The Braves have opened extension talks with Dansby Swanson, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. At this point, there’s nothing to indicate that talks have moved beyond the initial stages, though Heyman adds that there is “less whispered negativity” with these discussions than there was with Freddie Freeman a year ago. Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management, who also represented Freeman until he reportedly dismissed them in June.
How far the talks with Swanson have progressed isn’t clear, though it’s noteworthy that they have begun, with Swanson just a few months away from reaching free agency. The Braves have been the most aggressive team in baseball when it comes to locking up their star players. All of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II have agreed to lengthy pacts in recent years, with those latter two just coming in the past month.
However, Swanson’s case is a bit different than those other players, as none of them were on the verge of reaching the open market. The 28-year-old is just a few months away from having multiple teams bidding for his services, which likely means it will take a significant payout to prevent him from taking that opportunity. Furthermore, the timing of his free agency could hardly be any better from his perspective, since he’s having easily the best season of his career.
Swanson has hit .292/.348/.455 this season, coming into tonight’s action. That offensive production is 22% better than league average, as evidenced by his 122 wRC+. Outside of a cup of coffee in his debut season and a strong showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, his previous high in that department was the 98 wRC+ he registered last year. He’s also added 15 steals already, eclipsing his previous personal best of 10.
He seems to have taken steps forward on the defensive side of things as well, depending on which defensive metric you trust the most. Outs Above Average is the most bullish, giving Swanson 14 on the year already, doubling his previous personal best, which was a seven back in 2018. Runs Above Average is also impressed, having never given him better than five but setting him at 10 so far this season. Defensive Runs Saved also likes his work, valuing him at six so far, on pace to get near his previous high of nine. Ultimate Zone Rating appears to be the outlier here, rating Swanson’s glove work at -0.7 after having him at 1.1 last season.
All told, FanGraphs calculates Swanson to have been worth 5.1 wins above replacement so far this year, easily eclipsing his personal record, the 3.4 he accrued last year. That total is also good enough for Swanson to be seventh in the majors among position players.
If an extension were not reached, Swanson would surely find no shortage of interest in his services based on this excellent platform he’s putting together. This coming offseason figures to feature another strong class of shortstops, with Swanson likely to be joined by Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner at the top of it. In the most recent edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, all four shortstops cracked the list, with Swanson taking the seventh slot.
Whether the Braves can tempt Swanson from forgoing that opportunity remains to be seen. The aforementioned Freddie Freeman was in a similar position at this point last year, with many around the industry assuming the two sides would reunite. That didn’t end up happening, with the Braves instead acquiring Matt Olson to play first base and Freeman joining the Dodgers. If the Swanson situation were to go a different route and he did end up agreeing to stay, Atlanta could pencil him into the infield next to Olson, Riley and Albies for years to come.
With every extension…Freddie cries a little bit longer
hi
halolo
Hi. Wanna be my queen? Send me money first. Please.
Amazing.
3 out of 4 from the already crowned 2022 World Series Mets! Lol
Yessir
Tru dat
I’m surprised MF 22 hasn’t chimed in on the Braves taking 3 out of 4 games with the Mets.
So that makes you 4-5 in the last two weeks.
Yeah, so that means the teams are evenly match.
I don’t think freeman is overly too upset about his huge contract in Los Angeles… not like he’s Seager playing in Texas.
Even I, a cubs fan, can admit that the dodgers are the best tan organzation in baseball.
They are also well run.
How
Probably a phone call.
Man if the braves pull this off. They got one hell of a fo.
How ridiculous are these defensive metric rankings? Two of them have Swanson ranked at career best levels, a third has him ranked very high on the season while UZR has him ranked below average on the season (-0.7). How can UZR be so far below the rest of these ranking formulas?
The fact that some of these defensive ratings are used to calculate player’s WAR illustrates how subjective the WAR calculation really is. Maybe I’m more old school but I still think BA, strikeout rates, extra base hits, OBP, slugging % and OPS paints a better overall picture of a player’s value than WAR really does as too much weight is put into these unpredictable defensive ratings. Look no further than Joey Gallo. His WAR results over previous seasons are ridiculously high compared to his actual, on field production due to artificially high defensive rankings. WAR, what is good for?
It’s just another additional tool. Don’t think it’s the end all be all oin your decision making process.
Unfortunately, to many idiots it is!
Additional notoriously those metrics are different. So again use all at you disposal to aid in your decision making process
Or just use your eyes. Numbers don’t truly measure athletic ability in baseball, body type etc, all needed in range and ability to stick at short long term.
Every front office uses their own calculations. Anyone that watches Swanson play regularly can see he’s an above average defensive SS. In the case of UZR, it’s largely based on fielding position, and fielders move around a lot more based on matchups than they used to, which can negatively, and inaccurately skew the statistic, so it isn’t necessarily reflective of a player’s actual defensive abilities.
Swanson looks so much more comfortable at the plate than he ever has before. He couldn’t hit sliders for years, but now he has great plate coverage, and has been great with two strikes, which also used to be one of his biggest weaknesses. If the numbers make sense for both sides, would love for the Braves to lock him up long term. I don’t think his improvement is a contract year fluke. I think he could potentially even improve more over the next few seasons.
The public defensive statistics have always been a joke. Been writing that for years. Someone programs up an algorithm and the uninitiated treat it as gospel.
Pitch framing is my favorite. As if that’s what makes a good Catcher….which doesn’t even account for how inaccurate the results are.
No matter how you feel about today’s defensive metrics, they are all far more accurate than the laughable statistic known as fielding percentage, which was used for years and still is by some old-school fans.
The defensive metrics cost the Cubs $184M with Heyward
We had a guy on a Braves message board spend 2 years bashing Tyler Flowers. Then Fangraphs updated WAR to include pitch framing and that same person stopped on a dime and demanded the GM be fired for not extending Flowers lol
This is a really stupid take. Heyward’s defense wasn’t the problem his wRC+ dropping by 20-50+points, was.
For what its worth, Baseball reference has Dansby listed at 3.9 oWAR and only a 1.5 dWAR. He’s also accounted for 6.6. oWAR in the past 2 years. I’m not so certain that his value’s getting inflate because of his defense more so the fact he’s taken the next step with his bat.
Let him walk! Sign a better player, we got the money! Big SS class, go get an elite player that has proven it every year! Not someone who’s only been good for 1 year!
But in all seriousness, I’d be pretty happy if he came back, but this class is loaded
Dansby is a great SS, let’s take a look at the “elite” shortstops you speak about and see that they aren’t worth the massive contracts they got. Dansby is great for this team
Stick with Dansby. That infield is awesome!
Let’s say they get a stud… turner? What’s the cost 35 annual? How high can atl go with the payroll to fill in other needs and arb.
I doubt the Braves spend the money for turner but would be fun to see Turner Acuna and Harris stealing bases all the time
There are discussions that the braves will be a top 5 payroll in baseball, and their #’s are public, so it’s tough to argue that they don’t have the money to go get turner and fill in other needs. Plus these team friendly extension they keep signing are only helping their long term potential. It wouldnt shock me if a guy like turner sees the future and takes a lower, albeit not much lower, contract just to compete for the next 10 years. Point being, don’t over analyze this
The Braves will have to have a Top 5 payroll just to keep most of this team together.. Simply picking up Morton’s option for next year already puts 180 million on the books for 2023. There’s not enough money for Turner.
There is no way that the Braves are paying Trea Turner what he will command on the open market. And there’s also no way he takes a discount to be on a winning team. Forget it.
You make a valid point about paying huge bucks for somebody that has been average, at best, for their entire career and now all of a sudden have a career year. Not saying he won’t be great going forward, but, like you said, it would be ideal to get a player that has already proven to do it year in and year out. Trea Turner would be a great fit in the A.T.L.
Trea Turner would fit anywhere he’s the best all around offensive player in the world and he’ll cost a ton. Why would the Braves spend that kind of money on someone they don’t need? The reason Swanson is playing so well is the same reason many of those guys on that team are they’re comfortable they’re having fun and are part of a great team with exciting players. They need to sign Swanson and be done with it.
Let him walk??? Why, his numbers are far and a over better then these other “elite” super expensive SS and his chemistry with the team can’t be replaced. Your crazy.
What’s fair value you’d accept to keep Swanson? 15-20 per?
He will cost a lot more then that at the games premium position.
15-20M per? he’d get 25M easy on the open market.
You’re
Wrong. Nice try grammar police.
@Bmore he’s right about that, you’re is the right form that he should’ve used there. Not that it really matters
He was replying to OP, not you.
What if we test out Grissom at SS next year? Cuts down on costs at one position
I read an article on another site that floated the idea of bringing back Swanson and moving Grissom to LF. According to Baseball Reference, Grissom has played 0 games in the outfield since being drafted. I would still prefer giving this a try as opposed to bringing back Duvall.
Ram there are some seriously dumb comments on here. Some of these people don’t get it. To think the Braves should go out and spend $40M a year on Turner when they can have Swanson for half that is absurd. These clowns want to be the Mets and just go out and buy everyone regardless of the cost and then in a few years the team will be buried by stupid contracts. The Braves are signing guys to massively team friendly deals which will help them keep this group together and some of these fans want to jack it all up with a stupid contract. Don’t get me wrong Turner is awesome but the Braves don’t need him.
“some seriously dumb comments…” – I agree
“spend $40m a year on Turner”
I doubt Turner costs $40m and I’d be surprised if Swanson accepts an extension @ $20m/yr unless it’s a really long contract. He might end up signing around 20m/yr, but at this point, I think he tests FA if the offer is something like 6/120.
If Corey Seager is worth $32M a year I would have to believe Turner would command more than him. The numbers don’t lie. Turner has produced at every turn which is more than I can say for Seager. Correa is making over $30M as well if I’m not mistaken. Are either of those two guys on the same level as Turner? Nope not even close. Turner is gonna get close to if not $40M a year. If he gets less than Seager something is wrong with this sport because Seager couldn’t carry his jock.
Seriously dumb comments are the norm around here lol. You’ve got a lot of old-school fans who hate statistics and metrics, things they can’t understand.. You know, the kind of people who still think that batting average, pitcher wins, and fielding percentage are all that matter. And then you’ve got all the fanboys of individual teams giving their biased and uninformed takes. I just come read these comments occasionally for a good laugh.
Very true @Hammerin, when I look at a Pitcher that had 211 complete games and 53 shutouts in 521 career starts, and had a 2.86 ERA & 125 ERA+ over almost 4,000 innings, I actually think he earned and deserves credit for his 268 wins, but I am in the minority. If you haven’t guessed, my tribute is to Jim Palmer.
Dansby has his warts for sure, but he’s going to cost severely less than the other SS. The key is going to be getting him signed before the other guys.
If he leaves, they will use some combination of Albies and Grissom at short and 2nd.
That’s what I was thinking. Put Grissom at SS. Save the funds for the starting pitchers.
Will Swanson be offered more than $20M per season? I think a 6/$120M offer is more than fair for Swanson’s career to date performance. It’s funny how a lot of players have career seasons the year before they become eligible for free agency. Look at what Aaron Judge is doing this season too.
If Swanson or his agent feel like he’s worth more than $20M per season then offer him some opt outs after years 2, 3 & 4. One career year doesn’t justify paying him top of the market rates even at an important position like shortstop. If he can repeat or improve on his 2022 performance in 2023 or 2024 then give him the option to find a better offer. A win-win for both sides.
Your right it in 1 career year doesn’t justify. However it is a what have you done for me lately. And it’s also the free market system so Swanson just needs 1 out of the 30 teams to pay what he’s asking. I think way back to when the nationals were terrible but starting to trend upwards, but couldn’t attract fa. So they over paid I think a 7 year deal for jayson werth. He wasn’t worth it of course but just takes 1 team. Also it put league oin notice and they were a winning club turned ws champs
That’s not a win for Swanson at all. He will get 200 mil.
Can’t see a 28 year old taking a 6 year deal, that puts him back on the FA market at 34 and at that age he may be in steep decline. He will want at least 8 years. Can’t see $20M getting it done either, the teams losing FA SS’s, Red Sox, Twins etc and the teams saying they will get back into the FA market, Cubs, Orioles will pay more than that. 8 years $200M
Your payroll is going to be well north of 200 mil without adding anyone. I don’t see the Braves paying for a 30+ million dollar SS unless it’s Dansby.
What actual Brave’s fan wants a different SS than any of the ones in house right now? You have to be some kind of brain dead to want to go out and spend foolish money on another SS when you have a great one in house not to mention Grissom is there now too. Just ask the Rangers how it’s working out for them and that $325M ten year deal they gave Seager. The Braves literally don’t need to go sign any bats in the off season that lineup is set for a while. It’s a good thing some fans aren’t GMs or there’d be teams being run into the ground on the regular.
I wish every team was run like the braves. The braves are building a dynasty here, even if they don’t get Swanson
Well now this is assuming all these signings pre arbitration pan out.. so far so good tho. However the knee oin acuna seems to have sapped his slg this year
Acuna has been a lot better the past couple weeks. Seems like he may have turned a corner here
People don’t like throwing the word dynasty around teams who haven’t won multiple WS, but the Braves have built division winners again and again. Definitely one of the best run teams in the sport.
Well the Braves got about a 10 year window now to win 1 more so they meet your qualifications.
VonPurpleHayes;
There are no dynasty’s in professional sports anymore.
What can be done is sustainable contention. That is what most organizations are now after (as opposed to a 2-3 year “contention window”). But even with expanded playoffs there are a limited amount of teams that will succeed there. It’s a numbers game – 20 of the 30 teams aren’t going to be sustainable contenders for years at a time.
Looks like the Braves have an extended plan with position players (8 +/- yr window). The future short stop they go with, they go with because it fits this plan. Maybe it’s Swanson, maybe not. Heck, look what Houston did. They let Carrera (sp?) walk and plugged in Pena.
What does his contract look like? Trevor Story? Javy Baez?
Typically a legal document in black ink and a couple of pages long. Hope it helps
8 pages just for the UPC
mlbtraderumors.com/files/mlb-contract.pdf
More like 5 for $112.5m
I think your very close, maybe 5/120 With team option for 6th. Danby would probably take the money and run.
Sorry forgot the s.
I hope not. He’s been a below league average hitter aside from this year (.380 Babip) and the shortened 2020 season. Any team that gives Dansby $20m+ deserve to lose.
Very compelling argument and will be interested to see how you use your powers to make sure that if anyone pays Swanson $20m per you’ll make it so they’re perpetual losers.
Sorry you feel that way! If Swanson continues hitting well in the future I will write a formal apology to you for my mistake, and personally send you the best Girl Scout cookies money can buy.
Thin mints right? That’s obviously the correct option here
I’m hoping it is 8 yrs 120. That’s 15m per year flat rate…maybe go 8/145.
Still crazy that a veteran like Freeman got played by his agent. Inexcusable really.
Yeah either FF was lying or he is really dumb.
Isn’t he actually making less in LA than what ATL offered? Can’t keep the numbers straight.
They were comparable, but some of the Dodger’s money is deferred.
Remember taxes too. He’d make more sticking with atl
Freddie is an idiot. That’s been quite apparent for quite sometime. His best friend is Dan Uggla. They used to hit the bars in the city – there wasn’t a whole lot of scholarly conversations to be had in a bar w/ Mr Uggla. He’s also incapable of making any decisions on his own. His wife runs things now.
I like Freeman in general, but he’s seemed super phony the past year or so. The fake teeth, the crocodile tears, the agent debacle, the in-season pouting in 2021, etc.
@Smacky: It does feel like his wife is pulling the strings now; she has that generic LA vibe…
Why do people blame the guy’s wife? Do you have anything at all to prove she wanted to be in LA?
I’m sure some fans would place his covid infection in him being a phony or over dramatic as well
She owns a business in Beverly Hills.
He wouldn’t have known he was getting played at the time because Close never informed him of the Braves 140m dollar offer. I wholeheartedly believe that was deliberate. Close wanted 6/175 or 5/165 for Freeman, and 140 might have been enough for Freddie.
I know there’s skepticism as to why Close would jeopardize his career that way, but I’m not convinced it’ll hurt him with many players that he was going for every dime; and that will be Freeman’s last big FA contract, so he got his big cut off Freddie
Wouldn’t be shocked to find out the wife was also involved in Freeman going to LA
At the rate they’re going, they might talk him into 8 years/$6M.
In all seriousness I am guessing they get him for 7 years/$150M or so.
5 years 100m
He’s not as good as Alex Bregman who got 5 years 100m
Bregman was playing for the Astros, who limit their contract lengths. Supposedly they have 5 year maximums on most of their top dollar deals.
7 years goes through age 34 season. Age 34 is around when most guys drop off and he’ll be looking for at least 5 years in Free Agency, but he’ll want those extra 2 years anticipating his own decline and he’ll push for as much money and years as possible. iIf he’s gonna go to another team, it’ll be to the highest bidder and nowadays a guy having his kind of season is gonna ask for a minimum of $25M a year if he’s feeling generous, closer to $30M or more AAV if he’s going for absolute top dollar market value.
But hometown discounts seem to be the Braves’ specialty and they dole out contracts worth around or just over $20M AAV pretty regularly, which is enough to satisfy most guys, especially if they live in Georgia and pay Georgia taxes.
Bregman was not a free agent when he signed that extension. The same goes for Xander Bogaerts. Both Bregman and Xander agreed to early extensions at the exact same amounts (5/$100M), buying out their remaining arbitration years and a couple of free agent years as well. Xander (via Boras) was smart to negotiate the opt outs in his contract, which he’ll exercise this season for sure. Add Bogaerts to the list of FA shortstops Atlanta could sign if they let Dansby walk this offseason.
Do you think the Braves will have a 300 mil payroll?
Mantooth: The Braves—and AA—don’t deal w/Boras clients. The only two they’ve had recently were both dealt this season—Touki Toussaint and Shea Langeliers. Shortly after being drafted 9th by the Braves, Langeliers hired Boras to represent him. Wonder if the Braves even would have drafted him had he been repped by Boras pre-draft. Can’t see them going after any of the top 3 shortstops for both salary reasons and the Boras connection.
Bregman never hit free agency.
That’s apples and oranges lol. Bregman signed a pre arbitration deal. 3 of the 5 seasons he was under team control anyway. Swanson would be signing away 5-6 arbitration years… Vastly different situations.
Swanson is an unrestricted FA at the end of 2022. His last arb year was this season. He beat the Braves in his arb hearing to win his 10 million dollar salary this past spring. No more arbitration for Swanson.
Slip of the tong but that makes my point.. Swanson is signing away free agent years while Bregman signed away arbitration years. Those 2 have nothing to do with each other. Neither does Boras.. Touki was traded because he was a bust they no longer had room on the roster for. Shea to get Olson because he was our top prospect.
Point still remains that the Braves don’t target FA’s repped by Boras. I also didn’t say that Touki and Shea were dealt BECAUSE they’re Boras clients. I only mentioned that they were the only two in the Braves system that were repped by Boras and that they had been dealt……PERIOD. Btw—-Touki was probably dealt because they needed room in the upper minors for promotions after the draft. You didn’t make any points by totally mischaracterizing Swanson’s free agent situation as arb related.
Stop pretending like you know what’s going on or what AA;s thinking.. Those are the worst fans lol. The Braves don’t target many players in free agency anyway.. When they’re shopping it’s usually for smaller pieces. Has nothing to do with this fantasy you’ve cooked up about Boras. PERIOD! Does it make it more impactful that i said that!?!
I didn’t mischaracterize Dansby either.. It was a mistake. If you weren’t smart enough to look at that and see the point i made that’s on you. Everyone knows full and well he’s a free agent this Winter.
Having no Boras repped players on their 40 man or in their mil system isn’t a fantasy. It’s a fact. The “worst fans” are those who believe that everything they post is either a fact or a “mistake” when someone disagrees w/them. Want to “lol”? Lol at those who use “everybody knows” to make a “point.”.
Lmao… No i don’t think most people that disagree with me are dumb but I can tell you are because you couldn’t figure out what i was actually saying. Stop trying so hard to sell yourself.
This is about the same as I was thinking as well
100m or 150m?
No chance. They’re not paying that money for a 34,5,6 year old to play SS. Remember they refused to cave to Freddie wanting a sixth year when he’d have been a 38 year old 1B/ DH
Sign Trea Turner instead
Word on the street for some time now is that if they’re going big they’ll target Correa. I think the Riley extension and then the unimaginable at the time Harris II extension have put that rumor to rest
On the contrary, I think those deals make a bigger signing more likely. You pretty much have cost certainty at six or seven spots (depending on Grissom) for the next 6-10 years. I don’t think any of them will early more than $25 million in a year, either. The Braves are practically printing money with the championship, the park, and the Battery. And remember Morton, Rosario, Ozuna, Odorizzi, Jansen, Iglesias, and TDA will all be coming off the books in the next 1-3 years.
Personally, I’d rather give $40 million on a one-year deal to Verlander or deGrom than sign Correa to a $200+ million dollar deal, but that’s just me.
My absolute best and I mean “every possible effort” best offer to Dansby would be 5/115. I do know there’s a buzz going around Atlanta that once he’s married this winter, he and his wife would prefer to live closer to her side of the family who resides in Colorado, but who knows.
By buzz, do you mean no bodies on Twitter saying they’d rather be closer to Colorado?
Those deals don’t make it easier… Both are front loaded a bit and gave the players big raises over what they would have made in arbitration. it makes for a great long term deal because you keep the AAV low throughout it but just resigning Swanson and picking up Morton’s option puts the Braves at a 200 million dollar payroll for next year.
Trea will get 10/350 and the team he plays for will eventually have a 39 year old SS
Hope Braves keep him. It’ll Cost em a fortune and he’s got bust wrote all over him !
I’d rather they resign Swanson and trade Albies, unless they are open to use Grissom in left/right. Acuna should move to left because he is not very good there.
That albies contract is amazing. Even with regression/ injuries he is so dirt cheap and still worth it.
Which makes the return even better. Of course, I’d rather keep all three.
Fair point. Just then gotta hope Grissom is real and ready for the show and not just lightning in the bottle.
His history of plate discipline is too attractive for me. Braves offense has zero plate discipline. Grissom hopefully provides them with something they need. He is far better than Acuna and Albies in that department, at least based on his career minor league numbers. We don’t know for sure though, but Grissom is good. I’m a believer!
I like to see Grissom play the first order in the lineup. (plate discipline & speed)
Right now, he is better off on the bottom to take the pressure off. However, with that being said, the Braves won 3/4 against the overachievers just now because of him and Harris. Personally, I can’t wait for Acuna to be move down in the lineup.
Actually I lied. deGrom let the Braves win tonight because he wants to be with ATL next season.
Sure, he “let the Braves win”….You need to take your medication more often.
Maybe you should take yours for taking that comment seriously. Seriously relax, you take these comment sections too seriously.
Only one way to solve this.
Set the fight up. Meet at the chop house at 730 during the braves game.
No man, I am a Braves fan, this guy is a Braves detractor, constantly criticizing Acuna & Olson, wanting to get rid of Albies, wanting to sign Bumgarner. Hilarious.
Or use Grissom at SS. Swanson strikes out too much. Based on what I’ve read on Grissom and his minor league numbers he’s more contact that walks more and doesn’t strike out very much but the scouting reports say the power will come for him. Which he is already showing. Just need a decent defensive shortstop. If Grissom can handle the role then we can let Dansby walk. Fried and our other young starters are going to get expensive down the road. Soroka could finally turn out to be what we have expected after the 2 foot injuries. Plus we have to replace Morton at some point and if strider keeps it up he’s going to cost money too
Swanson strikes out sure, but he is probably the Braves best hitter in big spots since his debut. The latest huge hit was in the WS last season.
Ya, having Riley and Grissom covering the left side of the infield when they do away with the shift, is a great idea.
Sarcasm noted and agreed with Smoke, lol. That left side would be a gaping hole. Keep Swanson. Play Grissom in left field or use him as a super utility player. The Braves should give guys a day off once in awhile. Grissom looks like a solid utility guy that could get 400 ab’s a season.
Trade Albies? Thats hilarious. Grissom hasnt even been up a week and pitchers havent had the time to make adjustments against him. people are already saying they should trade one kf the best 2b in the league? Hahaha
I can’t believe the negativity I’m reading about Acuna on here. The guy is coming off a major injury but he’s starting to turn the corner now. When healthy, he’s a top 10 player in MLB. Grissom looks like a great prospect but some regression will come his way. He’s only had about 30 ABs in the majors so far. Leave Acuna where is he right now, both offensively and defensively. He’s righting the ship as we speak and he’ll be a force come playoff time. No need to risk ticking him off by moving down in the order. Let him play through it and it will pay off when it matters most. If Grissom continues to stay red hot after 100+ ABs then you consider moving him up in the order, but leave Acuna in the lead off spot regardless.
Players who have their best seasons in their contract year are rarely good signings. Look at Marcell Ozuna, Cespedes, Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Patrick Corbin, Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Robbie Ray, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Zack Cozart etc. There are some that definetly pan out like Gausman or Daniel Murphy. I’d rather pay more for consistentcy then go off of one good season
Multiple players on that list had pretty steady track records before they signed a big deal I mostly agree with what you’re saying but some of those examples aren’t the best for your argument
The Ozuna contract isn’t the albatross everyone cries it is – it’s two more seasons at $16m per. Last I checked Ozuna had the 3rd most HRs on the team.
Ozuna is unplayable so yes its a terrible contract and the majority of his home runs are in blow outs when hes facing AA relievers.
Hes been Adam Duvall this year, except hes probably one of the worst defenders in the whole major leagues
We all know what Swanson is more or less worth on the open market. Unfortunately for NL East rivals, we know they’ll extend Swanson for an under the market deal.
We don’t know this. He is from Georgia but not everyone wants to give hometown discounts. He’s probably worth $22M a year and he may be willing to give a small stay at home discount to the braves like $2M per season but many people don’t go around telling their employers I’ll take a paycut like that.
I was looking only at the hometown part of the reason for a discount. I was looking at how the Braves have been able to extend all of their guys for bargain prices.
Not two months before he hits the open market.
Why not keep an eye on Grissom and see if he could handle SS next year and let Swanson walk? Just saying. Swanson is good, but he’s not “great” and he’s going to regress through that contract significantly. Why not save a few $ and try Grissom at the role next year. Use the funds on bullpen and pitching. Fried isn’t going to come cheap. And if soroka makes it back and turns into what we have seen of him then he’s going to be expensive too.
Because the Braves cannot be that stupid to make the same mistake twice. The Braves won the WS and been successful the last half decade because of Freeman and Swanson (among others). They already made the mistake of trading for a tier below Freeman first baseman (who is not very good). They can’t make the same mistake again, unless they sign one of the other SS free agents. Why do that when you can keep Swanson, put Gris in the outfield (ideally) and just focus on what the team really needs, starting pitching.
Olsen is a better defensive 1st baseman than Freddie and last I checked Olsen also has just about as many walks and has more HR. The only difference in Freddie and Olsen are strike outs and batting avg. and Obp. Olsen is doing just fine for 1st base. Olsen will improve YOY. He is getting acclimated to the NL. But Olsen is a better defensive 1st baseman.
How you know Olson will improve? He never had an MVP season and even in his best season, he never matched what Freeman has done. There is no way anybody can convince me Olson is somehow better than Freeman. I bet the Braves will be in first by now if Freeman was with the team, just off his skillset alone. The Braves don’t need another low average, high strikeout guy. The Dodgers offense was considered to be elite prior to this season. Freeman comes in and he undoubtedly becomes their best hitter.
No he’s not.
Olson is hitting .250, strikes out a ton, and does not dictate the opponents’ entire bullpen strategy like Freeman did. He’s not comparable.
Olsen is actually better than Freddie Defensively and last I checked they are very close on walks and Olsen has more HR.
Freddy is better defensively and I miss Freddy, he was a leader. I think one guy on here had it right, Freddy got played or he’s just dumb. I don’t think Freddy is dumb, just think he was not very smart if he wanted to return. I would have told my agent to make it work. Olsen has more power and for the money, we got a better deal.
But you traded high end prospects when you didn’t need to. You probably get a high end starter with those prospects and still had a MVP caliber player.
the Braves traded from a position of strength. They have Contreras, catcher of the future. Gave up prospects to get one of the best 1st basemen in the league. He is young and will even get better. Look at Freddies stats at Olson’s age. This was a win all around. Hate it that Freddie let his agent screw him, maybe Close will do better with Swanson.
Would be the cherry on top of the braves new clubhouse ice cream.
Great game!!!
Very good one
A career year on a contract year = an overpay by someone.
Yeah, that’s what the Braves are known for. Overpaying lmao.
I would hope that AA looks at the intangibles that Dansby brings to the team. I also hope Dansby is unlike Freddy, in that greed got the best of him. The Braves wanted him back and offered him more than he ended up getting from the Dodgers once you add to the deferred money. Still can’t believe he was not aware of what was going on. I would have told my agent where I wanted to go and for him to make it happen. I’m happy with Olsen though, has more power but not as good defensively as FF was
I like to see Grissom play the first order in the lineup (plate discipline & speed)
Braves need to set a hard number aav and stick to it they have leverage with Grissom here and producing. If you csn keep it 15 to 17 mil a year then ok but anything over that then you tender him and get the draft pick.
I’m wondering if MLB FO’s will be looking at the results of last years excessive (in both AAV and years) contracts given to the name FA SS’s. Correa with his injuries and opt-outs; Seager and Semien that did little to move the needle with the Rangers; Baez whose contract has been a complete disaster and was very probably a big reason that the guy that gave it to him was fired; and Story playing 2B with a .221 / .289 / .423 slash before getting hurt.
Were I the Braves FO I’d try to sign Swanson to a reasonable contract. If he thinks that there are more FO’s out there that didn’t learn from the Twins, Rangers, Tigers, and Red Sox and wants big money, then I’d do what they did with Freeman when they pivoted to Olsen – I’d call Cleveland about Amad Rosario. The man is still only 26 years-old, currently making $5m, in arbitration for 2023, and can be a FA in 2024. Sign him long-term as they did Olsen. Cleveland has 5 young SS’s on their roster, they’ll be fine. They need a couple of SP’s. See what you can do.
We already have Grissom in house. Why even do this in the first place. We really don’t have much trade capital for starting pitching to part with since most of them are currently on the roster. Muller but he’s probably not going to get you much.
Grissom and Albies do not have the arms to play SS at the ML level.
Like them both, but they’re 2B’s.
As for Grissom – as with any rookie, watch what happens the next few weeks as opponents get a read on him. All teams now have people breaking down video.
If Grissom pans out, move him to LF
What’s wrong with the Twins Correa deal? They paid the going rate for top end talent at a premier position but only locked in for 1 year and a max of 3. Three tried going the cheap route the year before with Simmons and that crashed and burned.
Just watched the Mets lose to the Braves tonight. Mets looked horrible and they are banged up heading into Philly w/o any pitching. DH on Saturday with spot starters Williams and Peterson and a huge ? on Sunday could be the debut of Bhutto LOL.
Tonight’s lowlights: Grissom scoring from 1B on a slow grounder to CF. after reaching 1B on a play that the new 3B should have made. Nimmo where were you slowly running in with a weak throw on top of 3 K’s leaving 3 LOB. Lindor trying to steal in the 9th inning and Pete Alonso pops up to CF. Ball falls in and Lindor runs back to 1B and is forced out at 2B. You need to know what is going on there. LOL
Yes, After losing 3 or 4 in Atlanta I’m awaiting the Mets fans that rubbed i t in when the Mets beat the Braves in NYC.
August 18. Lots of baseball to play for all the contenders.
As for the Mets, they so depend on Max and Degrom to win, that if/when they get into the playoffs an opponent may only have to beat one of them in a game to take the series.
Some of those Mets fans shoot their mouths off. I will never shoot my mouth off about the Mets because they are a good side, and that was a tough win and a tough series to win. The Braves still have an uphill battle playing the Astros and also the Cardinals to stay in the hunt to win the division. The worst thing you can do is disrespect your opposition, and that is what some trashy Mets fans do, day-in and day-out on this site, ‘you can put it in the books’. Some of these Mets fans scupper away like rats when they lose and hide in the corner. Those bums are down at the hospital now asking for their feet to be extracted from their mouths..
When the Mets became the first team to force a 3 game losing streak on the Braves, predictability of baseball made it obvious the Braves will get their revenge and be the first team to beat the Mets in the East. The Mets luck is running out. They will lose to the Phillies as well because they are due to beat them too. The Mets are due to go on a losing streak. It will happen at some point.
With that being said, the difference in game 3 was Braves bad defense (Grossman and Acuna). Game 4, Baty’s error was the difference albeit the baserunning didn’t work out for the Mets in the 9th. Funny how the Mets once again almost made it a game in the 9th via their soft hits and bloops. This time, luck wasn’t on their side. These are the games the Mets win early in the season. Not happening anymore.
It was scored a hit, so no error on Master Baty, I hate to upset your false narrative. Grissom would have probably been safe even if he fields it cleanly.
You literally won on soft hits and bloops and then say that’s what the Mets do.
@Mets696822 How do you even make that comment. Some of your ‘hits’ don’t make it out of the infield, yet here you are talking about bloops and soft hits..Fact-The Mets have something like 150 infield hits thus far in 2022, and 23 or 24 of them are against the Braves, and you want to talk about bloops and soft hits and luck.
Some of you Mets fans are close to the worst fanbase, you lost, and you lost the series 3-1, you’re lucky Odorizzi pitched and served up meatballs and BP for the first few innings, and even with that you could only breathe in the final inning because the Braves got within a run.
Now we are lucky again. The object of baseball is to hit it we’re they are not. You Braves fans can’t get over the Mets ability to hit the ball the other way for a hit. It doesn’t need to go 120mph to go through someone that isn’t there. Keep complaining about how soft the Mets hit and keep being out of position for a ball slapped past you.
Well CB Bucknor handed deGrom a win last week
Come on now, as a Braves fan even I can say CB Bucknor didn’t hand that win to deGrom. Bucknor is equally awful with every team.
Swanson is having a great year, but you’re also talking about a guy who in the five seasons he has played 100 or more games, has just one with an OPS+ above 100, that being this season. 2017 through 2021, Swanson hit just .246/.316/.407 with inconsistent defense at shortstop.
If you look at Dansby’s history, he’s had a lot of nagging injuries that degraded his offensive performance. He’s been healthy the last couple of years, and his offense has improved. The Braves should try to re-sign him, probably for 6/100-6/110. If they don’t, they’ll go cheap at SS and avoid the other high-priced guys.
Pay the man. As solid as a SS gets.
Swanson is not going to command Turner, Correa, or Bogaerts money even on the open market. He may prefer to stay in Atlanta on a 4 or 5 year deal. I like what Anthopolous is doing here because unlike when Ruben Amaro locked up the Phillies core he has bought cost certainty and payroll flexibility while giving Braves fans a fun group to watch for years to come
Turner will be top of the market, followed by Bogaerts. I’m not convinced Dansby wouldn’t be far off of Correa in an open market situation, though.
I would guess 6/110 with opt outs and incentives that can raise the value to 6/140
That is not the going rate for quality shortstops.
His ceiling at the moment is peak Elvis Andrus. His career WAR comes no where close to the quality shortstops you speak of.
@soxfan1 Good point. Andrus had his best season at 28 and was otherwise a very ordinary SS (with a cool name) from age 25 on.
That’s Swanson. He’s a 2 win SS having a career year who’s on the wrong side of 28. Why anyone would want to pay more than 4/64m for that is beyond me.
Someone will, of course, hoping that his 2022 is his new normal, and that his newfound durability will continue, but they really, really shouldn’t.
I mean, is no one bothering to notice that his peak seasons, 2020 and 2022, were / are propelled by freak BABIPs that are hardly the result of a new approach–aka where’d that go in 2021?
He’s a nice player having a freak year. Good for him. Don’t be the sap who pays for it.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with these negotiations. The Braves have been pretty impressive with how they have signed serious talent to team-friendly long term contracts. But I wonder if a team can reach a point where they have too many long term deals in place, even at a good value.
@dclivejazz No, not really. Not if they’re as you say, ‘at a good value.’
I suppose it’s possible to go overboard, sign $320m AAV worth of players covering 17 spots on the 26-man roster for, say, $220m a year, on average (let’s call them the… Mets). That leaves you with a powerful team, but nine spots still to cover and perhaps very little money to do that with.
But assuming minimal prudence is exercised, you might have your 10 stars signed for a total of $150m AAV (let’s call them the Braves), and perhaps $50m left to flesh out your lineup. Any team that can afford a $200m payroll would like to have that problem, assuming their stars included players like Acuna, Riley, Harris, et al. If those players combine on average for 40 WAR, your base is something like 88 wins, and you’re adding from there.
Could be, probably is, another case of positioning and spin coming from the Braves front office knowing they’re within weeks of losing Swanson. “We tried!”
@LordD99 Or just common sense.
Swanson’s the kind of guy the Braves rarely sign. They don’t wait until a player nearing 30 peaks to make their best offer and therewith pay the absolute premium. They didn’t do it with Freeman. They won’t do it with Swanson.
SS is also one of the easiest spots on the diamond to get 2 wins from, from very young players. A great athlete who either can take a few walks or slug a bit and keeps the position warm until you develop a homegrown star there, isn’t hard for a team like the Braves to develop. Fielding peaks when players are in their early 20s, so why pay a huge sum for wins beyond the 2nd win at SS? Who are the great, expensive, FA shortstops teams were delighted to spend hundreds of millions on, compared w all the disappointments there?
Cleveland’s a wonderful example of this, getting not one but two middle infielders from the Mets’ dumbbell front office, in Giminez, all of 23, at $700k for the year, and Rosario, who today combine for 9 rWAR, or almost twice what Lindor is contributing (at $34.1m a year) while having what for Lindor is a terrific year. And he’s still being completely outclassed in this deal.
Sweet jaysus. Imagine where the Mets would be had they kept their senses. They’d have an additional 4 wins this year, and another $30 million to spend (for the next decade, as well). They’d be the Dodgers, in short.
The Braves offered FF basically the same contract he got from LA. FF got a premium deal for his position and age. I’m not convinced the Braves wouldn’t offer a deal to a 5 year younger Swanson. FF wasn’t “approaching his 30’s” either so comparing his age to Swanson’s isn’t valid. Not saying they’ll offer him Seager or even Baez money, but he could get a 6 year 120-140 mill offer from the Braves and he’d finish it at the same age FF will this season—–34.. (FF turns 34 on September 12.). The free agency of Turner, Correa, and Xander B. will probably suppress Swanson’s opportunities. Only 2 teams I think might be in play for him are the Cubs and Philly if they don’t get one of the top 3.
The braves have committed to failure for years to come with all these extensions. Philly and the Mutts will dominate them until our grandchildren are grown
Bro please tell me you’re just trolling because you possibly cant be as dumb as you sound. The Phillies? They aren’t even in the same universe as the Braves when it comes to organizational competence. Nick Castellanos 5 years at $100m? Now that’s securing the future isn’t it? And Realmuto’s 5 year $115m contract when there were no other bidders? Brilliant.
Every great play that Grissom makes, you know that there are mixed feelings on Dansby’s part. He knows that the Braves are looking at Grissom as there future shortstop. And if so, the Braves could use that money that would’ve been spent on Swanson, to be now spent on deGrom.
@Joeyg2033 The Braves have never and, under current ownership, will never sign a player whose variance and salary are as enormous as deGrom’s. They didn’t even pay to lock Freddie down, after winning the WS, or the year after he won the MVP.
They aren’t signing an even older, far more injury-prone pitcher like deGrom to something like 4/$150m. Charlie Morton is about as high as they go: 1/$20m for a near-All Star caliber pitcher to flesh out the rotation.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. Say deGrom goes 15 starts with an ERA of 2.00, and the Mets get bounced early so we don’t have the issue of deGrom being abused all the way to the WS. If he’s healthy for the time being, doesn’t he have to sign an incentive-based deal, with perhaps a $15m annual guarantee and a huge payout for every start above, say, 10, so that if he gets 25 starts he makes $45m? Who’s otherwise going to give an old pitcher 4/150m when he may never make another start, or may simply be Pedro from 2005 on?
Even if he’s great for half the 2022 season, he missed a year, he had TJ, and that was a decade ago, meaning the transplanted ligament is dealing with reduced blood flow and all that portends. They’re already pushing back his starts. Caveat emptor.
Swanson is finally been healthy for a full season and his production at the plate has shown it plus adjustments he has made earlier in the year. I figure the Braves will be around 6 year market maybe around 120 million not much more than that. Based on other deals Braves have done recently I would not be surprise if they had team option for 7th year with some kind of a buy out.. He will be 29 going into next season as a SS he may not be able to field the position as well when he reaches 34 to 35 year old range.. The bat may still be there. The Braves will be getting a new local TV deal at the end of 2027 season so that will increase their revenue to pay players based on fact Ted Turner left them with a terrible TV deal before he sold team and for way too many years.