At some point, the MLB lockout will end and teams will be scrambling to address their arbitration eligible players. We’ve updated this post, removing players no longer on 40-man rosters. We’ve also moved traded players to the correct teams and added official service time as well as notes for pre-tender agreements.
Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 11 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, I should note that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
The Super Two cutoff is 2.116 in Major League service time. The service time figures below are official. We’ll make adjustments to any projection below the league minimum salary, once a new minimum is established. Also, please note that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.
Angels (3)
- Max Stassi (5.049) – $2.7MM
- Mike Mayers (4.020) – $2.2MM
- Tyler Wade (3.088) – $700K
Astros (6)
- Rafael Montero (5.138) – $3.1MM
- Aledmys Diaz (5.100) – $4.0MM
- Phil Maton (4.047) – $1.4MM
- Ryne Stanek (4.038) – $2.1MM
- Josh James (3.005) – $700K
- Framber Valdez (2.163) – $3.2MM
Athletics (10)
- Sean Manaea (5.157) – $10.2MM
- Chris Bassitt (5.130) – $8.8MM
- Chad Pinder (5.047) – $2.8MM. Signed for $2.725MM prior to NT deadline
- Matt Chapman (4.109) – $9.5MM
- Matt Olson (4.103) – $12.0MM
- Tony Kemp (4.098) – $2.2MM. Signed for $2.25MM prior to NT deadline
- Frankie Montas (4.015) – $5.2MM
- Lou Trivino (3.163) – $2.9MM
- Deolis Guerra (3.071) – $900K. Signed for $815K prior to NT deadline
- Ramon Laureano (3.014) – $2.8MM
Blue Jays (10)
- Ross Stripling (5.115) – $4.4MM
- Teoscar Hernandez (4.097) – $10.0MM
- Adam Cimber (3.156) – $1.5MM
- Trevor Richards (3.084) – $1.1MM
- Ryan Borucki (3.066) – $800K
- Danny Jansen (3.050) – $1.5MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2.157) – $7.9MM
- Tim Mayza (2.156) – $1.2MM
- Trent Thornton (2.150) – $900K
- Cavan Biggio (2.129) – $1.7MM
Braves (10)
- Adam Duvall (5.151) – $9.1MM
- Dansby Swanson (5.047) – $10.1MM
- Luke Jackson (5.019) – $3.8MM
- Guillermo Heredia (4.112) – $1.6MM. Signed for $1MM prior to NT deadline
- A.J. Minter (3.154) – $2.1MM
- Max Fried (3.148) – $7.1MM
- Mike Soroka (3.146) – $2.8MM
- Sean Newcomb (3.123) – $900K
- Tyler Matzek (3.019) – $1.5MM
- Austin Riley (2.138) – $4.3MM
Brewers (12)
- Jace Peterson (5.142) – $1.3MM. Signed for $1.825MM prior to NT deadline
- Omar Narvaez (5.089) – $4.1MM
- Hunter Renfroe (4.165) – $7.6MM
- Brent Suter (4.161) – $2.3MM
- Josh Hader (4.115) – $10.0MM
- Brandon Woodruff (3.161) – $7.1MM
- Willy Adames (3.105) – $4.0MM
- Corbin Burnes (3.049) – $4.0MM
- Eric Lauer (3.033) – $2.7MM
- Jandel Gustave (3.027) – $800K. Signed for $675K prior to NT deadline
- Adrian Houser (3.010) – $2.3MM
- Rowdy Tellez (3.004) – $1.9MM. Signed for $1.94MM prior to NT deadline
- Luis Urias (2.120) – $2.4MM
Cardinals (7)
- Alex Reyes (4.056) – $3.3MM
- Harrison Bader (4.030) – $3.7MM
- Jack Flaherty (4.006) – $5.1MM
- Jordan Hicks (4.000) – $1.0MM
- Giovanny Gallegos (3.085) – $2.8MM
- Dakota Hudson (3.066) – $1.7MM
- Tyler O’Neill (3.059) – $3.5MM
Cubs (3)
- Willson Contreras (5.108) – $8.7MM
- Ian Happ (4.036) – $6.5MM
- Harold Ramirez (2.124) – $1.6MM
Diamondbacks (7)
- Luke Weaver (4.112) – $2.7MM
- Noe Ramirez (4.083) – $1.8MM. Signed for $1.25MM prior to NT deadline
- Caleb Smith (4.078) – $2.1MM. Signed for $2MM prior to NT deadline
- Carson Kelly (3.161) – $3.0MM
- Christian Walker (3.124) – $2.7MM
- Jordan Luplow (3.112) – $1.5MM
- J.B. Wendelken (3.028) – $900K. Signed for $835K prior to NT deadline
Dodgers (4)
- Trea Turner (5.135) – $19.8MM
- Cody Bellinger (4.160) – $16.1MM. Signed for $17MM prior to NT deadline
- Julio Urias (4.117) – $8.8MM
- Caleb Ferguson (3.093) – $700K
Giants (7)
- Dominic Leone (5.168) – $1.5MM
- Curt Casali (5.151) – $2.0MM
- Darin Ruf (4.138) – $2.6MM
- Jarlin Garcia (4.114) – $1.8MM. Signed for $1.725MM prior to NT deadline
- John Brebbia (4.078) – $1.0MM. Signed for $837.5K prior to NT deadline
- Austin Slater (3.147) – $2.0MM. Signed for $1.85MM prior to NT deadline
- Mike Yastrzemski (2.128) – $3.1MM
Guardians (7)
- Austin Hedges (5.166) – $3.8MM
- Amed Rosario (4.062) – $5.0MM
- Franmil Reyes (3.115) – $4.4MM
- Shane Bieber (3.097) – $4.8MM
- Bradley Zimmer (3.077) – $1.5MM
- Cal Quantrill (2.132) – $2.8MM
- Josh Naylor (2.127) – $1.2MM
Mariners (10)
- Adam Frazier (5.075) – $7.2MM
- Mitch Haniger (5.048) – $8.5MM
- Drew Steckenrider (4.094) – $2.1MM
- Tom Murphy (4.092) – $1.7MM
- J.P. Crawford (3.163) – $5.0MM
- Diego Castillo (3.118) – $2.6MM
- Paul Sewald (3.072) – $1.8MM
- Casey Sadler (3.035) – $1.3MM. Signed for $1.025MM prior to NT deadline
- Dylan Moore (3.000) – $1.6MM
- Luis Torrens (2.118) – $1.6MM
Marlins (10)
- Jesus Aguilar (5.082) – $7.4MM
- Richard Bleier (5.074) – $2.5MM
- Joey Wendle (4.088) – $4.0MM
- Garrett Cooper (4.053) – $3.0MM
- Dylan Floro (4.053) – $2.4MM
- Brian Anderson (4.031) – $4.5MM
- Jacob Stallings (3.149) – $2.6MM
- Elieser Hernandez (3.118) – $1.4MM
- Pablo Lopez (3.093) – $2.5MM
- Jon Berti (2.168) – $1.2MM
Mets (13)
- Edwin Diaz (5.121) – $10.4MM
- Seth Lugo (5.082) – $3.7MM
- Miguel Castro (5.079) – $2.6MM
- Brandon Nimmo (5.042) – $6.0MM
- Trevor Williams (5.027) – $3.8MM
- Dominic Smith (3.146) – $4.0MM
- J.D. Davis (3.137) – $2.7MM
- Tomas Nido (3.089) – $900K
- Jeff McNeil (3.069) – $2.8MM
- Joey Lucchesi (3.067) – $1.6MM
- Drew Smith (3.034) – $900K
- Pete Alonso (3.000) – $7.3MM
- Luis Guillorme (2.167) – $700K
Nationals (8)
- Josh Bell (5.053) – $10.0MM
- Joe Ross (5.018) – $3.0MM
- Juan Soto (3.134) – $16.2MM
- Erick Fedde (3.099) – $1.9MM
- Victor Robles (3.033) – $1.7MM
- Austin Voth (2.127) – $1.0MM
- Tanner Rainey (2.127) – $800K
- Andrew Stevenson (2.127) – $900K. Signed for $850K prior to NT deadline
Orioles (6)
- Trey Mancini (5.015) – $7.9MM
- Anthony Santander (3.162) – $3.7MM. Signed for $3.15MM prior to NT deadline
- Jorge Lopez (3.102) – $1.5MM. Signed for $1.5MM prior to NT deadline
- Paul Fry (3.075) – $1.1MM. Signed for $850K prior to NT deadline
- Tanner Scott (3.059) – $1.0MM
- John Means (3.007) – $3.1MM
Padres (8)
- Joe Musgrove (5.063) – $8.9MM
- Dinelson Lamet (4.130) – $4.6MM
- Emilio Pagan (4.091) – $2.3MM. Signed for $2.3MM prior to NT deadline
- Jorge Alfaro (4.083) – $2.7MM
- Victor Caratini (4.051) – $2.1MM
- Tim Hill (3.112) – $1.4MM. Signed for $1.325MM prior to NT deadline
- Austin Adams (3.015) – $1.0MM. Signed for $925K prior to NT deadline
- Chris Paddack (3.000) – $2.1MM
Phillies (4)
- Zach Eflin (5.018) – $6.0MM
- Jose Alvarado (4.088) – $1.9MM
- Rhys Hoskins (4.053) – $7.6MM
- Seranthony Dominguez (3.131) – $800K. Signed for $725K prior to NT deadline
Pirates (4)
- Ben Gamel (5.029) – $2.9MM. Signed for $1.8MM prior to NT deadline
- Chris Stratton (4.100) – $2.2MM
- Kevin Newman (3.046) – $2.2MM
- Bryan Reynolds (2.163) – $4.5MM
Rangers (4)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (4.000) – $4.9MM
- Willie Calhoun (3.033) – $1.6MM
- Brett Martin (2.151) – $1.1MM
- Taylor Hearn (2.140) – $1.1MM
Rays (14)
- Matt Wisler (5.042) – $1.8MM
- Manuel Margot (5.012) – $5.0MM
- Tyler Glasnow (4.158) – $5.8MM
- Ji-Man Choi (4.076) – $3.5MM. Signed prior to NT deadline for $3.2MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (3.147) – $4.4MM
- Yonny Chirinos (3.137) – $1.2MM
- Yandy Diaz (3.122) – $2.7MM
- Austin Meadows (3.074) – $4.3MM
- Andrew Kittredge (3.070) – $1.6MM
- Jalen Beeks (3.070) – $600K
- Francisco Mejia (3.062) – $1.5MM
- Jeffrey Springs (3.055) – $1.0MM
- Brett Phillips (3.013) – $1.2MM
- Nick Anderson (3.000) – $900K
Red Sox (7)
- Kevin Plawecki (5.167) – $2.0MM. Signed for $2.25MM after NT deadline
- Ryan Brasier (4.109) – $1.4MM. Signed for $1.4MM prior to NT deadline
- Rafael Devers (4.070) – $11.1MM
- Nick Pivetta (3.166) – $3.2MM
- Alex Verdugo (3.078) – $3.2MM
- Christian Arroyo (3.036) – $1.1MM
- Josh Taylor (2.121) – $1.1MM
Reds (10)
- Tyler Naquin (5.033) – $3.6MM
- Luis Cessa (4.131) – $1.6MM
- Luis Castillo (4.101) – $7.6MM
- Amir Garrett (4.099) – $2.2MM
- Jesse Winker (4.080) – $6.8MM
- Tyler Mahle (4.018) – $5.6MM
- Kyle Farmer (3.129) – $2.2MM
- Jeff Hoffman (3.105) – $1.1MM
- Lucas Sims (3.014) – $1.2MM
- Nick Senzel (2.150) – $1.1MM
Rockies (9)
- Daniel Bard (5.103) – $4.8MM. Signed for $4.4MM prior to NT deadline
- Carlos Estevez (5.022) – $3.2MM
- Kyle Freeland (4.144) – $7.0MM
- Robert Stephenson (4.049) – $1.1MM
- Raimel Tapia (4.020) – $3.9MM
- Ryan McMahon (4.006) – $5.5MM
- Garrett Hampson (3.030) – $1.8MM
- Tyler Kinley (3.014) – $1.0MM. Signed for $1.025MM prior to NT deadline
- Peter Lambert (2.116) – $600K
Royals (7)
- Andrew Benintendi (5.062) – $9.3MM
- Adalberto Mondesi (4.088) – $3.2MM
- Brad Keller (4.000) – $5.2MM
- Cam Gallagher (3.106) – $900K
- Scott Barlow (3.030) – $2.4MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (3.002) – $1.4MM
- Nicky Lopez (2.139) – $2.0MM
Tigers (8)
- Michael Fulmer (5.157) – $5.1MM
- Joe Jimenez (4.061) – $1.8MM
- Jeimer Candelario (4.038) – $5.9MM
- Jose Cisnero (4.020) – $1.9MM
- Victor Reyes (3.075) – $1.3MM
- Spencer Turnbull (3.020) – $1.8MM
- Dustin Garneau (3.015) – $1.6MM
- Harold Castro (2.141) – $1.5MM
Twins (6)
- Taylor Rogers (5.145) – $6.7MM
- Tyler Duffey (5.074) – $3.7MM. Signed for $3.8MM prior to NT deadline
- Mitch Garver (4.045) – $3.1MM
- Caleb Thielbar (3.131) – $1.2MM. Signed for $1.3MM prior to NT deadline
- Jharel Cotton (3.052) – $1.2MM. Signed for $700K prior to NT deadline
- Luis Arraez (2.121) – $2.0MM
White Sox (3)
- Lucas Giolito (4.080) – $7.9MM
- Adam Engel (4.058) – $2.2MM
- Reynaldo Lopez (4.004) – $2.8MM
Yankees (16)
- Jameson Taillon (5.110) – $4.7MM
- Joey Gallo (5.103) – $10.2MM
- Gary Sanchez (5.086) – $7.9MM
- Aaron Judge (5.051) – $17.1MM
- Chad Green (5.050) – $4.1MM
- Wandy Peralta (4.168) – $1.7MM
- Jordan Montgomery (4.153) – $4.8MM
- Gio Urshela (4.127) – $6.2MM. Signed for $6.55MM prior to NT deadline
- Luke Voit (3.169) – $5.4MM
- Gleyber Torres (3.162) – $5.9MM
- Miguel Andujar (3.117) – $1.7MM
- Clay Holmes (3.031) – $1.0MM
- Jonathan Loaisiga (3.022) – $1.7MM
- Domingo German (3.017) – $2.1MM. Signed for $1.75MM prior to NT deadline
- Lucas Luetge (3.015) – $1.1MM. Signed for $905K prior to NT deadline
- Kyle Higashioka (3.005) – $1.2MM
The arbitration projections were originally published 10-11-21. Additional information was added 2-17-22.
the Phillies arb class doesnt look as threatening in this model.
also, somewhat curious, how does the model account for guys like Bard, Matzek, and Thielbar who had long layoffs in the middle of their careers?
Dodgers should cut bait on bellinger for that figure. Then they could resign seager and Turner with ease. Kershaw 30 million, kenley 18 million, bellinger 17 million gone that frees up nearly 65 million not including bauer.
5/6 for 150 for trea with opt outs
Seager for 210 for 7 with opt outs
If bauer is off books 90/3 for max scherzer
Go look at the CF list. Who the hell do you think is the better bet?
Spoiler. La isn’t trying to skimp on payroll
At this point Starling Matte has to be considered a better bet than Bellinger. His salary won’t be nearly as big as Belli’s either.
It’s a shame what has happened with both Belli and Yelich. Those guys looked like they were going to be 2 of the best outfielders I’m baseball for a long time. Yelich has never been the same since his knee injury. Surprisingly, the low budget Brewers gave Yeli that extension after his injury but before he proved he could come back from it. Even with him busting as the biggest contract on their team the Brewers still have one of the best 3 teams in the National League. Imagine what they could have done to improve this already great team if they had that Yelich money to spend on players better than him.
I recently watched a video of all of Bellinger’s 2021 combined offensive and defensive highlights. The video was not sped up. It didn’t show a small fraction of the plays. It showed the entire play at normal speed every single time. The entire video was less than 2 minutes long. Over a span of 162+ games this year Cody Bellinger has played less than 2 minutes worth of highlight baseball. That’s really sad. I know the Dodgers will probably keep him because they have the money to spend but… They would probably be better off trying to sign Bellinger to a cheaper deal because he is not worth $16.1 million a year. It’s not like he was unlucky this year or his peripheral stats were good. He just looked terrible. If the Dodgers keep him it will only be because of his name. No other player that performed like him would ever get that kind of money. If Bellinger won’t take a smaller contract the Dodgers would be much better off saving several million dollars a year by just replacing him with Starling Marte. Unlike Bellinger, Marte is actually a good and very productive baseball player. His contract won’t be huge either.
ok but like yelich was actually hitting well over the last two months, yelich wasn’t that disappointing.
Trea is not a FA yet. Bellinger will be our starting CF with Lux at 2b if Seager leaves. Taylor’s a guy I would do everything to keep.
I had forgotten the Braves could still offer Adam Duvall arbitration. I know some people dislike Duvall’s OBP and strikeouts and OPS+/wRC+ as a result. The guy is a good defensive player and is a threat to win two-thirds of the triple crown every season. The Braves should pick up their end of the $7 million mutual option on Duvall especially since it comes with a $4 million buyout. If Duvall turns that down they should still offer him the roughly $9.1 million arbitration salary. The $4 million is gone anyway if he turns the mutual option down so you can’t count that. With Rosario, Pederson and Soler likely leaving in free agency and Acuna injured and Ozuna in purgatory the Braves need all the outfielders for next season they can get. I would definitely take a $9.1 million risk on Duvall if necessary. Best case scenario he does the same thing again and it was a good choice. Worst case scenario his numbers fall off but he still hits for a ton of power and has great defense. Duvall is definitely worth $9.1 million if Bellinger is worth even close to $16.1 million. What do you guys think?
I agree with you. You get a lit of Homer’s ND rbi’s. You need a guy like that in the lineup. Braves are one of the better teams the past few years with a balanced lineup.
The Braves should definitely bring Duvall back. I’m hoping for a 2 year extension.
I thought Duval already declined the option. They can still go to arbitration.
Isn’t Herrera under contract for $11.5mm next year with a $2.5mm buyout?
yeah. still betting he hits the open market though. dont think ge gets $9 unless teams are really scared of the depressed CF market.
A good defensive player who just hit 38 home runs and led the league in RBI’s isn’t worth a $9 million 1 year deal? Didn’t the Braves give Bartolo Colon $12 million when he was 42? If the deal flops it doesn’t hurt you after that. A 1-year $9 million deal is for a good defensive player with a ton of power who just led the league in RBI’s is far less risky than these $300+ million contracts that lock some of these players down for more than a decade. Duvall has been way more valuable than Trout this season because of injury (biggest risk with long term contracts) and a lot of people still say Trout is worth his contract. He’s worth $36 million a year but a good defensive player who can lead the league in home runs and RBI’s isn’t worth $9 million on a 1 year deal the team can walk away from?
Missed WAR,
But did he lead the league in RBI?
What? Yes, yes he did. 113 RBIs, Austin Riley was 2nd with 107. Nice research, gbs.
Questionable,
You missed the joke. “Missed WAR” said it three separate times in his post.
I have seriously considered supporting the site with a subscription, but every time I read an article by TC Zencka that’s chock-full of blatant errors, I have second thoughts.
@Lloyd Emerson: I had a subscription for a quick minute. The lack of ads was great but almost not noticeable. It’s kind of like an Offensive Line in football. You only notice when something goes wrong but in retrospect it was a good thing. I kept hearing that all these special chats and other things were going to come with a subscription. I guess it depends on if you check your E-mail or something? I don’t know. I personally check this site several times a day and ignore my email for days at a time. When I came directly to the site I was never informed if any benefits or “special chats” that only subscribed members could use. I tried it during the free 1-month subscription period. It was nice to have it adless for free but I never saw another single benefit. I wish the site would just set it up so you can find out your benefits directly from the website instead of email. I’ve made so many emails since I was a teenager I can’t keep up with them all. I figured MLBTR would tell me directly my benefits when I went to the site. They never did. I basically missed all the benefits outside of the absence of ads because I’m not a big email person. I wish they would set up some kind of profiles on this site where you can always look at your past posts by the posters name and share directly with people who are like minded. I don’t know though. All I know is I was a subscriber and I never even saw or heard of any special chats or any benefits until after they happened. And that coming from a guy who visits this site probably dozens of times every day. It’s a shame because I REALLY love this site. I wish they would set it up so the benefits were more obvious and not email related and do a 1-month free trial again. I would love to support the site then. From where I was standing the only benefit I ended up receiving was paying to have the ad disappear. The ads suck but… I expected more than that without having to check whichever email I have this account linked to. That’s just my 2 cents. I’m sure other people have their own opinions and they aren’t wrong either. That was my experience though.
Sounds like nothing more than an excuse to cheap out, @Emerson. Pretty insignificant “issue”. As much enjoyment that you seem to get out of your role of Grammar Cop on the board, 30 bucks – or whatever – seems a true pittance there, bud.
I think his question was more about what he would get in return for the 30 bucks. $30 is a lot of money to most people by the way. If he were just going to give away $30 because it’s a “pittance” I’m sure it would be better served making sure some communities have water so their children don’t die. Or to cure childhood cancer so other children don’t die. Some people only have $30 to give away period. Why would an internet site beat those other options out? Do you realize there are countries where even getting a piece of fruit for your infant is a life threatening endeavor? I’m not saying anyone has to give their own hard earned money to anybody but if you are… Why choose a website instead of saving children’s lives? Especially when the only benefit noticeable from the free trial is removing ads? That’s all I noticed. If it was different and I got something more out of it I would understand why people pay. Until then whenever I have $30 bucks to spare I would rather navigate around the ads and give my money away to someone who might save a child dying of dehydration. The free trial definitely made the site better $30 better? Not in anyone’s wildest dreams. You can literally save lives with $30 a year. American money goes a long way overseas in some poverty stricken countries.
Ah.
Idealism. I remember that.
At the behest of the UN, I was part of a group tasked with “peace keeping” in a place there was simply no peace to be had. When I was “finished” I did it again.
So.
I am done. Y’all can do whatever you want to one another. & believe me, I know for a fact the things people can do to one another border on the incredible. Treat each other as well or poorly as you want. Ya know?
But, I’ve done my bit, sir. I joined MLBTR for the same reason I joined the Ruffed Grouse Society or Ducks Unlimited: it brings me some enjoyment.
Love to know how arbitration works that Pedro Severino is projecting to earn the same pay as John Means
Service time is a large factor in arbitration cases…Severino has a full year on Means. This is Severino’s second trip through arbitration while it’s Means’ first trip through. It speaks a lot to how good Means is (or how bad Severino is) that Means is making as much on his first trip through that Severino is making on his second.
Severino will be non-tendered. As will Valaika. He (Valaika) could re-signed to a minor league deal though. My gut also tells me Fry might not be back either. Everyone else they’ll tender a contract. Lopez will be in the pen, and they’ll give Scott another opportunity to harness his control. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Santander traded either this off-season or before the trade deadline.
What will the Orioles do for catcher. Severino caught the majority of their games. If they non-tender him, what is the solution?
Well, they do have a guy in AAA….they’ll sign a stopgap.
You could make a case for offering arbitration; he’s not old and catching market is thin.
They should probably offer him a contract in lieu of arbitration. Would 2 years at around $4 million get it done? O’s paid him $1.8 last year, I think.
But it’s not like the O’s are going to contend and Severino isn’t Johnny Bench.
Play whoever until they get a extra year of Adley. Might be smart to invest in a veteran who wants to mentor a potential superstar.
I imagine Adley will be up for a large majority of 2022, but in the mean time they’ll have Wynns already, they could throw a bone to Brett Cumberland, or they could sign any one of the free agent veterans that float around between AAA/MLB every year (e.g. Wolters, Lucroy, Lavarnway, Brantly, Federowicz, Graterol, etc.)
The common thought is that Wynns will back up Adley, even if Adley doesn’t start the season on the major league roster. Ciuffo and Cumberland are the most likely candidates to start the season on the roster.
He’s below average in all categories
except consistency!
I don’t think they’ll do it, but you could make a non-tender case for Bellinger. Also, the Royals might not be keen on paying Benintendi $9.3MM for his walk year. His fWAR this year was only 2.1, even though that makes it the second-best season of his career.
Agree. As a FA, he likely pulls nowhere near $16M per. I could see them non-tendering and offering 2/20 or 2/20 with a 3rd year option/vesting option.
I could see KC cutting Benintendi, and having him sign for about the same with the Mets to replace Conforto.
Royals will bring back Benintendi.
Zero chance the Dodgers non-tender Bellinger.
Correct
I’d strongly disagree that Bellinger wouldn’t pull anywhere near 16m. It’s hard to forget exactly how good he was not all that long ago. If he’d take a 1 or 2 year deal, someone would pay him 20m a year easy. The Dodgers will tender him and take the gamble he rights it in LA.
yeah but it is also what have you done for me lately. You aren’t going to pick up someone hitting sub .200 unless you see them as a reclamation project or they hit for a LOT of power. this year when he wasn’t injured his main value has been defense and that isn’t worth 16mm
I think Margot goes as well. TB is too deep and too poor to ante up $5M for someone probably not a starter. Just like with Renfroe last year, I think this is a buying opportunity for someone.
With TB being so poor, it will be interesting to see if they pony up the 6 mil for Tyler Glasnow when he is going to miss next season entirely. A bigger market team would do it, just to keep him in the fold. Otherwise you lose a guy who has demonstrated great talent when healthy.
I was thinking the exact same thing
I could see them tendering a contract then seeking out a favorable trade.
Rehab contract probably, like what the Padres did with Clevinger
I wasn’t aware that the NYY were already over the salary cap for 2022. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t trade some of the arb guys, or DFA them, and it doesn’t mean that they couldn’t blow up the payroll to $250M or so, but it feels good that they are already over.
New CBA (assuming they eventually agree on one) might change the luxury tax rules too.
The reason for all their odd payroll machinations in 2021 was to get under the luxury tax threshold this year to reset it setting themselves up to spend in 2022. Beyond that:
1) Where in the article does it say they’re already over? Seems inevitable, but a number of those players will packaged and traded.
2) Related, how do we (or they) know they’re over without a new CBA and new luxury tax thresholds? We can’t answer question one without answering question two.
Overall, though, if the Yankees are clearly over, and a new CBA is in place, it sets them up to spend quite freely the next several years. Same for the Red Sox.
@Lord don’t pay any attention to him. He’s just the typical Sox fan with their typical fascination with the Yankees.
That’s a rather odd statement. Firstly, I comment on almost everything. Secondly, I also commented on TB and Margot. Thirdly, why wouldn’t my primary concern be the NYY, TBR, and Jays?
“it feels good that they are already over.” that’s the typical troll response you usually give.
Why wouldn’t your primary concern be about the Yankees, Rays and Jays you ask. Beats me. As a Yankees fan let me quote Neil Young as to our thoughts about other teams, including the ALE
“It doesn’t me that much to me to mean that much to you.” Our main concern is our team.
“It doesn’t me that much to me to mean that much to you.”
==========================================
One of the greatest lines in R&R history.
That said, so far, we played the NYY and TBR in the playoffs, so yes, I am worried about them.
And I have absolutely no problem admitting that I root against the NYY. And I’d bet real money that most NYY fans of my generation root hard against the RS. Anyone in here disagree?
But none of that means anything. I want the RS to be the best team in the division. That means that, not only do we have to improve, it also means I don’t want the other teams to improve. There are no other third ways.
JoeSays: Brother, although I understand how arbitration works, I don’t understand why many underperforming players get such substantial raises. It’s counterintuitive. I guess it’s also very subjective.
Joe Says, while he is a Red Sox fan and I’m a Yankee fan, I’ve found him to be reasonable, in other words, not someone trolling. My main point revolves around question 2. We don’t know what the luxury tax thresholds will be. My second but less obvious point is that he might be more concerned if the Yankees are clearly over. They’ll be more free to spend if they know they can’t get under the next couple years and in the first year without an escalating penalty already in place. I do think they are going to spend.
The Yankees are not already over the tax. Even if they tendered everyone on this list, which they won’t, they would still be under
Ronk3251 hour ago
The Yankees are not already over the tax.
========================================
Without a deep dive:
Arbitration (per MLB-R) 80.4
Contracted (per FG) 146.9
Total 227.3
Those numbers are not accurate. Their total commitments before arbitration are around $120-$125M
That’s just for the signed players. Add benefits and pre-arb/ 40-man roster players brings it up to $140-$145. Then $80M in projected arb salaries.
That said, there is not currently a luxury tax threshold for 2022, so nobody is technically on track to be over.
Gotcha, I wasn’t including the benefits
Like I said, this is not meant to be a deep dive. Joe Says seems to thing it makes no difference, but if the RS and NYY are bidding for Semien, for example, I want the RS to have more available funds with which to bid.
Well I don’t see the Yankees making a serious pursuit for Semien so that shouldn’t be an issue. Also the Yankees and Red Sox are not restricted by the luxury tax. Both are more than capable of blowing past it if they so choose so one team having more luxury tax space doesn’t mean much
Joe Brady: Semien makes sense for you guys, not for us. His defense at short stop is below average. I know you were just using him as an example but I know he’s been attached to multiple teams too.
Also, I hate the Red Sox with a passion and believe Alex Verdugo epitomizes the team – that said, I’m still pissed you all have a Yankee on your team:
Xander – he’s a class act on and off the field; he was a Yankee fan and wears #2 for his favorite player, Jeter, and we have a desperate need at short stop where he’s one of the best offensive guys at that position in the game.
Basically, he’s the antithesis of the Red Sox.
Thank you for hating us. Anything else is unnatural and a crime against nature.
And I like Xander more than Betts. Betts is a HOF, but Xander seems like more of a team leader and always feels like he is speaking from the heart.
Actually they might be. Sporadic has 2022 payroll at 142m and those numbers are over 70m
What are you even talking about? Adding up the estimated arbitration figures to the guaranteed contracts they have on the books for next year, it looks like the Yankees are about $20m UNDER the luxury tax threshold (this is of course using this year’s $210m as the limit because with the current CBA expiring Dec 1, we don’t know what the limit, or system as a whole for that matter, will be next year.
After looking into this a little bit more, there seems to be some differences in arbitration projection figures, depending on what source you’re using. With that in mind, using this year’s $210m as the threshold (because we just don’t know what is going to happen moving forward with a new CBA), the Yankees project to be over that figure in current/real world dollars… but according to the AAV of the contracts, they are projected to be under the threshold. They stayed under the threshold this season to reset their tax rates and penalties, so I fully expect them to spend money this offseason (going by fairly recent trends, the Yankees spend over the threshold until the penalties top out, they duck under and reset anything, then spend again). How much will they spend? Who knows… but I do expect there to be some considerable roster movement this offseason.
Add up the projected arb salaries from this article: About $80M
Existing AAV’s: Cole $36M, Stanton $25M, Chapman $17.467M, DJ $15M, Britton $14M, Odor $8.25M, Hicks $10M, Severino $10M, Gardner $2.575M (due to player option). O’Day $1.575M (similar to Gardner).
Total: $139.867M
Less payments from other teams: $8.25M (Odor), $3M (Stanton)
Estimate for Benefits included in CBT, 40-man roster players, pre-arb players:
Min $18M
$80M Arb + $140M current CBT player payroll, – 11.25M + $18M =$226.75
The reset and then big spend has only happened once before. No guarantee it happens again. The got under to save money this year due to the decline in revenue due to Covid. There are already reports Hal wants to continue to stay under. I would imagine whether they choose to go over or not will depend largely on what happens with the new CBA. I really wouldn’t expect a massive increase in spending from Hal given the much lower revenues of the past 2 seasons.
Yankees CBT payroll tracker: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hl2xgQQReB8qPSoa2Y…
The Rangers are covering the majority of what is left on Odor’s deal (Yankees are on the hook for about $1m total and that’s all that counts for their luxury tax purposes), and Stanton costs the Yankees $22m/yr for luxury tax purposes as well. Not trying to nitpick, but that’s $11m or so that won’t count toward the Yankees’ luxury tax. As of right now, they’re projected under (again, depending on where you look and what estimates are being used), but they obviously have holes they need to fill still… and I’m not sure they actually tender contracts to all 19 of their arbitration eligible players, nor do I think they’ll all be part of next year’s roster either.
I subtracted the $11.25M for Stanton and Odor. I didn’t count it in the total. As of right now they are projected at over $225M with the current roster. But no, not all of the current roster will be on next year’s roster.
I wouldn’t blow past the tax with that roster. Good but needs some fine tuning and balance. Gallo has to be non-tendered. I never saw much of him in TX but boy he looked overmatched and lost at the plate. Not that he is a bad player but just not what this team needs.
I agree they definitely need to balance out the roster some… but at this point they have a roster that is about 80% complete or so… and you can’t be the Yankees and have a high payroll but not complete the roster. You don’t trade for a reigning MVP on a long term deal, or sign an Ace in his prime for big money and not fill out the entire roster. They have a lot of money coming off the books after next season, and at least we can all agree that the $31m/yr spent on Chapman and Britton combined won’t be re-spent on 2 relievers… and the estimated $10m for Gallo will probably be gone too (does anyone see the Yankees signing Gallo long term? Because I sure don’t). $40ish million is a considerable chunk of money coming off the books in just those 3 players after next season (I understand some of that money will be reinvested into the roster though), so even if they spend big in free agency this year, they can reel back down the payroll after next season.
I think you need Gallo. If Frazier was healthy, I might think about it, but he isn’t. You could go with Stanton in LF, but that’s dangerous. Gallo’s weakness is that he is a true three-outcome player, and that’s not what the NYY need. But he is also a pretty good player.with a 4.4 bWAR/650 over the past four seasons.
He’ll frustrate the crap out of you, but I still think he is a keeper.
“Gallo has to be non-tendered.”
Bananas, sir.
Look. I understand Joey Gallo’s batting average is aesthetically unappealing. I do get it.
However, he put up 4.6 WAR in ’20.
He has a career OPS of .821. He plays Gold Glove caliber defense on the grass. He even runs well, & has some positional versatility. Gallo is a virtual lock to hit 40+ jacks in The Stadium. A lineup full of equivalent players would storm MLB.
This is a good player whom the Yanks gave up Real Assets to acquire.
Straight up: no possible way that happens.
& I am phrasing this as gently as I am able to.
They are banking on the players winning the CBT in full. Then they’ll have about 25 million to spend, with a little left over for a trade deadline addition.
Just looking at the A’s top 4, they would all make 2x that on the free agent market. Bassist 3x
Sean Manaea – $10.2MM
Chris Bassitt – $8.8MM
Matt Chapman – $9.5MM
Matt Olson – $12.0MM
Sean Manaia isn’t worth $10 million a year much less 20! He’s a fifth starter. I expect him to be traded this winter. Chapman isn’t worth 9.5 million either.
5th started and pitchers to gamble on make about that much.
Manaea is not a fifth starter. He’s clearly a fourth.
what do these terms even mean?
I could see the Yankees trying to get Matt Chapman to be a big lefty bat at first and hit around Judge and Stanton. Judge, Chapman, Stanton and Gallo would be a nice murders row. Get a leadoff guy that gets on base and it would be fun to watch.
I think the Yankees will do some serious editing of the roster. Guys like Frazier, Sanchez, Taillon, Voit and maybe Torres could be gone. If the NL gets the DH, teams will send prospects for Sanchez and Voit… a team like the Phillies or Reds would love Torres. Taillon could be replaced by a free agent. Many teams would take a chance on him. That’s $25 mil in savings right there… adding some prospects. The Yanks could afford to go out and get a shortstop a CF and another arm if needed. Kluber could come back… Severino should be ready… German will be back… Montgomery, Cole and Cortes Jr were solid.
Chapman would play 3rd on basically any team. He’s not moving to 1B.
I meant Olson… my bad.
Chapman plays third and bats right handed.
LOL
I get that there is an experience and “awards” component but is Trea Turner really worth 4x what Bryan Reynolds is?
Yes! SS will out earn OF. A case can be made that Trea is one of the top 3 at his position. Not so with Bryan.
A case can be made that Trea is one of the best players in the game. However, you cannot compare players with different years of control. Turner will be a FA after 2022.
That would have to be a really, really, really strong case. He’s good, but not sure he is quite on that level yet.
Well, Turner did lead all shortstops in fWAR this year and was 2nd in wRC+, so that’s a pretty good start to making a strong case.
Turner has two more full seasons of service time than Reynolds
More like three more full seasons which makes the case even stronger for Turner earning more than Reynolds.
This is Reynolds 1st time in arb. And it will be Turner’s last, so the salary difference is justified
I think KIner-Falefa and Hearns are the only two that get paid for 22. I can easily see others non-tendered even though the cost is not prohibitive for any of them.
16 M for Bellinger????? I cant see that at all. 16M is for guys with productive bats, and Cody was nothing but a defensive specialist in ’21.
Empirejim; the belief is that bellinger was hurt and needed more time from shoulder to other injuries and the Dodgers can afford to pay him and see what he does. If he could return to form huge
@Benjamin That isnt my belief. Going back, Bellinger has been about a .230 hitter since the first couple months of 2019. Not due to injuries. Due to a severely flawed swing. Injuries have only magnified what was already an issue.
I think the Dodgers will trade Bellinger. They have plenty of inhouse replacements… obviously because Bellinger has been hurt all year. They might use that money and resign Taylor… Betts could play CF, so could Pollack. Lux… Peters… they aren’t hurting for CFers.
Trading Bellinger saves them some money to spend on guys like Scherzer, Kershaw, Taylor… and it should bring them in some nice prospects to help build up the farm after they traded a good bunch away.
Lux has virtually no CF experience.
And LA waived Peters.
Bellinger with that high arb figure and his struggles the past couple years is not going to return any highly ranked prospects. Maybe a guy in a teams 15-20 range and one in the 20-25 range.
bellinger will probably have no value. They should just non-tender him.
he’ll be the starting CF unless traded
Sure but if you do not tender him you risk losing him and getting nothing in return. 2 years ago he was one of the top players in the game.
Cody is nothing without sign stealing.
edgy
He’s only 26. Former RoY, former MVP, has been productive every season outside of 2021 when he was injured. You non-tender him and he signs elsewhere and you get nothing. The Dodgers have two more years of control over him and can afford his arbitration salary. It never goes to arbitration. He’ll sign a one or two-year deal before.
My point wasnt that the Dodgers can or cant afford, or that they should or shouldnt tender. My point was that if an arbiter thinks what he did in ’21 justifies a 16M salary the arb system is broken.
We see arb guys get big raises for putting up good numbers. Shouldnt we also see arb guys take hits when they tank as well?
Goes both ways. What about all those years when Bellinger massively outproduced what he got paid? If they tank, teams can non tender. Ain’t happening with Bellinger though.
I believe they listed him as $16.1 million because that’s what he was paid this year. Basically, this projection lists him as not getting any raise over his 2021 salary, but I don’t think he would get a salary reduction either.
The arbitration system doesn’t allow for salaries to go down. It’s a feature, not a flaw of the process. Since players in arbitration can’t take their services out onto the open market, the system guarantees they’ll at least make last year’s salary, and in most cases will get a raise. If the team thinks that’s too much, they have the option to non-tender or work out a contract both sides like.
Actually it does but only by a maximum of 20%. mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration
Even guys who are missing the entire year with injury before arbitration happens so not see their salary go down. Can you name even 5 people who have had their salary drop?
It’s one thing to be technically possible. Doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen
I always enjoy looking over Matt’s arbitration projections. It’s one of the best features of this site. Well done!
I see a lot of Rays in the non-tendered ocean. Margot, Yarborough, maybe even Wendle, though I think that would be a mistake (the other two are reasonably expendable; they have a ton of LH pitchers and OFers.).
Zero percent chance they non tender a guy with 2.6 fWAR in Wendle
They’ll tender then trade before non tendering a good player for cost
Oh ya, a trade is the most likely scenario. As (I think) Dan O’Dowd said, “there isn’t a manager in MLB who wouldn’t want Joey Wendle”, who might be (now that Josh Reddick is toast) probably the soundest fundamental player in the game.. 4M is fair for him.
But it’s a lot for the Rays.
Choi would get nontendered before Wendle
My hope is the Braves finally cut bait with Camargo.
I’m curious to see what they do with Duvall and Sororka as far as figures go. No doubt they’ll want both back.
I think they will try to bring back Duvall but he will probably decline his half their mutual option, becoming a free agent again. So far only the Marlins showed interest in him so maybe he can come back with another one year with an option deal instead of the Braves having to trade prospects for him again at the trade deadline. Soroka is definitely gonna be tendered Braves still believe he will come back.
I also wonder if they’ll try to get a bag of baseballs for Newcomb.
Rob Refsnyder is arbitration eligible????? Is there a special arbitration process for HOFers?????
You stole my take…lol! Seriously, though, Refsnyder was to Yankee fans what Skip Schumaker was to Cardinals fans!
Less then a million? That shows you the system is broken.
Amazing how Yankees have 19 players eligible for arbitration… anyone care to venture a guess on Yankees manager next year?… Carlos Beltran ?
Aaron Boone
Aaron Boone regrettably.
Susan Waldman
The day the Yankees resigned clemens. that’s my memory of her. It was for sure over over the top.
“Roger’s in George’s BAWX! Of all the dramatic things!”
Would love to see them make the change and put Beltran in the manager position. He got the short end of the stick when the Mets parted ways with him. Ridiculous that he was punished, but no current players.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Boone going anywhere, and don’t see any significant changes occurring to the roster. So it will be a repeat next season of the Yanks failing to advance in the playoffs again.
aaron boone
Jon Gruden
When do we get an article about what Tepera said about the Astros?
They ought to look into why the white Sox team ops is higher at home than on the road. Tepera giving the Astros a bunch of bulletin board material was pretty smart on his part. Now he’ll get to the his offseason plans quicker.
Matt’s model is usually in the ballpark, so I’m curious what went into tabbing Vladdy jr. at only 7.9M. Talk among the analysts and insiders covering the team is that he may break the record for 1st time arb, and after an MVP caliber season where he put arguably the best offensive numbers in the AL if not all of baseball, while being more than solid defensively, that thinking doesn’t feel like a stretch.
I think this has to do more with Vlad’s first two seasons being good rather than great. While his 2021 was obviously otherworldly, Vlad put up 2.1 WAR in his first season (2019) and only 0.6 in 2020, which comes to something like 1.6 WAR over a full season. That’s 10.5 WAR in total, even counting the larger 2020 number..
By contrast, Cody Bellinger (who has the first-time arb record) put up 3.9, 4.2, and 8.6 (16.7 total WAR) and the guy whose record he beat, Kris Bryant, put up 5.3, 7.3, and 5.7 in his first three sesasons (18.3 WAR).
Vlad also loses some value for his fielding (at least according to B-R), where Bryant was about even value and Bellinger won a Gold Glove.
And if youre wondering (like i was), Bryant and Bellinger’s 1st arb salaries were $10.8M and $11.6, respectively.
Good points.
Defensive metrics underestimate Vlad’s defense by the way. For much of the season, Vlad was repeatedly bailing out other infielders by stretching to throws that were too short, too high or too wide. The defensive metrics don’t reflect that.
I wonder what consensus HOF odds for each player was after 3 years.
The huge gap between really good and great players gets ignored by arbitration.
The Mariners would have to be ecstatic to get those arbitration numbers.
Dipotent Dipotables
Boyd, Goodrum, Greiner and Krol sounds like a law firm, but I think it is actually Al Avila’s DFA list!
Would you include Jiminez? 2.8 mil for an almost 6 era?
That’s going to be interesting. I’d say no to $2.8MM, but I do hope they work something out to keep him.
I don’t see Goodrum going anywhere. His versatility, his speed and his power are too valuable. Greiner will be an interesting call due to the shortage of C, and Rogers being out. Hoping that Tigers and Boyd work something out. His charity work makes him one of my favorites. Krol was evidence that the Tigers need more bullpen depth.
I think Niko’s gone. $2.9MM is way too much money for a non-starter who performed poorly overall for the last two seasons. We’ll already have Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Paredes, Hill and Cameron (and possibly Reyes) competing for utility/backup spots as it is – all younger and cheaper players with plenty of speed and more upside. Boyd does seem like a good guy, but that’s not reason enough to tender him a contract.
Choi and Yarbrough a $4.4MM and $3.5MM seem a bit exposed on the Rays. Would they also move Glasnow for pennies on the dollar? Some team would take him on the 2023 upside.
I would go for Glasnow. If his salary is $5.8, and he misses a year, then maybe you pay another $5.8M for 2023. I’d pay $11.6M for a healthy 2023, with the hope that he contributes enough to be worth a QO,
Right. Maybe the Rays will see it that way, but $5.8M for no production is a lot for them. I do think they’ll shop him to see what they might get and there will be interest. If not enough, they’ll hold him.
Glasnow for Bellinger
I think they give Glasnow a rehab contract
Man, Vladdy and Teo at under 20m combined is wild. Plenty of guys making that much on their own who don’t touch either of their numbers, let alone combined.
Arbitration and free agent setup in MLB is still really odd.
What’s really odd about it?
Maybe all contracts should be one year. Start at the league minimum with reachable incentives based on the type of player. Lead off guys get more for hits and stolen bases. Power guys get more for homers.
Leadoff guys attempting steals without a sign, Power guys swinging for the fence every at bat. And after the game everyone complains they didn’t get enough playing time. Sounds great.
The only people that complain about the current system are the people who don’t understand why it’s set up that way. You can’t say Vlad he should make more money while also saying the league needs a salary cap. The small market teams need that early control over players. These people that think the salary cap ensures parity must not watch other sports. If you think other sports have better parity than mlb I got two words for you. Patriots, Warriors.
Not sure what your point was but lots of people who understand the system far better than you do complain about it for very good reason.
Most people who complain are children who literally have no clue how it works but don’t confuse that with the system actually being good.
Wonder who all with get NT’d by the Pirates. Honestly wouldn’t rule out a Newman NT. He’s good defensively, but when you put up an OPS of just .570 in the last 2 seasons (compared to Chris Davis’ .550 OPS in his last 3 seasons), you’re not going to stick around,
Shrieve, Kuhl, Gamel, and Perez to start. I think they like Brault and Newman (for defense).
Beyond my ability to appreciate the projections here – BELLINGER !6 Mil ? – – Judge 17 Mil & Devers 11 Ml.
Help me understand how Bellinger rate this excessive projection with a climbing K rate ( 30% so far ) and regression in other offensive numbers. – The league has adjusted to him.
The system is not designed to pass judgement on the prior year’s performance – it is more based on the cumulative performance through this point in a player’s career. As a result it is extremely rare for a player to get a pay cut. And he made $16.1m for 2021. The max allowable pay cut is 20%. When you’ve average 4WAR/150 games you’re not likely to have your pay cut after year even as terrible as his ’21.
lol yanks are a disaster.
19 young players in arbitration is a disaster because?
1. Young people are stupid
2. Cheap players are bad
3. They have too many players
The Yanks aren’t a disaster but there does need to be some changes with their lineup and defense and possibly manager.
That’s a perfect take. To many homerun or strikeout guys. Need to balance it out.
For the Marlins, Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson and Jon Berti are very likely to be non-tendered. Richard Belier and Dylan Floro may be on the bubble along with other bullpen pieces. Garrett Cooper is on the bubble as well, especially with Lewin Diaz looking like he’s ready, and Jesus Aguilar being a lock for the 1B/DH role..
I think Alfaro has value. He should be signed and then dealt, Catching is very thin. Alfaro had a bad year, but he was once a top prospect and put up 3 decent years. He could be a nice bounce back candidate.
I hope that he could do something, but we’ve seen him regress in the last two years. His defense isn’t likely to ever be decent because he’s been pretty sloppy and lackadaisical in his effort there.
With Alfaro and the Marlins, it’ a numbers game now. If we can trade him for something, great! If not, he’s still very likely gone.
I’m surprised Higgy is only at 1.2MM. Feels like he should be in his third round of arbitration.
Looking at his stats it feels like he should be in AAA.
54 plus million in arby for those A’s players. They’re definitely trading most of those players. I’d be shocked if the cheap owner pays them
Mondesi did not even play 60 games! he’s not worth $3.2 million.
The Yankees roster management is just terrible. I know Covid has screwed things up and I’ll admit I’m not as aware of trends as I used to be but every aspect of the roster seems to be poorly constructed or ignored from a structural standpoint.
They seem to view structure like a renter views home ownership and end up constantly fighting or having to compensate for poor structure instead of having structure work for you by producing benefit at every turn like Tampa Bay.
Could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure Luis Torrens isn’t arb-eligible until 2023. B-R agrees.
Looking forward to the potential nontender list. That’s when the offseason really gets going.
I agree 100%. I was hoping to acquire Renfroe before TB got him. So I was shocked that TB couldn’t move him, even if just for a future BP piece. I’m not sure teams put enough effort into moving/acquiring some of these guys.
Just imo, but I think Margot would be a nice fit for the NYM, and they might be able to get him cheap. Glasnow would be a good gamble for a lot of teams. I don’t think Bellinger is moving, but as a RS fan, I’d be happy gambling on him. Benintendi & Gallo should have homes, but might not.
I could be wrong but it appears that J.B. Wendelken is not listed with the Diamondbacks here.
I think Ian Happ gets a pretty good pay raise. His last 2 months he was really good. He had awful start. Still managed to hit 25 homeruns.
Gio Urshela – $6.2MM
Luke Voit – $5.4MM
Gleyber Torres – $5.9MM
No to all.
It’s crazy how many terrible players are millionaires
Luis Garcia of the Phils is still arb eligible – didn’t have enough service in 2021 to reach FA.
Colin Rea is for Brews as well, though fairly likely to be non-tendered.
Here are my predictions for January 2022 arbitration season – at least as far as MLB Backstops are concerned:
Cam Gallagher (Royals), $800K for first year
Danny Jansen (Blue Jays), $1.9M for first year
Dustin Garneau (Tigers), $900K for first year
Francisco Mejia (Rays), $1.2M for first year
Grayson Greiner (Tigers), $900K for first year
Results from a new machine learning model for predicting catcher compensation first year of arbitration eligibility.
It’s tough out there for catchers
Am I the only one who thinks Trea Turner is heavily underrated? He seems overlooked and I’m surprised he hasn’t been signed to a long term deal