The Mets have not approached outfielder Brandon Nimmo about a potential extension, despite his apparent willingness to stay in New York, per Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Nimmo will reach free agency after this season, his age-29 season. Nimmo is an on-base machine when healthy, but he’s only once appeared in more than 100 games in a season.
It’s certainly possible that New York is ready to let Nimmo walk after the season. The Mets proved their willingness to take a hard line with departing free agents with Michael Conforto, Nimmo’s longtime running mate in the outfield. Conforto remains a free agent now.
Furthermore, this winter’s signings of Mark Canha and Starling Marte protect New York somewhat against Nimmo’s potential departure. Center fielders are in short supply leaguewide, which could make Nimmo an intriguing target despite his injury history. And the duo of Marte and Canha don’t perhaps carry enough glove to man the position full-time. But they ought to be enough to provide the Mets leverage in a potential Nimmo negotiation. According to Nimmo’s comments, however, that discussion is entirely hypothetical.
When healthy, Nimmo has been a first-class performer, posting a 135 wRC+ for his career and roughly 4.4 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. On the other hand, Nimmo’s never actually had 600 plate appearances in a season. Therein lies the issue facing the Mets in deciding whether or not to offer Nimmo a long-term deal.
Don’t do it.
Mets centerfielder next season. Aaron Judge
Mets win offseason. Cashman is fired (finally).
Yankees win World Series.
The fact that Confortio isn’t signed should be an eye opener to all those people who knock players that sign extensions. Nothing is guaranteed
Extend him! His skill set (OB%) should age well.
Unless Nimmo is able to play a full season this year, any extension Nimmo signs should contain a ton of escalators based on how many ABs he takes. He has missed considerable time in all but one season to date so I don’t see any team taking a gamble that he’ll find a way to stay healthy as his gets into his Age 30+ seasons.
“On the other hand, Nimmo’s never actually had 600 plate appearances in a season.”
Nimmo will be flipped for an arm before the deadline. Just watch. New sheriff in town.
I seriously doubt that will happen heading into postseason play, and certainly not with the money Cohen has.
An on-base machine. He just needs to stay healthy which is out of his control. With the new and improved lineup, I think Nimmo will have a monster year.
Health is certainly something players have a good amount of control over. Not 100%, but it’s certainly not something that is “out of his control.”
The types of injuries Nimmo has been suffering certainly seem to be out of his control. Some fellas have no luck.
I really hope you’re right, haha. A couple of his injuries have been sort of flukey, but we’ll see.
Neck issues can be an indicator of spinal or arthritic conditions. I love Nimmo, but if it comes down to a 5 year contract, they have to let him go. The only other option I can see is heavily loading with incentives. Brandon is all about being in the field. If he wants 12 mil/yr, offer him 16 with incentives. Then if he chooses to leave ala Wheeler, Syndergaard, Conforto, then that’s his earned choice.
Does he become a different, more productive player during his age 30-35 seasons than his 24-29? VERY doubtful. How many injuries does he try to play through this year without telling anyone to prove how durable he is in a contract year? How many players with his history suddenly become more healthy the second half of their careers? Very, very few. I just feel Brandon’s 85 starts can be covered if they have to be. After all, shouldn’t the Mets be used to NOT having him available?
But hey, the Mets don’t have a budget, so it really comes down to helps them become World Series Champions. Nimmo certainly can this year if things go their way for a change. Maybe next year, too. But after that? Scherzer, deGrom and Bassitt have to make 30 starts each and all be healthy in October for that to happen.
Small market clubs are locking in guys early and large market clubs are letting more of them test free agency.
Nimmo gets a QO, signs somewhere else and the Mets get a draft pick. This is the way.
They did offer Conforto a QO, but offering one to Nimmo? @$19M is a lot to pay for that skillset.
Nimmo is better than Conforto. “That skill set”, getting on base, is the most important aspect of hitting.
He’s better than Conforto but he has a lot of trouble staying on the field. That’s a pretty big deal when it comes to a QO or a contract extension
That’s true. I guess if I were gonna extend him I’d look for a bit of a discount because of his health issues.
Not sure I’d say he’s better than Conforto. Other than walking, there’s little else he does. Arm isn’t strong enough for CF, injury prone before the age of 30, and Marte can step in and take over CF when he’s gone.
I say let him go. There’s others riding the bench that could play LF and slide Canha over to RF. Money can be spent elsewhere.
But he is awful driven run
That OB% is gold. Fans downplay the importance of simply getting in base (perhaps more importantly AVOIDING OUTS) but that’s a wrong understanding. Getting on base (avoiding outs) is everything on offense.
@Cosmo2 To your point, I think fans overlook it because the Mets weren’t able to drive in runs. With this new ineup, Nimmo will score a ton. He’s a huge part of the Mets offense.
QOs gone forever.
QOs are only gone if an agreement on an International Draft happens by July 25th. If not, the QO system remains the same.
QOs are only gone if an agreement on an International Draft happens by July 25th. If not, the QO system remains the same.
QOs are only gone if an agreement on an International Draft happens by July 25th. If not, the QO system remains the same.
QOs are only gone if an agreement on an International Draft happens by July 25th. If not, the QO system remains the same.
QOs are only gone if an agreement on an International Draft happens by July 25th. If not, the QO system remains the same.
QOs are only gone if an agreement on an International Draft happens by July 25th. If not, the QO system remains the same.
got it.
Please stop
ChrisG,
Where’s our lucky seven?
QOs are gone forever in the new deal. A departing FA has to sign a significant contract for a spender like the Mets to get a draft pick and it will be way back.
2023: Nimmo in the Bronx, Judge in Queens
Unfortunately, it might be best to not extend him. Poor dude is made of tissue paper
I wonder what Nimmo could realistically be thinking an extension would be worth. Particularly in terms of years.
He’s not going to be a young free agent. His bat looks a lot better as a CF than as a corner outfielder. But while he can handle CF now, he’s not elite; as he ages is he going to be able to stick at all.
Add in the health issues, and I have a hard time going more than 4 years. Maybe even less, depending how much is he able to play this season.
He’s not a very good CFr now so he’ll certainly age off of it.
The difference between Nimmo and Conforto is that Nimmo is actually improving defensively as a cf coming into this season. That’s why he’s there rather than Marte.
Conforto had declined as a rf last year.
Yea Nimmo got better but I don’t really trust defensive metrics in a sample size of just one season. I wouldn’t trust that his improvement will last.
No, he’s in center because Marte has the best outfield arm. Period.
Definitely no Cal Ripkin Jt. Guy can’t stay on the field for even half the season. Let him go. You can pay a rookie to do the same performance of not being on the field for more than half the season but at much less of a price tag.
A .393 OBP is not at all easy to replicate.
@gbs42
When he only plays half the games, due to injury, of course that number will be inflated. Are you going to pay for the guy to have an OBP like that for half the season and the other half his On Injury List Percentage (OILP)is 1.000?
a career 393 obp over 1400+ AB is not something to sneeze at. Yes it may be in shortened time frames but the fact if he had one more healthy year he would have a career war higher than conforto in maybe 60-65% of the AB of him.
Hick received 7 for 77 and i personally think Nimmo is worth more even in limited action. i think 5 for 80 with incentives based on time on IL or plate appearance and awards that could push it to 5 – 100 with club option or two. I dont think the mets have anything in the pipeline for outfield specific players, but i could be wrong and this would hedge this while the system restocks.
What kind of awards are you thinking of – 100+ games? $20M per? Would you be good with $10M per if he played half the games, because that’s what you’re going to get.
2-3m related to games played … maybe 1m for 120 140 and 150 games (or plate appearance equivalent) played
250k between silver slugger, gold glove, all star, and mvp voting
I think its fair considering he is roughly around 2 WAR at roughly half the games played in a season (for example just last season it was 3.6 at 92 games at approx 8M per war he would have been worth around 30M).
How does being injured half the season inflate your OB%?
You don’t have as many ABs over the full season. I’d like to see multiple 140+ games played by this guy to see if that OB% is legit. Playing 60 games doesn’t mean you actually have such an OB% over 162 season.
It’s legit. His sample size is large enough to know who he is. Playing less doesn’t make things easier.
@Old York
You might want to double check your abacus “Old” Man
He’s still worth a good amount of Win Shares even in half a season. Dumb to toss away value like that. His half season is more valuable than most players’ full seasons.
I think the Mets should wait and see how durable he is this year. If he can do a full season , or as close to a full season as possible, then Steve Cohen will have the $$ to pay him. If he sits too long on the IL, sure let him walk. I don’t doubt his resolve or commitment to the team. I appreciate his OBP ability, and his commitment to improve defensively. But he needs to stay on the field.
I thought they should have offered a 5 year 70 mil
Or 4 year 55 mil type deal. I think he would have accepted that and that could be risky with his health issues but not disastrous. Plus, I think nimmo has a solid year and healthy and he goes into free agency looking for a $80+ deal. He is a solid player. Great guy. Fans love him. And always does his job. Doesn’t go out there for a home run when down by two. He goes out there for a single. a missing art in todays game.
Nimmo brings more than the numbers would indicate. If he stays healthy this season, extend him.
Can’t keep everybody. I just don’t see how Nimmo is a $80 million or more player unless he has a big season with 550 plus PA.
Sometimes teams are better off letting guys walk. In the instance of judge who others of brought up, Yanks would be crazy to give him $300 mil too. He’s been brittle three of his last five seasons
I’d like to see the teams win/loss record when he starts. On base is great and all, but he also has to be a run producer now. The guys at the bottom flip the lineup so now he has to be an rbi guy, too. But first, he’s gotta play more than 90 games. If the Mets have to keep finding 5th outfielders to start 45% the games, what good is he?
You can’t judge a player based on team win loss record. Math simply doesn’t work that way. There are a gazillion variables in winning or losing a game; absolutely no way you could break it down to one player. Getting on base is something you CAN judge a player on, whether he scores or not once he gets on base has little to do with him.
So you are saying getting on base is a useless factor in determining wins or losses then. You can’t have it both ways! He’s ‘valuable’ and irreplaceable because of his walks, but you can’t pin wins or losses on his walks. Making my head hurt…
No, I’m saying getting on base in general is incredibly important. In terms of ONE player, there are too many other variables (pitching, defense, luck, other players, weather ect) to understand an individual’s exact impact on his teams record. You can’t pin wins and losses on ANY individual player, except when a pitcher throws a shutout. Bottom line, team record with a certain player in the lineup is useless for determining that players value for a million reasons. None of those reasons include the idea that OBP isn’t important. You’re just entirely misreading all of this.