The Pirates probably won’t grab too many headlines of note in free agency once the lockout lifts, but the majority of Pittsburgh fans hope they’ll make another transaction of note: a long-term deal for All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Likewise, fans from just about every outfield-needy club around the league are hoping the Pirates move the 27-year-old Reynolds in exchange for what would figure to be a major haul of prospect talent. It’s not an either-or proposition, as Pittsburgh could just hang onto Reynolds and control him another four years via arbitration, even without an extension. Whatever path the team is planning, Reynolds himself tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he “didn’t hear anything” regarding his future from the team before MLB halted Major League transactions and barred players from communicating with their teams.
Reynolds was a focal point of the 2021 trade deadline, reportedly drawing sizable offers from the Braves and Brewers. The Mariners, Marlins and Yankees have each shown interest in Reynolds as well, and his market undoubtedly spans a good bit wider than just that handful of publicly known suitors.
It’s hardly a surprise that Reynolds has become such a coveted player. He followed a Rookie of the Year-caliber 2019 season with a rough campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but Reynolds bounced back better than ever in 2021 and made that 2020 downturn look like an aberration. Reynolds has played three seasons in the Majors and, in the two full campaigns, has hit better than .300 with a near-.400 OBP and well above-average power. He made his first All-Star team in 2021 — a season that saw him finish out the year with a hearty .302/.390/.522 batting line. Reynolds belted a career-best 24 long balls, racked up 35 doubles and logged a career-high (and league-leading) eight triples as well. On the whole, the switch-hitter owns a .290/.368/.490 line in an even 1400 plate appearances.
Defensively, Reynolds has stepped up as the Pirates’ primary center fielder, although publicly available metrics provide lukewarm reviews of his glovework there. He registered +2 Outs Above Average this past season, per Statcast, but Reynolds also checked in with -5 Defensive Runs Saved and a -5 Ultimate Zone Rating. His overall defense in center rates closer to average when factoring in his entire career, but it’s also worth noting that Reynolds has 10 Defensive Runs Saved in the corners. Scouting reports based on the eye test surely provide a similar range of opinions, but it’s unlikely anyone views Reynolds as a major liability with the glove.
Reynolds is controlled through the 2025 season but will reach arbitration as a Super Two player this year, as he enters the season with two years and 163 days of service time (just nine days shy in that rookie season of reaching a full year). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $4.5MM salary for the coming season, and he’ll be in line for three more raises based on that first-time arbitration salary.
Historically speaking, there’s a wide swath of possible extension outcomes for players with between two and three years of MLB service time. Mike Trout (six years, $144MM) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $341MM) are clear outliers that needn’t enter the conversation when trying to gauge a theoretical price point for Reynolds, but as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, there have been quite a few outfielders to sign long-term while in this service bracket — including a few who were Super Two players themselves.
Back in 2015-16, it was common for outfielders in this position to sign in the range of $25-30MM over a five-year period, as evidenced by deals for Adam Eaton, Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera. All of those deals included at least one club option. Minnesota’s Max Kepler moved the needle forward a bit further with his 2019 extension — a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $35MM, plus a club option for a sixth season. Kepler, like Reynolds, was a Super Two player, and his $3.2MM projected 2019 salary was a good bit lower than that of Reynolds. Kepler’s deal paid him $25.5MM for his four arbitration seasons, guaranteed him $9.5MM for one would-be free-agent year and also gave the Twins a $10MM option for a sixth season. Reynolds has a superior track record to this point in his career, so it seems fair to expect that he’d topple that Kepler mark by a fair bit.
The other potential comparable for Reynolds, and one that his reps at CAA likely prefer as a target to surpass, is the six-year, $53.5MM deal signed by Kevin Kiermaier in 2017. Kiermaier was also a Super Two center fielder with above-average power. His defensive accolades had already begun to pile up — Kiermaier won Gold Gloves in 2015-16 and a Platinum Glove in 2015 — but he hadn’t made anywhere near the same level of offensive impact as Reynolds has. He’d tallied 1313 career plate appearances at the time of his extension and owned a .258/.313/.425 line that’s a good bit shy of Reynolds’ career numbers. There’s also the simple fact that Kiermaier’s deal — which paid him $27.5MM for his arbitration years, bought out two free agent campaigns at a combined $26MM and contained a $13MM club option for a seventh season — is now five years old, making for a slightly dated comparison point.
The possibility of a long-term deal for Reynolds is complicated by the Pirates’ organizational spending habits. The Bucs have rather remarkably never topped a $60MM guarantee on any player, and that contract was handed out to Jason Kendall more than two decades ago. Even by the Pirates’ consistent low-spending ways, the long-term financial outlook is wide open. They don’t have a single dollar committed beyond next season, and Reynolds is the only player on the roster who’d be likely to command a significant arbitration payout in 2023. There looks to be opportunity for the Pirates to build around Reynolds as a franchise player, but it may require the single biggest expenditure the organization has made — at least since Bob Nutting took over principal ownership of the franchise in 2007.
A good portion of the fanbase would be in favor of such a move, with Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes expected to be part of a long-term core for the Pirates as they continue with a massive rebuild. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote over the summer that the Bucs weren’t inclined to trade Reynolds, instead “(intending) to build around him.” That might result in the front office opening talks whenever they’re again allowed to make MLB transactions, but that process apparently hasn’t yet begun.
Of course they haven’t, that would cost money.
Nobody was expecting an extension, at least not this year. Another filler article for the site.
I agree that there wasn’t anything newsworthy in the article, but I did appreciate the player and contract comps as a reference point for how little Nutting would have to pony up to make it happen
If anyone is still interested in how the CBA deal went from good to bad so quickly I have heard some things from writers and reporters. I’m still here in Jupiter. We are waiting to see if anything happens tomorrow. There are a lot of people talking about how the deal was close until Scott Boras showed up. Everyone is saying “Scott Boras blew up the deal” because all he is concerned about is the CBT threshold going up. Everyone is saying that he has all the big name clients and he personally benefits from the CBT number going up and nothing Bill Madden talking about it if you guys want to check it out. The feeling is that the whole thing fell apart after Boras showed up and talked to “his people.”: youtube.com/watch?v=lUSY-hLjzBM
Apparently Max Scherzer “went crazy” after Boras showed up. I saw Scherzer here, too.
MLB Network actually alluded to this mentioning that players were in communication with their agents during negotiations.
Steve, thanks for your continued reporting!
Not buying this as presented though. The CBT has always been item #1 or 2 in these negotiations, so they wouldn’t need Boras to tell them the CBT offer was bad (it is). All the agents are against the CBT.
Bill Madden is an old-time tabloid writer. Those of us who live (or in my case used to live) in NY know what a horrible person he is. Pairing him on a show with Mad Dog is frightening. 🙂 Management of the two NY teams used him regularly to write hatchet pieces on players out of favor. What this really signals is both sides are upping the war. Attaching Boras to the “failed” negotiations is management’s attempt to try and gain public favor.
The agents should be part of it when you think about it. While Boras is the king of all the agents, their needs are all the same. He actually benefits of other agents when he gets big contracts. The agents are in constant contact with the teams, so they know what is holding down the salaries of certain players. The CBT is part of that.
Boras is a cancer to the negotiations. The 5 year CBA proposal covers the career of the average player. The owner’s offer seemed decent, especially for the 70% of players making close to the league minimum. But Boras doesn’t care about the median player, or even today’s player (seeing how he’s fine with them making zero money in April 2022)… he wants the CBT raised to unrealistic levels so a dozen of his future clients make more money, which in turn, gets him more money.
Steve Nebraska
If anyone is still interested in how the CBA deal went from good to bad so quickly
===============================
I am interested.
But I am more interested in why these rumors aren’t being reported by the media. It’s no secret that I have been critical of Steve Adams and Anthony Franco, for what I consider one-sided coverage.
If this is just a crazy rumor invented by Steve Nebraska, then they should challenge you on it.
If this is true, then they should report it.
There is no third way. If it was Steve Cohen that came in at the last second, and blew it up for the owners, you can be darn sure it would be headlines in here. It’s only baseball, but this is not the way the media is supposed to operate.
And they know that.
@JoeBrady
Actually there have been some brief mentions on MLB Network that players have been in contact with their agents keeping them briefed throughout the negotiations.
With that being the case, while all players cast their vote, the fact that they are in contact with their agents during this indicates that those players that feel they aren’t informed enough about business and tend to be overly reliant on their agents, are essentially casting votes for the agent’s interests, not necessarily their own. And all under the belief that they are getting sound advice from someone that will continue to have a business long after the player has retired.
Speculation can happen and rumors may be an expansion, but the facts are it has been mentioned about the players being in contact with their agents throughout this process.
And a little add with this being the case. Several have said on these boards that we don’t pay to watch the players play. Well, we don’t pay to watch the agents play either. It kind of feels like this year’s issues are more problematic because many players are allowing themselves to be the middlemen between the owners and the agents.
What would you like to chat about?
Is an extension really necessary at all? If he’s 27 now then he’s either in or entering his prime. By the time he’s a free agent, he’ll be in his 30s. Maybe he’s the rare player who excels into their mid 30s, but would the best course of action (if you don’t trade him) to be riding him out until he hits free agency and let him decline with another team? It seems the Buccs might be close to contention and have some really impressive players coming soon. I’d try to hang on to him unless another team absolutely blows me out of the water in a trade offer.
He’ll be traded, just a question of when. I wonder if they would be able to extract full value for him in the rush post the end of the lockout. Might be better to wait until the trade deadline, or next offseason. He’ll still have three years of control. The potential challenge is he may never repeat a 6 WAR season again. His value is likely as high as it’s ever going to be.
Depends upon the development of,the wave of guys soon to be coming. If those guys turn out over 2022 and 2023 and it is a true window they will attempt to sign him. They have him through 2025. They will not move him unless someone knocks their socks off.
He’s too old for a buy out arbitration plus 2 years contract. It doesn’t look that appealing to him. Pirate’s aren’t into giving out 200 300 million dollar contracts nor should they.
Nothing to do with cheap. They would gladly guarantee his arbitration and pay him 60 million for 2 years after that.
Hi, I’m Bob Nutting.
I take tens of millions of other teams money through revenue sharing and put it in my pocket instead of paying players.
As long as you don’t sell your Billion dollar asset to keep baseball fans in Pittsburgh I am fine with you pocketing our money.
Sincerely the 29 other owners.
I can’t imagine this to be remotely true.
First he pockets their money. Then he brings a team nobody want to see to their ballparks.
If he sold at least there would be a shiny new comp for their franchises.
They agreed to the revenue sharing and blow off the players union grievances so what else am I to believe? A new owner might spend more but it won’t be enough to matter much. 130 140 has been about tops for small markets when contending. Bob has spent 100.
first, he doesn’t pocket the money. most of the money goes back into the franchise. Of course this raises the value of the team so should they sell…. that money would come right back around.
Also like many teams. Bob isn’t the sole owner. He just happens to be the majority owner.
Bob has shown absolutely no interest in public on selling his share, ever. Any talk of selling is just a wet dream.
One light that might give those who want Bob to sell the team is that he did just recently sell a business. I think it was part of one of the 7springs things.
oh and Bob did open the pocket books in the last window and reportedly (aka might be BS) to keep Cutch. in the first, Neal H. squandered it in the second the front office convinced Bob to approve the trade.
I do think Bob could do better, but unless Bezos or his ex-wife buys the team.. I don’t think you are going to get anyone to spend 150M in payroll here unless you have a real real shot at the WS…. It might not even make sense to at that point if you already have a good team.
Getting a new front offices was a good move by the owners a little late though… lets see how it pans out in a year or two before sticking them with a burning pitch fork.
Yeah, that sounds…..criminal, actually.
It isn’t as if this is a shocking development or even that it reflects poorly on the Pirates… yet. They do control him for quite awhile still, they don’t “have” to discuss an extension with him. But they honestly should at some point soon.
If you’re a Pirate fan, you want to see this team start to re-join the major leagues beginning this year in some substantial fashion, and stop being the MLB pipeline for those clubs who actually compete. What that entails I don’t pretend to know. But I’d want them to promote as many kids as reasonably possible and sign some players who can bring a winning attitude and provide leadership to a young team. I wish them and their fans the best moving forward.
Pirates will be fine for the next decade. They won’t be spending much money but you will see them in the playoffs.
Pirates fan here and I am fine with no extension. He won’t be a free agent until he is 31. If no season this year make that 32. Trade him in 2 or 3 years or take the comp pick. If he is fine with extending till age 33 to even 35 (doesn’t seem like he is) then all for it. But 38 to 40 I will pass.
Is an extension really necessary at all? If he’s 27 now then he’s either in or entering his prime. By the time he’s a free agent, he’ll be in his 30s. Maybe he’s the rare player who excels into their mid 30s, but would the best course of action (if you don’t trade him) to be riding him out until he hits free agency and let him decline with another team? It seems the Buccs might be close to contention and have some really impressive players coming soon. I’d try to hang on to him unless another team absolutely blows me out of the water in a trade offer.
Pirates got Reynolds and Oneal Cruz in trades. Yeah, they may be cheap, but their GM knows how to get around it.
Former GM made those trades. He had the eye for talent. Just didn’t have the people to develop it. Reynolds was already developed and Cruz was raw until the new regime took over.
Chris Archer says ‘hi’.
What does chris archer have to do with this discussion?
YourDreamGM
What does chris archer have to do with this discussion?
===================================
I assume that bucsfan0004 was making the point that, since Huntington traded 3 top tier prospects for a pitcher who went 6-12 for them, and cost $20M+, maybe he doesn’t have an eye for talent.
@JoeBrady You can question why you would want archer that bad. I sure didn’t want him. But he was in demand and that was the market price. If anything the Pirates got him for a decent price. They weren’t top tier prospects either. The rays just know how to develop players. Glasnow only had 2 pitches and awful control. Pirates had him as a low leverage reliever. Meadows was a dh who’s power didn’t develop as scouts thought. Obviously pirates gave up on him too soon. Baz didn’t develop well with his brief time with the Pirates. Raw highschool rhp could be a starter or reliever or never make it. Gotta pay something to get something. It took the rays to develop those pitchers. A lot of teams wanted archer and fell in love with his cheap years of control. I didn’t want him but in his defense the Pirates made him a lot worse by changing how he pitches and forcing him to ise a pitch that the rays ditched for a reason.
With all due respect, a lot of that sounds like the excuses that Padre fans use to dismiss all of Preller’s bad trades. But imo, you cannot say he has an eye for talent when he picks up Reynolds, and Reynolds develops well, but then ignore the guys that he let get away that did develop.
It’s all of one or all of the other.
IRT “that’s the price you pay”, it just feels like that makes it worse. Just as annoying as the talent he gave up, the Cole trade just exacerbates it. He traded Cole, and got back Archer, which is a huge loss. In return, he got Musgrave & Moran, but then gave up Glasnow, Meadows & Baz, another huge loss.
You can have a eye for talent and not have the ability to develop it. Everyone knew Glasnow had 2 elite pitches. They just couldn’t fix his control. If something breaks and I can’t fix it I get rid of it. That’s pirates did. And they weren’t going fix him. Pirates didn’t develop any pitchers who weren’t #1 or #2 overall picks. They didn’t use sticky stuff. Didn’t have any modern equipment. They were in the stone age compared to many teams.
BC brought in Contrares, Peguero, Bednar, Smith-Njigba, Castillo, Rodriguez among others in trades too. A couple of solid drafts too. As you said, it comes down to developing these guys into big leaguers.
Yep. Anyone can pick out talent. Developing it varies team to team.
Trying to remember if there was ever a trade that people were more apoplectic over that worked out better.
It was treated as some combination of the end of the world and the ultimate betrayal.
One of the best trades in team history.
Most fans don’t know much about how baseball teams should operate. Especially before the moneyball movie. A lot of fans hated their star player being traded. Internet just gave them a bigger voice.
Most writers don’t either. Almost unanimously, writers get giddy over the team trading for the star, while lamenting the team that received the prospects. A couple of times, like the Zambrano/Kazmir trade, the writers will question the “star” side of the trade, but that’s unusual.
He should just accept 5 years and………..$50M total ($10M AAV) from the Pirates. Then 2 club option years. No way the Pirates should offer him a dime more.
Now, I’d like to hear from the ardently pro-owner side saying why the Pirates should spend more money on Reynolds, or how Reynolds deserves to hold out for the highest offer in FA……. Go.
50 million might be a little light with 4 years of arbitration. As is he gets to be a free agent at 31. Is an additional 50 to 70 million worth being a free agent at 33? If I was Reynolds it’s either free agency in 4 years or give me the last contract I will ever sign.
Dreamer “the last contact I will ever sign”.
Maybe he want to Win?
He wants money. All ball players want as much money as they can get. Winning is just a bonus.
@biffs What’s he want to win have to do with my contact?
@John I wouldn’t say all but most.
YC,
I’m not pro-owner, but I’ll take a shot.
This is the Juan Soto situation writ small.
If Reynolds earns $4.5M, $8M, $12M, and $15.5M during the next four seasons, your offer gives him $10M for his first free agent year. And then there are the two club options at unknown dollar amounts, so he loses three years before he’s eligible for free agency.
If I’m Reynolds, I say no way. He’s pocketing $4.5M this season, so he’s already in good shape long term. As good as $50M? Of course not, but as a FA, he should top $100M.
I agree. I’d be okay with no extension, and a possible trade, but buying out his control years for a generous amount, in exchange for having two options years, might be a better option.
1-Barring a collapse, the Pirates are going to pay him. Maybe higher or lower, but he will get paid.
2-At some point, the rebuild has to stop. And you need to send a signal to the fans that you are now in ‘go’ mode. The best way to do that is extending a couple of players.
3-He’s not a kid, but will only be 31 at the start of free agency. You could easily tack on two years, maybe three, without a huge risk.
It’s not even like say 5-70 is a lot of money, the pirates just won’t.
Buying out the rest of his deal at a reasonably generous price adding on 2 or three years and option(s) at the end with a player opt-out triggered at the end of 2025 based on the teams record over two years or something along those lines. Toss in a limited no trade clause with performance and or award bonuses.
Guarantee him 50M from now through 2025 plus 60M for the next three. (110$/7y). 3 years of options split between team and mutual… at 15M buyout (total). so guaranteed 125m. Along with any bonuses he will probably get should he stay until the option years.
For a player who got 5fWar and assuming health is no less than a 3fWAR through his rookie deal, would probably be fair. He gets his guarantee now and a get out of jail free card should the team not be performing.
I’d probably work to get more perks but price seems fair to me. Also would be a good deal for the team. Not ruining the pocket book for a time when you plan for the window to be open.
CBA may change the plan of attack as far as contracts though.
5 years/$65 mil. (AAV$13 mil). New club record contract. Buys 1st year of FA. Club options for 2027 & 2028 (age 32-33 seasons) for $15 & $20 mil. Total value of contract, excl. buyout, $100 mil. Of course, the Pirates exercise the 2027 option for his age 32 season, then trade him to the Yankees, who pay for the two option years then sign him to a new contract in 2029 for 4 years/$100 mil for his age 34-37 seasons, 3 to 5 years into his inevitable decline.
All told, he makes $200 mil in those two contracts. Not too bad.