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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

Latest

  • The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
  • The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.

Earlier Deals

  • The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
  • The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
  • The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
  • The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
  • The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
  • The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
  • The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
  • The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
  • The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
  • The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
  • The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
  • The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.

Yankees Acquire Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino

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The Yankees have announced that they have acquired Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the Athletics. In exchange, the Athletics will receive pitchers JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina, as well as second baseman Cooper Bowman.

Next to Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, Montas has been seen as one of the better starting pitchers available at the trade deadline. The Yankees had been connected to Castillo, but he was traded to the Mariners in recent days. The Yanks evidently turned their attentions to Montas in order to satisfy their desire for boosting their rotation.

Montas has been a solid member of Oakland’s rotation for years, first establishing himself in 2018. Despite a down year in 2020, Montas still owns a career 3.73 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. Just looking at what he’s done since the start of the 2021 season, he’s been on an even better level, logging a 3.30 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% grounder rate. He’s been worth 6.1 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs.

Despite being a solid performer, Montas has seemed like an inevitable trade candidate for quite some time now. As the 2021 season finished and the offseason began, the A’s were widely reported to be planning a massive sell-off of any player making a significant salary and/or approaching free agency. Montas was frequently cited among the trade candidates, next to Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. Those four latter names were all moved between this winter’s lockout and the beginning of the season, but Montas stayed. He’s making just over $5MM this season, making him the cheapest of that group, but he only has one further season of club control remaining. Given that the A’s aren’t likely to return to competition in that time, it made sense to make him available to other clubs.

The Yankees have been incredibly healthy in terms of their rotation this year, with their front five of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino all staying healthy for the first three-plus months of the season. As such, the rotation as a whole has logged 567 innings, the third-most in the majors, while also posting a 3.37 ERA that’s third in the league. However, Severino landed on the IL a couple of weeks ago with shoulder tightness. While he’s been out, Domingo German has made two starts but has an 8.22 ERA in those. When Montas reports to the team, he will likely bump German back to the minors or a long-relief role. If Severino can get back on the mound while everyone else is still healthy, the Yanks might have to make a tough decision about to fit everyone into the mix, but that would be a good problem to have in the future.

The Yankees weren’t content to merely upgrade their rotation, however, also adding Trivino into the bullpen, their second such addition of the day, following their earlier acquisition of Scott Effross. Yankee fans might see Trivino’s 6.47 ERA and scoff, but there’s actually more to like under the hood. Trivino’s been the victim of a .451 batting average on balls in play, despite that number being around .250 in the two previous seasons. His 28.7% strikeout rate and 52.3% ground ball rates on the year are both career highs while his 8.9% walk rate is a career low. As such, all of the advanced metrics feel that batted ball luck is masking his true talents, with Trivino currently sporting a 4.29 xERA, 3.84 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 2.89 SIERA. He’s making a modest $3MM salary this year and can be retained via arbitration for another two seasons.

The Yankees’ bullpen seemed unstoppable for much of the season but has since hit some snags. Chad Green required Tommy John surgery and won’t be back this year. Michael King is also done for the year after suffering an elbow fracture. The once-untouchable Aroldis Chapman has struggled since coming off the IL. Clay Holmes, who seemed to replace Chapman as the unhittable monster in the bullpen, has also come back down to earth in recent weeks. With the additions of Effross and Trivino, the Yankees have given themselves some extra options for late-game duty.

The A’s have already completely remade their system this year with the aforementioned trades of Bassitt, Manaea, Olson and Chapman, and this deal will allow them to bring in four more fresh faces. The highlight of the bunch is probably Waldichuk, 24, who is enjoying a tremendous breakout season. Selected by the Yankees in the fifth round in 2019, he has split his time this year between Double-A and Triple-A. In 17 starts between the two levels, he’s thrown 76 1/3 innings with a 2.71 ERA and incredible 36.5% strikeout rate. The 10.4% walk rate is a little above-average, but there’s still plenty to be excited about in that performance. The southpaw was recently ranked the #5 prospect in the Yankees’ system by Baseball America.

Sears, 26, came in 20th on that same list at BA. He made his MLB debut this year and has looked good so far, notching a 2.05 ERA in his first 22 big league innings. He’s only gotten strikeouts at an 18.1% clip in that time, but is much better at getting punchouts in the minors. In 43 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 1.67 ERA with a 33.7% strikeout rate, along with a 4.3% walk rate.

Medina, 23, has also been considered one of the top Yankee prospects by BA, oscillating between the #7 and #11 spot from 2018 to the present. He’s made 17 starts in Double-A this year, throwing 72 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 50.9% ground ball rate, 26.4% strikeout rate, but a high 13% walk rate.

As for Bowman, he’s the most long-term play among the new Athletics, as he’s just 22 years old and was just drafted last year, being selected in the fourth round. He’s played 80 games in High-A this year, putting up a line of .217/.343/.355 while playing second base and shortstop.

While the A’s are ramping up for the future, the Yankees are loading up for right now. Their 69-34 record is the best in the American League and only percentage points behind the Dodgers for best in the majors. In recent days, they’ve bolstered their lineup by adding Andrew Benintendi, added Montas to their rotation and Effross and Trivino to their bullpen. Though there’s still about 24 hours until the trade deadline for them to make further moves, they’ve clearly cemented themselves as one of the strongest teams this year.

With Castillo and Montas now both off the market, teams looking for rotation upgrades will likely turn their attentions to Tyler Mahle. Teams like the Cardinals, Twins, Padres and Blue Jays have been connected to Montas in recent days, with those clubs now likely to pivot to Mahle or other arms.

Jack Curry of the YES Network reported the particulars of the deal before the official announcement (Twitter links).

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

This Trade Candidate Is Better Than His ERA

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Going into this offseason, the writing seemed to be on the wall in Oakland. All of the rumors pointed to a big selloff, with any player approaching free agency expected to be traded for prospects. Though the club waited until after the lockout to pull the trigger, they eventually traded Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt within a week of the resumption of transactions. Sean Manaea would follow them out the door a couple of weeks later.

There were a few names that were mentioned in rumors who didn’t end up moving, with Frankie Montas being the most obvious trade candidate still wearing green and gold. He seems likely to be traded in the next two weeks, as long as his shoulder cooperates. There was also Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy, though their extra years of control likely made them less of a priority for the Oakland brass. Plus, Laureano had the remainder of his suspension as a complicating factor.

Then there’s Lou Trivino, who emerged as the club’s closer last year, racking up 22 saves. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after the 2024 season, meaning there was no rush for the A’s to trade him this winter. But given the volatility of relief pitchers, there would have been logic to cutting a deal in the offseason, even though there were a few years of club control remaining. Since a quick drop in performance can cause a reliever’s trade value to plummet in kind, it often makes sense to take the proverbial cash on the barrelhead.

The team has clearly had bigger fish to fry, however, working out those aforementioned trades and surely discussing Montas deals as we speak. But in that space between the offseason and today, Trivino has gone out and demonstrated the capricious nature of bullpen arms by having the worst season of his career, at least in terms of earned runs. The righty had a 3.70 career ERA coming into the season but has a mark almost double that for the year, currently sitting on a 6.59.

Despite that ugly ERA, there are other statistics that would suggest he has actually taken a step forward this season. His ground ball rate was 46.1% coming into the season but is at 49.4% this year. His 28.9% strikeout rate on the year is well above the 23.9% of prior seasons. His walk rate of 9.6% is slightly above league average, but better than his own previous mark of 10.9%.

More grounders, more strikeouts, fewer walks and yet his ERA has jumped by almost three full runs? The answer to the riddle seems to be contact. A look at Trivino’s Statcast page shows a bit of red for things like strikeouts and fastball velocity, but a bit of blue for hard hit percentage (27th percentile) and barrel percentage (33rd percentile). That certainly suggests that, despite the extra Ks, Trivino is getting hit harder when batters do make contact.

However, there’s actually not that much of a difference to previous seasons. His 8.5% barrel percentage on the year is just barely above the 7.8% he had last year and actually below the 10.5% rate of 2020. His 41.5% hard hit percentage is the highest he’s ever had, but not drastically higher than the 35.7% rate of his career overall. His 13.6% HR/FB rate is above the 10.8% rate of prior seasons, but again, by a reasonable margin. A major factor seems to be luck, as Trivino’s batting average on balls in play this year is a whopping .468, well above the league .285 league average for relievers this year and Trivino’s .275 mark coming into the season.

One potential explanation for the sudden burst in BABIP is Trivino’s sinker. Last year, it had an average exit velocity of 88.3 mph and a launch angle of four degrees, fairly expected numbers for a pitch often used to get ground balls. This year, the exit velocity has dropped to 85.3 mph and the launch angle even lower at -5 degrees. However, opponents are hitting .486 on the pitch this year compared to .329 last year.

Regardless of the cause, the advanced metrics all seem to indicate that Trivino has been better than his 6.59 ERA would indicate, much better in fact. He has a 3.01 SIERA on the season, a 3.81 xERA, 3.22 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. All of those numbers suggest that the baseball gods have been staunchly against Trivino this season and that he really has been his old self all along.

Baseball front offices are surely sophisticated enough to appreciate all of this and still see the value in Trivino as a pitcher. He has a very diverse arsenal as a reliever, with a five-pitch mix that allows him to be effective in various different scenarios. He’s making a modest $3MM salary this year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that via arbitration. Despite his unsightly ERA on the year, there’s still plenty to like, meaning any acquiring team should be happy to have him.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Activate Lou Trivino From Injured List

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The Athletics announced this afternoon they’ve activated reliever Lou Trivino from the COVID-19 injured list. Infield prospect Nick Allen, who was promoted as a designated COVID substitute when Trivino went on the IL, has been returned to Triple-A Las Vegas in a corresponding move. (Martín Gallegos of MLB.com suggested last night that both moves were likely).

Trivino made four appearances before landing on the IL. He was a workhorse last year, tossing 73 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball while collecting 22 saves. He’ll presumably step back into the ninth inning mix now that he’s again healthy. Trivino, who is making $3MM this season and controllable through 2024 via arbitration, could find himself as a midseason trade candidate if the A’s fall out of contention.

Allen, one of the better prospects in the Oakland system, made his first eight MLB appearances. He collected four hits and a pair of walks in 19 at-bats and will now head back to Las Vegas. The A’s had selected Allen onto their 40-man roster last November to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft. He’ll continue to occupy a spot on the 40-man.

That isn’t the case for Drew Jackson, whom the club also reinstated from the COVID-19 IL and returned to Las Vegas. Jackson was also brought up as a COVID substitute last month, but unlike Allen, he wasn’t previously on the 40-man roster. The 28-year-old quickly contracted the virus himself and landed on the IL after appearing in just three games. Now that he’s healthy, he’ll lose his 40-man spot and head back to Las Vegas. The A’s 40-man roster is full, although they’ll need to create a vacancy for Ramón Laureano if he returns from his suspension when first eligible on May 8.

A’s Place Six Players On COVID IL, Promote Three Players

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The A’s announced this evening they’ve placed six players — catcher Austin Allen, infielders Jed Lowrie and Chad Pinder, and pitchers A.J. Puk, Lou Trivino and Kirby Snead — on the COVID-19 injured list. Infielders Nick Allen and Christian Lopes and reliever Sam Selman have been added to the roster as COVID replacements.

Austin Allen, Snead and Puk were already on the restricted list. That’s the procedure for players not vaccinated against COVID-19 for teams traveling to Toronto, where the A’s played a weekend series. They weren’t counting against the 40-man roster at that point, which is why Oakland only brought up three replacements today upon losing Lowrie, Pinder and Trivino.

It’s not clear whether the latter trio of players tested positive or is out due to viral symptoms or contact tracing procedures. They join outfielder Stephen Piscotty on the COVID IL, where he landed last Friday. Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club, though it’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician). Players who are experiencing symptoms but do not test positive can return in shorter order if their symptoms abate.

Nick Allen, Lopes and Selman join the active roster as designated “substitute players.” The A’s will be able to send them back to Triple-A Las Vegas without having to pass Lopes or Selman — neither of whom had been on the 40-man roster — through waivers. All three players will at least get a big league look for the next few days as the A’s play without some regulars due to health and safety protocols.

Allen will be making his major league debut if/when he gets into a game. A third-round pick out of a San Diego high school in 2017, he signed for an overslot $2MM bonus and has been one of the better prospects in the Oakland system ever since. Allen has appeared among Baseball America’s list of the A’s top 30 farmhands every year since being drafted, and he currently checks in 7th on the organizational ranking. BA placed a rare 80 grade on his shortstop defense this winter, writing that Allen could be a Gold Glove-caliber defender at the toughest infield position.

Listed at just 5’8″, 166 pounds, Allen predictably doesn’t offer much from a power perspective. Yet if he meets expectations defensively, he won’t need to make much of an impact at the plate to be a viable regular. Allen has also posted a lower than average strikeout rate at every minor league stop, and he’s off to a nice start in 12 games with Las Vegas. Even if his current promotion proves brief, he could unseat veteran Elvis Andrus at some point this year. Andrus hasn’t done much offensively over the past few seasons, although he’s hit very well through this year’s first couple weeks.

Lopes is also up for his first MLB call. The 29-year-old has played ten minor league seasons since being selected in the 7th round of the 2011 draft. A right-handed hitter, Lopes owns a .265/.364/.422 line in parts of five Triple-A campaigns. He has appeared in the Blue Jays, Rangers and Diamondbacks farm systems and signed a minor league deal with Oakland this past offseason. He has experience at all four infield spots and both corner outfield positions, with the overwhelming majority of that time coming at second base.

Latest On Athletics’ Trade Possibilities

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7:39pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that rival teams don’t view it as an inevitability that the A’s trade either of Manaea or Montas. Heyman concurs Manaea seems likelier to find himself on the move than Montas but suggests it’s possible Oakland just carries both starters on its Opening Day roster.

2:39pm: It’s been a week since the Athletics’ last trade, which sent third baseman Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays in exchange for a package of four prospects. After the A’s shipped out Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Chapman within just a week of the lockout lifting, the expectation was that additional moves would follow.

That’s still likely to be the case, although the pace has slowed. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Oakland’s current focus is on finding a trade partner for lefty Sean Manaea. While the general expectation has been that both Manaea and right-hander Frankie Montas will be moved, Rosenthal suggests the A’s are still still “deciding how to proceed” with Montas.

It’s only logical that for the time being, moving Manaea is the team’s bigger priority. Not only is the 30-year-old Manaea the more expensive of the two arbitration-eligible hurlers — Manaea settled on a $9.75MM salary yesterday, compared to Montas’ $5.025MM settlement — he’s also set to reach free agency after the 2022 season. Montas, meanwhile, is controlled through 2023, so the A’s could conceivably open the season with him in the rotation and shop him at the summer trade deadline, when buyers may have more urgency than they do at the moment.

Of course, the other side of that equation is that there could also be a broader supply of arms available to pitching-hungry clubs in July. At present, Manaea and Montas are the two most available starters on a trade market that still has plenty of clubs looking for arms. The Twins, Royals, Yankees, White Sox, Rays and Tigers have all reportedly spoken to the A’s about potential deals in the past week or so, and other clubs have surely done so more quietly. Oakland’s bargaining power only increased when Reds GM Nick Krall publicly declared that he did not expect to trade either Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, both of whom had been drawing substantial trade interest themselves.

With Castillo and Mahle ostensibly off the market and few other teams dangling proven big league starters, the A’s have plenty of negotiating leverage. Fast forward to this July, and there may be teams with enhanced motivation to buy — but there will also unquestionably be more arms available in trade. Clubs with current designs on contending will fall out of the playoff picture and look to move short-term assets.

Manaea, the No. 34 overall draft pick back in 2013, is a rental for the 2022 season but a good one. He tied for 22nd in MLB with 179 1/3 innings pitched in a 2021 campaign that saw many clubs aggressively monitor pitcher workloads on the heels of the shortened 2020 schedule. Since returning from shoulder surgery late in the 2019 season, he’s tallied 263 innings of 3.73 ERA ball (3.64 FIP, 3.78 SIERA) with a solid 24.8% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.2% walk rate. As a Boras Corporation client who’s just a year from free agency, Manaea might not be a likely extension candidate for a new team, but he’d bolster nearly any of the other 29 rotations in Major League Baseball.

Montas and Manaea aren’t the only two trade candidates remaining on Oakland’s roster, however. Center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino have both been listed as possible trade chips. Laureano, in particular, has been a target for the Marlins at times this winter, according to Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Fish have made no secret of their desire to add a center fielder, and while their interest in Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is well-known by now, Mish and Jackson report that Miami actually had more serious negotiations with the A’s about Laureano than they did with Pittsburgh about Reynolds.

The two teams discussed myriad scenarios, one of which would’ve sent Laureano and a reliever to Miami. Outfield prospect JJ Bleday was of particular interest to the A’s, per the Herald report — although there surely would have been several other pieces going back to Oakland, particularly if the A’s were to include Trivino or another reliever in the deal. Those talks didn’t culminate in a deal, however, and the Marlins have since deepened their outfield mix with another corner option: Jorge Soler. It’s still feasible that they could rekindle talks, even if they’re presently dormant. Longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro wrote just this morning that the Fish haven’t closed the door on circling back to the trade market to make one more attempt at finding a new a center fielder.

As things stand, the A’s have just under $59MM on the books for the 2022 season. Their trades of Bassitt, Olson and Chapman have already netted them ten young players: right-hander J.T. Ginn, right-hander Adam Oller, center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers, right-hander Ryan Cusick, right-hander Joey Estes, right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, shortstop Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

The A’s Top Bullpen Trade Candidate

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A series of pre-lockout reports suggested there could be a broad sell-off coming in Oakland. Barring the introduction of a fairly high salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement, the A’s seem likely to move some of their costlier players in an effort to trim payroll.

That sell-off has yet to begin, as the trade market didn’t pick up a ton of steam before the transactions freeze. It’s generally expected that the A’s could be among the most active teams coming out of the lockout, with their pair of star infielders (Matt Olson and Matt Chapman) and trio of starters with dwindling club control (Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas) drawing plenty of attention from rival fanbases. Bullpen-needy teams could also look to Oakland, in particular to closer Lou Trivino.

A former 11th-round pick, Trivino has been a bullpen workhorse since making his major league debut in 2018. He’s never required an injured list stint and has eclipsed 60 innings in each of the last three full seasons. Despite taking on significant workloads, Trivino has been consistently effective, working to a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his four campaigns. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a 3.34 mark over 97 frames, holding opponents to a .211/.305/.313 slash line.

ERA estimators haven’t quite been as bullish as those strong results.  While he posted plus strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers early in his career, both have ticked down in recent seasons. His 21.6% strikeout percentage last year was more than two points lower than average for relievers, while his 10.2% swinging strike rate fell below the league mark for the first season of his career. And Trivino has never had great control, walking batters at a 10% clip or greater each season.

In large part due to that unspectacular strikeout and walk profile, both SIERA and FIP have pegged him closer to a high-3.00’s ERA type. He’s benefitted from a rather low opponents’ batting average on balls in play, no doubt in part due to the strong defenses the A’s run out behind him. Yet Trivino has also done his part to avoid especially damaging contact, particularly when put in favorable situations.

In each of his four seasons, the righty’s average exit velocity allowed has been a touch lower than the league mark. His performance becomes more notable when isolating Trivino’s performance against same-handed batters. Righties have an 86.1 MPH average exit velocity against him over the past two years, a mark that’s among the bottom quarter of pitchers leaguewide (minimum 500 offerings). Thanks in large part to that contact suppression, the Pennsylvania native has dominated righty hitters. Since the start of 2020, they’ve mustered only a .169/.261/.232 line against him. Trivino’s strikeout rate against righties is a solid 24.9%, and he’s induced ground-balls at a strong 47% clip.

As one might guess, he’s been far less effective against opposite-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .271/.367/.431 against Trivino in that time. His 20.5% strikeout percentage and 88.5 MPH average exit velocity when at a platoon disadvantage are well worse than his numbers against righties. His walk rate has a similar discrepancy. With the platoon advantage, it’s a manageable 9.3%; against left-handers, he’s walked an untenable 13.3% of opponents.

Those platoon splits probably make him an imperfect fit for a defined closer’s role, particularly in a less pitcher-friendly park than Oakland’s Coliseum and/or in front of a lesser defense. Trivino could be a highly valuable situational option, though, a weapon for a manager to call on against lineups’ top right-handed bats. The three-batter minimum makes it impossible to shield him from lefties entirely, yet an acquiring club could at least mitigate his platoon troubles by avoiding using him against opponents’ best left-handed hitters when possible.

Trivino wouldn’t be as impactful a pickup as any of Oakland’s position player or rotation stalwarts. He’s a good reliever with a particularly strong skill for handling righty bats, though. With essentially every contender on the hunt for bullpen help, he should draw interest coming out of the lockout, and it stands to reason the A’s would be amenable to moving him.

While Trivino’s $2.9MM projected arbitration salary isn’t onerous, he’s already 30 years old and down to his final three years of club control. The A’s aren’t likely to go into a full rebuild, but even if they’re only entertaining a one or two-year step back, Trivino should be available. His arbitration salaries will continue to rise over the coming seasons, particularly if he remains in the closer’s role in Oakland and accumulates a number of saves.

Barring a dominant 2022 showing, his trade value probably won’t increase over the coming months. Even if the A’s were to retool quickly and have a contending roster in place again by 2023 or 2024, Trivino’s arbitration price by that point may be too high for their liking. He probably won’t be the first player moved out of Oakland and certainly won’t grab the most headlines, but Trivino looks like a strong trade candidate whenever teams are permitted to again discuss MLB deals.

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

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The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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