Juan Soto’s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.
The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.
The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.
The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.
Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.
Voice of Reason
The Nats will not trade Soto at the deadline. They will wait until the season is over to get max value as they will have many more teams making offers as opposed to right now. You only get 1 chance to trade a generational talent and you better get a freaking haul of a return.
Nationals are going to be sold and the last thing the brand new owners want to do is be linked FOREVER to trading away a Hall of Fame talent like Juan Soto. Lerners gave Rizzo permission to take a strong offer and trade Soto. The value of Soto to contenders is 33 percent higher now than in the off season. Three runs at winning a World Series > two World Series runs. Soto will be traded within the next 31 hours.
I actually think that the Nats will keep him and try to extend him once the team is sold. He said one of his three reasons for rejected the $440 million offer was the question marks about the ownership. If they can solve that the new owners would most likely be willing to address his other two concerns (AAV and distribution of the funds throughout the life of the contract). They can’t afford to walk away from a talent like Soto.
500 million is in the table by any team trading for him. But 500 million is not 500 million in places like New York or California because of high taxes. I wish the Detroit Tigers actually had a good GM because they have the young controllable assets.
Or the last thing the new ownership wants is a 13 year albatross contract around the franchise’s neck.
The longer they hold on to him the less they will get. Specially considering the chances of teams extending him.
If the Nationals are offered Dominguez, Peraza, Waldichuk, Sweeney, Schmidt or German, and Pereira and they don’t make that trade, they are making a Colossal mistake. That would be by far their best offer. Peraza and Waldichuk are ready to play now. Dominguez and Sweeney are about a year and a half away.
They will get a better return now than after the season cuz now a team will be getting him for 3 pennant runs instead of 2.
It’s doesn’t matter if they can get more now if teams aren’t willing to give them more now. Soto may not get traded bc the price maybe too high currently for teams liking.
That’s why they’ll take the best offer. They’re not going to get more *after* the season.
I don’t see how they can get more later. If SD, LAD, and StL are the main suitors, he has to be worth a lot more for three playoff runs than two playoff runs. And I doubt there will be more teams, since the universe of teams with a big enough farm, and a big enough payroll, is rather small.
They will get more later by allowing the acquiring team a window to negotiate a contract extension.
No team is giving up a ton of assets only to be in the same place as the Nats are in now.
They’ll take the best offer when they are in a position where they have to…. there isnt a market for meeting the current asking price while the Nationals hold all the leverage to simply hold Soto
There isn’t a competition to acquire him because the Nationals can simply say no and continue to ask for more… Giving up the farm while compromising the present roster for Soto is not a aggregate win for most teams. Maybe the Yankees or Dodgers can afford something like this?
Joe Brady— I agree with you!! Just looking at who the players are speculated to go for Soto makes me wonder why the Nationals haven’t snapped up that deal????
From what I’ve read — plus being a Cardinal fan for 60 years, the Cardinals have NEVER offered this much of their Talent for anybody in their History!!
If I’m not mistaken—- 2 current Cardinals everyday starters (Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson), The #6 prospect in all of MLB, (Walker), Left-handed starting pitcher, (Mathew Libertore), plus 2 other high prospects.
That’s a quality group young athlete’s of whom all of them could probably start on a different team besides the Cardinals!!!
Personally I think that’s too much for Soto. But—— we’ll see what happens!!!
I can see every one of these prospects and everyday starters, and more, in the Angels starting lineup immediately after a trade for Ohtani.
They aren’t offering Walker. He’s off the table from everything I’ve seen and heard. They aren’t trading Gorman, Carlson, AND Walker, not even for Soto. And honestly, if thats the ask, I hope Mo comes out and says that. Cause that would be asinine. I’ve heard Winn is in the deal being proposed though. And not LIberatore, but Graceffo, Burlson etc.
1. They could have done that now. They don’t have to wait until the offseason to do that.
2. If Soto were willing to sign an extension the Nats wouldn’t trade him they would extend him.
3. The surplus value from a Soto trade is in the rest of this season and the 2 after it. Anything after that will basically be market value.
Walker’s ceiling is basically what Soto is now.
My guess is rangers for Jung, foscue, white, Carter (or Gutierrez), bratt and roby. Reds got 4 prospects for Castillo so soto gotta be worth 6
And Maybe not headliner nats are looking for, but a slew of teenagers w high floors make up for that
Also, they paid arod so they’ll pay soto and tx is an easy place to sign and play long term.
That was also 20 years ago and they just dumped a ton of money last offseason. I’m sure they’d love to get him like everyone else, but not sure they’re willing to pay another enormous salary along with depleting their minor league system.
just click bait sport writing because more than likely he doesn’t get traded. Nationals want a ton of value for him and most teams do not have enough for that price. So he will go into the off season and be traded at the time.
Why so many teams forbidden to trade for him now? Your logic makes zero sense. Any team that wants him in the offseason is making proposals now, because there is no guarantee he will be available in the off season. Plus squiring him now will generate a bump in attendance, viewership and team gear sales for the rest of the year.
Why not now? Teams currently contending cannot afford to create holes in the lineup for the stretch run. Nationals want ready or near ready players back. Many of those are being counted on by the team they are dealing with. Easier to make them Available in the off season. Trading a young starting pitcher who is currently on the MLB staff is much more difficult now, then after the season.
@stymeedone who besides you says the Nats want ready or near ready players back? And why would any team trade one of their core players when they are trying to contend?
Nats will trade Soto if they get offered equal value. They won’t trade him if they don’t. The Nats have that leverage and the other teams know it. That’s part of the reason there are only a few suitors.
There is no nickel and diming. If the Padres or Dodgers or whoever want Soto, they need to pay 101% and be happy with it. Their farm system will be eviscerated and it will probably cut into their everyday roster. That’s the price.
That’s why the Cardinals will eventually drop out. They might have a lot of high-level prospects, but they aren’t going to trade more than one or two for any player.
Walker is virtually untouchable. Carlson, Gorman, and Winn won’t be the *added* to any deal. They’ll either be the lone big trade chip or they won’t be traded at all.
Libratore, Burleson, and many others may be added in a package but the Cardinals will definitely nickel and dime other teams instead of just dealing from the top of the deck.
There is the dreaded luxury tax that also come into play.
If they wait they get less value for Soto. That is a given. The question is will Rizzo still be GM then or will new ownership fire him?
For real. People need to stop saying that the Nats will get more for him in the offseason or that there will be more teams in the bidding during the offseason. It’s literally not true. 3 potential championships with Juan Soto on your roster will always always ALWAYS be worth more than 2. And a team that underperformed this year but wants to contend in 2023 and 2024 isn’t going to wait until the offseason to trade for Soto and risk someone else trading for him first.
Chaotic or no activity at all lol
Once teams realize they can’t get super star Jankowski I mean Soto, it’s going to be a trade storm.
You do realize don’t you that Trent Grisham is hitting .192/.287/.337 as the starting CF for the Padres and if they simply claim Jankowksi they are likely to get .250/.370/.337 with much better defense and speed ?
Nick Senzel is hitting .251/.307/.321 as the Reds CF
I hope you realize Jankowski is a vastly superior CF option that is available on waivers for teams not getting good production in CF
Phillies were 17-13 when Jankowski started last year. 65-67 without him
Cam, did you bother to look at Janks stats before you typed?
He was a fan favorite during his time with Pads and I thought he was a good fit for a 4th of / bench piece before he signed with Phillies but seriously dude, those aren’t his career numbers or expectations.
Also, you see GG next to Grisham’s name for defense – not there for Jank.
Speed, yeah but, Grish isn’t slow either.
Need to be a little more realistic.
Not saying that there isn’t room for improvement in CF over what Grish has showed in 2022 at the plate though.
I like Tatis there in about 2 weeks.
Jankowski hit .252 with a .364 OBP just last year with regular playing time
His BB% and Chase Rate is 98th percentile now
Those early years with the Padres he was young and hadn’t developed the plate discipline yet
His sprint speed right now is 92nd percentile, faster than Grisham from two years ago
Do you have any idea how any of this works? But of course not
You clearly don’t know how any of this works either. 157 plate appearances is not regular playing time. Anyone with should length hair or below is automatically a fan favorite. Scrappy players who have to rely on 130% max effort to make up lack of talent are automatically fan favorites. But neither of those two mean your a valuable player much less a player that actually adds wins. Over the last 8 years he’s net you 2.5 total WAR. That is practically the definition of a replacement level player. Btw, Grishams career war in just 4 seasons is 3.
Nobody digs Jankowski, but you. Maybe he can play for your local adult league soon, and you can worship him there?
Cards should be top partner nats are looking for w future all star walker headlining the deal, but no way stl is interested in soto. They are going to spend the prospects it’s gonna take nor will they ever dish out a 400+ million dollar contract
Cards. Cards. Cards. All day all the time.
Phillies are ahead of them in the WC. With Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson making decisions as opposed to John Mozeliak and Oliver Marmol I figure the Phillies go into the playoffs. Segura and Harper are coming back…..far better than players the Cards can trade for. The Brewers know how to win. The Cards best hope is that the Padres fall apart again in the last month, and that’s entirely possible especially if Preller makes one or two of his now legendary late-season trades.
Phillies lack the system depth to get the deal done. But don’t lack the cahunas to pay some one 400 mil.
Phillies have some great SP in their system that could get the deal done, BUT it would be absolutely foolish of them to trade their only good farm pieces for Soto. They aren’t a good fit.
What deal do the Phillies need to do?
I didn’t mention one.
Every team in baseball can get the deal done. I’m not sure any team is so bereft of prospects that the top-5 or so is insufficient.
That said, the l/t Philly OF is Schwarber, Castallenos & Harper. Unless one of those three, or Soto, can play CF, then there is absolutely no fit for Soto.
He turned down his only chance to get to $400mm. He’s looping 3 years off his next contract by choosing to go to free agency. He’ll be 26 when he hits free agency and will be lucky to get the Bryce Harper contract and he’ll need to win an MVP between now and then to get that.
guest, Soto will make $50-60M the next two seasons, so that can be subtracted from the $440M he turned down. Would he top an 11-year, $390M deal as a free agent? Most likely yes.
@Big whiffa- hearing $540 million will be enough for an extension for Soto. We’ll see.
You Can Put It In The Books
Soto to the Padres, book it.
Just as long as your sure.
Just as long as his what is sure?
You Can Put It In The Books
Ohtani to the Mets. Book it.
Ohtani isn’t going anywhere. Book that!
Mets don’t have the players to obtain him.
I doubt this trade gets completed, but the Mets do have the young talent to get a yr and a half of Ohtani. Alvarez is the number one prospect in the game by some outlets, and consensus top 5. Baty is rated top 20 to 30 by most outlets. They have 3 to 5 more prospects who rate as quality secondary pieces, that have been on top 100 lists, or could be in the near future.
@Just as long as your sure.
I don’t want the Cards to trade for Soto. He isn’t the help they need to win this season.
Yes, he is. (This is my opinion) there isn’t a pitcher available that can score runs and scare the opposite team’s pitching.
Cardinals have lots of holes. Other than Goldschmidt and Arenado (and maybe Edman) they have no offense. Their pitching is average and injured. They do have a top 5 defense which has helped them keep games close.
After the deadline is over, we’ll see stories that show 90%-plus of these rumors were false. Happens every trade deadline and offseason.
Think we will have clarity on Soto today. The teams interested him need time to pivot elsewhere.
The only team that can really afford to wait it out is the dodgers because they have the smallest need.
Padres and cardinals have other options that they will need to move on if Soto isn’t happening soon. They can’t wait until the last hour and miss out on other players.
That’s a fair point Simm.
Yep. Example, if the Pads don’t get Soto, they could quickly use those prospects to flip around and make an offer for any one or combination of Contreras/Happ/Robertson. Cubs would love to have some of those prospects.
Agree with your analysis. I continue to believe the Padres are the most motivated team to get him and will offer a package that exceeds what Dodgers, Cardinals and others are willing to pay. Soto to Padres by tomorrow, in part, for the reasons you offer Simm.
As a Dodger fan I do not want to see Lux or Dustin May traded.
The Nats will be shooting themselves in the foot if they don’t deal him, because the Padres and Cardinals (AKA the 2 teams with the most to offer) will make other deals using the prospects the Nats could’ve had. It’d be a horrible move for them to not deal him and end this saga.Agreed that it should come to a head today.
I’m with you Norcalblue. I hope the only activity on Soto by the Dodgers is to force the Padres to up their offer and drain their farm system even more.
Well, I think it’s fair to say that we accomplished that goal! Ha
I’m a Dodgers fan too, and I don’t want to lose them either, but Soto to SD would be bad news. Worth more just to keep him away from them.
I would never want to do a deal to keep a player away from the opponent. Even with Soto the Dodgers are a better ball club. That said, Soto does fit a need for the Dodgers though as Muncy’s and Bellinger’s struggles has created a need for another lefty bat in the lineup. Now, that bat doesn’t need to be as great as Soto’s but hey if he’s available and can be obtained at a rational cost the Dodgers may bite. Will be interesting to see where he lands and at what price.
I put the odds of Soto being moved before the deadline at 30/70.
The market looks fairly limited atm with the Padres and Cardinals reportedly being the two most serious bidders. Both teams could pay to make a deal happen now, but with 2 full seasons of control there will be a lot of suitors this offseason.
Wild guess: Soto goes to Padres or Cards by midnight or he’s not moved until the offseason. Teams that aren’t in the Soto market will get the trade train rolling later today.
We’re going to know once the first big deal is announced. If it’s like Montas to STL or Contreras to SD then they’ve pivoted and he’s not moving.
Dodgers or Padres.
Yeah that is the most likely scenario. Nats dream us getting those to teams in a bidding war. Padres prob are more desperate and offer the bettee deal.
Though the padres are also the more likely of the 2 to pivot elsewhere.
I think the Dodgers swoop in again. May, Miller, Pepiot, Pages, Busch. Dodgers keep Lux and Cartaya.
Mike Piazza Pie
As a dodger fan I hope they don’t get him. I’m starting to think they will though. They played Mookie at 2B yesterday and could slide Soto into RF on those days. Play Soto in LF and Mookie in RF on other days. Keeping the top prospects is more ideal to me but they’re also facing a 40 man crunch at the end of the season.
It seems more likely that Friedman is willing to move some combination of Busch, Vargas, Cartaya, Pepiot, Miller, May or Lux. I just pray it’s not all of them. Especially May and Lux
In nurse follars
Who wants to win most badly? Mets and mariners. Neither has the right mix of prospects. To pull a trade like this off more than two teams need to be involved. For example if Washington wanted a top five player from the guardians, the orioles and the mariners could Seattle pull off three major trades to land Soto?
I haven’t seen any package so far that I would accept for Soto. So maybe the first domino never falls and not much happens as a result.
Teams will only wait on Washington so long and will pivot to other options before 6pm.
You haven’t seen any packages yet. If you have, I’d be curious to hear what the Padres had to offer.
If the Braves had re-signed Freddie, they would still have some quality prospects and would at least be in the conversation.
No. Washington traded for catcher Ruiz last year and if Oakland considered Pache a top 100 prospect they might have been the only team that did.
The Yankees Prospect Propaganda Machine has not worked on the Nats! Fancy that. I don’t imagine it’s worked on anyone in the industry if I’m honest, but maybe there is a sucker somewhere. Volpe is a nice prospect, but he’s not generational by any means. I suspect the guy the Yankees REALLY won’t move is Jasson, and for good reason.
Any capable scouting dept. should be able to filter out the media noise and narratives and stick with the facts and data analysis. I don’t recall anyone claiming Volpe being a generational talent. Anything more than being an above average MLB SS is a bonus. The same applies to Dominguez who has a longer road ahead before hitting the big show.
Seamolic, I really hope you grow up one day and stop pushing this tired narrative. It’s beyond sad
I actually think Seamaholic nailed it. WAS isn’t buying the prospect hype (or playing coy games to get a better offer) and that’s their own prerogative. It truly sounds like the Yanks need to up their offer if they’re serious about Soto. Big day for all teams, let’s see how the show goes!
No one claimed that Volpe was generational; the consensus is that he is an excellent prospect who has the chance to become a star. I don’t think they want to move either Volpe or Dominguez, which is why they wouldn’t be in on Soto (and also why they backed off of Castillo). If the Yankees want Soto they can just get him in free agency in two years. As a Boras client he’s almost guaranteed to hit the open market to generate what will be an all-time bidding war.
How crazy were those all time bidding wars for Harper, Machado, Seager, Story, Bryant, Simeon, Correa, etc…. All those teams two years ago didn’t sign players two years ago so they could get into the crazy bidding war for a once in a life time SS class. The media fantasy always fall far short of the reality when it comes to these contract and trades for that matter.
@seamaholic 2-The Yankees are moving neither. They are both generational talent.
Sooo same as it was
Nat’s don’t think Volpe is as good as others think? Lol thats why your farm is cheeks. Can’t tell a difference between premium talent vs avg talent. Volpe is going to be a future star. Don’t k much for a young hitter in AA, shows good signs of plate discipline at such young age, has solid power and great speed. For a middle infielder? Yea he’s a beast.
Eh. Look around a bit outside the NYC bubble. There are plenty of shortstops around who look about the same at the same age. Volpe is only average defensively and may eventually shift to 2B. Good hitter, not great. He may explode into a star — he has the time to do so — but he hasn’t yet. You should forgive those of us who have been burned believing the hype about Yankees prospects before. The ones that actually make it tend to be the less hyped ones (because they’re not trying to trade them).
Cards getting Soto doesn’t make sense. They’re not signing him long term and you’ll decimate your farm system. They clearly need pitching. Their rotation is awful. They’re better off going after Montas/Lopez.
Prediction is the padres but I dont think the dodgers are going to let that happen. Just like with max and trea.
The Cardinals have double the prospects and MLB ready players than anybody in the league. DeJong’s trip to the minors revealed the incredible amount of talented young baseball players. What the team lacks is a ‘dude’ a left handed hitting one. and yes 2 decent starters. But Soto is a priority.
Actually, the Cardinals system is top heavy, with a flood of offensive hitters nearing the majors (Burleson, Gomez, Winn, Walker, etc.) and guys like Gorman and Yepez already there. They almost HAVE to make a move, if not now then in the offseason.
It’s a good argument though whether Soto or someone like Montas is the better get, factoring in the larger price for the former and the greater need for the latter.
I see Odorizzi going to St Louis.
I think the Dodgers are in it to drive up the price and attempt to ruin the Padres future.
Who cares if you sign him long term? The point is to win a championship in one of the next 3 postseasons. If you can’t do that with Soto you shouldn’t be trading for him.
I’m going to guess Soto to the Padres. I think they got their ego checked losing on Max Scherzer last deadline to their division rivals. Given that, they’re probably the Nat’s best chance at someone willing to over bid to get the deal done.
Watching the game yesterday, I was reminded of the Giants pursuit of Suzuki. Another player that the Giants couldn’t land. Ohtani another. Harper, Stanton, etc..
it would be silly not to take advantage of Carlson and Gorman if the are on the table because they are bankable and marketable already with a lot of goodwill with the media. They are damn good young ballplayers too. exciting.
Cards going to get Trout ….. book it.
Cards going to get Trout book it.
Cards going to get Trout. Book it!!
You will get banned from this site at some point soon. Book it!!
Ok ok I booked it!
Crazy in saying hard pass here. Get controllable pitching and give Judge the money!!! Take advantage of a win now window by the moves you make TODAY and show Aaron the $$ love and he will sign. Roll the eye rolls, World Series or bust this year! I want Pablo Lopez, Fulmer and Soto. If we have enough at the end, get Thor!
“Win now” is acquiring Soto and Montas at all costs worrying about Judge’s contract after winning a WS while the farm is left barren. So which one is it you want?
Rizzo will pass on anything the Padres, Yankees, and Dodgers offer. They simply don’t have any of the type of premium prospects Nationals would be interested in
The Cardinals have Jordan Walker, who Rizzo likes but has some doubts/reservations about, and outside of Josh Baez they don’t really have any other prospects he’d be interested in. A package centered around Walker and Baez will not get it done
That leaves only the Mets. They have two high end prospects he’d want in Francisco Alvarez and Alex Ramirez. In addition they have Baty, not as lucrative as Ramirez and Alvarez, but a solid prospect that he’d enjoy adding in with Ramirez and Alvarez
Mauricio and Vientos is a pass but they do have other prospects (Ziegler, possibly Allan) that they could add in
The Mets have to be seen as the only team, at this point, who have the prospects to get Soto
The question is whether the Mets would do it. If it is true Boras said Soto wants to go to the Mets, I do think Rizzo would trade him in division to the Mets
Most likely though they wait until the off-season, especially if the Mets pass. None of the other teams in play have the type of transcendent prospects they’ll be looking for
So guys like Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, Volpe, Hassell, Wood, etc. are not “premium” prospects? Bold statement.
No, not at all. But let’s be clear. They’re good prospects it’s just that they’re not the type of “can’t miss” superstar core pieces he’s going to be looking for. They have the potential to be solid major leaguers, and maybe even all-stars, but they’re likely not going to be strong core pieces
Hassell and Miller are the best of that bunch you mention. Rizzo will be totally uninterested in a deal centered around Volpe. Any deal where any of those players are the centerpiece *won’t* happen
Woods is actually a better prospect in a lot of eyes then even Hassell. Go look at the dudes stats and profile. He is going to be near the top of every ranking a year from now. Dude is 19.
Abrams who people might have different opinions on was the number 6 prospect in baseball 2 months ago. Merrill from the padres will also be another guy shooting up the charts a year from now.
There are very few tatis type prospects in baseball. Rodriguez was the most recent. Teams don’t ever trade those players. Nats have to buy in bulk to get the return they want.
Every year they keep him the less they will get. Nats don’t have all the leverage because they are the ones unable to extend Soto.
Padres, dodgers and cards can always pivot to other players to upgrade their team.
For example for the cost of Soto the padres could turn and get montas, Contreras, happ, mancini and then some for less then Soto. While Soto is great 1 player isn’t how you win baseball games.
@simm, the future stars (ie the Devers, Bellingers, Buehlers) that are in the top 100 prospects right now are:
Alvarez, Grayson Rodriguez, Espino, Henry Davis, Taj Bradley, and Nolan Jones
And I’ll give an honorable mention to maybe but probably not Volpe, Leiter, Miller, and Ford
And I say Nolan Jones with a lot of hesitancy. Im high on Jones but there’s maybe some makeup issues with him where he can’t break out and be the guy
Wood is not a legitimate high upside prospect. Anything can happen but you can say with a lot of certainty that Wood won’t pan out
I was going to say the same thing about the Padres. The Nats aren’t interested in Abrams, Gore, Hassell or Wood? The Padres are trying to destroy Abrams value by having him face ML pitching at age 21, but he is still top-10.
Thought I heard on the broadcast last night that Abrams has hit over.300 the past month. Could be wrong.
Yes he has but this dude thinks you have to hit 300 from day one. Abrams has had very little minor league time. Was only on the team because of the tatis injury. Guy is 21 with incredible tools.
These couch gm’s. Look st 50 at bats and decide if they are good.
Abrams has hit over.300 the past month.
.294, but with a 7/0 K/W in 37 PAs. “Destroy” was way over the top, but you can’t learn to hit without going thru the minors first. He had a 36/15 K/W in AA and 25/8 in AAA. FWIW, I started having these discussions with Angel fans three years ago, and I think they’ve finally come around to the idea that Adell was rushed. Now I have the same discussions, with the same fans, about Marsh.
I think Abrams is clearly better than either of those guys, but he needs a full year in AAA. A full month won’t do it.
Look st 50 at bats and decide if they are good.
I’m not sure if that was directed at me, but I look at everything. Some couch GMs look at his ranking and think he can simply skip AAA. It seldom works that way.
The MLB trade values simulator suggests that Alvarez, Ramirez, Baty, Mauricio, and Vientos (yep, all 5) are almost enough to reach Soto’s value. Almost.
Those simulators are ridiculous. It’s silly to think a computer can see and project talent
Right! They and everyone else just don’t understand the value of Travis Jankowski. If only there was someone on this site that has ran thousands of simulations of the past 16 years to tell us how baseball needs to be corrected.
What are you talking about? Cartaya, Miller, Stone, Pages, Vargas and more in LA; Hassell, Wood, Abrams in SD; those aren’t “premium prospects”??? Both systems are also far deeper than the Mets’, and it’s not particularly close.
Abrams isn’t really a good prospect. Literally hundreds of other bust prospects also are “toolsy”
As always there’s a chance he becomes a star, but probably more like an average or below average major leaguer
Same with many others. Loaded with tools and ability but they aren’t able to develop a good hitting approach
Abrams is *likely* one of those
Mets have 4 top 100 prospects.
Yankees have 5 top 100 prospects.
Cardinals have 5 top 100 prospects.
Padres have 3 top 100 prospects.
Dodgers have 6 top 100 prospects.
Only the Mets are in their division…
@camden. Does Rizzo call you when he wants to evaluate trade packages? Has he told you his priorities other than what we all know: near major league players–either first year in the majors or soon.
As in, if you go and look at each team’s top 30 prospects, there are projections as to when they are likely to be ready. With possible exceptions, he will only take players projected for 2022 and 2023. That’s is more or less what he has said publically.
Everything else is pure speculation and you are trying to second-guess a baseball lifer who is known for his trading ability.. ONLY Rizzo knows how many and which players are enough.
Juan Soto is why teams should be allowed to trade draft picks.
If draft picks immediately had benefits it would be great. But since they do not it would be a waste and nothing to push deals to get done.
Adding picks (and the concomitant pool money) to a package of prospects helps a team supercharge a rebuild, and brings more teams into competition for a player. Whatever package DC gets, they could have also said “give us your top three picks as well”. You don’t think that has value?
One of the GMs said it would take a Herschel Walker level return to get Soto. Without being able to trade draft picks, there are only a few teams that even have the prospects/young players to swing a deal.
Those who thought that not attaching Corbin would increase the amount of suitors are vastly undervaluing Soto. The MLB Trade Values simulator is probably the best tool we have to get a sense of Soto’s value and it is a sobering experience to try to match up a trade.
The only GMs that have gone on record have both said that the White Sox trade of Sale would be the closest comparison to the trade of Soto.
Who was included in that trade? Top 10 overall prospect, a guy that was at back of top 100, and two others in Red Sox top 30. If the Nationals are asking for much more then that then that is why no trade is happening.
Pads Fans back
Is that Herschel Walker pre-moron or post moron
Cards going to get Trout!!
along with Ohtani and Verlander……maybe even Judge!
Their farm system is loaded. The cheap owner just has to open up his wallet.
Like the old R&R song to much talk,not enough action
The freakin’ Dodgers. If Soto goes anywhere (which I doubt) it will probably be there because somehow they still have enough high quality prospects to do the deal.
Nationals are probably overvaluing their little DH.
Color me hoping the Nats hang on to Soto.
Dodgers make the most sense. They are willing to spend too prospects and willing to give out huge contracts.
Is anyone seeing his numbers this year? He’s not that good.
You mean his .315/.495/.616 July?
Oh wow, that’s pretty damn good…
What is his OPS+ and wRC+? Betting both are right around his career numbers.
Yes he is.
Soto will not be traded this season, period. All this talk is merely sports writers trying to gin up interest in a lack luster trade season.
Nats should deal Soto because a $500+ million contract would be a bad investment for the Nats to do.
I’m starting to doubt that there’s going to be much trade activity at all before the deadline.
The Padres prospects are not equal value to the Dodgers.Outman the Dodgers number 16 prospect had threes hit in his debut.Some of the Padres top 5 Abrams 231,Ruiz 222,Morejon ERA 6:75,Gore 4 plus likely injured.
Lol at 3 hits and he is great. The dodgers traded some high prospects for betts and sherzer all of them are below avg players this year.
I can’t even remember the last prospect the dodgers traded that doing great. Go back 5 years ago and you have Alvarez.
While several the padres prospects traded have been very good or better. Bednar, turner, freid, France, quantrell. Just to name a few. You can’t judge prospects based off 100 at bats. Mariners Rodriguez would be a bust if that’s the case, same with trout.
Get real with your small sample size takes.
Mike Piazza Pie
The Dodgers have 6 top 100 prospects and one of the best player development systems in baseball.
If you can’t recognize that Simm, you don’t know baseball.
The Padres have had a high bust rate on many top prospects and rush their guys through the minors, which hides a lot of their flaws. LA makes guys stay at each level longer and face adversity before they get to the majors.
Someone else mentioned the Herschel Walker trade. The Vikings were in position to dominate the NFC for the next decade before that trade, and instead became a wild card also ran. The Cowboys managed to win a Super Bowl off of the trade.
At these prices, whoever gets Juan Soto is mortgaging their franchise’s future. Dumb idea.
Cards understand 1 position player can only do so much to go all in. This is more of a Padre type splash trade with Rizzo getting them to bid against themselves.
Please, Cashman, do NOT go for Giancarlo 2.0 and give a massive contract to a glorified DH. In fact, despite Giancarlo’s difficulty staying healthy, he’s a better fielder when he’s healthy than iron glove Soto.
Get a starting pitcher and a reliever, dammit.
Soto is light-years ahead of Stanton
Have you looked at “Mike” Stanton’s stats in his 20s? Soto is a step or two above at the same age. Stanton was also a better fielder than Soto.
Shut up Steve
It’s a LIE that Nats will get less this off-season. So much made about “generational talent”… either you believe that and Nats get just as much this winter, or you actually don’t believe it and Nats must get less. Soto isn’t magically getting worse in December. No reason the Nats ask comes down.
He doesn’t get worse but his control gets worse. 3 playoff runs vs 2. That’s 33% worse specially for teams that can’t or won’t pay him 500m to extend him.
Yes, 100% his value will go down. Will he still be worth a lot, of course. Just not as much as he is right now.
He’s not being traded unless it’s for Trout and Ohtani both and even that may not be enough
The Dodgers won’t let Padres out bid them,never ever. If their is any other team it’s the Cardinals
I’ve been following baseball for 81 years and have over 50 years combined in the show and front office. When I tell you to buy your Padres Soto jersey, you buy it. It should be available by tomorrow evening depending on which child labor factory mlb uses.
The Dodgers will never let the Padres out bid them,never ever. Only other team is Cardinals and I believe they will use a couple of prospects for pitching and pass on Soto
I wonder what the sale value of the team is with Soto versus without Soto, or if that is even a factor when selling a team. I imagine they might hang onto Soto and let the new owners decide to trade or lock him in to a long term deal. If I was the buyer, I would rather buy a team with Soto on it and then try to retain him to build around.
500 million is in the table by any team trading for him. But 500 million is not 500 million in places like New York or California because of high taxes. I wish the Detroit Tigers actually had a good GM because they have the young controllable assets.
I truly hope the Dodgers don’t jettison their future for a .243 hitting DH. Let the Padres make that mistake.
The article says the Padres have a deep farm, but that isn’t what I’ve read. They do have some top prospects, but Preller has traded away a lot, half the top 30, in previous years. MLB.com which had their system at #2 at one point now have them at #17. Bleacher Report has them at #16, and Keith Law at #15. They still have the prospects if they want to really deplete the farm, but if anything, their farm lacks depth.
Friedman going to swoop in just like he did with Scherzer and Trea last year! Soto a Dodger, bank it!
It makes no sense for the Dodgers to go after Soto. The Dodgers need relievers not another outfielder that is only going to be a DH and is also performing poorly at the moment. Not saying that Soto is not a great player but to give up a lot of great prospects while waiting for Soto to get back in the game is ridiculous when the postseason is around the corner,
Ohtani for Soto, Angels get “the next Trout” and the Nats get a big name draw that will put fannies in the seats in D.C. for the new owners. Occam’s Razor.
You know, I have been thinking the same thing. The Angels could even expand that deal to include money and Rendon so they can clear enough salary to sign Soto.