A series of pre-lockout reports suggested there could be a broad sell-off coming in Oakland. Barring the introduction of a fairly high salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement, the A’s seem likely to move some of their costlier players in an effort to trim payroll.
That sell-off has yet to begin, as the trade market didn’t pick up a ton of steam before the transactions freeze. It’s generally expected that the A’s could be among the most active teams coming out of the lockout, with their pair of star infielders (Matt Olson and Matt Chapman) and trio of starters with dwindling club control (Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas) drawing plenty of attention from rival fanbases. Bullpen-needy teams could also look to Oakland, in particular to closer Lou Trivino.
A former 11th-round pick, Trivino has been a bullpen workhorse since making his major league debut in 2018. He’s never required an injured list stint and has eclipsed 60 innings in each of the last three full seasons. Despite taking on significant workloads, Trivino has been consistently effective, working to a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his four campaigns. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a 3.34 mark over 97 frames, holding opponents to a .211/.305/.313 slash line.
ERA estimators haven’t quite been as bullish as those strong results. While he posted plus strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers early in his career, both have ticked down in recent seasons. His 21.6% strikeout percentage last year was more than two points lower than average for relievers, while his 10.2% swinging strike rate fell below the league mark for the first season of his career. And Trivino has never had great control, walking batters at a 10% clip or greater each season.
In large part due to that unspectacular strikeout and walk profile, both SIERA and FIP have pegged him closer to a high-3.00’s ERA type. He’s benefitted from a rather low opponents’ batting average on balls in play, no doubt in part due to the strong defenses the A’s run out behind him. Yet Trivino has also done his part to avoid especially damaging contact, particularly when put in favorable situations.
In each of his four seasons, the righty’s average exit velocity allowed has been a touch lower than the league mark. His performance becomes more notable when isolating Trivino’s performance against same-handed batters. Righties have an 86.1 MPH average exit velocity against him over the past two years, a mark that’s among the bottom quarter of pitchers leaguewide (minimum 500 offerings). Thanks in large part to that contact suppression, the Pennsylvania native has dominated righty hitters. Since the start of 2020, they’ve mustered only a .169/.261/.232 line against him. Trivino’s strikeout rate against righties is a solid 24.9%, and he’s induced ground-balls at a strong 47% clip.
As one might guess, he’s been far less effective against opposite-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .271/.367/.431 against Trivino in that time. His 20.5% strikeout percentage and 88.5 MPH average exit velocity when at a platoon disadvantage are well worse than his numbers against righties. His walk rate has a similar discrepancy. With the platoon advantage, it’s a manageable 9.3%; against left-handers, he’s walked an untenable 13.3% of opponents.
Those platoon splits probably make him an imperfect fit for a defined closer’s role, particularly in a less pitcher-friendly park than Oakland’s Coliseum and/or in front of a lesser defense. Trivino could be a highly valuable situational option, though, a weapon for a manager to call on against lineups’ top right-handed bats. The three-batter minimum makes it impossible to shield him from lefties entirely, yet an acquiring club could at least mitigate his platoon troubles by avoiding using him against opponents’ best left-handed hitters when possible.
Trivino wouldn’t be as impactful a pickup as any of Oakland’s position player or rotation stalwarts. He’s a good reliever with a particularly strong skill for handling righty bats, though. With essentially every contender on the hunt for bullpen help, he should draw interest coming out of the lockout, and it stands to reason the A’s would be amenable to moving him.
While Trivino’s $2.9MM projected arbitration salary isn’t onerous, he’s already 30 years old and down to his final three years of club control. The A’s aren’t likely to go into a full rebuild, but even if they’re only entertaining a one or two-year step back, Trivino should be available. His arbitration salaries will continue to rise over the coming seasons, particularly if he remains in the closer’s role in Oakland and accumulates a number of saves.
Barring a dominant 2022 showing, his trade value probably won’t increase over the coming months. Even if the A’s were to retool quickly and have a contending roster in place again by 2023 or 2024, Trivino’s arbitration price by that point may be too high for their liking. He probably won’t be the first player moved out of Oakland and certainly won’t grab the most headlines, but Trivino looks like a strong trade candidate whenever teams are permitted to again discuss MLB deals.
I don’t think this guy will fetch a lot on his own but I could see the A’s attaching him in a larger deal. If some team is reluctant to give up a top prospect in an Olson trade or something throwing in this reliever might make them more comfortable. Everyone needs relief pitching.
Sorry, while he may not return a lot, a teams closer is not a player that just gets thrown into a trade.
He has never been a true closer. More like a fairly good setup guy the first half of the season, and then an absolute trainwreck. Please trade him.
This guy’s bad swinging strike rate, bad walk rate and 3.94 ERA proves he’s no closer. All teams would have to do to get him to blow saves is pinch hit with a bunch of lefties in the 9th. The article literally says, “Those platoon splits probably make him an imperfect fit for a defined closer role.” I guess what your saying is after Rosenthal went down the A’s used him as a closer. I didn’t realize that but it doesn’t mean he should be treated like a closer on the market. If they used him in that capacity it was only out of emergency and I’m sure they hope he isn’t their closer next year.
What I really meant was let’s say the A’s were going to trade someone like Olson to another team and wanted their top prospect in return. If the team doesn’t want to give up their very best prospect the A’s might be able to throw Trivino in the deal to push it over the top. It might be the difference in getting a teams #2 prospect and getting their #1 prospect. Getting a better prospect by throwing in a pitcher with a 3.94 ERA who has control issues and can’t get out lefties is definitely worth it.
Trivino wouldn’t even be a setup man on a lot of teams. There’s probably a few teams that wouldn’t even use him in the 7th inning. If it gets a better prospect the A’s should throw Trivino in a trade whether they used him as a closer at times last year or not.
I agree. The guy who disagrees, saying “closers don’t just get thrown in”, probably isn’t factoring in the fact that Trivino most likely won’t be a closer for whoever he ends up with, imho.
I do disagree, because while he may not be a closer where he’s traded, on paper, he is the current closer on the A’s.
He won’t be a throw in for just that reason. He has more value to the A’s, than the team that wants him ” thrown in.” Kimbrel wasn’t the closer once he got to the Sox, but the Cubs valued him as one in the trade return required. The Cubs didn’t lower the ask because the Sox planned on using him in set up. No, Trevino is not Kimbrel. I’m not saying he will or should get that type of return. I’m saying any team that considers a pitcher to be their likely closer, their best bullpen option, is not going to value them lightly enough to be a throw in. He may be traded, but for a return of some value.
I mean… It depends on your definition of “thrown in.” You guys say it like it means give away a player for free. When I said “throwing in this reliever” I clearly meant if it got the A’s a better package. I meant if the A’s shoot for the stars in a trade but the other team doesn’t agree. Throwing this guy into the deal would be worth it if it gets the other team to give up better prospects or players than they would otherwise.
No one is suggesting the A’s view this guy as worthless and should give him away for nothing. At the same time to turn down a package of very high prospects just because they want to hold onto this guy would be foolish. Keeping a player like this should never be the difference between getting the best prospects and taking lesser prospects.
You guys are getting to hung up on the phrase “throw in.” It’s a figure of speech and it is way overused. No team ever gives away a player for free just to make them a “throw in.” The A’s should only trade this guy if he makes a difference in the return another team is willing to give them.
My point was the A’s might be able to trick another team into thinking this guy is worth the difference. A lot of times a team is reluctant to trade great pitching prospects. Some of those teams soften up in their stance if they think they are getting a “good” major league pitcher in return.
Obviously no team ever gives away a player for free. I don’t quite understand why so many people act like that’s what the word “throw in” means.
IMO a throw in is when a team makes an offer but it isn’t their top offer. They would be willing to “throw in” another player they would rather keep but don’t admit it at first just to see if the other team will bite. Then, when the other balks, the first team throws that player into the deal to sweeten the pot a little bit and see if the team takes the slightly increased offer. That’s all it means.
Wanting to keep this guy should never be the reason the A’s fail to make a major trade that could really help their future team. Making him a “throw in” does not mean they are giving him away for nothing. It means he could be the difference from getting what they need and getting nothing. If that’s ever the case, the A’s should definitely throw him in the deal to push it over the line.
I didn’t mean a “throw in” meaning he’s a nobody. I mean throw in as in to get a better package.
Meh it is the A’s they are trying to cut payroll and are probably ok this year with the mascot shooting balls out his trunk for a year.
Implementation of a “fairly high salary floor” would be the worst thing baseball could do. All of Oakland’s players would be unmovable. The City of Oakland would realize the owner would be forced to sell the team. The political pressure would be off construction of a new ballpark at Howard Terminal while the city waits for the next owner hoping for a better deal or the sale to out of town buyers.
That’s literally 100% untrue, like all of it is wrong, its a word salad of idiocy.
It would be the best thing for the A’s – all it would mean is Fisher would be forced to give Olson and Chapman 10/300 deals and nothing else would change. Grow up and stop telling lies as if they are truths. Fake news.
Lou is such a bullpen workhorse name
FWIW Steamer projects Lou Trivino with a 2022 ERA of 4.21, WHIP of 1.37 and a WAR of 0.0 in 65 appearances:
fangraphs.com/players/lou-trivino/15043/stats?posi…
Marcel projects Trivino with a 2022 ERA of 3.97 and WHIP of 1.29 in 68 innings.
baseball-reference.com/players/t/trivilo01.shtml
Estimators haven’t been bullish on his work, ever. So those “guesses” mean very little as they have not been correct on him so far. Besides, there is more value than ever on a pitcher who can be depended on to take the ball 60 times a season. He keeps the team from testing their depth. Lots of value in that.
I know that the A’s are expected to have a fire sale, but Trivino wasn’t one I have huge expectations for…
They arent even actually going to have a fire sale, its literally one of Bassitt or Manaea and they will reload at go for the West again. This entire story isnt based on anything specific someone from the team has said, just some writer trying to get clicks.
I suspect they have a trade or two lined up, which might be why they have 6 open rosters spots on their 40. But they really have to wait until after the CBA, as they would obviously stand to change course the most if there’s changes in revenue sharing, and/or a salary floor. If they had a floor, suddenly they really don’t want to trade Olson/Chapman. Whereas if things are mostly the same, they might have the Guardians or Yankees lined up on a trade that sends one out and takes back 3 or 4 players on the 40.
Three years of control and a $2.9M. They can listen to offers, but not real reason to move him.
Theres no real reason to move anyone except maybe Bassitt and Manaea. The window is still open, its too early to call it closed – the media just loves to write “A’s in sell mode” articles every single offseason no matter if they ever make moves or not. Cant teach these dogs new tricks smh
I definitely could see him getting moved, but he probably doesn’t have any trade value because analytics hate his numbers and his salary is rather high for his production. He likely will bring in a lottery ticket or two, or maybe will be attached to a larger deal.
Good reliever goood article
I thought Bob Melvin used him too much , but what else was he to do when the whole bullpen was blowing games . I’m for moving him .
He might be worth some decent return now, but that return will go up geometrically at the trade deadline this year. A closer, relatively cheap, with years of control remaining? Especially if the playoffs expand (likely), GMs will be falling over themselves to acquire him.
And of course, with those larger playoffs, the A’s could very well still be in it (they ain’t dead yet).
In other words, hold for now.
Am I the only one that remembers Trivino’s meltdown in Toronto? I’m sure the Blue Jays fans remember.
I seem to have forgotten the names of all those relief pitchers that never had a bad game. Please refresh my memory.
Sour Patch Lou.
First he’s sour
then he’s sweet.
Mets and A’s hook up. Chapman,Manaea and Trivino for Davis,Smith,Szapucki,Lee and a low prospect
Chapman plays 3b this year, SP and a reliever the A’s gat a 1b, 3b,a CF a SP and a prospect
That trade doesn’t really make the A’s better though. It’s just a big series of downgrades for them. That’s the type of trade the commissioner should step in and void.
They want to reduce payroll again and again, , they always do, none of the players that I mentioned make any $$
But it makes the team worse without adding any real prospect capital. Exactly the type trade that should be disallowed. It would be disgraceful. A top prospect like Baty or Mauricio would have to be included to justify it.
that trade would never happen. The A’s want to reduce payroll I know, but they wouldn’t accept an offer of one solid player, an okay prospect, a reclamation project and an AAAA player plus a lottery ticket. A more reasonable trade would be Chapman, Manaea, Trivino for Davis, Baty, J.T. Ginn, Lee and Carlos Cortes. That might not even be enough.
@jvent
Can we agree that if the A’s are moving those players, they would be rebuilding? Can we also agree that Davis, Smith and McNeil (the players that don’t seem to fit the Mets roster) are not players that a rebuilding team would be targeting? If not rebuilding, there is little reason to move all of them, as none of those A’s players is considered to be expensive at their current contract.
I know it’s not your main point, but I just don’t get when folks say McNeil doesn’t fit the Mets roster. He’s an absolute asset as a starter at either second or third and plays the corners too. He’s a main piece for them, he absolutely fits. He’s better than Escobar, who everyone seems to think is replacing him somehow and Cano is the player they don’t really need.
That is a lopsided trade yes the Mets would live that trade but it would be terrible for the A’s. For that trade to work the Mets would have to add in Ginn plus another low level property then maybe but still I think other teams would easily beat that offer.
“Love”
Nightmare level deal – Beane will eat the entire Mets farm plus at least one young star if he gave up those 3 to them.
poverty franchise
I think Trivino will possibly be packaged with one or more of the bigger names for Oakland that’ll be traded. I’m thinking that Trivino won’t be the closer for whoever he ends up with though.
The logic just isnt there for the A’s to have a fire sale, this is an entirely media-driven narrative, no one from the team has said anything other than “we will listen to all trade offers” which most teams do.
If not for the owner, you could only justify trading bassist, manaea due to impending free agency. The other players have multiple years of control left. They could contend next year if they invested in fixing the bullpen, maybe another outfielder, middle infielder and one additional solid SP but we know that won’t happen
The A’s are definitely a good team. Absolutely no real reason for them to sell off guys like Chapman or Olsen.
The Phillies should be all over everyone of these trade pieces and do whatever it takes to get the closer and at least 1 starting pitcher and either Olsen or Chapman