An expanded postseason field, and the accompanying surge in annual revenue, is perhaps the most critical issue for Major League Baseball during the ongoing wave of collective bargaining talks with the MLB Players Association. MLB has continually pushed for an expansion to 14 teams, and while the MLBPA has acquiesced and shown a willingness to expand the field to an extent, their latest proposals have included a slightly smaller 12-team field (as a trade-off for myriad other potential gains/wins for the union).
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that in the event of a push to 14 teams, ESPN would pay MLB an additional $100MM in television fees for the newly created games and postseason content. That’s all the explanation needed for why the league views expanded playoffs as an imperative, but even a move to a 12-team format would be immensely beneficial. Andrew Marchand of the New York Post reports that even expanding to 12 teams would net MLB an additional $85MM in revenue from ESPN. Those figures are critical to keep in mind, as they provide context for the gains the union hopes to achieve through its own asks in negotiation.
The Players Association has previously suggested the possibility of a “ghost win” for division winners — that is, the winners of each division who do not receive a bye would effectively start a series up 1-0 over their Wild Card opponents. The Wild Card clubs would be tasked with winning one more game than the division winners in order to advance to the next round, with the union’s general belief being that this structure would incentivize teams to push to win the division rather than “settle” for a Wild Card.
ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that one potential iteration of a 12-team playoff field would give each league’s best two teams a first-round bye, while the remaining eight teams would compete in best-of-three series. Olney doesn’t indicate whether that’s a union- or league-proposed structure, but that seems to diverge rather notably from the union’s prior “ghost win” scenario. It’s possible Olney’s scenario is one way the league envisions a potential increase to a dozen teams, but there’s been no firm agreement on postseason expansion anyhow, so the specifics are still very much up for debate in negotiations.
One potential alternative, if the league considers the “ghost win” unpalatable, could be to stack home-field advantage for the better team, although it’s not clear whether the union would consider this enough incentive to win the division. Still, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz wrote in 2020, in a theoretical best-of-seven series played between two evenly matched teams, his own historical research has suggested the home team would win 59% of the time. Add the revenue and allure of hosting that series (gate, parking, concessions, surrounding developments), and there would indeed be some incentive; alternatively, however, some clubs might balk at the notion of reaching the playoffs and yet not playing host to a single contest.
There are countless permutations that could be explored, but the crux of the matter for the union — beyond wanting to ensure that they receive sufficient compensation for agreeing to the change — has been some wariness that an expanded playoff field will actually disincentivize teams from spending. Increasing the field to 14 teams, for instance, would’ve allowed an 83-win Reds team that slashed payroll last offseason and an 82-win Phillies team to enter the 2021 postseason. The general concern that teams might feel the expanded format can help them skate into the postseason without making meaningful offseason upgrades obviously has its detractors, but the union has regularly pitched it as a central focus.
In general, anti-tanking measures have been a key talking point for the MLBPA during negotiations, and The Score’s Travis Sawchik tweets that the league and union at least discussed the possibility of awarding monetary bonuses to teams small-market clubs who are making an effort to compete. The funds would be allocated at commissioner Rob Manfred’s discretion, and it remains unclear just where the parameters for receiving said bonuses would be set. Presumably, that’d be its own set of negotiations, though win totals and reaching the postseason make for natural benchmarks — at least in concept. The source of these additional bonus funds remains unclear, though Sawchik does add that revenue sharing would continue in addition to this hypothetical concept, so it’s not a straight replacement scenario.
There’s about three hours to go until the latest “deadline” from MLB. Manfred has termed any cancellation of regular-season games a “disastrous outcome for the industry” and made no indication of any possibility of rescheduling missed games. However, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the MLBPA has been holding out hope that, in the event games are ultimately stricken from the regular-season calendar, the two sides can negotiate a means of making them up somewhere down the road in 2022.
Whether that’d come in the form of additional doubleheaders, the addition of some makeup games on would-be off days or in some other capacity isn’t known. MLB was, in 2020, staunchly against pushing regular-season games into October — although last year’s regular season included three games in early October. The logistics of trying to reschedule any missed games would bring about its own complicated set of negotiations, and both sides would surely prefer to simply agree to terms that facilitate an on-time start to the season. We’ll know just how feasible that is before too long.
Yeah, Lets water down the product even more. The owners will do ANYTHING for more $$$$. Why not just let all 30 teams into the playoffs. The regular season will be used for seeding.
Geeez before expansion, teams just had to finish at the very top of their respective leages.BOOM!! you’re in the WS
Why stop there?
How about not keeping score?
Participation trophies for everyone (at the players expense of course).
In fairness, they also had fewer teams back then. But I largely agree. If I could, I’d have 8 teams in the playoffs. Baseball playoffs have always meant more just because of how difficult it is to make it there. It’s not like the NBA, where a couple teams with losing records make it each year and somehow have a chance at the title.
Agree completely. 8 teams total is great. Give the 1 seed a ghost win to make sure teams don’t shoot for second place.
However, I tune into every one of the 1 game Wild Card contests so I know I’m enabling the owners here.
I honestly don’t care for the ghost win even in that scenario. As the article mentions, between evenly matched teams, the team with homefield advantage wins nearly 60% of the time. I’d be more in favor of the top team choosing their first round opponent. Maybe that backfires and the chosen opponent does what the Braves did last year, but it’d add a bit more intrigue and give a nice benefit to finishing with the top seed.
The “ghost win” might be the dumbest concept I’ve heard MLB come up with since 7 inning double headers and runners on 2nd to start the inning. They are changing the game way too much. That’s my biggest complaint about Manfred. I wouldn’t like the universal DH if it weren’t for the fact that it makes no sense to have different rules in each league. At least a universal DH is better than half the teams getting a dh and half the teams not. The fact that 30 teams have been competing for the same championship under different rules for this long is beyond me. The presence of a designated hitter can really alter the way a team should be built. They should have either started with the DH in both leagues or never had a DH at all.
No one is shooting for 2nd if they have a shot at 1st. No one.
All things being equal, a team finishing 1st has better than twice the chance of winning the WS as a team finishing 2nd.
In addition, the team that finishes 2nd is often a couple of games away from missing the playoffs completely.
But even watered down, it’s still harder cuz they play so many damn games. I know it would never happen, but I’d prefer to see fewer games. Start later so fans in cold weather cities don’t have to freeze. That way, they could expand playoffs – which the owners would like – and still finish in early-mid October.
Beyond 10 teams is excessive and too watered down. And it should be no less than best of 5 series in the playoffs.
And no games should ever be played before May 1st or after September 30th. Should be a 100 game season and World series over September 30th or earlier.
I agree with most of that except a 100-game season. That kind of makes no sense
Most people lose interest in the regular season by September and 162 games is grossly excessive. Also should limit overlap with the football season as much as possible. At most, it should be a 120 game season April (not March) through August with the World series over by September 30th. It would still be the most games of any sport by a significant margin. 162 is crazy.
How about a 132 game season? That’s a one less month of the regular season. 10 teams are fine for the playoffs. Is baseball, hockey now all of a sudden? Certainly feels that way. Let the games start by mid April and end by mid August. No more putting a player on 2nd base in extra innings. No more 3 batter rule for a pitcher either out of the pigpen.
That could work. The main things are no games at all beyond September 30th and a significantly reduced number of regular season games.
The reason for the lockout is the players are fighting with the owners over money? Your proposal is both sides lose money with less games? Might be quiet possibly the worst suggestion of all time.
Just get it done already….we need baseball and we need it now.
This seems to be missing 2 teams.
“ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that one potential iteration of a 12-team playoff field would give each league’s best team a first-round bye, while the remaining eight teams would compete in best-of-three series”.
So, 2 teams get byes. 8 play games. That’s 10. There are supposed to be 12 teams. What happens to the other 2 teams?
Thank you. These negotiations have turned my brain to mush. It’s the top two teams in each league getting a bye — not the top team. Sorry for that. It’s been updated.
Excellent, thanks for the clarification! I think everyone has mush brain at this point.. But we all appreciate the hard work and frequent updates. Hopefully soon they will agree and we will get to point to something else as the cause of our mushy brains.
I think the owners started with mush brains to come up with such stupid ideas. They are so blinded by money that they don’t care what damage they do to the product. If they wanted more playoff games, make the wildcard series best of 3 (all at the venue of the team with the better record) and the rest of the series best of 7.
Ha – I actually just stopped reading it when I got to the part that Dodgerbleu pointed out – because I thought MY brain had turned to mush! Seriously. Thanks for fixing it, Steve. 🙂
It said it would give each league’s best TWO teams a first round bye, not just the best team. That’s what gets us to the 2 extra teams from where we are now in the postseason.
You missed Steve saying he updated it. It used to read incorrectly, but it’s been fixed.
As an additional benefit of being the top seed in your league, I think you should be able to choose your 2nd round opponent. I realize the Braves won it all, but does anyone really believe that, given the choice, the Giants would have opted to face the Dodgers?
Also, I hate the ghost win idea. Homefield advantage is already enough.
I don’t really want to watch more playoffs… I would rather the production from Broadcasters be better. There is only so much free time to watch my favorite teams and the convergence of sports options in the fall. Better Quality!
They are always trying to expand to make more money. This is one reason why the owners get on my nerves. Why not improve the quality of entertainment production? Or at least put more pressure on the broadcasters to improve. This has to be a better solution to just cramming pointless games down our throats…
Why not hire a home team broadcaster just like the regular season. Rhen we would have to listen to John Smoltz and others that are clueless. Would probably save MLB money. I personly mute (Smoltz and Carrey) and listen on the internet for audio.
I spend a lot of time watching with mute. I can’t stand listening to Joe Buck. He is literally pushing me away from sports with how irritating he can be. I’d rather Dennis Eckersley make up baseball phrases that are absolutely nonsensical than listen to Joe Buck ruin the sport for each successive generation of new baseball fans. There is a reason why the sport was so popular in the 20th century. Maybe broadcasters can learn something by diving into that source.
I wouldn’t put in as strong of terms as you have, but yeah, I’m always disappointed when Joe Buck is doing a game I want to watch – just even his tone of voice … or something.
Great broadcasters are too hard to employ these days. Too much of a line they have to tow. (Toe?). Have to be entertaining and honest but not too critical of owners or hit the wrong narrative.
Lets load the bases at the start of every inning for the home team. That would make as much sense as ghost wins. You always hear “that’s why they play the games,” but we’ve evidently surpassed the need to play them now. Lets just assume the home team wins!!!
I prefer 12 teams (6 per league) with the top two division winners getting a bye. The third division winner would play the last wild card team in a best of 3 with the division winner getting home field advantage for all three games. The two remaining WC teams could play best of 3 with the better team getting 2 home games. That would work.
Works for me. I know MLB and the PA were waiting for my approval…
All fans want anti-taking rules, but the players don’t care if teams lose, they just want them to spend. They would be very happy if the Pirates signed two big money contracts and still lost 90 games a year.
If the Angles would have traded the contracts of Upton and the prior contract of Pujols to the Pirates, and the Angels would have signed two more big money contracts, the Players would have done a happy dance.
Players don’t care about competitive balance. Only the fans care about competitive balance.
I think the league also cares to a certain extent. It’s better for the game’s growth to have 16 teams with playoff hopes and 10 with a chance at the title than it is to have 11 and 5, respectively. Good playoff races and evenly-matched playoff series grow interest, which grows revenue. Unfortunately, there are enough owners like Nutting who will never really care about winning or the league overall, so long as they continue to get richer.
Good Point. The players don’t care. The owners do.
MLB seriously needs to force Nutting to sell. His goal is to pocket revenue sharing money, ensuring a profit. The people of Pittsburgh and MLB as an whole deserve an owner who cares about the on field product.
I can’t imagine the other owners like him. Imagine him pocketing your money then bringing a team nobody wants to see to your stadium.
That entire situation in Pittsburgh is really, really ugly. Been to PNC twice, and still can’t get over what a great stadium it is; not just the best, it’s a baseball stadium the Next Generation. And, FWIW, the employees are fantastic to boot.
Add that to a pretty loyal fan base, a rich history, and what’s happening there is a shame. There’s GOT to be serious profit possibilities there for a sharp owner.
It shouldn’t be up to MLB. It is up to Pittsburgh fans. Stop going to games. Stop buying Pirate swag. I live in Michigan and say the same thing about the Lions. The only way to get owners to change is to hit them in the pocketbook. If they keep putting a crappy product on the field and people go to the games, they’re showing signs of approval. Stop going!
I loved my experience going to PNC Park. Took the boat in, sat in great seats with a beautiful view.
That said, there were 10 other people in my entire section – in the middle of August! And the usher was still yelling at people for sitting in the wrong seat! There were 100 empty seats in the section!
The one argument I can make for the 12 team setup is that there’s usually a team or two knocked out due to playing in a tough division.
As of now, the AL East has 4 teams that look strong on paper and will play each other enough to likely knock down their win totals. This would let one or two in.
The toughest division in baseball kind of rotates. The NL West isn’t a joke, either. So perhaps this lets a couple worthy teams in each year.
New playoff proposals: If the team with the better regular season record is behind after nine, it gets an extra 10th inning.
Also, teams with inferior regular season records must play one man with throwing hand tied behind his back.
Lineups must be approved by team with better record, who can then decide to adjust lineup accordingly. An automatic out will be recorded at the whim of the manager.
Teams who make the wild card may have 2 dominant starters and do might be able to steal 3 game playoffs. I think the division winners who don’t get byes should get 2 ghost wins in a best of 5 and get the first 2 real games at home. If the WC team wins the first 2 they are rewarded by having the 5th, deciding game at home. Wouldn’t that create drama!
Make it monetary based. For example, having the teams with better records in wild card games gain the bulk of the revenue will incent teams to be better. Money speaks to both sides.
This just in: MLB proposing to go to 3 balls and 3 strikes to shorten the game.
They haven’t got the balls to do that
I suspect “ghost wins” were a bargaining chip MLBPA threw on the table with every expectation of pulling it back in return for something else they really wanted. MLBPA negotiators are probably having a nice laugh that it was reported and taken seriously.
My Cubbies are going to the playoffs every year !!!! Let the beer flow in the bleachers of wrigley field
I ain’t afraid of no ghost. Still, I hate that idea.
Essentially the 100M (really, only about 2M per team after the league takes its administrative costs) washes the MINISCULE achievements the Union has realized. So what’s happened? MOST teams loose money in Spring Training anyway; only the big boys (Dodgers, Red Sox, Yanks) see a profit, and it’s definitely not huge. No loss there for the owners there. And it looks like the owners will get a full schedule. (The “low attendance in April” is a canard; fewer games affect Season Tickets and most importantly TV revenue. Fannies in the seats is a minor consideration these days).
Still can’t believe how hard the MLBPA caved….really beyond belief.
Still can’t believe how hard the MLBPA caved….really beyond belief.
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Wait until it is over to judge the final result. Too many issues and too many numbers to calculate yet.
That said, the union is getting substantial raises from everything I’ve read. I’m not sure how that is caving if they are getting good raises.
The stuff the players come up with is baffling.
More teams in the draft lottery and all this ghost win nonsense?
That has crossed over the point of just being incentive to win the division. If you’re a fringe team, you’re better to take and get a chance at the draft lottery than you are to go into a “best of three” where the top seed gets to pick the matchup, all the games are in their ballpark, and you have to win twice while they only have to win once. Stack the odds that much, and it’s easier to just miss the playoffs and hope for a lottery win.
The general concern that teams might feel the expanded format can help them skate into the postseason without making meaningful offseason upgrades
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That’s certainly true, but it is also true, and likely more true, that teams that project to be .500 might sign 1-2 more guys to get to .525.
Let’s try to make these discussions see both sides.
… and make a trade at the deadline.
It is a ridiculously one-sided to see that as a loss for the players. Every year this will change, but in the NL, if you added two teams to the playoffs, that’s at least 4 more teams in contention. And as luck would have it, the #12 team won the WS.
14 playoff teams and uniforms with ads on them will kill any interest I have in baseball.
Manfred and the owners need to get their heads out of their asses and stop being so damn greedy
Agree completely. I often defend the owners but on this, eff them!
Does MLB and its teams then stand to earn an additional $85MM per year with a 12-team postseason but only $15MM more than that by adopting a 14-team postseason (e.g., $100MM total)?
$15MM divided by 30 teams—or even as few as the two WS participants—hardly seems like enough money to justify involving 14 teams instead of 12.
What? $85MM is chump change to the owners. Are they really holding on to that as a bargaining chip? The Yankees will probably waste that much on strikeout king Joey Gallo. That amount is peanuts.
Strikes, lockouts, this I can handle. Make it so that after a 162 game season just under half the teams get into the playoffs? I’m out. Make it so sub-.500 teams regularly make it in? I’m gone.
If you’re not good enough to make the play-offs under the old system then you shouldn’t be in the play offs at all. Give everyone a participation ribbon, it’s a complete farce.
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