The Reds have a pair of the top trade candidates on this summer’s market, with starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each midway through their penultimate seasons of club control. Rotation-needy teams will be in discussion with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff over the next six weeks, and a few have already expressed early interest in Castillo.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Twins, Mets and Padres among the clubs in the market. That surely won’t be an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender could find room in their starting five for a pitcher of that caliber. Castillo is playing this season on an affordable $7.35MM salary (a bit more than half of which is still owed), so most clubs shouldn’t have an issue fitting him in the picture financially.
Castillo has been one of the sport’s more consistently productive arms over the past few years. Despite spending his entire MLB career with a team that plays in one of the most hitter-friendly home ballparks, the righty has an ERA below 4.00 in five of his six seasons. That includes this year’s 3.71 mark through nine starts and 51 innings.
The 29-year-old’s underlying numbers haven’t been quite as strong in 2022 as they’d been in prior years. His 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging strike percentage are right around this season’s respective league averages for starters. Castillo’s 49.6% ground-ball rate is strong but down from the 55-58% range in which he sat every year from 2019-21. He’s also lost a tick on the average velocity of his four-seam and sinking fastballs, perhaps related to a bout of shoulder soreness that cost him the first month of the year.
While Castillo’s first couple months might be a bit underwhelming relative to his lofty standards, there’ll still be no shortage of demand. Even his slightly diminished fastball checks in north of 96 MPH on average. His performance this season has remained solid — his 3.71 ERA and 3.88 SIERA are below the respective 4.10 and 4.09 league marks for starters — and the native of the Dominican Republic has shown impact potential in the past. Between 2019-21, Castillo ranked among the top 25 qualified pitchers in ERA and strikeout rate and posted the sport’s second-highest grounder percentage.
With that kind of resume, it’s no surprise rival teams are in contact with the Reds already. The Twins are among the most straightforward candidates for a rotation pickup, and they also figure to explore the market for other high-end arms like Mahle and the A’s Frankie Montas. Minnesota enters play Thursday percentage points back of the Guardians in the AL Central, with the White Sox looming as a divisional threat four games behind them. Minnesota’s rotation started strong but has been tagged for a 4.80 ERA over the past month, a stretch that’s coincided with injured list stints for Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack (the latter of whom is done for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery).
The Mets, on the other hand, have a star-studded rotation when healthy. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill are all currently on the injured list, and they’ve been on the periphery of the market for most available stars over the past twelve months. Scherzer is expected back imminently (perhaps as soon as this weekend), while deGrom continues to progress from the scapula stress reaction he suffered during Spring Training. The club is hopeful he’ll back before the August 2 deadline, but Megill is likely to be on the shelf beyond that point.
One could argue that New York should prioritize areas beyond rotation help, but the Padres’ presence in the Castillo market illustrates that even teams without a clear need figure to at least perform due diligence. San Diego already has an excellent six-man staff of Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, Yu Darvish, MacKenzie Gore, Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell. That’s forced offseason signee Nick Martinez into a swing role, and prevailing opinion is they’re likelier to deal from that surplus than add another impact starter. Between their rotation depth and the fact they’re right up against the $230MM base competitive balance tax threshold, the Friars feel like a longshot to land an arm of Castillo’s caliber. That was perhaps true of Manaea as well, however, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown time and again he’s willing to act boldly to land players the organization desires.
No Castillo deal is imminent, of course, and there’ll be plenty more teams in the bidding over the coming weeks. The Reds don’t have to move either he or Mahle with an additional season of control, but their trade value will probably never again be as high as it’ll be this summer. At 23-46, Cincinnati has no chance of contending this year. Moving Castillo and/or Mahle would deal a key blow to the 2023 roster, but this year’s struggles may hint at a broader overhaul being necessary. The Reds didn’t go into this season intending to rebuild, but their efforts to remain competitive while subtracting some key players to pare back payroll were dashed out of the gate by a 3-18 showing in April.
I didn’t realize Luis could draw, but his pitching history is sketchy
The Rays on the other hand can barely draw any fans to their home games (unless they play Boston or NY).
I see what you did there, I likey…
Tbh I don’t blame them.
Waste Management really missed out on a big opportunity by not securing the naming rights to that garbage dump of a stadium.
Very original. Can’t remember the last time someone commented about attendance at Rays’ games…
Insert eyeroll.
Sideline – Well it’s true (and funny). I’m sorry that it bothers you 🙂
Something I’ve wondered about, and maybe you can explain it if you’re a Rays fan, Sideline:
The common explanation Rays fans give for not showing up to games, even when their team is in first place and a lock for the playoffs, is that the stadium is just too inaccessible because of the location.
What I’m wondering is: how come it seems accessible to so many Yankees and Red Sox fans?
The way I see it is that TB is a city of transplants. The reason they draw well against the RS & NYY is that there are a lot of RS & NYY fans living there now.
And YS is pretty accessible by subway & Metronorth.
That doesn’t explain why the transplanted Yankee and Red Sox fans can get to Tropicana Field but Rays fans can’t.
The problem is they will trade him for a crap player , reds need new owners
He’s going to be a Dodger!
I doubt the Padres will deal an arm…
They’ve got several guys in contract years..I could see AJ dealing Snell, Clev ++ for a bat or two, then going after Castillo for the extra year of control..and they’ve got a big 40 man roster crunch coming up..
Why would they do that after giving up all that capital to acquire Snell and Clev? That just sounds like a weird lateral move that doesn’t actually help the team.
And as you mentioned, several of their players will be free agents after this season. That will take care of the so-called “roster crunch.”
Good point and Preller rarely goes for rental’s at the trade deadline, preferring players with at least 1 more year of control. The Padres should move Snell to an American League Team who then provides prospects to the Reds. The Padres would most likely have to throw in some prospects as well. The Padres could shed Snell’s salary, p/u Castillo and work another deal to add another bat with the extra salary relief from moving Snell’s contract. This also helps the Padres in 2023. The Padres playoff rotation of Musgrove, Yu, Castillo & Manaea would be as good as anyone’s with Gore, Clevinger & Martinez coming out of the pen.
Preller trades for rentals all the time. Rosenthal? Moreland? Hudson? Marisnick? The idea with a rental is that the other team has to trade him so he won’t cost as much as a similarly talented player with more club control and if you actually do manage to make a deep playoff run and he helps then him walking after the season isn’t as big of a deal.
Montas or Castillo will be a Dodger by deadline, bank it!
Montas made the on-fire Mariners look silly today, his ERA went down to 3.21 – he’s the far better bet.
The 7 games under .500 and 5-5 in last 10 “on fire” Mariners? My kid makes them look silly when I’m watching a game and she says “I thought you said you were gonna watch baseball”
PS thanks for the 9th inning today. We literally won by doing nothing.
Here’s my two cents on Montas. Aside from a PED suspension which honestly I don’t mind but it might reflect some work ethic issues, I find issue with splitterballers. I personally dabbled with offspeeds while teaching myself to pitch, which again in the end I recognize I know nearly nothing about pro pitching, the splitter grip seems to need to vary everytime you go to a new place. That sentiment is occasionally reflected in broadcasts by Orel Hershsaisser when facing a splitter guy. In the end I just worry about Montas finding success in a new environment if and when he is traded. At the same time this problem may be slightly nullified by humidors in every park attempting to make the ball the same wetness. All in all, I am not a pro talent evaluator or scout but my opinion is that buyer beware on Montas. He will be good as he is indeed a good if not great starter but those first few starts, especially for a NL team, could be rough.
If this were truly an issue, wouldn’t it be reflected in him having horrible road splits?
I think first inning road splits might show something but again there is something to be said about him being a professional in a time of great pitching tech
He also has a higher first inning era than any inning besides the third eighth and ninth inning in his career
MLB teams score more runs in the first inning than in any other inning:
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/sergio-romo-starts-tampa-bay-rays-bullpen-day-angels-ryan-yarbrough-kevin-cash/x1j76bmygx2m1tpuqixulkesb
BTW, Montas has only pitched 15.0 innings in the 8th inning and 5.1 innings in the 9th inning. Most starters don’t go that far into a game on a regular basis.
If the Pads are dealing I’d like to see Philly look at Martinez. Is a trade centered around him for Didi viable with SD needing some extra infield production with Manny and Tatis out?
Manny isn’t even looking at IL and Tatis, after waiting this long for him (having 2nd most wins in NL) and he is expected back in a few weeks, I don’t see a trade for Didi being what Padres would need. They have Abrams (though not hitting his glove isn’t an issue. A trade for an Of bat for Snell or Martinez could make sense though.
Is Herrera plus a low level prospect something doable?
Some are going to say don’t even consider trading a SP (remember 2021 meltdown). IF a trade were to happen, I’d say this could work for Martinez for this reason: Martinez has a player option at about 7/mil per year. My take is that he is a very likely FA at end of year. So if he is gone anyway (as opposed to a nice #5 next year), then why not strengthen a position of need. Could make argument for Snell too – he is at 16/mil next year and that money could go toward a FA bat.
I’d wait until the last minute though and wait for potential injury to hit.
Some will say this isn’t enough or he isn’t good enough to improve team but, you cant expect a lot from the available Of bats this year unless you give up a lot of talent and I’d hold our top prospects over a rental all day long.
Negative DarkSide830. A reliable starting pitcher is worth far more than a 30 yo OF who hasn’t had an OPS+ over 100 in 4 years and who is in the last year of his contract.
The scenario I was laying out would depend on the prospect being on the better side. I’d like better then Herrera but what can you expect for Snell right now even up? You said “reliable” starting pitcher – is he right now? Has been since he has been here – except last few starts in 2021.
As for Martinez – he looks to be a reliever the rest of the way and I like him for sure but I think he is gone via the option so, there is that.
And I’m only offering and argument for why it could work – not that it needs to right now with Mazara and Azocar filling in and Myers maybe coming back AND maybe Tatis would play RF – well, maybe.
Martinez, as mentioned, has player options after every season. That would make him very tricky to trade.
They can’t trade Snell unless they get Luis Patiño and Cole Wilcox back (or something like them).
Average hitters don’t have much value. Martinez is cost controlled until 2026. 3 padres starters are soon to be free agents and 2 others the following year.
Martinez is just an example. You could swap a guy like Snell in, perhaps.
The problem isn’t with what starting pitcher goes to the Phillies. The problem is that the player you are offering to trade is offensively equivalent to the Padres current #4 OF with worse defense, much less control and twice the money. Any starting arm is worth more than that to the Padres.
LTC said the Pads needed an OF, and I asked if Herrera was of interest. Perhaps he isn’t, but the dude can play CF, is cheap, and can hold his own at the bat (and has shown as recently as last season to be a solid hitter for CF). If that’s not desirable that’s okay, I was just curious if both teams could swap from deeper areas to get guys at positions where they may need more help.
I understand, I just don’t think that the trade would work. You would be looking at trading for either Snell or Martinez. Martinez is a quality starter with an ERA under 4 and Snell has a history of huge second halves of the season. That is more valuable to the Padres than another below average OF bat. The Padres would be interested in Schwarber for Snell or Martinez but I am guessing the Phillies wouldn’t. It would take more. Unfortunately neither Snell nor Martinez is worth Schwarber and both are more valuable than Herrera. To the Padres at least.
The Padres’ rotation isn’t deep. If it was they wouldn’t have traded for Manaea and signed Martinez.
Check the contract – Martinez can walk after every year – a careful read was my saying that I think he is a FA and we lose him anyway. Maybe not but if he pitches this well he may be expecting a better deal.
He is a free agent after the end of the year. First site I went to says ufa 2026. BS. After this year he is a free agent any year he wants. If healthy he is using that option. Still think they would want a better bat and didi is too expensive.
You take Herrera (see my post about his Petco ops) maybe add 1 million and a prospect and then you have room on luxury tax to go get another bat that you really wanted – if you are so inclined to trade a prospect for that guy and I’m not really inclined for that step.
Herrera is worthless. You can talk about his amazing OPS at Petco Park all you want but we all know he is a borderline starter at best. The Padres LIKE having extra starters. They aren’t going to trade any of them for worthless players with no control.
The way their outfield is performing they may not need a guy in August. May want a upgrade at 1b dh.
You might be right but this is a conversation about possibilities but you may have inside info that we don’t have.
Or I could just say: do you know who the Padres GM is and what his track record is for making deals that you least expect (or like / agree with)?
Voit is doing well enough after returning from IL.
We are stuck with Hoz so 1b isn’t getting upgraded. He is fair enough since we are stuck with him.
Yes I had said Mazara and Azocar and possibly Myers or even Tatis – of isnt as big of a mess as it was 30-40 games ago for sure.
Ironically, Herrera has over 1.000 ops at Petco in 48 ABs.
So there is that to throw into the conversation.
Martinez isn’t really controlled till 2026 because of his opt outs. If he is there till 2026, the contract probably didn’t go well for the padres
Does Herrera even have 100 PA’s at PETCO Park?
Martinez is tough to trade because he has player options after every season.
Sources say Giants are willing to trade Casey McGhee back for Castillo.
Were you just joking about this? Otherwise McGhee and what other three players?
Cleveland needs either a starter or a couple of relief pitchers.
Castillo’s prorated salary is workable. In turn they have an overabundance of quality prospects on both their 26 man and 40 man to use in trade. They will be active going into the deadline. Castillo is a possibility, others as well.
Reds GM Nick Krall doesn’t have a working relationship with Cleveland, something about bumping heads on a possible Lindor trade a couple of years ago. Unlikely, the two teams would even talk, let alone come to an agreement.
Links please, if Krall holds this type of grudge he needs to be removed. Is it true Reds fans?
I hope MLB GM’s are not that childish. I am sure Reds will listen to all offers and if Cleveland is best they make the deal. Only teams I can not see Redst trading Castillo or Mahle to is in the NL central.
CLE’s most pressing need is bullpen. They won’t lift a finger to bring in another SP. They’ll go after a reliever, and that’s about it.
Not what Tom Hamilton said doing todays game.
While the padres have a number of quality starters with high upside. The 3 that are reliable are darvish, manaea and mustgrove.
I could see them go after castillo since he has an extra year of control.
They have manaea, mustgrove, clevinger and possibly Martinez as free agents next year. They may look at castillo as insurance vs spending big a free agent next off season.
They may even be willing to trade for castillo. Then move one or two of snell, clevinger or Martinez. Unless they have something big brewing and decide to trade gore.
This is Preller and he is usually on just about everyone so who knows.
Just no pretty much all the way – especially trade of Gore.
Better to keep prospects and pay Musgrove and either Clev or Manaea in FA than trade for Castillo.
Why would the Padres trade Snell or Clevinger after giving up all that capital to acquire them that’s a terrible argument.
And trading them just to trade for Castillo just sounds like a weird lateral move that doesn’t actually help the team.
And trading Gore would be about the dumbest thing they could possibly do. The guy is on track to win Rookie of the Year.
The Snell trade is an L for Preller. I don’t think what Preller traded for Snell has anything to do with Preller trading him now. If [and this is a big if] Snell can follow his pattern of pitching better in the 2nd half, he could be part of a 3 Team trade with an American League Team and Cincinnati. The Padres get a good starter [Castillo] for 2022 & 2023 at a much less cost [than Snell] and create more salary space to get another bat for the playoffs.
I thinks it’s more about Preller moving his chess pieces [and the salaries] around the board to make San Diego’s roster better and more efficient. Castillo is as good a pitcher as Snell but far cheaper salary wise going forward in 2023. The Padres are so close to putting a World Series roster together and to be honest 2022 and 2023 are the years they have to push hard for it.
Absolutely what Preller traded for Snell has to do with trading him now! If they trade him for anything less than Patiño and Wilcox the net effect is that the Rays traded Snell to Team C with Preller paying more than half the freight. And for what?
Also, if the Padres were in position to trade a starter away they never would have traded for Sean Manaea or given Nick Martinez that god-awful contract (like him as a player, don’t like giving him or any player opt-outs after every season).
The Mets are the most interested in Castillo and want the trade done before the AS game. They have offered Alverez and Mauricio. Sounds like the Reds want another prospect other than Mauricio. I just as soon the Reds accept the offer. They want to move Stephenson to 1B next season and Votto to DH. Alverez would fit nicely into their plans.
Are you in the Reds FO trying to drive up the price? There is no way they offered those two for Castillo. They wouldn’t offer Alvarez in any deal at this point. They have said he is untouchable. Maybe Mauricio because he is blocked by Lindor but Alvarez is not going anywhere.
The Mets aren’t trading Francisco Alvarez. In anything but an absolute blockbuster. They would probably move Ronny Mauricio in the right deal but they aren’t trading Alvarez.
2 top 100 prospects at minimum for La Piedra. As Mahle, hold on to him unless blown away.
What pitchers have brought that recently?
Berrios would be a pretty good comp for Castillo.
Check and mate there. And I’d argue Castillo has more value with more high-level production in the past.
We’re edging closer to that time of the year and the Mets are going to get attached to every trade candidate.
And they will continue to be, my friend. Reds blew their opportunity with Castillo, imo. His value has dropped so much based on his IL stints coupled with shorter control & not performing as well.
@Clip. Yep. Take a page out of the A’s book.
Funny thing is he had too much value last offseason to move. No team would give up the prospect capital to acquire him. I actually think this is perfect, he’s got a lot of value with 1.5 years of control, without an overwhelming asking price.
Yeah, your point is certainly valid in that context. If he stayed healthy, it would’ve been optimal, but I don’t think they will net what many had hoped for him.
I guess I should’ve been more specific, because “value” is a relative term. But, I agree with you, the costs last season was quite a bit higher, imo, too high based on what I read.
But, it’s water under the bridge now. I am curious to see who acquires him and for what costs because many players have gone for less than the anticipated returns.
Depends on what they were asking for before. What they’re asking for now. And what they want at the deadline. So many questions… Did the Reds have contention aspirations this year? I’m not really sure.
Reds blew their opportunity with Castillo, imo.
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They’ll still get paid, imo, but yeah, they should’ve moved Gray, Castillo, and Suarez earlier, when they had more value. Their window really should’ve been 2023-2027, not 2020-2022.
Reds don’t need another shortstop with 4 already in the organization. A trade of Castillo to the Mets starts with Brett Baty. Add Alex Ramirez and Mike Vasil and that would get it done.
I don’t think Castillo will get the Reds 2-top 100 prospects anymore. I don’t know if he will even get them one.
Javia: See my comment above – I agree. There’s no way he will net two top-100 prospects anymore. They waited way too long to deal him for some strange reason.
Mets doesn’t have much in their farm system. A trade either the Padres. Rays or Twins could be a better haul.
Cincinnatikid keep dreaming. Neither Baty or Alvarez are going anywhere.
Then Castillo will be in the Braves rotation starting in August.
Nah all you get is sleepy Dom Smith former 1st Round Draft Choice drafted in Front of Aaron Judge. LOL
No way on Baty. I don’t know how Vientos fits in to the Mets future plans, but he is not enough as a headliner to get it done
Atlanta is gonna be all over him.
Perry Mayonnaisian reads the Reds are getting trade interest and opts to skip roster improvements…doubles down on his post Maddon firing quote…
“I think we have the right group of individuals. We have *90+ games to prove it. And I’m excited about the next *90+ games.”
*was 106 games at the time of Maddon firing.
The Angels badly need a quality SP and SS (someone like Kyle Farmer? perhaps??) until that happens this team isn’t winning enough for a playoff spot. They have got to figure out a way to upgrade the inning killer SS/2B bats (Velazquez, Wade, Duffy, Rengifo) and maintain .975+ fielding %.
Need to deepen the lineup. Farmer is barely an average hitter in Cincinnati. Take Moustakas contract. Give up less for Castillo. Duffy has a 297 slugging percentage. And isn’t good defensively at 3rd base. Yes I know Moustakas is having a down year. But I trust Moustakas more than Duffy.
SS Farmer .286/.343/.433, 5HR/38RBI OPS+ 107
Moustakas .210/.315/.310, 3/14 OPS+ 69 is just another bad hitter he improves NOTHING for the angels lineup. No thanks.
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SS Velazquez .176/.223/.271, 4/18 OPS+ 41
MI Wade .219/.262/.277, 1/8 OPS+ 55
MI Rengifo .214/.267/.333, 2/8 OPS+ 71
MI Duffy .266/.314/.297, 0/5 OPS+ 77
UT Mayfield .186/.230/.271, 1/6 OPS+ 43
All crappy innings killers.
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Give Stefanic and his potent ~.320 bat a shot at 2B.
Trade for Farmer at SS. He’s not an all-star but certainly above league average.
Upgrade 2 of the MI bats and they should be able to hold their own defensively. .975 FLD% would be acceptable.
Fletcher (due back soon, AS break?) can be the utility middle infielder until he proves healthy to play everyday, then take back 2B if Stefanic struggles.
until that happens this team isn’t winning enough for a playoff spot.
================================
Unless LAA turns it around in the next 3-4 weeks, I think it would be foolish of them to trade for Castillo. Playing .600 the rest of the way leaves them with only 88 wins. I don’t think LAA can play .600 for 90 games, and I don’t think 88 wins gets them a WC slot, imho.
To play .600+ baseball they (PERRY) needs to address the SS/2B issue (hint:UPGRADE) and find a SP capable of more than 4.1IP per start.
CIN gets: Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Josh Donaldson
NYY gets: Luis Castillo
How about King , Schmidt , Perriera, O. Pereza , Medina, and Florial
For Castillo or Mahle
And a good reliever Hoffman , TJ Antone ?
No. Yankees declined a Torres/Castillo swap when Castillo performed better, was younger, and had more control.
Right now, the Yankees need Gleyber more than they need Castillo. They have arguably *the* top rotation in the AL & perhaps the MLB. They simply don’t need him. And, Torres is a top-performing 2B on offense & defense in the AL… they do need him.
Torres is an average baseball player
Torres 2.6 WAR this year would make him well above average.
Yankee fans are something (thought I had them all blocked)……
Why would the Reds want Gleyber when their best player is a 2B?
Why would they want Donaldson and his salary when they’d love to clear Moustakas and his salary?
Would they take a chance on Andujar? Sure. But they’d want a couple of other quality prospects as well.
Yup, definitely not happening. Donaldson is 36+, with a .714 OPS, is owed ~ $32M over the next 1.5 years, and has an $8M buyout in 2024.
Andujar has a negative bWAR over the past four years. Torres is carrying my roto teams, but his value is largely negated by Donaldson’s negative value.
So the Reds who are trying to cut payroll take on that Donaldson contract nfw ridiculous proposal doa.
Castillo to the Yankees for Clint Frazier (from Cubs) + a 35 year old AA player.
This seems about right
Or Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Dom Acevado
For Castillo , India , Senzel
Now that’s funny…GOH!
To make it fair they should throw in some money to cover the contracts of those Reds players. NYY shouldn’t be on the hook for everything.
If the Reds have a pressing need in 23, it’s OF. They have a lot of middle infielders, and pitchers at the top of their prospect list. 1B is also going to be an issue when Votto retires in 24.
None of the Phillies OFers make sense for Pads.. no good on Defense… and Pads need a CFer upgrade over Grishman offensively..only Hays (Baltimore) and Reynolds (Pitt) out of would be available CFer capable players would be considered upgrades in my view … and Mancini who could be 1B/DH/RF would be a lot cheaper to acquire since he is expiring ..so I don’t see a match with Phillies at all…
“The Reds didn’t go into this season intending to rebuild.” Right, they went into this season intending to offload as much payroll as possible.
Trying to rebuild would have cost more, to maximize the prospect return
The Padres, though their need for a SP isn’t as dire as a few others, have prospects a-go-go in their system. I bet Castillo and Mahle would love switching home parks. Of the two, Castillo is the more likely to be traded IMHO.
I could see the Braves making a big push for Castillo. Their 5th SP slot has been unsettled and I’m not sure Strider is the answer. More of a power reliever IMHO. Maybe Castillo for Kyle Mueller and Drew Watters? Big LH starting pitcher and a CFer who can cover all the ground from Cincinnati to Dayton. Done deal by me if I’m the GM for either side.
The Reds are not interested in the Yankees over-paid trash.
Padres. Mackenzie Gore is showing signs that he’ll need Tommy John.
Mack has lost velocity in three successive starts. Got lit up on two of them.
Since he arrived to the show much later than expected, his problems over the last couple of years and now, when he finally makes it, he’s having problems… He is not going to voluntarily offer up that he’s having pains.