5MM through 2022 (contract also contains $5MM vesting option for 2023)
- Jason Castro, C: $4.25MM through 2022
Total 2022 commitments: $151.85MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Aledmys Díaz – $4.0MM
- Framber Valdez – $3.2MM
- Rafael Montero – $3.1MM
- Ryne Stanek – $2.1MM
- Phil Maton – $1.4MM
- Josh James – $700K
Option Decisions
- Exercised $8MM club option on Yuli Gurriel
Free Agents
The Astros came up a couple games short of a World Series title, but they kicked off their offseason by trying to preserve continuity. Within the first few days, Houston signed manager Dusty Baker to a one-year extension. The accomplished skipper will be back for a third year at the helm, although he’ll be without highly-regarded pitching coach Brent Strom, who left the organization to take the same role with the Diamondbacks.
While a World Series title continues to elude the highly respected Baker, there’s little question he’s been an important stabilizing force over his first two years. The veteran skipper was hired to replace A.J. Hinch over the 2019-20 offseason amidst the self-inflicted organizational tumult due to the sign-stealing scandal. Yet Baker has stepped in and guided the Astros as far as the AL Championship Series in both seasons, and agreeing to an extension seemed like a fairly easy call for general manager James Click and the front office.
Equally obvious was the decision to bring back Yuli Gurriel via an $8MM club option. He’s coming off a batting title and will reprise his role as the regular first baseman. Not long after exercising Gurriel’s option, Houston made a bolder strike. Within an hour of rejecting the team’s $18.4MM qualifying offer, Justin Verlander agreed to re-sign on a $25MM guarantee that contains a matching player option for the following season, conditional on reaching 130 innings pitched next season.
It’s a heavy investment for a pitcher coming off two seasons lost to Tommy John surgery, yet it goes without saying that Verlander’s a unique case. He was a Cy Young award winner during his last healthy season, and there aren’t more than a handful of pitchers teams would rather run out in the first game of a postseason series than peak Verlander. Whether he can regain that form in his age-39 campaign remains to be seen, but he’ll slot into the top of the starting staff.
Even sans Verlander, Houston had an impressive rotation. Yet it now looks like one of the game’s best, as he’ll be followed by Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi and perhaps Cristian Javier. That’s an enviable combination of young talent and depth, one that could result in a trade coming out of the transactions freeze. Rival clubs would surely jump at the opportunity to acquire a controllable young starter like Garcia or Valdez, yet it’d be a surprise if the Astros entertained that kind of arrangement.
An Odorizzi deal, on the other hand, seems very possible. The veteran hurler publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the team’s seeming reluctance to let him work through opposing lineups three times during his starts. Odorizzi, Baker and Click all downplayed the possibility of that affecting the parties’ long-term relationship, but a deal arguably makes sense even independent of personal considerations. After all, there’s a case that Odorizzi should slot sixth or seventh among the Astros’ deep starting mix, but he’d be a definitive upgrade to plenty of other clubs’ rotations.
Trading the veteran righty should clear most or all of his $8MM salary for 2022 off the books, which could give the Astros flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster. There aren’t many weak points, but adding to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in 2021 could be a target area. Houston’s already taken one step in that regard this winter, signing former Phillies closer Héctor Neris to a two-year guarantee. Yet they’ve also seen Kendall Graveman, Yimi García and Brooks Raley walk in free agency, and solidifying the bridge to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly could be of interest.
A southpaw to pair with Blake Taylor could be particularly helpful. The free agent crop of lefty relievers is thin, but Andrew Chafin and Tony Watson are among the generally reliable veterans coming off good years who remain on the market. On the trade front, perhaps the Twins would be willing to make Taylor Rogers available.
The Astros’ early offseason activity has primarily revolved around the pitching staff, yet nothing hangs over the offseason more than the shortstop situation. Carlos Correa is the top free agent on the market, and the possibility of the Astros losing one of their franchise players looms large. Houston owner Jim Crane is reportedly disinclined to go beyond a six-year guarantee in the Correa pursuit. With the two-time All-Star having a strong case for a deal that runs into the next decade, it seems increasingly likely he’ll wind up elsewhere in the weeks following the lockout.
If Correa does walk, how does Houston approach the position? They could pivot to the other star free agent shortstop available, Trevor Story. The former Rockie might land a contract in the five-year or six-year range with which Crane seems to be more comfortable, and the Astros expressed some interest in Story before the transactions freeze. Yet Story’s coming off his worst offensive showing in four years, and it remains to be seen if the Astros want to commit a nine-figure investment to another infielder with José Altuve and Alex Bregman each slated to earn at least $29MM annually between 2023-24.
That’s particularly true given the presence of top prospect Jeremy Peña. A highly-regarded defensive shortstop, Peña missed most of the 2021 campaign recovering from wrist surgery. He returned late in the year and hit well over two months at Triple-A before being added to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. Turning shortstop over to Peña right out of the gate might be too risky for a win-now club, but it’s possible the organization is counting on him to seize the job by the middle of the year.
If that’s the case, then a stopgap option might be preferable. Utilityman Aledmys Díaz could be in consideration for such a role, although he’s not an ideal fit at the position defensively. A run at a glove-first shortstop to split time with Díaz could make some sense. In such a scenario, the superior defender could get the bulk of the playing time behind ground-ball specialists like Valdez and McCullers while Díaz plays behind a fly-ball oriented pitcher in the Urquidy or Garcia mold. Andrelton Simmons, probably the best defensive shortstop of this generation, is available in free agency and could likely be had for a low-cost, one-year deal. On the trade market, players like Nick Ahmed, Paul DeJong and Isiah Kiner-Falefa might all be made available.
The rest of the starting lineup is pretty well set. Gurriel, Altuve and Bregman will have the remainder of the infield locked down. Martín Maldonado and Jason Castro are back to share the catching duties. Michael Brantley will play left field regularly, so long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker is established in the other corner. Yordan Álvarez is the designated hitter, and he’s capable of spelling Brantley in left on occasion to give the 34-year-old a breather.
There’s an outside chance of Houston making a splash in center field. They’ve been linked to stars there in trade over the past few months, and it’s possible they inquire about players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds coming out of the lockout. It seems unlikely either the Orioles or Pirates wind up pulling the trigger on that kind of deal, though, and the free agent center field market is completely barren.
Barring a surprise trade strike for a star, José Siri and Chas McCormick seem likely to hold down center, with Jake Meyers also in the mix whenever he’s fully recovered from shoulder surgery. None of those players are locks to provide above-average production, but they all played well as rookies in 2021. Relying on that group shouldn’t be all that problematic, and the Astros can reevaluate midseason if all three players regress.
Aside from shortstop, the Astros’ position player group might be the most stable around the league. There’s virtually no other uncertainty other than how to replace (or retain) Correa. Perhaps a right-handed hitting corner outfielder/DH could be of interest, as each of Brantley, Tucker and Álvarez hit left-handed. Yet all three players are going to be in the lineup on most days anyhow, so that’d be more of a luxury buy than anything else.
Even facing the possibility of Correa walking, the Astros will go into 2022 with a quality roster. They’re returning the bulk of a lineup that was the league’s most productive by measure of wRC+ this past season. The starting staff is strong enough they could consider trading from the depth. The bullpen may be the comparative weak point on the roster, but one more addition — particularly from the left side — could tie that group together nicely.
There should be opportunity for Click and his staff to add, even if dropping $300MM+ on Correa may not be in the cards. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects the club’s 2022 payroll at $170MM, around $15MM – $20MM below where it sat heading into 2021. Houston narrowly ducked below the luxury tax threshold this year as well, so it’s possible they’ll be willing to exceed that figure (wherever it lands in the next CBA) after resetting their tax bracket to avoid escalating penalties.
The Astros aren’t operating in a vacuum. While the A’s look likely to take a step back, the other three teams in the AL West have been among the most active this offseason. The Rangers probably aren’t yet serious threats, but the Mariners and Angels could push towards the top of the division if everything goes well.
Those clubs will have their work cut out for them knocking the Astros from their perch, though, even after accounting for the potential loss of Correa. His departure would certainly make them worse, but there’s so much talent on the roster that the window’s in no danger of closing completely. Regardless of what they do over the coming months, Houston should enter 2022 as one of the top contenders in the American League.
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Could send Kyle Tucker and Dr. Smooth to Cleveland for Civale, Clase, and Straw. Easy Peasy.
L O L
Don’t think that makes sense for either team.
Correa is almost certainly gone, and it’s not going to stop the Astros from in the 90’s wins. There’s a ton of talent on the team, and their pitching is too good not to be very competitive.
I think Aledmys Diaz could hold the position till Pena or Leon are ready. They’ll still win the division. I’d actually like to see Zack Greinke return (I’d also like to see Jake Odorizzi traded)
Powerhouse organization. Probably need to win a second or third or fourth World Championship so the cry babies can stop crying with their garbage can garbage.
This is the best organization in MLB.
Everyone wants to be a sustainable contender. The Astros are the only team to do that as MLB by-laws came in with penalties for spending over an amount on payroll.
This is the franchise that not only built a great farm system that they keep going year-after-year bringing up young talent, but they’ve had great success finding declining veterans and rehabbing their games to make them productive again. The one thing they don’t do is depend on overpaying for the top FA’s each year – rather they pretty much target one name player every year or two that will be a fit with them. A very good chance they bring Correa back on a 5-6 year contract – which is a limit that all teams should stay within.
I think the Braves have built a sustainable contender. They’ve been competitive and in the playoffs for years within your parameters.
The Houston Astros built a good farm system because they admittedly tanked from 2011-2013 losing 106, 107, 111 games respectively. This tanking “strategy” was discussed in their 2014 SI article.
They won their only World Series by illegally using video to relay to hitters the incoming pitch. Not only have the players felt the backlash from this cheating, the manager (Hinch) and the general manager (Luhnow) were removed from their positions.
Luhnow and former NASA strategist Sig Mejdal were masterminds of the Ground Control database (later hacked by former employees). Few (if any) of this original data scientist team are still with the Astros.
There’s a snowballs chance in heeell Correa signs with Houston.
Houston is not even close to being the best run organization in MLB. They tanked, cheated, and were arrogant about the whole damn thing. They’re the ugly wart on the leagues ass that nobody wants to see win.
Some people need to move on
They tanked a decade ago, that is so far in the past at this point. Tanking is the way to go if you want to build a winner, I can understand why it isn’t great to watch but I would want my team to tank if they are not going to be winning soon.
Having a crime committed against you is an argument against being a well run organization? You are really grasping for straws in building your case.
The only good point you have is the cheating scandal.
Do you really think they “aren’t even close” to being the best run organization? You can make the case for other teams, but they are certainly in the convo. They have won 10 (10!) postseason series/WC games in the last 5 years.
The Braves could surpass them but all of their success has been in the last 2 years. I personally would put the Dodgers over the Astros in terms of best run team
Plenty of teams are perennially bad without tanking, draft high and fail to build what the Astros built. The Astros achieved it with good scouting, smart drafting and development. Losing games and higher draft slots had a minimal impact. This is MLB, do you realize how many superstars were drafted later in the first round or after that? Tanking isn’t what led to success.
Considering 99% (yes an exaggeration) of the US wanted the Braves to win the World Series, there’s very little moving on. In baseball circles, we still talk about the Black Sox scandal and the Curse of the Bambino. Baseball has a long memory and for whatever it’s worth (which may not be much to you), a lot of people despise the Astros.
You’re correct, I do not think they’re close to being the best run organization. Any team that has to tank to succeed is not well run in my book. It’s bad for the game and for the league. That goes for any team.
When the Astros tanked, they were the first to do it and were mocked for it. A decade later, their success has basically broken the game as too many teams are trying to do what they did.
That’s like saying, “the big market teams aren’t true contenders because they spend more.”
That’s like saying, “the big market teams aren’t true contenders because they spend more.”
Losing games/tanking/high draft picks are absolutely what built the Astros. But, you must have good drafting and player development to turn those players into productive major leaguers. Houston has done a great job, don’t get me wrong. But, they are a typical ball club that tanked, enjoyed a window of success, but you can see that they are probably at the apex of their period of contention as their talent is signing elsewhere, little by little. You’ll start seeing more and more holes each year, and they’ll start trading their farm pieces (most likely in July) to extend their window as long as possible. Eventually, they’ll have enough bad contracts and a barren farm system that will kick off another rebuild.
Wait for it…..
That tanking came as a reset, completely flushing out an old regime that an inept owner had let stagnate. New ownership came with new management that decided, correctly, to build from the ground up.
They began with drafting Correa #1 overall that everyone in baseball, including on this site, called a cheap move to go with a lesser talent than Buxton or Appel. (How’s that look now?) They also were able to snag Lance McCullers due to their excellent strategy.
If you’re a fan of baseball, I assume you’ve seen the film Moneyball. The Astros used analytics more than any other team in baseball to start focusing on certain pitchers with high spin rates and deploying shifts more than any other team while even some of their more traditional players were openly against it. (Looking at you Cosart.)
They laid out a blueprint for success and followed it, even while stumbling on consecutive #1 overall picks in 2013-2014. They went from the lowest payroll in baseball to one that rivals baseballs elite because of the success they’ve built their franchise up to.
The fact that they’re not signing bad contracts is exactly why their talent is signing elsewhere. With players like Brantley and Gurriel getting older and likely retiring soon, I agree they are finding more and more holes, but a complete rebuild is unlikely.
If they did tho, trading Alvarez, McCullers, Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, Valdez, Garcia, Javier, etc. I couldn’t imagine the return they could get!
Well, I will agree with you on the bad contracts. That’s something I think is avoidable, at least where they pile up. So far, the Astros have done a good job there.
I’m of the belief that the mortgage the future/go all in strategy often backfires when teams that shouldn’t be mortgaging their future do just that in July. I’d rather see my team be prudent and put together a competitive team every year instead of doing the tank strategy.
I’m a Tigers fan and I saw Dombrowski mortgage the future just about every year. The bad contracts and barren farm system is exactly why the Tigers had to do a teardown and rebuild. But, we are finally coming out of it.
That is an ignorant way to look at it imo, tanking will always be a strategy. Especially in a game where you can buy a team because there is no salary cap.
Makes me respect teams such as the A’s or Rays even more so.
But to say tanking isn’t a good strategy or if a team embraces it, it makes the organization not well run doesn’t make sense to me.
It is a part of the game just like buying your way to the top like the Yankees…
Small-market teams tanking is tolerable. Large-market teams tanking is weak & gutless. Teams that can consistently spend $200MM+ and still make a nice profit can roster teams 9 years out of 10 that win. Not that difficult.
If you try to run a franchise without any talent coming through your minor league system, your destined to suck no matter how much money you throw at it.
It’s ok to re-set/re-build for a year or two, but to not try to win for 3-5 years isn’t. Teams can build a nice farm system without focusing on losing for picks. It’s just rationalizing to say tanking is the only way to build a quality farm system.
Cleveland has my respect. Under Antonetti they generally try to win every year. They re-set last year, to an extreme, I believe from a directive from Dolan, but with their PDS, farm and brainpower should contend again this season or next.
My team, the Brewers, re-built in Stearns first year, but since, has contended or been in the postseason the last 5 years. Doug Melvin jump-started the re-build in his last year with a couple of astute trades that brought in Hader, Houser and Knebel, but also had one of the worst organizational structures in baseball. A bad farm, virtually non-existent international dept, poor analytics department etc. Stearns has slowly re-built all the departments into strengths for the franchise without tanking. So I know it can get done.
people act like cheating for a WS happened 20 years ago and nobody remains from that era. I think you’ll find the majority of fans still hate the Astros for what they did, particularly since nearly all involved seemed to lack any real remorse for what they did
Ok, where to start…if you don’t know the Astros history, I’ll break it down for you. The former owner, Drayton Mclane was all in on the Major League club from 2003-2006 and sacrificed all minor league focus to do so. The Astros had a nice run of success but the pipeline turned barren.
Losing multiple draft picks due to signing bad free agents and failing to sign international talent resulted in a depleted farm system. Bagwell and Biggio retired, Berkman, Bourne and Pence were traded for pennies on the dollar and then Drayton sold the franchise.
Jeff Luhnow was a Godsend, say what you will about the sign stealing. Luhnow saw the barren farm system and the stripped away ML team and came to Crane with a blueprint. David Stearns was part of this process mind you and learned from Luhnow.
The minors are bad, the majors are bad, the scouting and development suck. He wiped the slate clean and focused on the bottom levels of the minor leagues. From there, he built success by drafting smart and trading for high floor players. Players like Hader and Houser came from the Astros, FYI.
When the minor leagues produced players like Altuve and Springer and McCullers and Correa, then the ML club focused on winning. Those are the building blocks for a competitive team. They did it the right way with where they started in their rebuild. And if you are still crying, remember Aaron Rodgers once bet his paycheck that Ryan Braun wasn’t taking steroids.
Yes Stearns did learn from Luhnow, but also spent time at Cleveland and came out of both organizations believing tanking was not necessary to win, even in baseball’s smallest market. Luhnow had more resources at his disposal than Stearns but still decided to lose on purpose, and for an extended period of time. Any GM of a team that loses 111 games needs fired on the spot. That’s well beyond tanking. I don’t even know what to call that.
And how are the Brewers doing in comparison?
I’d put the job Stearns & company have done during the time he’s been leading this franchise (‘16-‘21) up there with Tampa. His team creating one of the best PDS in the game has been a game changer for this franchise. Farm system, IFA department, analytics, all the departments that make up the critical structures of an organization have been built or re-built and have now made this organization a sleeping giant of a small-market team.
Stearns has accomplished all of this without tanking, and outside of a 1 year re-build in 2016, the team has contended every year since, including 4 consecutive playoff appearances.
They have the best, deepest, experienced, prime-aged pitching in the game, all controlled for at least 3 more years except Hader, with an improved offense all of which make this one of the teams to beat to win the WS.
@Selig Fan: Absolutely. Losing is not a prerequisite for building a good farm system.
@mostlytoasty:: How do you know the “majority” of fans hate the Astros? I don’t think that’s true.
And yet the Dodgers have only won the abomination WS in 2020.
IF, you are an astute baseball fan check out the stats on the Astro’s that year. You’ll notice that the sign stealing did not help them but made them a worse team. Made the Astro’s easier to beat (which the league needed in order to compete with them that year). The whole team apologized in public but that was not good enough for some of the moronic fan base. Their heart was not in the apology or they were not sincere. Give me a break. Don’t blame the players, blame Cora and Beltron who brought over this idea to very young players that believed in them because of there being in the league for years. Why these young players believe them, “oh the whole league is doing this”. Young minds are easy to persuade and that’s the truth! God said ” if you can’t forgive why should I forgive you” Something to think about..
I blame the players, the coaches, and the front office. They cheated, and they won. It’s really simple man. Why people want to defend that is beyond me unless they’re zealot Asterisks fans.
I don’t think the window is anywhere close to closing. They’ve got a great nucleus of talent looked up for at least 3 more years, deep pockets, and no toxic contracts.
The farm system does not have elite prospects, but it continues to churn out useful players. I don’t think the team will be bad anytime soon, and will likely have a winning record for the rest of the decade.
@ nukeg;
The Cubs started tanking 2 years after the Astros, and they started stinking 2 years ago (while Theo Epstein remains a living genius that walks on water).
The Astros have been constant contenders and were in the WS this year. They’ve done it with a different FO Head, a different manager, different coaches…….and different players.
I do not agree with what the Cubs are doing. The Rays and As have shown successful MLB models with very limited payroll and we’ve seen the Dodgers and Yankees achieve success with high payrolls. The answer should always be to make a profit while still entertaining the fans. Tanking is not entertaining the fans. Sure it’s a business, but it’s an entertainment business and if an owner can’t afford to entertain the fans, sell the team or move to a more revenue generating city. This goes for all sports and is not unique to baseball.
Are you saying that the Cubs are tanking? Because they definitely aren’t. They traded off guys who were about to decline and hit free agency anyway and they just signed Stroman.
You do realize that the Astros began tanking AFTER just being purchased for 615 Million dollars, right? The fact that they tanked had nothing to do with money, but an entire shift in team philosophy.
You, crying over three bad years a team you despise endured, makes no sense. Even if you don’t consider the unrivaled success they’ve achieved over the last five years, the fact that you are here, on an Astros article, just to troll Astros fans about why their team shouldn’t be enjoyed, leaves you as just that. A troll.
Agreed. Correa crazy not to stay in Houston. Astros doing it right.
Correa is more concerned with money than he is winning. I do not fault the man, but I hope his albatross contract goes to a different AL team.
Bro shut up the scandal is over
Is there an opportunity to buy (trade) low for Aaron Hicks? He could be an interesting CF option for Houston.
Trevor Story sounds like a great move for SS. He is coming off a down year and won’t command the kind of ridiculous contract of Correa or Seager.
Problem is that the Yankees don’t have a replacement for Hicks. If they find a centerfielder in a trade, it’s possible. But by that logic Houston could just get the same centerfielder.
The Astros already have 2 fine young CF’s. They traded Myles Straw to Cleveland during the stretch run last year. They’re not going to take on Hick’s expensive contract. That’s not how they remain competitive each year. You have them confused with teams like the Yankees.
Last losing season for the Yankees was 1992. You must have a very high bar what you consider competitive.
Though your hate for the Yankees is amusing.
I didn’t realize how many decades they have gone without a losing season!
Next year it will be thirty years if they have a winning season!!!
@ Joe says…;
You guys are really scraping the bottom of the barrel for arguments.
The Yankees have been in the top 3 of all MLB teams almost all years since free agency started. They had a bit of a fallback when the built the Jeter-led team while developing youngers in the early 90’s.
They have not been in a WS in 12 years.
Now you guys are down to bragging about how they’ve played over .500 baseball? Running up wins against rebuilding teams and those with payrolls 25% of what they have. You think this is a great accomplishment?
Maye 20 years ago I heard Greenberg on the Mike & Mike program talking about a season ticket holders that had bought 6-8 season tickets behind the home plate area, and it cost him (or his company) something like $800k. Since then there’s been quite a bit of inflation. The Yankees still sell out the seats in the bowl behind home plate. But I constantly read comments as to how those seats are often unoccupied during games unless quality opponents are playing.
Point being that those with money and in the know place little interest in going to see the Yankees beat up on crummy teams. last year they were 36-40 against teams in their division, and that included going 11-8 against a crummy Orioles team. They basically beat up on rebuilding and small market terams to get over .500. I don’t see what a great accomplishment that is.
@ Joe says…;
You also missed my initial point……
It’s the Yankees that take on high contracts trying to fill what writers and posters here see as “weaknesses” because the teams they’re discussing don’t have a name player at that position.
The Astros (and other teams) that have lower revenue streams remain competitive by bringing along young players. A year ago people here thought Kyle Tucker was not working out in RF. I’d suggest that Tucker has as good, if not a better overall year in 2021 than any position player on the Yankees team.
It’s the Yankees that go after the Joey Gallo’s and Roughned Odor’s and Anthony Rizzo’s and Greg Allen’s each year because they can’t develop their own players. When they do develop their own players again they will be real WS contenders…….and while their fans don’t understand that, I’ll betcha Hal and Cashman do.
“That’s not how they remain competitive each year. You have them confused with teams like the Yankees.”
As I said, you must have a very high bar what you consider competitive.
Agree with nukeg that the Astros aren’t the best organization in baseball. Large-market teams that tank lose my respect. They tanked for longer than 3 years as well, and had 6 consecutive losing seasons. 3 #1 picks, a #2 and a #5. Correa, Bregman and Tucker. 5-6 years to stockpile prospects.
Tampa is in a class all by themselves, followed by Cleveland, Oakland and Milwaukee. Houston rounds out the top 5.
What’s ridiculous about Seager’s contract or a similar one for Correa?
It’s way too much money for too many years. Are you looking for an answer other than that?. All these mega deals are ridiculous and teams almost always end up regretting them. Too much for any one player and dumb to be still paying top dollar when a player is well past their prime.
It’s the market rate, and no one is making teams offer these deals.
Ridiculous are the salaries pre-arb and even arb-eligible earn. Many are vastly underpaid relative to the value they provide.
Ok, so the market rate is ridiculous. Teams being forced into deals isn’t a requirement for one to think the deals are ridiculous. They are ridiculous because teams always regret them, they clog up payroll and pay players past their prime. Ridiculous. I just don’t see millionaires as underpaid. Ever. So arbitration salaries ridiculously low? No way, not buying it. As far as value, how are they worth these big deals if the contract then makes it so a team can’t afford to round out its roster?. And by what objective measure have you decided that millionaires are underpaid in relation to value? Seems arbitrary to me. 300 million a year is a ridiculous salary for anyone, and that anyone brings in such value is debatable, to say the least
MLB is a $10B+ industry. If top player salaries are ridiculous, the same would apply to owner profits and team valuations, the latter of which range from $1B to about $6B.
Pretty much every team can afford a higher payroll, but that would reduce profits, so they have instituted artificial restraints to restrict payroll expenditures.
And as much as we all would like games to be less expensive to attend, there’s no incentive for teams to lower ticket/food/merchandise/etc. prices.
Profits (revenue) and salaries are completely different subjects. Players (workers) already receive way more of a percentage of revenue than just about any other worker in any other industry. And you don’t really know what teams can and can’t afford or what revenue is necessary for owners to invest (risk) their capital. Millionaires are not underpaid.
Players are the product. Sports are not comparable to most other industries.
I believe Forbes is at least in the ballpark on franchise values, most national and local TV deal values are known, and tickets price and attendance also are known. We can get a pretty decent estimate of their revenues.
When a person’s performance would earn them a few million dollars a year in a free market but they make half a million, they’re underpaid.
Is it too late for Christmas wish lists to come through or with shipping delays is it OK to ask for just a few minor signings in the new year?
Would like to see Story and Freeman signed combined for the price Correa is demanding. Also want Greinke resigned, and if there’s any room left Jansen, Hand, Ottavino, and Miller to round out the bullpen. Oh and World Series titles not just AL pennants, but just for the next decade then someone else can have a turn. Thanks to all that agree and no apologies for those that don’t.
Ah yes, Freeman will sign with an organization that doesn’t go past 5 years on contracts when he won’t even re-sign with the Braves for anything less than 6 years
Odorizzi to the Rockies for Daniel Bard who can’t get anybody out at Coors anymore but is decent elsewhere.
I love my team. The cheating scandal has been pretty interesting because jerks have basically chased off Astros fans from most MLB forums. At the same time, the team keeps winning.
Winning with a payroll in the top 4-7 of MLB teams is nothing to brag about. Luhnow was a brilliant GM, a forward thinker to an extreme and hired a lot of smart people, so I’ll give him that, but his lack of character caught up to him.
As a large-market team with an owner willing to spend, coming from a team (Cardinals) who’s fans would never allow the FO to tank, Luhnow took the easy way out, by tanking, disregarding the suffering inflicted on the fan base.
What they should have done they didn’t— give up the title. But Crane not only didn’t do that, he disrespected everyone by giving a half-hearted apology and not admitting the cheating had any affect on the outcome of the postseason.
That organization has hurt that fan base in a bad way.
What you don’t realize or don’t acknowledge is that they are NOT a large market team.
For revenue sharing purposes, the league ranks all teams by market size.
According to Forbes magazine articles, the Astros are 14th and actually would qualify for revenue sharing if their local income fell enough.
Despite being in a city with the 4th largest population, their media footprint and demographics are much smaller.
FYI the top 12 teams are ineligible for revenue sharing based on market size no matter how small their local income gets.
What everyone remembers is the scandal and the tanking unfortunately. But what everyone seems to forget is that before Jim Crane bought the team for over 650 million dollars the Astros were REQUIRED to move to the American League after spending there entire history in the National League. That move, along with aging players, and an old owner that had the mindset of “add a few big names and gut the farm” is what made it necessary to trade off the big names and completely start over. You can’t have a successful business model( competitive National League team) with no farm system and then get told you have to change everything about it without ripping it all down and starting over. It does upset me that our 2017 championship is tainted. But what upsets me even more is all the holier than thou fans that think there own teams were not doing the same type( maybe not to the extent) of things the Astros were doing. 3 trips to the WS, 5 ALDS appearances in 6 years, quit complaining about 1 year and recognize this team is a successful run organization. You don’t hear us belly aching about A Rod and his Roided up Yankees of the 90’s still do you?
You make some good points justanotherstrosfan.
It’s not the fact of tearing it down before building it back up. It’s the length of time purposely trying to lose that’s the problem, especially for a team with a top 10 revenue. 6 consecutive losing seasons with that type of revenue is cowardly. Losing 111 games is heartless. That fan base is better than that.
We have that type of revenue now, but when it was sold,we didn’t. Fans had stopped going to see the team play under the old ownership.When you have Ayers like Carlos Lee who refused to run out a routine ground ball then say on national tv he doesn’t get paid to run to first, he gets paid to hit home runs, it puts a rather sour taste in one’s mouth. I have been a lifelong Astros fan but even I couldn’t stomach that. Dayton McClaine was a joke of an owner who only cared about his profits. He regularly gutted what little talent we had in the minor leagues for players on either a rental contract or with 1 more year remaining. We stayed in the payoff hunt because at the time the NL Central was a weaker division. If you look at the revenue from 2001-2011( when they were sold) it was about the same amount as it is now. The team was sold in 2011 and made the playoffs for the first time in 15 years 4 years later. Most of the team that was on the 2015 roster was either traded for, drafted by, or signed by the new ownership. I do NOT agree with tanking for the sake of revenue,but if it takes tanking for a couple years to rebuild a barren farm system, and then put a product on the field that’s going to COMPETE for several years to come then I think it’s ok. Remember, the Astros farm system was ranked 23rd by Baseball Prospectus in 2011. It had the future stud JD Martinez in it’s rankings as well as Johnathan Villar and Jordan Lyles to name just a few.
Houston is well within the top 10 media markets and metro areas. That was also the case in 2011. They are and have been a large-market team. And it was more than a “couple of years” tank. Forgive me for not liking your owner’s actions and words, the same with some of your players from the cheating era as well. I feel bad for you and the Astros fans.
Actually, according to Bleacher Report, that are a mid market team listed at exactly #15. I don’t agree with the way the scandal was handled from a Ayers perspective at all. Let me make that clear. But my point to all this was in regards to the tanking aspect of it. Also, alot of flack has surrounded the players line ALL of them did it. To a certain degree, they did. There have been numerous studies into it already that showed Altuve, Bregman, and several others benefited theLEAST OF ALL the players. Also,the same players have shown that they still can and do compete at an elite level. The one player that comes to mind that benefitted the most was Marwin Gonzalez, who went to Minnesota and was a FLOP! The point is, it was over 5 years ago and everyone still wants to bring that up when the Astros are mentioned. BTW, Stearns was HOU asst GM under Lundhow before he was hired by the Brewers and turned that franchise into playoff contenders as well.
Forbes has them at 12, so I’ll say safely not within the top 10, so I was wrong. And yes Stearns did work for Luhnow, and when hired by MKE, must have told Attanasio he wouldn’t need to tank to win.
If the ‘90s Braves are considered “choke artists” then so are these Astros.
No mention of Pedro Leon?
The idea that the Astros intentionally lost is patently false.
The players on the field played as hard as they could. The manager made moves and set lineups hoping and trying to win.
All they did was refuse to spend money for several years.
They traded away expensive veterans and compiled young talent.
Young talent sometimes needs time to develop so the record was awful for 3 or 4 years.
The team did not have the talent to win so they made a choice that resulted in prolonged success down the road. I applauded it.
And every game they played hard trying to win.
Manager tried to win—yes. Players tried to win —yes. GM tried to win—wrong. You don’t roster a team that loses 111 games by accident.
Luhnow was given an unwinnable hand. There was no way the team and farm system he inherited could win within 1-2 years.
They had lost over 100 games before he was hired.
Their leading HR hitter had 18
J.D. Martinez led them in RBI with 55
Their “Ace” was 11-11 with a 3.76ERA.
Baseball Anerica ranked Their farm system 18th. Top prospect was Jon Singleton.
He played to win- just not immediately
He inherited a 100 loss team without enough talent to compete so he decided the young veterans he did have would be past their prime by the time he was able to compile enough talent to compete so he traded them or nontendered them in order to get and develop more talent.
Cold blooded and gutsy. And brilliant.
Even today more players currently in MLB that first signed 2011-2019 were originally signed by Jeff Luhnow than any other GM.
If you are looking at Nick Ahmed as a possibility, you might as well throw Kevin Newman in the mix as well. Astros could probably get him on the cheap.
But if you have no talent in the minor leagues to make a trade for and big names don’t want to sign on a rebuilding club, your kinda forced to put the players on the field you have. Look at Altuve, he was called up from AA because we had NO ONE to play second base. If we did, do you think he would have completely skipped AAA ball? Correa and Bregman both were semi rushed through the system as well to try and put a competitive team on the field. The tanking was needed in order to stock draft picks that could help us in the NEAR future. Most draft picks either never make it to the show or take 4-6 yrs to do so. Not like we did it year in and year out for decades like some teams just to pocket the profits.
Luhnow was a brilliant GM and could have rostered better teams all throughout the tanking years if he wanted to. Waiver claims, trades, smart, cheap short-term FA signings etc., all could have been done to be at a minimum somewhat competitive.
But that would have set back the overall timeframe.
How many teams run out a lineup of waiver wire quality players year after year and simply never get better.
Getting rid of the mediocre players and not spending that money is what convinced Crane to spend money once the young players had taken their lumps and were ready.
They made the playoffs much sooner than anyone could have expected (2015) in part because they added payroll.