A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.
A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.
That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.
Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41
A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.
Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.
In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.
Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16
Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.
Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10
A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.
Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03
Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.
Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00
Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.
How is everyone doing during ockout? Have any perspectives on baseball changed?
Manfred sucks more now
This is an acceptable response.
And someone with the moniker RobM should know!
How are we doing? I’m reading articles about hitters who walk and strike out. That’s how bad the effing lockout is. And yes, Manfred belongs in a donkey show.
Steven Kwan is going to win rookie of the year. I’m putting money on it.
I can see him contributing to the Guardian’s, but what level of success he’ll have will depend on if he can show at least medium-range power to keep MLB pitchers honest. If not, they’ll pound the zone on him, limiting his on-base skills. He showed improvement on the power front while maintaining his other hitting skills last year, so he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as Cleveland is always in search of OFers.
I wouldn’t put money on it. J-rod is very, very good.
Ain’t your money, brother!
That’s right! What’s everyone’s World Series prediction this year?
With baseball having so much parity how could we know? lol I bet we could all pick 3 of the final four.
It won’t be legit cause it won’t be a full season…
Yeah, I gotta admit – I don’t have a good feeling about the negotiations. I know most people can’t even fathom that the parties would allow any missed time, I can really see both sides diggong in and doing their ground for quite some time. We could be looking at a delayed start to the season, as nauseating an idea as that My be!
I’m a Cleveland fan and I love Kwan. If we’re being realistic here, I think he becomes something in between Daniel Nava and Jon Jay. But he has great contact skills and his plate discipline is elite. He started showing a little bit of power this year too, so it’s definitely possible that his ceiling might be higher.
I think he is Michael Brantley 2.0. I’m high on the guy.
Yes. He does seem similar to Michael Brantley and will get significant playing time in Cleveland.
Michael Brantley came up with the Indians when he was 22 years-old. He was a top prospect with the Brewers, and the main one they wanted in the CC Sabathia trade.
–
Other than Isaac Paredes (22) the youngest players on this list are 24 and 25 years-old. All played primarily in AA ball in 2021. Some were prompted late in the year to AAA ball when the better AAA pitchers were promoted to the majors.
–
Jose Rameriz came up as a skinny defensive player that the Indians were thinking of using in a utility role (he came through the minors with Urshela and Lindor – he played 2B). Later he put on weight and became more of a power hitter. Then again, he first came up with Cleveland for a bit at age 20, and at 21 was in the majors full-time.
–
This is not to say that late bloomers don’t work out – Jeff McNeil came up to the Mets at age 26 – but it is to say that one statistic does not make a player (and as usual, all we’re talking about here are hitting statistics).
Paredes seems to be a very good player in the future. Tigers struck gold there
I’m not saying Kwan is going to be a stat or anything. But most reports have him as usable as a centerfielder and he runs well enough to provide some value on the basepaths.
Seems like a decent bet to provide value as a low end regular or bench player.
You are right and wrong on this one. Matt LaPorta was the targeted initial player. Brantley was the PTBNL. Because Sabathia pitched so well and almost single handedly led the Brewers to the playoffs, the Indians got the better of the two players to be named later. But LaPorta was the key to the trade. He was a dominant hitter in the minors who never figured it out in the bigs.
I think Kwan will end up being a good leadoff hitter. I’m hoping the power shown this year is not a complete mirage but he’s got admirable tools to work with.
Holy crap found another kwan fan, that’s rare!
I have a feeling our club will keep getting bigger. Kwan rocks. Zips likes him too.
Steven Kwan fan club member here, most of the prospect focused Twitter accounts for Cleveland have been super high on Kwan. I was convinced they were going to leave him unprotected like Ka’ai Tom and lose him. I was very happy they decided to protect him. Although them tendering an offer to Zimmer makes me nervous that they won’t turn to him yet.
Amazing to me that they added 11 guys to the 40 and I still think they might lose one or two to the Rule V (Joey Cantillo, Adam Scott, and Alex Call being other possibilities)
Lopez might have an extremely-AVG skewed profile, but I like him as a utility option or perhaps even a leadoff or 9-spot type.
Pulling for Cooper Hummel. I liked him in the Brewer organization. He can play outfield, catch and some infield. Definitely could become a nice super utility player for them. Kinda reminds me of Casey Mcgehee. Tyler White will be an interesting player to watch in spring training. If he works on his third base some could help them as a firstbase, third base, DH type guy. Brewers need more guys to make contact with cutting down on strike outs. A bench guy I don’t think you need to worry about age. If you get 2 or 3 years out of them it works. I could handle a bench with him and Jace Pederson on it. Solid but not flashy.
Anthony Franco has a baseball reference page?!
Paredes was being worked with at the end of the season to pull the ball more. Looks like he should start in AAA, and it will be interesting where they play him. Candelario is in his last yr before FA. If they put him at 3B, I would think that would be a sign that extension talks arent looking.good9
Have you guys heard of this guy named Juan Soto? I think based on his 1.56 BB/K he might become good
I think in Mookie’s case (and, off the top of my head, Jorge Polanco), doubles in A ball is a big flag. Some doubles become home runs down the road; it’s power potential that won’t be fully captured by triple slash lines.
Just looked at Ramirez’s minor league numbers for the first time. Wow. What an age relative to league success story.
I used to come to this page 4-6 times per day. But this lockout has to be KILLING the eyeballs they are getting here at MLBTR. Has anyone even heard anything about if negotiations are positive or negative? This just straight up SUX!
They didn’t negotiate at all in December.
Tyler white, really?
Is this a kbo prospect list?
BB/K and K-BB% are the first thing I look at in hitters and pitchers. Like you said, it’s no guarantee but it’s usually a very good indicator of MLB success. I expected Arraez to hit well in the majors and he has for the most part. I also expect big things from Martin and Miranda.
On the pitching side, wasn’t surprised by the results of Ryan or Ober (small sample size or not). It would not shock me if Ryan was the Twins best pitcher in 2022. I know that’s not saying much given the Twins lack of rotation right now but even if they somehow brought in a legit Berrios or better pitcher, I think Ryan would outpitch him. Just a gut feeling that I hope I’m correct about. Looking forward to Winder being healthy and seeing what he can do too
Darragh – Very interesting deep dive. Thanks.
Even a little baseball is better than none. Thanks for the interesting article. This has certainly got to be a stat front offices are already monitoring. I’ll have to see what Hiura’s numbers looked like. That dude has got to get back on track…