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Brennen Davis

Cubs Add Four Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Cubs have added four players to their roster in advance of the Rule 5 protection deadline: outfielders Brennen Davis and Kevin Alcantara, as well as right-handers Ben Brown and Ryan Jensen.

Davis, 23, rated as the Cubs’ top prospect heading into the season and projected to make his MLB debut this year as the team’s regular center fielder.  Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked him as the 16th best prospect in baseball.  Instead, Davis hit the IL in May with what The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney later called “mysterious sciatic pain,” which required back surgery in June and knocked him out for more than three months.  The Cubs had Davis participating in the Arizona Fall League, but had to pull him due to back tightness.  Cubs vice president of player development Jared Banner recently told reporters including Mooney that Davis is expected to be ready for spring training.  Regardless, the Cubs figure to be in the market for short-term help in center after primarily using Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega at the position in 2022.

Alcantara, 20, was the main prize in the deal sending Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees last summer.  Perhaps his successful season in Low-A can help soften the blow for Cubs fans on a day that Rizzo re-upped with the Yankees for at least two more years.  MLB.com currently rates Alcantara as the Cubs’ third-best prospect, with 55 grades for most of his tools.  Baseball America says he has “as much upside as anyone in the Cubs system.”  Look for him to start 2023 in High-A.

Brown, 23, was drafted by the Phillies in the 33rd round out of high school back in 2017.  The Cubs flipped veteran reliever David Robertson to the Phillies at the trade deadline this year to add Brown to their system.  Brown had a 35.4 K% in High-A for the Phillies, and held strong at 32.1% in Double-A for the Cubs.  At the time, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said, “Brown is probably the one that hurt the most. We like him a lot, but you can’t protect everybody.”  The Cubs reportedly aim to have him add a new pitch this winter.  If Brown succeeds at the upper levels of the minors next year, he could see big league time.

Jensen, 24, was the Cubs’ first round pick in 2019 under the Theo Epstein regime.  He struggled mightily with his control in 17 Double-A starts this year.  After walking over 18% of batters faced over his first five starts, the Cubs “recommended to him the best course of action was to make some changes to his arm action down in Arizona,” according to Banner.  After that time away from the Smokies on the “development list,” Jensen came back and still walked over 13% of hitters.  As Mooney and Sahadev Sharma put it, “the command improved enough for the Cubs to protect Jensen and his electric arsenal.”

Cubs Injury Notes: Canario, Davis, Amaya

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Cubs outfield prospect Alexander Canario suffered a badly fractured ankle and a dislocated shoulder during a Dominican Winter League game on Thursday, according to multiple sources (including reporter Arturo Bisono).  While trying to beat out a grounder, Canario awkwardly stepped on the bag and then fell to the ground in obvious pain.

It would seem like Canario will face a substantial amount of recovery time, though no timeline has yet been announced by the Cubs.  This is the second notable shoulder injury of Canario’s short career, as he also had surgery to fix a torn labrum in November 2020.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and then the recovery from his surgery, it isn’t surprising that Canario had modest numbers in 2021, playing with both the Giants’ A-ball affiliate and the Cubs’ high-A team.

Acquired from San Francisco as part of the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the 22-year-old Canario hit .252/.343/.556 with 37 homers and 23 steals (from 26 chances) over 534 combined plate appearances at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels last season.  This excellent performance sent Canario within the top 10 of Chicago prospects, as per both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.  It also put Canario on the radar of several rival teams scouting the Cubs as possible trade partners, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, but Canario’s status as a trade chip or as a possible difference-maker in Wrigleyville is now on hold until his recovers.

Brennen Davis has also been sidelined by injury, as lower back tightness limited him to just five games in the Arizona Fall League before the Cubs shut him down.  Sharma writes that the club hadn’t determined the nature of this new injury, but it doesn’t seem similar to the problem (a vascular formation on his sciatic nerve) that required Davis to undergo back surgery in June.

A consensus pick as Chicago’s second-best prospect and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, Davis has hit .255/.363/.444 over 906 professional PA since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft.  Multiple injuries have slowed Davis’ progress, as beyond his back surgery, Davis has also had to recover from a concussion and broken nose (after being hit by a pitch during Spring Training), as well as finger injuries in 2019.

Despite all these setbacks, Davis was still moving up the minor league ladder and playing well, before his back problems led to a down year in 2022 and a probable promotion to the majors.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are still expected to place Davis on the 40-man roster this winter, since even with the back concerns, he would surely be taken in the Rule 5 Draft.

Miguel Amaya was placed on the 40-man back in November 2019, yet the catching prospect has barely played in the following three years.  Beyond the canceled 2020 minors season, Amaya was limited to 23 games in 2021 and then 40 games in 2022 due largely to a forearm strain that resulted in Tommy John surgery.  Once Amaya made it back this season, he was limited to DH duty, and then his path back to catching was halted when he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot in mid-September.

“My offseason focus is to be the best version of me for 2023, and whatever happens, happens,” Amaya told Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Sun-Times.  “I just want to be healthy to show everyone who Miguel Amaya is and just have fun and play the baseball I know.”

Amaya has been limited to shoulder and elbow exercises while his foot heals, and while he hasn’t much recent contact with Willson Contreras, Amaya also cited the veteran catcher as an important mentor during his development.  In theory, Amaya might’ve already established himself as Contreras’ replacement if healthy, as Contreras is headed into free agency this winter.  A top-100 prospect prior to his Tommy John surgery, Amaya might be a factor for the big league roster later in 2023, though he has only 51 games at the Double-A level and nothing in Triple-A.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Adames, Pirates, Davis

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Ryan Helsley won’t pitch in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series today, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat).  The decision is related to workload rather than a physical setback, as while Helsley left yesterday’s game with numbness in his right fingers.  The issue contributed to a nightmarish breakdown, as Helsley was charged with four of the six runs the Cards surrendered in the ninth inning of the 6-3 loss to the Phillies.

An MRI didn’t reveal any damage, and Helsley told Jones and other media members that he’ll try to stimulate more blood flow in his fingers via laser therapy.  The right-hander said he doesn’t have much feel (particularly on breaking pitches) as the ball is leaving his hand.  With this is mind, it’s fair to consider Helsley as a question mark for Game 3, if St. Louis is able to extend the series tonight.

Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

  • “I love it here, I feel good here, I feel comfortable here and I wish I could stay here the rest of my career,” Willy Adames told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters about his time with the Brewers.  Adames is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and given the Brewers’ payroll limitations, it remain to be seen how many (if any) of such notables as Adames, Corbin Burnes, or Brandon Woodruff could be possible extension candidates.  “At the end of the day, [the Brewers] have to put everything together and see if we can work something out.  Hopefully we can, and we can make it happen.  But I’m always willing to hear what they have to say,” Adames said.  Possibly impacted by a high ankle sprain that sidelined him in May and early June, Adames hit .238/.298/.458 over 617 plate appearances, though that still translated to a 109 wRC+, and the shortstop also hit 31 homers.
  • Pirates manager Derek Shelton cited first base and catcher as “areas of need” in the offseason, telling Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and other reporters that “I do think we’ll continue to look to solidify those positions….We’re just going to have to see what’s available, how we acquire guys to fill that.”  Roberto Perez may be a candidate to be re-signed, though the veteran backstop played only 21 games before undergoing hamstring surgery, and Perez was one of a whopping eight catchers who saw time behind the plate for the Pirates in 2022.  First base was also a revolving door with 10 players getting time at the cold corner, and Michael Chavis (who had the bulk of the playing time) was already outrighted off the active roster, with Chavis electing free agency.  As always, it’s hard to imagine the Pirates spending big on upgrades at either position, as the team continues to rebuild.
  • Brennen Davis was limited to 53 games in 2022 due to back surgery, and the star Cubs prospect reflected on his difficult year and somewhat unusual injury with The Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee.  Initially diagnosed as a herniated disc, Davis’ issue was actually a vascular malformation that was causing pain due to pressure on his sciatic nerve.  While it may take time for Davis to fully recover his power stroke, both the outfielder and Triple-A hitting coach Desi Wilson feel the situation might actually help Davis’ overall hitting approach.  “Having to grind for my hits. I can’t just go out there and muscle one out,” Davis said.  “I have to square baseballs up and hit them the right way, with true backspin and stuff like that, and pick pitches that I can do damage on.”  Davis has returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, and he is hopeful of making his MLB debut in 2023 — since Davis had already hit well during a brief Triple-A stint in 2021, he likely would’ve already appeared in the majors this year had he stayed healthy.

Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, McLain, Davis, Davis, Priester

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we pretend the offseason isn’t looming over us whilst we ponder prospects on the way to the Arizona Fall League. The AFL kicks off on October 3. We’ll aim to focus on players who weren’t thoroughly covered in previous episodes of BHP, i.e. Cardinals third baseman Jordan Walker. He happens to be the top-rated prospect tabbed to play in Arizona this fall.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 21, OF, PHI (AA)
264 PA, 4 HR, 29 SB, .260/.333/.387

After an icy start to the season in High-A where he hit a meager .230/.287/.325 in 292 plate appearances (3 HR, 33 SB), Rojas got his act in gear and earned a promotion to Double-A where he produced an exactly league-average batting line. A source theorized he was striving to produce home-run power, and it backfired. Prior to the season, Rojas cited Ronald Acuna Jr. as his aspirational goal. One could see how such a lofty target might lead a prospect to struggle.

Rojas is best known for his elite defense and speed. This season, he swiped a total of 62 bases in 67 attempts and only 556 plate appearances. With new baserunning rules coming into effect, Rojas profiles to be among the league leaders in stolen bases over the next half-decade. Although he’s not as strikeout prone as Adalberto Mondesi, he might prove frustratingly similar. He can deliver surprisingly potent exit velocities, but he mostly makes modest contact due to poor discipline and off-balance swings. Without a breakthrough, he profiles as an above-average centerfielder who hits something like .240/.290/.350 and makes up for it on defense and the basepaths.

Rojas is Rule 5 eligible this winter and will certainly be added to the roster.

Matt McLain, 22, SS, CIN (AA)
452 PA, 17 HR, 27 SB, .232/.363/.453

McLain is a well-regarded prospect in scouting circles, but he can get a bit lost in a system that also boasts the inimitable Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte up the middle. Entering the season, he was regarded as a bat-first future second baseman whose lack of power could lead to a utility role. It appears he attempted to sell out for power this season with modest effect. He hit 17 home runs and more flies than grounders – a good foundation for a player who will call Great American Smallpark his home venue. Unfortunately, he also posted a 28.1 percent strikeout rate – unsightly for a player whom scouts believe has a 60-grade hit tool. Discipline could play a role here as well. He walked in 15.5 percent of plate appearances, a sign of borderline passivity.

Optimists might note that Gunnar Henderson had similar characteristics last season. He made better swing decisions in 2022 en route to number one prospect status. McLain doesn’t have the same raw tools as Henderson, but he could seek to follow the same roadmap from Double-A to the Majors.

Henry Davis, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 136 PA, 4 HR, 3 SB, .207/.324/.379

Davis only managed 255 plate appearances across four levels due to a left wrist fracture. That’s not an auspicious form of injury for a player whose defensive prowess is actively questioned. All aspects of his defensive profile need improvement. The profile has a vaguely Gary Sanchez-like feel – both for defensive reasons and because light-tower power is his carrying trait. Unlike Sanchez, Davis has plenty of feel for contact and could probably comfortably profile as a first baseman. The Fall League will give him an opportunity to catch up on lost reps.

The Pirates have interesting questions to answer in the next two seasons. Both Davis and Endy Rodriguez (featured last week) profile as offensive catchers who might fit better at another position. Rodriguez appears to be the better defensive catcher and is slightly ahead developmentally so Davis might find himself used more like Daulton Varsho – a guy who can catch in a pinch but typically fields another position.

Brennen Davis, 22, OF, CHC (AAA)
174 PA, 4 HR, .191/.322/.319

Davis suffered a lost season of sorts, making only 204 plate appearances across three levels. On the whole, he struggled mightily. He missed three months with an unusual back injury – a blood vessel deformity that led to debilitating pain. The issue was corrected surgically. Davis will seek to recover his 2021 form which included excellent production in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Given the nature of his injury, it’s premature to adjust his status as a prospect until we can learn more about his recovery. He has swing-and-miss issues which could limit his production – especially if the injury has sapped his athleticism. Scouting reports tend to focus on the many adjustments he has ahead of him while noting his previous success with making similar adjustments.

Quinn Priester, 21, SP, PIT (AAA)
AA: 75.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 2.87 ERA

Although he finished the year in Triple-A, Priester spent the bulk of his campaign at Double-A where he performed well. An oblique injury limited him to only 90.1 innings on the season. For that reason, he’ll attend the AFL. Typically, top pitching prospects only join an Arizona roster if they need to make up for lost innings.

Priester is trending towards a 2023 debut. He’s credited with an impressive curveball and three useful variants of fastball. The repertoire as a whole doesn’t tunnel well which is likely to hold him back from future acedom. However, his ability to miss bats and induce weakly hit ground-ball contact could make up for his shortcomings. Only recently have developmental processes put so much emphasis on pitch tunneling. Plenty of pitchers succeeded in the past (and today) despite a relative lack of tunneling. That said, there’s anecdotal evidence that pitchers without tunneled repertoires take longer to adjust to the Majors.

Five More

Andy Pages, LAD (21): The Dodgers are adept at putting their prospects in positions to succeed, so I often find myself skeptical of their top-rated players. Pages has posted remarkable power output throughout his rise through the minors, but his extreme pulled, fly ball approach could render him a one-dimensional threat. He was a roughly league-average hitter as a 21-year-old at Double-A.

Nick Gonzales (24): Gonzales remains a bit of an enigma. He passes all the eye tests, but his statistical performances leave much to be desired. As a 23-year-old at Double-A, he hit .263/.383/.429 with only seven home runs and five steals in 316 plate appearances. He struggled to make contact with a 16.0 percent swinging strike rate and 28.5 percent strikeout rate. Minor adjustments could unlock major results.

Jackson Merrill, SDP (19): A 2021 first-rounder, Merrill will be one of the youngest players in the AFL. The 19-year-old had an encouraging debut in Low-A, batting .325/.387/.482 in 219 plate appearances. There are questions about his ability to handle high heat or ever generate much power – both of which are probably premature for a player this young.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Another 2022 draftee, Gelof got a brief taste of Triple-A last season then spent most of this season in Double-A where he posted an ordinary .271/.356/.438 triple-slash (105 wRC+). Gelof looks the part of a future big league, possibly a second-division starter.

Warming Bernabel, COL (20): Bernabel earned a promotion to High-A late in the season and saw his plate discipline erode (1.8 percent walk rate). Otherwise, he performed ably with a .305/.315/.486 triple-slash in 109 plate appearances. He had more well-rounded success in Low-A where he hit .317/.390/.504 with 10 home runs and 21 triples in 300 plate appearances. At this stage of his career, Bernabel is considered too aggressive to thrive in the Majors, though he does seem to have a knack for squaring up the baseball – even outside of the strike zone.

Cubs’ Prospect Brennen Davis Undergoes Back Surgery

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Cubs top prospect Brennen Davis underwent back surgery yesterday, as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune first reported. According to Montemurro, the procedure cauterized some blood vessels that had been causing Davis discomfort; he’s not dealing with any structural issues.

A more specific recovery timetable will become clear after he undergoes further testing next week, but Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic reports that he’s expected to miss multiple months. The organization isn’t ruling out the possibility the 22-year-old could return this season, but Sharma suggests there’s a chance he’ll be out for the year. He is expected to make a full recovery, and the Cubs don’t anticipate it being an issue beyond this season.

Baseball America recently ranked Davis the game’s #41 overall prospect, the top farmhand in the Chicago system. The former second-round pick is credited by evaluators with a rare blend of power and athleticism, and the Cubs are certainly hopeful he’ll develop into a long-term regular. BA suggests Davis has All-Star upside, although he’s not without some questions about his bat-to-ball skills. He’d been off to a slow start to the 2022 campaign with Triple-A Iowa, hitting .195/.286/.299 with a 34.1% strikeout rate through 91 plate appearances. Montemurro suggests he’s been dealing with back soreness dating back to Spring Training, so it’s certainly possible the injury played into his subpar performance.

Davis wasn’t going to earn a call-up before turning things around, but he seemed a candidate for a midseason promotion if he righted the ship offensively. The surgery seems to make a 2022 big league debut unlikely. Even if Davis can return to the playing field this year, it stands to reason the Cubs would want to see him have a lengthier run of success against Triple-A arms before adding him to the majors.

While he recovers, Davis will remain on the minor league injured list — where he’s been for a few weeks. If he’s not promoted during the season, Chicago will have to add him to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason to keep other teams from selecting him in the Rule 5 draft.

Who’s Blocking Brennen Davis?

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In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Cubs selected outfielder Brennen Davis out of Basha High School in Arizona. Prior to the draft, his athleticism had been quite apparent, as he was also a highly touted basketball player, though he did drop basketball in his senior year to focus on baseball.

After the draft in 2018, he played 18 rookie ball games, slashing .298/.431/.333. In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 50 games there and hitting .305/.381/.525, wRC+ of 160. His eight home runs were perhaps the most encouraging development, as it had been hoped that his power would catch up to athleticism in order for him to reach his ceiling. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, Davis spent the majority of 2021 in Double-A. In 76 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .252/.367/.474, wRC+ of 135. He got promoted to Triple-A in September and hit even better, though over a small sample of just 15 games. His line at that level was .268/.397/.536. In Baseball America’s most recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they put Davis in the 16th spot.

As Davis was having this excellent season in the minors, the Cubs were undergoing a big selloff at the big league level, trading away most of the core players from their recent championship run, including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. The Cubs still have a stable of outfield options on the roster, such as Rafael Ortega, Ian Happ, Clint Frazier, Jason Heyward, Michael Hermosillo, Harold Ramirez, Alfonso Rivas, Greg Deichmann, Nelson Velazquez, Christopher Morel and Alexander Canario.

Despite all of those names, very few of them have done enough to guarantee themselves significant playing time this year. Happ is certain to be in there somewhere. Heyward will likely continue to get playing time with the Cubs hoping he plays well enough that they can move his contract somehow. Frazier and Ramirez are reclamation projects, having each been designated for assignment by their previous teams at the end of 2021. They will probably get some initial playing time as the Cubs see if they found some hidden gems, but they will have to show improvement in order to earn more than an audition. The rest of the group has little or no MLB experience. There’s also the distinct possibility that the Cubs continue their high-turnover roster churn of recent years and trade from this group.

Davis has played all three outfield positions in the minors, but more in center than the corners. The incumbent center fielder for the Cubs is Rafael Ortega, as he got most of the playing time there in the second half of 2021. It was something of a late career breakout season for Ortega, who has been bouncing from team to team for over a decade. Since his debut in affiliated ball in 2008, he’s played in the organizations of the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Marlins and Braves, before joining the Cubs. Going into 2021, he had played 143 MLB games across four different seasons, but he ended up playing 103 games for the Cubs last year, hitting .291/.360/.463 for a wRC+ of 120. His defense was considered slightly below average by Statcast, DRS and UZR, but because of his offensive contributions, he produced 1.6 fWAR in those 103 games. Still, due to his years as a journeyman, he’s not a long-term solution in center as he turns 31 in May.

Davis faces other obstacles to reaching the big leagues, however. For one thing, he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, as he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until the end of the year. That means that calling him up will involve someone else losing their spot. Then there’s also the service time question, which hovers over any highly-touted prospect who is near MLB-ready at the start of a season. In the ongoing CBA negotiations, the owners did make an attempt to address this, as their most recent proposal involved teams that promote top prospects on Opening Day being rewarded with an extra draft pick should that player eventually finish top five in the voting for MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. (More details here.) However, it’s unknown if that proposal, or a modified one, will survive until the new CBA is eventually agreed upon. Even if that provision exists, it’s not a guarantee that a team will value a theoretical draft pick more than guaranteeing themselves an extra year of control over a highly-touted prospect.

Regardless of how the timeline plays out, the 22-year-old Davis should be with the Cubs at some point this year, with the potential to be a key building block as they look to navigate a quick turnaround from their big selloff and open up a new competitive window.

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