In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Cubs selected outfielder Brennen Davis out of Basha High School in Arizona. Prior to the draft, his athleticism had been quite apparent, as he was also a highly touted basketball player, though he did drop basketball in his senior year to focus on baseball.
After the draft in 2018, he played 18 rookie ball games, slashing .298/.431/.333. In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 50 games there and hitting .305/.381/.525, wRC+ of 160. His eight home runs were perhaps the most encouraging development, as it had been hoped that his power would catch up to athleticism in order for him to reach his ceiling. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, Davis spent the majority of 2021 in Double-A. In 76 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .252/.367/.474, wRC+ of 135. He got promoted to Triple-A in September and hit even better, though over a small sample of just 15 games. His line at that level was .268/.397/.536. In Baseball America’s most recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they put Davis in the 16th spot.
As Davis was having this excellent season in the minors, the Cubs were undergoing a big selloff at the big league level, trading away most of the core players from their recent championship run, including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. The Cubs still have a stable of outfield options on the roster, such as Rafael Ortega, Ian Happ, Clint Frazier, Jason Heyward, Michael Hermosillo, Harold Ramirez, Alfonso Rivas, Greg Deichmann, Nelson Velazquez, Christopher Morel and Alexander Canario.
Despite all of those names, very few of them have done enough to guarantee themselves significant playing time this year. Happ is certain to be in there somewhere. Heyward will likely continue to get playing time with the Cubs hoping he plays well enough that they can move his contract somehow. Frazier and Ramirez are reclamation projects, having each been designated for assignment by their previous teams at the end of 2021. They will probably get some initial playing time as the Cubs see if they found some hidden gems, but they will have to show improvement in order to earn more than an audition. The rest of the group has little or no MLB experience. There’s also the distinct possibility that the Cubs continue their high-turnover roster churn of recent years and trade from this group.
Davis has played all three outfield positions in the minors, but more in center than the corners. The incumbent center fielder for the Cubs is Rafael Ortega, as he got most of the playing time there in the second half of 2021. It was something of a late career breakout season for Ortega, who has been bouncing from team to team for over a decade. Since his debut in affiliated ball in 2008, he’s played in the organizations of the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Marlins and Braves, before joining the Cubs. Going into 2021, he had played 143 MLB games across four different seasons, but he ended up playing 103 games for the Cubs last year, hitting .291/.360/.463 for a wRC+ of 120. His defense was considered slightly below average by Statcast, DRS and UZR, but because of his offensive contributions, he produced 1.6 fWAR in those 103 games. Still, due to his years as a journeyman, he’s not a long-term solution in center as he turns 31 in May.
Davis faces other obstacles to reaching the big leagues, however. For one thing, he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, as he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until the end of the year. That means that calling him up will involve someone else losing their spot. Then there’s also the service time question, which hovers over any highly-touted prospect who is near MLB-ready at the start of a season. In the ongoing CBA negotiations, the owners did make an attempt to address this, as their most recent proposal involved teams that promote top prospects on Opening Day being rewarded with an extra draft pick should that player eventually finish top five in the voting for MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. (More details here.) However, it’s unknown if that proposal, or a modified one, will survive until the new CBA is eventually agreed upon. Even if that provision exists, it’s not a guarantee that a team will value a theoretical draft pick more than guaranteeing themselves an extra year of control over a highly-touted prospect.
Regardless of how the timeline plays out, the 22-year-old Davis should be with the Cubs at some point this year, with the potential to be a key building block as they look to navigate a quick turnaround from their big selloff and open up a new competitive window.
David Bote.
…stinks.
So clever of you to write that ☠️
So clever of you to notice.
This is one of the most ludicrous article headlines I’ve seen in a while. The Cubs have zero outfielders “Blocking Brennan Davis”, either on their current MLB roster or down on the farm. When Davis is deemed ready for prime time, RF or CF is his to lose for the next 5 plus years at Wrigley Field.
Hopefully in 2-3 years he becomes an all star and the Ricketts finally smarten up and extend him.
It’s part of a series of similar articles. No reason to get worked up.
Their writers are trying to justify their jobs and write about anything. The other day they wrote a story about a player who last played in the big leagues in 2006 and just retired from Japanese baseball. Yikes!
Needs more seasoning in AAA. His 97/36 K/W is alarming. That projects to 219 in 600 ABs, which will obviously get worse in the big leagues. The AAA stats were good, but uneven. He looks a little like a slightly more refined version of Adell.
Yeah, no need to rush him at this point.
Heyward for Moustakas. Perfect trade. Agree?
An OF that won’t help Cincinnati for an IF that won’t help the Cubs.
What? Cubs get a 1B and dh. Reds have a right fielder and shift naquin to center.
Better to keep Heyward and see what Schindler can do.
Only if Cincy takes the rest of that contract.
The CBA
With Heyward’s contract expiring after next year, as long as he coaxes an above replacement level first half out of himself, Cubs could prob offload him for basically nothing as long as they pay half of his remaining salary ($16.5M). Not sure who the taker would be, tho.
There is no taker. “Journeyman” Ortega easily outplayed him. Believe he’s owed over 40m and is basically playing at the level of a seasoned AAA player. Heyward appeared to be “old and creaky” last season. He will be sent home eventually. Ramirez or Frazier have more of a chance to succeed.
Ortega will regress.
Bet.
Or, as I stated about, straight up for Moose.
Cubs trading heyward for nothing and paying off his salary seems pointless. Just let him be a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement. Payroll isn’t going to be an issue. He seems to be a great veteran clubhouse guy if nothing else.
Or just cut bait if any of the younger OFers outplay him.
No one is blocking him. Please get the lockout over so TRADERUMORS doesn’t have to make up stories to fill space.
It’s not a made-up story, although it’s a different type of story than would appear here without a lockout. The “blocking” series is a more standard type of baseball story about what challenges a prospect faces to break into a lineup. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they continue these in future seasons during slow times.
You don’t have to read them, or even comment.
Look, I get that it’s hard to find stuff to write about, but the only thing “blocking” Davis is service time manipulation. Of that group, there isn’t a single outfielder with any real promise other than him.
There is no “manipulation”. Its a system that players voted to adopt.
Players were bullied into by the owners in the last CBA. That’s why their fighting to change it during this lockout by the owners right now!
He’s only had 15 AAA games and no college. The Cubs have every right to let him develop and see what he can do over a larger sample size.
Players got what they wanted.
Single seating on the bus.
Personal chefs in the clubhouse.
Nobody bullied anybody.
Bullied
Hahahah
That wasn’t my point.
That, and KOs.
Yeah, if a prospect is in the minors – it is always service time manipulation… except when a team calls a player up and they don’t perform. In that case, the team needlessly rushed the player at the expense of their long term development. Whatever the case, the team is always evil and stupid.
Davis should start on opening day….even if that is in May.
Brennan Davis is going to be a solid if not superb CF for Cubs by the middle of the 2022 season and future years to come. Unfortunately the service time manipulation will keep him in the minors for longer than he should be. He can learn from playing in the MLB on Opening Day but that won’t happen.
Either way, he is a definite Building Block that is going to have at least a solid career in the MLB!
Service time manipulation can also credibly be called service time maximization. The players prefer the former, the owners prefer the latter. Both sides agreed to these rules, and even fans agree that they’d prefer their team keep a player in the minors for a few extra weeks if it buys their team another year of control.
Hopefully they can address this issue in the upcoming CBA.
That aside, service time manipulation is not in play here. This kid should spend at least a few months in AAA this season. A nice Spring Training should have no impact on his timeline. He missed all of 2020 and went from A ball to AAA last season, and showed a lot of swing and miss in his game. Don’t rush him. That could be detrimental to his development.
I know the Cubs want to be a competitive club this year, but if this is going to be a transition year (it should be), I want as much opportunity as possible for the young(er/ish) guys. Ideally Happ plays well enough in the first half that they can trade him in June/July, setting the stage for a Davis call up (this would give BD some time in AAA to work on his game–no need to rush him, although getting him up to the bigs in 2022 should be a priority so long as he doesn’t struggle badly in AAA). Unpopular opinion–the Cubs should consider just cutting Heyward. The money is a sunk cost, as I don’t think he’s going to have any trade value in 2022 (even if he plays well and they eat money, he isn’t a rental and a team still has to be willing to commit to having Heyward on their roster in 2023). It’s not worth giving up a positive asset to get off him (big market club way, way under their high water spending mark). And most of all, I’d rather see Frazier/Ramirez/Hermosillo/Deichmann get those ABs, since those guys actually have a chance to be part of the future.
Sink cost fallacy is one of the worst fallacies in front offices. I think that part of the sink cost issue is owners though that want to keep a steady payroll. Dropping the sink cost means you need a replacement. While that may be a AAAA type they still cost more than just using your sink cost no matter how is hurts the team.
Agree with all of that. But the biggest factors should be weighing the benefit of the possible upside vs the cost of adding a player. For the Cubs, the benefit of giving a young guy or two an audition and MLB experience should be well worth adding league minimum salary (570k per guy) to the ledger. That 570k shouldn’t be any deterrent at all, even though, as you pointed out, it may very well be to the owner/FO.
Sorry, but I have to say this. It’s sunk cost. That means the money is sunk into a bad investment that is blocking the use of a better resource.
Sorry for the typo
Agree with this, big league experience is paramount for Davis this year and totally fine with him getting the call a month or two in the season and then learning in the league the rest of the year. Getting him acclimated and having momentum going into 23 is huge and will also help determine the next waive of FA’s.
One of Frazier, Hermosillo, or Ramirez will platoon with Ortega to start the year. If that’s successful, maybe they shift the platoon to right or left if Davis is ready.
Can someone please tell me why the Mouse for Heyward doesn’t make sense?
Barn cat.
Because the Reds are looking to reduce payroll, not to add to it. This swap would result in the Reds taking on an additional $4M/yr. to take on a much worse offensive player. Sure, Heyward can still play a solid OF but the Reds would like to see someone take Moose and reduce their overall payroll.
I was just about to write this very same thing. Doesn’t seem like a lot of $$ but when a team just gives away a decent starting pitcher affordably priced (Miley), you know they are serious about reducing payroll.
Because having either of them is bad enough—-purposely going forth and acquiring either of them for no reason is even worse. Bad for bad doesn’t make good.
Phrase it another way: why does Moose for Heyward make sense? Very much strikes me as making a move for the sake of making a move. Heyward is at 44m (22m x 2), Moose is at 38m (16m + 18m + 4m buyout). The Reds add 6m which I don’t think they want to do. Cubs trade an OF logjam for an IF logjam (Schwindel, Wisdom, Madrigal, Bote are all non-SS IFs, Happ can play 2B, Hoerner is likely a fringy SS better suited at 2B or 3B). So why bother?
Service time question? But the owners/PBOs/GMs say service time manipulation doesn’t happen! How could this be????
But seriously, service time “issues” should always be described as manipulation by the baseball media. It’s against the rules (or teams would admit it) & shouldn’t be treated as business as usual, let alone “smart business.” Theft isn’t good business.
With the DH and a couple of solid signings, the Cubs could have a decent offense. Davis can join and be the center fielder of the future around June or July in this circumstance. This is only relevant if the Cubs don’t have three-four competent outfielders.
As I see it, if there is a DH and the Cubs sign or trade for a shortstop and bring in a first baseman (Rizzo actually works here), they can be patient with Davis and bring him up once he’s proven his worth.
I think having a Davis in center would help posh the Cubs towards a .500 or slightly better season and make them potentially playoff worthy in the new expanded playoff system. He’s very likely to be one of the top three or four non pitchers in the team in short order.
Service time isn’t really an issue with Davis. If it was he wouldn’t be in the majors until some time next year. 2 big reasons why he won’t be called up. First is he only has about 2 weeks of AAA time. He also has a significant swing and miss issue they would be even worse against major league pitching. He needs time to work on pitch recognition and the strike zone. I would also like to see the team stress situational hitting more during minor league development. And the second reason is that he isn’t even on the 40 man roster yet. To have him up he would have to be added and another player released. Right now the Cubs have alot if players they want to evaluate. I expect the team will keep him in the minors until mid season unless there is a significant injury on the big league team. They will try to see if Heyward can improve to closer what he was in 19 and 20 seasons. They will then either try to find a bad contract swap or release Heyward and call up Davis. This will give him about half a year in the majors to get ready for 2023.
I agree with almost all of what you’ve written cubneck. The only point you’ve made that I somewhat disagree, is I think JHey will be kept around thru the term of his contract in order to help mentor Brennan Davis.
I dunno. I get the feeling he will be an Edwin Jackson type. Just eat the money to free up the space for someone Wil future potential. That is if he doesn’t return to 2019, 2020 form. If he does improve to at least league average then I could see him maybe sticking around to mentor young guys.
Think about how much he would have to improve to be league average. The only mentionable thing Heyward did in his whole Cub career was calling a meeting during the rain delay of Game 7.
Looking at his stats and looking at the Cubs roster I would say nobody is blocking him.
He’s simply not read for the majors. Maybe a late season call up if he is producing in AA or AAA. Otherwise ramming talent to the majors just to see them fail doesn’t seem to be a good idea.
Himself? Dude has only played 91 games above Single A. Let’s slow the train a bit
Exactly.
No one is blocking him. He’s more than ready to be the cubs everyday CF/LF He can play all 3 OF spots. They can put Heyward as the DH
Deja vu?
mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/felix-pie-is-no.html
The front office is blocking Brennan Davis.