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Lou Trivino To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Yankees right-hander Lou Trivino will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, per Jack Curry of the YES Network.

It’s an unfortunate blow to Trivino, 31, who will now be out of action for the remainder of this season and at least the first half of next year as well. Given the typical 14 to 18 month recovery timeline for TJS, he likely won’t pitch in the majors again until the second half of the 2024 campaign.

He has already spent the entirety of this season on the injured list, having been shut down due to elbow issues in March. The club recently transferred him to the 60-day injured list as he was going to get a second opinion on the elbow, which seemed to suggest a notable absence was upcoming and has now indeed come to fruition.

Trivino was drafted by the Athletics and had much success with them. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 231 innings with a 3.70 ERA. His 10.9% walk rate was certainly on the high side but he struck out 23.9% of batters faced and got grounders at a 46.1% clip. He also earned some high leverage work in that time, racking up 26 saves and 48 holds.

2022 was a strange year for the righty, however, as he was sitting on a 6.47 ERA through the end of July but that was largely a mirage. His strikeout rate was up to 28.7%, his walks were down to 8.9% and his ground ball rate was up to 53.2%. The inflated ERA was undoubtedly influenced by a sky-high .451 batting average on balls in play and 67.3% strand rate, leading to a 3.83 FIP and 2.89 SIERA.

The Yankees believed enough in the track record and the peripherals that they acquired Trivino alongside Frankie Montas at the deadline last year in an attempt to bolster both their rotation and bullpen in one move, both for the stretch last year and going forward since neither player was a rental. Trivino pitched well last year, a 1.66 ERA after the deal, but will now be missing 2023 entirely. Montas battled shoulder issues last year and struggled when on the hill, then required surgery in the offseason that’s prevented him from appearing at all so far this year.

That’s obviously a frustrating development for the Yanks, who sent four prospects to Oakland in the deal and have reaped very little from it so far. Montas could still return this year but is a free agent at season’s end. Trivino could still be retained via arbitration in 2024 but is making $4.1MM this year and seems like a non-tender candidate since he’ll be missing at least half of the upcoming campaign.

Yankees Option Franchy Cordero, Select Jake Bauers

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11:46am: The team announced they have indeed selected the contract of Bauers. To make room on the 40-man roster, reliever Lou Trivino was transferred to the 60-day IL.

7:59am: The Yankees have optioned outfielder Franchy Cordero to Triple-A, the team announced. A corresponding move will come before tonight’s match with the Rangers, but there’s been some reporting that the team will select Triple-A outfielder Jake Bauers. Aaron Judge’s injury status will also likely play a part in the Yankees’ next move, with the team awaiting a report on the MRI on his hip, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic.

Cordero, always a player with tantalizing power, belted four home runs in his first seven games for the Yankees this season, and looked to be staking a claim for the team’s problematic left field spot. However, since April 13, Cordero has gone just 1-for-28 with 13 strikeouts and no walks. That’s left him with an overall line on the season of .151/.182/.396 with four home runs.

The Yankees signed Cordero to a split major/minor league contract late in the spring which paid him $1MM in the big leagues and $180K in the minors. Cordero has bounced around a few teams since making his debut for the Padres in 2017, with teams looking to unlock the raw power which makes him such an enticing player. Yet at every stop Cordero’s struggled to make enough contact to find that power, as his career .215/.282/.387 line suggests.

With Cordero heading back to Triple-A, the team looks set to take a chance on Bauers, a player who’s struggled over three big league seasons but is hitting .304/.448/.797 with nine home runs in 87 plate appearances at Triple-A this season.

It is a little concerning that the Yankees came out of last season with a clear need in left field yet find themselves still without a clear answer one month into the new season. Oswaldo Cabrera has seen the most time there, but he’s limped to just a .213/.238/.300 line this season. Veteran Aaron Hicks has been even worse, posting a .135/.220/.135 line in 41 plate appearances.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Trivino, Loaisiga

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9:51pm: Judge said postgame he expected to be sidelined for a few days but downplayed any significant concern (Boland link).

9:23pm: AL MVP Aaron Judge left tonight’s game in Texas in the bottom of the fourth inning. The Yankees later informed reporters that Judge was experiencing some discomfort in his right hip (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Oswaldo Cabrera came off the bench to take over right field.

The club will surely provide more on Judge’s status in the near future. At the moment, there’s nothing to suggest it was more than a precautionary move to keep the star slugger healthy. Judge has been in the starting lineup for all 26 of New York’s games. While he’s not hitting at last year’s superhuman level, the four-time All-Star has a well above-average .261/.352/.511 batting line with six home runs in 108 trips to the plate.

Elsewhere on the Yankee roster, manager Aaron Boone provided reporters with injury updates on a pair of relievers before tonight’s contest. Right-hander Lou Trivino is headed for a second opinion on his injured elbow, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Trivino hasn’t pitched this season because of an elbow sprain. The Yankees had announced early in Spring Training that he’d be out into May but that timeline was further pushed back when he recently experienced renewed soreness. The 31-year-old met with Yankees’ physician Christopher Ahmad yesterday.

Acquired from the A’s alongside Frankie Montas last summer, Trivino threw 21 2/3 innings of 1.66 ERA ball down the stretch for New York. The former Oakland closer had been quite effective from 2020-21 but was off to a rough first half to the ’22 campaign before righting the ship in the Bronx. He could be a medium to high-leverage arm in the Yankee relief corps if healthy but the mention of a second opinion for an elbow concern raises the possibility of a long-term absence.

Fellow righty Jonathan Loáisiga has been out since the second week of the season with inflammation in his throwing elbow. While it doesn’t seem there’s a ton of long-term concern there, Boone told reporters the 28-year-old was experiencing some soreness after a throwing session yesterday (via Erik Boland of Newsday). The club hasn’t provided many specifics, though it’s possible Loáisiga finds himself a little behind schedule in his rehab process as a result.

Boone: Yankees Working On “Potential Deal” To Add Pitcher

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The Yankees are working on a “potential” deal to add a pitcher to the staff, manager Aaron Boone told reporters prior to today’s season opener (Twitter link, with video, via SNY). Boone didn’t futher tip his hand as to whether the Yankees are talking to a free agent or discussing a possible trade. However, they’re opening the season with 14 position players and 12 pitchers on their roster, reflective of both a potentially incoming arm and an off-day on the schedule Friday.

“We’re going with just seven guys in the ’pen, obviously with an off-day tomorrow, where we have a potential deal going that’ll probably change that moving forward in the next day or two,” said Boone. “…A pitcher could be in play for us, that we add or not. Whether or not we do, we’d be in a position to pull from the minor leagues, too.”

New York’s pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries, evidenced by the sheer number of players who are beginning the season on the injured list. The Yankees announced today that lefty Carlos Rodon (forearm strain) and righties Luis Severino (lat strain), Lou Trivino (elbow strain), Tommy Kahnle (biceps tendinitis) and Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery) have all been placed on the 15-day injured list. Right-handers Scott Effross (2022 Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (2022 Tommy John surgery) both were placed on the 60-day IL. Center fielder Harrison Bader (oblique strain) and catcher Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm surgery) are both on the 10-day IL.

Also of note from Boone’s media session today, the skipper indicated that not only will Oswaldo Cabrera get the Opening Day start in left field — but he’ll open the season as the team’s primary left fielder (Twitter link via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). Aaron Hicks will still get some time against left-handed pitching, and Cabrera’s versatility means he’ll occasionally line up at other spots, but it seems the current plan is for him to be the most frequently used option in left field.

The 24-year-old Cabrera made his big league debut in 2022, slashing .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances. Originally expected to be in more of a versatile infield/outfield utility role, the switch-hitting Cabrera seized a more prominent role with a monster spring showing. In 57 plate appearances, he batted .340/.386/.623 with four homers, three doubles, four walks (7%) and 10 strikeouts (17.5%).

The Yankees also confirmed some previously known/reported moves. Top prospect Anthony Volpe’s contract has been formally selected, and he’ll open the season as the Yankees’ primary shortstop. Right-hander Jhony Brito was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and is expected to start the team’s third game of the season on Sunday. And, as was widely reported yesterday, the Yankees signed outfielder/first baseman Franchy Cordero to a Major League contract and formally added him to their Opening Day roster.

Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino To Begin Season On IL

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters this morning, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that pitchers Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, and Lou Trivino will all begin the season on the injured list. Rodon is suffering from a mild forearm strain and will be shut down for 7 to 10 days, though Cashman notes that Rodon has already undergone an MRI and has no UCL damage. Kahnle was previously reported to be suffering from biceps tendinitis, while Trivino is suffering from a mild elbow sprain and will be out until May. This news is a significant blow to the Yankees pitching staff, which has already lost right-hander Frankie Montas to shoulder surgery.

Rodon figured to pitch at the top of the Yankees rotation alongside Gerrit Cole after signing a six-year, $162MM contract with the club this offseason. That contract stood as a clear gamble on Rodon staying healthy going forward, given his lengthy injury history. 2022 was just the second year of Rodon’s career where he had managed to pitch more than 140 innings, and it was the first such season since 2016. While Rodon’s newest injury (which Cashman describes as “not serious”) is currently only expected to force him to sit down for a week or so, it certainly brings to mind his career-long injury struggles. That said, Rodon has been among the best starters in baseball when healthy, as shown by his sterling 2.67 ERA (157 ERA+), 2.42 FIP, 33.9% strikeout rate, and 0.998 WHIP over the past two seasons.

Kahnle, who returned to the club this offseason on a two-year, $11.5MM contract, has managed just 13 2/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season, battling injuries ever since. That said, he has stood among the better relievers in the game when healthy, sporting a 3.44 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.16 FIP in 188 1/3 innings of work since the beginning of the 2016 season. Kahnle’s absence seems likely to be a shorter one than that of Trivino, who the Yankees acquired at the trade deadline last year from the A’s alongside Montas. Trivino pitched exceptionally down the stretch following his trade to the Bronx, sporting a 1.66 ERA (238 ERA+) and 3.34 FIP over the course of his 21 2/3 innings of work in New York. Both Trivino and Kahnle figured to feature prominently in the back of the Yankees bullpen this season, particularly as sidearming reliever Scott Effross is set to miss the 2023 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Though this trio of injuries certainly weakens the pitching depth available to the Yankees as they open the year, they still have competent options capable of stepping up and filling for the injured hurlers while they are on the shelf. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt were already figuring to battle for the fifth starter spot following Montas’s injury, and Rodon’s injury leaves the door open for both players to make the Opening Day rotation. That being said, the Yankees have little in the way of starting depth remaining should the rotation sustain another injury. Cashman mentions Deivi Garcia as one potential option, as noted by Erik Boland of Newsday Sports, but it would certainly make sense for the club to consider bringing in an external depth option such as Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer on a minor league deal, as well.

The bullpen picture is significantly rosier, however, as the Yankees still can rely on the likes of Clay Holmes, Michael King, and Wandy Peralta in the late innings of games. These injuries could also provide right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga an opportunity to work his way back into the late-inning mix for the Yankees after a difficult 2022 season where he posted a 4.15 ERA (95 ERA+) in 48 innings while sporting a reduced strikeout rate of just 18.2% and an inflated walk rate of 9.4%. Should the Yankees wish to acquire additional bullpen depth, there’s a few options still available on the free agent market, including right-hander Corey Knebel and former Yankee Zack Britton.

That being said, any external additions would likely require a change of heart regarding the upper limit of the club’s payroll or a trade to create payroll space. The Yankees have, to this point, seemed unwilling to surpass the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which stands at $293MM. That’s a line the club is pressed right up against, with RosterResource estimating their current 2023 payroll at roughly $292.5MM for luxury tax purposes. While third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks were seen as the most likely candidates for a salary-clearing trade this offseason, most clubs would likely balk at adding such significant salary to the books just three weeks before Opening Day, making someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa a more likely option for the Yankees to deal should they try and swing a salary-clearing trade.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

Latest

  • The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
  • The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.

Earlier Deals

  • The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
  • The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
  • The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
  • The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
  • The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
  • The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
  • The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
  • The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
  • The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
  • The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
  • The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
  • The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.

Yankees Acquire Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino

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The Yankees have announced that they have acquired Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the Athletics. In exchange, the Athletics will receive pitchers JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina, as well as second baseman Cooper Bowman.

Next to Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, Montas has been seen as one of the better starting pitchers available at the trade deadline. The Yankees had been connected to Castillo, but he was traded to the Mariners in recent days. The Yanks evidently turned their attentions to Montas in order to satisfy their desire for boosting their rotation.

Montas has been a solid member of Oakland’s rotation for years, first establishing himself in 2018. Despite a down year in 2020, Montas still owns a career 3.73 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. Just looking at what he’s done since the start of the 2021 season, he’s been on an even better level, logging a 3.30 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% grounder rate. He’s been worth 6.1 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs.

Despite being a solid performer, Montas has seemed like an inevitable trade candidate for quite some time now. As the 2021 season finished and the offseason began, the A’s were widely reported to be planning a massive sell-off of any player making a significant salary and/or approaching free agency. Montas was frequently cited among the trade candidates, next to Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. Those four latter names were all moved between this winter’s lockout and the beginning of the season, but Montas stayed. He’s making just over $5MM this season, making him the cheapest of that group, but he only has one further season of club control remaining. Given that the A’s aren’t likely to return to competition in that time, it made sense to make him available to other clubs.

The Yankees have been incredibly healthy in terms of their rotation this year, with their front five of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino all staying healthy for the first three-plus months of the season. As such, the rotation as a whole has logged 567 innings, the third-most in the majors, while also posting a 3.37 ERA that’s third in the league. However, Severino landed on the IL a couple of weeks ago with shoulder tightness. While he’s been out, Domingo German has made two starts but has an 8.22 ERA in those. When Montas reports to the team, he will likely bump German back to the minors or a long-relief role. If Severino can get back on the mound while everyone else is still healthy, the Yanks might have to make a tough decision about to fit everyone into the mix, but that would be a good problem to have in the future.

The Yankees weren’t content to merely upgrade their rotation, however, also adding Trivino into the bullpen, their second such addition of the day, following their earlier acquisition of Scott Effross. Yankee fans might see Trivino’s 6.47 ERA and scoff, but there’s actually more to like under the hood. Trivino’s been the victim of a .451 batting average on balls in play, despite that number being around .250 in the two previous seasons. His 28.7% strikeout rate and 52.3% ground ball rates on the year are both career highs while his 8.9% walk rate is a career low. As such, all of the advanced metrics feel that batted ball luck is masking his true talents, with Trivino currently sporting a 4.29 xERA, 3.84 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 2.89 SIERA. He’s making a modest $3MM salary this year and can be retained via arbitration for another two seasons.

The Yankees’ bullpen seemed unstoppable for much of the season but has since hit some snags. Chad Green required Tommy John surgery and won’t be back this year. Michael King is also done for the year after suffering an elbow fracture. The once-untouchable Aroldis Chapman has struggled since coming off the IL. Clay Holmes, who seemed to replace Chapman as the unhittable monster in the bullpen, has also come back down to earth in recent weeks. With the additions of Effross and Trivino, the Yankees have given themselves some extra options for late-game duty.

The A’s have already completely remade their system this year with the aforementioned trades of Bassitt, Manaea, Olson and Chapman, and this deal will allow them to bring in four more fresh faces. The highlight of the bunch is probably Waldichuk, 24, who is enjoying a tremendous breakout season. Selected by the Yankees in the fifth round in 2019, he has split his time this year between Double-A and Triple-A. In 17 starts between the two levels, he’s thrown 76 1/3 innings with a 2.71 ERA and incredible 36.5% strikeout rate. The 10.4% walk rate is a little above-average, but there’s still plenty to be excited about in that performance. The southpaw was recently ranked the #5 prospect in the Yankees’ system by Baseball America.

Sears, 26, came in 20th on that same list at BA. He made his MLB debut this year and has looked good so far, notching a 2.05 ERA in his first 22 big league innings. He’s only gotten strikeouts at an 18.1% clip in that time, but is much better at getting punchouts in the minors. In 43 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 1.67 ERA with a 33.7% strikeout rate, along with a 4.3% walk rate.

Medina, 23, has also been considered one of the top Yankee prospects by BA, oscillating between the #7 and #11 spot from 2018 to the present. He’s made 17 starts in Double-A this year, throwing 72 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 50.9% ground ball rate, 26.4% strikeout rate, but a high 13% walk rate.

As for Bowman, he’s the most long-term play among the new Athletics, as he’s just 22 years old and was just drafted last year, being selected in the fourth round. He’s played 80 games in High-A this year, putting up a line of .217/.343/.355 while playing second base and shortstop.

While the A’s are ramping up for the future, the Yankees are loading up for right now. Their 69-34 record is the best in the American League and only percentage points behind the Dodgers for best in the majors. In recent days, they’ve bolstered their lineup by adding Andrew Benintendi, added Montas to their rotation and Effross and Trivino to their bullpen. Though there’s still about 24 hours until the trade deadline for them to make further moves, they’ve clearly cemented themselves as one of the strongest teams this year.

With Castillo and Montas now both off the market, teams looking for rotation upgrades will likely turn their attentions to Tyler Mahle. Teams like the Cardinals, Twins, Padres and Blue Jays have been connected to Montas in recent days, with those clubs now likely to pivot to Mahle or other arms.

Jack Curry of the YES Network reported the particulars of the deal before the official announcement (Twitter links).

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

This Trade Candidate Is Better Than His ERA

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Going into this offseason, the writing seemed to be on the wall in Oakland. All of the rumors pointed to a big selloff, with any player approaching free agency expected to be traded for prospects. Though the club waited until after the lockout to pull the trigger, they eventually traded Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt within a week of the resumption of transactions. Sean Manaea would follow them out the door a couple of weeks later.

There were a few names that were mentioned in rumors who didn’t end up moving, with Frankie Montas being the most obvious trade candidate still wearing green and gold. He seems likely to be traded in the next two weeks, as long as his shoulder cooperates. There was also Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy, though their extra years of control likely made them less of a priority for the Oakland brass. Plus, Laureano had the remainder of his suspension as a complicating factor.

Then there’s Lou Trivino, who emerged as the club’s closer last year, racking up 22 saves. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after the 2024 season, meaning there was no rush for the A’s to trade him this winter. But given the volatility of relief pitchers, there would have been logic to cutting a deal in the offseason, even though there were a few years of club control remaining. Since a quick drop in performance can cause a reliever’s trade value to plummet in kind, it often makes sense to take the proverbial cash on the barrelhead.

The team has clearly had bigger fish to fry, however, working out those aforementioned trades and surely discussing Montas deals as we speak. But in that space between the offseason and today, Trivino has gone out and demonstrated the capricious nature of bullpen arms by having the worst season of his career, at least in terms of earned runs. The righty had a 3.70 career ERA coming into the season but has a mark almost double that for the year, currently sitting on a 6.59.

Despite that ugly ERA, there are other statistics that would suggest he has actually taken a step forward this season. His ground ball rate was 46.1% coming into the season but is at 49.4% this year. His 28.9% strikeout rate on the year is well above the 23.9% of prior seasons. His walk rate of 9.6% is slightly above league average, but better than his own previous mark of 10.9%.

More grounders, more strikeouts, fewer walks and yet his ERA has jumped by almost three full runs? The answer to the riddle seems to be contact. A look at Trivino’s Statcast page shows a bit of red for things like strikeouts and fastball velocity, but a bit of blue for hard hit percentage (27th percentile) and barrel percentage (33rd percentile). That certainly suggests that, despite the extra Ks, Trivino is getting hit harder when batters do make contact.

However, there’s actually not that much of a difference to previous seasons. His 8.5% barrel percentage on the year is just barely above the 7.8% he had last year and actually below the 10.5% rate of 2020. His 41.5% hard hit percentage is the highest he’s ever had, but not drastically higher than the 35.7% rate of his career overall. His 13.6% HR/FB rate is above the 10.8% rate of prior seasons, but again, by a reasonable margin. A major factor seems to be luck, as Trivino’s batting average on balls in play this year is a whopping .468, well above the league .285 league average for relievers this year and Trivino’s .275 mark coming into the season.

One potential explanation for the sudden burst in BABIP is Trivino’s sinker. Last year, it had an average exit velocity of 88.3 mph and a launch angle of four degrees, fairly expected numbers for a pitch often used to get ground balls. This year, the exit velocity has dropped to 85.3 mph and the launch angle even lower at -5 degrees. However, opponents are hitting .486 on the pitch this year compared to .329 last year.

Regardless of the cause, the advanced metrics all seem to indicate that Trivino has been better than his 6.59 ERA would indicate, much better in fact. He has a 3.01 SIERA on the season, a 3.81 xERA, 3.22 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. All of those numbers suggest that the baseball gods have been staunchly against Trivino this season and that he really has been his old self all along.

Baseball front offices are surely sophisticated enough to appreciate all of this and still see the value in Trivino as a pitcher. He has a very diverse arsenal as a reliever, with a five-pitch mix that allows him to be effective in various different scenarios. He’s making a modest $3MM salary this year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that via arbitration. Despite his unsightly ERA on the year, there’s still plenty to like, meaning any acquiring team should be happy to have him.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Activate Lou Trivino From Injured List

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The Athletics announced this afternoon they’ve activated reliever Lou Trivino from the COVID-19 injured list. Infield prospect Nick Allen, who was promoted as a designated COVID substitute when Trivino went on the IL, has been returned to Triple-A Las Vegas in a corresponding move. (Martín Gallegos of MLB.com suggested last night that both moves were likely).

Trivino made four appearances before landing on the IL. He was a workhorse last year, tossing 73 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball while collecting 22 saves. He’ll presumably step back into the ninth inning mix now that he’s again healthy. Trivino, who is making $3MM this season and controllable through 2024 via arbitration, could find himself as a midseason trade candidate if the A’s fall out of contention.

Allen, one of the better prospects in the Oakland system, made his first eight MLB appearances. He collected four hits and a pair of walks in 19 at-bats and will now head back to Las Vegas. The A’s had selected Allen onto their 40-man roster last November to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft. He’ll continue to occupy a spot on the 40-man.

That isn’t the case for Drew Jackson, whom the club also reinstated from the COVID-19 IL and returned to Las Vegas. Jackson was also brought up as a COVID substitute last month, but unlike Allen, he wasn’t previously on the 40-man roster. The 28-year-old quickly contracted the virus himself and landed on the IL after appearing in just three games. Now that he’s healthy, he’ll lose his 40-man spot and head back to Las Vegas. The A’s 40-man roster is full, although they’ll need to create a vacancy for Ramón Laureano if he returns from his suspension when first eligible on May 8.

A’s Place Six Players On COVID IL, Promote Three Players

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The A’s announced this evening they’ve placed six players — catcher Austin Allen, infielders Jed Lowrie and Chad Pinder, and pitchers A.J. Puk, Lou Trivino and Kirby Snead — on the COVID-19 injured list. Infielders Nick Allen and Christian Lopes and reliever Sam Selman have been added to the roster as COVID replacements.

Austin Allen, Snead and Puk were already on the restricted list. That’s the procedure for players not vaccinated against COVID-19 for teams traveling to Toronto, where the A’s played a weekend series. They weren’t counting against the 40-man roster at that point, which is why Oakland only brought up three replacements today upon losing Lowrie, Pinder and Trivino.

It’s not clear whether the latter trio of players tested positive or is out due to viral symptoms or contact tracing procedures. They join outfielder Stephen Piscotty on the COVID IL, where he landed last Friday. Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club, though it’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician). Players who are experiencing symptoms but do not test positive can return in shorter order if their symptoms abate.

Nick Allen, Lopes and Selman join the active roster as designated “substitute players.” The A’s will be able to send them back to Triple-A Las Vegas without having to pass Lopes or Selman — neither of whom had been on the 40-man roster — through waivers. All three players will at least get a big league look for the next few days as the A’s play without some regulars due to health and safety protocols.

Allen will be making his major league debut if/when he gets into a game. A third-round pick out of a San Diego high school in 2017, he signed for an overslot $2MM bonus and has been one of the better prospects in the Oakland system ever since. Allen has appeared among Baseball America’s list of the A’s top 30 farmhands every year since being drafted, and he currently checks in 7th on the organizational ranking. BA placed a rare 80 grade on his shortstop defense this winter, writing that Allen could be a Gold Glove-caliber defender at the toughest infield position.

Listed at just 5’8″, 166 pounds, Allen predictably doesn’t offer much from a power perspective. Yet if he meets expectations defensively, he won’t need to make much of an impact at the plate to be a viable regular. Allen has also posted a lower than average strikeout rate at every minor league stop, and he’s off to a nice start in 12 games with Las Vegas. Even if his current promotion proves brief, he could unseat veteran Elvis Andrus at some point this year. Andrus hasn’t done much offensively over the past few seasons, although he’s hit very well through this year’s first couple weeks.

Lopes is also up for his first MLB call. The 29-year-old has played ten minor league seasons since being selected in the 7th round of the 2011 draft. A right-handed hitter, Lopes owns a .265/.364/.422 line in parts of five Triple-A campaigns. He has appeared in the Blue Jays, Rangers and Diamondbacks farm systems and signed a minor league deal with Oakland this past offseason. He has experience at all four infield spots and both corner outfield positions, with the overwhelming majority of that time coming at second base.

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