At 18-33, the Nationals possess the second-worst record in the National League. With a litany of injuries, the game’s worst starting rotation (by measure of ERA, FIP and fWAR), and a middle-of-the-pack offense, there’s little hope of a turnaround. Given their place in the standings and last summer’s trade-deadline fire sale, there’s been plenty of recent speculation over at ESPN about the possibility of a Juan Soto trade this summer. Soto rejected a 13-year extension offer in the offseason and is “only” controlled for two years beyond the current campaign.
Despite the lack of an extension and dwindling club control, a trade of Soto hasn’t stood out as particularly likely, and this morning, general manager Mike Rizzo made clear that he has no intention of moving Soto this season.
“We are not trading Juan Soto,” Rizzo plainly stated when asked in a radio appearance on the Sports Junkies show on 106.7 FM The Fan (Twitter link, with audio). “We’ve made it clear to his agent and to the player. … We have every intention of building this team around Juan Soto. We’ve spoken to his agent many, many times — recently sat with him when he was in Washington D.C., made it clear to him that we are not interested in trading him, and I guess the rest of the world just doesn’t believe it. But that’s our position.”
Skeptics will point to the fact that Rizzo (or any GM) would never broadcast an intention to trade Soto (or any star player) for fear of losing leverage in talks. That’s true, but it’s also true that Rizzo didn’t have to make a declarative statement at all. It’s common now, more than ever, for baseball executives to use generic front-office speak when fielding questions of this nature. Rizzo, however, did not give a boilerplate answer about how he loves the player but it’s his job to listen to all opportunities, unlikely as a deal may be. Making definitive, on-the-record statements that a player will not be traded is fairly rare.
Notably, Rizzo took this same tack with Bryce Harper at the 2018 deadline. Harper indeed stayed put, although The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has since reported that the Astros nearly pulled off a blockbuster acquisition of Harper before Nationals ownership stepped in to nix the swap. In fairness to Rizzo, that report suggests the Harper agreement was axed on July 30; Rizzo’s comments on Harper staying in place were issued on the morning of July 31. We’ve also seen former Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen declare that neither Noah Syndergaard nor Edwin Diaz would be traded and current Royals president of baseball ops Dayton Moore state on record that Whit Merrifield would not be moved. Not even three months ago, Cincinnati GM Nick Krall announced to reporters that even on the heels of a slew of cost-cutting moves, he had no expectation of trading either Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle prior to the season. None of the players mentioned in those statements were traded.
Circumstances can always change, and that’s particularly true of a Nationals club that is reportedly up for a potential sale. It’s also possible that a team could simply bowl Rizzo and his staff over with a Godfather offer that he simply cannot in good conscience turn down. Still, it bears emphasizing that there’s no recent MLB example of a team’s top baseball operations official publicly proclaiming that a player will not be traded, only to then go back on that hardline stance and explain the about-face to the fanbase. The closest example is former Rockies GM Jeff Bridich saying in Jan. 2020 that Nolan Arenado would not be traded, but an Arenado deal didn’t come together until 13 months later, when circumstances had changed.
Fans of other clubs will surely hold out hope for a Soto blockbuster, and there will be no shortage of both speculation and hail-Mary attempts from other teams to pry the 23-year-old superstar from the Nationals’ grasp. Rizzo’s Wednesday comments, however, only make that long shot all the more unlikely.
Soto has yet to celebrate his 24th birthday but already has 107 big league home runs under his belt. He’s a lifetime .294/.426/.539 hitter and is already earning $17.1MM as a second-time arbitration-eligible player. (He’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than three, thanks to his Super Two status.) The Nationals’ reported 13-year offer this winter would’ve promised Soto $350MM in guaranteed money, but he opted to turn that down in favor of a year-to-year approach. Many fans were understandably aghast at the notion of rejecting $350MM in guaranteed money, but from Soto’s vantage point, he’s already earning $17MM this season and could reasonably project to earn upwards of $70-75MM over his final three arbitration seasons (2022-24). The extension, then, offered to buy out 10 free-agent seasons at somewhere in the vicinity of $27-28MM annually — an annual mark well shy of the current going rate for elite players and one he could likely trounce as a 26-year-old free agent.
Even if Soto is firmly off the market, the Nationals are shaping up to be sellers for a second straight deadline season. Veterans like Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell and Steve Cishek are among the names who could be reasonably expected to change hands, as all are free agents at season’s end.
Eovaldismemes
Liar
FredMcGriff for the HOF
I’m not really sure what the Nationals are trying to accomplish outside of selling tickets by keeping Soto. They made a huge mistake not trading Harper for a haul. Strasburg is aging and Corbin is a hot mess. Bell and Cruz will most certainly be flipped at the deadline. Their farm system isn’t really that great. I see Soto leaving in free agency and the Nationals yet again missing a chance to recoup any value by getting a huge prospect haul.
natsgm
Probably trying to accomplish being a good team by having one of the best players in the game as part of the future?
prov356
Like I’ve said a bunch whenever the “trade Trout” crowd starts to make noise: You don’t make your team better by trading your best player. You build a team around him.
intotheblack
And especially not, when your best player is one of the very best players in the league.
dadofdonnydownvote
Unless the Nationals can afford a 40 million AAV contract on Soto from 2025-2035 and field a competitive team they should move on. I see Soto getting that and from a top market team like the Mets Yankees or Dodgers. Soto is gone in 2 years.
Cosmo2
Why not just keep him for now?
rememberthecoop
Sure, but again, how often do long-term deals work out well for the club?
Cosmo2
Pretty much never
JoeBrady
And how do you propose that they build a team around him? If they pay him his $40M+, then they have a payroll of $98M, and all they would have is Soto, Strasburg & Corbin. Add maybe $7M for Fedde & Robles. And Ruiz and Gray at minimum wage.
Assuming their payroll cap is maybe $200M, you need a ton of help and only $95M to spend.
IRT Trout, you are indirectly supporting that “trade Trout” crowd. The LAA haven’t made the playoffs in 7 years, and haven’t won a playoff game in 12 years.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Famous last words. “Not” is such a temporary word.
Deleted Userr
@prov356 You do when he is close to free agency, you are going to lose him anyway and you can basically trade him for a whole team.
Pads Fans
How?
Soto turned down their extension offer because it was ridiculously low and will go to FA.
The Nats have holes all over their lineup, Strasburg and Corbin are ineffective or hurt, they have 11 more FA after this season, and no prospects outside of Cavalli that might impact the team in the next two seasons before Soto is a FA.
So how exactly are they going to build around him?
Pads Fans
More than 50% of the time. If they didn’t, teams would not keep doing them.
drasco036
There really isn’t enough evidence to say “long term contracts rarely workout” and also, to what scope does “work out” mean? World Series? A certain duration of peak performance? Marketing and merchandise sales?
Also, as it relates to Juan Soto or Bryce Harper, manny machado, Mookie Betts… there is no precedence for players of their age abs caliber reaching free agency and “not working out” machado, Harper and Betts have worked out tremendously thus far… so has trout. Heyward has been a notorious bust but the cubs did win a World Series and I doubt ownership, leadership or fans would trade away that title.
Giancarlo Stanton? His contract has been fine so far… yes the injury bug bites him but he has been more than productive the majority of his contract…
drasco036
Go back the past ten years and find me a team that won the World Series that didn’t have a player making 20 million plus…
In the long run, long term big money deals may not “work out” but also, having a guy making big money on a long term deal greatly increases a clubs ability to win a World Series.
The nationals do not win a World Series without scherzer, the cubs without Lester, the dodgers without betts, Braves without freeman, the Red Sox without jd and price (complain about price, dude pitched to a sub 2 era in two starts and a relief appearance) the Astros, verlander… you have to go to 2015 and the royals…
stymeedone
The White Sox disagree with you. They sign their best players to cheap long term contracts and trade them away so their fans can have someone to root for in the WS.
dandan
The future? lol he’ll be gone in a couple of years. What future? The Nationals aren’t fielding a competitive team in that time. They better maximize their return now.
dandan
Lmao Trout is locked in for like 10 more years. Soto hits the market in 2. Not even remotely comparable.
Cosmo2
Ugh. Of course these contracts have worked out “so far”. They all look good in the beginning and all look bad at the end. Show me the contract of seven years or more that the team didn’t regret. It’s the exception not the rule. These contracts only look good in the first few years and only if it’s not your money. They eat up too much salary and the team virtually always regrets the contract in the second half. The overwhelming majority of the time.
Cosmo2
Twenty million isn’t that much per year and if it’s not on a long term contract it doesn’t apply to what I said.. Big contracts are almost always regrettable and only big market teams can afford to carry them. Trout may be awesome and I’ve of the few that IS worth it, but the Angels are too top heavy to win. They have a nice shiny object but they’ll never win. Bad contracts are bad contracts. You’d get this if it were your money.
believeitornot
The problem is they need at least ten players to become contenders by Soto’s last year. Maybe three of those players are Luis Garcia, Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry. I don’t know if Brady House will be up by 2024. Will Patrick Corbin even be on the team in 2024? It is his last year of the contract. He may just get DFA’d. His ERA is almost 7. Assuming Luis Garcia is the second baseman, who will be the first baseman, shortstop and third baseman? They will need another outfielder, starting pitcher and probably three relievers. As special as Juan Soto is, he is only one player and would bring three players or four players that would hopefully be very good. He won’t bring in that haul with one year left on his contract. It makes sense to trade him this off season.
DarkSide830
um, having a superstar player that helps you win and will do so in the future?
Cosmo2
Bad contracts are bad contracts. MOST teams have great players, almost all. Few win. So “um” all you want. Building a team through big contracts and name recognition is very amateur, it only works in video games. (How about the Rays? How do they consistently win?)You’re missing the point because it’s not your money so efficiency be damned.
Mookie's Wager
Ask the Red Sox how it’s going since trading Betts
30 Parks
Yes, Mookie’s Wager – agreed. Sox fans are far too easily pacified by the almighty “prospect haul.”
JoeBrady
Two games away from the WS last year, that’s how it is going. Regardless, in baseball, a single player does impact the team all that much.
Cooperdooper7
For the last time…. Mookie was not going to resign with the Red Sox. Perfectly fine with trading him because he got way too much money and way to many years…. halfway through that contract it will look like the Angels and Albert Pujols deal. As far as what they got in return for Betts… Verdugo is a serviceable player, Downs at most will be an average player when or if he makes to the Majors. Wong is a backup Catcher and the best part of the deal was getting rid of half of David Price’s contract.
DrDan75
Mookie was a one year rental when the Dodgers traded for him.
Pads Fans
Playoffs last season.
Pads Fans
It won’t be the last time. People will keep bringing up that deal. Red Sox got a MLB average OF that was just 23 and two good prospects for a 1 year rental of Mookie and a hurt Price. They won that deal handily.
30 Parks
For the last time, I disagree. I understand your completely obvious point. I respect your point of view – I disagree.
“Two games from the WS” – so, they won f*** all. If that’s your bar …
Poster formerly known as . . .
I think “won that deal handily” might be an overstatement. The Dodgers won a World Series (albeit with an asterisk) with Betts, and he currently leads the majors in runs and he’s second in fWAR. If they get to the World Series with him again, they might feel like they got their money’s worth in LA.
Deleted Userr
Betts was only controlled for 2020 when the Dodgers acquired him. So only what he did in 2020 counts towards that trade (granted they got plenty of value out of him in that year).
Mookie's Wager
If you’re the Sox, the Yankees, any California team other than the A’s you do not trade a generational home developed talent. I’m sick of drinking John Henry’s cheap ass watered down kool-aid.
Poster formerly known as . . .
You don’t look at the performance of the players involved in a transaction past the date they were under team control? So Babe Ruth’s long-term impact on the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry shouldn’t be a factor in appraising Boston’s sale of Ruth to the Yankees since he reportedly was under contract for only three years with Boston at the time?
Deleted Userr
Unless you have empirical evidence that Ruth would have stayed in Boston past those 3 years had they not traded him, all other things equal, then yeah.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Yeah, but the Sox could’ve held onto Betts and they’d now have the runs leader with the second-highest fWAR in the majors. That’s not a factor? There’s little doubt that Betts would still be in Boston if the Red Sox had paid what the Dodgers paid. I’m not saying they should have; I’m just saying that the performance the Dodgers are enjoying from him could be happening in Boston right now, and I don’t see how that can be dismissed as a factor when appraising the trade from Boston’s side.
Deleted Userr
Keyword: IF the Red Sox had paid what the Dodgers paid. You don’t know if they would have done that. And Verdugo+Downs+Wong-Price sure beats a QO comp pick.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Well, that was their decision, wasn’t it? Either pay the man and keep him, or trade him for what they got back.
Deleted Userr
Or keep him for 2020 and possibly lose him for a draft pick. Remember that holding onto Betts doesn’t exactly mean they would have kept him. And trading him didn’t close the door on their chances of signing him. In fact there was a lot of talk when the Red Sox traded Betts about them possibly bringing him back after 2020.
outinleftfield
Betts was a free agent after 2020, so it doesn’t matter what he has done since then. It only matters what he did that one year vs what the prospects the Red Sox received do for their 5-6 years of MLB control. So far the Red Sox have won that trade unless all 3 of those players have negative WAR the rest of their time in the majors.
outinleftfield
No. The Red Sox would have to have outbid every other team to keep Betts. So you cannot count anything he has done past 2020 in evaluating that trade.
Deleted Userr
I think the Betts trade worked out for both teams. Dodgers won the 2020 WS and Betts was their best player during the regular season and 2nd best player during the postseason that year. Sure, the 2020 championship has an asterisk next to it 2nd in size only to the 2017 Astros’ asterisk but officially it still counts.
JoeBrady
Mookie’s Wager
I’m sick of drinking John Henry’s cheap ass watered down kool-aid.
===============================
If you consider the RS a cheap team, then I suspect you know very little about baseball.
JoeBrady
Fink Ployed
There’s little doubt that Betts would still be in Boston if the Red Sox had paid what the Dodgers paid.
=========================
The Red Sox offered Betts more than LAD did.
The RS offered Betts $300M/10.
The LAD contract present day value is $306.6M/12.
The RS offer was a fair bit better. He clearly wanted to play for the LAD. I’m not sure why y’all cannot accept that Boston is not some kind of unique draw that everyone wants to spend their life there. Betts wanted to leave, and we got what we could out of his remaining value.
drasco036
This isn’t true sir..
First off the dodgers gave betts a 365 million extension but also that did not include his final year of arbitration which pushed the value to around 390 million.
The Red Sox offered 10 years 300 million but that included his final year of arbitration so the Red Sox offer came in about 100 million below the dodgers.
kingbum
Getting someone to take on Price’s contract was going to cost ya and he had clubhouse issues he had to go. Verdugo has not been Betts but he has been a serviceable average outfielder. I don’t think this trade can be graded until you know what you are getting in Downs. Having to purge the clubhouse of David Price cost us Mookie Betts. Dodgers looking like they won that trade but who knows what Jeter Downs ends up as.
Poster formerly known as . . .
You’re contradicting your own logic.
First you say it only matters what Mookie did for one year.
Then you say to appraise the trade, you have to factor in what the prospects do for 5-6 years.
You can’t have it both ways. If the future performance of the players on one side of the trade counts, then the future performance of the player on the other side of the trade counts too.
I have to guess that you guys making this self-contradictory argument are Boston fans and your agenda is to minimize the loss of Betts.
Poster formerly known as . . .
“holding onto Betts doesn’t exactly mean they would have kept him.”
That’s exactly what it means.
Like Jerry said: “See, you know how to take the reservation. You just don’t know how to hold the reservation — and that’s really the most important part of the reservation: the holding!”
youtube.com/watch?v=4T2GmGSNvaM
Poster formerly known as . . .
“The Red Sox offered 10 years 300 million but that included his final year of arbitration so the Red Sox offer came in about 100 million below the dodgers.”
Oh, are we gonna quibble now over a mere $100 million?
I kid, of course.
Thanks for pointing that out.
Deleted Userr
@Fink Ployed We are considering the post-2020 production of Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong, Jeter Downs and even David Price but not Mookie Betts because Betts literally was a one year rental when the Dodgers acquired him whereas the other players literally were not.
And no, holding onto Betts does not automatically mean they would have kept him. Good players change teams in free agency all the time.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Again, the logic doesn’t compute.
You’re trading value for value. Either you account for future performance or you don’t. It’s illogical to factor in future performance on only one side of the trade.
When teams appraise the wisdom of signing a star player to a long-term contract, they factor in the expected decline in the latter years of the contract in computing the expected or hoped-for return on investment.
When trading a player like that, they also must factor in his future performance in analyzing whether it makes sense to trade him or to pay to retain him.
You keep saying the Red Sox might not have kept Betts. The fact is, they could have, but the Dodgers offered him a lot more money.
“I talked to Mookie last night, even when I was doing NESN. And I asked him about it and he came out and said ‘look, this is my home. I don’t want to go anyplace else’. He said he didn’t care what people have said or what they’re talking about, this is my home and I want to say here. Then I talked to him last night and he said I’m going to tell you what I told you before, I wanted to stay. But it was a business deal and he couldn’t do anything about it. They choose to go that way and Mookie knows he has to accept it.” – Jim Rice
twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/122507507066771…
Okay?
Cosmo2
Yea the Red Sox have been better than most teams since the lost Betts so… folks just making stuff up.
Deleted Userr
It’s completely logical to factor in future performance for just one side of the trade. Verdugo, Downs and Wong were controlled long term. Betts. was not. It’s as simple as that.
Poster formerly known as . . .
And if the Red Sox had opted to pay Betts, he’d still be under their control.
It’s as simple as that.
Clearly, you’re never going to concede the obvious logic, so have a nice day.
Deleted Userr
You don’t know that the Red Sox would have done that! If they hadn’t traded Betts there is a very severe chance that he would have walked after 2020 anyway. And with Betts on the roster in 2020 they probably win a few more games that year and don’t get to draft Marcelo Mayer.
Try to keep up.
Deleted Userrr
We do have empirical evidence that Ruth would have stayed in Boston. MLB free agency didn’t become a thing until 1976. That was 57 years after Ruth was traded to the Yankees and 28 years after Ruth died. So he is not a representative example.
believeitornot
They gave up Mookie because they would have lost him in free agency. What he does after that one year can’t be judged because they would have lost him. However, the prospects the Red Sox got have to be judged because they are the players the Red Sox got.
CubsWin108
did you forget they literally traded like 10 players last deadline, and they got a massive haul from that. And they have other trade pieces.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Now, now Eovaldismemes, if his pants aren’t on fire, it’s unofficial if he’s a liar
TheFuzzofKing
I’ll tell you what, I could be at just about any old Nats game, and Soto is not getting my ass in a seat at those prices with this team and its record. BOGO hot dogs and beer are a better lure and besides, he’s walking about as much as he hits, which is not exactly fun to watch, given he gets to the plate what? three times in three hours?
Reason I throw you a like and not the Nats optimists below you is because I don’t think he wants to hang around for a rebuild and carry the team on his back. If he did, he could have taken the home town discount last winter.
Players who want money go to free agency and get it. Fine. Players who value other things weigh other things in their negotiations with ownership. I don’t know what Soto values. I can only infer from the behavior I see. Zimmerman spent a career here. Strasburg clearly wants to spend a career here. What’s the difference between them and Soto, hmmm?
Trade him.
Deleted Userr
Strasburg didn’t exactly take a discount to stay in Washington.
TheFuzzofKing
First of all, honored to address Harambe at last. Big fan. They done you dirty.
Second, you might be forgetting that Stras once skipped a trip to free agency to stay in D.C.
believeitornot
I think there are two reasons for not trading him this season. The first is they want too much for him. They need him to have less time remaining so they can lower their demands. The second reason could be prospects do very well in AA and then suck in AAA. They just want to be reassured that a prospect can handle a higher level. Of course, success at AAA does not translate into success at MLB. Look at Carter Kieboom. However, it helps.
You Can Put It In The Books
Mets and Yankees will engage in an epic free agency bidding war for this dude in a couple years.
Ronk325
You can probably add every big market team into the mix. Everyone is going to want Soto if/when he hits free agency
Cosmo2
Not if he thinks he’s getting 400 million. Majority of the league bows out right there.
You Can Put It In The Books
Exactly Cosmo.
Ronk325
Yeah Cosmo, that’s why I said every big market team
Cosmo2
Sorry I missed that
Pads Fans
He will get more than that in FA if he returns to form this season. He will only be 26 and is the best hitter in baseball. Think 14/500. That is only $35.7 million AAV. Between Correa and Cole in terms of AAV.
Maverick12
Best hitter lmfao…watch more baseball then please
Pads Fans
Its apparent you don’t.
From 2019-2021 it’s not close. Pick your poison. wOBA, wRC+, WAR, OPS, OPS+. Soto has been the best hitter in baseball.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…
outinleftfield
Do you watch MLB at all? There is no question about whether or not Soto is the best hitter in the game the last 3 seasons. He is.
stymeedone
The Yankees won’t be far enough under the CBT to afford Soto.
Captain Judge99
Nats might as well. He’s not signing an extension there, and they can get a Kings ransom for Soto now. Probably 3 or 4 top prospects in any organization. Big mistake not dealing him now.
Robertowannabe
If they would be getting such offers, he would be gone. Good luck getting a team to offer a package to match the talent of Soto.
Captain Judge99
@gozurman1- whose to say their not getting those offers? The problem is you gotta trade your top prospects, and then try to sign Soto long-term. Boras obviously wants him to wait to sign for a bigger pay day later.
Deleted Userr
@Captain Judge99 Trading Soto doesn’t exactly equal extending him. If it did the Nationals definitely wouldn’t trade him.
Robertowannabe
The reason why I do not think anyone is offering a kings ransom is your second sentence. None is willing to give up several top prospects knowing that they would have to deal with Boras who is known to advise what you say in your last sentence. No team wants to trade a Kings ransom when the odds say that Soto will most likely not sign an extension and will test the free agent waters. People still talk about what a bad trade the Pirates made for Gerrit Cole. Same situation. Cole did not want to sign an extension. Would not with the Astros after the trade. He was intent on going the Free Agent and everyone knew it. The Pirates took what they could get and did not get a kings ransom. They got lucky in getting Joe Musgrove and flipped him into a better package than they got for Cole. I just don’t think anyone will give up a lot to get him for a max 2 1/2 years and then run a big risk of losing him to FA.
Captain Judge99
@gozurman1- As a Yankees fan I’m okay with giving up a Kings ransom. Dominguez, Peraza, Schmidt, Waldichuk, Sweeney, Wells and others. That guy is a game changer! If he is in the conversation of being in the top 3 players in the game, then he is worth the price and prospects. That package listed above seems like a great offer for Mr. Soto. Does @Yankee Clipper- agree with me? Lmk
Javia135
Any trade offer that doesn’t include the Yankees best prospect, Anthony Volpe, is DOA.
Deleted Userr
And then some!
Robertowannabe
Not questioning the worth but most teams will not part with that much with no guarantee that they could extend him. I see him betting on himself like Cole did. That bet and the desire to test the waters is why the Bucs got what they did for him from the Astros. I just don’t think the Nats would accept that kind of package for Soto. Yeah it id hypothetically possible but I just down see any team actually give up that much for a 2 1/2 year rental.
Captain Judge99
@Javia135- I totally disagree. Let me here your Friar offer for Soto? Can’t wait to hear it. Peraza is more major league ready then Volpe is. If Volpe is traded in a Soto package then I’m keeping Peraza out of the trade. Peraza is a better defender and is more likely to stick at shortstop, then Volpe is. Volpe is probably moving over to 2nd base when he’s ready in a few years. Hassell, Abrams, Gore and Campusano might get it done for the Pods. I like the Yankee offer better.
Deleted Userr
@Captain Judge99 If you offer Volpe and Peraza for Soto the Nats would say “Great start. Who else?”
Javia135
4 top 40 prospects from the Padres, one of them the current ROY favorite, vs 4 prospects in the 50-100 range and assorted garbage? The Yankees have a total of 1 prospect who measures up to ANY OF THE PADRES 4 prospects, and you don’t want to include him? Try again.
Javia135
Read the last question from todays chat to see what Soto would cost. The answer was Gore, Abrams, Hassell and Campusano. They are all top 40 prospects. None of the Yankees prospects you mentioned are even top 50.
Deleted Userr
It’s BTV so take it however you want but I threw the Yankees’ 5 prospects with the most trade value on there into the simulator and it’s still ~$90m shy of Juan Soto’s surplus value.
Only current Yankees MLB player who I would consider an “impact” player who has more club control remaining than Soto is Nestor Cortes Jr. and he only has one more year of control than Soto.
Stone Cold Steve Austin
A fan but I thought you were Aaron judge. Yea acting like a jackass all that time will follow you around
Pads Fans
Any offer that doesn’t include a couple MLB ready players and that teams top prospects is DOA.
Captain Judge99
@Javia135- please stop your killing me with all your top prospect “single hitters” Dominguez and Volpe are hitting 25-30 homeruns yearly when then come up to the majors. If I’m the Nats I’m definitely taking the Yankee package instead, but as always thanks for the laugh.
Javia135
Right. Because the value placed on them by experts with decades in the field means nothing compared to your personal opinion. Sure.
Deleted Userrr
@Pads Fans All the Yankees’ MLB ready players have less control than Soto except Cortes.
Captain Judge99
@Javia35- I could care less about what these experts or what you have to say. We’ll see who will have the better career, of these players when they’re brought up. I’ll be the guy that said I told you so. We won’t know until then.
Yankee Clipper
Captain99: This is exceedingly difficult because there’s actually two separate conversations occurring concomitantly here.
The first is: What would it take to get Soto? Fairly straightforward question, but a near impossible answer because his situation is so unique (age, talent, ceiling, agent, etc). Historically, no team would trade him, ever, if at all possible. But times have morphed FOs into more business-like transactions rather than emotional. So, I would have to see what the Nats’ farm is and research what they need. But, I’ll be the blind squirrel trying to find a nut here & shoot from the hip, but I think what you have is good foundational framework *IF* they were to trade him. I see ~ five top-farm players (and perhaps inexpensive, controllable MLB talent) headed back for Soto, which would be incredibly rare. Make no mistake though, they will want the top-3 farm guys included in the deal, imo.
I base trade values off what markets for other stars yielded & what teams asked for, ie, one year of Olson = two top-100 guys, if that tracks…so, I could be a bit heavy too, but it’s Soto.
Second question: Would Cashman do it? No, I don’t believe he would. Why? Because Cashman notoriously hugs prospects. He also notoriously has to *win* each individual deal. I don’t think he would feel a rental is a win.
What this would grant Yankees *IF* they were to do this is a sit down with Boras for an extension. But if they give up that much in prospect capital they know darn well that Boras has them by the short hairs (and Boras m ones that too), so they must be prepared to pay his asking price, or close. I don’t see this Yankees team (Hal) operating on Boras’ leverage like that.
My opinion: This is an exercise in futility because, like Olson, Soto will be too rich in prospects for Cashman’s blood (and Hal’s too, by giving Boras financial leverage for extension). But, I do think there is a real shot that the Yankees go full “Gerrit Cole” in FA. I could be very wrong, and my opinion may change over the next year.
Javia135
I am not making the trade. Neither are you Captain Judge99. The Nationals will be making the trade if it happens. Now, do you think the Nationals care more about what the experts say or what some guy on the internet says?
Maybe you should just offer Frazier and Andujar. They can’t say no to that, right?
Javia135
@Captain Judge99
Minor league OPS:
CJ Abrams- .901
Robert Hassell.- .852
Luis Campusano- .850
Jasson Dominguez-.763
Oswald Peraza- .739
Who shows more power again?
Captain Judge99
@Javia135- all that said if the Nationals are acquiring based on need. The Yankees package of Dominguez, Volpe, Schmidt, Wells, and Sweeney is a better deal then what the Padres will offer. That was my point. Let’s see if Soto is moved and where he’s going to go to. Both teams have the prospects to get something done. It would be better for the Nationals to move him now.
Yankee Clipper
Javia: I think you’re correct in your OPS assessment, but power is better reflected in ISO honestly. That said, Dominguez is only 19, younger than any of the others, and had an ISO of only a few points lower than Abrams, and he’s two years younger; so a power comparison with 21-year-olds isn’t the best comp because Dominguez is probably ahead for his age. .
Nonetheless, Peraza had a higher ISO than any of those you mentioned during any one season in the minors.
I write this *not* to disagree with the point your making, but to add context to it. I don’t think it’s as simple as measuring OPS. I also don’t think it’s as simple as measuring ISO either. Age will also be a factor when prospective buyers look at these guys (Dominguez, specifically) and he’s starting to hit this year (at 19).
Anyway, none of that amounts to a hill of beans because any of these guys can flop over the next year, or take off like rock stars, none of us know.
Deleted Userr
@Captain Judge99 So if I understand correctly, you are saying you DO care about what those experts or Javia have to say?
Captain Judge99
@Javia- so confused? I’m a guy on the Internet, but how do you know I’m not a expert? Exactly, you don’t. Good luck trying to get Juan Soto with your Friar package of all “single hitters” I would take Volpe and Dominguez over Abrams and Hassell for sure. If Luis Campusano is so good why don’t the Pads ever play him? The Nationals will definitely make the right decision, if they move, Mr. Soto.
Wisdom shared
I have been looking everywhere and there are NO stats to back up your opinion which is based on speculation. Please show me where Dominguez and Volpe have hit 25 – 30 homers in reality – not fantasyland. NO one knows what a player will do in the majors until they reach that level and prove that they were worth the hype. Basing hype on the minors is a fool’s errand and more top prospects that destroyed the minors fizzled and burned in the majors and were never heard from again. Fans have false optimism, but in the case of Soto, NO team in the majors will trade their top five prospects for a player that will then cost them 400 – 500 million over ten years. For the Yankees, for them to consider Soto, they have to let Judge walk because they have enough huge contracts that other teams don’t want. They are team killers and no team survives with only one player on their roster, unless you surround them with cast 0ffs, bench players, or rookies. That is where baseball is headed and years from now, there will be a six-team Premier league, then middle spending and finally a third league of small market teams. Players and teams are destroying baseball and many don’t even realize it.
kingbum
As a Boston fan….There are 2 untouchables on the roster for Soto…..Whitlock and Devers…..the rest of the team? I’d give the Nats JD, Xander, Downs, and Duran…..that’s 2 proven stars, a MLB ready prospect, and a top prospect….for Juan Soto
As John Henry….$400 million is a lot for one player we didn’t go there with Betts
I’d love Soto, my trade gives the Nats future payroll flexibility if they chose to let Xander and JD walk. Is 2 and a half years of control on Soto worth it? It is if it makes you a contender…
Deleted Userr
You don’t get to label anyone as untouchable if you are trading for Soto!
And why would the Nats want JD or Xander (both rentals) if they are trading Soto?
believeitornot
Volpe stinking right now.
believeitornot
Austin Wells and Waldichuk should be in the top 50 by the end of this season.
Cosmo2
Why deal him now? His value isn’t going down. Why give up on winning any time soon?
Yankee Clipper
Cosmo: “ Why deal him now?”
Answer: Because I want him… lol.
RamMac14
Well there not winning so that ship has sailed on them “winning anytime soon” they need to build the farm
Deleted Userr
@Cosmo2 au contraire his trade value is indeed going down. His stock has no room for growth and his club control is evaporating slowly but surely.
Pads Fans
Why not deal him this year? Will his value go UP if they wait? Nope.
The Nationals have holes all throughout their lineup, their pitching is the worst in the NL, they have 11 FA at the end of this season, and nothing of note coming up through the system anytime soon. Maybe Cavalli will rebound from a terrible season in AAA and help them in 2023. That is it before 2024 or 2025.
The bottom line is the Nationals will not compete in the East before Soto is a FA. This is not like the situation with Harper where they were winning and refused to trade him. The Nationals are among the worst teams in the game and not likely to get better anytime soon.
Cosmo2
Why make the team worse now when you can just trade him later?
Deleted Userr
@Cosmo2 Because you’ll get more by trading him now that you would if you wait until he’s closer to free agency
outinleftfield
Cosmo, because he will be worth less with each day that passes. Right now its 2.66 seasons of Soto. That is worth more than trading him after the season. Which is worth much more than trading him when he is a rental.
Cosmo2
I don’t think he’ll be worth less. He’s too good. He’ll get the max haul now or two years from now. It’s like if you have a diamond worth 3 million but the richest buyer only has one million. The diamond can depreciate in value to 2 million, you’re still getting one million for it. His trade value won’t go down because no one has the prospect capital equal to his present value.
Deleted Userr
Yes he will be worth less. Of COURSE teams will pay more if they can use a guy in 3 playoffs pushes instead of 2. And more for 2 instead of 1.
And there are teams that have the prospect capital equal to his present value.
Cosmo2
You are missing my point. You CAN’T pay more than you have. He will command MAX value even with less control. Can’t pay him more than the “max” even if he has more control. In other words, down the road, he will STILL be worth a teams top prospects so what difference does it make? Even with only one year of control he will still be worth more than any assets a team has to trade from amongst its prospects. See my diamond analogy.
Deleted Userr
I’m not missing it. It’s just wrong. It’s ludicrous to say that getting to use Soto in 2022 doesn’t have value.
There are teams with strong enough farm systems that they can afford to trade for Soto right now. Doing so would ruin their futures and they would basically become what the Washington Nationals are right now but they CAN do it.
Cosmo2
Ok. Name the team and the prospects that would right now be more than he could command later. Stop with the generalities and give some specifics. It’s just not there. You’re all theory but no reality.
Deleted Userr
Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Cal Raleigh
believeitornot
Maybe Cole Henry.
Justanotherstrosfan
It wasn’t that long ago(last week sometime) myself and another reader were having the discussion of what it would take to get Soto to the Astros. He entered Alvarez, Pena, McCormick, Siri, Tucker, and our top 2 prospects into the algorithm and it said that it was still not enough to get him. Remember, that’s a ROY winner, 2 top prospects (1 pitcher, 1 position), the top rookie in baseball right now in Pena, and a massive bat from the left side and it still wasn’t enough according to the site he went to. I don’t know about any of y’all but that’s an awful lot to give up for just 1 player no matter how good he is. He’s not going to cover the entire outfield you traded away to get him.
Yankee Clipper
AstrosFan: Yeah, if that’s Baseball Trade Values that site has pros and cons. It’s valuable because certain values, per player, can work. Others, their algorithm reflects negative values when there should not be, or over-accentuates positive values. It’s a very dicey site to use for actual trades and would better suffice to serve as a baseline evaluation, imo.
I don’t think it’s off in Soto’s case because he’s simply invaluable – a unicorn in MLB given his status. But, I also don’t think that means they wouldn’t accept a deal if you throw in All-Star caliber, coat-controlled players with top farm guys & solid MLB bats to boot.
All that nonsense to say, this is precisely why it’s so difficult to predict what any trade for Soto would begin to look like, which is probably what Rizzo was thinking when he said, “We aren’t trading Soto.”
Justanotherstrosfan
Clipper: I completely concur. It would take such a massive package of not only prospects but true major league talent to get him, the Nationals would be forced to take it. With what he’s making this year at 17 mil plus and 2-3 more arbitration years left, it will hamstring any payroll. The Yankees have been trying to stay under the cap more often than in previous years, Dodgers are doing the same. The new CBT basically put a soft cap on salaries that most teams are going to try And abide by IMO. I think salaries will start to be higher AAV( a la Correa w/Twins) with much shorter terms. The owner of the Astros has gone on record saying he doesn’t like them because they rarely work out and normally give 5 yrs the renegotiate. I think that’s a sound business move.
Deleted Userr
A guy who is still in arb is never going to hamstring any payroll.
And as for your Soto-to-Astros package, Alvarez only has one more year of control than Soto. So unless Mike Rizzo gets it into his head that 2025 is THE year for them I don’t see them being interested in Alvarez if they are trading Soto.
Captain Judge99
What National GM Mike Rizzo should of said” We are definitely trading Juan Soto at the right price”
Cosmo2
Good. Although if they can’t extend him they basically have to trade him in his walk year.
Dock_Elvis
I thought he had two more seasons of control?
Cosmo2
Yea I’m not sure when his last year of control is. But he’s still under control now so they should keep him.
vtadave
He’s controllable through the 2024 season.
Steve Adams
First paragraph.
Robertowannabe
LOL! Yes, actually reading the article does help 🙂
Cosmo2
Meh. I just come mostly for the discussion. Only occasionally read the actual article.
chopper2hopper
I simultaneously admire your honesty and weep for humanity
Cosmo2
I see the articles as mostly conversation starters. Rarely is there vital info. Like, you’re weeping because some comment without reading? Ok.
Stone Cold Steve Austin
Reading is hard
Cosmo2
I mean, it isn’t. But who cares? Is there some sort of moral transgression in joining the convo without reading the article?
Pads Fans
Nope. It does make you look stupid, but its not a moral transgression.
Cosmo2
Really? That’s how you judge intelligence? Who makes up these rules? You? The exact number of years of control weren’t relevant to the discussion I was having. You’re doing some odd intellectual policing here.
Captain Judge99
@Cosmo2- why not just trade him now when the haul of prospects will be a lot more? Doesn’t that make more sense?
Cosmo2
I don’t see his value going down. He’s too good, his value maxes out at some point. Even with less control, he pulls in the max haul.
believeitornot
His value goes down the longer they wait. Why would a team give up their best 3 prospects for two months?
Balk
I don’t know if this is smart, you could get a good haul for him at the deadline and not miss out like they did on Harper.
rct
I would definitely consider it. If he indeed turned down 13/$350 million, then it would not be a bad idea to explore options. Increasing the offer is still a good idea, though.
believeitornot
Ten years for 350 is a very good offer. The same amount for thirteen is a very weak offer.
believeitornot
Didn’t they get a draft pick for losing Harper because they offered him a QO? If so, who is the player?
Deleted Userr
The player you are looking for is Tyler Dyson.
positively_broad_st
If the Nats aren’t trading Soto, then they should go ahead and pony up that $450M+
Cosmo2
Or the more like 350-375 he’ll actually command. Remember when Harper was getting 400 million?
Pads Fans
Its more like 14/500 he will command.
Cosmo2
14/500? I’m guessing you’re one of those folks who guaranteed that Harper would get 400 million. Any team that commits 14/500 is positively moronic. That would hamstring ANY team’s payroll.
outinleftfield
He is going to make at least $56 million in his final two seasons of arbitration, $24-26 million in 2023 and $30-32 million in 2024 according to the calculations that MLBTR uses on this site, $28 million AAV. He will make a minimum of 20% more than the $30-32 he is expected to earn in his final arbitration eligible season in free agency as an AAV. Why don’t you do the math. The Nationals already offered 13 years and he wanted more years. He also wanted more money, but we can discuss that later. Since free agency is after 2024, lets say 12 more years after that at a minimum. So now you tell us the number that is 20% higher than $30-32 million times 12 years. Add the $17 million this year plus the $56 million in 2023-2024. Now what is your total? Clue: its over $500 million.
Cosmo2
We’ll see. Remember, virtually everyone was guaranteeing that Harper would get 400 million. He got considerably less and yet they still call Boras a genius (but I digress). The world doesn’t make decisions upon dry math alone. I say no way is anyone that dumb as to pay that amount. That’s 25% of even a big budget teams payroll. You can’t win like that.
Deleted Userr
Who was guaranteeing Harper would get $400m?
believeitornot
As good as Bryce Harper is, Juan Soto is better.
MannyPineappleExpress9
Why do that when they still have 2 years (fact check) of control?
That’s like the Brewers giving Yelich $188 million with 2 years, a bad back and a not fully recovered broken kneecap. Ok, maybe not quite that dumb…
Old York
Two seconds later… Soto has been traded to X-team for A1, A2 & A3 prospects.
VonPurpleHayes
The Nats have a shot at 4th place now thanks to the Phillies.
Yankee Clipper
Yeah, I watched last night’s game after reading your post, Von. That was….tough to watch.
VonPurpleHayes
All the losses have been like that. It’s par for the course.
DarkSide830
Welcome to Phillies baseball.
Dorothy_Mantooth
One way or another,Soto is going to end up on the Dodgers or the Yankees. He’s one of a handful or players you gladly exceed the CBT for. Imagine him on a roster where he has protection in the lineup? He will be a wrecking machine!
You Can Put It In The Books
You forgot about the team with the richest owner in baseball by a landslide…
MannyPineappleExpress9
Pittsburgh? You’re talking about Pittsburgh right?.
rct
If you’re talking about the Mets, they already have a lot of money invested in players and may need to pay a lot more to keep guys like deGrom (who will almost assuredly opt out of the last year of his deal this offseason) and Alonso around. Nimmo’s not going to be cheap, either. Not to mention the large outlay of prospects it would take to land Soto.
When it was a game.
Money is no object to him. He is what the dodgers were a few years back. Complete disregard for tax.
Pads Fans
Or the Mets.
outinleftfield
They would be my bet with al the money they will have coming off the books before the 2024-2025 offseason.
Yankee Clipper
Juan Soto: “I am not staying here!”
Old York
He’ll be a New York Yankee. 2025 can’t come soon enough.
Yankee Clipper
I like where your head’s at!
Ancient Pistol
He’s perfect for Yankee Stadium.
You Can Put It In The Books
He’s perfect for every stadium.
Ancient Pistol
No! Only Yankee Stadium! All other teams please STAY AWAY! His ultimate destiny awaits him in the Bronx.
BigFootsFart
He will never be a Yankee. I guarantee it. Trash organization. Trash fans. Trash thrown by trash fans. Players see that. He will go to a classy place.
Yankee Clipper
You still can’t spell your name correctly, Steven. And apparently, your vocabulary is limited to “trash” as the operative adjective. It’s cool though, man, I still hope you have a good day, Steve.
BigFootsFart
You don’t get the quip within the name. It’s okay. Low IQ like the rest of the Yankees fans. I’ll change the adjective: pathetic, deplorable, miserable. You can pick the word, neophyte. Also, the hairs on my gooch have a more articulate vocabulary than youll ever have.
Have a great day as well, Y-Clips.
You Can Put It In The Books
Don’t they build their houses out of trash in Arkansas?
tstats
YOU STILL EXIST?
rct
Stefan is not an antonym of Steve nor is Arkansas an antonym of Nebraska. Fail.
You Can Put It In The Books
I don’t think Steve knows what an antonym is lol…
BigFootsFart
That’s exactly what an antonym is. Read a book, you’re obviously missing a chromosome.
BigFootsFart
Yankees fans are garbage. Who cares?
rct
An antonym means opposite, buddy. Arkansas and Nebraska are states. Stefan and Steve are names. Don’t blow out your last remaining brain cell trying to explain to me how they’re opposites. Just take the L.
You Can Put It In The Books
Sadly, Stefan’s last brain cell departed long ago. It’s up to us to retrain him. Sending Hooked On Phonics vibes his way…
BigFootsFart
They are opposites you fuking idiot. All Yankees fans are the same. Low iq, micropeens trying to one up each other. Take this L neanderthal
BigFootsFart
Stop liking your own comments keyboard commando
You Can Put It In The Books
How is “Stefan” the opposite of “Steve”?! Ya know what, I give up, I’m peeing my pants!
Yankee Clipper
YCPiiTB: Thank you SO much for this. I read your responses and couldn’t stop laughing, man. Hahahaha. I swear I dribbled a little….hahahahaha.
Antonym: I don’t think that word means what he thinks it means – .this made my night!
Oh, Antonym Steve, it was me “liking” his comments, btw.
Captain Judge99
@StefanArkansas- rest assured we definitely feel the same way about you Stephon! Your definitely a dope!
Old York
@StefanArkansas
I guess that also rules the SF Giants out too, as they were throwing at Profar.
BigFootsFart
Yes. Trash.
Bright Side
If he hits FA he’ll likely wind up with the Giants.
Balk
I agree. To some extent. Giants have always had problems dragging stars to California, last one was Bonds I believe. Have to get creative on contract.
When it was a game.
Didn’t work out but Zito Was a big signing at the time.
Balk
Yes that’s another, I think Giants fans are content with him and his lack of production due to the last year or so and the ring he helped them get. Ha
believeitornot
Are you talking about Judge?
Stevil
There’s little doubt they’ll offer him record-breaking deferred money, then fault him if he prefers to be paid within his lifetime.
ArianaGrandSlam
No you very much should with Strass and dump Corbin, a clean slate.
topchuckie
I don’t think turning down the $350M was as much about getting more money as it was about not committing to 13 years on the Nats.
natsgm
Its funny after almost a decade of success some people act like the Nats are the Orioles or Pirates because of a few down seasons
You Can Put It In The Books
Naw, we’ve all thought this for a while. Their whole plan is and will be a house of cards built on excessive deferred money compared to their peers. They were bound to topple and quickly. Strasburg and Corbin deals will sink them for years to come and Soto will depart as a result of not winning.
Dorothy_Mantooth
@topchuckie -It was all about getting more money. Had the Nats offered him $500M, he would have signed that deal immediately.
chiefnocahoma1
That’s what you say when you want to trade him.
Ronk325
The key words here were “this season.” Superstars with multiple years of control rarely get traded mid season anyway so that shouldn’t be a surprise. With that said I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Soto traded this winter
Rsk3228
Either sign him long term or trade him. They are leaving a haul on the table if they wait an extra year.
Cosmo2
Nah. Soto is so good you’ll never get equal value for him. The prospect haul won’t be less if there’s one less year of control. His trade value is beyond maxed out, no one truly has enough prospects to make the trade equal now, nor two years from now.
JoeBrady
no one truly has enough prospects to make the trade equal now, nor two years from now.
====================================
IMO, you are way over-estimating his value. Two years of any player is worth maybe 7 WAR. There are teams out there that could offer up three top-tier prospects, whose combined value would double that over 6+ years.
Soto has only 1.1 fWAR this year. Further, he essentially worthless to the Nats. They were #26 last year, and possibly #30 this year. He led the league in walks last year, and is 1st again this year.
It’s kind of like a guy driving to bankruptcy court in a Porsche.
Robertowannabe
There most likely is not a haul on the table at the moment. There are offers to be sure but none most likely are close to what you are suggesting or else you would see Soto gone.
Cosmo2
He’d get the biggest haul possible right now or, if all goes well, later too. It’s just that no team has a “haul” that’s worth what Soto brings.
Robertowannabe
Oh there are teams that has a “haul” that is worth what Soto brings but they won’t do it because it would gut their team and then they will have Soto but still lose games because they don’t have enough around him.
Cosmo2
Yea that’s a good point about not wanting to gut a franchise but years ago when the Mets were considering trading deGrom I looked around. NO teams had anything close to worthwhile value. You could’ve taken the top 5 prospects (from winning teams) and it would never have been worth it.
Javia135
6 years of Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez is not enough for 2 years of Soto? Julio Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte and George Kirby? CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell and MacKenzie Gore? Please. Washington would take any of those offers in a second, along with several others.
Cosmo2
Nope. None of them are likely to be anywhere near as good as Soto and a few are bound to be outright busts. So, no.
Javia135
Juan Soto has put up 19.3 WAR in 5 seasons and 2227 PA. That is a little over 5-WAR per year. We’ll call it 6, just to give you a little extra. 2 years at 6-WAR=12-WAR. So you are saying that you believe that Rutschman and Rodriguez will be worth less than 1-WAR per year each? Or that Rodriguez, Marte and Kirby as well as Abrams, Hassell and Gore will be worth LESS THAN 2/3-WAR each per year? You would be in the extreme minority in that belief. MacKenzie Gore alone already has 1.4 WAR in 8 starts, or 1/4 of a season. That works out to…5.6-WAR per year. ALONE.
JoeBrady
Julio Rodriguez already has a higher fWAR this year. I said basically the same thing you just said in an other post. But I’d expand that to almost every player. A true ace SP is a little different, since they give you a huge playoff edge, but no single position player is not worth near what some think they are.
In addition to the WAR mentioned in your SD package, there is trivial issue of the payroll. I can buy a lot of talent for the same $40M that Soto wants.
Cosmo2
WAR doesn’t work that way. 5 one WAR players aren’t as valuable as one 5 WAR player, not even close. But you are overestimating the expectations of prospects in terms of the stat anyway.
Dock_Elvis
A Godfather offer that he simply cannot turn down. Threw the cliche a change up there.
Bruin1012
The reason that they aren’t going to trade Soto this year there is no precedent for trading a guy this young, this good, with 2.5 plus years of control left. The cost of squiring this guy would be astronomical. If a team really wanted him and the Nats only wanted prospects it would take a team with good prospects probably 4 of their top 5 plus a couple of lottery tickets. No GM is going to did that most likely their is to much prospect love nowadays. This is the reason that Rizzo isn’t trading Soto no one is going to trade the capital it would realistically take to get Soto.
Cosmo2
Any team could offer their top 3 prospects and Washington would still be getting the short end.
Bruin1012
That’s why I said 4 out of their top 5 plus more the value of Soto is comical right now and there is almost no chance that Rizzo would receive true value for him thus he isn’t being traded until at least next years trade deadline. That’s the earliest I could see Soto being traded and that after numerous attempts at locking him up long term.
Cosmo2
Right, I basically agree. What I’m saying is that even the top five prospects from any team would be worth less than Soto.
When it was a game.
Anyone who gets him has to drain their system and big league club. Then hope to resign him. Not sure he is tradable.
Deleted Userr
Trading for him doesn’t have signing him in mind
Dock_Elvis
It would take the prospect haul, plus an extension window. Also have to assess whether the single player is actually going to be worth that. Great player…but it’s also the type of situation where an acquiring GMs career goes to die. Much could be the economics. We’re seeing very few teams that’ll play in free agency for him. If you’re the Yankees. Why lose the prospects? Just wait and pay. Keep the prospects.
bravesfan
Might not trade him, but I’m gonna bank he’ll end up losing him in free agency in a couple years
Robertowannabe
Rizzo is telling the truth when he says that he is not trading Juan Soto. That is a true statement for the moment of time that he made the statement. However, things change with time and Rizzo has until 2024 and the trade deadline to make something happen in the way of a long term extension. He may get an offer that even the ownership won’t refuse and he will be gone.
believeitornot
What happens if Judge leaves this off season? They will want Soto to replace him.
padam
If they’re going to hold onto Soto, they could’ve at least held onto Turner as well and try to sign him. Still had over a year to get it done.
Mickey777
The Nats are a bad team this year, that’s hardly news. Virtually no one is or should pitch to him. As a result, it seems more than likely that his offensive stats are and will continue to diminish. Unless Soto and his agent see the Nats improving substantially in the next 2 years why would Soto sign with the Nats? He can get big money from many teams, most of which have better teams than the Nats. Eventually, the Nats have to face reality. I SUSPECT he wants to play in NY. It will be interesting to see if the Mets outbid the Yanks for his services. Course he might also want to play in LA or Chicago, like I said previously he has many options all of which are probably superior to staying with the Nats.
BaseballClassic1985
Rizzo is a fool for holding onto Soto. Nats are going nowhere fast. Reset the franchise by trading him with 2.5 years left before he hits free agency. Let some other team give him a ridiculous contract that will do nothing but burden them for 10 years.
There isn’t ANY player in baseball worth $350+ million. It’s a TEAM sport. No 1 player makes that much of a difference. See Harper, Cole, Machado, Seager, etc.
Yankee Clipper
I think it has more to do with the draw that Soto has rather than the impact he has in their chances of winning anything. Soto is a moneymaker for the Nats, man. Jerseys, tickets, other merch.
Granted, that’s not a ton, but if they traded him for prospects, who are people going to want to watch play, ya know? Who’s the star they would line up to see, that the kids would idolize? He’s a perennial All-Star, a generational talent, a premium hitter. Exciting dude to watch for fans, man. I think that’s why they’re keeping him, not to win.
JoeBrady
I think it has more to do with the draw that Soto has
=============================
I doubt he has much of a draw. Winning draws. There won’t be a lot of fans out there looking to see Soto if the team is in 30th place. They are on pace for < 1.7M attendance.
Yankee Clipper
I definitely hear what you guys are saying, and it makes sense. I submit, however, that it’s not only winning that draws: See Colorado Rockies.
I’m not surmising that it’s only the one player that will bring all the fans either, but I think that’s an important aspect. Without him, there’s no face of the franchise.
I could be wrong, probably am, usually am at least 400 times per day.
Deleted Userr
Keeping a player because he’s “a draw” or “gives the fans someone to watch” is the stupidest thing a GM can possibly do. And it isn’t close.
Rocket32
Soto is a generational talent and he’ll only be 26 when he hits FA. It’s very possible he could have 9-10 years of elite production left in him at that point. If he ages gracefully like some players of his caliber do, he could still be a solid player at the end of a 12 year contract. If anyone is worth a mega deal in FA, it’s him. He’s also more than young enough for the Nationals to rebuild around.
believeitornot
It is very hard for them to be contenders in two years. They have so many holes, I don’t see how they contend in 2024. Trading Soto should net three very good players. Maybe even four. That is is with two years left. Less than two years left and his value goes down.
Dock_Elvis
There’s many non baseball reasons for keeping a player around. Sure, team sport. But merchandise and eyeballs aren’t team driven, necessarily. If you take football..team sport. But lineman don’t sell jerseys.
Deleted Userr
Again. “Merchandise and eyeballs” are stupid reasons to keep a player. At least on their own.
JoeBrady
I agree. Fans primarily come out to see their team win. I’d like to see the RS extend Bogaerts, but only on terms that make sense. Having a team icon around is useful, But you can track most team’s attendance based on the record. Just for fun, see Detroit to see how many fans show up to see Miggy. Over 3M when they contended, and down to 1.1M last year.
Deleted Userr
If they extend Bogey they have to trade Story, eating however much of his contract it takes.
JoeBrady
1-I think Bogaerts switches over to 3rd and Devers to DH. and that only happens when either Downs or Yorke force their way into the lineup.
2-You wouldn’t eat salary with Story. At this point, he has an excellent contract.
Deleted Userr
-$1.6m on BTV, which isn’t surprising considering the Red Sox just outbid everyone else to sign him
cwsOverhaul
3 years of an ace in Sale set the highest bar for trade capital, which was at the time 2 elite prospects (Moncada, Kopech) and couple fillers. Clubs are unlikely to beat that offer for a hitter no matter how good AND have to put 400+ on the table to tempt Soto away from an open bid FA.
Poundsy24
Interesting because the Red Sox are in a similar situation with Devers but no one is saying anything about the Red Sox trading Devers.
Devers for Soto! It would probably cost the Sox more to acquire Soto though since I believe he’s closer to FA but I don’t think the Nats would be able to find a better player in return and Bloom has shown a willingness to move on from a star to gain an extra year of control (Betts and Benintendi).
As a Sox fan, I wouldn’t hate it. Dalbec can slide to 3B and upgrade the defense and that would open up a spot for Casas at 1B. You can pay Bogey and Soto long term. Just a thought.
Mickey777
Never happening! Interesting thought, but what makes you think that Devers would sign with the Nats? Without the likelihood of signing Devers long term, trading Soto would be an absolute No No.
dadofdonnydownvote
I would think Devers will be gone in free agency. The Red Sox are paying Sale 30 million this year but they tend to not overpay much. I’d bet on Devers ending up on one the New York teams in free agency.
tstats
I could see the dodgers signing devers with the end of the JT era soon.
CravenMoorehead
It goes without saying that Soto is a generational player. I have a feeling that the contract that he eventually signs (with Washington or elsewhere) is going to be larger than Mike Trout’s.
BaseballClassic1985
What exactly does “generational player” mean? Soto is a good player, but what has he done to warrant the $400 million contract being thrown around on this board?
He’s never had more than 32 doubles in a season, or 157 hits and has only driven in 100 runs once. Ok, he walks a lot, but is that worth $40 million per year?
He is also just average on defense. And again, even if his offensive #s were off the chart, no single player can quantify any team paying him that much money.
Cosmo2
He is generational talent. No one is worth 400 million.
johnrealtime
That is one of the more amusing examples of cherry picking I have ever seen. 2019-2022 he is probably top 3 best players in the league. Now go look at his age during that time
Whether any player is “worth” that much money is debatable, but kind of irrelevant in this discussion. The defense is the best point. I see him being a negative defensive player in his career and a DH before he’s 2/3 of the way through his big contract
JoeBrady
What exactly does “generational player” mean?
==================================
My question as well. Aren’t Trout, Betts, Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Freeman, Harper, Machado, also generational players?
kodiak920
We was a key player in a WS champion. Josh Hader and Clayton Kershaw still have nightmares of him.
outinleftfield
A others have already noted, Soto is the best hitter in baseball the past 3 years. He led baseball in WAR over that period too. He did that at age 20-22. There is lots of room and time to improve on being the best in the game. That is what makes him a generational player. And no, generational doesn’t have to mean just one player. He will get Trout money over 12-14 years in FA. no doubt about it.
Dock_Elvis
Yeah we can bury the “generational” thing. A generational player would simply be that. The player of their generation. Mike Trout was given that appellation. It’s tossed around like “genius” now.
notnamed
famous last words
Yankee Clipper
I want to see Juan Soto grow a Matt Carpenter mustache and square off with Mike Rizzo over this, Tombstone style. “I’m your huckleberry, Mike”
Braveslifer
Which can be translated to “We will look at all offers and take the best one at the trade deadline”.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Sports Junkies are still on the air? Do they have a studio at a seniors center?
Luke Strong
If they’re not going to trade him and they want to build around him, they need to make him a legit extension and make him the centerpiece of the team. I believe he’s the best hitter in the game and has a HOF career ahead of him, might as well just ask him what he wants for a deal and give him exactly what he wants. He is a solid bet.
Pads Fans
Soto is making $17 million in 2022 and is looking at arbitration prices of $24-28 million in 2023 and $30-32 million in 2024. AAV goes up from the final year of arbitration eligibility. Typically by 20% or more.
If he only gets $30 million in arbitration for the 2024 season, that means $36 million AAV at a minimum for a FA deal.
He will be turn 26 in October 2024 when he hits FA, so he is looking at a 12 year deal at a minimum. The Nats offered 13 years, so we know that length of deal is on the table.
12 years and $36+ million AAV = .$432+ million. I would consider that the base for a FA deal. More if there is money that is deferred.
I would be willing to bet that Soto is asking for 14 years, $480 million for an extension. An AAV of $34.28 million.
Deleted Userrr
I think he’s going to try to break the $500m barrier.
geoffb1982
Hjelle, Yaz, Bart, Doval, Webb, Luciano and Heliot Ramos for Juan Soto
outinleftfield
Sooooo, what team will Soto be traded to? That is like a vote of confidence for a manager. He’s gone.
Steve Adams
I listed every recent example of a GM going on record to say a player won’t be traded. None of them were traded.
I can’t recall one example of a current/recent MLB GM saying, on record, “I will not trade this player” — and then trading him.
Of course that doesn’t make it impossible, but it certainly doesn’t make it likely.
Again, Rizzo could’ve done what most GMs do and just said, “I’m not going to comment on that kind of speculation, because that’s all it is.” He chose to make a declarative statement.
Pads Fans
Red Sox with Betts?
outinleftfield
Rockies with Arenado and Story. Cubs with several. Give me 20 minutes and I will list a dozen more.
Deleted Userr
The Rockies didn’t trade Trevor Story. And Steve actually addressed Nolan Arenado in the article. Plus that was Jeff Bridich who said Nolan wouldn’t be traded. He stepped down before Nolan was traded.
Dock_Elvis
There has to be context behind statements, and some kind of end game to accountability for them. I take statements to be seasonal. Go into the off-season and it’s an organizational reset.
pinterman
In other words, he’s available for the right price.
Deleted Userr
Padres fans take note.
Javia135
Are you ready to give up Gore, Abrams and Hassell for him? Maybe Campusano as well? I doubt most Padre fans are.
Deleted Userr
You missed the point. Padres fans on Twitter seem to think Soto going to SD is a matter of when, not if. This article begs to differ.
jintman
They can always change their minds but the offer would need to a Godfather offer.
Pads Fans
Soto turned down an extension. He is under team control for only 2 more years, 2023 and 2024.
The Nationals have so many holes that filling them all in FA is not a possibility, especially considering that 11 more players will be FA at the end of 2022.
There is only one prospect in their system, Cavalli, that might help the team before 2025 and he is struggling in AAA this season. Their farm system is barren at the top levels. Competing for an East title is at least 3 years away. So why would they keep Soto?
The answer is that they won’t. Rizzo is posturing to keep fans interested for another couple months and allow Soto to rebound from a rough start to 2022 before he is shipped out.
In fact, not only will they move Soto, they must move Soto to rebuild their system and have a chance at competing in a few years. IMAGINE the package of players they will get back.
So, who are they moving him to and what will they get in return?
What are the Nats biggest needs? Pitching?
2 MLB players with 3-4 years of team control and 2 top 100 prospects sound like enough?
Javia135
Abrams, Gore, Cronenworth and who else?
Deleted Userr
Why would you trade a guy who is on pace to win ROY this year that’s a terrible argument.
Javia135
I wouldn’t trade Gore for Soto straight up at this point. I’m just saying the kind of package it would take to get him. In the chat that just finished Steve Allen made a couple of suggestions on what it would take to get Soto in the last question. The answer? Shane Baz, Josh Lowe, Vidal Brujan plus from the Rays or Gore, Abrams, Hassell and Campusano from the Padres. Neither is going to happen. 2 years of Soto is nowhere near worth the cost it would take to acquire him.
Deleted Userr
You also mention Cronenworth. You understand he only has one more year of control than Soto does right? If you think the Nats are wasting Soto by not trading him the same would be true of Cronenworth if he were included.
Javia135
He mentioned 2 MLB players with 3-4 years of control. Crone was the only player who fit that criteria and has significant trade value.
Deleted Userr
Again, if keeping Soto would be a waste, trading for Cronenworth would be a waste. Unless you are of the opinion that 2025 is THE (singular) year for the Nats.
Javia135
You can take that up with PadsFan Harambe. I know the Nats would rather have all premium prospects. He seems to think they will want a couple of current MLB players with 3-4 years of control.
Deleted Userr
That would be pointless. If you think they are wasting Soto, if they trade him for guys who are already in the majors they would also be wasting those guys.
If you wanna piss Pads Fans off ask him about his other accounts.
kodiak920
Cole Henry will up before 2025, and possibly before Cavalli.
outinleftfield
It took a #1 overall prospect plus another top 30 prospect and 2 others in the Red Sox top 10 to get Sale. I think it will take more to get Soto at the deadline this season. I don’t think your Padres are a good fit. The Nats biggest needs are, well, the entire team. Especially pitching, they rank at or near the bottom and nearly their entire BP will be gone at season’s end. Every position other than catcher and CF is suspect if Soto is moved or will be losing the player filling the position to free agency at the end of this season. So 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, and DH would all be holes in the lineup starting in 2023 if Soto is traded.
kodiak920
As a point of context, does anyone know what the Astros offered to acquire Harper?
Deleted Userr
IIRC it was a 3-for-1 deal with the headliner being J. B. Bukauskas.
outinleftfield
nbcsports.com/washington/nationals/bryce-harper-wo….
Padres2019ha
Oops you accidentally switched accounts, Ryan
Deleted Userr
Ryan and outinleftfield hate each other Einstein.
Rsox
The Nationals can’t openly say they are shopping one of the top players in all of Baseball. Whether or not they are fielding offers is another story. You have to listen, it doesn’t matter who the player is, unless they have a big money contract that’s unmovable every one is “available” for the right price
doxiedevil
The Nats can wait until Soto is a free agent and get nothing back in return……. tick , toc.
Goose
To trade Soto you would have to find a team with the money to sign him, already a contender or close and has a deep farm team where you get 4 or 5 quality prospects. I just don’t see it, especially with 2 years left of control.
Deleted Userr
Why would it have to be a team with the money to sign him? Trading for Soto and signing him aren’t a package deal. In fact, he probably WILL go to free agency.
And yes… Teams trade for impact players and then lose them to free agency all the time. Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Aroldis Chapman, Manny Machado, Starling Marte, etc.
When it was a game.
I think of Arod. Rangers signed best player in game and couldn’t afford to do anything else.
jdgoat
If they’re not trading Soto, how are they going to acquire Biggio, Borucki, and Tapia?
Jaysfan1981
Soto for Moreno/Groshans/Martinez plus 2 others of their choosing from any level of the Farm
Jaysfan1981
Biggio Burucki and Tapia sounds about right for Josh Bell though
yankista
Jejejeje ….. who care ?? They gonna lose him anyway
Adampunk13
They need to trade or they will lose out on package. They need to sign him or he will go somewhere else. Either way juan soto not a national
MarlinsFanBase
Aw shucks! Don’t the Nats front office know that they are taking away the fun of E!SPN and FOX Sports finding ways to tell everyone that Soto will be traded to the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets? Now what will they do?
Bill Brasky
I don’t know if they’ll trade him or not. One thing I know is a GM saying this means nothing.